National Geographic - November 2015 USA PDF
National Geographic - November 2015 USA PDF
National Geographic - November 2015 USA PDF
Bill Nye’s
Global
Meltdown
Sunday, November 1
on the National
Geographic Channel
Cargill is working with The Nature Conservancy We’ve given $1 million to 8,800 smallholder We’ve helped 1,000 farmers update their
to help farmers in northern Brazil restore farmers across 18 cooperatives in South operations in Argentina and Paraguay with
deforested lands and grow cocoa in the shade Sumatra, Indonesia, awarding them for their sustainable production practices—including
of the forest canopy, boosting biodiversity. use of sustainable harvesting methods. compliance with rules limiting deforestation,
In 2014, 120,000 cocoa seeds and 74,000 reducing greenhouse gas emissions and
banana seedlings were delivered to farmers. improving labor conditions.
Seeing the forest
for the trees
O F F I C I A L J O U R N A L O F T H E N AT I O N A L G E O G R A P H I C S O C I ET Y
FROM THE EDITOR
Climate Change
Follow scientist, engineer, and comedian Bill Nye as he explores his feelings about climate change,
what’s gone wrong with our planet, and how we can fix it. Bill Nye’s Global Meltdown, an episode of
National Geographic’s Explorer series, is hosted by Nye and airs on November 1.
CHIEF CONTENT OFFICER Chris Johns PRESIDENT AND CEO Gary E. Knell
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Brown, Tracy Pelt
YourShot.ngm.com
Assignment We asked members of National Geographic’s Your Shot
community to document how the changing climate is affecting where they live.
8
is here.
How can we power
AR C T I C
NORTH
AMERICA
AT L AN T I C
O CE A N
O CE AN
BRAZIL
SOUTH
AMERICA
IC CIRCLE
ANTARCT
Cooler Warmer
NG STAFF
SOURCES: STEVEN MOSHER AND ROBERT ROHDE, BERKELEY EARTH
explain why the warming has happened unevenly and fitfully, but not the warming trend itself,
which has overwhelmed the cooling effect of the ash from volcanoes. It has coincided over the past
half century with a surge in carbon emissions from our rapidly industrializing world. Finding a way
to stop those emissions—and climate change—is the challenge for the next half century.
O CEA N
Svalbard
(NORWAY)
ARCTIC CIRCLE
ASIA
EUROPE
CHI N A PAC I F I C
ER
TAIWAN TROPIC OF CANC
AFRICA O CE AN
EQUATOR
IN DIAN
TROPIC OF CAPRICORN
AUSTRALIA
OCE AN
A N TA R C T I C A
F I LSON.COM
CLIMATE CHANGE SURVIVAL GUIDE
How to Fix It
Reading Henry David Thoreau’s notes on when the
blueberry bushes bloomed each year in Concord, Massa-
chusetts, we see that spring there now comes weeks earlier
than it did 150 years ago. Scientists attribute this in part to
climate change. Thoreau, an advocate for living responsibly,
might assign blame more pointedly. Since climate change
is fueled by individuals, businesses, cities, and nations
around the world, shouldn’t solutions to it come from them?
In his 1863 essay “Life Without Principle,” Thoreau issues
a challenge: “Let us consider the way in which we spend
our lives.” A century and a half later, in a warming world, the
challenge stands. —Patricia Edmonds
Jerry G.
PHOTOGRAPHER
WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES
ACTOR PORTRAYAL
Indication and Limitations of Use you have Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia syndrome type
Trulicity is a once-weekly injectable prescription 2 (MEN 2).
medicine to improve blood sugar (glucose) in adults
with type 2 diabetes mellitus. It should be used along Do not take Trulicity if you have had an allergic reaction to
with diet and exercise. Trulicity is not recommended as dulaglutide or any of the other ingredients in Trulicity.
the ⇒rst medication to treat diabetes. It has not been
studied in people who have had in⇓ammation of the Trulicity may cause serious side eects, including:
pancreas (pancreatitis). Trulicity should not be used • In⇓ammation of your pancreas (pancreatitis). If you
by people with a history of severe gastrointestinal (GI) have pain in your stomach area (abdomen) that is severe
disease, people with type 1 diabetes, or people with and will not go away, stop taking Trulicity and call your
diabetic ketoacidosis. It is not a substitute for insulin. healthcare provider right away. The pain may happen
It has not been studied with long-acting insulin or in with or without vomiting. It may be felt going from your
children under 18 years of age. abdomen through to your back.
• Low blood sugar (hypoglycemia). If you are using
Important Safety Information another medicine that can cause low blood sugar (such
Tell your healthcare provider if you get a lump or as insulin or a sulfonylurea) while taking Trulicity, your
swelling in your neck, have hoarseness, trouble risk for getting low blood sugar (hypoglycemia) may be
swallowing, or shortness of breath while taking higher. Signs and symptoms of low blood sugar may
Trulicity. These may be symptoms of thyroid include dizziness, blurred vision, anxiety, irritability, mood
cancer. In studies with rats or mice, Trulicity and changes, sweating, slurred speech, hunger, confusion
medicines that work like Trulicity caused thyroid or drowsiness, shakiness, weakness, headache, fast
tumors, including thyroid cancer. It is not known heartbeat, or feeling jittery. Talk to your healthcare
if Trulicity will cause thyroid tumors or a type of provider about low blood sugar and how to manage it.
thyroid cancer called medullary thyroid carcinoma • Serious allergic reactions. Stop taking Trulicity and get
(MTC) in people. Do not take Trulicity if you or any medical help right away if you have symptoms of a serious
of your family members have ever had MTC or if allergic reaction, such as itching, rash, or diculty breathing.
Find out if you’re eligible to pay as little as $25 for each of your ⇒rst 26 prescriptions at Trulicity.com
Click to
Activate
Your Within
Jerry uses what’s inside him to reach his goals. For hisis
art, he uses his passion. For his diabetes, he helps hiss
body release its own insulin.
Ask your doctor about once-weekly, non-insulin Trulicity™.
• It helps activate your body to do what it’s • It’s taken once a week
eek and works 24/7,
24/7
24/7
/7,
7
supposed to do—release its own insulin responding when your blood sugar risesris
ises
es
• It can help improve A1C and blood sugar y-to-use pen.† You don’t nee
• It comes in an easy-to-use need
eed
d
numbers to see or handle a needle
• You may lose a little weight* †
In a study, 94% of people
e said it was easy to use.
*Trulicity is not a weight loss drug.
• Kidney problems (kidney failure). In people who The most common side eects with Trulicity may
have kidney problems, diarrhea, nausea, and include: nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, decreased appetite,
vomiting may cause a loss of ⇓uids (dehydration). and indigestion. Talk to your healthcare provider about any
This may cause kidney problems to get worse. side eect that bothers you or does not go away. These
• Severe stomach problems. Trulicity may cause are not all the possible side eects of Trulicity. Call your
stomach problems, which could be severe. doctor for medical advice about side eects.
Tell your healthcare provider if you: You are encouraged to report side eects of prescription
• have or have had problems with your pancreas, drugs to the FDA. Visit www.fda.gov/medwatch or
kidneys, or liver. call 1-800-FDA-1088.
• have severe problems with your stomach, such as
slowed emptying of your stomach (gastroparesis) or Please see next page for additional information about
problems with digesting food. Trulicity, including Boxed Warning regarding possible
• have any other medical conditions. thyroid tumors including thyroid cancer.
• are pregnant or plan to become pregnant, or if you
become pregnant while taking Trulicity. It is not Please see Instructions for Use included with the pen.
known if Trulicity will harm your unborn baby. DG CON ISI 20APR2015
• are breastfeeding or plan to breastfeed. It is not
known if Trulicity passes into your breast milk. You
should not use Trulicity while breastfeeding without
⇒rst talking to your healthcare provider.
• are taking other medicines including prescription
and over-the-counter medicines, vitamins, and
herbal supplements. Trulicity may aect the way
some medicines work and some medicines may
aect the way Trulicity works.
• are taking other medicines to treat diabetes, DG97236 05/2015 ©Lilly USA, LLC
including insulin or sulfonylureas. 2015. All rights reserved.
Information for Patients about Trulicity (dulaglutide): Before using Trulicity tell your healthcare provider if you:
This is a brief summary of important information about Trulicity (Tru--li-si-tee). • have had problems with your pancreas, kidneys, or liver.
Please read the Medication Guide that comes with Trulicity before you start
• have severe problems with your stomach, such as slowed emptying of
taking it and each time you get a refill because there may be new information.
your stomach (gastroparesis) or problems digesting food.
This information is not meant to take the place of talking with your healthcare
provider or pharmacist. • have any other medical conditions.
What is Trulicity? • are pregnant or plan to become pregnant, or if you become pregnant while
taking Trulicity. It is not known if Trulicity will harm your unborn baby.
Trulicity is a once-weekly, injectable prescription medicine that may improve
blood sugar (glucose) in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and should be • are breastfeeding or plan to breastfeed. It is not known if Trulicity passes
used along with diet and exercise. into your breast milk. You should not use Trulicity while breastfeeding
without first talking to your healthcare provider.
• It is not recommended as the first choice of medicine for treating diabetes.
• are taking other medicines—including prescription and over-the-
• It is not known if it can be used in people who have had pancreatitis.
counter medicines, vitamins, and herbal supplements. Trulicity may affect
• It is not a substitute for insulin and is not for use in people with type 1 the way some medicines work and some medicines may affect the way
diabetes or people with diabetic ketoacidosis. Trulicity works.
• It is not recommended for use in people with severe stomach or intestinal • are taking other medicines to treat your diabetes including insulin or
problems. sulfonylureas.
• It is not known if it can be used with long-acting insulin or if it is safe and Before using Trulicity, talk to your healthcare provider about low blood
effective for use in children under 18 years of age. sugar and how to manage it.
What is the most important information I should know about Trulicity? How should I use Trulicity?
Trulicity may cause serious side effects including possible thyroid tumors, • Read the Instructions for Use that comes with Trulicity.
including cancer. Tell your healthcare provider if you get a lump or swelling
• Use Trulicity exactly as your healthcare provider tells you to.
in your neck, hoarseness, trouble swallowing, or shortness of breath. These
may be symptoms of thyroid cancer. In studies with rats or mice, Trulicity and • Your healthcare provider should show you how to use Trulicity before you
medicines that work like Trulicity caused thyroid tumors, including thyroid use it for the first time.
cancer. It is not known if TRULICITY will cause thyroid tumors or a type of
• Trulicity is injected under the skin (subcutaneously) of your stomach
thyroid cancer called medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) in people.
(abdomen), thigh, or upper arm. Do not inject Trulicity into a muscle
Who should not use Trulicity? (intramuscularly) or vein (intravenously).
Do not use Trulicity if: • Use Trulicity 1 time each week on the same day each week at any
• you or any of your family have ever had a type of thyroid cancer called time of the day.
medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) or if you have an endocrine system • You may change the day of the week as long as your last dose was given
condition called Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia syndrome type 2 (MEN 2). 3 or more days before.
• you are allergic to dulaglutide or any of the ingredients in Trulicity. • If you miss a dose of Trulicity, take the missed dose as soon as possible,
What are the possible side effects of Trulicity? if there are at least 3 days (72 hours) until your next scheduled dose. If
there are less than 3 days remaining, skip the missed dose and take your
Trulicity may cause serious side effects, including: next dose on the regularly scheduled day. Do not take 2 doses of Trulicity
• Possible thyroid tumors, including cancer. See “What is the most within 3 days of each other.
important information I should know about Trulicity?” • Trulicity may be taken with or without food.
• inflammation of the pancreas (pancreatitis). Stop using Trulicity and • Do not mix Trulicity and insulin together in the same injection.
call your healthcare provider right away if you have severe pain in your
stomach area (abdomen) that will not go away, with or without vomiting. • You may give an injection of Trulicity and insulin in the same body area
You may feel the pain from your abdomen to your back. (such as your stomach), but not right next to each other.
• low blood sugar (hypoglycemia). Your risk for getting low blood sugar • Change (rotate) your injection site with each weekly injection. Do not use
may be higher if you use Trulicity with another medicine that can cause the same site for each injection.
low blood sugar such as sulfonylurea or insulin. Do not share your Trulicity pen, syringe, or needles with another person.
Signs and symptoms of low blood sugar may include: dizziness or light- You may give another person an infection or get an infection from them.
headedness; blurred vision; anxiety, irritability, or mood changes; sweating; Your dose of Trulicity and other diabetes medicines may need to change
slurred speech; hunger; confusion or drowsiness; shakiness; weakness; because of:
headache; fast heartbeat; feeling jittery.
• change in level of physical activity or exercise, weight gain or loss,
• serious allergic reactions. Stop using Trulicity and get medical help right increased stress, illness, change in diet, or because of other medicines
away, if you have any symptoms of a serious allergic reaction including you take.
itching, rash, or difficulty breathing.
For more information go to www.Trulicity.com or call 1-800-LillyRx
• kidney problems (kidney failure). In people who have kidney problems, (1-800-545-5979).
diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting may cause a loss of fluids (dehydration)
which may cause kidney problems to get worse. Trulicity™ is a trademark owned or licensed by Eli Lilly and Company, its
subsidiaries or affiliates. Trulicity is available by prescription only.
• severe stomach problems. Other medicines like Trulicity may cause
severe stomach problems. It is not known if Trulicity causes or worsens
stomach problems.
The most common side effects of Trulicity may include nausea, diarrhea,
vomiting, decreased appetite, indigestion.
Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN 46285, USA
Talk to your healthcare provider about any side effect that bothers you or does
not go away. These are not all the side effects of Trulicity. US License Number 1891
Call your doctor for medical advice about side effects. You may report side Copyright © 2014, 2015, Eli Lilly and Company. All rights reserved.
effects to FDA at 1-800-FDA-1088. DG CON BS 01MAY2015
Trulicity (dulaglutide) DG CON BS 01MAY2015 Trulicity (dulaglutide) DG CON BS 01MAY2015
From generations to come:
thank you.
As National Geographic’s second
president, Alexander Graham Bell
celebrated curiosity and innovation,
creating a legacy of exploration for
generations to come. If you are one of
the many supporters who have joined
the Alexander Graham Bell Legacy
Society, you deserve a world of thanks.
