The Feasibility Study Report On Lagos Thermal Power Plant Expansion Project in Federal Republic of Nigeria
The Feasibility Study Report On Lagos Thermal Power Plant Expansion Project in Federal Republic of Nigeria
The Feasibility Study Report On Lagos Thermal Power Plant Expansion Project in Federal Republic of Nigeria
On
Lagos Thermal Power Plant Expansion Project
in Federal Republic of Nigeria
March 2016
Marubeni Corporation
Contents
The Federal Republic of Nigeria (hereinafter referred to as “Nigeria”) has the largest population in Africa,
with approximately 182 million people. According to the latest economic statistics, Nigeria overtook South
Africa to become Africa’s largest economy. The Nigerian economy has been steadily growing, with the
largest oil production and natural gas reserves in Africa, as well as strong growth in non-oil sectors. As for
the power sector, however, because power supply facilities have not been properly maintained, upgraded or
newly constructed in the past, the supply capacity is overwhelmingly insufficient for the potential demand,
causing frequent planned outages and accidental outages in the entire power system.
In such circumstances, the Government of Nigeria has promoted the National Integrated Power Project
(NIPP) and privatization of the power sector. However, in order to respond to the present potential
electricity demand and the electricity demand that is likely to increase sharply in the future, an expansion of
electricity facilities and streamlining of the existing gas turbine and thermal power generating systems are
urgently needed. As a part of the expansion of electricity facilities, efficiency must be improved through
construction of a gas-fired thermal power plant and a large, high-efficiency gas combined cycle power
plant.
This Project will carry out a basic survey on the present state of the existing power supply facilities and
plans to expand the electricity facilities. It will also carry out a feasibility survey with an eye to formulating
a plan to introduce a high-efficiency gas combined cycle power plant that utilizes Japan’s technology to the
maximum extent and to receive a construction order for such a plant.
In Nigeria, the potential electricity demand considerably outstrips the supply capacity, and planned
outages are conducted on a routine basis. Therefore, factories, commercial facilities and general households
use non-utility generation facilities to prepare for outages and make up for daily power shortages. The
maximum power output grew at an annual average of 4.6% in 2009-2016, but the output was a mere
5,075MW in 2016, which is about one third of the peak demand of 14,630MW. The power consumption per
person in Nigeria is extremely low compared to countries of the same level of GDP per capita: for example,
it is roughly one tenth of that in Vietnam. It is even lower than that of countries with lower levels of GDP
per capita, such as Ghana and Mozambique.
The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) forecasts that the electricity demand (on the basis of
generated electric energy) will continue growing at an annual rate of 5.7% until 2050. Therefore, electricity
supply facilities must be strengthened urgently to respond to the present shortage and future growth in
demand.
The country has a total of 25 power plants, consisting of three hydropower and 22 thermal power plants.
The rated capacity is a total of 11,675MW. However, due to trouble, maintenance of the facilities and other
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reasons, the available capacity is 7,140MW, or just 61% of the rated capacity. Moreover, the power output
is restricted by restrictions on the transmission capacity and gas supply, and therefore the actual capacity is
only about 3,000-4,000MW.
The project site must satisfy necessary requirements and will be selected from four power plants, that is:
(i) Egbin Thermal Power Plant, a conventional dual fired system (gas and heavy oil) to which Marubeni
Corporation delivered power plants made by Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems, Ltd. (MHPS, former
Hitachi, Ltd.); (ii) Calabar Power Plant, a simple cycle gas turbine plant; (iii) Sapele Power Plant, a simple
cycle gas turbine power plant; and (iv) Ihovbor Power Plant, a simple cycle gas turbine power plant.
The requirements that the project site must meet have been set forth as follows with the assumption of
constructing a gas turbine combined cycle power plant that has a rated output of 1,300-1,900MW.
The seven items above have been evaluated for the four candidate sites as shown in Table 3.1, and it has
been concluded that it will be the most appropriate measure to construct a gas turbine combined cycle
power plant on a site adjacent to the Egbin Thermal Power Plant.
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Item Egbin Calabar Sapele Ihovbor
5 The site is near an area Lagos Calabar Bennin Bennin
where electricity is in ◎ ○ ○ ○
demand.
6 The site is far from any ◎ ◎ ○ ◎
densely-populated area.
7 The site is free from About 350t of cargo About 230t of cargo About 230t of cargo About 230t of cargo
any restrictions on the was transported for was transported for was transported for was transported for
transport of heavy and construction of the construction of the construction of the construction of the
large cargo. present plant. present plant. present plant. present plant.
