A Method For Impact Analysis of Cyclic Changes Within Innovation Processes of Pss
A Method For Impact Analysis of Cyclic Changes Within Innovation Processes of Pss
A Method For Impact Analysis of Cyclic Changes Within Innovation Processes of Pss
com
ScienceDirect
Procedia CIRP 16 (2014) 205 – 210
Product Services Systems and Value Creation. Proceedings of the 6th CIRP Conference on Industrial
Product-Service Systems
Abstract
Innovation processes are subject to various internal and external cycles. Changes of the environment of the system from a
business perspective such as the readiness of new technologies or shifting requirements due to changing customer demands, or
other cycles can affect the system as they significantly influence its innovation process. Especially companies providing PSS are
affected by these cycles because physical product and service aspects as well as a high number of stakeholders have to be
integrated during the design and development phase. While in conventional development processes dynamics caused by the
occurrence of cycles already play a major role, the influence of dynamic aspects in the development of PSS is further enhanced.
In particular, the high degree of crosslinking between the different phases of the innovation process leads to highly dynamic
responses within the innovation process. A lack of knowledge and the challenging handling of these cycles and their
dependencies and effects lead to challenges. In highly dynamic systems, the classical approaches of process modelling often
reach their limits, as the depicted elements and relations are usually assumed to be static. Consequently, it is hard to predict the
dynamic impact of cyclic changes on the innovation process of PSS. There are approaches to model the dynamics of systems
such as System Dynamics, agent-based modelling or discrete event simulation. Especially System Dynamics is used throughout
the public and private sector for policy analysis and design. It is a method to analyse and simulate the dynamic behaviour of
systems on a high level of abstraction. Therefore, within this paper, a System Dynamics based impact analysis of cyclic changes
within innovation processes of PSS is suggested. We provide background information on the innovation process of PSS, how
they are challenged by cycles and how this approach can be used for modelling innovation processes and on the influence of
cycles on these processes. An exemplary case study is presented to show the application of our approach on an innovation
process of a PSS.
© 2014
© 2014 The Authors.
Elsevier B.V.Published
This is anbyopen
Elsevier B.V.
access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the International Scientific Committee of “The 6th CIRP Conference on Industrial Product-
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
Service Systems”
Selection in the person
and peer-review of the
under Conference of
responsibility Chair
the Professor HodaScientifi
International ElMaraghy.
c Committee of “The 6th CIRP Conference on Industrial
Product-Service Systems” in the person of the Conference Chair Professor Hoda ElMaraghy”
Keywords: product-service system; system dynamics; innovation process; impact analysis; cycle
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 89 289 15140; fax: +49 89 289 15144.
E-mail address: [email protected]
2212-8271 © 2014 Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the International Scientific Committee of “The 6th CIRP Conference on Industrial
Product-Service Systems” in the person of the Conference Chair Professor Hoda ElMaraghy”
doi:10.1016/j.procir.2014.02.008
206 Daniel Kasperek et al. / Procedia CIRP 16 (2014) 205 – 210
deviation of the actual state from the nominal state of an models. These models allow for a flexible illustration of
object. complex scenarios, like modelling different influencing
This repetition requires a specific time and causes individual factors that occur at the same time during the engineering
effects, which may lead to yet another cycle [2,6]. The terms design process activity. Thereby, the results of the simulation
of the Fig. are explained below (cp. [6]): are generated patterns over-time. [18]
Within SD models, decisions can be devised and tested in a
safe environment. Thus, they work as experimental
management laboratories. Their feedback perspective and
“what-if” capability enables systematic problems to be
Repetition identified, understood and managed. [18]
Le [19] gives an overview about SD models in product
development to illustrate the iterative nature of these
processes. As innovation processes include development
processes the overview can be also applied on innovation
Trigger Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase n Effects processes. There already exist a couple of System Dynamics
models to display iterations in development processes. Mainly
they are based on a generic structure that models flows of
Duration
activities between stocks that represent the current state of
execution. The main component of System Dynamics models
Fig. 3. Scheme of a cycle [1] in iterative processes is the rework cycle, first mentioned by
[20]. Later authors have developed variants of the rework
x Trigger: intentional or unintentional event(s) that cycle, such as [21]. In Fig. 4, an adapted single phase version
initiate(s) an iteration of a cycle
of the rework cycle is shown.
x Repetition: cycles represent iterative, reoccurring The rework cycle operates as follows: The variable
patterns definition A defines the initial value of Work Remaining A.