Alexander Graham Bell with his grandson Melville. Beinn Bhreagh, Nova Scotia. Copyright © 2014 National Geographic Society
TINY HOUSE
FOOTPRINT
Since 1973
the average
U.S. home has
ballooned by
60 percent to
2,657 square
feet. A warmer
world may favor
a reverse trend.
Jay Shafer (at
left), the California
pioneer of living
in tiny houses,
built a lifestyle in
89 square feet
(layout below)—
and helped others
build pint-size
homes. Develop-
ers in New York
City and San
Francisco have
created the urban
equivalent: micro-
apartments.
8 feet
EFFICIENT LIVING
Shrinking your space doesn’t mean shrinking your life.
Kitchen Ladder
Downsizing, experts say, can bring both psychological and
financial benefits. Start by getting rid of clutter. End with lower
utility bills, less space to clean, and more time outdoors. 12
Loft feet
A future Micro- Efficiency Living bed
home’s living brings room Desk
best spaces reduced
attribute may be tend to work living costs. But
its smartness, best in urban unusual home
which helps appli- environments, designs can make
ances conserve with their existing securing land and Porch
water and energy. utility hookups. permits hard. 89 square
feet Storage
Composting can divert Leaving your car at home two An American household can
from landfills up to 650 days a week can reduce your save 1,600 pounds of CO2
pounds of a U.S. house- greenhouse gas emissions an emissions a year by washing
hold’s annual food waste. average of two tons a year. laundry in cold water.
greatenergychallenge.com
BRIGHT ENERGY IDEAS
REAL-WORLD IMPACT
GREAT ENERGY CHALLENGE GRANTEES
ARE LEADING THE WAY
SUNFARMER BOLSTERS
SOLAR ENERGY DELIVERY
While solar projects have long been
implemented as a viable energy solution
in areas that are off the grid, maintaining
solar installations to continuously provide
electricity over time is still a challenge.
SunFarmer is a social enterprise driving
investment in rural solar projects. They
provide affordable and reliable solar
energy in developing countries and imple- Watch the stories of these energy innovators and
ment monitoring and maintenance systems other visionaries whose bright ideas have been
to ensure reliable access to electricity to powered by grants through The Great Energy
the people who need it most. Ò Challenge. Follow @NatGeoEnergy on Twitter
and visit greatenergychallenge.com.
A Message
From Shell
The world’s population is growing
and living standards are improving.
To ensure that everyone can con-
tinue to progress and prosper, we
will need more and cleaner energy
than ever before. Put simply, our
evolving world needs a multitude of
bright energy ideas. Collectively,
we have the will and ingenuity to A FOOTBALL PITCH’S FLOODLIGHTS POWERED BY PLAYERS
develop these ideas, but we need In Morro da Mineira, a favela in Rio de Janeiro, Shell converted
to work together to bring them to a rundown sports ground into the world’s first human-powered
football pitch. Using kinetic tiles under the pitch and solar
fruition and put them into action.
panels on the roof to power the floodlights, the pitch and
Experience the bright energy ideas the area around it became a safe haven for kids in the local
that are shaping our future at community. The pitch is a real-world illustration proving the
#makethefuture. power of bright energy ideas.
TOURISM
The future of
tourism might
look like Iceland.
The country
has natural
advantages such
as pristine water,
stunning scenery,
and abundant
geothermal ener-
gy. It also boasts
an earth-friendly
ethos—green
buildings, hydro-
gen buses. As the
number of foreign
visitors has
doubled since
2010, other na-
tions have taken
notice. India and
Lebanon attract
tourists with pro-
tected mountain
ecosystems. Ca-
TRANSPORTATION ribbean nations
If you want to use the cleanest mode of transportation, nothing beats walking or biking, which have moved to
create zero greenhouse gases beyond those produced making the bike and the food you eat. preserve reefs.
From there, it’s far more complicated. According to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, transit The UN Environ-
buses use more energy per passenger-mile than cars. For long distances, you’re better off flying— ment Programme
carpooling in the sky—or, for the ultraprudent, taking a train. Calculations will change as the notes that money
world’s fleet shifts from fossil fuels to electric. “By 2035 there will be very few conventional gasoline is one motiva-
or diesel cars being sold,” says Dan Sperling, director of UC Davis’s Institute of Transportation tor. A cleaner
Studies. Global trends toward mass urbanization make infrastructure planning easier. They also environment is
raise the likelihood that more people will take trains, bikes, or their own feet to get from A to B. another.
If meat were dropped from diets Idle electronics, plugged in but unused, consume the
globally, the reduction in CO2 equivalent output of 12 power plants. Using a power
emissions would almost equal strip that you can turn on and off can save the average
total U.S. annual emissions. American home up to $200 each year.
PHOTO: SAM POLCER. SOURCE: CENTER FOR SOLAR ENERGY AND HYDROGEN RESEARCH BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG
Businesses
In 2009, when MIT’s Sloan Management Review first surveyed businesses about sustainability
efforts, it found most “doing only what is necessary to meet regulatory requirements.” Five
years later the survey told a different story: Nearly two-thirds of companies said sustainability
was at the top of their agendas, which fewer than half had said earlier. What changed? The
CEOs’ sense of green initiatives’ worth, say Patricia and Jack Phillips, authors of The Green
Scorecard. “Today, most (if not all) businesses recognize that climate change is a problem,” they
write. “Smart companies use their environmental strategy to…build competitive advantage.”
REPOWERING
To move toward cleaner energy without
sending power plants into premature
retirement, companies are making over
plants, switching fuels, and boosting ef-
ficiency. Some utilities are “repowering”
coal plants like this one in Newburgh,
New York (left), to run on cleaner natural
gas or biomass; nearly 50 units are
slated for retrofits in the U.S. alone.
“Repowering” is an industry term,
but the concept also applies to trucks,
buildings, and land. For businesses
loath to see valuable assets become
obsolete, it’s a no-brainer. California
garbage hauler Ratto Group is replacing
the guts of 17 diesel trucks with electric
systems that will meet state air regula-
tions. “This gives me the ability to keep
the vehicles that I currently have,” says
COO Lou Ratto, “and keep these things
going for as long as I want to.”
Per acre, microalgae can Airbus hopes to create silent, Office buildings gobble energy even
produce up to 60 times as CO2-free, hybrid-electric pas- when no one’s at work. By 2020
much oil for fuel as plants senger aircraft by 2050. It’s now spending may triple on systems that
that are grown in soil. experimenting with prototypes. sense empty rooms and turn off lights.
38% 28 10 10 6 4 4
Renewable energy Energy efficiency Transport Water Land use
Waste and pollution Climate adaptation
GREEN BONDS
A warming world isn’t likely to change
money—but it could affect how peo-
ple invest it. Banks are now offering
“green bonds,” which let investors
link their money to environmental
causes. Green bonds are similar to
regular bonds, but they fund projects
that mitigate climate change or help
people adapt to it. “We’re telling the
investor exactly how the money will be
used,” says World Bank sustainability
adviser Laura Tlaiye. Clean-energy
proposals qualify, as do innovations in
waste management and agricultural
efficiency. In Rio de Janeiro $600
million went to improve a traffic-
alleviating suburban rail network
(right). Belarus borrowed $90 million
to replace natural gas heating with
biomass. U.S. banks have created
their own green bonds; earlier this year
one leading bank raised half a billion
dollars to finance cities’ plans for
new solar capacity, wind turbines,
and energy-efficient street lamps.
BATTERIES
Extreme weather is a leading cause of power outages. When hospitals,
transport systems, and other vital services lose juice, safety is threatened.
One way to increase backup power as well as relieve our strained grid: batter-
ies. Energy-policy analyst Todd Olinsky-Paul says two new types could help
make the grid more resilient. Flow batteries, hitting the market now, provide
2007 affordable long-term storage. Lithium-ion batteries, used in electric vehicles,
807 are good for shorter bursts of power. And then there are liquid-metal batteries.
million Designed by MIT electrochemist Donald Sadoway, these efficient innovations
are now backed by a renewable-energy investor named Bill Gates.
A data center can use Hotels worldwide have joined an Levi Strauss & Co. has saved
as much as 200 times effort to standardize reporting some 260 million gallons of
more electricity than a of their carbon emissions and water since 2011 by cutting
typical office. efforts to reduce them. use during garment production.
ART: ROMUALDO FAURA. PHOTO: ROGÉRIO REIS, TYBA. SOURCES: CLIMATE BONDS INITIATIVE; WORLD BANK
BECAUSE SOMEDAY
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800.FIDELITY
SMART STREETS
Chicago has built what city officials call the “greenest
“Mayors don’t have to wait for
street in America”—a two-mile stretch in the industrial national governments or a new
neighborhood of Pilsen. Bike and parking lanes are paved
with smog-eating concrete; sidewalks are made from global climate agreement to act.
recycled materials. Wind and sun power streetlights.
Bioswales, thick with drought-tolerant plants, divert
They can take action today—
storm water from overburdened sewers. The spruced-up and increasingly, they are.”
streetscape uses 42 percent less energy than it used to—
and cost 21 percent less than a traditional road project. Michael Bloomberg
former mayor of New York City, May 27, 2014
2 3
In 2014 U.S. mayors rated energy- The Norwegian city of Most Hong Kong residents live
efficient lighting as the most prom- Drammen is heated near mass transit: 43 percent
ising technology for reducing urban almost entirely by water within 1,640 feet, 75 percent
energy use and carbon emissions. from the local fjord. within two-thirds of a mile.
WASTE MANAGEMENT
For cities, garbage is a perpetual
problem. Trash stinks, it’s hard
to get rid of, and when it de-
composes, it releases methane,
a greenhouse gas. Yet waste
can be a powerful resource. In
Oslo, Norway, trash is burned
to generate heat (left). In Durban,
South Africa, landfills capture
methane from the city’s refuse
and convert it into energy that
supplies up to 6,000 houses
with electricity every day. The
process attacks climate change
with a one-two punch: Methane
doesn’t escape into the atmo-
sphere, and Durban reduces
its reliance on greenhouse-gas-
emitting coal.
INFRASTRUCTURE
An alarming amount of natural gas
never reaches the homes it was 107
intended to heat because it seeps
95
out of old pipes. Utilities repair life- 1
endangering leaks but often miss
others, which can still cause trouble:
93
The main component of natural gas Leak rate
is methane, a potent greenhouse Cubic feet per day
gas. Fixing the pipes fixes the prob- 25-300
lem. After Indianapolis upgraded its 300-2,000
pipes to noncorrosive materials, a More than 2,000
methane-mapping project discov- 90
ered only five leaks in the city. City of Boston
Massachusetts
Bay
Methane
3A
Carbon
dioxide
93
0 mi 5
Warming potential
Methane doesn’t stay in 0 km 5
the atmosphere as long
as CO2, but its impact on
climate change over 100
years is 28 times greater.
2,320
leaks detected
Greater Boston
Most of the area’s pipes are more than 50 years old; nearly half
of them are made of corrodible materials like cast iron.
An artificial ski slope in Copenhagen, Denmark, Used cooking oil was contaminating the water
opening in 2017, will sit atop a power station in Volta Redonda, Brazil, so the city began
that transforms waste into electricity for 50,000 recycling it by converting it into biodiesel, which
households and heat for 120,000. also reduces carbon emissions.
PHOTO: BRIAN CLIFF OLGUIN. MAP: EVAN APPLEGATE. SOURCE: ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND
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Nations
In 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned of “severe, pervasive and
irreversible impacts” unless greenhouse gases are curtailed. More than 830 scientists, bringing
the concerns of the 80-plus nations they call home, contributed to the report. Within their
borders and on the world stage, nations wield influence that individuals, cities, and businesses
cannot. Their policies can spur green innovation or stunt it, toughen pollution standards or
weaken them. The fate of any accord on climate change lies in their hands.
OFFSHORE ENERGY
Solar is the “biggest tool
in the toolbox” for cutting
carbon, says Greg Wilson
of the U.S. National
Renewable Energy Lab-
oratory. The International
Energy Agency says wind
power will also play a big
role and could increase
up to tenfold by 2050. At
their peak potential, solar
and wind could help us
avoid some 12 gigatons
of yearly carbon emis-
sions, almost a third of
the world’s current total.
New wind and solar tech-
nologies abound. Places
short on land are using
local waters for wind
turbines and solar panels
(like these on a pond in
Japan’s Kato City).
Some 35,000 pounds of copper, 772 In 2010, 31 percent—or All of the electricity used
pounds of silver, 75 pounds of gold, and 133 billion pounds—of by the CTrain in Calgary,
33 pounds of palladium can be recovered the food available in the Canada, is purchased
from a million recycled cell phones. U.S. wasn’t eaten. from renewable sources.
† Based on the change in gold’s price from September 6, 2001 ($272/oz.) to September 6, 2011 ($1,923.70/oz.) * Special offer is strictly limited to
only one lifetime purchase of ten coins (regardless of price paid) per household, plus shipping and insurance ($15-$35). Prices may be more or less
based on current market conditions. The markets for coins are unregulated. Prices can rise or fall and carry some risks. The company is not affiliated
with the U.S. Government and the U.S. Mint. Past performance of the coin or the market cannot predict future performance. Price not valid for precious
metals dealers. All calls recorded for quality assurance. Offer void where prohibited. Coin dates our choice. 1/10-ounce coins enlarged to show detail.
© 2015 U.S. Money Reserve
VAULT CODE:
NG26119
World
Geoengineering is a catchall term for deliberate large-scale interventions in the planetary
environment that are designed to counteract climate change. As global carbon emissions
rise, advocates say more research into geoengineering is needed. But hacking the planet
carries unknown risks, and the politics of planetwide climate intervention would likely be
complex. For starters, governments might need to agree on whether to even try cooling an
overheated Earth, an extreme measure that could harm some countries while helping others.
Pope Francis has urged people to reject The cost of keeping the Earth’s
the “throwaway culture” by recycling, temperature from rising more than
moderating consumption, and limiting
their use of nonrenewable resources.
$ 2°C (3.6°F) is estimated to be a
trillion dollars a year through 2050.
The “shade” would be 16
trillion small disks, each
equipped with tiny adjustable
solar sails to prevent it from
drifting away.
