UNFCCC Climate Kiosk at CoP9, 11 December 2003

CLIMATE CHANGE
An introduction
Geoff Jenkins, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK

• Introduction: the greenhouse effect and climate modelling

• How has climate changed, and is Man responsible?
• How will climate & sea level change in the future?
• Certainties, uncertainties and probabilities

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
..most escapes to outer space
and cools the earth...

SUN
…but some IR is
trapped by some
gases in the air,
thus reducing the
cooling.
Sunlight
passes
through the
atmosphere..

..and warms the earth. Infra-red radiation

is given off by the earth...

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 HOW QUICKLY THE CLIMATE WILL
CHANGE IN FUTURE DEPENDS ON:
• How much greenhouse gas emissions grow
–this depends on population growth, energy use,
new technologies, etc

• How sensitive the climate system is to emissions

–how clouds, ice, oceans etc respond to the extra
heating; we build a mathematical model of the
earth’s climate system to calculate this

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

GJJ1999

PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenarios from
EMISSIONS population, energy,
economics models
CONCENTRATIONS Carbon cycle and
CO2, methane, etc. chemistry models

feedbacks
HEATING EFFECT
‘Climate Forcing’. Gas properties

CLIMATE CHANGE Coupled climate

Temp, rain, sea-level, etc. models

IMPACTS Impacts models

Flooding, food supply, etc.

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

GJJ1999

THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

ATMOSPHERE

Terrestrial
radiation
Clouds
Greenhouse gases and aerosol
Solar
radiation
Ice- sheets Precipitation
snow Sea-ice

Biomass OCEAN
LAND

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
1861-2002

2003 to September in green 1.5°F

1.0°F

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER LAND 1861-2002
2003 to September in green 2.0°F

1.0°F

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Temperature change, °C
TROPOSPHERIC
AND
STRATOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES
1958-2002
Temperature change, °C

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 Possible causes of recent climate change
• Natural internal climate variability (“chaos”)
• Natural factors that force change
– orbit of the earth around the sun
– energy output of the sun
– volcanic particles in the stratosphere (“dust”)
• Man-made factors that force change
– greenhouse gases (CO2, methane….)
– small particles (cooling effect of sulphates, etc)

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 OBSERVED AND SIMULATED CHANGE
calculated using only natural factors
1.0
Temperature change ºC

observed
model simulation

0.5

0.0

-0.5
1850 1900 1950 2000
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
 MAN-MADE CO2 EMISSIONS

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
has risen by over 30% due to human activities

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 Observed and simulated climate change
from natural AND Man-made factors
Temperature change ºC 1.0
observed
model simulation

0.5

0.0

-0.5
1850 1900 1950 2000

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 MAN-MADE CO2 EMISSIONS (Gt/yr)
IN THE IPCC SRES SCENARIOS

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE
from 5 IPCC SRES emissions scenarios
9°F

4°F

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE OVER LAND
from 5 IPCC SRES emissions scenarios
12°F
A1FI emissions
A2
A1B
Temperature rise, degrees C

B2
B1

6°F

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

N HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE 1000 - 2100
Temperature rise (degrees C)
Proxy-observations
Weather stations
Predictions (high emissions)
Predictions (low emissions)

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

PATTERN OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES
2080s relative to present day
High emissions scenario

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

PATTERN OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES
2080s relative to present day
High emissions scenario

–3 –2 –1 –0.5 –0.25 0 0.25 0.5 1 2 3 mm/day

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 Extent of arctic summer sea-ice

High emissions

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE
Sea-level rise (m) 0.5
A1FI
A2
B1
0.4
B2

0.3 Thermal expansion

+ glacier melt
+ Greenland
+ Antarctica
0.2 (land movement
not included)

0.1

1990 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research HadCM3

 GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE
from all emissions and models
Highest emissions scenario
Most extreme climate model 90cm

Lowest emissions scenario

Least extreme climate model

10cm

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 SEA LEVEL RISE COMMITTMENT
Sea-level rise (m) 0.8

0.6

0.4
Climate No climate
Change change

0.2

HadCM2 GHG
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
years

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

• “The ultimate objective of this Convention

is…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous interference with the climate system…”
• Research currently underway to decide what
concentration constitutes a “dangerous level”
• Negotiations would then have to agree the
common but differentiated contributions to
achieving this stabilisation level, and by when.

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

EMISSIONS AND CONCENTRATIONS OF CO2
from unmitigated emissions and possible emission
pathways to stabilisation at 550ppm and 750ppm
20 1000
Anthropogenic COemissions (GtC/yr)

950
900

CO2 concentration (ppm)

15 850
800
750
700
10
2

650
600
550
5
500
450
400
0 350
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350

Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RISE
from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios

Global temperature change (°C)

4

1900 2000 2100 2200

Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 AREA OF VEGETATION DIEBACK

Area of vegetation dieback (million km2)

5

4
With
CEH
3 Edinburgh

0
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 ANNUAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE FLOODED
with no climate change and under three emissions scenarios
100
People flooded (millions/year)

80

60

40

20

With
0 Univ
2020s 2050s 2080s Middlesex
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation No climate change

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 Certainties, uncertainties, probabilities
• The natural greenhouse effect already warms us by 30°C
• Man’s activities increased CO2 & other greenhouse gases
• More greenhouse gases will warm us further
• The earth has warmed by about 0.7°C over last 100y

• Most of the last 50y warming is likely due to Man’s activities

• Global warming by 2100 is projected to be 1.4 – 5.8°C
• Uncertainties at local scale are greater
• Probabilistic predictions will replace the current range of
deterministic predictions

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 SUMMER
TEMPERATURE
RISE
OVER ITALY
by 2080s due to
SRES A2
emissions
PREDICTED
BY NINE
CLIMATE
MODELS

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7°C
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
 PROBABILITY OF
CHANGE IN
SUMMER DAILY
MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE
IN MILAN

by the 2080s
under SRES A2

Dave Sexton
Change in summer Tmax, °C 53-member
HadSM3

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

 SUMMARY
• Warming of 1°C over land since C19; 2002 ranked #3

• Likely that most of the recent warming is Man-made

• Predictions of global warming 1.4 – 5.8°C by 2100

• Uncertainty mainly due to understanding & modelling

• Probabilistic predictions are required for adaptation;

work in hand

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research