University of Basra

College of engineering
Petroleum department

Prepared by
Sajad Falah Radha

April 18, 2020

Summary
In this report, I will talk about Modeling method briefly. So, I will talk about
Analogies, decline curve analysis, Material Balance & P/Z analysis, Streamline
simulation, Finite difference reservoir simulation and finally Integrated
production modeling.

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 Content page number

Summary 1

Table of content 11

analogical 1

Decline curve analysis 2

Material balance & P/Z analysis 4

Streamline simulation 5

Finite difference reservoir simulation 6

Integrated production modeling

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Reference
9

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Analogical models
Analogical models use properties of mature reservoirs that are either geographically
or petrophysical similar to the target reservoir to attempt to predict the reservoir
performance. The need for analogical modeling stems from two features that are
often present in the initial generation of scientific theories. First, as with exploratory
factor analysis, for example, the generation of theories takes the form of explanatory
reasoning known as existential abduction, through which the existence, but not the
nature, of theoretical entities is postulated. In these situations, a suitable research
strategy is required in order to learn about the nature of these hidden entities.
Analogical modeling is an appropriate strategy for doing the required elaborative
work. Second, the postulation of theoretical entities through existential abduction
confers an assessment of initial plausibility on those postulations. However, for
claims about those latent entities to have the status of genuine knowledge, further
evaluative work has to be done. The construction of appropriate analogical models
serves to assess further, the plausibility of the expanded understanding they afford,
as well as to expand our understanding of those entities. Analog is a common method
in newly-found, newly-developed or initially developed oilfield or block to
determine recovery efficiency. Determination of analogical parameters, and
selection of analogical reservoir are the key elements to determine the target
reservoir reasonably. Through recovery empirical formula to determine analogical
assessment parameters, apply analytic hierarchy process to determine weighted
incidence degree of assessment parameters, carry on multi-target decision ideal point
method to optimize analogical reservoir, finally determine the target reservoir
recovery efficiency.
Applications of analogical models: Before drilling, limited or no data are available,
recovery factor, rate, decline rate, well spacing and recovery mechanisms from a
similar well can be used to develop a new field
Advantage: simple, low cost, suitable for reservoirs of similar properties with similar
strategies
Disadvantage: cannot be used for a reservoir of similar properties but of different
strategies
Example: staged field trial is one form of analogy

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Decline curve analysis
Decline curve analysis, introduced in the 1940s, is one of the most popular methods
to date for evaluating the future production potential of oil and gas wells [1,2]. Oil
and gas reserves can be estimated by identifying and extrapolating the decline
characteristics of wells in a field. The methodology is intuitive, and currently used
to evaluate the future production potential of wells in both conventional and
unconventional reservoirs based on current trends. As a reservoir is depleted during
production, oil and gas wells exhibit an identifiable declining trend in rates that can
be extrapolated for the future and analyzed to obtain valuable information.

Objectives
Decline curve analysis may provide the following information:
• A definitive trend that can be identified from well and field production data
• Future oil and gas rates
• Expected ultimate recovery (EUR) from the wells
• Economic life of the well and field
• Field reserves
• Predicted oil cuts and water cuts in a well
• Identification of flow regimes
• Analysis of reservoir characteristics based on production data
The advantages of decline curve analysis are as follows:
• Decline curve analysis is a quick and intuitive method to predict future production
rates and ultimate recovery. In certain cases, reservoir engineers perform analysis of
hundreds of wells in a short period of time.
• The approach is based on empirical models that are simple yet powerful. Graphical
techniques are used to match production rates and extrapolate in the future.
• Recent advances in decline curve analysis include the recognition of various flow
regimes in a complex geological setting such as ultralight shale with induced and
natural fractures.
• Decline curve analysis may involve implementation of multiple models in various
stages of production in order to predict future performance accurately.
• The analysis may readily lead to the estimation of the cumulative well production
until the economic limit for the well is reached.
• As monthly and annual production volumes are predicted, cash flow analysis for
the well or the field can also be performed with ease.
• The method is applied not only for individual wells; in many cases, the aggregate
declining trend of the entire field can be analyzed. The ultimate recovery from the