China, the U.S., and the Worldwide, fossil fuel subsidies may More contraception
European Union together be as much as two trillion dollars, or could lower the birthrate
emit the most CO2— about 2 percent of global GDP. Coal and reduce emissions
55 percent of the total. is subsidized the most. 20 percent by 2100.
Whatisthepurposeofthisnotice?Asettlementhasbeen
^ĂĨĞƚLJdƌĂŝŶŝŶŐ͕ĂŶĚĂĂƐŚWĂLJŵĞŶƚĨŽƌZĞƚƵƌŶĞĚWŝƐƚŽůƐ proposedinaclassactionpendingintheSuperiorCourtofthe
The United States District Court StateofCaliforniafortheCountyofSantaClara(“Court”)titled
for the Southern District of Florida authorized this notice. Romero,etal.v.LoackerUSA,Inc.,CaseNo.114cv274434.If
Para una notificación en Español, visitar the Court gives final approval to the settlement, Loacker will
www.TaurusCarterSettlement.com offer refunds to each class member (defined below) who
What’s This About? properlyandtimelycompletesaClaimForm.Thepurposeof
There is a proposed class action settlement about alleged safety thisnoticeistoinformyouoftheactionandthesettlementso
defects in certain Taurus-branded pistols. This lawsuit alleges thatyoumaydecidewhatstepstotakeinrelationtoit.
that Class Pistols (defined below) may unintentionally fire with Whatisthelawsuitabout?ThelawsuitclaimsthatLoacker
the safety in the “on” or “safe” position, and may unintentionally violatedcertainlawsbylabelingandadvertisingitsQuadratiniwafer
fire when dropped or bumped. The Taurus Companies1 productsas“AllNatural”and“natural”whentheycontainallegedly
(“Taurus”) stand by the Class Pistols and deny all allegations of
wrongdoing and liability. synthetic, artificial, and highly processed ingredients, including
chemicalpreservativesandartificialflavors.Loackerdeniesthatit
Who’s Included? falselyadvertisedormarketeditsproducts,deniesallclaimsmade
You may be a Settlement Class Member and have rights under
this settlement if you are a resident or entity of the United States, againstit,deniesthatitviolatedanylaws,anddeniesthatitslabeling
Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, or Guam and own one or more isfalseormisleading.Nocourthasdecidedwhichsideisright.
of the following Taurus-branded firearms on July 30, 2015: Bothsidesagreedtosettlethecase.
Class Pistols is known. If you return your Class Pistol for a Whatreliefdoesthesettlementprovide?Inexchangefor
payment, it will not be returned to you even if the payment is a release of claims from each class member who doesn’t opt
less than you want. out,Loackerwillcreateacashsettlementfundintheamountof
Also, Taurus will provide a free, transferrable lifetime enhanced $1,200,000. This amount is inclusive of all payments to class
warranty that will allow owners to submit warranty claims at memberswhosubmittimelyandvalidclaims,aswellasCourt
any time. Taurus will pay shipping and inspection costs, and will
approved attorneys’ fees and costs, service payments to the
repair or replace the pistol as necessary. Taurus will also provide
safety training to all Settlement Class Members. Taurus will pay class representatives, and settlement administration costs.
for notice and administration, a class representative award of up Classmemberswithproofofpurchasemayreceivearefundof
to $15,000, and Class Counsels’ attorneys’ fees and costs up to $3.29 for each qualifying product they purchased. Class
$9 million, payable over 4 years. members without proof of purchase may receive a refund of
How Do You Ask For A Payment? $3.29 for each qualifying product they purchased up to a
You must submit a claim form and return your Class Pistol to maximumoffive(5)products.Theamountofmoneythatclass
receive a payment. Shipping is prepaid by Taurus. You can only members receive may ultimately be increased or decreased
submit a claim form after the settlement is finally approved dependingonthe numberofotherclaimsthataresubmitted
and any appeals are concluded. This date is not yet known. andthevalueofthoseclaims.
You may register now through the website to get information
about when you can submit a claim form. Visit the website to As part of the settlement Loacker has also agreed to
determine when you can submit a claim. If the Court approves removethewords“AllNatural”or“natural”fromitslabelsand
the settlement and there are no appeals, the claims period will statements made on its website(s) representing that its
run from approximately February 24, 2016 until June 23, 2016. Quadratiniproductsare“AllNatural”or“natural.”
December 14, 2015 and you may have to give a deposition. Whataremyotheroptions?Ifyoudon’twanttobelegally
Objections and opt-outs will be public record, even if they contain bound by the settlement, you must exclude yourself by
the identity of Settlement Class Members. Detailed information
is on the website. If you do nothing, you will still receive the November30,2015,oryouwon’tbeabletosueLoackerover
lifetime enhanced warranty and safety training but will not the legal claims in the lawsuit. If you exclude yourself, you
receive a payment, and you will still be bound by the settlement. cannotreceivecompensationfromthissettlement.Ifyoustay
Before money is paid, the Court will hold a Final Approval inthesettlement,youmayobjecttoitbyNovember30,2015.
hearing on January 20, 2016, to consider whether to approve Adetailednoticeavailableatthewebsitebelowexplainshowto
the settlement. You may attend the hearing, but you don’t have exclude yourself or object. The Court will hold a hearing on
to. The Court will also consider the request for attorneys’ fees January8,2016at9:00a.m.inDept.1.,toconsiderwhetherto
and costs and an incentive award. The motion for attorneys’ fees, approvethesettlement,arequestbythelawyersrepresenting
costs and awards will be on the website. classmembersforattorneys’feesandcosts,andforthenamed
This is only a Summary. For detailed information, call toll-free plaintiffs’requestforincentiveawardsfortheirservices.You
1-(844) 528-0180, or visit www.TaurusCarterSettlement.com, mayasktoappearatthehearing,butyoudon’thaveto.
or write to Carter v. Forjas Taurus, c/o Heffler Claims Group,
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World
Talk versus action
In 2011 world governments set a goal of limiting global
NATIONAL PLEDGES warming to 2°C (3.6°F). Scientists see three possible out-
When countries adopted the 1997 international treaty known comes, depending on what action countries actually take.
as the Kyoto Protocol, they made binding pledges to reduce
their greenhouse gas emissions over two decades. To mon-
itor progress on those pledges and other climate-change If countries do nothing
efforts, a coalition of research organizations created a
database called the Climate Action Tracker (CAT). This map
+8.1°F
reflects CAT’s latest assessment of the major greenhouse- Under current policy
gas-emitting countries and a sample of minor ones, which
together account for 80 percent of global emissions.
+7°F
It’s not always political leaders who set goals. A June 2015 3.6°F With pledges
lawsuit in the Netherlands—brought by a sustainable-living
foundation and Dutch citizens—argued that the country’s 17
limit
+5.6°F
percent emissions goal wasn’t ambitious enough. A court
ruled that it should raise that figure to 25 percent, to bolster Average projected
the European Union’s broader emissions reduction plan. warming by 2100 above
Belgium and Norway are now facing similar lawsuits. preindustrial levels
NORWAY
RUSSIA
CANADA
UKRAINE
E.U. KAZAKHSTAN
SWITZERLAND JAPAN
UNITED STATES The U.S. climate-
action plan is CHINA
considered SOUTH KOREA
relatively unam- MOROCCO
bitious, less than INDIA
MEXICO
its fair share of
what’s needed.
COSTA RICA ETHIOPIA
BHUTAN
INDONESIA
BRAZIL Bhutan’s
PERU commitment to
maintaining forest
cover makes it
CHILE one of the few AUSTRALIA
SOUTH negative emitters.
Chile’s pledge
AFRICA
is deemed inade-
quate to counter
NEW
its current level
ZEALAND
of emissions.
NASA satellite data showed a global forest Traditional cooking stoves use fuels such as wood, dung,
loss of 888,000 square miles from 2000 to and crop waste. Emissions vary depending on the fuel and
2012—almost three times as much as the the efficiency of the stove, but replacing these stoves with
forest that regrew. eco-friendly models could cut fuel and limit emissions.
SOURCE: DATA FOR CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER COMPILED BY CLIMATE ANALYTICS, ECOFYS,
NEWCLIMATE INSTITUTE, AND POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH
HOW T O F I X I T
THE WILL
TO CHANGE
Germany’s energy revolution aims to replace nukes
and fossil fuels. Could it be a model for the world?
32
Wind turbines surround
a coal-fired power plant
near Garzweiler in western
Germany. Renewables now
generate 27 percent of the
country’s electricity, up
from 9 percent a decade
ago. Eventually they’ll
crowd out coal—although
Germany is switching off
its nuclear plants first.
Workers have been taking
apart this Soviet-era nuclear
power plant, near Greifswald
in eastern Germany, since
1995, cleaning radioactive
surfaces with steel grit (left)
so the metal can be recycled.
Germany plans to shut all
its reactors by 2022.
A nuclear reactor at
Kalkar was finished just
before the 1986 explosion
at Chernobyl, Ukraine—
and never used. It’s now
an amusement park with
a ride in what would have
been the cooling tower. Fear
of nuclear power spurred
Germany’s transition.
Nearly 300 feet above the
North Sea and more than
30 miles from the German
mainland, an engineer
works on a wind turbine
operated by Dong Energy.
Nineteen wind farms have
been built or are under
construction in German
waters of the North and
Baltic Seas.
By Robert Kunzig
H
Photographs by Luca Locatelli
United States gets today. The change accelerat- The fate of those promises hangs in the bal-
ed after the 2011 meltdown at Japan’s Fukushi- ance right now. The German revolution has
ma nuclear power plant, which led Chancellor come from the grass roots: Individual citizens
Angela Merkel to declare that Germany would and energy genossenschaften—local citizens
shut all 17 of its own reactors by 2022. Nine have associations—have made half the investment in
been switched off so far, and renewables have renewables. But conventional utilities, which
more than picked up the slack. didn’t see the revolution coming, are pressuring
What makes Germany so important to the Merkel’s government to slow things down. The
world, however, is the question of whether it can country still gets far more electricity from coal
lead the retreat from fossil fuels. By later this than from renewables. And the energiewende
century, scientists say, planet-warming carbon has an even longer way to go in the transporta-
emissions must fall to virtually zero. Germany, tion and heating sectors, which together emit
the world’s fourth largest economy, has prom- more carbon dioxide (CO2) than power plants.
ised some of the most aggressive emission cuts— German politicians sometimes compare
by 2020, a 40 percent cut from 1990 levels, and the energiewende to the Apollo moon landing.
by 2050, at least 80 percent. But that feat took less than a decade, and most
t h e w i l l t o c h a n g e 43
Germany’s Audacious Goal
Germany has Europe’s second highest consumer electricity prices, yet public support for its
energiewende—an aggressive transition to renewable energy—is at an impressive 92 percent.
The support is rooted in an eco-friendly culture, a collective desire to abandon nuclear energy,
and laws that allow citizens to profit from selling their energy to the grid. Roughly 27 percent
of Germany’s electricity is from renewables; the goal is at least 80 percent by 2050.
No r t h S e a Greifswald** NO NUKES
Brunsbüttel After the disaster in Fukushi-
ma, Japan, in 2011, Germany
El Hamburg vowed to quickly abandon
be
nuclear energy. Of 17 operable
reactors, nine have since been
Eberswalde-Finow shuttered. The rest are set to
close by 2022.
GERMANY Berlin
Wolmirstedt
NETHERLANDS Feldheim
Welzow
Kalkar
POLAND
Leipzig
Garzweiler
Installed capacity
BELGIUM El by postal code area,†
megawatts per
Rh
be
e
in
square mile
Frankfurt Hammelburg 1.5+
Wind- Solar-
dominant 1.5 dominant
Grafenrheinfeld region region
LUX. CZECH REPUBLIC 1.0
(CZECHIA)
0.5
Planned
power line
k
Operational
ne
t
c
Gundremmingen
a
Closed
r e
B l
Freiburg 0 mi 50
Wildpoldsried AUSTRIA 0 km 50
R hi n e
SWITZERLAND
Explosion of renewables 27% Decline in emissions
The government has boosted Solar 21% Germany’s renewable-energy surge has
renewables by paying producers contributed to a 27 percent reduction in
for energy and guaranteeing prices. its greenhouse gas emissions.
Wind Germany
12% U.K.
Renewables as a share France
of electricity generation Total emissions
Italy
Other (CO2 equivalent),
Poland in billions of tons
Hydro Spain 2012* 1990
Netherlands
1990 2014 2014 2014
Germany U.S. China 0 0.5 1.0 1.5
OFFSHORE PROMISE
2050 Germany has invested
heavily in energy generated
by offshore wind and
DanTysk DENMARK SWEDEN
expects one-third of its
offshore
wind farm future wind energy to come
from offshore farms.
Ba l t i c
No r t h Sea
Sea JASMUND
NATIONAL PARK
Garzweiler
El
Rhi
be
ne
BELGIUM
Frankfurt Hammelburg
Grafenrheinfeld
LUX. CZECH REPUBLIC
(CZECHIA)
A SIA
k
n e
FRANCE
t
a c
Rhi
Gundremmingen GERMANY
BAVA R I A
s
EUROPE
e
B l
Wyhl Munich
F o r
Freiburg A FR IC A
Wildpoldsried AUSTRIA
R hi n e
SWITZERLAND
*LATEST AVAILABLE DATA
**REACTOR CLOSED PRIOR TO 2011
†
OFFSHORE WIND FARM AREAS ALSO SHOWN
JASON TREAT, NGM STAFF; EVAN APPLEGATE. SOURCES: FRAUNHOFER IWES, KASSEL;
U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION; GERMAN FEDERAL MINISTRY FOR THE ENVIRONMENT; EUROSTAT
Renewables are booming,
but Germany’s use of lig-
nite, the dirtiest coal, hasn’t
declined. At Vattenfall’s
Welzow-Süd mine, some of
the world’s largest machines
claw 22 million tons a year
from a 45-foot-thick seam.
How long will that go on?
“Very long, I hope,” said Jan
Domann, a young engineer.
“We have enough lignite.”