◎ ○ ○ ○
Overall evaluation ◎ △ △ △
Figure 4.1-1 shows the accumulated power generation costs of the four methods. For the first
40,000 hours after the commencement of operation, the accumulated cost of a simple cycle gas
turbine power plant (Type-1) is the lowest, but the accumulated costs of a gas turbine combined
cycle power plant (Type-2) is the lowest after about 50,000 hours. Therefore, this Project will adopt
gas turbine combined cycle power generation (Type-2).
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8,000
7,000
6,000
USD/kW
cost:USD/kW
5,000
4,000
累積コスト
Accumulated
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000
Operating
運転時間 time:Hour
hours
Simple Cycle GT Combined Cycle GT Gas Thermal BTG Gas Engine
Figure 4.1-1 Accumulated Power Generation Cost of the Power Generation Methods
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Item One on One*×4 Two on One**×2
Output approx. 91% ◎ Output approx. 91% ◎ Output approx. 83% ◎
6. No. of generators 4 generators ◎ 8 generators △ 6 generators ○
7. No. of lines for 4 lines ◎ 8 lines △ 6 lines ○
330kV
8 Breakdown of 1 Output 75% ○ Output 75% ○ Output 75% ○
GTG
9. Construction cost 100% ◎ 110% △ 103% ○
10. Simplicity of O&M ◎ ○ ◎
11. Capacity of a Approx. 450MW ◎ ◎
single generator is ×
300MW or less
Overall evaluation × △ ○
Notes *: One Gas Turbine on One Steam Turbine
**: Two Gas Turbines on One Steam Turbine
Based on the results of the comparison made above, this Project will consider two types of
compositions as candidates to be built on idle land east of the Egbin Thermal Power Plant: that is,
four blocks of a one-on-one multi-shaft gas turbine combined cycle power plant (hereinafter referred
to as “CASE 1”) and two blocks of a two-on-one multi-shaft gas turbine combined cycle power plant
(hereinafter referred to as “CASE 2”). The new power generating facilities will be constructed in the
manner where they will not rely on the existing power plant, but will use some components or
extended facilities of the existing plant, such as the existing gas and water supply facilities, auxiliary
steam system, fire-extinguishing installation, and 330kV switch gear.
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4.4 Generated electricity delivery facilities
Table 4.4-1 shows the transmission lines that the Egbin Thermal Power Plant uses to deliver
generated electricity. If a combined cycle power plant is constructed, Case 2 produces an additional
output of 1,754MW under the site conditions, compared to Case 1, which produces less output. In
order to confirm if the transmission lines are subject to overload, power flow analyses have been
performed in three cases: with no additional transmission lines, with two additional 330kV
transmission lines, and with four additional 330kV transmission lines. As shown in Table 4.4-2, the
first case (with no additional transmission lines) causes no overload, but the maximum load reaches
93%. This suggests that if any trouble occurs in a line, the remaining lines will be overloaded,
therefore an additional two or four lines should ideally be laid down. To secure higher supply
credibility, the construction of an additional four lines should be recommended.
4 Egbin Power Plant – Oke Aro Substation – Ikeja West Substation 330kV 2
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Table 4.5-1 Entire Project Schedule (Case 1)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
1 Feasibility Study
EIA Study and Report
2
EIA Approved
3 EPC Proposal and Evaluation
4 Contract Negotiation
Contract Signning and Work
5 Period ∆
6 No.1 Block-SC COD ∆
7 No.1 Block-CC COD ∆
8 No.2 Block-SC COD ∆
9 No.2 Block-CC COD ∆
10 No.3 Block-SC COD ∆
11 No.3 Block-CC COD ∆
12 No.4 Block-SC COD ∆
13 No.4 Block-CC COD ∆
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Chapter 5 Economic and Financial Analysis
According to export financing standard loan conditions by JBIC, the fixed rate of 3.72% will be
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applied. (This rate is the sum of the fixed rate at the time of the loan approval of 1.03% (as of January
2016); a premium prior to agreement of the export contract of 0.20%; and a risk premium of 2.49%.)
Borrowing period: 4 years of a moratorium, and a subsequent 12 years of principal equal repayment
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As for the power sector, the supplement to the EIA Act requires the following projects to perform an
EIA. This Project falls under the category "combined cycle power generation" and must perform an
EIA.
