8 IX September 2020

https://doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2020.31600
 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.429
Volume 8 Issue IX Sep 2020- Available at www.ijraset.com

Risk Management in Highway Construction using Fuzzy

Logic and ISO31000:2018
Abhishek Pathak1, Dr. Rajeev Kansal2
1
PG student, 2Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Madhav Institute of Technology and Science, Gwalior, (M.P.) India

Abstract. Highway construction projects play very important role in social, economic and cultural development of any country.
These projects undergo many risks during construction process, so it is required to manage these risks before starting any
highway construction. This research presents a complete framework for managing risks in highway construction projects using
Fuzzy Logic and ISO 31000:2018. During the last few decades, significant amount of attention has been given to manage the
risks in projects especially in highway construction projects. To date, many methodologies considering the risk occurrence, risk
consequences and risk detectability have been proposed in literature to quantify and manage the risks in highway construction
projects. On the other hand, as per ISO31000:2018 guidelines, risk vulnerability should also be the considered in risk
management process. Accordingly, in the present study, a fuzzy logic-based model is developed through MATLAB software to
quantify and rank the risk factors of highway construction projects. As fuzzy logic is used, proposed model has the potential to
handle uncertainties in all four risk parameters. In order to demonstrate the working of the proposed model, it is practically
applied to the three real case studies. Results of case studies provide the ranking of risk factors based on the calculated risk
index values. Furthermore, risk strategies and risk allocation plan is also prepared based on the highway projects’ experts.
Keywords: Highway construction projects, risk management, fuzzy logic, ISO 31000:2018.

I. INTRODUCTION
The unexpected events that affect the objectives of any process, product, program, operation, and project are called Risk events.
Risk management is increasingly relevant in any process, product, program, operation, and project in a changing environment with
time (Power, 2007). This shows that each firm needs to be ready to analyse unforeseen events before any project starts. In order to
manage the risks, companies are required to tackle the unforeseen events that could potentially affect the activities of the companies.
Identifying risk factors raises awareness about the risks associated with behaviours and increases knowledge about which risk
factors should be handled with priority (Mikes, 2011). Gordon et al.(2009) found that companies with higher standard of risk
analysis and management are more effective. The two approaches that can offer critical learning about risks are qualitative and
quantitative. Many development organizations combine the two approaches in order to define, analyse and present the threats they
can face (Baker et al., 1998). Assessment of risk variables is necessary in order to contrast risks and when calculated in terms of
money (Collier). Qualitative methods, similar to an investigation of the root cause, are ideal for determining explanations for risks.
The need for a plan to think about the risks depends on the situation being clear. Risk assessment in highway planning projects
includes outstanding risk-measuring devices (Taroun et al., 2011). The basic explanation for exceptional estimation apparatuses is
the uniqueness of any construction venture; for instance, only here and there are any verifiable details available.

II. STATEMENT OF PROBLEM AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

Risks in highway project construction are increasing its cost and completion time. Risks also affect the quality of highway
construction work, thus risks affecting the objectives and project success factors in the construction of highway projects. To save the
project from unnecessary cost and time overrun, the risks associated with the construction of highway projects need to be analysed.
In this research, we use ISO 31000:2018 for addressing the risk assessment.
This research focuses on the risk management in highway project construction with a focus on risk identification, risk assessment,
risk allocation and risk response. The following research objectives were targeted at achieving

A. Identification of risk events related to highway construction projects through literature review and discussion with experts in
highway construction.
B. Questionnaire survey to obtain information on the occurrence of risk, risk consequence on cost, time and quality of road
construction projects, risk detectability, risk vulnerability, risk allocation and risk responses.
C. To propose a fuzzy model using MATLAB Computer Software for Ranking of risks.
D. Identification of most important risk factors.

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 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.429
Volume 8 Issue IX Sep 2020- Available at www.ijraset.com

E. Allocation of risk to client or contractor or concessionaire or sharing among them.

F. Identification of Ranking of each risk. All the above target achieve with the help of ISO 31000:2018. That is Risk assessment is
taken with the help of ISO 31000:2018. Risk assessment is the overall process of Risk identification, Risk analysis and Risk
evaluation.
III. ISO 31000:2018
ISO 31000:2018 provides a set of principles, guidelines for the design, implementation of a risk management framework and
recommendations for the application of a risk management process. The risk management process as described in ISO 31000 can be
applied to any activity, including decision-making at all levels.
The difference between the terms risk management framework and risk management process is described by ISO as in the
following:
Risk management framework - set of components that provide the foundations and organizational arrangements for designing,
implementing, mentoring, reviewing and continually improving risk management throughout the organization.
Risk management process - systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the activities of
communication, consulting, establishing the context, and identifying, analyzing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk.
In other words, what ISO 31000 does is that it formalizes risk management practices, and this approach is intended to facilitate
broader adoption by companies who require an enterprise risk management standard that accommodates multiple ‘silo-centric’
management systems.
The scope of this approach to risk management is to enable all strategic, management and operational tasks of an organization
throughout projects, functions, and processes to be aligned to a common set of risk management objectives.
Accordingly, ISO 31000 is intended for a broad stakeholder group including:

A. Executive level stakeholders

B. Appointment holders in the enterprise risk management group
C. Risk analysts and management officers
D. Line managers and project managers
E. Compliance and internal auditors
F. Independent practitioners.
IV. FUZZY LOGIC
Fuzzy Logic Fuzzy logic had however been studied since the 1920s, as infinite valued logic notably by Lukasiewicz and Tarski.
After 45 years Lotfi Zadeh introduced the term fuzzy logic with 1965 proposal of fuzzy set theory.
Fuzzy logic is used in those research areas where one can’t conduct large number of experiment as done in probability theory to
construct PDF, NDF etc. Using fuzzy logic, assessments of the problem can be elicited from experts in the form of linguistic terms
such as “very low”, “low”, “medium”, “high”, “very high”.
Fuzzy logic has ability to assign membership values (x) expressing the degree (0 for fully unfit to fully fit 1) to which a certain
value of a variable fits a linguistic concept. Membership function defines how each point in the input space is mapped to degree of
membership.

V. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Traditionally risk was calculated on the basis of Risk Occurrence and Risk Consequence. However, as per ISO31000:2018
numerical Value of risk depend upon Risk Occurrence, Risk Consequence, Risk Detectability and Risk Vulnerability.
Risk Managements steps as per ISO31000:2018

A. Risk Identification
B. Risk Rating
C. Risk Evaluation
D. Risk Response and Allocation

Following linguistics variables were defined on the basis of perspective of project team.

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 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.429
Volume 8 Issue IX Sep 2020- Available at www.ijraset.com

Table: 1 Linguistic Definition of Risk Occurrence

Linguistic Term Risk Occurrence
Very High (VH) >70% chance. Risk event will surely occur.
High (H) 50 to 70% chance. Risk event is expected to occur.
Medium (M) 30 to 50% chance. Risk event may occur.
Low (L) 10 to 30% chance. Risk event is implausible to occur.
Very Low (VL) <10% chance. Risk event is highly implausible to occur.

Table: 2 Linguistic Definition of Risk Consequence

Linguistic term Risk Consequence
Very High (VH) Unexpected Increment in cost and duration of project
High (H) Expected increment in cost and duration of project
Medium (M) Moderately expected increment in cost and duration of project
Low (L) Highly expected increment in cost and duration of project
Very Low (VL) Very high expected increment in duration and cost of project

Table: 3 Linguistic Definition of Risk Detectability

Linguistic term Risk Detectability

Very High (VH) Project team is unable to identify risk event response strategy to detect risk event and
controlling its consequences.
High (H) Project team is able to identify risk event response strategy with little chance to detect risk
event and controlling its consequences.
Medium (M) Project team is able to identify risk event response strategy with medium chance to detect
risk event and controlling its consequences.
Low (L) Project team is able to identify risk event response strategy with big chance to detect risk
event and controlling its consequences.
Very Low (VL) Project team is able to identify risk event response strategy with very high chance to detect
risk event and controlling its consequences effectively.

Table: 4 Linguistic Definition of Risk Vulnerability

Linguistic term Risk Vulnerability
Very High (VH) Project team is unable to fulfill the loss due to risk
High (H) Project team may be unable to fulfill the loss due to risk
Medium (M) Project team is moderately unable to fulfill the loss due to risk
Low (L) Project team is able to fulfill the loss due to risk
Very Low (VL) Project team is Highly able to fulfill the loss due to risk

Table 5. Crisp Rating used in Questionnaire

Linguistic term Crisp Rating
Very Low (VL) 1
Low (L) 2
Medium (M) 3
High (H) 4
Very High (VH) 5

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 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.429
Volume 8 Issue IX Sep 2020- Available at www.ijraset.com

Total 55 risk factors is recognized through literature review and discussions with experts in highway construction. After the risk
factors were identified, a questionnaire form was prepared in the following format as given in Table: 6. It was determined to collect
information on the occurrence, consequences, detectability and vulnerability of highway construction risk factors.
Data collected on above questionnaire was taken as input for fuzzy MATLAB model and value of Risk Index was calculated by
using model presented in figure 1.

