ICAO Coronavirus Econ Impact PDF

Effects of Novel Coronavirus
(COVID-19) on Civil Aviation:

Economic Impact Analysis
Montréal, Canada
13 July 2020
Air Transport Bureau
Contents
• Executive Summary: Economic

Impact in Brief
• Scenario Building • Appendix
– Analytical Consideration A. Overview of Early Impact
– Shapes of Economic Recession and
B. Scenario Assumptions in Detail
Recovery
– Indicative Scenarios and Paths Forward C. Summary of Key Impact Indicators
D. Estimated Results at Route Group
• Scenario Estimates Level
– Impact on Passenger Seat Capacity (Supply) E. Summary of Analysis by Other
– Impact on Passenger Numbers (Demand) Organizations
– Impact on Gross Passenger Operating
Revenues of Airlines
2
Executive Summary: Economic Impact in Brief
Figures and estimates herein are subject to substantial changes, and will be updated with the situation
evolving and more information available.
3
Estimated results in brief:
World total passenger traffic
The latest estimates indicate that the possible COVID-19 impact on world
scheduled passenger traffic for the full year 2020, compared to Baseline
(business as usual, originally-planned), would be:
– Overall reduction ranging from 43% to 51% of seats offered by airlines

– Overall reduction of 2,423 to 2,907 million passengers
– Approx. USD 323 to 385 billion potential loss of gross operating
revenues of airlines
The impacts depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and

containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel, and
economic conditions, etc.
4
Estimated results in brief:
International and domestic
International passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline

– Approx. USD 216 to 253 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of
airlines
Domestic passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline

– Approx. USD 106 to 132 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of
airlines
5
World passenger traffic collapses with
unprecedented decline in history
World passenger traffic evolution

1945 – 2020*
-50% to -60%
decline in world total
passengers in 2020*
Source: ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form A and A-S plus ICAO estimates. 6
Drastic capacity cut along with
dramatic drop in demand
Comparison of passenger numbers and capacity

(Green shoot recovery for domestic while international remains stagnant)
Source: ICAO ADS-B and OAG plus estimates 7

Approximately USD 170 billion
passenger revenue loss from Jan to Jun 2020
Latin
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe America/Caribbean Middle East North America
-10 -6
-9
Revenue loss (USD, billions)
Jun 2020
-12
May 2020
-20
Apr 2020
Mar 2020
-30
Feb 2020
Jan 2020
-40
-40
-44
-50
-60 -60
Note: Compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned)
Source: ICAO estimates 8

Due to extreme uncertainty,
4 different paths are considered
Scenarios for passenger seat capacity compared to Baseline (business as usual)
V-shaped path (reference only,

“Nike swoosh”-shaped path
based on the latest airlines schedules)
U-shaped path
W-shaped path
Actual path
(January to May 2020)
L-shaped path
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO-ICM MIDT, ICAO LTF, ICAO RCA, IATA Economics, and IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook 9
Estimated impact on international passenger
traffic and revenues by region for 2020
Capacity:
-51% to -61%
Capacity:
-56% to -64% Passenger:
-528 to -634 million Capacity:
Passenger:
-103 to -117 million Revenue (USD): -61% to -70%
-73 to -87 billion Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-27 to -31 billion -356 to -410 million
Revenue (USD):
-73 to -85 billion
Capacity:
Capacity: -58% to -66%
Capacity: -59% to -68% Passenger:
-52% to -61% Passenger: -100 to -115 million
Passenger: -53 to -61 million Revenue (USD):
-73 to -84 million Revenue (USD): -18 to -21 billion
Revenue (USD): -11 to -13 billion
-15 to -17 billion

Estimated impact on domestic passenger
traffic and revenues by region for 2020
Capacity:
-32% to -37%
Capacity:
-127 to -159 million Capacity:
Passenger:
-391 to -495 million Revenue (USD): -34% to -40%
-10 to -13 billion Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-45 to -57 billion -527 to -638 million
Revenue (USD):
-37 to -45 billion
Capacity:
Capacity:
-44% to -51%
Capacity: -54% to -63%
Passenger:
-20 to -24 million
Passenger: -26 to -31 million
Revenue (USD):
-118 to -139 million Revenue (USD):
-2 to -2 billion
Revenue (USD): -2 to -3 billion
-10 to -11 billion

Global impact of COVID-19 on
aviation, tourism, trade and economy
• Air passenger traffic: An overall reduction of air passengers (both international and domestic)
ranging from 50% to 60% in 2020 compared to 2019 (by ICAO)
• Airports: An estimated loss of over 50% of passenger traffic and 57% or over USD 97 billion
airport revenues in 2020 compared to business as usual (by ACI)
• Airlines: A 54.7% decline of revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs, both international and
domestic) in 2020 compared to 2019 (by IATA)
• Tourism: A decline in international tourism receipts of between USD 910 to 1,170 billion in 2020,
compared to the USD 1.5 trillion generated in 2019, with 100% of worldwide destinations having
travel restrictions (by UNWTO)
• Trade: A fall of global merchandise trade volume by between 13% and 32% in 2020 compared
to 2019 (by WTO)
• Global economy: A projected -4.9% to -5.2% contraction in world GDP in 2020, far worse than
during the 2008–09 financial crisis (by IMF and World Bank)
12
Scenario Building
Previous two (2) scenarios and six (6) different paths were restructured with new two (2) scenarios and
four (4) different paths for scheduled passenger traffic till December 2020.
13
Scope of analysis
• Analysis focuses on simultaneous supply shock and drop in demand

– in a near-term, i.e. monthly profile from January to December 2020
– in terms of scheduled passenger traffic globally
• Taking into account the heterogeneity, distinction is made:

– between international and domestic
– by six (6) geographical region and/or 50 route groups used in ICAO’s long-term
traffic forecasts (LTF)
• Analysis is based on forward-looking scenarios, which will be continuously

adjusted and updated
14
Analytical Consideration
• Geographical disparity of international-domestic passenger traffic mix

• Difference in market size among regions
• Potential difference in resilience and speed of recovery
• Outbreak timing that impacts when traffic would bottom out
• Gap between what is scheduled and actual operations
15
International-domestic passenger traffic mix
exhibits significant geographical disparity
Share of international-domestic passenger traffic by region (2019)
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO LTF, ICAO Statistical Reporting, and IATA Economics 16
Europe and Asia/Pacific accounted for over 70%
of the world international traffic pre-COVID-19
Number of International Passengers by Region
(2019, based on from/to State)
Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates 17

North America and China account for over half of
world domestic passenger traffic
Number of Domestic Passengers by Route Group (2019)
Domestic passenger traffic may be more resilient
than international in some markets
Asia/Pacific and North America have experienced 20% to 25% less decline in
domestic passenger traffic than international
International seat capacity reduction Domestic seat capacity reduction

(compared to baseline) (compared to baseline)
20% 20%
January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020
0% 0%
-20%
Seat capacity reduction (%)
-20%
Seat capacity reduction (%)

-40% -40%
-60% -60%
-80% -80%
-100% -100%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin Middle East North America World Total Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin Middle East North America World Total
America/Caribbean America/Caribbean
Domestic passenger traffic may recover
ahead of international
Domestic passenger traffic in China already bottomed out in mid-February,

and capacity offered in June was recovered to around 76% of last year
Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data 20

The outbreak timing impacts when domestic
traffic would bottom out in each region
Capacity evolution of two largest domestic markets

China and United States since January 2020

Regions with higher share of intra-region
traffic are expected to recover faster
Almost 80% of international seats offered in Asia/Pacific and Europe

were for intra-regional traffic (2019)
Source: Estimates based on ICAO ADS-B operation data and OAG 22

A gap exists between what is scheduled
and actual operations
Airlines announced/planned resumption of flights in early May, however,

over half of which were subsequently withdrawn
International schedules Domestic schedules
200 300
Number of seats scheduled (millions)
Number of seats scheduled (millions)

150 250
100 200
13-Jul-20
13-Jul-20
06-Jul-20
06-Jul-20
29-Jun-20
29-Jun-20
22-Jun-20
22-Jun-20
50 08-Jun-20 150
08-Jun-20
25-May-20
25-May-20
11-May-20
11-May-20
27-Apr-20
27-Apr-20
0 100
Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020
Source: OAG 23
Shapes of Economic Recession and Recovery
Informal classification to describe different types of recessions:

• V-shaped: normal shape for recession, a brief period of sharp economic decline
followed by quick/smooth recovery
• U-shaped: prolonged contraction and muted recovery to trend line growth
• L-shaped (depression): long-term downturn in economic activity, steep drop
followed by a flat line with possibility of not returning to trend line growth
• W-shaped: a double-dip recession, “down up down up” pattern before full recovery
• “Nike swoosh”-shaped*: bounce back sharply but blunt quickly (* Brookings Institution/WEF)
24
What “recession shape” can be assumed
given uncertainties surrounding the outlook?
World’s GDP Projections (by IMF)

• How long will the pandemic last and what
will be the severity levels?
• How deep and how long will the global
recession be?
• How long will lockdowns and travel
restrictions continue?
• How fast will consumer confidence in air
travel be restored?
• Will there be a structural shift in industry
and consumers’ behaviors?
• How long can the air transport industry
withstand the finanical adversity?
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
Source: IMF Word Economic Outlook (April 2020) 25

Previous outbreaks/pandemics had a V-shaped
impact on air transport in Asia/Pacific
The impact of COVID-

19 has already
surpassed the 2003
SARS outbreak which
had resulted in
reduction of annual
RPKs by 8% and USD 6
billion revenues for
Asia/Pacific airlines.
The 6-month
recovery path of
SARS might not
apply to today’s
situation.
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/third-impact-assessment/
Source: IATA COVID-19 Updated Impact Assessment (dated 24 March 2020) 26

9/11 and global financial crisis had a U/L-shaped
impact on air transport in United States
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact-of-covid19-data-updates/
Source: A4A Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19 - Some Early Indicators (updated on 29 April 2020) 27
Indicative Scenarios and Paths Forward
As overall severity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic are still uncertain, four (4)
different recovery paths under two (2) indicative scenarios are developed:
• Baseline: counterfactual scenario, in which the COVID-19 pandemic does not

occur, that is, originally-planned or business as usual
• Scenario 1: two (2) different paths (similar to Nike swoosh- and W-shaped)
• Scenario 2: two (2) different paths (similar to U- and L-shaped)
• Reference: information only, based on latest airline schedules (similar to V-shaped)
28
What does Scenario mean?
• Notwithstanding the elevated uncertainty surrounding the outlook, a scenario

analysis could help gauge potential economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic
• Scenarios are not forecasts of what is most likely to happen. Given rapidly changing
circumstances, they are merely indicative of possible paths or consequential
outcomes out of many
• The exact path (depth, length and shape) will depend upon various factors, inter alia,
duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, availability of
government assistance, consumer confidence, and economic conditions
• With the situation evolving and more information available, scenarios will be adjusted
as necessary
29
Key assumptions
• International and domestic passenger traffic has separate scenarios/paths
• Scenarios/paths are differentiated in terms of supply and demand, i.e.

– Scale of output or seat capacity change
– Degree of consumer confidence that can be translated into demand or load factor as a proxy
• Supply and demand are influenced by:

– Different timing and speed of recovery by region, international/domestic, and intra-/inter-region
– Global economic contraction
• No consideration is made to social distancing requirements on aircraft, etc.
• Detailed scenario assumptions are summarized in Appendix B
30
Baseline & Reference
• Baseline: originally-planned or business as usual

– Counterfactual hypothesis that are expected to occur in the absence of COVID-19 pandemic
– Supply: airlines’ originally-planned schedules supplemented by trend line growth
– Demand: trend line growth of demand from 2019 level
• Reference: V-shaped
– Information-only scenario that reflects airlines’ most recent expectation or a “signal” of airlines’
plan to the market (not necessarily realistic)
– Supply: based on latest update of airline schedules filed up to December, which are adjusted
weekly by airlines according to the expectation of the evolving situation (quite often managing
capacity for a short period due to the uncertainties)
– Demand: quickly returning to Baseline level
31
Scenarios 1 & 2
Scenario 1: Nike swoosh- and W-shaped Scenario 2: U- and L-shaped

• International • International
– Path 1: Smooth capacity recovery to two thirds of – Path 2: Slow progression of capacity recovery to 55%,
Baseline level by December with pent-up demand picking up more demand in 4Q
– Path 1a: Capacity to start with smooth recovery but – Path 2a: Recovery to one third at diminishing speed
then turn back down due to over-capacity due to respite and continuous demand slump
• Domestic • Domestic
– Path 1: Swift capacity rebound to 87% of Baseline by – Path 2: Gradual capacity recovery to 82%, picking up
December pushed by pent-up demand more demand in 4Q
– Path 1a: Capacity to start with smooth recovery but – Path 2a: Capacity recovery to two thirds at diminishing
then turn back down due to over-capacity speed due to sluggish demand growth
In the following analysis, international and domestic scenarios having the same path number are
linked with each other, although different combination of scenarios/paths would be possible
32
Scenario Estimates
Figures and estimates herein reflect the latest operational data and schedules filed by airlines
but are subject to substantial changes, and will be updated with the situation evolving
and more information available.
33
Three (3) key impact indictors
• Three (3) key impact indicators under four (4) paths of two (2) scenarios:
– Impact on passenger seat capacity (supply, % change)
– Impact on passenger numbers (demand)
– Impact on gross passenger operating revenues of airlines
• Comparison to:
– Baseline scenario
Estimation based on actual results of January to
– 2019 level (year-on-year) June 2020 are used for the key impact indicators.
– Reference scenario Appendix C details the key impact indicators while
Appendix D presents estimation based on actual
• Break-down by: results by route group.
– International and domestic
– Six (6) geographical regions
34
Impact on Passenger Seat Capacity (Supply)
• Prior to the outbreak, airlines had planned to increase seat capacity in 2020 by 2.8%
(international by 2.5% and domestic by 3.0%), compared to 2019.
• According to the latest estimates, passenger seat capacity could instead drop from the above
Baseline by 43% to 51% (international by 55% to 65% and domestic by 35% to 41%).
• This capacity level would be 42% to 49% (international 54% to 64% and domestic 33% to 39%)
below the 2019 level.
• Biggest capacity reduction (%) is expected to be in Middle East, followed by Africa and Europe.
35
Baseline seat capacity compared to 2019
International + Domestic (+2.8% YoY)

