Indofood Sukses Makmur

(INDF IJ)
Undemanding valuation amid rising positive
sentiments
Positive sentiments arise as most concerning factors come out
As most of the concerning factors (e.g. Indonesia’s 2Q20 weak GDP figure and 1H20
Food and Beverage financial results) have come out, we anticipate for rising optimism in the market
going forward. For Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ) particularly, its share prices
Company Report rallied quite significantly in the market last week (+6.6% WoW). We believe that there
are at least four positive sentiments that support INDF’s share price performance: 1)
August 10, 2020
INDF’s resilient 1H20 financial performance, which we expect to continue in the
future; 2) positive sentiments from ICBP due to its impressive 1H20 net profit
achievement and more clarity on its acquisition plan (read more details in our ICBP
(Maintain) Buy report dated August 6 titled “ICBP: Rising optimism as future prospect remains
intact”); 3) INDF’s relatively undemanding valuation; and, 4) the market’s optimism
Target Price (12M, IDR) 8,700 on economic recovery as most of the concerning factors have been known.

Expect 1H20 resilient performance to continue

Share Price (8/7/20, IDR) 6,875
INDF booked 1H20 net profit of IDR2.8tr (+11.7% YoY), which implies 2Q20 net profit
Expected Return 26.5% of IDR1.4tr (+20.3% YoY, +2.5% QoQ). In the meanwhile, we note that INDF’s 2Q20
revenue was quite resilient, supported by the recovery of Agribusiness segment.
INDF’s 2Q20 revenue came in at IDR20.1tr (+3.3% YoY, +4.0% QoQ), bringing in 1H20
Consensus Net Profit (20F, IDRbn) 5,362 revenue of IDR39.4tr (+2.0% YoY) (see Table 3 for each segment’s sales growth).
NP Mirae Asset vs. consensus (20F, %) -3.6 During 2Q20, only Bogasari booked negative YoY growth, which we attribute to
lower ASP. However, we note that Bogasari’s 1H20 EBIT margin is better than our
EPS Growth (20F, %) 5.3 previous expectation and, in fact, quite resilient at 6.9% (vs. 7.3% in 1H19). INDF’s
P/E (20F, x) 11.7 consolidated 1H20 EBIT margin (13.5%) was also quite strong, higher than 1H19 at
Industry P/E (20F, x) 19.6 11.8%. All in all, we deem INDF’s 1H20 performance satisfactory, especially amidst
Benchmark P/E (20F, x) 18.5 the economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect INDF’s 1H20
Market Cap (IDRbn) 60,365.4 resilient performance to continue in the future.

Shares Outstanding (mn) 8,780.4 Slightly adjust down our revenue forecast, but expect higher margin
Free Float (%) 49.9
We revise down our revenue forecast slightly, partly due to the adjustment to
Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.0
Bogasari’s weak sales. Thus, we lower our FY20 revenue estimate by 1.6% (vs. our
52-Week Low (IDR) 5,000
previous forecast). We currently estimate INDF’s FY20 revenue at IDR80.9tr (+5.6%
52-Week High (IDR) 8,300 YoY). However, our latest FY20 net profit estimate is merely 0.1% higher than our
(%) 1M 6M 12M
previous forecast, due to higher margin expectation. We project that INDF’s FY20
net profit would arrive at IDR5.2tr (+5.3% YoY).
Absolute 6.8 -10.5 -2.4
Relative 3.0 3.2 14.1 Maintain Buy with higher TP of IDR8,700 as we roll forward to 2021
(D-1yr=100)
JCI INDF We maintain our Buy recommendation on INDF with higher TP of IDR8,700 (from
120
previously IDR8,600) as we roll forward our EPS base from FY20F to FY21F for our
100
multiple P/E valuation. We derived our target price by applying a P/E of 12.8x (close
to its -0.5 SD) to our 2021F EPS. We believe that INDF’s valuation is still
80 undemanding and quite attractive. Downside risks to our call are higher-than-
expected interest costs due to the Pinehill acquisition by ICBP, higher-than-expected
60
8/19 10/19 12/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 raw material prices, worse-than-expected depreciation of Rupiah, and slower-than-
expected economic activities.
PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia FY (Dec.) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F
Revenue (IDRbn) 70,187 73,395 76,593 80,886 86,405
Consumer
Operating profit (IDRbn) 8,463 7,928 9,530 10,226 11,378
Mimi Halimin Net profit (IDRbn) 4,156 4,166 4,908 5,168 5,948
+62-21-5088-7000 (ext.: 167) EPS (IDR) 473 474 559 589 677
[email protected] BPS (IDR) 3,565 3,828 4,303 4,302 4,691
P/E (x) 14.5 14.5 12.3 11.7 10.1
P/B (x) 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 6.5 5.6 5.5 5.1
ROE (%) 13.3% 12.4% 13.0% 13.7% 14.4%
ROA (%) 4.7% 4.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.9%
Dividend yield (%) 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 4.2% 4.8%
Net gearing (x) 31.4% 50.0% 24.3% 44.6% 45.0%
Note: Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests;
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
August 10, 2020 Indofood Sukses Makmur

