Second Half Trading Final

Background
Using our extensive database of football data and trading signals we
have recently been conducting analysis on the performance of teams in the
second of half of matches when the game is nil nil (0-0) at half time.

To conduct this analysis we segmented every match in our database
where the score half time was 0-0. This gave us 1,000’s upon 1,000’s of
games to potentially analysis. These games were taken from more than 50
leagues and competitions spread across all of the major leagues globally.

We then took a further subset of those games – a little over 4,000 – to
make it manageable and allow us to conduct our analysis.

Once comfortable with our findings these 4,000 games were modelled
using a Monte Carlo tool to randomise the data using 10,000 of thousands of
iterations.

What proceeds over the next few pages is robust findings and what we
believe is a solid and profitable second half trading strategy.

Copyright © 2019 footballadvisor.net | 28 Ventures LLC. All rights reserved 1
Base Line

First we took the outcome of all games in our subset that were 0-0 at
half time, using no additional filters and looked at the number of second half
goals and the final result to create our base line.

We found that;
● 75-76% of games would go on to have at least 1 goal
● 43% of games would go on to have at least 2 goals
● 18% of games would go on to have at least 3 goals

This was to be expected and fit into the generally known averages of
second half goals.

We then took this data and turned the strike rates into implied odds to
demonstrate the base line odds needed to break-even over a long enough
period of time if matching the averages.

In other words, this gives us the benchmarks we need to know if a
model or strategy can perform above the base line with a higher strike rate
and improved odds.

Base Line: Second Half Goals when scores is 0-0 at Half Time

Analysis

With the base line arranged, we then looked at a variety of in-play
factors to determine the optimal indicators for second half goals.

These include Shots (shts), Shots on Target (SoT), Corners (Cnr),
Bookings and Possession, among others.

The factors that created the most interesting trend lines were, perhaps
unsurprisingly, Shots on Target and Corners.

We discarded Corners as although these can be an indicator of

attacking play and approaching goals, in isolation they stick pretty closely the
mean baseline.
With this mind, we focused our attentions on Shots on Target, namely

games with either zero shots on target or those with 5+ at half time.
In those games, we are getting between 3 and 12 percentage points

increase in the likelihood of goals, which is a fantastic margin for us to play
with.


Lets look at that in a little more detail
The odds available for each of the goal markets available at half time
can vary quite a bt for a variety of factors, usually the match odds at the
beginning of the game and particularly when there is a strong favourite.
That said, we can take a pretty reliable rule of thumb that the odds will
usually be in these ranges:
0.5 goals = 1.40 – 1.55
1.5 goals = 2.90 – 3.20
2.5 goals = 5.00 – 10.00
So already we can see, simply based on the Live Odds, we can see
that we are obtaining clear value against the True Odds based on our analysis
above.
If you can get 1.50 on a 1.20 shot – then you are clearly getting
monster value.
Of you are getting 9.00 on something that should be 5.00 – again, huge
value is there for the taking.
A few more specific observations;

Zero Shots on Target
Understandably, this has the lowest chance of 1 goal in our shortlist.

However, it easily has the highest chance of 2+ goals and is comparable with
the high shots games for 2.5+ goals.
In this instance, I would be looking to trade either 1.5 or 2.5 goals. You
may lose slightly more than the other variables, but the payouts should be
high and will more than compensate.
Shots on Target 5-7+
The smallest subset is 7+ on target without goals so as attractive as it

is, we’d be limiting ourselves too much by only focusing on that – simply,
we’d be leaving money on the table.
We advise to identify games where there have been five (5) shots on
target by half time, with no goals scored.
You can either simply bet on over 0.5 goals or, as I prefer to do, is
trade the bigger goal markets.

Timings

One quick note on timings and when to get involved.
For zero shots on target, we obviously need to wait until half time
before confirming the opportunity.
However, with the 5+ shots – we can actually get in earlier if we so

wish.
For example, if the first half has reached the final 10 minutes and Shots
on Target are 5 and there are still no goals. It can be pretty safe to make the
following assumption.
No goals – it qualify as a second half trade for us
A goal is scored
So we can get in earlier because it will be a viable trade or a goal will

be scored – either way that’s what we want.
In this instance, you may look to do a small stakes bet on First Half 0.5
goals or a lay of half time 0-0, which will be odds on by this point.

Staking

We have three options on how we take advantage of these profitable
opportunities.

1. Straight bet

If a game qualifies then you can simply place a bet on Over 0.5 goals
and let it run. You will win, on average, 80%+ of the time.

You can of course, bet on over 1.5 or over 2.5 – both offer clear value.
This will just reduce your strike rate and increase losing runs but will still
clearly be profitable.

2. Straight Trade

Choose your entry point – over 1.5 or over 2.5 goals

Or you can split your stakes across both.

Then when the first goal is scored either trade out for a equal profit or
trade out your liability and hope for another goal or two to give you a bigger
return.

You’ll see on my examples later in this guide how I decide this based
on the game metrics.

3. Split stake trade

Similar to option 2, but we split our stake by 4 and we place the first
stake at half time. The second after 55 minutes, the third around 65-70
minutes, and the final part at 80 minutes, if the game remains 0-0 at this
point.

