FM - 3A - Group 3 - Interest Rates
FM - 3A - Group 3 - Interest Rates
FM - 3A - Group 3 - Interest Rates
Group 3:
Jade N. Mendoza Edmonn Soriano
Liza Barcelona Rose Ann Abat
Cristal Adolacion Kyla Laconsay
Kaira Abagat Nica Cadiang
- are the price paid for
Interest rates differ, depending on the type of instruments and on the tenor of
investment.
Nominal Interest Rates
refers to the interest rate before
taking inflation into account
Interest rate movements in the Philippines are affected general
ly by the price level or inflation rate, fiscal
policy stance, and intermediation cost which could impact
the demand and supply for money.
Inflation rate
The BSP’s policy direction to achieve its mandate of maintaining price stability has a
marked influence on the interest rate level. When there is too much liquidity in the system,
there is more pressure for inflation to rise. To curb inflationary
pressures arising from excess liquidity in the
system, the BSP will have to increase its key policy rates, overnight
borrowing rate or reverse repurchase rate (RRP) and overnight lending rate or repurchase
rate (RP).
By increasing its key policy rates, the BSP is sending a signal to the
market that the general level of interest rates will be on an uptrend. In
mirroring the movement of the BSP’s policy rates, the benchmark 91‐day
T‐bill rate also sets the direction for other rates, specifically, bank lending
rates.
Fiscal policy stance
The fiscal policy stance may also influence the direction of interest
rates. A government that incurs a fiscal deficit needs to finance its
existing budgetary requirements by borrowing from the domestic
market or from abroad. The higher is the fiscal deficit,
the stronger the demand to borrow to finance the gap. This exerts upward
pressure on
domestic interest rates, particularly if the government borrows
from a relatively less liquid domestic market.
Intermediation cost
Financial institutions incur costs in extending their services. Interest rates will tend to be
high when intermediation cost is high.
Included in the
intermediation costs are administrative costs and the BSP’s reserve requirements.
Other factors that could influence the interest rates include the maturity period of the financial
instrument and the perception of risks associated with the
instrument. Those with longer‐term maturity and with higher probability of
incurring loss carry higher interest rates. The lack of intermediation could also
affect interest rate movement. For instance, with their larger
holdings of non‐performing assets (NPAs), banks are more cautious in their
lending activities. This would tend to induce an increase in interest rates.
WHAT IS AN INTEREST
RATE CORRIDOR (IRC)?
Low interest rate- reflects competitive conditions as well as the actual cost
of funds, should impact positively on a bank’s financial performance.
High interest rate- tend to reduce borrowing for investment activity,
ultimately leading to slower economic growth.
Very low interest rate- it leads to sharp and sustained increases in asset
prices beyond what can be supported by long term economic fundamentals.
HOW WOULD YOU
DESCRIBE INTEREST
DEVELOPMENT SINCE
THE MID 1990’S
- 1998- treasury bill rates is declined because of the
Asia Crisis in 1997.
- 2002- reached its lowest yield.
- 2002-2004 - begin to inch up
- 2005-2006 - T-bill rate eased. It reflecting
decelerating inflation, improving fiscal
performance and ample liquidity in the financial
system.
- 2006- April 2007-The down trend in T-bill rates
- September 2007- Rate continued to increase
gradually due to worries over the impact of the U.S
subprime mortgage market troubles on local market,
despite continued benign inflation.
- December 2007- average domestic interest rate
eased.
- 2008- T-bill rates trekked a general uptrend as a result
of higher inflation due mainly to rising commodity prices
and due to the higher risk premium demanded.
- 2009- short term interest rates started to ease
following the six rate cuts in the BSP’s key policy rates
since December 2008.
- 2010-2011 –interest rate declined further as a result
of BSP’s previous monetary policy decision.
- 2012 – domestic interest rate in the primary market
started to increase on the back of cautious market
sentiment amid the continued debt crisis in the euro
area.
- 2013- domestic interest rated in the primary market
declined for ample liquidity in the financial system.
- In 2014, the average T-bill rates in the primary market edged higher as inventors
sought higher yields on expectations of on increase in interest rates as the US
Federal Reserve’s monthly bond-buying ended in October 2014.
- In 2015, Treasury bill rates in the primary market rose across tenors even as
domestic inflation remained subdued throughout the year.
- In 2016, T-bill rates declined reflecting strong investor reference for short-dated
tenors amid concern over slowing economic growth in Asia and the continued
expectation of a US Fed rate hike in the coming months.
- In 2017, T-bill increased due to geopolitical concerns overseas and heightened
uncertainty on the direction of US fiscal and monetary policy.
- In 2018, T-bill rates further increased as a result of policy rate hikes by the BSP
and the US Federal Reserve.
- The average interest rates for 91-, 182- and 364-day T-bills in the primary market
in Q1 2020 rose to 3.161 percent, 3.459 percent, and 3.793 percent from 3.118
percent, 3.229 percent and 3.528 percent, respectively, in the previous quarter.
The results of the auctions reflected market players’ risk aversion amid
geopolitical tensions between the US and Irans as well as concerns over the
impact of Taal Volcano's eruption during the early part of the quarter. However, a
declining trend was seen mid-part of the quarter following the 75-basis point
cumulative policy rate cut by the BSP and due to increased demand for short-
term government securities amid uncertainties and lingering concerns over the
COVID-19 outbreak.