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Citizen views on the election

environment for the 2021 general
elections in Uganda

Findings from 2020/2021Afrobarometer survey in Uganda

HATCHILE CONSULT LTD

Social Research and Integrated Business Consultancy
 At a glance
■ Readiness for 2021 elections: A majority of Ugandans think the
Electoral Commission is well prepared for the 2021 elections, but
fewer trust that the commission will deliver a free, fair, and
credible election.

■ COVID-19 impacts on 2021 election: Many Ugandans say COVID-

19 is impacting the ability of individuals and institutions to
participate, campaign, and monitor the 2021 elections.

■ Election campaign environment: Fewer than half of all

respondents feel that the election campaign environment has
been free and fair for all candidates.

■ Vote choice: President Yoweri Museveni holds a nearly 3-to-1 lead

over his main challenger among registered voters willing to
declare their voting intentions, but many respondents would not
say how they intended to vote.
 What is Afrobarometer?
• A pan-African, non-partisan survey research project that measures citizen
attitudes on democracy and governance, the economy, civil society, and
other topics.
• Core objectives:
o To produce scientifically reliable data and analysis on public opinion in
Africa;
o To strengthen the capacity of African institutions for democratic
governance survey research and analysis; and
o To broadly disseminate and apply democratic governance survey results
• Leading source of reliable data on what Africans think, their experiences
and political behaviors; all data is made publicly available
• Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making by providing high-quality
public opinion data to policymakers, policy advocates, civil society,
academics, news media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.
• A national partner in each country conducts the survey. In Uganda,
Afrobarometer Round 8.5 survey was conducted by Hatchile Consult.
Where Afrobarometer works
Methodology
• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens
o All respondents are randomly selected.
o Sample is distributed across [regions/states/provinces] and
urban/rural areas in proportion to their share in the national
population.
o Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.
• Face-to-face interviews In the language of the respondent’s
choice.
• Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and
over time.
• Sample sizes of 2,400 adult citizens for this survey yields margins
of sampling error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence level.
• Fieldwork for Round 8.5 in Uganda was conducted between 22
December 2020 and 7 January 2021 in 300 enumeration areas
across 110 districts.
Survey coverage
Survey demographics
Gender % Region %
Women 49% Northern 20%
Men 51% Eastern 24%
Central 24%
Residence
Western 26%
Rural 69% Kampala 6%
Urban 31%
Subregion
Education
Buganda 24%
Primary school 42%
Eastern 15%
Secondary school 34%
Busoga 10%
Post-secondary qualifications 14%
Ankore 9%
No formal schooling 9%
Tooro 7%
Employment West Nile 7%
Not employed, not looking 28% Bunyoro 6%
Not employed, looking 29% Kampala 6%
Lango 6%
Employed, part time 19% Acholi 4%
Employed, full time 24% Kigezi 4%
Karamoja 2%
National context for the 2021 election
Key findings

■ Direction in which the country is headed: Only half (51%) of

respondents feel the country is headed in the right direction, a
drop from 64% recorded in 2015.

■ Economic and living conditions: Only about one-third of

Ugandans describe the country’s economic condition (30%) and
their personal living conditions (35%) as “fairly good” or “very
good,” a decline from 2019.

■ Election campaigns: Three-fourths (76%) of respondents say they

have followed the 2021 election campaigns “fairly” or “very”
closely.
Direction of the country | 2012-2021
100%

80%
73%

64%
60%
60%
50% 51%
48%
46%

40% 37%
32%

21%
20%

0%
2012 2015 2017 2019 2020/21
Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction

Respondents were asked: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right
direction?
Country’s economic condition and personal living
conditions | Uganda | 2019-2021
100%

80%

60%

40% 41%
40% 35%
30%

20%

0%
Country economic conditions fairly or Personal living conditions fairly or very
very good good
2019 2020/21

Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe: A) The present economic condition of this
country? B) Your own present living conditions? (% who say “fairly” or “very” good)
How closely following 2021 election campaigns
| Uganda | 2020/2021
100%

80%

60%

39% 37%
40%

20% 17%
8%

0%
Not at all Not very closely Fairly closely Very closely

Respondents were asked: How closely are you following the campaigning for the 2021 general
elections?
Electoral context

Commitment to democracy,
multipartyism, and elections
Key findings

■ Demand for and supply of democracy: Both demand for

democracy and supply of democracy have declined compared
to 2017.

■ Support for multiparty elections: About three-fourths of Ugandans

say that elections are the best way to choose their leaders (78%, a
10-percentage-point decrease since 2011) and that many
political parties are needed to ensure real choices at the ballot
box (74%, a 6-point increase).
Demand for and supply of democracy | Uganda | 2000-2021
100%

80%

63% 60%
60%
55% 50%
45% 43% 49%
42% 43%
40% 42%
40% 40% 38%
34% 31% 37% 36%
34%
20%

0%
2000 2002 2005 2008 2012 2015 2017 2019 2020/21
Demand for democracy Supply of democracy
Graph shows two indices:
- Demand for democracy: % who prefer democracy AND reject one-man, military, and one-party rule.
- Supply of democracy: % who say the country is “a full democracy” or “a democracy with minor
problems” AND are “fairly” or “very” satisfied with the way democracy works in their country.
Support for multipartyism and elections | Uganda | 2011-2021
100%
88% 86% 83%
78% 78%
80%

60% 71% 75% 71% 74%

68%

40%

20%

0%
2011 2015 2017 2019 2020/21

Elections best method for choosing leaders Many political parties are needed

Respondents were asked:

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
1. Statement 1: We should choose our leaders in this country through regular, open, and honest elections.
Statement 2: Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing
this country’s leaders. (% choosing Statement 1)
2. Statement 1: Political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have many political
parties in Uganda. Statement 2: Many political parties are needed to make sure that Ugandans have real
choices in who governs them. (% choosing Statement 2)
Managing the election

Electoral Commission and other actors

Key findings
■ Effectiveness of Electoral Commission: The Electoral Commission
gets high marks for management of the registration process and
providing information, but lower marks for ensuring a level playing
field and adherence to electoral rules.