A worker prepares a wind
turbine blade for painting
at a Siemens factory in
Denmark. At 246 feet long,
the hollow fiberglass and
resin blade is nearly as
long as the wingspan of the
largest jetliner. A single
turbine in the North Sea
can supply electricity for
6,000 German homes.
“It’s
a project for a who have very little oil and gas of their own,
think about energy. The threat of waldsterben,
generation, and it’s hard. or forest death, made them think harder.
It’s making electricity Government and utilities were pushing nu-
more expensive. Still, if clear power—but many Germans were pushing
back. This was new for them. In the decades
you ask in a poll, Do you after World War II, with a ruined country to
want the energiewende?, rebuild, there had been little appetite for ques-
then 90 percent say yes.” tioning authority or the past. But by the 1970s,
the rebuilding was complete, and a new genera-
Gerd Rosenkranz, political analyst
tion was beginning to question the one that had
started and lost the war. “There’s a certain re-
Americans just watched it on TV. The ener- belliousness that’s a result of the Second World
giewende will take much longer and will involve War,” a 50-something man named Josef Pesch
every single German—more than 1.5 million of told me. “You don’t blindly accept authority.”
them, nearly 2 percent of the population, are Pesch was sitting in a mountaintop restau-
selling electricity to the grid right now. “It’s a rant in the Black Forest outside Freiburg. In a
project for a generation; it’s going to take till snowy clearing just uphill stood two 320-foot-
2040 or 2050, and it’s hard,” said Gerd Rosen- tall wind turbines funded by 521 citizen inves-
kranz, a former journalist at Der Spiegel who’s tors recruited by Pesch—but we weren’t talking
now an analyst at Agora Energiewende, a Ber- about the turbines yet. With an engineer named
lin think tank. “It’s making electricity more Dieter Seifried, we were talking about the nucle-
expensive for individual consumers. And still, ar reactor that never got built, near the village of
if you ask people in a poll, Do you want the en- Wyhl, 20 miles away on the Rhine River.
ergiewende? then 90 percent say yes.” The state government had insisted that the
Why? I wondered as I traveled in Germany last reactor had to be built or the lights would go
spring. Why is the energy future happening here, out in Freiburg. But beginning in 1975, local
in a country that was a bombed-out wasteland farmers and students occupied the site. In pro-
70 years ago? And could it happen everywhere? tests that lasted nearly a decade, they forced
the government to abandon its plans. It was the
The Germans have an origin myth: It says first time a nuclear reactor had been stopped
they came from the dark and impenetrable in Germany.
heart of the forest. It dates back to the Roman The lights didn’t go out, and Freiburg became
historian Tacitus, who wrote about the Teu- a solar city. Its branch of the Fraunhofer Insti-
tonic hordes who massacred Roman legions, tute is a world leader in solar research. Its So-
and it was embellished by German Romantics lar Settlement, designed by local architect Rolf
in the 19th century. Through the upheavals of Disch, who’d been active in the Wyhl protests,
the 20th century, according to ethnographer includes 50 houses that all produce more ener-
Albrecht Lehmann, the myth remained a stable gy than they consume. “Wyhl was the starting
source of German identity. The forest became point,” Seifried said. In 1980 an institute that
the place where Germans go to restore their Seifried co-founded published a study called
souls—a habit that predisposed them to care Energiewende—giving a name to a movement
about the environment. that hadn’t even been born yet.
So in the late 1970s, when fossil fuel emis- It wasn’t born of a single fight. But opposition
sions were blamed for killing German forests to nuclear power, at a time when few people
with acid rain, the outrage was nationwide. The were talking about climate change, was clear-
oil embargo of 1973 had already made Germans, ly a decisive factor. I had come to Germany
t h e w i l l t o c h a n g e 51
In a Leipzig factory partially
powered by wind, BMW builds
i8 and i3 electric cars with
light carbon-fiber bodies—
the first in mass production.
German carmakers offer some
electric models, but for lack
of government incentives,
Germans aren’t buying many.
“Compared to California,
we’re light-years behind,”
said BMW’s Wieland Brúch.
A sea of photovoltaic
panels surrounds the
runway at the Eberswalde-
Finow Airport, 30 miles
north of Berlin. Germany
is at the same latitude
as Labrador, Canada, but
has installed more solar
capacity than any other
country. Most panels are
on rooftops.
The German law drove “My basic principle,” Fell said, “was the pay-
ment had to be so high that investors could make
down the cost of solar a profit. We live in a market economy, after all.
and wind, making them It’s logical.”
competitive in many
Fell was about the only German I met who
regions with fossil fuels. claimed not to have been surprised at the boom
It helped spark his logic unleashed. “That it would be possi-
a worldwide boom. ble to this extent—I didn’t believe that then,”
said dairy farmer Wendelin Einsiedler. Outside
his sunroom, which overlooks the Alps, nine
wind turbines turned lazily on the ridge behind
base. Young Fell demonstrated at Grafenrhein- the cow pen. The smell of manure drifted in.
feld and went to court to refuse military service. Einsiedler had started his personal ener-
Years later, after his father had retired, Fell was giewende in the 1990s with a single turbine
elected to the Hammelburg city council. and a methane-producing manure fermenter.
It was 1990, the year Germany was officially He and his brother Ignaz, also a dairy farmer,
reunified—and while the country was preoccu- burned the methane in a 28-kilowatt cogen-
pied with that monumental task, a bill boost- erator, generating heat and electricity for their
ing the energiewende made its way through the farms. “There was no question of making mon-
Bundestag without much public notice. Just two ey,” Einsiedler said. “It was idealism.”
pages long, it enshrined a crucial principle: Pro- But after the renewable energy law took ef-
ducers of renewable electricity had the right to fect in 2000, the Einsiedlers expanded. Today
feed into the grid, and utilities had to pay them they have five fermenters, which process corn
a “feed-in tariff.” Wind turbines began to sprout silage as well as manure from eight dairy farms,
in the windy north. and they pipe the resulting biogas three miles to
But Fell, who was installing PV panels on his the village of Wildpoldsried. There it’s burned
roof in Hammelburg, realized that the new law in cogenerators to heat all the public buildings,
would never lead to a countrywide boom: It paid an industrial park, and 130 homes. “It’s a won-
people to produce energy, but not enough. In derful principle, and it saves an unbelievable
1993 he got the city council to pass an ordinance amount of CO2,” said Mayor Arno Zengerle.
obliging the municipal utility to guarantee any The biogas, the solar panels that cover many
renewable energy producer a price that more roofs, and especially the wind turbines allow
than covered costs. Fell promptly organized an Wildpoldsried to produce nearly five times as
association of local investors to build a 15-kilo- much electricity as it consumes. Einsiedler
watt solar power plant—tiny by today’s stan- manages the turbines, and he’s had little trou-
dards, but the association was one of the first of ble recruiting investors. Thirty people invested
its kind. Now there are hundreds in Germany. in the first one; 94 jumped on the next. “These
In 1998 Fell rode a Green wave and his suc- are their wind turbines,” Einsiedler said. Wind
cess in Hammelburg into the Bundestag. The turbines are a dramatic and sometimes contro-
Greens formed a governing coalition with the versial addition to the German landscape—“as-
SPD. Fell teamed up with Hermann Scheer, a paragification,” opponents call it—but when
prominent SPD advocate of solar energy, to people have a financial stake in the asparagus,
craft a law that in 2000 took the Hammelburg Einsiedler said, their attitude changes.
experiment nationwide and has since been im- It wasn’t hard to persuade farmers and
itated around the world. Its feed-in tariffs were homeowners to put solar panels on their roofs;
guaranteed for 20 years, and they paid well. the feed-in tariff, which paid them 50 cents a
t h e w i l l t o c h a n g e 57
Citizens have funded half
of Germany’s investment
in renewable energy after
a law made it profitable.
Outside the village of
Feldheim, visitors tour the
wind park. It sells electric-
ity to the national grid—but
also supplies a local grid
that makes Feldheim
self-sufficient.
In 1996 the Kalkar nuclear
reactor site, on the Rhine
near Holland, opened as
an amusement park: Wun-
derland Kalkar. By 2050
Germany aims to be a new
kind of wonderland—an
industrial country that uses
half as much energy as
before and gets at least 80
percent from renewables.
The euphoria hasn’t increasingly, into the hands of the utilities.
Merkel’s government has encouraged the shift,
lasted. Economic interests capping construction of solar and onshore wind
are clashing now. Some and changing the rules in ways that shut out cit-
Germans say it might izens associations. Last year the amount of new
solar fell to around 1.9 gigawatts, a quarter of the
take another catastrophe 2012 peak. Critics say the government is helping
like Fukushima to big utilities at the expense of the citizens’ move-
catalyze progress. ment that launched the energiewende.
At the end of April, Vattenfall formally inau-
gurated its first German North Sea wind park, an
80-turbine project called DanTysk that lies some
be replanted. In one recultivated area there’s 50 miles offshore. The ceremony in a Hamburg
a small experimental vineyard. On the same ballroom was a happy occasion for the city of
rebuilt hill stands a memorial to Wolkenberg, Munich too. Its municipal utility, Stadtwerke
a village consumed by the mine in the 1990s. München, owns 49 percent of the project. As a
Boulders mark the spots where the church and result Munich now produces enough renewable
other buildings once stood. electricity to supply its households, subway, and
It was a gorgeous spring day; from Wolken- tram lines. By 2025 it plans to meet all of its de-
berg, the only cloud we could see was the lazily mand with renewables.
billowing steam plume from the 1.6-gigawatt
power plant at Schwarze Pumpe, which burns In part because it has retained a lot of heavy
most of the lignite mined at Welzow-Süd. In a industry, Germany has some of the highest per
conference room, Olaf Adermann, asset manag- capita carbon emissions in western Europe.
er for Vattenfall’s lignite operations, explained (They’re a bit more than half of U.S. emissions.)
that Vattenfall and other utilities had never ex- Its goal for 2020 is to cut them by 40 percent
pected renewables to take off so fast. Even with from 1990 levels. As of last year, it had achieved
the looming shutdown of more nuclear reactors, 27 percent. The European carbon-trading sys-
Germany has too much generating capacity. tem, in which governments issue tradable emis-
“We have to face some kind of a market clean- sions permits to polluters, hasn’t been much
ing,” Adermann said. But lignite shouldn’t be help so far. There are too many permits in cir-
the one to go, he insisted: It’s the “reliable and culation, and they’re so cheap that industry has
flexible partner” when the sun isn’t shining or little incentive to cut emissions.
the wind isn’t blowing. Adermann, who’s from Though Germany isn’t on track to meet its own
the region and worked for its lignite mines be- goal for 2020, it’s ahead of the European Union’s
fore they belonged to Vattenfall, sees them con- schedule. It could have left things there—and
tinuing to 2050—and maybe beyond. many in Merkel’s CDU wanted her to do just
Vattenfall, however, plans to sell its lignite that. Instead, she and Economics Minister
business, if it can find a buyer, so it can focus Sigmar Gabriel, head of the SPD, reaffirmed
on renewables. It’s investing billions of euros their 40 percent commitment last fall.
in two new offshore wind parks in the North They haven’t proved they can meet it, howev-
Sea—because there’s more wind offshore than er. Last spring Gabriel proposed a special emis-
on and because a large corporation needs a large sions levy on old, inefficient coal plants; he soon
project to pay its overhead. “We can’t do on- had 15,000 miners and power plant workers,
shore in Germany,” Wiese said. “It’s too small.” encouraged by their employers, demonstrating
Vattenfall isn’t alone: The renewables boom outside his ministry. In July the government
has moved into the North and Baltic Seas and, backed down. Instead of taxing the utilities, it
Photographer and filmmaker How did you prepare days learning to cope
Luca Locatelli, who lives in Milan, for this assignment? with hazardous situa-
is passionate about the relationship The biggest challenge tions at sea—like when a
between humans and technology— was training to join helicopter is upside down
and the environmental consequenc- the offshore-wind-park underwater, how to break
es of those interactions. technicians. I spent three a window to escape.
REBECCA HALE, NGM STAFF
t h e w i l l t o c h a n g e 63
New solar technology
The Crescent Dunes Solar Plant
commissioned this year northwest
of Las Vegas uses more than 10,000
mirrors to concentrate sunlight and
heat liquid salt, which can then be used
day or night to generate electricity.
JAMEY STILLINGS
64
HOW TO FIX IT
A Blueprint for a
Carbon-Free America
By Craig Welch
Graphics by Jason Treat
I
n just a few decades the United States would be on par with simultaneously under-
could eliminate fossil fuels and rely 100 taking some of the nation’s most ambitious
percent on clean, renewable energy. endeavors: the Apollo program, the interstate
That’s the bold vision of Mark Jacobson, highway system, the nuclear bomb, and the
a Stanford engineering professor who has military’s World War II arsenal. This trans-
produced a state-by-state road map of how the formation would cost roughly $15 trillion, or
country could wean itself from coal, oil, natural $47,000 for each American, for building and
gas, and nuclear power. installing systems that produce and store re-
By 2050, Jacobson envisions the nation’s newable energy.
transportation network—cars, ships, airplanes— What would it take? Seventy-eight million
running on batteries or hydrogen produced from rooftop solar systems, nearly 49,000 commer-
electricity. He sees the breezes gusting across the cial solar plants, 156,000 offshore wind turbines,
Great Plains powering vast stretches of the coun- plus wave-energy and geothermal systems.
try’s middle while the blazing sun helps electrify Land-based wind farms would need 328,000
the Southwest. He pictures New England cap- turbines, each with blades longer than a football
turing its legendary offshore winds. “There’s no field. These farms would occupy as much land
state that can’t do this,” Jacobson says. as North Carolina. Of course, producing fossil
Today only 13 percent of U.S. electricity comes fuels gnaws through land too. In the past cen-
from renewables. Achieving Jacobson’s goal tury prospectors drilled nearly 2.5 million oil
SOLAR WA
Strong sunshine stretches VT ME
across much of the southern MT ND MN
United States, but the most OR NH
intense and predictable sunlight ID SD WI NY MA
WY MI RI
is in the Southwest, providing CT
IA PA
the best opportunities for NV NE
OH NJ
concentrated solar power. UT IL IN DE
CA CO WV
KS MO VA MD
KY DC
Average solar radiation available NC
TN
kilowatt-hours per square foot per day AZ NM OK AR SC
MS AL GA
0.3 0.6
TX
AK LA
HI FL
Percentage of renewable
energy needed, by source
WATER SOLAR
3%
Hydroelectric 7.2% Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) 30.7% Utility PV 7.3% Concentrated
0.4% Wave Rows of solar panels sit atop Solar farms convert direct and solar power (CSP) plants
0.1% Tidal homes and commercial buildings. diffuse sunlight into electricity Industrial-scale plants use
using photovoltaic cells. lenses or mirrors to focus
1.3% Geothermal
sunlight and heat fluids.
