Climate Change
Climate Change
Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
An introduction
Geoff Jenkins, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK
SUN
…but some IR is
trapped by some
gases in the air,
thus reducing the
cooling.
Sunlight
passes
through the
atmosphere..
feedbacks
HEATING EFFECT
‘Climate Forcing’. Gas properties
Terrestrial
radiation
Clouds
Greenhouse gases and aerosol
Solar
radiation
Ice- sheets Precipitation
snow Sea-ice
Biomass OCEAN
LAND
1.0°F
1.0°F
observed
model simulation
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1850 1900 1950 2000
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
MAN-MADE CO2 EMISSIONS
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1850 1900 1950 2000
4°F
B2
B1
6°F
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
High emissions
0.1
10cm
0.6
0.4
Climate No climate
Change change
0.2
HadCM2 GHG
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
years
950
900
650
600
550
5
500
450
400
0 350
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350
4
With
CEH
3 Edinburgh
0
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
80
60
40
20
With
0 Univ
2020s 2050s 2080s Middlesex
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation No climate change
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7°C
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
PROBABILITY OF
CHANGE IN
SUMMER DAILY
MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE
IN MILAN
by the 2080s
under SRES A2
Dave Sexton
Change in summer Tmax, °C 53-member
HadSM3