Table 6. Identified Risk Factors

Risk Risk Factor RO RC RD RV Risk Risk

No. Allocation Response
R1 Lack of experience of consultant, contractors or sub-
contractors
R2 Contractor Productivity Issues
R3 Insufficient availability of time to complete project
R4 Change in construction scope
R5 Change of owner of project
R6 Rework due to errors
R7 Incomplete or complexity in project team
R8 Non-reliability in construction work quality
R9 Design Errors and Omissions
R10 Uncertainty in horizontal and vertical alignment
R11 Uncertainty in access requirement
R12 Issues related to obtaining railway and government
Permit
R13 Change in rules, regulations and policies of government
R14 Bribe
R15 Expropriations Risk
R16 Encroachment Risk
R17 Obsolete technology
R18 Inappropriate construction methods
R19 Delay in preparation of submittals
R20 Delay in approval of submittals
R21 Insufficient availability of lands
R22 Uncertainty in Land acquisition cost and schedule
R23 Natural Obstructions i.e. hill, river, trees etc.
R24 Uncertainty in landscaping activities
R25 Utilities not allocated on times
R26 Lack of availability of utilities
R27 Uncertainty in price of utilities
R28 Unskilled members in organization
R29 Labour dispute and strike
R30 Conflict between project related parties
R31 Reputations of organization in market
R32 Labour productivity issues
R33 Poor communication and coordination between project team
R34 Bankruptcy risk
R35 Lack of resources

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R36 Fluctuation in prices of material and equipments

R37 Quality issues of materials and equipments
R38 Unanticipated damage during construction
R39 Failure, damage, fire or theft of material and equipment
R40 Safety issues i.e. labour injuries
R41 Poor soil conditions
R42 Chance of rise in G.W.T
R43 Unforeseen climate conditions on site location
R44 Poor drainage facilities on site location
R45 Existing traffic
R46 Force Majeure
R47 Poor site management
R48 Heritage Issues
R49 Insufficient availability of fund/money
R50 Taxes issues
R51 Conflict in contract document
R52 Delay in payment
R53 Inflation Rate
R54 Environment Impact Assessment Required
R55 Adverse weather Conditions

Figure 1. Input-Output model for RI calculation

1) Sample Fuzzy Rules: These rules are generated after a deep discussion with Highway Construction Experts.
If RO is L and RC is H then RI is H.

RI RC
VL L M H VH
VL VL VL L M H
RO L VL L M H H
M L M M H H
H M M H VH VH
VH M M H VH VH

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ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.429
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Fig. 2 Fuzzy MATLAB model for Risk Index Calculation

Fig. 3 Fuzzy Rule Base

Table 2. Risk Management table

Risk No. Rank Risk Response Strategy Risk Allocation
R1 43 Mitigate by mentioning minimum experience requirement in NIT form Client
R2 27 Mitigate by making better communication and coordination b/w project team, Training of Workers & Contractor
Safety Programs
R3 40 Mitigate by 24 hours working through regulating manpower and equipments and machineries Share
R4 23 Accept the risk or Mitigate by understanding the Project`s vision, l clear estimation & Formalizing the Client
construction project plan
R5 53 Mitigate by legal document Client/Beneficiary
R6 11 Mitigate by hiring skilled employees and training them Contractor
R7 36 Mitigate and transfer by hiring reputed & experienced consultancy firm Contractor
R8 52 Mitigate by conducting proper site investigation and forecasting accurate traffic load or reviewing the Client
design, Transferring to design team
R9 42 Mitigate by hiring experienced and professional design team or Transferring to design team Client
R10 35 Avoid by proper planning of highway construction route Client
R11 13 Avoid by making the highway accessible by connecting it to required places Client
R12 26 Avoid by negotiating the permit holder regularly to reach a final solution within time limit. Client
R13 30 Accept the risk Share
R14 28 Accept the risk Contractor
R15 49 Mitigate by keeping alternate solution Contractor

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R16 46 Accept the risk Client