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entire oil or gas, and petroleum reserves, can be estimated when all the producing
wells are included in the analysis.
• Based on an identifiable trend, future water cut in a well can also be predicted.
• In the case where the well exhibits an unexpected trend, further analysis can be
performed about the well and the reservoir. For example, oil production from a new
reservoir may not show an appreciable decline. A strong water drive may be
suspected, among other factors.
• Decline curve analysis is not resource intensive in comparison to reservoir
simulation. The analysis can be conducted in a relatively short period of time, often
with the aid of software applications available in the industry.
Limitations
The method, although straightforward and transparent, is applicable only when the
well production rate is declining with an identifiable trend. The analysis requires
sufficient well rate data ranging from several months to a year to predict future
performance with confidence. In many cases, however, a definitive decline trend is
not identifiable. This is due to the fact that management of oil reservoirs involves
fluid injection as part of pressure maintenance operation. Other factors include two-
phase flow of oil and gas, stimulation, hydraulic fracturing, operational issues, well
recompletion, perforation to produce from a different layer, and water breakthrough.
Again, many wells produce under rate constraints where production rate remains
the same without any decline for a long period of time. Hence, more robust methods,
such as reservoir simulation are required to analyze well and reservoir performance.
With the development of unconventional resources including shale gas reservoirs,
traditional decline curve analysis is found to be inadequate to estimate ultimate
recovery or reserves. Fluid flow characteristics of shale gas can be quite different to
that of conventional gas production. Shale has ultralow permeability and production
takes place through an extensive and complex network of induced and natural
fractures. Existence of various flow regimes (linear, transient, boundary dominated)
during the productive life of the well is important to. As observed frequently, the
decline trend of wells producing from shale formations changes significantly after
the initial period of production. Extrapolation of initial decline characteristics to the
economic limit of the well in the future may result in overestimation or
underestimation in ultimate recovery.

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Material Balance & P/Z analysis
The material balance method is a valuable tool used by reservoir engineers to analyze
and predict the performance of oil and gas reservoirs. The method is based on the
fundamental concept that mass can be neither destroyed nor created. It is more
detailed than decline curve analysis, yet simpler than full-fledged reservoir
simulation requiring substantial resources.

Applications of the classical material balance method

The classical material balance method is used to analyze various important aspects
of oil and gas reservoirs as follow:
1) Estimation of original oil and gas in place
2) Assessment of natural producing mechanisms, including gas cap drive, solution
gas drive, and water drive.
3) History matching of past performance of the reservoir
4) Prediction of future reservoir performance

Assumptions and limitations

The important assumptions in formulating the MBE include the following:

1) The oil or gas reservoir is modeled as a “homogeneous tank,” i.e., rock and fluid
properties
are the same throughout the reservoir.
2) Fluid production and injection occur at single production and single injection
points, respectively.
3) The analysis is independent of the direction of fluid flow in the reservoir.
Applications of the material balance method in oil and gas reservoirs
This section describes the techniques in using MBE to estimate the various reservoir
properties by simple graphical techniques. The MBE can be rewritten in the form
of a straight line (y = mx + c) under certain simplifying assumptions, and can be
solved for reservoir properties by noting the slope and intercept. Most of the present-
day analysis is based on material balance software applications available in the
industry.

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Streamline simulation
Streamline simulation provides an alternative to cell-based grid
techniques in reservoir simulation. Streamlines represent a snapshot of the
instantaneous flow field and thereby produce data such as drainage/irrigation
regions associated with producing/injecting wells and flow rate allocation between
injector/producer pairs that are not easily determined by other simulation techniques.

Applicability of streamline simulation

The power of streamline simulation lies in its simplicity. The main objective is to
capture how injected reservoir volumes (usually water and/or gas) displace resident
reservoir volumes given the following:

• Well locations
• Well rates
• Reservoir geometry
• Geological description
One of the key underlying assumptions in streamline simulation is that the system
be close to incompressibility. This decouples saturations from the underlying
pressure field and allows each streamline to be treated as being independent from
the streamlines next to it.
Many fields under waterflooding or other pressure maintenance schemes are
excellent candidates for streamline modeling and have been successfully modeled in
this way. Forecast simulations under the assumption of void age replacement are
another good example where streamlines can be very effective. Even miscible gas
injection schemes have been successfully modeled. At high pressures, the
displacement of resident oil by gas is primarily an issue of simulating local sweep
efficiency and channeling, something streamlines are designed to model without
incurring numerical difficulties associated with other formulations. An early
application to stream drive projects was presented by Emanuel. Crane and
Blunt used streamlines to model solute transport. More recently, streamlines have
been shown to be very effective in modeling fractured reservoirs using a dual
porosity formulation.