11.0%
10.1%
10.0%
9.0%
8.3%
8.0%
7.2%
7.0% 7.0%
6.5% 6.6%
6.3%
6.2%
Seat capacity growth YoY
6.0% 5.8% 5.7%

6.1% 5.5% 5.5%
5.4%
5.1%
5.0%
4.7%
4.4% 4.7%
4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 4.2%
4.0% 4.2% 4.0%
3.8% 4.0%
4.0% 3.5%
3.7% 3.0% 3.3%
3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%
3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
2.7% 2.9%
2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8%
2.7% 2.7% 2.4%
2.7% 2.2% 2.5%
2.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1%
2.0% 2.2% 2.1%
1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5%
1.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
1.7% 1.3%
1.4% 1.0%
1.0% 0.8% 1.2%
0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.0% -0.1% 0.2%
-0.5%
-0.6% -0.7%
-1.0%
-1.2%
-2.0%
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/Caribbean Middle East North America Total
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, Routes Online and airline websites 36
Baseline seat capacity compared to 2019
International (+2.5% YoY) Domestic (+3.0% YoY)

12.0% 11.7%
10.0%
11.0%
8.3%
10.0% 8.0%
7.2% 7.3% 7.1%
6.2% 7.1% 6.2% 6.8%
8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.2%
8.0% 5.7% 5.6%
7.5% 5.7% 5.8%
7.3% 7.1% 7.2% 5.0% 4.4%
5.4% 4.6% 4.2% 3.8% 4.2% 4.1%
7.2% 4.0% 3.8% 4.6% 4.0%
7.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7%
6.8% 6.1% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0% 3.3%
3.4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.2%
6.0% 6.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.5% 2.9%
5.7% 5.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 2.7%
5.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.0%
5.0% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.3%
1.6% 2.2% 1.7%
5.2% 2.1%

5.2% 4.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8%
4.0% 4.5% 4.7%

4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 0.2%
4.2% 4.0% 3.4% 4.2%
3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% -0.5%
3.1% 3.1% -0.6% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7%
2.8%
3.2% 2.7% 3.0% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7%
2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.7%
2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% 2.2%
2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% -2.0% -1.7% -1.7% -1.7%
-1.9%
1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% -2.2%
1.8%
1.3% 1.4% -3.5%
1.0% 0.2%
-4.0%
0.6% 0.5% -0.2%
0.0% -0.2%
-0.5%
-0.7% -0.2%
-6.0%
-1.1%
-1.9% -1.1% -1.2%
-2.0% -6.8%
-2.0%
-7.1%
-2.3% -8.0% -8.1%
-3.2%
-3.7% -3.5%
-4.0% -3.8% -10.0%
-10.5%
-5.4% -11.0%
-5.2% -5.8%
-6.0% -5.7% -5.6% -12.0%
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/Caribbean Middle East North America Total Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/Caribbean Middle East North America Total
Scenarios 1 & 2 (World total):
Seat capacity change compared to Baseline & 2019
International + Domestic International + Domestic

(-43% to -51% from Baseline) (-42% to -49% YoY)
0% 10%
-1%
-6%
2%
-11% -10% 0%
-10% -11%
-14% -4%
-9% -8% -8%
-10% -9%
-20% -22%
-25% -20%
-20%
-29%
-30%
-29% -28% -24%
-31% -27%
-30%
-38% -30%
-37% -38% -35%
-40%
-43% -45% -36%
-46% -40% -37%
-47% -46% -42%
-49% -44%
-47% -51% -46% -44%
-50% -49% -48% -45%
-46% -50%
-52% -51% -50% -48%
-54% -53%
-56% -50% -51%
-60% -55%
-61% -60% -60%
Actual -62% -61%
Actual
-70% Scenario 1 Scenario 1
-70%
Scenario 1a Scenario 1a
-73% -73%
Scenario 2 Scenario 2
-80% -80%
Scenario 2a -82%
-81% Scenario 2a -80%
-82%
Reference Reference
-90% -90%
Seat capacity change compared to Baseline
International (-55% to -65% from Baseline) Domestic (-35% to -41% from Baseline)
0%
0%
-10% -10% 0%
-10% 0% -2%
-13% -2%
-15%
-10%
-20% -22% -10%
-17% -16% -13%
-16%
-20% -18%
-20%
-30% -27%
-35% -31% -26%
-39% -31% -33%
-35% -34% -32%
-40% -43% -36% -33%
-35% -38%
-38% -36%
-46% -40% -38% -38%
-51% -42%
-50% -48% -50% -47%
-48%
-59% -55%
-60%
-63% -61% -60%
-65% -60%
Actual -68% -67% -67% -65%
Actual
-70% -69%
Scenario 1 -70% -70%
Scenario 1
-74%
Scenario 1a -76%
-74%
-72%
-80% -79% Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
-90% Scenario 2a
-90%
Reference -94% -93% Reference
-100% -100%
Seat capacity change compared to 2019
International (-54% to -64% YoY) Domestic (-33% to -39% YoY)
10%
2% 2% 3%
1%
0% 0%
-5%
-9% -8%
-10% -10% -12% -8%
-14% -11%
-15%
-15% -16%
-18%
-21%
-20% -20%
-24%
-29% -25%
-29% -31%
-30% -31%
-33% -33% -31%
-34%
-38% -33% -36%
-35% -36% -35%
-42% -37%
-40% -40%
-44% -45% -40%
-50% -46%
-50% -46% -48%
-55%
-58% -61%
-60% -60% -59%
-62% -64%
Actual -67% -67% -66% -64% Actual
-70% Scenario 1 -69% -70%
-68% Scenario 1 -71%
-76% -73%
-73%
-80% -78% -80%
Scenario 2 -80% Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
-90% Scenario 2a
Reference -90%
-93% -93% Reference
-100% -100%
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Africa):
0% -2%
0% -4%
-4% -10%
-5%
-10% -11%
-15% -20%
-19% -23%
-25%
-20%
-30% -31%
-36%
-39%
-40% -40%
-43%
-40% -45%
-43% -44% -49% -48%
-44% -48% -50%
-54% -58%
-55% -56%
-60%
-62%
-60% -65% -65%
-64% Actual -65% -67%
-67%
Actual -69% -70% -68% -69%
-70% Scenario 1 -72% -73%
-71% -71%
Scenario 1 -74% -72% -73%
-72% -77% -73%
-75% -76% Scenario 1a -77%
Scenario 1a -74%
-77% -80%
-80% -78% Scenario 2 -83%
Scenario 2 -82%
-85%
-84% Scenario 2a
Scenario 2a -90%
Reference -90%
Reference
-92%
-94% -95%
-95% -97%
-100%
-100%
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Asia/Pacific):
0% 10%
-1%
6%
1%
-10% 0% -1%
-14%
-17% -16%
-6%
-20% -22%
-10%
-13%
-27% -16%
-30% -17%
-20% -20% -19%
-24%
-26%
-25% -24%
-40%
-43% -29% -29%
-30% -30%
-32% -31%
-47% -33%
-33% -33%
-50% -35% -35%
-53% -53% -35%
-40% -39% -38%
-42%
-60% -59% -61% -43%
-44%
-63%
-63% -48%
Actual -50%
-70% -70% -71% Actual
Scenario 1
-75% -74%
-74% -78% -77% -76% Scenario 1
Scenario 1a -80% -60%
-80% -80% Scenario 1a -61%
Scenario 2 -82%
-88% -84% Scenario 2
Scenario 2a -89%
-70%
-90% Scenario 2a -70%
Reference -90%
-91% -91% -91%
Reference
-100% -80%
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Europe):
3% 2%
0% 0%
-1% -2% -3%
-4%
-3%
-5%
-9% -9%
-10% -13%
-13% -15% -11%
-16%
-17%
-19% -20%
-20% -20% -21%
-23% -22%
-25% -24% -22%
-26% -23% -26%
-29% -25%
-31% -27%
-31% -29%
-33%
-36% -32%
-37%
-40%
-39%
-40% -40%
-43%
-44%
-43%
-49%
-51%
-52% -54%
-56% -54%
-58% -57%
-60% -58% -60%
-61% -61%
-65%
Actual -70% Actual -68%
Scenario 1 -72%
Scenario 1
-73%
-80% -80%
Scenario 2 Scenario 2
-88% -87%
Reference Reference
-90%
-95% -95%
-100% -100%
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Latina America/Caribbean):
2% 3%
0% 4% 4%
3%
1% 1% 1%
0%
-8%
-12%
-18%
-20%
-26% -20%
-29%
-25%
-30%
-30%
-32%
-35%
-40% -36%
-40%
-44%
-40%
-49%
-51% -43%
-44%
-52%
-51% -53%
-51% -54%
-57% -60%
-60% -55% -59% -55%
-60% -58%
-65% -66% -59% -60%
-65% -66%
Actual -68% -70%
-64%
-72% -69%
-72%
-70%
Actual
Scenario 1 -70%
-70%
-74% -73% Scenario 1 -71%
Scenario 1a
-80% -78%
-80% -80% Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a -85%
Scenario 2a
Reference -90%
-93% -92% Reference -91% -91%
-100% -100%
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Middle East):
6%
0% -1%
-3%
-6% 0%
-9% -10%
-14%
-9%
-20% -17%
-21%
-20%
-23%
-27%
-30%
-30%
-30%
-40% -38% -34%

-41% -38%
-44% -40% -43%
-48% -44% -41% -45% -43%
-44%
-43% -45%
-51% -53% -47% -47%
-50%
-55% -50% -49%
-51%
-61% -55%
-60%
-60%
-64% -62%
Actual -68% -63%
-68%
-70% Actual
Scenario 1 -71% -71% -76%
-72% -72% Scenario 1
-73%
Scenario 1a -75%
-74%
-77% -75%
-80% Scenario 1a
Scenario 2 -83% -80% -80%
-84% Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
-87%
Scenario 2a
Reference
-92% -92% Reference
-94%
-96%
-100% -100%
Scenarios 1 & 2 (North America):
10%
8%
5% 6% 5% 7%
2%
0% -2% 3%
-3% 0%
-15%
-10% -9%
-10%
-13%
-20% -14%
-15%
-18%
-27%
-20%
-32%
-24%
-25%
-40% -30% -31%
-31% -33% -32%
-35% -32%
-45%
-49% -35% -38% -35%
-36%
-38% -38%
-54% -40%
-57% -42%
-60% -61% -47%
Actual -63% -48%
-50% -50%
-69% -65% -67%
Scenario 1 Actual
-71%
-71% -75% -71% -73%
Scenario 1a -76% Scenario 1
-74%
-75% -60%
-80% Scenario 2 -77% Scenario 1a
-82% -80%
Scenario 2a -83% Scenario 2 -65%
-84% -67%
-70%
Reference Scenario 2a
-90%
-91% -73%
-93% Reference
-100% -80%
Impact on Passenger Numbers (Demand)
• Given the originally-planned seat capacity, passenger demand could have increased 151
million for 2020 (international 56 million and domestic 95 million), compared to 2019.
• According to the latest estimates, passenger demand could instead drop from the above
Baseline by 2,423 to 2,907 million (international by 1,214 to 1,422 million and domestic by
1,209 to 1,485 million).
• This demand level would be 2,272 to 2,756 million (international by 1,158 to 1,366 million
and domestic by 1,114 to 1,391 million) below the 2019 level.
• The most substantial demand reduction (in total number) is expected to be in Asia/Pacific,
followed by Europe, hitting its summer travel peak season.
47
Baseline passenger numbers compared to 2019
International + Domestic (+151 million)

20,000
3,232
708
15,000 1,208
3,334
5,969
4,658
900 860
331 275 2,456
Passenger Number (thousand)
459 1,092 3,169 4,474

448 3,537
10,000 317
2,741 459 411
425
2,546 226
1,797 1,115 1,007 275 1,898
598 1,254 1,240 1,817
1,302 940
1,514 3,021 2,409
773 468
10,320 3,360 2,181 84
9,508 2,297 840
5,000
6,939 6,621
5,476 5,656
4,317 4,528 5,123
3,586 4,408
3,425
621 866 592 569 581 679 492 363 445 401 530 743
0 -1
-27 -115
-5,000
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/Caribbean Middle East North America
Baseline passenger numbers compared to 2019
International (+56 million) Domestic (+95 million)

8,000 14,000
808
7,000
12,000
6,000 581
475 3,423
168 10,000
514 443 244
3,343 76 219
5,000
563
614 2,283

4 1,211
291 8,000 1,620
702 146
4,000 1,270 332 1,608
2,875 3,391 2,441
6,032
3,054 842
209 4,469
223 4,799 3,157
3,000 307 262
2,262 6,000 1,464
3,659
2,212 381 2,458
869 3,293
2,957 1,600
3,365 2,839
2,000 2,868 729
2,573 4,000 7,481
907 945
2,215 2,264 1,039 762
1,828 1,744 1,542 1,290 788
1,581 6,143
1,318 1,629
1,000 1,233 5,110 1,156
35 3,754
2,000
446 632 500 465 557 481 3,175 3,212 3,083
441 410 354 382 294 365 2,947 2,908
2,573
0 -3
-191 -172 2,107 2,043
-384 -372 -217 -63 -295 -318
-122 -142 -124
-641
-660 -701 175 234 166 262
-720 -748 0 -9
-100 151 68 116 122 82 9 63 108
-254 -329 -17 -16 -16 -18 -18 -16 -297 -263 -385
-1,000 -232 -239 -30 -31 -33 -33 -31 -333 -324 -264
-2,000 -2,000

Note: Number of international passengers departing from each country and territory, which are aggregated at the regional level to avoid double counting
Passenger numbers compared to Baseline & 2019
International + Domestic
(-2,423 to -2,907 million from Baseline and -2,272 to -2,756 million from 2019)
500.00
447.84
450.00 442.87
415.78
432.29 430.57
398.67 399.02 400.04
400.00
385.63 401.24
382.81 385.59
386.62 385.99 391.51
362.92 373.15
364.17
358.90 348.20 370.51 374.70 352.81
Passenger Number (million)
350.00 351.90 355.44