WIND WA
The difference between VT ME
wind power’s average MT ND MN
output and its peak varies OR NH
dramatically. Offshore New ID SD WI NY MA
WY MI RI
England, the Great Plains, CT
IA PA
and the Great Lakes region NV NE
OH NJ
offer the best potential. UT IL IN DE
CA CO WV
KS MO VA MD
KY DC
NC
TN
Average wind-capacity factor AZ NM OK AR SC
MS AL GA
0% 70% EEZ
TX
LA
U.S. Exclusive AK
Economic Zone (EEZ) HI FL
EEZ
WIND
Economies
of scale
Mass production
drove down the cost of
Henry Ford’s Model T by
62 percent. Experts hope
that growing demand for
energy from wind and
solar projects will have a
similar effect, making the
costs of each competitive
with fossil fuels.
HENRY FORD COLLECTIONS
A common
goal
After the bombing
of Pearl Harbor, the
U.S. built an arsenal of
more than half a million
armored vehicles, ships,
and aircraft, including
the B-17 Flying Fortress,
made by Lockheed-Vega
in California. Similarly,
an arsenal of renewable
energy projects could
be rapidly built.
ANTHONY POTTER COLLECTION/
GETTY IMAGES
25% 15%
Onshore Concentrated
wind solar power
(CSP) plants
A Wealth of Resources
OPPORTUNITIES: From rivers
to ocean waves, the Golden Total area of California:
12,528 $127.9
billion
$7,395
DEATHS FROM AIR ANNUAL ENERGY, HEALTH,
POLLUTION AVOIDED, SAVINGS FROM DEATH AND CLIMATE COSTS
PER YEAR AND ILLNESS PREVENTED SAVINGS, PER PERSON
70national geographic • n ov e mbe r 2015 *Includes existing land and offshore projects
31.3% 5%
Utility PV CSP plants
35%
Utility PV
5%
2.5% 2% CSP plants
Rooftop PV Rooftop PV
0.1% 288,769 MW 3% 34,097
Hydroelectric Hydroelectric MW
0.4% 55%
Wave Onshore wind
0.7%
Onshore
wind
60%
Offshore
wind
OBSTACLES: Offshore wind projects are OBSTACLES: North Dakota’s small population
controversial and have large up-front costs. means its overall energy use is low, but only
The nation’s first (in Rhode Island) won’t Wyoming, Alaska, and Louisiana consume
begin operating until next year. Louisiana more energy per person. Its renewable
politics has strong ties to the oil industry. energy goal is just 10 percent.
Offshore area:
11.3%
Northeast states could rely Onshore wind power would be
heavily on offshore wind power. most dominant across the Midwest.
DE KS
RI IA
MD OK
MA SD
NJ MN
0 25 50 75 100% 0 25 50 75 100%
Ca r b o n - F r e e A m e r i ca 71
10.6% 32% 79.7%
Rooftop Utility PV Utility PV
photovoltaic (PV) 5.3%
Rooftop PV
6.5%
Hydroelectric
1.5%
2% Hydro-
Geothermal 70,418 MW electric 146,831 MW
8.5%
18.9% Onshore
Onshore wind wind
30%
Concentrated solar 5%
power (CSP) plants CSP plants
ARIZONA KENTUCKY
OBSTACLES: Utilities seek and often get OBSTACLES: Coal is still king in Kentucky,
higher fees from homeowners who install where it is used to supply more than
rooftop panels. One-quarter of Arizona’s 90 percent of electricity. The state has
electricity is used for air-conditioning—four no formal goal to use more renewable
times the national average. The state has energy. Hydroelectric dams generate
the nation’s largest nuclear power plant. only 4 percent of its electricity.
Solar power will also be crucial to States that now depend largely on coal would
meeting the Southeast’s energy needs. each follow a unique path toward sustainability.
MS WY
TN WV
AL PA
FL MT
GA IL
0 25 50 75 100% 0 25 50 75 100%
15.8% Utility PV
5.5% Rooftop PV
0.2% Hydroelectric
0.1% Wave
0.5% Geothermal 672,054 megawatts (MW)
Total energy needed in 2050
TEXAS
Infrastructure challenge
OBSTACLES: Lone Star politicians
have led the nation in battling
climate change regulations.
65,188 ONSHORE WIND
TURBINES NEEDED
Ca r b o n - F r e e A m e r i ca 73
HOW TO FIX IT
74
At a brick kiln in India’s rural state of
Uttar Pradesh, workers use solar lanterns
to illuminate their paths. The developing
world struggles to provide power to its
people. Worldwide, about 1.1 billion
people have no access to electricity.
A worker at a logging camp in Myanmar’s
Bago region, where elephants have been
used by loggers for centuries, sits atop
his 11-year-old animal. Laborers in these
camps have no electricity, so they use
solar lanterns before sunrise.
Ibrahim Kalungi and Godfrey Mteza,
both 20, work at night in their motorcycle
repair shop in Nbeeda, Uganda.
The mechanics credit solar lights with
enabling them to work longer hours
stor
and earn more money.
By Michael Edison Hayden
Photographs by Rubén Salgado Escudero
the grimy black soot released by kerosene scars grid to be built. They need power now.”
human lungs. Mandal’s neighbors who have Needham explains that he got the idea for his
electricity say that it stays on only two to three company while visiting with members of a wom-
hours each day, with no alerts from the govern- en’s rights organization in Tanzania in 2010. He
ment about when the blackouts will start or end. saw people paying a neighbor to recharge their
Mandal, however, would have no viable source cell phones using a solar panel she owned. “It
of power without solar because of the impro- dawned on me that this could really be viable as
vised nature of his home. a business model,” he says. “Solar could be sold.”
Simpa CEO Paul Needham, who used to In India’s rural marketplaces, sellers profited
work in Microsoft’s advertising department in from solar for years before companies such as
Washington State, lives a far more privileged Simpa began offering their services to custom-
life in India than Mandal could ever dream of. ers like Mandal. In stalls the size of closets men
He has running water in his home and a near- show off inexpensive solar units by cooling them-
steady flow of electricity and Wi-Fi. Originally selves under a fan. Customers drawn in by the
from Vancouver, Canada, Needham moved to demonstration interrogate the sellers, who show
India in 2012 hoping to help bridge the gap them thin red and blue wires that could connect
between people like himself and Mandal. “In to lightbulbs, mobile phones, or fans. These so-
many ways India is a divided society, because lar units, which are labeled falsely with brand
after decades of rapid development, rural areas names such as Rolex, Gucci, and Mercedes, cost
like these still lag behind major cities,” he says. three to four dollars—a fraction of what Man-
“Our customers can’t wait for a better power dal pays Simpa every month. The problem with
S o lar Power 81
In the Jubilee Revival Church in Sango
Bay, Uganda, members of the choir
rehearse by solar light the night before
services. Sango Bay is a small fishing
village with 120 households.
these models, according to Needham and others come along with it, and I think that’s great.”
in India’s burgeoning solar services industry, is The chance to escape India’s blistering heat
that they’re poorly made and frequently fail. is perhaps the strongest incentive for leasing a
Julian Marshall, a professor of environmental solar system. Shiv Kumar, a 20-year-old laborer
engineering at the University of Minnesota, says in Madhotanda, makes his living gathering hay
the solar-service industry has great potential for farmers, earning less than $2.50 on the days
to thrive and to improve people’s lives in devel- he works. When food is scarce, he sometimes
oping countries, calling it a “feel-good story.” works for grain rations. The home he shares
Marshall monitors air pollution inside homes with his father and brother is concrete, with two
of customers both on and off the grid, research- tiny rooms that offer little ventilation. So when
ing the damage inflicted by kerosene and other a sales associate from Simpa demonstrated the
dirty-energy sources. Across India, fumes from solar kit, it was the fan that sold him. “The kero-
kerosene lanterns combine with soot spewed by sene lamp was dim and yellow and made me feel
coal-burning power plants, triggering heart at- depressed,” Kumar says, standing in the fan’s
tacks and lung damage in many people. Marshall breeze. “But this is the best fan I’ve seen.”
credits around half a dozen solar companies, in- Neel Shah, a Simpa product management
cluding Simpa, for taking an innovative approach leader, can attest that the challenges of bringing
to sales in rural India. “The customer makes the solar services to rural areas often stretch beyond
decision to buy solar services primarily for per- whether people can afford them. One time men
sonal financial reasons,” he says. “But health traveling on Shah’s train attacked him. Another
and environmental benefits for the community time villagers in the district of Mathura warned
Shah that members of a gang, known for wear- Back in Madhotanda, inside the tent where
ing just underwear and lubricating their bodies he sells tea, Mandal reassembles his solar unit
with oil to avoid capture, were coming that night and hangs up the lamp. The space is empty in
to loot homes. The villagers apologized to Shah the punishing heat of the afternoon as he stirs
and escorted him to a rickshaw. Uttar Pradesh, the tea in a metal cauldron lit by a wood fire.
India’s most populous state—with 40 percent A few passersby will arrive by sundown, when
more people than Russia—is also its most chaot- the air cools.
ic. Gangs and violent crime are endemic, as are Mandal wishes he could lease a second solar
elected officials with criminal records. unit so that his children could have a more se-
“The solar business can be frustrating, but cus- cluded place to study. But for now his priority
tomers like Mandal make it worth it,” says Shah, is growing his business, a goal he believes solar
who met Mandal earlier this year after Mandal power can help him achieve.
called Simpa to express his admiration. “We want “When customers see the lights,” he says,
to see a million people like him with light.” “they will come.” j
Award-winning photographer Rubén Did the use of solar of the portraits for this
Salgado Escudero began his career power affect your project. I wanted to work
as a 3-D video game animator. Born photos in this story? with the same type of
in Spain and now based in Myan- Solar-powered light light that is improving
mar, he focuses his photography on was the only source of my subjects’ quality of
overlooked people and places. illumination I used in all life so substantially.
NATASCHA RISSMANN
S o lar Power 83
In India’s state of Odisha villagers trap
fish using cone-shaped baskets and
solar light. Fewer than half of Odisha’s
42 million residents use grid electricity.
86
CLIMATE CHANGE SURVIVAL GUIDE
How to Live
With It
Humans do not lack for advice on how to live with our
circumstances. A Google search, that yardstick of ubiquity,
yields more than 55 million results for “how to live with.”
Make it “how to live with climate change,” and the results
drop—to about 44,000. That’s a lot of ideas. Surely we can
find a few that will help us adapt to what we can’t fix.
If it’s true that we learn by doing, then the learning
has begun. What we face is daunting: extreme heat and
weather; threats to water, crops, and health. But with tech-
nology and ingenuity, Earth’s custodians are finding new
ways to manage our changed reality. —Patricia Edmonds
OCEAN
Covering 71 percent of our blue-marbled planet, the seas now absorb so much
human-generated CO2 and energy from the sun that seawater chemistry and
temperatures are endangering many organisms. Changes in the marine environment
affect what thrives in the water and what we can harvest from it. Sea-level shifts are
altering coastlines and undermining buildings, posing risks to human life.
Warmer water
As oceans continue to warm,
marine ecosystems react.
Some species are able to
adapt by moving closer to
the cooler Poles.
Thirteen large U.S. airports In New Orleans the Twin The atmosphere can
have at least one runway at Span Bridge has been hold 7 percent more
an elevation within 12 feet of rebuilt 21 feet higher, above water vapor for every rise
the current sea level. future storm surges. of one degree Celsius.
LAND ICE
The dynamic interactions between climate change and The freshwater that was once frozen in the Arctic,
freshwater resources on land are critically tied to the Greenland, Antarctica, and global alpine regions is
availability of good-quality water for human use. Today melting and spilling into the world’s oceans, streams,
at least half the world’s population relies on groundwater and soil. As more ice melts, rivers and watersheds will
for safe drinking water. With projected urban growth fill at first. But as the ice dwindles, so will the runoff—
expected to increase demand by 55 percent by 2050, and the available freshwater. If conservation doesn’t
we’ll have to manage future water use carefully. stem the problem, water-use restrictions loom.
Dwindling freshwater
Water managers will need
a flexible mix of strategies.
Among them: harvesting
rainwater, reusing water,
improving storage systems,
and diversifying crops.
River erosion, intensified by climate Mangrove restoration projects dot the planet: Vietnam, Djibouti,
change, has destroyed part of Newtok, Brazil. These efforts not only protect coastal communities from
Alaska. Water may reach the school, rising seas and storm surges but also help increase biodiversity
the village’s flood shelter, by 2017. and sustain livelihoods.
0
Many crops will suffer in
Climate change is likely to be Brazil. Under the Had-
most forgiving of wheat, but GEM2 model, corn farm-
not enough to offset losses ers will see crops decline
from other major crops. by nearly 16 percent.
A group of Native Americans called Eighty percent of In a warmer world, fish catches
the Haudenosaunee Confederacy global deforesta- may increase up to 70 percent in
is preparing for climate change tion is caused by some regions but drop 60 percent
through seed banking. agriculture. in the tropics and Antarctica.
CORN POTATOES RICE WHEAT
Climate change will open Potatoes tend to grow Unlike crops facing steep Virtually all climate
new areas to corn (also best in cold tempera- reductions, rice—which scenarios show reduced
known as maize) but will tures. In warmer climates, can grow in warm or wheat yields. Warmer
reduce production in cur- it may be possible to cold—may do well. weather globally is also
rent areas. More farmers grow them farther north Researchers think Africa’s likely to spur more devas-
in more places will grow it. or higher in mountains. output could double. tating crop diseases.
