Garfield Ahlgren PDF

ICOTS 2, 1986: Joan Garfield and Andrew Ahlgren
Dl FFICULTIES IN LEARNING PROBABl LlTY AND STATISTICS

Joan Garfield and Andrew Ahlgren
University of Minnesota
In t h e l i t e r a t u r e o n education i n p r o b a b i l i t y a n d statistics, d i f f e r e n t issues

o f d i f f i c u l t y h a v e been addressed r a t h e r i n d e p e n d e n t l y by i n d i v i d u a l s from
t h r e e d i f f e r e n t disciplines: college s t a t i s t i c s f a c u l t y , specialists in p r e -
college mathematics education, a n d psychologists. A f a i r l y complete b i b l i o g -
r a p h y o f a l l t h r e e categories appears in G a r f i e l d & A h l g r e n (in p r e s s ) .
T h e l i t e r a t u r e p r o d u c e d by teachers o f statistics a t t h e college level pri-

m a r i l y complains t h a t s t u d e n t s in i n t r o d u c t o r y "service" courses a r e n o t
l e a r n i n g w h a t t h e y should a n d can n o t a p p l y w h a t t h e y d o l e a r n t o u n f a m i -
l i a r problems. T h e r e have been calls f o r new approaches t o t e a c h i n g s t a t i s -
tics, such as problem s o l v i n g o r microcomputers, b u t t h e r e has been l i t t l e
empirical research t o v e r i f y i m p r o v e d s t u d e n t l e a r n i n g achieved by t h e
recommended approaches.
I n t h e area of precollege mathematics education, t h e l i t e r a t u r e contains a

m i x t u r e of t h e following (Garfield & Ahlgren, i n press):
I . statements a b o u t t h e need f o r statistics i n s t r u c t i o n ;
2 . d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e r o l e statistics can p l a y i n school c u r r i c u l a ;
3. suggestions f o r how t o teach statistics;
4. d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s s t u d e n t s have i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g concepts
in p r o b a b i l i t y a n d statistics;
5. d e s c r i p t i o n s o f i n t u i t i v e ideas t h a t s t u d e n t s a l r e a d y have.
( T h e i n t u i t i v e ideas a r e o f t e n called "misconceptions" b u t sometimes, in

r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t some a r e a p e r v a s i v e mode o f t h i n k i n g i n humans, a r e e f -
f o r t s by mathematics educators t o u n d e r s t a n d d i f f i c u l t i e s s t u d e n t s have i n
areas r e l a t e d t o p r o b a b i l i t y a n d statistics, such as rational number skills,
p r o p o r t i o n a l reasoning, a n d problem s o l v i n g a b i l i t y .
Most o f t h e actual research o n d i f f i c u l t i e s i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g p r o b a b i l i t y

appears in t h e w o r k o f psychologists, who i n i t i a l l y seem t o have seen t h e i r
t a s k as i d e n t i f y i n g common e r r o r s i n p r o b a b i l i s t i c reasoning. (Some o f
these researchers also t a u g h t statistics courses a t t h e college level t o s t u -
d e n t s i n education a n d p s y c h o l o g y a n d experienced f i r s t h a n d t h e e f f e c t s o f
students' f a u l t y t h i n k i n g . ) More recently, t h e i r i n t e r e s t has been less i n
t h e e r r o r aspect a n d more i n s t u d y i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p r e v a l e n t i n t u i t i v e
preconceptions.
Research i n science education may b e f u r t h e r along i n s t u d y i n g misconcep-

tions, a n d o f f e r s some i n s i g h t s . Researchers i n physics, chemistry, a n d
b i o l o g y education have f o u n d t h a t misconceptions p e r s i s t despite i n s t r u c -
answer are. The artificial contexts typically considered i n instruction

(e.g., balls and urns) often may not support any questions t h a t have any
real meaning f o r the students, and so offer no opportunity f o r reorgan-
izing t h e i r thinking. (For example, most students appear t o have l i t t l e
interest i n series of events, and focus instead on yes/no outcomes of
single situations. )
Implications f o r Teachinq
The instructional implication of these distinctions is t h a t teachers must de-

termine where t h e d i f f i c u l t y lies before t h e y can help the students. If the
concept is abstract and intrinsically difficult, the students will need more
experience with it, including exposure t o different representations of it. If
t h e students lack requisite mathematical skills, remedial work will be neces-
sary f i r s t . If the students have i n t e r f e r i n g intuitions, they should be e x -
ercised rather than suppressed, and t h e practical superiority of the new
conception should be demonstrated i n contexts t h a t the students care
about. And if the questions themselves are misinterpreted, sufficient time
should be given t o students t o talk about their t h i n k i n g t o allow detection
and revision of their interpretations.
The multiplicity of possible underlying reasons for students' difficulties