328.12
328.54 324.73 308.75
300.00
279.01
281.06
256.37
265.12
250.00
249.27 237.48
221.02
200.00 196.83
172.01 179.33
171.33 169.37 183.18
181.11
2019 170.10 157.72 153.96 163.71
150.00 140.02 142.47
Baseline 138.73
150.77 146.73
138.44 136.46
Actual 120.55
100.00 Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
77.17
Scenario 2
50.00
Scenario 2a 49.00
Reference 31.34
0.00
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO LTF, ICAO Statistical Reporting, IATA Economics, and IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook 50
International Domestic
(-1,214 to -1,422 million from Baseline and -1,158 to -1,366 million from 2019) (-1,209 to -1,485 million from Baseline and -1,114 to -1,391 million from 2019)
200.00
192.84 193.99
188.64 255.01
178.63 187.34 248.88
180.00 250.00
237.16
170.30 234.20 244.96 237.11
164.46 241.93
172.63 230.97 228.72 231.02 230.59
161.81 162.92 223.82 221.80
226.61 228.61 220.15 223.33
160.00 165.85 217.65 229.99
151.85 160.01 211.12 223.20
155.00 211.21 217.51 216.77
147.70 157.18 160.49
146.52 141.12 149.81 209.36 212.04 203.68
147.31 200.00 193.91
137.08 198.88
140.00 142.54 186.13 189.26
138.67

176.19
129.65
122.82 124.45 167.72
173.53
120.00
112.68
116.58
114.84
150.00
140.19 151.54
100.00 136.25 137.75
132.81
124.50 136.04
89.75 125.38
126.09 126.57 122.54
78.98 80.18 110.55
110.83 108.63 107.29 114.95
80.00 115.68
69.47 75.74 100.00 98.34 107.06 103.48
69.75
2019
61.46
60.00
Baseline
2019 56.64
Baseline 45.24
Actual
42.80 68.25
48.30 47.14
40.00 Actual 35.18
41.58 Scenario 1
35.10 38.33
33.85 50.00
Scenario 1 31.77 Scenario 1a
32.98 33.22 31.43 44.59
Scenario 1a 27.90
31.39
Scenario 2
20.00 Scenario 2 22.21
Scenario 2a 27.76
Scenario 2a
Reference 4.42 8.92 Reference
3.57
0.00 0.00
(-53 to -61 million from Baseline and -48 to -56 million from 2019) (-26 to -31 million from Baseline and -25 to -29 million from 2019)
9.00 4.50
8.15 4.08
8.00 7.82 4.00
7.79
3.71 3.82
3.70 3.69 3.68
7.41 3.64 3.56 3.56 3.72
7.08 7.03 3.53 3.68
7.00 3.50 3.43 3.61 3.57 3.56
6.78 3.47
6.57 6.94 3.42 3.33 3.50
6.49 3.46
6.51 6.29 6.55 3.20 3.19

6.30 6.56
6.13 6.52
5.95 6.28 6.27 3.17 3.21
6.00 6.07 6.20 3.00 3.07
5.91
5.43 5.82
5.44
5.32 5.11 2.58
5.00 2.50
4.99
4.68 2.35
2.25
2.20
2.07 2.16
4.00 2.00
1.90
3.55
3.42 1.83
1.55
3.00 3.07 1.50 1.64
2019 2019
2.77 2.51
Baseline 2.51 Baseline 1.26 1.22 1.09
2.00 Actual 2.13 1.00 Actual 0.91 1.05
1.70 0.88 0.88
Scenario 1 1.57 Scenario 1
1.43 1.53 0.83 0.75 0.84
Scenario 1a 1.30 Scenario 1a 0.56 0.84
1.37 1.16 1.25 0.40 0.71
1.09
Scenario 2 0.47
1.00 Scenario 2 0.93 0.94 0.50 0.63
0.92 0.98
Scenario 2a 0.82 0.86 Scenario 2a 0.71 0.49
0.77
0.56 0.27
Reference Reference
0.10 0.03
0.07 0.24 0.03 0.13
0.00 0.00
50.00
120.00
47.54 47.86
46.68 46.41
45.99 110.43
45.32 109.46
45.00 44.19 44.83 44.99
43.35 44.05 106.52 107.52 107.52
43.31 43.23
42.36 42.70 43.54 103.25 103.64 104.28 104.63
41.40 41.79 101.73 103.02 103.39
42.43 100.00 102.56 104.31
98.53 98.96 102.96
42.03 41.69 100.00 102.04 99.63
40.00 40.96 40.97 97.11 99.39 99.87
40.16 99.16 97.96
39.59 93.28 96.85
94.56
37.29
35.00 86.03

34.19 81.87
32.71
80.00 81.98
78.15
77.87 77.22 75.62
30.00
65.82 70.22 65.61

27.58 65.81
26.18
61.39
25.00 24.25 60.00 63.23 61.19 61.23
60.68 58.97
53.99 53.02 57.01 56.92
53.66 53.99 52.32
20.00 51.54
20.10 18.71 49.22
17.82
42.75
15.76
40.00 41.54
15.00
2019
2019
11.81 13.03 11.80 Baseline
Baseline 30.29
9.64 Actual
10.00 Actual 9.00
8.58
Scenario 1 7.71
7.23 8.93 Scenario 1
8.15 6.50 20.00
Scenario 1a Scenario 1a 20.32
5.59
6.29
5.00 Scenario 2 4.19 5.03 5.34 Scenario 2
Scenario 2a 3.58 4.45
Scenario 2a
2.63
Reference 1.91 Reference
1.40 1.53
0.00
0.00
100.00 35.00
96.37 96.30
89.60 93.32 93.85

90.00 87.04
30.00 29.31 29.09
86.21 84.83
78.99 28.12 29.28 29.06 27.91
80.00 78.88
78.50 28.15 27.88 26.70
26.46
74.39 78.12 26.40
24.75 25.02 26.43
25.00

70.00 24.98 24.19 23.72

72.13 25.07 23.73
23.38
64.11 22.89 21.79 23.21
23.46
22.64 21.74 22.83
62.41 21.09
59.30 58.90 21.73 20.47 20.75
60.00 60.12 20.68
57.59 61.24 57.72
55.75 58.64 20.00 20.51
56.89
56.19 52.82
18.80 18.60
18.70
52.40
50.00 50.24 16.90 17.28
46.44 17.56
44.91 48.91
43.12 14.96 15.27
43.23 15.00 14.29 15.06 14.97
14.96 14.10 14.86
40.00 14.21 13.72
13.27 12.76
35.83 13.66 13.40 13.73
38.12 13.20
34.56
30.70 2019
30.00 29.21
28.05 26.52 10.00 Baseline
2019 25.18
21.59 23.47 Actual
Baseline 22.38
21.89
20.00 Actual 21.19
22.23
21.41 17.90 20.67 Scenario 1
18.54
Scenario 1 17.65 Scenario 1a 6.01
Scenario 2
10.00 Scenario 2
Reference Reference 1.95
1.79 4.61 1.66
1.08
0.00 0.00
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Latina America/Caribbean):
12.00 25.00
11.36 11.26 11.28

11.20
10.97 10.80 10.88
11.21 22.12
10.89 10.38 10.39 21.65 21.91
21.45
10.02 10.18 10.58 21.08 21.23
21.09 20.55
10.00 10.22 20.51 20.66
9.91 10.23 20.25 20.50
9.91 9.96 9.61 20.02 19.97 19.69
20.00 19.73 19.50
9.04 9.14 18.75 19.77 19.72
8.96 18.56 19.28
9.31 18.59 19.18 18.93
18.68
8.78 18.38
18.14

8.70 18.02
17.54
8.00
15.60
7.35 15.00
13.75
6.29 13.05
13.48
6.36 12.66
6.00 12.10
5.76
5.46
10.00 10.41
10.18
9.21 9.35
4.41 8.52
4.52 8.31 8.37 9.08
4.00 8.19
3.78 2019 8.20
7.14
2019 3.14 6.74 7.33 7.49
Baseline 6.74
7.11
2.98 6.34
Baseline 2.65 6.09
2.78 Actual 5.66
Actual 2.75
5.00
2.00
Scenario 1 2.01 1.94 1.95
Scenario 1a 1.66 1.53 1.58 1.84

Scenario 1a
1.57
Scenario 2 1.48
1.16 2.65
1.56
Reference Reference 1.27
0.53
0.29 0.31 0.00
0.00
16.00 4.00
15.38
3.77 3.79
14.79
15.14 3.75 3.78
3.55
14.00 3.50 3.49
14.35 3.45 3.41 3.42
13.27 13.75
13.23 13.30 3.32 3.47 3.36
3.40 3.40 3.27
13.17 3.21 3.23
12.91 12.65 12.68 12.69 3.08
12.42 12.45 3.19 3.25
12.35 12.80 3.06
12.13 11.83 3.09
12.00 12.40
12.15 3.00 2.90
2.96 3.00
11.59 11.62

11.15
10.78
10.78 10.27 2.67
10.00 9.68 2.50
9.54 2.36
2.09
8.00 2.06
2.00 1.89
1.90
7.23 1.86
1.77
1.72 1.71 1.82 1.83
6.78 1.76
1.58
6.00 1.50 1.58 1.44
1.37
1.36
4.89 2019 1.39
5.28 5.03 1.20
2019 4.90
1.15
Baseline 1.13 1.10 1.12
Baseline 1.11
4.00 1.11
1.00 Actual 1.03 1.06
Actual 3.39 3.98 1.02
3.28 0.90
Scenario 1 2.86 3.05 Scenario 1
3.06
Scenario 1a 2.44 2.62 Scenario 1a
2.33 2.24
2.00 Scenario 2 1.80 1.96
1.97 0.50 Scenario 2 0.55
1.68 1.68 Scenario 2a
1.27
Reference
0.89 Reference
0.34 0.32 0.06 0.10
0.00 0.00
18.00 90.00
86.70
81.41
16.16 79.48 82.53 80.66
15.96 80.00 78.62
16.00 78.12 75.95
15.20 16.22
15.84 75.64 75.83 75.50 75.96
73.67 77.73
15.06 72.18
71.65 72.81
14.19 14.01 74.03 73.49 69.30
13.82 70.00
14.00 70.71
13.78 66.49 66.32
13.28 13.88 13.20 67.71 67.70
13.34 13.61 12.91
13.44 13.07 63.71 64.47

13.20
12.56 62.09
11.92 62.21
11.64 60.00
12.00 59.97
12.26 57.07 57.08
11.56 58.79
11.45
11.23 11.26 55.64
10.00 50.00
9.86 45.95
9.07 44.43 47.64 45.35
41.42
38.78 39.23 42.35 40.93
8.00 40.00
7.35 38.08 38.63 37.68
7.56 34.65
34.58 34.89
32.16 34.56
6.31 29.52
6.00 30.00 31.09 31.14
29.04
2019 2019
4.56 4.74
Baseline 4.94 Baseline
4.07 4.53
4.00 Actual 20.00 Actual
3.43
Scenario 1 Scenario 1 17.37
3.17
2.56 2.79
Scenario 1a
2.42
1.97 1.87 2.00 10.00 Scenario 2 10.66
2.00 Scenario 2 2.21
1.86 1.77 1.85 1.86
1.75 Scenario 2a
Scenario 2a 1.41
Reference 0.74 Reference 4.41
0.00 0.40 0.37 0.00

Impact on Gross Passenger Operating Revenues of Airlines
• With the originally-planned seat capacity and trend line growth of demand, airlines’ gross
passenger operating revenues could have increased USD 18 billion for 2020 (USD 9 billion
from international and USD 9 billon from domestic), compared to 2019.
• According to the latest estimates, airlines’ revenues could instead plummet USD 323 to 385
billion (international USD 216 to 253 billion and domestic USD 106 to 132 billion) below the
Baseline, or USD 305 to 368 billion (international USD 207 to 245 billion and domestic USD
98 to 123 billion) below the 2019 level.
• Approximately 60% of revenue loss would be recorded by Asia/Pacific and Europe.
58
Baseline passenger revenues compared to 2019
International + Domestic (+18 billion USD)

2,500
375
2,000
134
90
390
1,500
32 710 212
77 545
Millions (USD)
32 428 384 75
1
30 541 220
61 311
42 79 32
62
1,000 129
205 219 182 125 15
121
103 43 15
18 5
286 45
13
131 159 143
1,202
1,203 362
363
136
256 249 924
500 749 786
743
471 607
361 395 460
388
99 147 99 96 99 104 112

72 53 69 54 76
0 -16 -3
-500
Baseline passenger revenues compared to 2019
International (+9 billion USD) Domestic (+9 billion USD)

1,500 1,100
1,250
143
900
397
100
1,000
391
99
1 700
52 4 9 34 251
80 188
Millions (USD)
62 97
Millions (USD)
64 700
750 47 187
83 40
221
104 45 557 367
288 22 26 66 519
36 44 500 285
232 52 49 425
366 365 69 37 119
500 382
138
735 636 254 343 186
252 634
57
555 75
300 566
364 435 477 60
250 322 277 467
237 287 86 74
200 385 106 66
135
95 289
126 3 266 231
84 85 90 88 93 64 64 62 89
53 44 100 187
0 -6 -30 149 173 172
-83 -78 -13 -63 -56 124 118
-22 -32
-164 11 23
-155 16 21
-1 13 6 10 -3 7 1 6 10 15
-156 -156 -170 -21 -27 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -24 -21 -31
-22 -9 -2 -2
-22 -3 -3 -3 -31 -30 -25
-250
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 -100

Note: The international revenues are gross passenger operating revenues of all airlines serving international routes from each country and territory, which are aggregated at the regional
level (revenues of international routes to each country and territory were removed to avoid double counting).
Passenger revenues compared to Baseline & 2019
International + Domestic International + Domestic

(-323 to -385 billion USD from Baseline) (-305 to -368 billion USD from 2019)
5,000
5,000
1,376
0
-50 0
-5,000 -6,408
-7,096 -5,000 -6,103 -5,514 -5,598
-7,142 -5,507
-7,845
-10,000 -11,236 -9,803