EUR OP E
ASIA
A FRICA
A US T R A LI A
West Africa’s rich soil and Indonesia’s rice produc- New parts of Australia
abundant water may support tion will be largely spared will become arable, but
more rice. Parts of East Africa by climate change, but droughts will require
are believed to have great po- corn will decline as much efficient farming if growing
tential to expand production. as 20 percent. wheat is to continue.
To meet demand caused by population Women, if they had the same NASA satellite technology
growth, annual world agricultural pro- access to resources as men, identifying California fields
duction will need to increase by 60 could boost yields on their idled by drought can help
to 70 percent by 2050. farms by up to 30 percent. with water allocation plans.
MAP: EVAN APPLEGATE. SOURCES: UN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION; RICKY ROBERTSON, IFPRI
High Heat
The world will feel different in 2100, when average temperatures will have risen
by several degrees. Every kind of landscape that humans inhabit will be affected:
urban, suburban, rural; mountains, plains, coasts. More of the developing world will
acquire life-changing modern comforts. “You’ll have near-universal saturation of air-
conditioning” in warm climes by 2100, says economist Lucas Davis of the University of
California, Berkeley. By powering those devices, though, we’ll be contributing to global
warming. If we can’t find ways to turn down the heat, we’ll find ways to adapt to it.
DEGREES OF SEPARATION
The annual mean air temperature of a city can be 4° to 11°F warmer than surrounding
rural areas during the day, and 4° to 9°F warmer at night. Vegetation-rich green roofs
can mitigate this urban heat-island effect, lowering the temperature by more than
5°F on the hottest days; plants also help manage excess storm water.
Vegetation can lower If average tempera- To adapt to higher temperatures, developing coun-
surface temperatures by tures rise 21°F, half the tries must spend $75 billion to $100 billion annually
up to 40°F, with shade population could face until 2050. Mitigation costs are projected to be $140
and evapotranspiration. unlivable conditions. billion to $175 billion a year for the next 15 years.
HEAT HUSBANDRY TAMING THE FLAMES
Although adjustments will vary by “Fire-adapted communities” could
region, more farmers will switch to dot at-risk landscapes. Ringed by fuel
raising heat-tolerant livestock. That breaks where flammable vegetation
means more sheep, pigs, and goats has been removed, these protected
replacing beef cattle and chickens. enclaves—populated by citizens
Yields of crops like soybeans could educated in fire safety—help safeguard
increase as carbon dioxide levels rise, home and health. Wildfires are pre-
but many crops will be at risk from dicted to rise more than 60 percent
drought and extreme weather. in some medium and higher latitudes.
ART: ROMUALDO FAURA. SOURCES: MICHAEL SIVAK; CGIAR; MAX MORITZ, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY;
U.S. NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT; MATTHEOS SANTAMOURIS, UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS; USDA
Wild Weather
Torrential hurricanes, devastating droughts, crippling ice storms, and raging heat
waves—all are extreme weather phenomena that can claim lives and cause untold
damage. Climate change influences severe weather by causing longer droughts and
higher temperatures in some regions and more intense deluges in others, say climate
experts. Among the most vulnerable are communities in exposed mountain and coastal
regions. In those settings worldwide, citizens are adjusting to new weather realities by
strengthening warning, shelter, and protection systems.
SURVIVING STORMS
A fierce cyclone hits Bangladesh about every three
years. In 1991 Cyclone Marian killed 140,000. In 2007
Cyclone Sidr flattened 565,000 homes, but a warning
system and fortified shelters helped limit deaths to
“Imagine the day we can
3,500. Today restoring coastal mangroves and hillside capture the energy of a
forests aims to stave off surging seas, landslides, and
floods during future storms. hurricane and use it to power
a city that would otherwise
have been destroyed.”
SUCCUMBING TO HEAT Neil deGrasse Tyson
The global average temperature in May 2015 was the director of the Hayden Planetarium at the
highest on record. In India some 2,200 people perished American Museum of Natural History
during a ten-day heat wave when reported highs hit
113°F (45°C). To cope, the city of Ahmadabad offered
potable water and cooling centers in high-risk areas
and trained health aides to treat heat-related illness.
174
METEOROLOGICAL EVENTS
Tropical, extratropical,
convective, and local storms
1980 1990 1992
Notable natural disasters: Hurricane Andrew
In 2006 the Pets Evacuation and Transportation Insurance companies can adjust to climate change
Standards (PETS) Act was created in the U.S. by raising premiums on threatened properties. But if
to address the needs of animal companions property owners choose not to pay, the government
after a major disaster or emergency. may have to pick up the tab for damages.
The price of natural catastrophes
Costly storm and flood damage to burgeoning coastal infrastructure is
RISING SEAS, RISING CONCERNS growing. Innovations such as building floating villages and relocating
Climate change may not cause a particular storm, vulnerable assets away from rising seas can reduce risk and losses.
but rising sea levels can worsen its impact. In 2012 a
$400
nine-foot storm surge from Hurricane Sandy hit New billion* Japan
York City at high tide, making the water 14 feet higher earthquake,
than normal at the tip of Manhattan. Flooding destroyed 3 Katrina tsunami
neighborhoods and beaches in outer boroughs. The
sea level in this area is rising by more than an inch each 2 Ivan Sandy
Hurricane
decade—twice as fast as the global average—and is Andrew
predicted to rise 11 to 21 inches by 2050. To prepare, 1
the city is implementing coastal resiliency measures: A
multiuse project will create more green spaces for city
residents as well as a system of floodwalls, berms, and
1980 1990 2000 2010 ’14
retractable barriers for enhanced storm protection.
*Values as of 2014 adjusted for inflation
904
91 2014
total
413
400
GEOPHYSICAL EVENTS
Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity
Though they can be extreme, geophysical events are not
directly associated with changes in climate and weather.
SOURCES: AHMADABAD HEAT ACTION PLAN 2015; BANGLADESH CLIMATE PLAN 2009; CITY OF NEW YORK; IPCC; MUNICH RE NATCATSERVICE; NOAA
Health Risks
Climate change isn’t just bad for the planet’s
health—it’s bad for people’s too. Effects will
vary by age, gender, geography, and socio-
economic status—and so will remedies.
A recent international study in the Lancet
says that many more people will be exposed
to extreme weather events over the next cen-
tury than previously thought—“a potentially
catastrophic risk to human health” that
could undo 50 years of global health gains. Power outages in
extreme weather
Beyond the direct impact of extreme could cripple hospitals
weather, climate change can affect a person’s and transportation
systems when we
well-being in other, less direct ways, by need them most.
exposure to such things as air pollution, wa-
terborne diseases, famine, and malnutrition.
Solutions are in the works. In flood-prone
Benin, the national health insurance policy
has been expanded to cover malaria and Crop declines could
intestinal infections—which are likely to lead to undernutrition,
increase as the world warms and sea levels hunger, and higher food
prices. More CO2 in the
rise. In the steamy Philippines, programs air could make staple
are helping low-income neighborhoods’ crops like barley and
soy less nutritious.
residents manage weather-related risks
with small-scale loans, hygiene education,
and local waste and water control.
Meanwhile public health experts
everywhere are calling for far-reaching
improvements that will help people stay Occupational hazards such
as risk of heatstroke will rise,
healthy despite floods, droughts, and especially among farmers and
heat waves. They’re backing greater construction workers. Labor
could shift to dawn and dusk,
access to clean water, sanitation systems, times when more disease-
vaccinations, and childhood health care. carrying insects are out.
Wildfire-sparked pollution
can lead to respiratory prob-
lems. And ozone also can be
deadly: It may have caused
half the deaths in Europe’s
2003 heat wave.
Trauma from floods, droughts,
and heat waves can lead to
mental health issues like anxi-
ety, depression, and suicide.
Mosquito-borne dengue
fever has increased 30-
fold in the past 50 years.
Three-quarters of those
exposed so far live in the
Asia-Pacific region.
Soil degradation, fresh- Rising sea levels can threaten Extreme weather
water scarcity, population freshwater supplies for people usually affects older,
pressures, and other forces living in low-lying areas. More sedentary people more
related to climate change are severe storms can cause city than younger people
potential causes of conflict. sewage systems to overflow. with greater mobility.
M E LT I N G AWAY
For Greenland’s hunters, fading sea ice could mean
moving beyond a traditional way of living.
98
Albert Lukassen’s world
is melting around him.
When the 64-year-old
Inuit man was young,
he could hunt by dog-
sled on the frozen
Uummannaq Fjord, on
Greenland’s west coast,
until June. This photo
shows him there in April.
All the photographs for
this story were taken on
the fjord.
A movie projected onto
an iceberg lights up
the faces of two girls
from the island town of
Uummannaq, Nielsine
(far left) and Jensigne
(right), and of hunter
Joas Korneliussen. The
movie is Inuk—the tale
of an Inuit boy, raised in
the city, who returns to
the region and discov-
ers traditional hunting.
By Tim Folger
Photographs by Ciril Jazbec
greenland 105
Now a culture that has baited hooks. In the winter they cut knee-deep
holes in the sea ice, sink their lines, which are
evolved here over many hundreds of feet long, and reel in their catch
centuries, adapting to the with a winch. On a good day a fisherman might
load his boat or dogsled with a quarter ton or
seasonal advance and more of the flat, dull-brown fish and sell them
retreat of sea ice, is facing to Royal Greenland for several hundred dollars.
the prospect that the ice Although fishing provides a good income
for many families, the smallest settlements
will retreat for good. wouldn’t survive without generous government
subsidies. Even the most remote communities
have heliports, cell towers, grocery stores, clin-
of them, live their lives facing seaward, with a ics, and elementary schools—all subsidized by
vast, uninhabitable interior at their backs. No an annual block grant from Denmark, which
roads cross the glaciers and plunging fjords that stands at $580 million and accounts for a quar-
separate the scattered coastal towns. These ter of Greenland’s gross domestic product.
days planes, helicopters, and fast motorboats Greenlanders who dream of full independence
help connect them—but traditionally, at least from their former colonial master—right now
in more northerly places like Uummannaq, it Greenland is in charge only of its domestic
was sea ice that brought an end to isolation and policy—pin their hopes on mineral wealth and
autumnal little-town blues. In winter dogsleds, offshore oil. But the oil fields haven’t been de-
snowmobiles, even taxis and fuel trucks can ma- veloped yet, and according to one recent study,
neuver across what had been open water. For as mining would require so many immigrant work-
long as the Inuit have been in Greenland, winter ers that Greenlanders might become a minority
has been the time for visits, journeys, and hunts. in their own land.
Of the 2,200 people who live along Uumman-
naq Fjord, more than half are on its namesake Climate change is making the economies of
island, on the slopes of a 3,840-foot-high peak the settlements even more precarious. It has
called Heart-Shaped (Uummannaq in Green- lengthened the periods in winter and spring
landic) Mountain. The town has steep, narrow when ice is too thick for boats to leave harbors
roads with cars on them; it has stores, a hospi- yet not thick enough to support sleds or snow-
tal, and bars. It’s the region’s commercial and mobiles. The unsafe ice affects fishing, but it
social hub, the place where people in the seven hurts the region’s hunters more.
outlying settlements, including Niaqornat, send “In the 1980s we had cold winters,” says
their children to high school and come to shop. Uunartoq Løvstrøm, a lean 72-year-old hunter
In Uummannaq you can work as an auto me- and one of 200 residents of Saattut, a small is-
chanic, social worker, or teacher. land near the head of Uummannaq Fjord. “And
In the settlements people make a living by ice was this thick,” he says, rising from a sofa
hunting and fishing. Whale and seal meat are and placing his hand even with his hip. We’re in
an important part of the diet, but their export is the living room of his blue wood-frame home, a
largely banned. The real moneymaker is halibut. short, slippery walk from Saattut’s harbor. On
Many settlements have a fish factory operat- the low table between us are some polar bear
ed by Royal Greenland, a government-owned claws, souvenirs from a long-ago hunt. A large
company that processes and packages the hal- flat-screen television is temporarily muted. Sled
ibut for export. Halibut fishing is a year-round dogs nap outside in the early gloaming.
occupation. When there’s no ice, fishermen At the height of winter in recent years, says
set out long lines in the fjord with hundreds of Løvstrøm, ice in the fjord might be only a foot
AS
IA
72°
S i b
er
ia Umiammakku Isbræ
S igguup Rink Isbræ
Nunaa
ARCTIC (Sv a r t en h u k
A R CTIC CIRC LE
OCEAN Ha lv ø ) Nuugaatsiaq
d
j
or
North
Pole I sf GREENLAND
at
NORTH
rr (KALAALLIT
GREENLAND
Ka
NUNAAT)
AREA
ENLARGED (DENMARK)
AME
DENMARK
Uummannaq Fjord
Nuuk Sermeq
RI
B a f f
(Godthåb) Niaqorna
t Silarleq
Saattut
CA
Uummannaq
ATLANTIC 7,034 ft
OCEAN 2,144 m Uummannaq
Nu
i n
uss
Change in the number ua Store
of sea-ice days per year, q Gletscher
1979-2013
B a y
Va
i ga
t
-250 0 50
70°N
VANISHING ICE
In recent decades the Eqip
Sermia
glaciers surrounding Qeqertarsuaq
Uummannaq Fjord have (Di sko)
been melting at an acceler-
ating rate, and the number
of days a year when sea
ice covers the fjord has Sermeq
Avannarleq
been declining. Ilulissat
(Jakobshavn)
Qeqertarsuup Tunua
(Disko Bay) Jakobshavn Isbræ
54°W
0 mi 20
0 km 20
52° (Sermeq Kujalleq)
thick. Instead of icing over in December or When a hunter does bag a seal, it sinks
January and melting in June, the sea freezes in through a surface layer of fresh glacial meltwa-
February and starts to thaw in April. The loss ter and floats on top of the salt water below. The
of ice has shortened the hunting season, in a hunter has to haul it up. But the glaciers flowing
land where wild meat helps families get by: Seal, into Uummannaq Fjord are melting faster than
reindeer, and whale meat fills freezers for the ever. The freshwater layer is getting thicker, so
year. And shooting seals from boats is a poor the dead seals sink deeper. Sometimes now
substitute for the traditional dogsled hunt. A they’re out of reach.
hunter on a sled can get off and stealthily ap-
proach his prey. On a noisy boat, he can’t get as Peak ice season is still at least three months
close; from a distance he must take a difficult away on the crystalline October day when I join
shot at a seal coming up for air in open water. Løvstrøm’s 66-year-old brother, Thomas, as he
greenland 111
A polar bear skin dries
on a rack outside the
home of Ane Løvstrøm
on Saattut Island. She’s
one of the few women in
the community with the
skill to fashion boots and
pants from the skin of
the far north’s greatest
predator. Hunters prize
her garments, which
provide unparalleled
warmth.