greatly complicates the teacher's task. Yet proceeding without diagnosis
almost surely will be fruitless. What is needed f i r s t is t h a t teachers them-
selves be well informed. They should correctly understand the concepts
and be aware of the different sources of d i f f i c u l t y t h a t students may have.
Teachers should also listen, a great deal more than t h e y now do, t o their
students' explanations of t h e i r answers. Students will have t o be encour-
aged t o express their ideas i n a non-threatening environment, with the
teacher and with one another, so t h a t t h e i r ways of t h i n k i n g can be reveal-
ed. Eventually research may lead t o diagnostic tests f o r concepts i n proba-
b i l i t y and statistics, b u t f o r the present we know of no other means than
interview and discussion.
Implications f o r Research
The research, f o r i t s part, should expand i n scope. Not only does much
remain t o be learned about how students actually think, b u t we know al-
most nothing about how they change t h e i r t h i n k i n g . Longitudinal studies
are needed t h a t document the steps t h a t occur i n increasing sophistication
of statistical reasoning - when it occurs. As p a r t of this, the t r i a l of new
curriculum should include penetrating evaluation of how students' t h i n k i n g
is (or is not) changed.
The research should also become more cross-disciplinary and collaborative.

Cross-disciplinary influence is already occurring: some mathematics educa-
tors have begun t o see their task as something like the clinical psycholo-
gists'; some philosophical analysts have begun t o analyze the logic of i n t u i -
t i v e human thought as well as t h a t of mathematics; some test makers are
t r y i n g t o c r a f t instruments t h a t not only determine correctness b u t also
unveil viewpoints; and some psychologists have begun t o devise their i n -

vestigations in ways that illuminate issues of instruction. Progress might
be more rapid, however, if there were more real collaboration - if psychol-
ogists, educators, and mathematicians (perhaps even social anthropolo-
gists) were to design and interpret research together.
Selected References
Garfield, J., & Ahlgren, A. ( I n press). Difficulties i n learning basic con-

.
cepts i n probability and statistics: Implications f o r ~ e s e a r c h Journal
f o r Research i n Mathematics Education.
Hope, J. A., & Kelly, 1 .W. (1983). Common difficulties with probabilistic
reasoning. Mathematics Teacher, 76, 565-570.
Huck, S., Cross, T., & Clark, S. (1986). Overcoming misconceptions

about z-scores. Teachinq Statistics, 8, 38-40.
Johnson, N. (1985). Role of dynamic microcomputer graphics i n teaching

the meaning of random sampling and the central limit theorem. (Doctoral
dissertation, University of Minnesota. )
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.) (1982). Judqment under
uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press.
Mevarech, Z.R. (1983). A deep structure model of students' statistical mis-

conceptions. Educational Studies i n Mathematics, l4, 415-429.

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ICOTS 2, 1986: Joan Garfield and Andrew Ahlgren

Dl FFICULTIES IN LEARNING PROBABl LlTY AND STATISTICS

In t h e l i t e r a t u r e o n education i n p r o b a b i l i t y a n d statistics, d i f f e r e n t issues

T h e l i t e r a t u r e p r o d u c e d by teachers o f statistics a t t h e college level pri-

I n t h e area of precollege mathematics education, t h e l i t e r a t u r e contains a

I . statements a b o u t t h e need f o r statistics i n s t r u c t i o n ;

2 . d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e r o l e statistics can p l a y i n school c u r r i c u l a ;

3. suggestions f o r how t o teach statistics;

( T h e i n t u i t i v e ideas a r e o f t e n called "misconceptions" b u t sometimes, in

Most o f t h e actual research o n d i f f i c u l t i e s i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g p r o b a b i l i t y

Research i n science education may b e f u r t h e r along i n s t u d y i n g misconcep-

answer are. The artificial contexts typically considered i n instruction

The instructional implication of these distinctions is t h a t teachers must de-

The multiplicity of possible underlying reasons for students' difficulties

The research should also become more cross-disciplinary and collaborative.

unveil viewpoints; and some psychologists have begun t o devise their i n -

Garfield, J., & Ahlgren, A. ( I n press). Difficulties i n learning basic con-

Huck, S., Cross, T., & Clark, S. (1986). Overcoming misconceptions

Johnson, N. (1985). Role of dynamic microcomputer graphics i n teaching

Mevarech, Z.R. (1983). A deep structure model of students' statistical mis-

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