-10,000
Millions (USD)
-14,261
Millions (USD)
-15,000 -16,271 -15,805 -15,377
-15,000
-20,092 -19,098
-20,000 -19,872
-21,416 -20,000
-24,438 -23,006
-24,020
-25,000 -24,914
-25,000 -24,823
-26,855 -25,670
-26,313 -28,982 -28,088 -27,825
-29,369
-30,000 -31,233 -29,567 -30,240
-31,000
-29,648 -30,000 -28,753 -29,587
-31,130 -32,109
-33,903 -34,480 -33,047
-35,000
Actual -33,102 Actual -32,413
-32,617
-33,610 -35,000 -33,813
-35,246 -34,537
Scenario 1 -36,028 Scenario 1 -37,108
-38,899
-40,000 Scenario 1a Scenario 1a
-41,235 -40,000 -39,744
-40,060 -39,911
Scenario 2 -41,402 Scenario 2
-41,851
-42,232
-45,000 Scenario 2a -44,778
-44,023
Scenario 2a -43,594 -43,112
-45,106 -45,000 -44,306
-45,564
Reference Reference
-50,000
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 -50,000
Passenger revenues compared to Baseline
(-216 to -253 billion USD from Baseline) (-106 to -132 billion USD from Baseline)
5,000 -279
0
-459
409 -1,608 -1,553

0 -2,000 -1,466
-3,972 -3,274
-4,800 -4,000 -3,873 -3,859
-5,000 -5,589
-6,818
-5,232
-5,998 -5,119
-9,770 -6,000 -6,556
Millions (USD)
-10,000
Millions (USD)
-12,412 -12,531 -7,287

-8,000 -8,016
-14,972 -8,514
-15,000 -8,919
-16,050 -9,227
-16,184 -9,675 -9,145
-17,883 -17,627 -9,504
-10,000 -10,650 -9,855
-10,203
-20,000 -20,468 -10,805 -10,693
-20,316 -21,559 -10,945
-11,033
-22,081 -20,421 -21,353
-21,986 -12,000 -12,452
-23,830
Actual -24,399
-22,918 Actual -12,618
-23,247 -12,858
-25,000
Scenario 1 -24,213
Scenario 1
-25,825 -14,000
Scenario 1a -28,131 -27,954
Scenario 1a -14,039
-27,990
Scenario 2 -28,992 -28,784
-30,000 -29,450 Scenario 2 -15,328
-29,984
Scenario 2a -16,000
Scenario 2a
Reference
Reference -16,975
-35,000 -17,574
-18,000
Passenger revenues compared to 2019
(-207 to -245 billion USD from 2019) (-98 to -123 billion USD from 2019)
5,000 2,000
236 302
1,140
0
0 -684
-1,168 -872
-2,705
-2,000
-4,346
-4,726 -2,802 -2,593
-5,000 -6,405
-3,418
-4,000
-4,551
-9,119
Millions (USD)
-4,539
Millions (USD)
-5,774
-10,000
-6,000 -5,380
-11,958 -11,668
-14,559 -6,847
-7,336
-15,000 -8,000 -8,137
-15,520 -15,321 -8,074
-17,232 -17,173 -8,464
-8,887 -9,094
-8,786
-9,868 -9,275
-10,000 -9,983 -9,585
-19,967 -10,150
-20,000 -19,443 -20,490 -10,251 -10,112
-21,430 -21,146 -20,014
-21,122
-11,834
-23,179
Actual -23,526 -22,504 -12,000 -11,897 -12,000
-23,562
-22,834 Actual
-25,000 Scenario 1 -24,951 -13,077
Scenario 1
-27,306
Scenario 1a -27,124 -14,000
-27,301
-28,163 -27,910
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2 -28,601
-14,511
-30,000 -29,155 Scenario 2
Scenario 2a -16,000
Scenario 2a -16,288
Reference
Reference -17,005
-35,000 -18,000
0 0
-19
-100
-20 -23
-198 -195
-200
-50
-264
-372
-400
-98
-100 -109
Millions (USD)
Millions (USD)
-600
-140
-671
-147
-719 -691 -150
-757
-169 -164
-800 -168
-183
-860 -191
-929 -898 -195
-950 -200 -205
-1,000
-1,066 -224
-1,077 Actual
-1,129 -240
-1,131 -1,092 -249
-1,130 -250
Actual -1,136 -250 Scenario 1 -258
-1,200 -1,199 -262 -262
-1,218 -266 -256 -258
Scenario 1 -268
-1,235 Scenario 1a -268 -265 -271
-1,303 -1,293 -1,281 -282 -286
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2 -286 -288
Scenario 2 -1,347 -300 -294
-1,400 -1,395
Scenario 2a -305
Scenario 2a -1,413 -1,441 -312
Reference -1,493 -1,495 Reference
-1,600 -350
1,000
0
-57
497
-1,000 116
0
-204
-1,837
-2,000 -2,125
Actual
-2,253
-841 Scenario 1
-2,729 -880
-1,000 -1,122
-3,000 Scenario 1a
-3,189
Millions (USD)
Millions (USD)
-1,468
Scenario 2 -1,481
-1,545 -1,670
-4,000 Scenario 2a -1,999
-2,000
-1,980
-4,816
Reference
-2,361 -2,394
-4,870
-5,000 -2,729
-5,410
-2,678
-2,941 -3,087 -2,918
-3,000
-3,144 -3,309 -3,115 -3,015
-6,000 -5,828 -6,067
-3,365 -3,432
-6,548 -6,493 -6,622
-3,849
-6,998 -3,784 -3,849
-7,000 -4,000
Actual -7,430 -4,012
-7,465 -4,131
-7,629
Scenario 1 -7,822 -7,889 -4,331 -4,646
-7,587
-8,000 -7,839 -8,197
Scenario 1a -8,213
-8,147
-8,577 -8,600 -8,156 -5,000 -4,901
Scenario 2 -8,753
-8,737 -8,890
-9,000 Scenario 2a -8,974
-9,104
Reference -5,543
-6,000
-10,000
1,000 500
170
-440
-1,000 60
4
-1,762 0
-2,126 -173
-216 -239
-2,704
-299
-3,000 -3,234 -3,056 -385 -342
-458 -449
-3,888
Millions (USD)
-500
Millions (USD)
-4,218 -600
-680 -636
-4,447 -4,995 -646
-4,919 -738
-5,000 -749
-5,868 -831 -889 -901 -831
-5,999 -5,982 -929
-932 -934
-6,152 -1,000
-6,035
-1,160 -1,027
-1,212 -1,101
-7,000 -1,160
-7,158 -1,173
-6,964
-1,247
-7,758
-1,338
-7,722
-8,200 -7,856
-8,540 -1,500
Actual
-9,000 -8,899 -8,708
Actual Scenario 1
Scenario 1 -10,122 Scenario 1a -1,790

-10,063 -10,486 -10,196
-1,892
Scenario 1a -10,539 -2,000 Scenario 2
-11,000 -1,983
Scenario 2 -10,997
-11,429 Scenario 2a
Scenario 2a
Reference
Reference
-13,000 -2,500
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Latin America/Caribbean):
500 200
66 57
31 1 40
0 -12
47 10
0
-200
-409 -372
-500 -532 -400

Millions (USD)
Millions (USD)
-524 -481
-771
-600 -642
-661 -631
-908 -974 -653
-1,000 -1,047
-1,049 -764
-1,230 -800 -775
-1,315
-1,400 -1,311 -926
-1,445
-1,471 -1,468 -998
-1,013 -954 -941 -989
-1,500 -1,537 -1,469 -1,000 -1,011
-1,605 -1,489 -1,025 -1,011 -1,027 -1,012
Actual -1,668 -1,556 -1,624 Actual
-1,699
-1,106
Scenario 1 -1,742 Scenario 1 -1,143
-1,200 -1,143
Scenario 1a -1,947 -1,939 Scenario 1a
-1,898
-2,000 -1,972 -1,306
-1,960
Scenario 2 -1,997 -2,032 Scenario 2
-1,326
-1,400 -1,361
Scenario 2a Scenario 2a -1,408
-1,470
Reference Reference
-1,512
-2,500 -1,600
500
50
12
67
0 0
-124 -11
-314 -358
-467 -50
-500 -463
-73 -69
Millions (USD)
Millions (USD)
-93 -78
-94
-100 -97
-101
-1,000 -120
-1,133
-1,189 -138
-1,298 -139 -146
-150 -151
-1,343 -1,384 -150 -154
-158 -161
-1,516
-1,500 -178 -176 -166
-1,560 -1,519
-174
-189 -193
-1,715
-1,813 -1,790 -200 -200
-1,769 -1,855 -204 -208
-1,938 -1,862
-1,879 Actual
-2,000 Actual -1,962 -1,983
-2,105 -245
-2,073 Scenario 1
Scenario 1 -2,195 -250 -244
-248
-2,222 -2,210 Scenario 1a
Scenario 1a -265
-2,338 -2,344 -266
Scenario 2 -2,425 -2,428 Scenario 2
-2,500
Scenario 2a -300
Scenario 2a
-307
Reference -317
Reference
-3,000
-350
500 1,000
477
201 273
322 309
0 -53
0
-129 -239
-238
-500 -1,000
-1,417
-1,335
-818 -1,585
-1,000 -2,000 -2,192

-2,192
Millions (USD)
Millions (USD)
-2,849
-1,500 -1,543 -3,000

-1,584
-1,613 -3,128
-1,676 -3,554
-3,671
-2,013 -3,959
-4,117 -4,032
-2,000 -4,000 -4,333
-4,293 -4,067
-2,185 -2,171 -4,279
-4,263
-2,346 -4,765
-4,643
-2,512 -4,767
-2,500 -5,000
-2,443 -2,549 -5,009
-2,703
-5,718
-2,756
-2,937 -2,779
-3,010 -2,823
-3,000 -6,000 Actual -6,043 -6,050
Actual -5,843
-3,132 Scenario 1
Scenario 1 -3,323 -3,165 -6,638
-3,500 Scenario 1a -7,000 Scenario 1a
-3,460 -3,622 -3,470
Scenario 2 -3,774 Scenario 2
-3,807 -3,792 -7,565
-3,826
-4,000 Scenario 2a -3,933 -8,000 Scenario 2a
-8,040 -7,991
Reference
Reference
-4,500 -9,000
Appendix A: Overview of Early Impact
70
COVID-19 outbreak has impacted air traffic
of China starting from late January 2020
Number of originally-planned flights
Number of actual operations
Number of cancellation
Note: The above includes a) international from mainland China, Hong Kong SAR of China, Macao SAR of China, Taiwan, Province of China;
b) domestic within mainland China, and c) regional between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan Province
Source: CARNOC.com/VariFlight (retrieved on 9 March 2020) 71

A surge of COVID-19 confirmed cases occurred
in several States by late February 2020
January 2020 February 2020
Capacity change from originally- Capacity change from originally-
Country/Territory Country/Territory
planned planned
Russian Federation
Italy
-89,778
-65,971
-1%
-1%
China
Hong Kong SAR of China (CN)
-10,532,219
-2,363,320
-61%
-36%
In February 2020, international
Turkey
China
-53,262
-45,484
-1%
0%
Republic of Korea
Japan
-1,717,147
-1,592,429
-19%
-15%
passenger capacity reduced by
Morocco
United Arab Emirates
-42,684
-31,464
-2%
0%
Thailand
Taiwan, Province of China (CN)
-1,452,478
-1,446,686
-15%
-23%
10%, mainly related to traffic
Iraq
Albania
-29,326
-22,080
-3%
-7%
Singapore
Viet Nam
-807,608
-731,936
-12%
-16%
from/to States experiencing an
United Kingdom
South Africa
-21,888
-21,476
0%
-1%
Macao SAR of China (CN)
Philippines
-721,489
-646,104
-64%
-18%
early outbreak and States
Iran Islamic Republic of
France
-20,891
-19,537
-2%
0%
United States
Malaysia
-620,296
-448,172
-3%
-8% deeply interconnected to
Poland
Romania
-18,154
-17,493
0%
-1%
Indonesia
Russian Federation
-426,102
-317,890
-10%
-5% China.
Japan -16,449 0% Cambodia -307,968 -4%
United States -13,067 0% Turkey -277,868 -21%
Indonesia -12,114 0% Italy -268,846 -3% State/Territory with 100 to 999
Bulgaria -10,540 -1% United Arab Emirates -253,548 -2% confirmed cases*
India -10,342 0% Australia -241,284 -5%
Cambodia -10,158 -1% United Kingdom -188,864 -1% State/Territory with 1,000 to 9,999
Bahamas -9,588 -2% Iran Islamic Republic of -169,782 -18% confirmed cases*
Denmark -8,942 0% France -157,998 -1% State/Territory with 10,000 to 49,999
Viet Nam -8,489 0% Myanmar -147,487 -21% confirmed cases*
Malta -7,372 -1% Germany -145,561 -1%
Lebanon -7,182 -1% India -116,823 -2% State/Territory with 50,000 or more
Bahrain -7,123 -1% Morocco -108,186 -5% confirmed cases*
Uzbekistan -6,539 -1% Qatar -99,338 -2%
*: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation
Tunisia -6,362 -1% Canada -96,231 -1%
Report by WHO (29 February 2020)
Switzerland -6,235 0% Lao People's Democratic Republi -71,910 -21%
Czechia -5,642 0% Finland -71,413 -4%
Source: OAG scheduled data adjusted by ICAO estimates 72

COVID-19 Pandemic was declared and
accelerating in March 2020
March 2020 International Passenger Capacity In March 2020, global

Country/Territory
Capacity change from
originally-planned
Country/Territory
originally-planned
international passenger
China -14,841,792 -82% Philippines -1,669,456 -45% capacity reduced by 48%,
Italy -6,860,837 -60% Indonesia -1,466,518 -34%
Republic of Korea -6,536,917 -70% Netherlands -1,292,472 -17% with significant reduction
Japan
Germany
-5,837,894
-5,771,162
-51%
-31%
Canada
Austria
-1,218,383
-1,200,864
-16%
-30%
not only in States
Hong Kong SAR of China (CN) -5,352,855 -77% Russian Federation -1,177,704 -19% experiencing an early
United Kingdom -4,965,296 -22% Australia -1,119,345 -25%
United States -4,950,969 -19% Portugal -1,118,941 -26% outbreak but also
Thailand
Taiwan, Province of China (CN)
-4,587,421
-4,074,431
-46%
-62%
Belgium
Qatar
-1,060,572
-1,041,439
-31%
-21%
worldwide.
Spain -3,792,140 -26% Denmark -980,211 -28%
State/Territory with 100 to 999
United Arab Emirates -3,400,833 -26% Israel -972,061 -44% confirmed cases*
Singapore -3,297,434 -45% Poland -967,520 -24%
State/Territory with 1,000 to 9,999
France -3,216,482 -25% Macao SAR of China (CN) -954,453 -80% confirmed cases*
Turkey -2,879,271 -35% Egypt -818,043 -28%
State/Territory with 10,000 to 49,999
Viet Nam -2,599,336 -55% Morocco -762,145 -31% confirmed cases*
Malaysia -2,500,355 -42% Sweden -761,425 -24%
State/Territory with 50,000 or more
India -2,077,578 -29% Ireland -733,678 -21%
confirmed cases*
Saudi Arabia -1,747,385 -31% Greece -635,039 -34%
Switzerland -1,691,017 -28% Czechia -610,048 -37% *: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation
Report by WHO (31 March 2020)