“The Inuit hunters have
Ph.D.’s in living in nature.
I think these small,
remote communities can
invent a sustainable
future for themselves.”
Jean-Michel Huctin, anthropologist
greenland 115
Karl-Frederik Jensen
tosses frozen halibut to
his sled dogs. He keeps
them on an uninhabited
island where they needn’t
be chained. Less ice
makes it harder for dogs
to earn their keep; some
hunters have killed theirs.
settlements for 18 years, gets into a lively discus-
sion with a man from Nuuk, Greenland’s capital
and largest town, with more than 16,000 people.
The subject is the future of places like Niaqornat
and Saattut—and whether they even have one.
The Nuuk man, who prefers not to be quoted
by name, is ambivalent about propping up the
settlements with subsidies.
“If we don’t move out of isolation, we will al-
ways be conservative,” he tells Huctin. “I don’t
want to live in a museum. I don’t want to live in
the old way. My son, my daughter should be part
of the world.” By subsidizing the settlements, he
thinks, the government is providing “welfare for
hunters” and slotting young people into a life
of hunting and fishing rather than encouraging
them to look beyond tradition.
But job opportunities in Greenland are few,
Huctin retorts, and anyway what would happen
to older hunters such as the Løvstrøm broth-
ers? Should they trade their independence, give
up their dogsleds, boats, and rifles for life in one
of Nuuk’s grim apartment blocks? The loss of
the settlements, Huctin says, would be a loss for
all. They’re bastions of Inuit hunting culture.
Somehow they should be maintained.
“The Inuit hunters have Ph.D.’s in living in
nature, appreciating nature,” Huctin tells me lat-
er. “This is very important, to keep this knowl-
edge. I think these small, remote communities
can invent a sustainable future for themselves.
This is a people that went from subsistence hunt-
ing to Facebook in less than a century. Now they Weary and frustrated after four fruitless
have airlines and mining companies. I’m sure days of seal hunting, Knud Jensen
(wearing sealskin) and Apollo Mathias-
they will succeed in the future.”
sen go on searching for prey in the
broken ice of Uummannaq Fjord. Unlike
Yet settlements all over Greenland are some of his peers, Jensen, who’s 15,
losing population. Niaqornat’s has fallen to wants to make his living as a hunter and
50, from 75 a decade ago. It came very close to has no desire to leave his community for
a job in one of Greenland’s larger towns.
being abandoned a few years back when the
community’s fish-processing plant shut down.
Niaqornat’s fishermen had to motor 40 miles
to Uummannaq to sell their catch. It wasn’t a
tenable situation. But rather than abandon their
homes, Niaqornat’s residents pooled their sav-
ings and bought the processing plant. For now
their community is hanging on.
greenland 119
Boys on a seawall on
Tarawa atoll watch a squall
approach. The warming
atmosphere is predicted to
bring heavier rainfall to
Kiribati and other island
nations in the central
Pacific Ocean.
120
HOW T O L I V E W I T H I T
I
t was the time called homeland as a “disappearing island nation,”
itingaaro, the dawn twi- its fate already out of their hands. They do
light, when the island not think of themselves as “sinking islanders,”
was just waking up and rather as descendants of voyagers, inheritors of
the roosters were vying a proud tradition of endurance and survival.
to out-crow each other They believe their paradise is far from lost.
and the angel terns were
twittering their love talk But it is surely suffering. The sea is be-
in the breadfruit trees. coming an unwelcome intruder, eroding the
People drifted sleepily shoreline and infiltrating soils, turning wells
into the lagoon to wash, brackish and killing crops and trees. Atolls like
splashing water on their Tarawa rely for their fertility on a lens of fresh-
faces, then tightening water, replenished by rain, which floats on a
their sarongs and diving under. saltwater aquifer. As the sea level rises—a few
The tide was full and taut like the skin of a millimeters a year at the moment but likely to
pregnant woman. Beyond the lagoon the ocean accelerate—so does the level of salt water under-
stretched to the horizon. Marawa, karawa, ground, shrinking the freshwater sweet spot.
tarawa—sea, sky, land. These are the ancient “Now we hate the sea,” Henry Kaake told me
trinity of the people of Kiribati (kee-ree-bahss), as we sat in his kiakia, an open-sided hut on
the I-Kiribati. But the trinity is tilting out of bal- stilts used for both sleeping and chatting with
ance. Mother Ocean isn’t the heart of providence friends. “Yes, the sea is good for us to get our
the people have always known. She is begin- food, but it is going to steal our land one day.”
ning to show a different face, a menacing one of An early casualty of creeping salinity has
encroaching tides and battering waves. been bwabwai, the prestige food of Kiribati
I-Kiribati now live with the reality of marawa culture, the food of feasts, a giant swamp taro
rising. This is the time of bibitakin kanoan that can take more than five years to mature.
boong—“change in weather over many days”—the Some varieties reach from a person’s shoulder
Kiribati phrase for climate change. The people to the ground. Sensitive to saltwater intrusion
live with the fear and uncertainty of those words. in the pits in which it’s cultivated, bwabwai now
How can they not feel afraid when the world cannot be grown in many areas and could even-
keeps telling them that low-lying island coun- tually disappear from island cuisine.
tries like theirs will soon be underwater? Their Government and aid agencies are helping
own leaders have said that Kiribati—33 coral gardeners switch to other starchy crops. In a
islands in an expanse of the central Pacific larger communal garden on one of Tarawa’s neighbor-
than India—is “among the most vulnerable ing atolls, Abaiang, I watched Makurita Teakin
of the vulnerable.” They have predicted that chop leaves into mulch and spread it around
Tarawa atoll, the nation’s capital, will become seedlings of a shallow-rooting variety of taro
uninhabitable within a generation. that doesn’t need swamp conditions. Nearby,
But many I-Kiribati refuse to think of their another woman watered her seedlings with fish
fertilizer from a can punched with nail holes. Holding fast to tradition matters for many
The tide drained from the vast sand flats of I-Kiribati. Mwairin Timon was making coconut
Tarawa lagoon, exposing myriad miniature sand sennit when I met her, sitting on an old panda-
volcanoes built by ghost crabs. Adults and children, nus mat outside her shanty at the edge of the
toting plastic bags and buckets, probed the sand lagoon, rolling tufts of coconut fiber on a piece
with their fingers and scratched in the crevices of driftwood with the palm of her hand. More
of rocks with teaspoons for cockles—called koikoi— than a year ago she had buried coconut husks
and sea snails. The harvesters walked far out to the in the lagoon, marking the place with a rock. A
water’s receding edge, bending over double, sifting thousand tides had done their work, curing and
and scraping for a few ounces of seafood. softening the fibers. Now she twisted them into
If they found enough cockles, they might string the same way her grandmother would
prepare them in coconut cream, cooking have, and her grandmother before her, all the
them inside a coconut shell over a smoky way back to the first settlers of these atolls, who
coconut-husk fire. Coconut palm—nii—is there splashed ashore some 3,000 years ago.
anything this tree doesn’t provide? Baskets, Rain clouds darkened and moved across the
brooms, timber, thatch, oil, fermented toddy, lagoon, blotting out the islets of North Tarawa,
soap, a dark sweet syrup called kamwaimwai. the other side of wishbone-shaped Tarawa atoll.
Tree of heaven, some people call it. I-Kiribati Soon they would bring relief to this side, South
have more than a dozen words for the stages Tarawa, where half the nation’s people live on
of the fruit alone—from a young nut before the barely six square miles of land.
water forms to an old one with rancid flesh. It is a mercy that rainfall is predicted to
k i r i b at i 127
increase over the coming decades, although onshore by storms—to keep their heads above
downpours are likely to be more extreme, causing water. They are like construction sites: If the
flooding. As underground freshwater reserves materials run out, building will cease. A dead
are compromised by rising seas—and in Tarawa’s reef cannot sustain the islands it has built.
case, heavy population pressure—harvesting What kind of world is this, where the sea con-
rainwater from roofs may offer an alternative. sumes its own creation?
On Abaiang foreign aid has provided some com-
munities with simple systems that catch, filter, To many I-Kiribati it seems deeply unfair that
treat, and store rainfall. As long as you have their country’s climate troubles are not of its
freshwater, you can cope with other changes— own making. Since the 1980s Pacific leaders
at least for a while. How long, no one knows. have scolded, cajoled, pleaded with, and tried
The tide turned and slid shoreward like a to shame the major carbon-polluting countries
over climate change. The islands are ants and the
industrialized nations are elephants, declared
How can they not Teburoro Tito, a former Kiribati president,
feel afraid when the speaking of the infinitesimal contribution his
country has made to the planet’s carbon burden.
world keeps telling them There is an aspect to the rich world’s dis-
that low-lying island regard that is especially hard for I-Kiribati to
stomach. They are particular about respecting
countries like theirs will boundaries. Traditionally, you never took coco-
soon be underwater? nuts from a tree that wasn’t yours. You wouldn’t
even take dead breadfruit leaves to light a fire
without asking. Reefs had boundaries too. Peo-
sheet of green glass, pushing the harvesters ple knew where they were entitled to harvest.
ahead of it. Tides are an axis of Kiribati life. So Those protocols are still observed today.
are the movements of sun, moon, and stars and When I joined fishermen traveling from Tarawa
the directions of wind and swell. In times past, to Abaiang, on a day so calm the clouds had blue-
if you understood these axes, you could calcu- green bellies from the reflection of the sea, the
late when to plant crops, when to fish, when to skipper stopped the outboard motor at a certain
set sail in hundred-foot outrigger canoes called reef and one of the crew threw hand-rolled pan-
baurua. Such was the algebra of the Pacific. danus cigarettes into the sea as offerings and a
Fishermen knew the bait each fish preferred, mark of respect for the owners of the territory
whether to catch it in the day or night, and the we were crossing.
best tactic for taking it: hook, noose, or net. But When you travel to another island for the first
the certainties of that world are breaking down. time, before you do anything else, you announce
Once reliable fishing places now yield empty yourself to the place by visiting a sacred site.
lines and nets. The warming ocean is thought to You make a gift of cigarettes or a few coins, and
be driving some fish to cooler waters. the caretaker picks up damp sand and pats it
Coral reefs are suffering as well—and worse on your cheeks and ties a tendril of green vine
is yet to come. As the sea grows warmer and around your head. After performing this ritual
more acidic throughout this century, reef on Abaiang, the caretaker of the shrine told me,
growth is predicted to slow and even stop. Coral “You now belong to this island.”
bleaching—when stressed corals expel the sym- What do the wealthy countries know of
biotic algae that give them color and nutrients— respecting boundaries? I picture a cloud of
used to happen every ten years or so. But it’s greenhouse gases drifting toward Tarawa from
becoming more frequent and eventually could over the horizon, like radioactivity from the
happen yearly, threatening coral survival and nuclear weapons exploded in Kiribati’s Line
dimming the reefs’ living rainbow to a shadow. Islands after the Second World War. It doesn’t
Where reefs go, islands will follow. Atoll seem so very different: nuclear fallout in the
islands rely on deposits of sediment from corals 20th century, climate fallout in the 21st.
and other marine organisms—often dumped The feeling of injustice is widespread on the
AREA
i
Buarik ENLARGED
nibai AUSTRALIA
A FRAGILE PARADISE Teari PACIFIC
Tarawa’s two slender OCEAN
chains of islets amount to abu
a scant 12 square miles of Nuat wangaroi
Teb Abaiang
Li
ai K
land area. Half of Kiribati’s Tarat Tarawa I
ne
R EQUATOR
106,000 citizens live on the Gilbert I
B
Is
southern islets, which are Islands A
lan
PA Phoenix T
connected by causeways. o C I Islands
Noot F I I
ds
okoro C
a 180° O C
1°30′N Ab
nanuka
E A N
Mare ibara
on
Tab 0 mi 600
North Tarawa
20°S
0 km 600
ba
P A C I F I C Kaina 160°W
na
O C E A N Nabei
euea
Tabit
Lago o n
tao
Aba
a
Buot
Tan Bike BONRIKI
Land g nib INTERNATIONAL
Red
Bea Tab inteb eu AIRPORT
Built-up area ch BETIO PORT Banr ori u
o A Te
Shallow reef Betio Ant aeab E i t b ar ( Te mwa
Deep reef ebu a A a ao ma iku
Nan ka m iku)
ika bo
0 mi 3 i
0 km 3 i South Tarawa
ri k
B ai
173°E
atolls most at risk from rising seas: Kiribati, of waves overtopping seawalls is greatest. Early
Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tokelau, and Tuva- this year a king tide lifted a shipwreck off the reef
lu. A former Tuvaluan prime minister, Saufatu at Betio, Tarawa’s westernmost islet, and flung it
Sopoaga, went so far as to compare the impacts ashore, piercing a seawall. There it has stayed. The
of climate change to “a slow and insidious form ship has an ironic name: Tekeraoi, “good luck.”
of terrorism against us.” There is a darker irony too. The shipwreck
Even so, some I-Kiribati reject the rhetoric came ashore on Red Beach, where a lower-
of victimhood and the implication that Pacific than-expected tide stranded American landing
nations are powerless. “We are not victims,” craft during the Battle of Tarawa in 1943, lead-
Toka Rakobu, who works for a Tarawa tourism ing to a bloodbath.
agency, told me. “We can do something. We are Stories of the Pacific’s climate woes have
not going to be a defeated people.” brought a flow of sympathy and aid money to
But can you blame politicians, including Kiribati and her island neighbors, but if you
Kiribati’s president, Anote Tong, for playing hear that message of environmental doom
the global underdog? Talk of drowning islands often enough, you might think you had no op-
and climate refugees has made Kiribati known tion but to leave. There is much talk now about
around the world. Photographers and journalists migration. Should we stay? Shall we go? Will we
have made their way to Tarawa to report from be forced to relocate? If so, where? No country
“the front line of the climate-change crisis.” is flinging open its doors to climate refugees.