R17 37 Avoid by keeping eyes on new upcoming technologies and updating the firm through new technologies Contractor/
Consultant
R18 20 Avoid by keeping eyes on new upcoming pavement construction methods, pavement materials Contractor/
Consultant
R19 47 Mitigate by selecting alternate location for keeping work in progress and putting penalties on approval Contractor
team
R20 38 Avoid by taking approval before starting work or mitigate by selecting alternate location for keeping Client
work in progress
R21 3 Avoid by negotiating the land owner regularly to reach a final solution in time limit. Client
R22 6 Avoid by preparing good Compensation plan to attract land owner. Client
R23 9 Avoid by getting permit to remove obstructions from concerned department or change the alignment of Client
road
R24 45 Avoid by surveying requirement of landscaping activities before starting highway construction work Contractor/
Client
R25 55 Mitigate by deciding minimum utilities requirement per day and advance booking of utilities Contractor
R26 39 Accept the risk Contractor
51 Avoid by recruiting experienced members in organization Contractor
R27
R28 14 Avoid or mitigate by providing, required facilities & good wages to labour, bonus & incentives etc. Contractor
R29 34 Avoid by preparing legal documents or Mitigate by following arbitration process Share
R30 31 Avoid by hiring skilled labour and training the labour and Mitigate by running motivational programs and Contractor
bonus Scheme
R31 44 Mitigate by conducting regular project execution meeting to enhance flow of information Contractor
R32 25 Avoid by reducing and accurate estimation of cost of construction & optimizing the revenue Client
R33 2 Mitigate by proper procurement of resources after doing resources scheduling, updating & allocation Contractor
R34 22 Avoid by claiming for compensation to client for price Increase Contractor
R35 54 Avoid by following minimum wages act and launching bonus and incentives scheme, attracting and Contractor
fixing wages increment interval and rate
R36 32 Avoid by testing of materials and equipment before put in use or Transfer to material and equipment Contractor
supplier
R37 10 Mitigate by working carefully under supervision of experienced consultancy Contractor/
Consultant
R38 5 Avoid by hiring reputed security agencies, maintainer of equipments and machineries Contractor
R39 16 Mitigate by provision of safety measure, regular safety inspection and appointing safety officers and Contractor
safety Assistants
R40 12 Avoid by improving engineering properties of soil by Stabilizing Client/ Contractor
R41 19 Mitigate by sealing subsoil, providing underground drainage facilities Client/ Contractor
R42 1 Accept the risk Contractor
R43 24 Mitigate by constructing side drain along the road and provide some required slope to drain water Contractor
R44 18 Accept the risk Share
R45 33 Mitigate by appointing experienced site manager and assistants and prepare the effective site execution Contractor
schedule
R46 50 Avoid by diverting the alignment of highway Client
R47 29 Avoid by selecting alternate minerals of similar properties Contractor
R48 7 Avoid by loan or selecting most suitable financial resource Client
R49 21 Mitigate by adding all contingencies in contract documents and completing work within time and cost Share
limit
R50 41 Mitigate by hiring reliable and popular third party Contractor
R51 17 Accept the risk or mitigate by establishing clear time cash flow program Contractor
/Client
R52 48 Accept the risk or mitigate by limiting construction scope and buying some Treasury Inflation Protected Contractor
Securities
R53 15 Mitigate by hiring of a EIA team, Placing of pollution control device(chimney, stakes, pollution units) on Share
site and plant, using higher Bharat Stage equipments
R54 8 Transfer by Insurances and Client should allow EOT to Contractor, and Contractor should restart work Client/Contractor
R55 4 Accept the risk and Transferring by Insurances and Client should allow EOT to Contractor, and Client/Contractor
Contractor should restart work immediately

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 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
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VI. CONCLUSION
Risk management process in construction projects is usually applied in planning phase of project. However, at times, project team
wishes to apply the risk management process through the execution phase of project. Accordingly, this study provide a complete
framework to evaluate, response and allocate the risk in every phase including the execution of highway construction projects. For
this purpose, a fuzzy MATLAB based model is developed to evaluate the risk. In developed model, risk index-1 (RI-1) is calculated
by taking the risk occurrence (RO) and risk consequences (RC) as input, whereas the risk index-2 (RI-2) is calculated by taking the
risk detectability (RD) and risk vulnerability (RV). Then, finally, the risk index (RI) is calculated by taking RI-1 and RI-2 as input.
Subsequently, ranking of risk factors is done on the basis of calculated values of RI, RI-1 and RI-2. Risk response and risk
allocation strategies are finalized on the basis of suggestions given by project teams.
In order to demonstrate the validity and applicability of proposed model, it is applied to three real case study project. Input data for
proposed model is acquired from respective project team, then, ranking of risk factors is done using fuzzy-MATLAB model. Results
of case studies illustrate the following potentials of developed model:

A. Identified risk factors are sufficient to be consider in the risk management process of highway construction projects.
B. Proposed fuzzy-MATLAB model is able to handle the uncertainties involved in quantitative analysis of risk factors.
C. Risk response strategies are sufficient to treat the risks associated to highway construction projects.
D. Developed risk allocation plan is appropriate to manage the responsibilities to treat the risks in highway construction projects.
E. Finally, to maximize the profit in construction projects, the proposed model will be beneficial in todays’ competitive situation
market of construction market.

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