The world reached 3 million confirmed
COVID-19 cases in April 2020
April 2020 International Passenger Capacity

Country/Territory
Country/Territory
Capacity change from In April 2020, global
originally-planned originally-planned
United States -22,976,621 -88% Malaysia -4,959,606 -85% international
United Kingdom
Germany
-22,345,210
-19,374,444
-90%
-92%
Portugal
Saudi Arabia
-4,913,803
-4,193,572
-95%
-77%
passenger capacity so
Spain -18,041,897 -94% Australia -4,115,805 -92% far experienced by
China -16,683,876 -95% Mexico -4,104,882 -78%
France -13,480,021 -91% Austria -3,812,866 -91% unprecedented 94%
Italy
United Arab Emirates
-12,464,502
-11,009,896
-94%
-89%
Qatar
Indonesia
-3,760,492
-3,723,583
-80%
-87%
reduction (estimated)
Japan -9,501,833 -88% Viet Nam -3,681,731 -89%
Turkey -8,798,224 -94% Ireland -3,595,318 -92% State/Territory with 100 to 999
Thailand -8,441,105 -94% Poland -3,449,632 -79% confirmed cases*
Republic of Korea -7,960,525 -86% Denmark -3,417,729 -93% State/Territory with 1,000 to 9,999
Hong Kong SAR of China (CN) -7,122,206 -93% Belgium -3,323,135 -87% confirmed cases*
Netherlands -6,960,693 -89% Greece -3,078,774 -94% State/Territory with 10,000 to 49,999
Singapore -6,596,279 -93% Philippines -2,993,741 -86% confirmed cases*
Canada -6,288,656 -90% Sweden -2,941,579 -89%
State/Territory with 50,000 or more
India -6,286,458 -89% Norway -2,476,519 -90% confirmed cases*
Switzerland -5,990,424 -93% Egypt -2,248,437 -78%
*: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation
Russian Federation -5,747,918 -87% Brazil -2,214,850 -92%
Report by WHO (30 April 2020)
Taiwan, Province of China (CN) -5,400,277 -85% Israel -2,196,238 -91%

Drastic reduction in passenger traffic amplified
by travel restrictions
Number of confirmed cases and destinations

with COVID-19-related travel restrictions
As of 18 May 2020, 100%
of all world destinations
have travel restrictions.
About 185 (85%)
destinations have
completely or partially
closed their borders,
while 11 destinations
(5%) have suspended
completely or partially
international flights.
https://www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-response-travel-restrictions
Source: UNWTO COVID-19 Related Travel Restrictions – A Global Review for Tourism (4th report dated 29 May 2020) 75
In contrast, surge in cargo flights
since March 2020
In contrast to the fall in passenger traffic, cargo flights surged with the
increased cargo-only operations using passenger aircraft

Appendix B: Scenario Assumptions in Detail
77
Assumptions underlying Scenarios
(International and Baseline (Originally-planned, business as usual)

domestic) Seat capacity Passenger load factor
January 2020
February 2020 Airlines' winter schedules filed with OAG as of 6 January 2020
March 2020
April 2020
May 2020
Forecasted 2020 load factor by region/route group, based on ICAO long-term
June 2020 Maximum number of seats taken from airlines' summer schedules filed with OAG
traffic forecasts (LTF), which was adjusted monthly by difference between 2019
July 2020 during the period from 6 January 2020 to 20 April 2020
actual monthly results (ICAO, IATA) and 2019 LTF forecasted load factor
August 2020
September 2020
October 2020
Using 2019 winter schedule as the base, and applying the growth rate of
November 2020
2019/2018
December 2020
(International and Scenarios 1/1a, 2/2a and Reference

domestic) Seat capacity Passenger load factor
January 2020
February 2020
March 2020 Actual estimated results by region/route group
April 2020 Actual capacity based on ICAO ADS-B data
May 2020
41 percentage points (international) and 23 percentage points (domestic) lower
June 2020
than Baseline with adjustment of GDP impact by region/route group
July 2020 Scenarios 1/1a & 2/2a: Application of monthly "base percentage" which
incorporates impacts of intra-/inter-regional share difference (2019), or most
August 2020
recent airlines' schedules filed with OAG, whichever is smaller
Application of "base percentage" which incorporates GDP impact by region/route
September 2020 Reference: Most recent airlines' schedules filed with OAG
group
October 2020 Scenarios 1/1a & 2/2a: Application of monthly "base percentage" which
November 2020 incorporates impacts of intra-/inter-regional share difference (2019)
December 2020 Reference: Most recent airlines' schedules filed with OAG
78
“Base percentages” used for scenarios
International (world average) Domestic (world average)

Seat capacity Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Seat capacity Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Reference -76% -50% -22% -15% -10% -13% Reference -38% -17% -2% 0% -10% -10%
Scenario 1 -79% -63% -51% -43% -39% -35% Scenario 1 -47% -35% -27% -20% -16% -13%
Scenario 1a -79% -63% -59% -70% -69% -65% Scenario 1a -47% -35% -31% -38% -36% -32%
Load factor Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Load factor Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Reference -23% -17% -13% -10% -8% -7% Reference -13% -9% -6% -4% -3% -2%
• Base percentages of seat capacity already take into consideration short-/long-haul (intra-/inter-region) impacts and will be
applied to Baseline level of seat capacity
• Base percentages of load factor already take into consideration economic (GDP) factors and will be added to 2019 load factor %
79
Data used for scenario analysis
• Seat capacity (seats available for sale): OAG airlines schedule data; Route Online; airline
websites and ICAO ADS-B operational data
• Load factor (RPKs/ASKs): ICAO long-term traffic forecasts (LTF); ICAO statistical reporting
forms; IATA economics data; and airline news release
• Historical passenger traffic (including ASKs, RPKs, passenger numbers and operating
revenues): ICO Annual Report of the Council; and ICAO statistical reporting forms
• Yield (passenger revenues/RPK): ICAO revenue-cost analysis of airlines (RCA); and ICAO-ICM
Marketing Information Data Transfer (MIDT passenger origin-destination)
• Macroeconomic factors (GDP impact): Income elasticity of demand estimated for ICAO LTF;
and IMF and World Bank economic outlook data
Note 1: A list of route group is shown in Appendix D.

Note 2: Average air fares (i.e. passenger yield multiplied by average trip distance) for each region/route group are used to
estimate gross passenger operating revenues.
80
Appendix C: Summary of Key Impact Indicators
Figures and estimates herein are subject to substantial changes, and will be updated with the situation
evolving and more information available.
81
Baseline & Reference (World total)
Baseline Reference
Compared to 2019 Reference Reference
Baseline (Originally-planned or business as usual)
(year-on-year) (compared to Baseline) (compared to 2019)
Passenger number Passenger revenue Passenger number Passenger revenue Passenger number Passenger revenue
Region Seat Capacity (%) Region Seat Capacity (%) Seat Capacity (%)
(million) (USD, billion) (million) (USD, billion) (million) (USD, billion)
Africa 5.7% 6.88 1.08 Africa -44.1% -64.35 -10.17 -40.9% -57.47 -9.09
Asia/Pacific 3.6% 69.91 8.29 Asia/Pacific -33.3% -713.91 -88.69 -30.9% -644.01 -80.40
Europe 1.2% 22.42 2.52 Europe -41.0% -585.37 -74.00 -40.3% -562.95 -71.48
Latin America/Caribbean 2.9% 12.39 1.03 Latin America/Caribbean -35.8% -143.24 -19.21 -33.9% -130.85 -18.18
Middle East 2.1% 4.73 0.92 Middle East -41.0% -95.40 -15.03 -39.8% -90.68 -14.11
North America 3.0% 34.75 3.70 North America -27.8% -412.17 -60.20 -25.7% -377.41 -56.49
Total 2.8% 151.07 17.53 Total -34.9% -2,014.43 -267.29 -33.1% -1,863.36 -249.76

Month Seat Capacity (%) Month Seat Capacity (%) Seat Capacity (%)
January 2020 3.0% 12.27 1.43 January 2020 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 1.5% 7.00 1.38
February 2020 5.4% 19.67 2.34 February 2020 -13.7% -67.14 -7.85 -9.0% -47.47 -5.51
March 2020 2.8% 12.30 1.19 March 2020 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67
April 2020 2.4% 10.93 1.26 April 2020 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31
May 2020 2.7% 12.04 1.51 May 2020 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59
June 2020 3.1% 14.54 1.67 June 2020 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11
July 2020 3.1% 15.55 1.79 July 2020 -54.4% -277.74 -38.90 -53.0% -262.19 -37.11
August 2020 2.4% 12.30 1.49 August 2020 -31.5% -177.75 -26.31 -29.8% -165.46 -24.82
September 2020 2.9% 13.02 1.43 September 2020 -10.5% -74.29 -11.24 -7.9% -61.27 -9.80
October 2020 1.7% 8.53 0.99 October 2020 -6.0% -47.23 -7.10 -4.4% -38.70 -6.10
November 2020 1.6% 7.48 0.89 November 2020 -9.9% -54.17 -6.41 -8.5% -46.69 -5.51
December 2020 2.8% 12.45 1.54 December 2020 -11.3% -57.47 -7.14 -8.8% -45.02 -5.60
Total 2.8% 151.07 17.53 Total -34.9% -2,014.43 -267.29 -33.1% -1,863.36 -249.76

Estimated results:
Scenario 1 (World total)
Compared to Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1 Compared to 2019 Scenario 1 Scenario 1

(business as usual) Path 1 Path 1a (year-on-year) Path 1 Path 1a
Passenger number Passenger revenue Passenger number Passenger revenue Passenger number Passenger revenue Passenger number Passenger revenue
Region Seat Capacity (%) Seat Capacity (%) Region Seat Capacity (%) Seat Capacity (%)
(million) (USD, billion) (million) (USD, billion) (million) (USD, billion) (million) (USD, billion)
Africa -57.3% -79.55 -13.06 -64.5% -89.25 -14.84 Africa -54.9% -72.67 -11.98 -62.5% -82.37 -13.76
Asia/Pacific -42.5% -882.79 -109.89 -48.2% -1,004.81 -126.04 Asia/Pacific -40.4% -812.89 -101.60 -46.3% -934.90 -117.75
Europe -46.2% -655.64 -82.82 -53.1% -759.92 -96.03 Europe -45.6% -633.22 -80.30 -52.5% -737.51 -93.52
Latin America/Caribbean -48.3% -190.55 -24.46 -55.4% -220.38 -27.91 Latin America/Caribbean -46.8% -178.16 -23.43 -54.2% -208.00 -26.88
Middle East -55.0% -120.43 -19.60 -61.3% -134.89 -22.09 Middle East -54.0% -115.71 -18.68 -60.5% -130.16 -21.17
North America -34.9% -493.89 -72.75 -40.8% -572.64 -83.63 North America -33.0% -459.13 -69.04 -39.0% -537.89 -79.92
Total -43.2% -2,422.85 -322.56 -49.4% -2,781.89 -370.53 Total -41.6% -2,271.78 -305.03 -48.0% -2,630.82 -353.00

Month Seat Capacity (%) Seat Capacity (%) Month Seat Capacity (%) Seat Capacity (%)
January 2020 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 January 2020 1.5% 7.00 1.38 1.5% 7.00 1.38
February 2020 -13.7% -67.14 -7.85 -13.7% -67.14 -7.85 February 2020 -9.0% -47.47 -5.51 -9.0% -47.47 -5.51
March 2020 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 March 2020 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67
April 2020 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 April 2020 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31
May 2020 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 May 2020 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59
June 2020 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 June 2020 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11
July 2020 -60.9% -309.12 -41.85 -60.9% -309.12 -41.85 July 2020 -59.7% -293.57 -40.06 -59.7% -293.57 -40.06
August 2020 -47.1% -246.04 -33.90 -47.1% -261.76 -36.03 August 2020 -45.8% -233.74 -32.41 -45.8% -249.46 -34.54
September 2020 -37.0% -178.00 -24.44 -43.3% -227.68 -31.00 September 2020 -35.2% -164.98 -23.01 -41.7% -214.66 -29.57
October 2020 -29.5% -143.67 -20.09 -51.4% -242.32 -33.10 October 2020 -28.3% -135.14 -19.10 -50.6% -233.80 -32.11
November 2020 -25.1% -113.66 -16.27 -49.2% -208.96 -28.98 November 2020 -23.9% -106.18 -15.38 -48.4% -201.48 -28.09
December 2020 -21.9% -106.58 -15.80 -45.6% -206.27 -29.37 December 2020 -19.7% -94.14 -14.26 -44.1% -193.82 -27.83
Total -43.2% -2,422.85 -322.56 -49.4% -2,781.89 -370.53 Total -41.6% -2,271.78 -305.03 -48.0% -2,630.82 -353.00

Estimated results:
Scenario 2 (World total)

Africa -63.0% -88.14 -14.67 -66.0% -91.80 -15.33 Africa -60.9% -81.26 -13.59 -64.0% -84.92 -14.25
Asia/Pacific -46.7% -1,000.40 -124.08 -49.1% -1,047.54 -130.07 Asia/Pacific -44.7% -930.50 -115.79 -47.3% -977.63 -121.78
Europe -52.5% -758.75 -95.52 -55.0% -793.19 -99.82 Europe -51.9% -736.34 -93.00 -54.5% -770.78 -97.31
Total -48.1% -2,770.99 -367.50 -50.7% -2,907.40 -385.26 Total -46.7% -2,619.93 -349.97 -49.3% -2,756.33 -367.72