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Finite Difference Modelling
Many research works have been done to improve on the accuracy of the results
obtained from finite difference modeling of oil reservoirs, and many are still being
carried out. The use of finite difference modeling approach in oil reservoir for the
fluid flow makes it possible to have a detailed feel of the physics of the problem and
compressibility effects which no other modeling method does better. Research
projects which seeks to improve the mathematics of reservoir simulation/modeling
are underway, and major hindrances to getting accurate results from reservoir
modeling are been looked into.
Some of the areas which are been worked on are;
1) Accurate treatment of complex well geometries
2) Dynamic gridding for better saturation accuracy
3) Flexible Cartesian grids
4) Curvilinear orthogonal grids
Oil reservoir continuity has also been researched on using fingerprints method of
geochemistry studies. As it had been stated earlier that an oil field can comprise
more than a reservoir, different reservoirs in the same oil field can be identified by
the use of fingerprints technology, since the composition of the fluids is a
characteristic of a specific reservoir. This is a useful tool in the determination of the
number of reservoirs in an oil field and also how they are oriented to each other
whether vertically, laterally or compartmentalized as the variation of the fluid
fingerprints is also a function of the reservoir’s orientation. Variation in the
fingerprints of the fluids obtained for different reservoirs results from differences in
source faces and source maturity variation. Studies conducted on oil reservoir using
fingerprints technique have led to the establishment of the fact that the amount of oil
produced by a reservoir is uniform during its lifespan, and this is a simplifying
condition in oil reservoir modeling which makes it possible to assume a constant
production rate.

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Integrated Production System Modelling
An Integrated Production System Model (IPSM) is a model which simulates a field
(or group of fields) from reservoir through the wells, pipelines and process facilities
to sales or export. For Deepwater subsea systems this includes all the subsea
infrastructure and topsides processing facilities. The components of the model
should be sufficiently accurate to represent the behavior of the system at least in
terms of pressure and rate. PM offers a cost-effective technique for assessing and
optimizing field development concepts, it allows for evaluation of various scenario
plays whether they be well pairing, well count, well phasing, subsea layout, pipeline
sizing, flow stream scheduling or process configuration to achieve maximum
recovery of any particular fluid stream. IPM can also be used as a change
management tool during the execution phase of a development project to understand
the impact of change on the system.
The Modeling Challenge
The Bonga assets pose a complex system with two subsea tie-backs and an injection
system. The modelling challenge with such a system includes:
- Managing pressure loss in the integrated production system
- Managing flow assurance issues
- Handling of combined flow streams of dissimilar fluids
- Production optimization of the overall system against common system constraints

Application of Integrated Production System Modelling

Maximizing hydrocarbon production from a field and reducing production cost is a

key factor to the development of an oil and gas asset. Every aspect of the oil/gas
operation is characterized by high cost. Operators seek to squeeze every drop from
current assets and optimize design of new facilities and methods as increased cost
converges with dwindling supply. A major boast to this efficiency drive is the
increasing application of technology to match uncertainties inherent in the
development of the value chain. An integrated model has been designed in this study
to assess the potential of using integrated production system modelling (IPSM) as a
decision support tool for the management of an asset in the Niger Delta. The model
developed shows improvement of asset value and operational cost reduction can be
achieved through the integration of various components of the value chain
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(Upstream-midstream-downstream) throughout the life of the field. The approach is
an improvement on the convectional silo approach in the development and
optimization of the components of the production system of the value chain which
is dynamic and tightly connected. It also shows that integrated oil and gas production
systems simulation and optimization in Niger Delta fields has the clear potential to
meet the foregoing optimization challenges in Niger Delta fields and thus assist oil
and gas producers achieve their business goals while meeting energy needs.

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Reference
❖ Heriot-watt University Reservoir simulation.
❖ Reservoir simulation second edition -Michael
❖ Principles of applied reservoir simulation
(Gulif_professional_publshing)
❖ Reservoir Engineering (The Fundamentals, Simulation, and
Management of Conventional and Unconventional Recoveries)-
Abdu’s Satter-Ghulam M. Iqbal.
❖ Petrowiki and SPE paper