Their visits tend to peak at the time of the king The questions are agonizing, not least because
tides, the highest tides of the year, when the drama they bear on a sense of identity. In the Kiribati
friends—Vasiti Tebamare and Tinaai Teaua, who “belly of the eel,” as I-Kiribati call the Milky Way.
run a health spa in the village of Temwaiku— I wished I could name the constellations as
suggested we take our meal to the airport run- the early navigators did, knowing them as in-
way. It is something of a tradition, on sultry timately as if they were family. They learned
nights too stifling even for a fan to relieve, for them by seeing the sky as the roof of a meeting-
families to spread their mats on the little-used house, divided into a grid by rafters and lines of
runway and eat a picnic supper. It’s always cool thatch. The stars rose in one quadrant, sailed
there, with a breeze off the ocean. across the roof, and set in another.
We took grilled fish, rice, and fried breadfruit Master navigators knew upwards of 150
chips to eat and moimoto—green coconuts—to stars. You could put them anywhere in the
drink. The airfield was twinkling with flashlights ocean, and they would know exactly where they
and bathed in the soft murmur of conversation. were. I-Kiribati might live on small islands, but
We found a quiet spot, ate, talked, then lay on our there is nothing small about their sense of their
backs and stared at the blazing night sky—the place in the world. j
New Zealand writer and editor What did you learn from described as “princes
Kennedy Warne has visited three the Kiribati people? in laughter and friend-
of the atoll nations in his Pacific What I wish I’d learned ship, poetry and love.”
backyard that are most at risk was the secret of their It’s true: Joy is their sixth
from rising sea levels: Tokelau, happiness. Kiribati sense, and it shows in
Tuvalu, and now Kiribati. people were once everything they do.
KENNEDY WARNE
k i r i b at i 135
HOW TO LIVE WITH IT
Who
Will
Thrive
?As the world warms, which
animals may suffer and which
may prosper isn’t clear-cut.
ARCTIC FOX
As tundra habitat melts, this snow-loving
fox will find fewer seal carcasses left on ice
by polar bears and fewer lemmings—food
for fox pups—whose numbers peak in the
coldest winters. It may also face competition
as the adaptable red fox expands north.
GREAT BEND BRIT SPAUGH ZOO, KANSAS
By Jennifer S. Holland
Photographs by Joel Sartore
Generalists that tolerate a range of climates. has created a lot of the excess carbon dioxide. “A
Those with diverse genes and speedy repro- massive restoration effort could actually remove
duction (which lets helpful traits enter the gene half a degree worth of potential climate change
pool fast). Those that can travel to a suitable new from the atmosphere before it happens.”
habitat—and that have somewhere to go. Com- Heading off more damage and caring for
petitive, often invasive species. Weeds. what’s left must be dual priorities. “The best we
Which do poorly? Specialists with narrow can do now,” says Watson, is to identify and pro-
climate needs. Those already battling for surviv- tect key populations, “then try to stop humanity
al. Small and fragmented populations, or those from getting in the way of their functioning.” j
hemmed in by unsupportive landscapes. Ani-
mals competing with humans. Groups lacking
Joel Sartore founded the National
genetic diversity. High-elevation species, island Geographic Photo Ark in an effort to
dwellers, and many coral-dependent animals. slow, or stop, the world’s extinction
Those needing ice to survive. crisis. Learn more about the project
We can’t stop this train. But we can slow its at natgeophotoark.org.
destructive run. Restoring landscapes should
be a big part of the game plan, says Lovejoy, who
adds that longtime degradation of ecosystems
BENGAL TIGER
Wild tigers are in drastic decline, with perhaps 3,000
left. Eventually they’ll need scuba gear to live in the
mangrove-dominated Sundarbans of Bangladesh. A
World Wildlife Fund–led study reports that a predicted
11-inch rise above sea levels from the year 2000 would
destroy most tiger habitat in that region. Better news in
Bhutan: As forests move upslope, tigers will likely shift
with them, heading deep into northern parklands along
major river valleys. Sadly, they would displace or prey
on already struggling snow leopards.
ALABAMA GULF COAST ZOO
New satellite and airborne sensors
won’t cure the Earth. But they
promise the clearest picture yet
of its various ailments.
146 NASA
T
By Peter Miller Atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration, June 7-23, 2015,
parts per million
he view out the window was scanner’s twin lasers pinged the trees, picking
bad enough. As his research plane flew over out individual branches from 7,000 feet up. Its
groves of California’s giant sequoias, some of twin imaging spectrometers, one built by NASA’s
the world’s tallest trees, Greg Asner could see Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), recorded hun-
the toll the state’s four-year drought had taken. dreds of wavelengths of reflected sunlight, from
“It looked wicked dry down there,” he said. But the visible to the infrared, revealing detailed
when he turned from the window to the video chemical signatures that identified each tree by
display in his flying lab, the view was even more species and even showed how much water it had
alarming. In places, the forest was bright red. “It absorbed—a key indicator of health. “It was like
was showing shocking levels of stress,” he said. getting a blood test of the whole forest,” Asner
The digital images were coming from a new said. The way he had chosen the display colors
3-D scanning system that Asner, an ecologist that day, trees starved of water were bright red.
with the Carnegie Institution for Science, had Disturbing as the images were, they repre-
just installed in his turboprop aircraft. The sented a powerful new way of looking at the
planet. “The system produces maps that tell us for doctors—giving them ever improving tools to
more about an ecosystem in a single airborne track Earth’s vital signs. In 2014 and early 2015
overpass,” Asner wrote later, “than what might NASA launched five major Earth-observing
be achieved in a lifetime of work on the ground.” missions (including two new instruments on
And his Carnegie Airborne Observatory is just the space station), bringing its total to 19. Space
the leading edge of a broader trend. agencies from Brazil, China, Europe, and else-
A half century after the first weather satellite where have joined in. “There’s no question we’re
sent back fuzzy pictures of clouds swirling over in a golden age for remote sensing,” said Michael
the North Atlantic, advanced sensors are doing Freilich, NASA’s earth science director.
for scientists what medical scanners have done The news from all these eyes in the sky, it has
SUN LAND
LAUNCH DATE 2003 2013
NAME SORCE LANDSAT 8
ALTITUDE 398 MILES 438 MILES
PRINCIPAL Tracks solar Monitors land use
FUNCTION radiation
2002
GRACE
217 MILES
Twin satellites
measure the gravity
field for groundwater
MULTIPLE and ice changes
TARGETS
2002 2015
AQUA SMAP
438 MILES 426 MILES
Measures land, Measures soil
ocean, and atmo- moisture
sphere interac-
tions (emphasis
on water cycle) ATMOSPHERE
1999 2014
TERRA GPM CORE
438 MILES 253 MILES
Measures land, Measures rain
ocean, and and snow
atmosphere interac-
tions (emphasis 2014
on land) OCO-2
438 MILES
Measures
OCEAN carbon dioxide
2008 2004
OSTM AURA
830 MILES 438 MILES
Measures sea- Measures the
level change ozone layer
to be said, is mostly not good. They bear witness running into rivers, being pumped from aqui-
to a world in the midst of rapid changes, from fers, or evaporating back into the atmosphere.
melting glaciers and shrinking rain forests to Researchers are using what they’ve learned to
rising seas and more. But at a time when human predict droughts, warn of floods, protect drink-
impacts on Earth are unprecedented, the lat- ing water, and improve crops.
est sensors offer an unprecedented possibility In California the water crisis has turned the
to monitor and understand the impacts—not a state into something of a laboratory for remote-
cure for what ails the planet, but at least a better sensing projects. For the past three years a
diagnosis. That in itself is a hopeful thing. NASA team led by Tom Painter has been flying
an instrument-packed aircraft over Yosemite
Water is Earth’s lifeblood, and for the first National Park to measure the snowpack that
time, high-flying sensors are giving scientists feeds the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, the primary
a way to follow it as it moves through every source of water for San Francisco.
stage of its natural cycle: falling as rain or snow, Until now, reservoir managers have estimated
MONICA SERRANO, NGM STAFF; TONY SCHICK. SOURCES: STEVEN E. PLATNICK AND CLAIRE L. PARKINSON, NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER
the amount of snow on surrounding peaks the water from wells to irrigate fields, causing water
old-fashioned way, using a few gauges and taking tables to fall. State officials normally monitor
surveys on foot. They fed these data into a statis- underground water supplies by lowering sen-
tical model that forecast spring runoff based on sors into wells. But a team of scientists led by
historical experience. But lately, so little snow Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at the University
had fallen in the Sierra Nevada that history of California, Irvine, and at JPL, has been work-
could offer no analogues. So Chris Graham, a ing with a pair of satellites called GRACE (for
water operations analyst at Hetch Hetchy, ac- Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) to
cepted the NASA scientists’ offer to measure the “weigh” California’s groundwater from space.
snowpack from the sky. The satellites do this by detecting how
Painter’s Twin Otter aircraft, called the Air-
borne Snow Observatory, was equipped with
a package of sensors similar to those in Greg
Asner’s plane: a scanning lidar to measure the
At a time when human
snow’s depth and an imaging spectrometer to impacts on the planet are
analyze its properties. Lidar works like radar unprecedented, technology
but with laser light, determining the plane’s dis-
tance to the snow from the time it takes the light
offers a chance to truly
to bounce back. By comparing snow-covered understand them.
terrain with the same topography scanned on
a snow-free summer day, Painter and his team
could repeatedly measure exactly how much changes in the pull of Earth’s gravity alter the
snow there was in the entire 460-square-mile height of the satellites and the distance between
watershed. Meanwhile the imaging spectrome- them. “Say we’re flying over the Central Valley,”
ter was revealing how big the snow grains were Famiglietti said, holding a cell phone in each
and how much dust was on the surface—both of hand and moving them overhead like one satel-
which affect how quickly the snow will melt in lite trailing the other. “There’s a certain amount
the spring sun and produce runoff. “That’s data of water down there, which is heavy, and it pulls
we’ve never had before,” Graham said. the first satellite away from the other.”
Painter also has been tracking shrinking The GRACE satellites can measure that to
snowpacks in the Rocky Mountains, which sup- within 1/25,000 of an inch. And a year later,
ply water to millions of people across the South- after farmers have pumped more water out of
west. Soon he plans to bring his technology to the ground, and the pull on the first satellite has
other mountainous regions around the world been ever so slightly diminished, the GRACE
where snow-fed water supplies are at risk, such satellites will be able to detect that change too.
as the Himalayan watersheds of the Indus and Depletion of the world’s aquifers, which
Ganges Rivers. “By the end of the decade, nearly supply at least one-third of humanity’s water,
two billion people will be affected by changes has become a serious danger, Famiglietti said.
in snowpacks,” he said. “It’s one of the biggest GRACE data show that more than half the
stories of climate change.” world’s largest aquifers are being drained fast-
er than they can refill, especially in the Arabian
With less water flowing into California’s Peninsula, India, Pakistan, and North Africa.
rivers and reservoirs, officials have cut back Since California’s drought began in 2011, the
on the amount of water supplied to the state’s state has been losing about four trillion gallons
farmers, who typically produce about half the a year (more than three and a half cubic miles)
fruits, nuts, and vegetables grown in the U.S. from the Sacramento and San Joaquin River
In response, growers have been pumping more Basins, Famiglietti said. That’s more than the
0 mi 0.25
0 km 0.25
WHAT THIS TELLS US The area in this image is actually covered with rain forest. PERU
Some lidar pulses penetrate the forest and reflect off the ground, revealing the subtle
Madre de
topography—red is a few feet higher than blue—and faint, abandoned river channels Dios River
that have shaped the forest and helped create its rich biodiversity. Tambopata
River
0 mi 25
0 km 25
WHAT THIS TELLS US After four years of drought, the snowpack in the Sierra NV
Nevada—a crucial water reservoir for California—is just 5 percent of the historical CA
average. Snow has virtually vanished from Nevada. And west of the Sierra, in the
Central Valley, much of the fertile farmland is fallow and brown. AREA
SHOWN
NASA (BOTH)
No one gets a better look at how we’ve transformed Earth—and conquered night—than astronauts on the
space station. The view here is to the north over Portugal and Spain. The green band is the aurora.
annual consumption of the state’s cities and Jerry Brown signed the state’s first law phasing
towns. About two-thirds of the lost water has in restrictions on groundwater removal.
come from aquifers in the Central Valley, where
pumping has caused another problem: Parts of As evidence has mounted about Earth’s
the valley are sinking. maladies—from rising temperatures and ocean
Tom Farr, a geologist at JPL, has been map- acidification to deforestation and extreme
ping this subsidence with radar data from a Ca- weather—NASA has given priority to missions
nadian satellite orbiting some 500 miles up. The aimed at coping with the impacts. One of its
technique he used, originally developed to study newest satellites, a $916 million observatory
earthquakes, can detect land deformations as called SMAP (for Soil Moisture Active Passive),
small as an inch or two. Farr’s maps have shown was launched in January. It was designed to
that in places, the Central Valley has been sink- measure soil moisture both by bouncing a radar
ing by around a foot a year. beam off the surface and by recording radiation
One of those places was a small dam near the emitted by the soil itself. In July the active ra-
city of Los Banos that diverts water to farms in dar stopped transmitting, but the passive radi-
the area. “We knew there was a problem with ometer is still doing its job. Its maps will help
the dam, because water was starting to flow up scientists forecast droughts, floods, crop yields,
over its sides,” said Cannon Michael, president and famines.
of Bowles Farming Company. “It wasn’t until we “If we’d had SMAP data in 2012, we easily
got the satellite data that we saw how huge the could have forecast the big Midwest drought
problem was.” Two sunken bowls had formed that took so many people by surprise,” said Na-
across a total of 3,600 square miles of farmland, rendra N. Das, a research scientist at JPL. Few
threatening dams, bridges, canals, pipelines, people expected the region to lose about $30
and floodways—millions of dollars’ worth of billion worth of crops that summer from a “flash
infrastructure. In late 2014 California governor drought”—a sudden heat wave combined with
PHOTO: NASA
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