January 2020 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 January 2020 1.5% 7.00 1.38 1.5% 7.00 1.38
March 2020 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 March 2020 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67
April 2020 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 April 2020 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31
May 2020 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 May 2020 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59
June 2020 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 June 2020 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11
July 2020 -61.9% -327.30 -44.02 -61.9% -327.30 -44.02 July 2020 -60.8% -311.75 -42.23 -60.8% -311.75 -42.23
August 2020 -55.8% -302.85 -41.24 -55.8% -304.43 -41.40 August 2020 -54.8% -290.55 -39.74 -54.8% -292.13 -39.91
October 2020 -44.6% -230.67 -31.23 -48.7% -249.26 -33.61 October 2020 -43.7% -222.15 -30.24 -47.9% -240.74 -32.62
Total -48.1% -2,770.99 -367.50 -50.7% -2,907.40 -385.26 Total -46.7% -2,619.93 -349.97 -49.3% -2,756.33 -367.72

Baseline & Reference (International)
Baseline Reference
Africa 6.8% 5.33 0.94 Africa -42.9% -41.52 -8.13 -39.1% -36.19 -7.19
Europe 2.0% 24.08 2.65 Europe -45.2% -471.00 -64.73 -44.1% -446.93 -62.08
Latin America/Caribbean -0.7% -0.38 -0.01 Latin America/Caribbean -42.4% -61.18 -12.38 -42.8% -61.56 -12.39
Middle East 3.9% 6.32 1.07 Middle East -40.2% -75.90 -13.21 -37.9% -69.59 -12.15
North America -2.9% -4.32 -0.83 North America -43.5% -83.79 -22.07 -45.2% -88.11 -22.91
Total 2.5% 56.39 8.98 Total -45.1% -1,026.25 -180.43 -43.7% -969.86 -171.45

January 2020 2.3% 3.97 0.73 January 2020 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 1.9% 5.15 1.14
March 2020 2.6% 4.54 0.53 March 2020 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52
April 2020 2.4% 4.62 0.69 April 2020 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30
May 2020 2.4% 4.45 0.82 May 2020 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31
June 2020 3.0% 5.99 0.85 June 2020 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60
July 2020 2.4% 5.50 0.83 July 2020 -76.3% -158.98 -27.95 -75.8% -153.48 -27.12
August 2020 2.3% 5.35 0.87 August 2020 -49.7% -115.01 -20.32 -48.5% -109.66 -19.44
September 2020 2.2% 4.45 0.65 September 2020 -22.4% -57.61 -9.77 -20.7% -53.16 -9.12
October 2020 1.1% 2.43 0.41 October 2020 -14.9% -40.10 -6.82 -14.0% -37.67 -6.40
Total 2.5% 56.39 8.98 Total -45.1% -1,026.25 -180.43 -43.7% -969.86 -171.45

Estimated results:
Scenario 1 (International)

Africa -59.1% -53.37 -10.72 -65.9% -59.60 -12.19 Africa -56.3% -48.04 -9.78 -63.5% -54.28 -11.25
Asia/Pacific -60.6% -356.14 -73.34 -69.3% -404.57 -83.95 Asia/Pacific -58.8% -330.77 -68.18 -67.9% -379.20 -78.79
Europe -51.3% -528.40 -72.51 -59.2% -614.28 -84.24 Europe -50.3% -504.33 -69.86 -58.3% -590.21 -81.59
Total -55.2% -1,214.20 -216.37 -63.0% -1,386.21 -247.15 Total -54.1% -1,157.81 -207.40 -62.0% -1,329.82 -238.18

January 2020 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 January 2020 1.9% 5.15 1.14 1.9% 5.15 1.14
March 2020 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 March 2020 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52
April 2020 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 April 2020 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30
May 2020 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 May 2020 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31
June 2020 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 June 2020 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60
July 2020 -79.0% -164.94 -28.99 -79.0% -164.94 -28.99 July 2020 -78.5% -159.44 -28.16 -78.5% -159.44 -28.16
August 2020 -62.6% -137.35 -24.40 -62.6% -145.69 -25.82 August 2020 -61.7% -132.01 -23.53 -61.7% -140.34 -24.95
October 2020 -42.7% -82.74 -14.97 -70.3% -129.70 -23.25 October 2020 -42.0% -80.31 -14.56 -69.9% -127.27 -22.83
Total -55.2% -1,214.20 -216.37 -63.0% -1,386.21 -247.15 Total -54.1% -1,157.81 -207.40 -62.0% -1,329.82 -238.18

Estimated results:
Scenario 2 (International)

Africa -65.0% -59.10 -12.08 -67.8% -61.27 -12.60 Africa -62.6% -53.78 -11.14 -65.6% -55.95 -11.66
Europe -58.1% -607.59 -83.27 -61.2% -634.14 -86.94 Europe -57.3% -583.51 -80.62 -60.4% -610.07 -84.29
Total -61.6% -1,365.41 -243.15 -64.7% -1,422.09 -253.49 Total -60.6% -1,309.02 -234.18 -63.8% -1,365.71 -244.51

January 2020 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 January 2020 1.9% 5.15 1.14 1.9% 5.15 1.14
March 2020 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 March 2020 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52
April 2020 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 April 2020 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30
May 2020 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 May 2020 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31
June 2020 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 June 2020 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60
July 2020 -80.2% -170.63 -29.98 -80.2% -170.63 -29.98 July 2020 -79.7% -165.13 -29.15 -79.7% -165.13 -29.15
August 2020 -73.8% -162.61 -28.78 -73.8% -162.61 -28.78 August 2020 -73.2% -157.26 -27.91 -73.2% -157.26 -27.91
October 2020 -61.5% -120.13 -21.56 -67.2% -127.83 -22.92 October 2020 -61.1% -117.69 -21.15 -66.9% -125.40 -22.50
Total -61.6% -1,365.41 -243.15 -64.7% -1,422.09 -253.49 Total -60.6% -1,309.02 -234.18 -63.8% -1,365.71 -244.51

Baseline & Reference (Domestic)
Baseline Reference
Africa 3.7% 1.56 0.14 Africa -46.1% -22.83 -2.04 -44.1% -21.27 -1.90
Europe -1.1% -1.66 -0.13 Europe -28.9% -114.36 -9.26 -29.7% -116.02 -9.40
Latin America/Caribbean 4.9% 12.76 1.04 Latin America/Caribbean -32.4% -82.06 -6.83 -29.1% -69.29 -5.79
Middle East -4.2% -1.59 -0.15 Middle East -44.3% -19.50 -1.82 -46.7% -21.09 -1.96
North America 4.1% 39.08 4.54 North America -24.9% -328.38 -38.12 -21.8% -289.30 -33.59
Total 3.0% 94.68 8.56 Total -27.6% -988.19 -86.86 -25.4% -893.51 -78.31

January 2020 3.4% 8.29 0.70 January 2020 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 1.3% 1.85 0.24
March 2020 3.0% 7.77 0.66 March 2020 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15
April 2020 2.4% 6.31 0.57 April 2020 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00
May 2020 2.8% 7.59 0.69 May 2020 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29
June 2020 3.2% 8.55 0.82 June 2020 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51
July 2020 3.5% 10.05 0.96 July 2020 -37.5% -118.76 -10.95 -35.3% -108.71 -9.98
August 2020 2.4% 6.95 0.62 August 2020 -17.2% -62.74 -6.00 -15.2% -55.80 -5.38
September 2020 3.4% 8.57 0.78 September 2020 -1.6% -16.67 -1.47 1.8% -8.10 -0.68
October 2020 2.1% 6.09 0.58 October 2020 0.4% -7.12 -0.28 2.5% -1.03 0.30
Total 3.0% 94.68 8.56 Total -27.6% -988.19 -86.86 -25.4% -893.51 -78.31

Estimated results:
Scenario 1 (Domestic)

Africa -54.1% -26.18 -2.34 -61.9% -29.65 -2.65 Africa -52.4% -24.63 -2.20 -60.6% -28.09 -2.51
Europe -31.8% -127.23 -10.31 -35.7% -145.64 -11.80 Europe -32.6% -128.89 -10.44 -36.4% -147.30 -11.93
Total -34.5% -1,208.64 -106.18 -39.7% -1,395.68 -123.38 Total -32.6% -1,113.96 -97.63 -37.9% -1,301.00 -114.82

January 2020 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 January 2020 1.3% 1.85 0.24 1.3% 1.85 0.24
March 2020 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 March 2020 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15
April 2020 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 April 2020 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00
May 2020 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 May 2020 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29
June 2020 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 June 2020 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51
July 2020 -47.0% -144.18 -12.86 -47.0% -144.18 -12.86 July 2020 -45.1% -134.13 -11.90 -45.1% -134.13 -11.90
August 2020 -35.0% -108.68 -9.50 -35.0% -116.07 -10.20 August 2020 -33.4% -101.74 -8.89 -33.4% -109.12 -9.59
October 2020 -20.0% -60.93 -5.12 -38.0% -112.62 -9.86 October 2020 -18.4% -54.83 -4.54 -36.7% -106.53 -9.27
Total -34.5% -1,208.64 -106.18 -39.7% -1,395.68 -123.38 Total -32.6% -1,113.96 -97.63 -37.9% -1,301.00 -114.82

Estimated results:
Scenario 2 (Domestic)

Africa -59.4% -29.04 -2.59 -62.6% -30.53 -2.73 Africa -57.9% -27.48 -2.45 -61.2% -28.97 -2.59
Europe -36.3% -151.16 -12.24 -37.4% -159.05 -12.88 Europe -37.0% -152.82 -12.38 -38.1% -160.71 -13.02
Total -38.5% -1,405.59 -124.35 -40.6% -1,485.31 -131.77 Total -36.6% -1,310.91 -115.79 -38.8% -1,390.63 -123.21

January 2020 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 January 2020 1.3% 1.85 0.24 1.3% 1.85 0.24
March 2020 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 March 2020 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15
April 2020 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 April 2020 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00
May 2020 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 May 2020 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29
June 2020 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 June 2020 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51
July 2020 -47.9% -156.67 -14.04 -47.9% -156.67 -14.04 July 2020 -46.1% -146.62 -13.08 -46.1% -146.62 -13.08
August 2020 -41.8% -140.24 -12.45 -41.8% -141.82 -12.62 August 2020 -40.4% -133.30 -11.83 -40.4% -134.87 -12.00
October 2020 -32.5% -110.54 -9.67 -35.5% -121.44 -10.69 October 2020 -31.1% -104.45 -9.09 -34.2% -115.34 -10.11
Total -38.5% -1,405.59 -124.35 -40.6% -1,485.31 -131.77 Total -36.6% -1,310.91 -115.79 -38.8% -1,390.63 -123.21

Appendix D: Estimated Results at Route Group Level
More detailed break-down of the information is available in the COVID-19 Air Traffic Dashboard
(https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/COVID-19-Air-Traffic-Dashboard.aspx).
In case of any discrepancy and inconsistency of information contained in this Appendix and the
Dashboard, the Appendix information shall prevail as the Dashboard uses non-cleaned operational data.
91
Estimated results by route group for 1Q/2Q 2020
(compared to Baseline)
Seat capacity Scheduled passenger (thousand) Gross revenue (USD, million)