Table 1. INDF’s 1H20 financial performance summary

(IDRbn) 2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 QoQ(%) YoY (%) 1H19 1H20 YoY (%)
Revenue 19,439 19,305 20,080 4.0% 3.3% 38,609 39,385 2.0%
COGS 13,876 13,022 13,883 6.6% 0.1% 27,248 26,905 -1.3%
Gross profit 5,563 6,283 6,197 -1.4% 11.4% 11,361 12,479 9.8%
Operating profit 2,084 2,835 2,476 -12.7% 18.8% 4,562 5,311 16.4%
Pre-tax profit 1,895 2,459 2,501 1.7% 32.0% 4,236 4,960 17.1%
Net profit 1,196 1,404 1,439 2.5% 20.3% 2,545 2,843 11.7%
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
Gross margin (%) 28.6% 32.5% 30.9% 29.4% 31.7%
Op. margin (%) 10.7% 14.7% 12.3% 11.8% 13.5%
Net margin (%) 6.2% 7.3% 7.2% 6.6% 7.2%
Note: NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Table 2. INDF’s 1H20 run-rate performance (before revision)

FY20 (F) FY20 (F) 6M20 (A) 6M20(A) to FY20F (%)
FY (Dec.) Mirae Asset Consensus Actual Mirae Asset Consensus
Revenue (IDRbn) 82,211 81,273 39,385 47.9% 48.5%
Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 9,188 9,292 4,960 54.0% 53.4%
NP (IDRbn) 5,161 5,276 2,843 55.1% 53.9%
Note: NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Bloomberg (consensus estimates are based on July 27 data), Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

Table 3. INDF’s sales performance by business segment

Total net sales (IDRbn) 2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 QoQ (%) YoY (%) 6M19 6M20 YoY (%)
Consumer Branded Product 11,046 11,446 11,350 -0.8% 2.7% 21,869 22,796 4.2%
Bogasari 5,870 5,456 5,620 3.0% -4.3% 11,600 11,076 -4.5%
Agribusiness 3,156 3,349 3,535 5.5% 12.0% 6,424 6,884 7.2%
Distribution 1,050 1,125 1,183 5.2% 12.7% 2,079 2,308 11.0%
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 1. INDF’s revenue estimates Figure 2. INDF’s net profit estimates

(IDRbn) (IDRbn)

100,000 Revenue - LHS growth (YoY) 20% 6,000 Net profit - LHS growth (YoY) 80%

60%
80,000
15%
4,000 40%
60,000
10% 20%
40,000
2,000 0%
5%
20,000
-20%

0 0% 0 -40%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates

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August 10, 2020 Indofood Sukses Makmur

Figure 3. CBP’s sales estimates Figure 4. Bogasari’s sales estimates

(IDRbn) (IDRbn)
Total net sales (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) Total net sales (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
50,000 25% 25,000 EBIT margin (RHS) 20%
EBIT margin (RHS)

40,000 20% 20,000 15%

30,000 15% 15,000 10%

20,000 10% 10,000 5%

10,000 5% 5,000 0%

0 0% 0 -5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates

Figure 5. Agribusiness’s sales estimates Figure 6. Distribution’s sales estimates

(IDRbn) (IDRbn)
Total net sales (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
Total net sales (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
16,000 EBIT margin (RHS) 20% 6,000 20%
EBIT margin (RHS)
15% 5,000
10%
15,000
10%
4,000
0%
5%
14,000 3,000
0%
-10%
2,000
-5%
13,000
-20%
-10% 1,000

12,000 -15% 0 -30%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates

Figure 7. INDF’s forward P/E band

(x)

20
+ 2 SD

18
+1 SD
16
mean
14

12 -1 SD

10
-2 SD

8
Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Estimates

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August 10, 2020 Indofood Sukses Makmur

Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF/Buy/TP IDR8,700)

Statement of Financial Condition

Income Statement (Summarized)
(Summarized)
(IDRbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F (IDRbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F
Revenue 73,395 76,593 80,886 86,405 Cash 12,928 13,801 6,255 4,638
Cost of Goods Sold 53,183 53,877 56,620 60,570 Trade Receivables 5,402 5,406 5,762 6,155
Gross Profit 20,212 22,716 24,266 25,835 Inventories 11,644 9,659 11,014 12,612
Operating Expenses -12,284 -13,187 -14,040 -14,457 Other CA 3,298 2,538 3,155 3,370
Operating Profit 7,928 9,530 10,226 11,378 PPE 42,388 43,073 45,906 48,475
Pretax Profit 7,447 8,749 9,198 10,362 Other Non-CA 20,877 21,723 23,861 25,489
Income Tax -2,485 -2,847 -3,035 -3,420 Total Assets 96,538 96,199 95,953 100,738
Non-Controlling Interest 796 995 995 995 Trade Payables 4,029 4,522 4,343 4,646
Net Profit 4,166 4,908 5,168 5,948 ST loans + CPLTD 22,240 14,022 14,068 14,107
Total CL 31,204 24,687 23,993 24,716
Profitability ratio Long-term debt 7,490 8,955 9,028 9,079
Gross Profit Margin 27.5% 29.7% 30.0% 29.9% Total Liabilities 46,621 41,996 41,757 43,126
Operating Profit Margin 12.5% 12.8% 13.3% 14.1% Common Stock 878 878 878 878
Net Profit Margin 5.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.9% Paid in Capital 284 284 284 284
Return on Equity 12.4% 13.0% 13.7% 14.4% Retained Earnings 23,304 26,780 29,507 32,923
Return on Asset 4.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.9% Non-Controlling interest 16,303 16,425 16,425 16,425
Equity (ex minority) 33,614 37,778 37,772 41,188