If you get a later goal then the payouts can be higher but depending on
when the goal is scored, you may not be able to trade out – particularly, on
the over 2.5 goals market.

An alternative to this is to look to trade the Over 1.5 market with 50% of
your stake (Half time and 55 minutes) and at that point, switch the second
50% to the over 0.5 goals market, which should allow you to get scratch with
just one goal.

Staking

This was an easy one as I was watching the game and it looked very
unlikely to be 0-0 at half time, let alone full time.

So I went in on three markets – first half 0.5, over 1.5 and 2.5

The first goal came soon after and I trade out my position on the 1.5
and 2.5 markets and watched the second half relaxed as the goals rolled in.


Quickly after that I spotted a second opportunity in China where
Jiangsu were strong favourites.

There had been plenty of shots on target at this point but also a red
card.

Copyright © 2019 footballadvisor.net | 28 Ventures LLC. All rights reserved
10

With the red card in mind, I played it a little more cautious and avoided
the first half market and went straight in on over 1.5 and over 2.5.

The goal came early in the second half and I decided to green-up at
this point, which I believe was the right move. There did end up being a
second goal but that was not until injury time.

As you can see, more stress free profits.

11

12
How to find the trades
This is not a high volume trading scenario as many games will not
qualify but there are still around 100-150 opportunities each month, on
average, where these scenarios apply.

It would be impossible to catch all of these because the games could
be taking place at any time, all around the globe.

Don’t worry about those games or ones you missed. If you are not
awake or not able to trade then they were never an opportunity in the first
place.

But if you can catch say 10 of these a month and win 7,8,9 of those
then you’ll be making a very nice side profit.

I’ll show you now a useful way to manage this process with very little
effort on your part – it just requires a little bit organisation to make it work.

Step 1 – Install SofaScores App on your phone

Step 2 – Go to the app and select Matches

Step 3 – Click on Live

13
This will then give you a list of all the games that are currently in-play.
You can quickly scroll through this list and add any games that may be of
interest to your Favourites.

At the bottom of that list, you’ll see an option to display ‘Upcoming
Games’

Step 4 – Click on Upcoming Games

Step 5 – Repeat Step 3 and add any potential games to your
favourites. I usually look about six hours ahead

Once you have done this, you can simply use their notifications feature
to monitor the games easily without interrupting whatever it is you are doing.

If a fist half goals is scored, I’ll wait a couple of minutes (Thank you
VAR) to make sure it counts. If so, I remove it from favourites. This keeps this
lists manageable and notifications at an acceptable level.

If a match reaches half time or is approaching half time, I’ll check the
first half stats and if it qualifies then away we go. If it reaches half time and
does not qualify, it is again removed and forgotten about.

(Side tip – if when you check the game and you see now in-play stats,
remove the game as well).

14
And that’s it – I found doing it this way, I can go about my daily
business and still catch most games without really any hard effort from me to
do so.

Remember, you don’t have to find every game. You may in fact decide
you are only going to monitor games at certain times of the week. It could be,
say, between 6pm and 10pm during the week, or just on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Whenever you decide to do it, you will find opportunities most days.
But don’t force, if no game qualifies, move on to the next day.

Hope you enjoy and have great success with this second half trading
strategy

All the best

Jon and the Football Advisor Team

15
LEGAL NOTICE Disclaimer & Terms of Use

This e-book has been put together for educational purposes only; no guarantees can be
provided around profits or losses made from following this guide or any other material
provided by FootballAdvisor.net or IR28 Ventures Inc.

The author and IR28 Ventures Inc shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct,
indirect, punitive, incidental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly
from any use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties.

It is your responsibility to comply with gaming laws wherever you reside. In regions where
gambling is illegal, this e-book must be used for informational purposes only. Any links in
this e-book which lead to a third-party website must only be used when the local laws
allow.

You are not permitted to distribute this e-book and it may not be altered in any way. It may
not be shared or sold.
Further information can be found by reading our:

Terms & Conditions

Privacy Policy
Income Disclaimer
Lastly, if you think you may have a problem with gambling, we encourage you to seek help
and support from the many organisations available to you. These include:
http://www.gamcare.org.uk/
http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/
http://www.gamblingtherapy.org/
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org.uk/

16

Second Half Trading Final

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Second Half Trading Final

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Second Half Trading Final

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Background

We discarded Corners as although these can be an indicator of

With this mind, we focused our attentions on Shots on Target, namely

In those games, we are getting between 3 and 12 percentage points

Lets look at that in a little more detail

0.5 goals = 1.40 – 1.55

1.5 goals = 2.90 – 3.20

2.5 goals = 5.00 – 10.00

A few more specific observations;

Understandably, this has the lowest chance of 1 goal in our shortlist.

Shots on Target 5-7+

The smallest subset is 7+ on target without goals so as attractive as it

However, with the 5+ shots – we can actually get in earlier if we so

No goals – it qualify as a second half trade for us

So we can get in earlier because it will be a viable trade or a goal will

Terms & Conditions

You might also like