Route Group DOM/INT
Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20
Africa Domestic -4.3% -1.6% -31.5% -96.6% -95.4% -90.3% -224 -262 -1,642 -3,496 -3,158 -3,204 -20 -23 -147 -312 -282 -286
Africa - Asia/Pacific International 5.2% -18.7% -45.8% -94.6% -90.5% -89.8% 18 -91 -207 -363 -344 -338 10 -51 -115 -201 -190 -187
Africa - Middle East International -5.2% -5.9% -55.8% -95.9% -94.5% -91.4% -61 -194 -1,627 -2,616 -2,559 -2,701 -13 -42 -356 -573 -561 -592
Africa - North America International -7.9% -2.1% -25.4% -87.1% -87.1% -87.1% -16 -13 -77 -187 -186 -224 -12 -9 -56 -137 -137 -165
Africa & Middle East - Central America/Caribbean International 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Africa & Middle East - South America International 2.5% 5.4% -22.3% -83.7% -89.3% -86.0% 7 4 -42 -115 -113 -109 3 1 -18 -48 -47 -45
Central America/Caribbean Domestic -2.1% -2.3% -20.4% -83.9% -85.9% -71.7% -94 -150 -1,668 -4,399 -4,537 -3,851 -7 -11 -125 -330 -340 -289
Central America/Caribbean - Europe International -0.2% 1.2% -18.7% -94.6% -91.5% -88.9% 34 -9 -528 -1,426 -1,195 -1,231 12 -3 -181 -487 -408 -421
Central America/Caribbean - North America International 5.4% 5.2% -19.9% -91.3% -91.4% -87.0% 502 181 -3,558 -7,754 -7,151 -7,343 79 28 -558 -1,217 -1,122 -1,152
Central America/Caribbean - South America International 5.7% 5.7% -25.7% -96.6% -94.8% -94.7% 77 49 -466 -1,195 -1,253 -1,217 14 9 -85 -218 -229 -222
China Domestic -9.9% -75.4% -60.1% -55.4% -36.7% -24.7% -8,513 -46,714 -37,118 -30,975 -23,837 -19,204 -749 -4,111 -3,266 -2,726 -2,098 -1,690
China - Europe International 2.6% -51.8% -73.9% -93.0% -90.8% -91.9% 59 -974 -1,542 -2,012 -2,024 -2,107 18 -296 -468 -611 -614 -639
China - Middle East International 5.7% -56.2% -76.5% -91.7% -95.7% -82.3% 54 -297 -460 -585 -564 -535 13 -73 -113 -143 -138 -131
China - North America International 3.6% -44.6% -66.2% -92.4% -87.4% -90.2% 56 -696 -1,104 -1,540 -1,563 -1,596 23 -280 -443 -618 -627 -641
China & South West Asia - North Asia International -0.1% -43.3% -84.2% -89.6% -88.6% -91.7% -62 -3,434 -5,918 -5,876 -5,812 -5,958 -11 -611 -1,053 -1,045 -1,034 -1,060
China & South West Asia - Pacific South East Asia International -1.5% -47.1% -71.9% -90.9% -90.4% -93.0% -265 -5,533 -8,005 -9,098 -8,938 -9,033 -57 -1,198 -1,733 -1,969 -1,934 -1,955
Europe Domestic 3.2% 2.4% -30.9% -88.0% -86.9% -68.0% 742 55 -11,472 -23,357 -24,477 -22,105 60 4 -929 -1,892 -1,983 -1,790
Europe - Middle East International 1.5% 0.2% -43.5% -89.7% -89.3% -84.6% 396 -87 -3,938 -7,344 -6,784 -7,003 73 -16 -725 -1,351 -1,248 -1,289
Europe - North Africa International 0.6% 1.6% -40.6% -97.8% -96.7% -95.6% 56 -43 -1,760 -3,991 -3,152 -4,317 8 -6 -259 -588 -465 -636
Europe - North America International 6.8% 5.4% -34.1% -91.2% -93.4% -91.3% 501 160 -3,071 -7,299 -8,541 -9,399 157 50 -964 -2,291 -2,681 -2,950
Europe - North Asia International 5.6% 5.2% -41.7% -89.7% -90.6% -88.4% 60 -36 -544 -1,085 -1,109 -1,135 28 -17 -255 -509 -520 -532
Europe - Pacific South East Asia International -2.6% 0.1% -13.8% -91.5% -90.8% -90.5% -28 -159 -582 -1,413 -1,276 -1,258 -14 -79 -291 -706 -638 -629
Europe - South America International -4.9% -4.8% -36.7% -95.5% -93.3% -90.2% -44 -83 -680 -1,354 -1,357 -1,374 -16 -30 -243 -484 -485 -491
Europe - South West Asia International 1.8% 2.9% -36.4% -89.9% -88.5% -90.4% 59 -73 -973 -1,817 -1,782 -1,877 16 -20 -262 -490 -480 -506
Europe - Sub Saharan Africa International 3.1% 3.4% -26.4% -90.3% -91.0% -87.0% 79 -3 -725 -1,573 -1,511 -1,505 33 -1 -307 -666 -640 -637
Intra Africa International -9.7% -10.1% -44.0% -95.4% -94.3% -91.6% -248 -350 -1,294 -2,324 -2,286 -2,272 -32 -46 -169 -303 -298 -297
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO-ICM MIDT, ICAO LTF, ICAO Statistics, IATA Economics, and IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook 92
(compared to Baseline)
Route Group DOM/INT
Intra Central America/Caribbean International 5.2% 4.3% -27.0% -89.7% -88.1% -82.0% 75 35 -562 -1,281 -1,344 -1,268 6 3 -47 -107 -112 -106
Intra China & South West Asia International -9.6% -60.5% -78.8% -88.7% -86.8% -89.9% -500 -3,012 -4,001 -4,579 -4,484 -4,525 -64 -383 -509 -583 -571 -576
Intra Europe International -1.6% -3.0% -46.1% -96.4% -95.6% -90.6% 116 -2,275 -28,892 -58,655 -62,827 -69,385 12 -232 -2,942 -5,972 -6,396 -7,064
Intra Middle East International -2.9% -4.4% -67.6% -94.8% -94.8% -93.1% 52 -184 -2,663 -3,707 -3,397 -3,720 6 -21 -305 -424 -389 -426
Intra North America International 4.1% 3.4% -23.1% -93.3% -96.8% -95.3% 125 8 -1,237 -2,728 -2,640 -2,874 17 1 -165 -364 -352 -384
Intra North Asia International -1.5% -2.0% -78.6% -96.4% -96.2% -96.1% -25 -220 -1,072 -1,666 -1,663 -1,673 -1 -12 -58 -89 -89 -90
Intra Pacific South East Asia International -0.6% -4.8% -45.3% -94.9% -95.9% -95.6% -68 -1,539 -4,834 -7,715 -7,559 -7,639 -10 -229 -720 -1,149 -1,125 -1,137
Intra South America International -8.9% -0.6% -37.0% -96.7% -95.8% -95.7% -171 -37 -853 -1,627 -1,665 -1,623 -30 -6 -148 -283 -289 -282
Latin America/Caribbean - China International 5.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Latin America/Caribbean - North Asia & Pacific South East Asia International 3.6% 0.9% -17.4% -78.8% -86.6% -87.9% 3 -5 -27 -66 -69 -71 2 -3 -18 -44 -47 -48
Middle East Domestic -9.4% 5.7% -37.7% -95.6% -94.1% -74.4% -123 124 -1,624 -3,409 -3,295 -2,860 -11 12 -151 -317 -307 -266
Middle East - North America International 2.7% 3.4% -26.9% -90.1% -92.7% -75.5% 55 16 -303 -743 -734 -719 26 7 -144 -353 -349 -342
Middle East - North Asia & Pacific South East Asia International -0.8% -1.6% -35.7% -82.0% -85.4% -76.6% 76 -97 -1,137 -2,273 -2,082 -1,955 20 -26 -305 -609 -557 -523
Middle East - South West Asia International -2.4% -0.9% -43.7% -96.6% -93.5% -82.8% 6 -364 -2,680 -4,857 -4,619 -4,341 1 -58 -423 -767 -729 -686
North America Domestic 2.5% 5.7% -13.9% -66.8% -72.9% -65.3% 2,773 4,110 -36,858 -69,253 -68,828 -65,158 322 477 -4,279 -8,040 -7,991 -7,565
North America - North Asia International 5.7% 5.7% -24.7% -85.0% -86.7% -82.5% 79 -83 -616 -1,345 -1,414 -1,397 25 -26 -194 -424 -446 -441
North America - Pacific South East Asia International 4.8% 5.7% -17.2% -88.6% -86.7% -85.9% 37 -49 -287 -646 -653 -649 29 -39 -229 -515 -521 -518
North America - South America International 5.6% 5.7% -27.1% -94.0% -94.8% -94.5% 86 39 -606 -1,267 -1,331 -1,378 34 16 -239 -499 -524 -543
North America - South West Asia International 4.4% 5.6% -27.8% -91.9% -87.9% -94.7% 9 -9 -92 -185 -180 -183 7 -7 -68 -136 -132 -135
North Asia Domestic 1.0% -1.8% -18.7% -54.6% -68.8% -57.8% 189 -1,094 -6,892 -9,227 -10,098 -7,448 9 -55 -345 -461 -505 -372
North Asia - Pacific South East Asia International 0.5% -6.9% -63.3% -89.0% -88.8% -86.9% -9 -1,045 -3,422 -3,928 -3,884 -3,773 -2 -270 -884 -1,015 -1,004 -975
Pacific South East Asia Domestic -4.3% -5.2% -28.3% -87.8% -84.2% -70.8% -850 -2,362 -11,637 -25,078 -23,566 -20,314 -52 -145 -713 -1,537 -1,444 -1,245
South America Domestic 2.0% 1.7% -32.6% -94.2% -93.2% -89.7% 448 -11 -6,255 -13,504 -13,882 -13,263 38 -1 -528 -1,140 -1,171 -1,119
South West Asia Domestic -3.8% 2.2% -26.2% -98.7% -94.0% -74.8% -796 -334 -5,250 -13,359 -13,938 -11,502 -49 -20 -322 -819 -854 -705
Domestic -2.0% -16.4% -30.7% -73.6% -71.6% -60.4% -6,448 -46,637 -120,417 -196,057 -189,616 -168,910 -459 -3,873 -10,805 -17,574 -16,975 -15,328
International -0.4% -9.6% -47.6% -93.6% -93.1% -90.2% 1,179 -20,504 -90,387 -158,234 -160,045 -169,704 409 -3,972 -16,050 -27,990 -28,131 -29,450
Total -1.4% -13.7% -37.5% -82.0% -80.7% -73.3% -5,269 -67,141 -210,804 -354,291 -349,660 -338,614 -50 -7,845 -26,855 -45,564 -45,106 -44,778
(compared to 1Q/2Q 2019)

Route Group DOM/INT
Africa Domestic 0.4% 5.5% -28.6% -96.5% -95.3% -90.0% -49 -27 -1,491 -3,428 -3,042 -3,082 -4 -2 -133 -306 -272 -275
Africa - Asia/Pacific International 18.1% -1.2% -37.9% -94.0% -89.6% -89.3% 61 -29 -159 -323 -310 -319 34 -16 -88 -178 -171 -177
Africa - Middle East International 7.2% 9.6% -50.1% -95.6% -94.1% -91.2% 260 147 -1,324 -2,376 -2,340 -2,593 57 32 -290 -520 -512 -568
Africa - North America International 7.6% 22.2% -13.0% -86.0% -85.4% -85.7% 14 22 -48 -171 -163 -200 11 16 -35 -126 -120 -147
Africa & Middle East - Central America/Caribbean International -100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Africa & Middle East - South America International -5.7% 1.9% -26.8% -81.8% -87.7% -84.8% -3 0 -49 -103 -97 -100 -1 0 -21 -43 -41 -42
Central America/Caribbean Domestic 9.2% 11.7% -12.0% -82.8% -85.1% -70.0% 418 425 -1,200 -4,089 -4,262 -3,561 31 32 -90 -307 -320 -267
Central America/Caribbean - Europe International -1.7% 2.6% -21.0% -94.4% -91.2% -88.5% 15 12 -568 -1,372 -1,153 -1,189 5 4 -194 -469 -394 -406
Central America/Caribbean - North America International 0.0% 3.9% -24.4% -91.5% -91.5% -87.4% 100 127 -4,038 -7,890 -7,171 -7,535 16 20 -634 -1,238 -1,125 -1,182
Central America/Caribbean - South America International 3.5% 3.6% -28.4% -96.4% -94.6% -94.5% 50 27 -510 -1,145 -1,208 -1,181 9 5 -93 -209 -220 -216
China Domestic -3.7% -73.4% -58.0% -55.7% -37.2% -25.2% -4,981 -42,473 -34,374 -31,137 -24,003 -19,366 -438 -3,738 -3,025 -2,740 -2,112 -1,704
China - Europe International 4.0% -49.0% -73.1% -93.1% -90.9% -92.2% 88 -878 -1,484 -2,025 -2,049 -2,171 27 -266 -450 -614 -622 -659
China - Middle East International 6.2% -56.4% -77.1% -91.8% -95.6% -82.3% 58 -297 -474 -590 -557 -533 14 -73 -116 -145 -136 -131
China - North America International -5.7% -48.2% -70.1% -92.8% -88.1% -90.7% -92 -787 -1,291 -1,630 -1,657 -1,691 -37 -316 -518 -654 -665 -679
China & South West Asia - North Asia International 21.7% -31.8% -81.5% -89.1% -88.2% -91.2% 1,223 -2,325 -4,938 -5,607 -5,603 -5,624 218 -414 -878 -997 -996 -1,000
China & South West Asia - Pacific South East Asia International 6.7% -45.6% -71.3% -91.0% -90.4% -93.0% 637 -5,206 -7,752 -9,081 -8,871 -8,968 138 -1,127 -1,678 -1,966 -1,920 -1,941
Europe Domestic 1.5% 1.8% -32.2% -88.1% -87.0% -68.3% 488 45 -11,802 -23,322 -24,507 -22,136 39 4 -956 -1,889 -1,985 -1,793
Europe - Middle East International 4.9% 6.1% -42.6% -89.6% -88.1% -84.8% 635 277 -3,813 -7,266 -6,070 -7,099 117 51 -702 -1,337 -1,117 -1,306
Europe - North Africa International -0.9% 5.6% -42.3% -97.7% -96.7% -95.1% 39 98 -1,828 -3,736 -3,147 -3,840 6 14 -269 -551 -464 -566
Europe - North America International 0.4% 4.1% -36.2% -91.3% -93.5% -91.4% 153 101 -3,284 -7,392 -8,603 -9,511 48 32 -1,031 -2,320 -2,700 -2,985
Europe - North Asia International 4.3% 6.4% -41.9% -89.4% -90.4% -88.3% 50 -25 -545 -1,051 -1,086 -1,121 24 -12 -255 -493 -509 -526
Europe - Pacific South East Asia International 5.5% 6.7% -19.2% -91.3% -90.7% -90.1% 115 -51 -688 -1,370 -1,253 -1,211 58 -25 -344 -685 -626 -605
Europe - South America International -2.7% 0.0% -36.9% -95.4% -93.1% -89.9% -8 -17 -679 -1,314 -1,320 -1,335 -3 -6 -243 -470 -472 -477
Europe - South West Asia International -8.3% -3.9% -43.0% -89.9% -87.9% -89.8% -140 -193 -1,187 -1,804 -1,691 -1,748 -38 -52 -320 -486 -456 -471
Europe - Sub Saharan Africa International 0.6% 5.2% -27.5% -90.4% -90.9% -87.0% 36 26 -751 -1,587 -1,492 -1,509 15 11 -318 -672 -632 -639
Intra Africa International 1.5% 5.3% -36.4% -95.0% -93.4% -90.7% 32 -22 -995 -2,094 -1,974 -2,029 4 -3 -130 -273 -258 -265
(compared to 1Q/2Q 2019)
Route Group DOM/INT
Intra Central America/Caribbean International 1.1% 3.9% -30.3% -90.0% -88.6% -82.6% 23 34 -622 -1,319 -1,397 -1,310 2 3 -52 -110 -116 -109
Intra China & South West Asia International -2.0% -57.0% -76.9% -87.4% -85.0% -88.7% -106 -2,623 -3,589 -4,066 -3,905 -3,989 -14 -334 -457 -517 -497 -508
Intra Europe International -0.6% 3.4% -43.0% -96.3% -95.6% -90.3% 914 739 -25,776 -56,592 -62,392 -66,229 93 75 -2,624 -5,762 -6,352 -6,743
Intra Middle East International 0.3% 0.6% -66.4% -94.5% -94.1% -92.8% 187 -4 -2,516 -3,513 -3,005 -3,537 21 0 -288 -402 -344 -405
Intra North America International -4.0% -1.1% -29.5% -93.6% -96.9% -95.4% -75 -87 -1,482 -2,819 -2,762 -2,899 -10 -12 -198 -376 -369 -387
Intra North Asia International -32.5% -31.0% -85.0% -96.6% -96.4% -96.3% -610 -708 -1,608 -1,760 -1,740 -1,744 -33 -38 -86 -95 -93 -94
Intra Pacific South East Asia International 7.1% 2.0% -42.7% -94.7% -95.7% -95.4% 545 -1,029 -4,468 -7,447 -7,151 -7,356 81 -153 -665 -1,109 -1,065 -1,095
Intra South America International -9.5% 2.5% -34.8% -96.4% -95.3% -95.1% -173 23 -785 -1,465 -1,472 -1,417 -30 4 -136 -254 -256 -246
Latin America/Caribbean - China International -66.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -5 -8 -8 -10 -10 -10 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -7
Latin America/Caribbean - North Asia & Pacific South East Asia International 2.9% 0.7% -19.3% -77.2% -84.7% -86.2% 2 -5 -29 -60 -60 -62 2 -3 -20 -41 -41 -42
Middle East Domestic -15.5% 2.0% -42.2% -95.6% -94.1% -74.6% -355 24 -1,863 -3,425 -3,312 -2,876 -33 2 -173 -319 -308 -268
Middle East - North America International 4.8% 6.6% -27.6% -90.0% -92.4% -75.2% 70 36 -309 -730 -697 -711 33 17 -147 -347 -332 -338
Middle East - North Asia & Pacific South East Asia International -0.5% 2.8% -36.0% -81.4% -83.6% -74.8% 91 1 -1,141 -2,188 -1,833 -1,793 24 0 -306 -586 -491 -480
Middle East - South West Asia International 2.9% 9.5% -39.7% -96.3% -92.7% -81.3% 274 71 -2,347 -4,435 -4,101 -3,945 43 11 -371 -700 -648 -623
North America Domestic 4.8% 11.5% -12.4% -65.6% -71.6% -63.3% 4,393 7,533 -35,250 -66,295 -65,169 -60,359 510 875 -4,092 -7,697 -7,566 -7,008
North America - North Asia International 3.5% 5.0% -26.7% -84.8% -86.2% -81.9% 53 -89 -651 -1,327 -1,364 -1,346 17 -28 -205 -419 -430 -424
North America - Pacific South East Asia International 6.5% 12.0% -18.2% -88.8% -86.5% -86.2% 51 -9 -294 -657 -642 -661 41 -7 -235 -524 -512 -527
North America - South America International -8.0% -2.8% -34.1% -94.1% -94.8% -94.3% -117 -64 -742 -1,290 -1,330 -1,339 -46 -25 -292 -508 -524 -527
North America - South West Asia International 20.4% 24.4% -14.9% -88.7% -83.0% -92.4% 35 18 -62 -130 -125 -128 26 13 -46 -96 -92 -94
North Asia Domestic 3.1% 2.3% -18.5% -54.5% -68.0% -57.3% 487 -597 -6,762 -9,122 -9,724 -7,230 24 -30 -338 -456 -486 -361
North Asia - Pacific South East Asia International 15.9% 8.6% -59.9% -88.9% -88.6% -86.8% 670 -377 -3,016 -3,876 -3,796 -3,727 173 -97 -779 -1,001 -981 -963
Pacific South East Asia Domestic 1.3% 3.1% -24.3% -87.2% -83.2% -69.5% 652 -371 -10,177 -23,659 -22,004 -19,123 40 -23 -624 -1,450 -1,348 -1,172
South America Domestic 3.2% 5.6% -28.5% -93.9% -92.8% -88.8% 778 625 -5,260 -12,659 -12,866 -11,924 66 53 -444 -1,068 -1,086 -1,006
South West Asia Domestic 0.2% 6.6% -23.0% -98.7% -93.8% -73.7% 16 418 -4,473 -12,615 -13,135 -10,705 1 26 -274 -773 -805 -656
Domestic 1.3% -11.8% -28.6% -73.0% -70.7% -59.1% 1,846 -34,398 -112,652 -189,750 -182,023 -160,363 236 -2,802 -10,150 -17,005 -16,288 -14,511
International 1.9% -4.9% -46.2% -93.4% -93.0% -89.9% 5,152 -13,075 -85,850 -153,610 -155,594 -163,712 1,140 -2,705 -15,520 -27,301 -27,306 -28,601
Total 1.5% -9.0% -35.8% -81.6% -80.2% -72.5% 6,998 -47,473 -198,502 -343,361 -337,618 -324,076 1,376 -5,507 -25,670 -44,306 -43,594 -43,112
Appendix E: Summary of Analysis by Other Organizations
96
ACI: Airport would lose USD 97.4 billion
gross revenues in 2020
Passenger number - both interntional and Airport revenue - both aeronautical and non-
domestic for full year 2020 aeronautical for full year 2020
Region
million and % change from 2020 "business as usual" USD billion and % change from 2020 "business as
baseline scenario usual" baseline scenario
Africa -114 -47.3% -2.2 -51.2%
Asia/Pacific -1,797 -52.9% -29.4 -58.9%
Europe -1,416 -57.1% -37.1 -62.6%
Latin America/Caribbean -289 -44.2% -5.3 -50.5%
Middle East -201 -46.9% -7.0 -53.0%
North America -859 -41.1% -16.4 -47.3%
Total -4,676 -50.4% -97.4 -56.7%
https://aci.aero/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/200505-Third-Economic-Impact-Bulletin-FINAL.pdf
Source: ACI Advisory Bulletin – Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 on the Airport Business (dated 5 May 2020) 97
IATA: Airlines would lose USD 84 billion
net profits in 2020
Revenue Passenger Kilometres