x Phase: a cycle may be divided into several more or The work tasks then flow as a parallel flow of work with
less distinctive phases errors (amount defined by work quality A) accumulating into
Undiscovered Rework A. Only if these errors are detected,
x Effect: cycles have one or multiple effects rework will be necessary. The work that has to be reworked is
x Duration: needed time for one iteration of a cycle described by the rework discovery A rate which processes the
work to the Work Remaining A stock. and a flow back from
2.3. System Dynamics modelling Work Accomplished A into Work Remaining A. An additional
feedback is implemented from Work Accomplished A to Work
The System Dynamics methodology is a mathematical Remaining A. The feedback is controlled by the corrupt A rate
modelling technique to study the dynamic behavior of which is triggered by external events. The modelling construct
systems utilizing a visual modelling and simulation technique with these two feedback loops allows to differentiate between
[7,8,9]. Forrester [10] developed System Dynamics (SD) in internal rework within the phase (controlled by rework
the late 50s. Currently it is used throughout the public and discovery A), such as conventional iterations during the design
private sector for policy analysis and design. An overview of phase, and rework due to external events, such as the
the SD methodology can be found in [11]. Next to SD, there occurrence of cyclic impacts. The rework cycle finishes if the
are various other methods for analyzing and simulating amount of accomplished work is equal to the sum of initial
dynamic systems, such as agent-based modelling [7,12,13] work to do and externally triggered work.
and discrete event modelling [13,14]. While discrete event
modelling is more suitable for simulations at the operational
level, SD is especially suitable for simulation at high levels of
abstraction and agent-based modelling can be used at all
levels of abstraction [13,15]. Due to the interdisciplinary
approach of SD [7], it is an adequate simulation method for
modelling and simulating models which are positioned at the
strategic level. [9,16]
SD is based on the simple graphical notations of causal
loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams to model systems
[9]. The first step of the SD modelling process is the
development of qualitative influence models. As the
qualitative model is based on a graph notation of edges and
nodes it can theoretically be derived from models in other
notations that base on the same concept, such as graph or
dependency models [17]. The step of quantitative modelling is Fig. 4. Adapted single phase version of the rework cycle
then followed by the development of quantitative simulation
208 Daniel Kasperek et al. / Procedia CIRP 16 (2014) 205 – 210
3. The System Dynamics PSS model with start of previous tasks)” to model all possible degrees of
parallelism.
Fig. 5 illustrates the System Dynamics model of the The model as illustrated in Fig. 5 is a base model for
innovation process of product-service systems as suggested by innovation processes of PSS which can be further customized
the authors. Seven rework cycles are used to model the seven for each application. The base model does not include
phases of innovation processes as proposed by [2]: Demand, problem specific factors such as the motivation or workload
analysis, idea generation, design, production, introduction and of the involved persons. Depending on the model purpose,
utilization. The strength of the rework cycle construct is to such factors can play an important role and might also need to
illustrate the iterative nature of the innovation process and its be included in the model depending on the particular
phases. It is used as it is not only capable to illustrate the application. For these cases the model presented here can be
inherent iterations of the different phases but also to illustrate used as a base model.
the rework originating from the cyclic impacts to be modeled.
As the degree of iterations to be expected differs for the 4. Impact analysis of cyclic changes
different phases of the innovation process, the rework cycles
for the particular phases can be customized to the average The System Dynamics model presented in Fig. 5 is used
amount of rework necessary for the particular phase. While for the impact analysis of cyclic changes. Cyclic changes can
especially the phases of idea generation and design usually are theoretically be triggered at any point of time by an initiating
subject to a high amount of iterations, phases such as demand event. Depending on the current phase of the innovation
or production are usually not subject to much iteration. process of the PSS the occurring cycle can have different
Nevertheless cyclic changes can cause iterations in every effects respectively impact on the system. For example a
phase and therefore each phase is modeled by the composite cycle of technology change that occurs before the design and
construct of a rework cycle. especially the production phases start will probably have less
impact on the innovation process as if the technology change
cycle occurs after the production phase has started. The
reason is that the effects of the cycle can be incorporated in
the initial design of the PSS production if the technology
change occurs prior to the design of production. If the
innovation process is in post-production (respectively
production design) phases, the new technology that needs to
be incorporated in the PSS production will cause a feedback
of the innovation process to the design (of production) phase.
5. Evaluation of applicability
Fig. 7 provides a zoom in the particular area of the System It can be seen that if the cycle occurs before the production
Dynamics model where the cyclic impact is realized. phase, as well as if the cycle occurs while the production
For the example, each of the seven innovation process phase, the overall duration of the phase is smaller than if the
phases is assumed with equal duration if no cyclic impacts cycle of technology change occurs after the actual end of the
occur. The technology change cycle is implemented as a step production phase. This can be explained by the additional
function that adds additional work-to-do to the remaining rework that is necessary to change the PSS after the
work in this phase. For the cycle of technology change four production is finished. The fact that the production phase
different scenarios are examined: finishes at the same time – whether the cycle occurs in front
x The cycle does occur prior to the production phase start or within the affected phase – can be explained by the
x The cycle occurs while the production phase is running modelling assumption that it is not differentiated at what point
x The cycle occurs after the production phase is finished of time within the particular phase the impact occurs. For
x The cycle does not occur instance, it is assumed that the amount of additional rework is
the same whether the impact occurs before, at the beginning,
or at the end of the production phase as long as it occurs
before the phase is finished.
6. Discussion
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