・ Thermal power generation: 10MW or larger
・ Hydropower generation: Dams with a height of 15m or higher and the total area of auxiliary
facilities with area 40ha or larger, or the area of a water reservoir of 400ha or larger
・ Combined cycle power generation
・ Nuclear power generation
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forecast the impact of the Project. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the actual state of affairs
through a field survey in future and to build a system to implement and manage appropriate measures.
As for the natural environment, the construction of an additional power plant is expected to have an
impact on the ecosystem and biota in and around the project site. In particular, adverse effects would
increase without any appropriate measures against the pollutant sources cited above. To see the impact
on hydrology, as well as topography and geology, the present state of affairs must be clarified through a
field survey in future.
As for the social environment and other factors, traffic from construction vehicles and construction
work will temporarily have adverse effects including noise and vibration that affects communities near
the project site, as well as the regional economy and infrastructure. However, to again assess these
impacts in detail, the present state of affairs must be clarified through the field survey that covers these
communities. Based on the survey results, countermeasures must be taken to, for example, remove
impediments to economic activities, ease local traffic, and restrict construction time.
policies
None
Continuous environmental
An increase in gas emissions monitoring, introduction of
Air quality ● including NOx will affect the air facilities satisfying emission
quality. gas standards and appropriate
maintenance measures
Continuous environmental
monitoring, introduction of
An increase in effluents will affect the
Water quality ● facilities satisfying effluent
water quality of the lagoon.
standards and appropriate
maintenance measures
Anti-pollution measures
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Forecast and
assessment
Countermeasures and
Category Check item Reasons for forecast and assessment
Unknown
Small
Large
policies
None
facility inspections
No activity will be taken to affect
Sediment ● None
sediment.
Protected No protected area exists near the
● None
areas project site.
The pollutant resources cited above Continuous environmental
Ecosystem will have an impact on the ecosystem monitoring and various
●
and biota and biota in and around the Project countermeasures against
site contamination cited above
Natural environment
state
No cultural heritage property is
Heritage ● None
located near the project site.
Measures to alleviate the
Buildings, stacks and other structures
impact on landscape, such as
Landscape ● of the power plant may spoil the
forestation in and around the
landscape.
project site
Ethnic
minorities Neither ethnic minorities nor
and ● indigenous people reside in or around None
indigenous the project site.
peoples
Working Compliance with any manuals and Interviews with workers of
●
conditions NERC rules on working conditions the existing power plants
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Forecast and
assessment
Countermeasures and
Category Check item Reasons for forecast and assessment
Unknown
Small
Large
policies
None
and and occupational safety is unknown. about working conditions,
occupational and confirmation of
safety compliance with manuals and
NERC rules
Healthcare, Confirmation of the present
safety and state and the possible impact
The present state of communities near
security of ● on communities near the
the project site is unknown.
local project site through a field
communities survey
Confirmation of the present
state including
Traffic from construction vehicles
communication near the
will temporarily have adverse effect
Impact during project site through a field
on the regional economy and
construction ● survey, removal of
infrastructure. Noise and vibration
work impediments to economic
from construction work will have an
activities, consideration of
adverse effect.
local traffic, and restrictions
Other
on work time
Measures to Whether any training is conducted or Understanding of the present
prevent ● not for workers to prevent accidents is state through a field survey,
accidents unknown. and training of workers
Expansion of monitoring
items including social aspects
Whether monitoring on social aspects
Monitoring ● and continuous
is conducted or not is unknown.
environmental monitoring
that is in progress
In Nigeria, the potential electricity demand considerably outstrips the supply capacity, and planned
outages are conducted on a routine basis. Factories, commercial facilities and general households use
non-utility generation facilities to prepare for outages and make up for daily power shortages. Non-utility
power generation costs twice or nearly three times more than grid power, resulting in increased costs
incurred to manufacturers, adverse effects to the invitation of various industries and an increased financial
burden on citizens. Moreover, economically vulnerable groups cannot afford non-utility power generation
and therefore have to accept an uncomfortable situation of frequent outages.
Nigeria has a total of 22 thermal power plants, but 15 plants are inefficient simple cycle gas turbine power
plants. These need to be replaced by high efficiency combined cycle power plants for more efficient energy
use with less global warming gas emissions.
Under these circumstances, the Project to strengthen electricity supply capacity and introduce a high
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efficiency power generating system will be extremely important for Nigeria’s power sector, and have a
positive impact on the country's economy and society. The facility to be constructed under the Project will
be fueled by natural gas, but appropriate measures can avoid and alleviate considerable adverse effects on
the environment. At the same time, the construction work will require many workers and therefore generate
a positive impact on society in the form of effects such as job creation.
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Attachment Drawings
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