Forecasts/ Valuations
Cash Flow (Summarized) (Summarized)
(IDRbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F
Operating Cash Flow P/E (x) 14.5 12.3 11.7 10.1
Net income 4,166 4,908 5,168 5,948 P/B (x) 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5
Depreciation 2,749 2,646 3,166 3,432 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 5.6 5.5 5.1
Changes in operating accounts EPS (IDR) 474 559 589 677
∆ in trade receivables 362 4 356 393 BPS (IDR) 3,828 4,303 4,302 4,691
∆ in inventories 1,851 -1,985 1,355 1,598 DPS (IDR) 236 278 288 332
∆ in others CA -327 -760 616 215 Payout ratio (%) 49.7% 49.7% 49.0% 49.0%
∆ in trade payable -47 493 -178 303 Dividend Yield (%) 3.4% 4.0% 4.2% 4.8%
∆ in short term debt 9,527 -8,218 46 39 Revenue growth (%) 4.6% 4.4% 5.6% 6.8%
∆ in accrued expense 136 598 -381 171 GP growth (%) 2.2% 12.4% 6.8% 6.5%
∆ in others CL -50 609 -181 210 OP growth (%) -6.3% 20.2% 7.3% 11.3%
CFO 14,594 3,778 5,313 7,896 EBITDA growth (%) -16.6% 4.9% 11.6% 11.9%
Investing Cash Flow NP growth (%) 0.2% 17.8% 5.3% 15.1%
∆ in PPE 5,644 3,330 6,000 6,000 AR turnover (x) 14.1 14.2 14.0 14.0
Others 4,916 846 2,139 1,628 Invt. turnover (x) 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8
CFI -10,561 -4,176 -8,139 -7,628 AP turnover (x) 13.1 12.6 13.0 13.0
Financing Cash Flow ROA (%) 4.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.9%
∆ in other liability -126 427 381 596 ROE (%) 12.4% 13.0% 13.7% 14.4%
∆ in equity 1,854 745 5,174 2,532 Gearing
∆ in minority interest 502 122 0 0 Total debt (IDRbn) 29,729 22,977 23,097 23,186
CFF -5,596 1,270 -4,719 -1,886 Debt/equity (%) 88.4% 60.8% 61.1% 56.3%
Net cash -1,562 872 -7,545 -1,617 Net debt (IDRbn) 16,801 9,177 16,841 18,548
beginning balance 14,490 12,928 13,801 6,255 Net debt/equity (%) 50.0% 24.3% 44.6% 45.0%
ending balance 12,928 13,801 6,255 4,638
Source: Company, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
estimates

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August 10, 2020 Indofood Sukses Makmur

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price
(IDR) INDF Analyst's TP
INDF IJ 8/10/2020 Buy 8,700
4/8/2020 Buy 8,600 10,000
2/18/2020 Buy 9,500

8,000

6,000

4,000
Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell Relative performance of -10%
* Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered ( ), Buy ( ), Trading Buy ( ), Hold ( ), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-
term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of
future earnings.
The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic
conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution

Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell
Equity Ratings Distribution 38% 20% 35% 7%
*Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of June 30, 2020)

Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and
do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily
responsible for this report. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the
subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of
the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all
employees of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes
revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the
time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers
This report is published by PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a
member of the Indonesia Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in
good faith, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express
or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into
English from the Bahasa Indonesia. If this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian
language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. Mirae Asset, its affiliates and their directors, officers,
employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and
it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment,
its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or
subject Mirae Asset and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof.
Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in
any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset. Mirae Asset, its affiliates
and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a
purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 5

August 10, 2020 Indofood Sukses Makmur

otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to e nter into, business
relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under
applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well
as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not
guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Distribution
United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Mirae Asset Securities (Europe) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals
falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth
companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons
together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person
should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents.
United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Mirae Asset Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for
major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U.S. persons that receive this
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wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Mirae Asset Securities (America) Inc., which
accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S.
Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable
exemption from the registration requirements.
Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.
This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of
Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any
person.
All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact
Mirae Asset or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not
subject Mirae Asset and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

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August 10, 2020 Indofood Sukses Makmur

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