(RPKs) - both interntional and Net profit for full year 2020
domestic for full year 2020
IATA’s estimates are based on “region Region of airline registration
of airline registration” while ICAO uses year-on-year % change from USD billion,
“all traffic from States in each region” 2019 level compared to 2019 level
for the regional break-down.
Africa -58.5% -2.0
IATA recently updated its estimated
loss of gross passenger revenues from Asia/Pacific -53.8% -29.0
USD 314 billion to USD 371 billion
(USD 419 billion including passengers, Europe -56.4% -21.5
cargo and others) but no regional
break-down was released. Latin America/Caribbean -57.4% -4.0
Middle East -56.1% -4.8
North America -52.6% -23.1
Total -54.7% -84.3
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/airline-industry-economic-performance-june-2020-data-tables/
Source: IATA Airline Industry Economic Performance - June 2020 - Data tables (dated 9 June 2020) 98
EUOCONTROL: A loss of € 110 billion for airlines,
airports and ANSPs in Europe in 2020
The Coordinated
Measures
Scenario
envisages a loss of
45% of flights (5
million) in 2020,
while the
Uncoordinated
Measures
Scenario would
result in the loss
of 57% of flights
(6.2 million).
https://www.eurocontrol.int/covid19#traffic-scenarios
Source: EUROCONTROL COVID-19 Impact on the European Air Traffic Network 99

AFRAA: African Airlines would lose USD 8.1
billion passenger revenues in 2020
AFRAA’s estimates
(USD 8.1 billion loss)
is greater than IATA’s
estimates (USD 6
billion loss). Both
estimates are for
airlines registered in
Africa.
http://afraa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CoVID-19-Impact-assessment.pdf
Source: AFRAA COVID-19 Impact Assessment (dated 2 June 2020) 100
UNWTO: A loss of USD 910 to 1,170 billion in
international tourism receipts in 2020
International Tourism
Three scenarios Arrivals
dependent upon re-opening of borders
International Tourism Arrivals
(year-on-year % change from 2019 level)
International Tourism
Receipts
https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-
05/Barometer%20-%20May%202020%20-%20Short.pdf
Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer – Special Focus on the Impact of COVID-19 (May 2020) 101
UNCTAD: USD 1.2 to 3.3 trillion global GDP loss
in 2020 due to the break in international tourism
Loss of 1.5%, 2.8% and 4.2% of world’s GDP, respectively
https://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=2810
Source: UNCTAD COVID-19 and Tourism: Assessing the Economic Consequences (July 2020) 102
WTTC: A loss of 197 million jobs in travel and
tourism sector in 2020
2020 forecasts – COVID-19 impact on travel and tourism sector

Total Job Loss (million) Total GDP Loss (USD billion*)
Region
Best-Case Baseline Worst-Case Best-Case Baseline Worst-Case
Africa -7.6 -10.9 -17.4 -53 -75 -120
Asia/Pacific -59.7 -69.3 -115.0 -980 -1,137 -1,888
Europe -14.2 -18.4 -29.5 -771 -1,000 -1,608
Latin America/Caribbean -5.9 -7.7 -12.4 -111 -143 -229
Middle East -2.7 -3.4 -4.9 -99 -125 -179
North America -8.1 -11.4 -18.2 -673 -955 -1,520
Total -98.2 -121.1 -197.5 -2,686 -3,435 -5,543
Worst-case scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from September for short-haul and regional travel, from October for mid-haul and from November
for long-haul. Baseline scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from June for regional travel, July for short-haul or regional travel; from August for mid-
haul, and from September for long-haul. Best-case scenario: Current measures starting to ease from June for short-haul and regional travel; from July for mid-
haul and from August for long-haul. * based on 2019 prices and exchange rates.
https://wttc.org/News-Article/More-than-197m-Travel-Tourism-jobs-will-be-lost-due-to-prolonged-travel-restrictions
Source: WTTC news release (dated 10 June 2020) 103

WTO: Global trade falling by 13 to 32% in 2020
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr858_e.htm
Source: WTO news release (dated 22 June 2020) 104

IMF & World Bank: Global economy is projected
to contract by -4.9% to -5.2% in 2020
The Projections assume that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and
containment efforts can be gradually unwound
Real GDP IMF World Bank Real GDP IMF World Bank
(Percent change from previous year) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 (Percent change from previous year) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
World 2.9 -4.9 5.4 2.4 -5.2 4.2 Emerging market and developing economies
Advanced economies 1.7 -8.0 4.8 1.6 -7.0 3.9 Middle East and Central Asia 1.0 -4.7 3.3
United States 2.3 -8.0 4.5 2.3 -6.1 4.0 Middle East and North Africa -0.2 -4.2 2.3
Euro Area 1.3 -10.2 6.0 1.2 -9.1 4.5 Saudi Arabia 0.3 -6.8 3.1 0.3 -3.8 2.5
Japan 0.7 -5.8 2.4 0.7 -6.1 2.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.1 -3.2 3.4 2.2 -2.8 3.1
Emerging market and developing economies 3.7 -3.0 5.9 3.5 -2.5 4.6 Nigeria 2.2 -5.4 2.6 2.2 -3.2 1.7
Emerging and Developing Asia 5.5 -0.8 7.4 South Africa 0.2 -8.0 3.5 0.2 -7.1 2.9
East Asia and Pacific 5.9 0.5 6.6 Latin America and the Caribbean 0.1 -9.4 3.7 0.8 -7.2 2.8
China 6.1 1.0 8.2 6.1 1.0 6.9 Brazil 1.1 -9.1 3.6 1.1 -8.0 2.2
South Asia 4.7 -2.7 2.8 Mexico -0.3 -10.5 3.3 -0.3 -7.5 3.0
India 4.2 -4.5 6.0 4.2 -3.2 3.1 High-income countries 1.7 -6.8 3.8
Emerging and Developing Europe 2.1 -5.8 4.3 Developing countries 3.7 -2.4 4.7
Europe and Central Asia 2.2 -4.7 3.6 Low-income countries 5.2 -1.0 5.2 5.0 1.0 4.6
Russia 1.3 -6.6 4.1 1.3 -6.0 2.7 * IMF and World Bank use different Region/State classification; 2019: estimates; 2020 and 2021: projections
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
Source: IMF and World Bank Word Economic Outlook (June 2020) 105
OECD: Sharp decrease in consumers’ expenditures
for air travel due to containment measures
http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/
Source: OECD Evaluating the Initial Impact of Containment Measures (updated 14 April 2020) 106
CCSA: Compilation of economic, social, regional and
statistical impacts
The new report will be published by the Committee

for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA)
under the auspice of the UN-DESA
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/ccsa/documents/covid19-report-ccsa.pdf
Source: CCSA How Covid-19 Is Changing the World: A Statistical Perspective (May 2020) 107
Contact: Economic Development [email protected]
https://www.icao.int/sustai
nability/Pages/COVID-19- https://www.icao.int/s
Air-Traffic-Dashboard.aspx ustainability/Pages/Eco
nomic-Impacts-of-
https://www.icao.int/Newsr COVID-19.aspx
oom/Pages/Billion-fewer-
international-air-travellers- https://www.icao.int/su
this-year-according-to-latest- stainability/Pages/Air-
ICAO-forecast.aspx Traffic-Monitor.aspx

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Effects of Novel Coronavirus

(COVID-19) on Civil Aviation:

• Executive Summary: Economic

– Overall reduction ranging from 43% to 51% of seats offered by airlines

The impacts depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and

International passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline

Domestic passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline

World passenger traffic evolution

Comparison of passenger numbers and capacity

Source: ICAO ADS-B and OAG plus estimates 7

Note: Compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned)

Source: ICAO estimates 8

Scenarios for passenger seat capacity compared to Baseline (business as usual)

V-shaped path (reference only,

Note: Compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned)

Source: ICAO estimates 10

Note: Compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned)

Source: ICAO estimates 11

• Analysis focuses on simultaneous supply shock and drop in demand

• Taking into account the heterogeneity, distinction is made:

• Analysis is based on forward-looking scenarios, which will be continuously

• Geographical disparity of international-domestic passenger traffic mix

Share of international-domestic passenger traffic by region (2019)

Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates 17

Number of Domestic Passengers by Route Group (2019)

International seat capacity reduction Domestic seat capacity reduction

Seat capacity reduction (%)

Domestic passenger traffic in China already bottomed out in mid-February,

Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data 20

Capacity evolution of two largest domestic markets

Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data 21

Almost 80% of international seats offered in Asia/Pacific and Europe

Source: Estimates based on ICAO ADS-B operation data and OAG 22

Airlines announced/planned resumption of flights in early May, however,

Number of seats scheduled (millions)

Informal classification to describe different types of recessions:

World’s GDP Projections (by IMF)

Source: IMF Word Economic Outlook (April 2020) 25

The impact of COVID-

Source: IATA COVID-19 Updated Impact Assessment (dated 24 March 2020) 26

• Baseline: counterfactual scenario, in which the COVID-19 pandemic does not

• Notwithstanding the elevated uncertainty surrounding the outlook, a scenario

• International and domestic passenger traffic has separate scenarios/paths

• Scenarios/paths are differentiated in terms of supply and demand, i.e.

• Supply and demand are influenced by:

• No consideration is made to social distancing requirements on aircraft, etc.

• Detailed scenario assumptions are summarized in Appendix B

• Baseline: originally-planned or business as usual

Scenario 1: Nike swoosh- and W-shaped Scenario 2: U- and L-shaped

International + Domestic (+2.8% YoY)

6.0% 5.8% 5.7%

International (+2.5% YoY) Domestic (+3.0% YoY)

Seat capacity growth YoY

4.0% 4.5% 4.7%

International + Domestic International + Domestic

International (-54% to -64% YoY) Domestic (-33% to -39% YoY)

-44% -48% -50%

-40% -38% -34%

International + Domestic (+151 million)