■ Readiness of EC to deliver free and fair elections: A majority feel

the Electoral Commission is well prepared, but fewer have
confidence that the Electoral Commission can deliver a free, fair,
and credible election in 2021.

■ Trust in institutions managing elections: Fewer than half of

Ugandans trust political parties, security agencies, courts of law,
and the Presidency to do their best to ensure that 2021 elections
are free, fair, and credible.
 Effectiveness of the Electoral Commission | Uganda
| 2020/2021

Managing the voter registration process 73%

Providing voters with information about

68%
voting process

Ensuring candidates observe rules and

55%
regulations

Ensuring candidates have equal access to

40%
voters

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: How effective do you think the Electoral Commission of Uganda has been in fulfilling
each of the following responsibilities in preparation for the 2021 general election: A. Managing the voter
registration process? B. Providing voters with necessary information, for example about how to register, and when,
where and how to vote? C. Ensuring that all candidates and parties observe rules and regulations regarding
campaigning? D. Ensuring that all candidates and parties have equal opportunity to meet with their supporters
and conduct their campaigns? (% who say “somewhat effective” or “very effective”)
Readiness of EC to deliver free and fair elections
| Uganda | 2020/2021

EC well prepared to manage 2021

70%
elections

Trust EC to ensure free, fair, peaceful and

48%
credible elections

Confidence in EC to organize credible

47%
elections

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked:

1. In your opinion, how well prepared do you think the Electoral Commission or EC is to effectively manage the
2021 election? (% who say “somewhat” or “very” well prepared)
2. How much confidence do you have in the ability of the Electoral Commission or EC to organize credible
elections? (% who say “some confidence” or “a lot of confidence”)
3. With respect to the upcoming 2021 general elections, how much do you trust each of the following institutions
to do their best to ensure that the elections are free, fair, credible, and peaceful: The Electoral Commission of
Uganda? (% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”)
 Is Electoral Commission neutral or partisan? | Uganda
| 2019-2021
100%

80%

60% 57%
52%
41% 41%
40%

20%

0%
2019 2020/21

EC is neutral EC favours particular people and parties

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: The Electoral Commission of Uganda performs its duties as a neutral body guided by law.
Statement 2: The Electoral Commission of Uganda makes decisions that favour particular people, parties or interests.
(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” with each statement)
 Trust in institutions managing 2021 elections | Uganda
| 2020/2021
Local and international election observers 59%

Courts of Law 49%

Uganda Peoples’ Defense Forces 49%

Electoral Commission 48%

Uganda Police Force 47%

The presidency 47%

National Resistance Movement, or NRM 45%

Opposition political parties 44%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Respondents were asked: With respect to the upcoming 2021 general elections, how much do you trust each of the
following institutions to do their best to ensure that the elections are free, fair, credible, and peaceful: The
Presidency? The Electoral Commission of Uganda? Uganda Police Force? Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces? The
NRM party? Opposition political parties? Courts of law? Local and international election observers?
(% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”)
Citizen readiness to vote
Candidate awareness and registration
status
Key findings

■ Readiness to vote: Large majorities of respondents say they have

National ID Cards (85%), are registered to vote (84%), have confirmed
the name and location of their polling station (77%), and have verified
their voter registration status (74%).
■ Among respondents who say they obtained a National ID Card,
three in 10 (30%) say it was difficult to do. Fewer report difficulties
completing the other tasks.
 Knowledge of presidential candidates | Uganda
| 2020/2021
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni 96%
Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu 90%
Patrick Amuriat Oboi 48%
John Katumba 36%
Mugisha Muntu 25%
Norbert Mao 24%
Henry Tumukunde 21%
Nancy Linda Kalembe 18%
Joseph Kabuleta Kiiza 8%
Willy Mayambala 5%
Fred Mwesigye 2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: Can you tell me the names of all of the candidates who are running for president in the
upcoming 2021 general elections that you can remember? (Figure shows % of respondents who mentioned each
candidate)
Registration and verification | Uganda | 2020/2021
100%
85% 84%
80% 77%
74%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Possess National ID Registered to vote in Confirmed name Verified voter
Card 2021 elections and location of registration status
polling station

Respondents were asked: With respect to participation in the ongoing electoral process for the 2021 general
elections, please tell me: A) Are you registered to vote in the coming 2021 general elections? B) Do you have
a National Identification Card or National ID? C) Have you verified your voter registration status in your
parish? D) Have you confirmed the name and location of your polling station? (% who say “yes”)
 Ease of preparing to vote | Uganda | 2020/2021

To confirm the name and location of polling

91% 9%
station

To verify your voter registration status 91% 9%

To register as a voter 84% 16%

To register for a National Identification Card 70% 30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Easy/Very easy Difficulty/Very difficult

Respondents who said they had completed these tasks were asked: How easy or difficult was it to do each of the
following: A) To register as a voter? B) To register for a National Identification Card? C) To verify your voter
registration status? D) To confirm the name and location of polling station?
The campaign environment
Free and fair for all candidates?
Key findings

■ Election campaign environment: Fewer than half of respondents

feel that the election campaign environment has been free and
fair for all candidates.

■ Opposition silenced by government: The proportion of Ugandans

who say the opposition and its supporters are “often” or “always”
silenced by government has almost doubled compared to 2015,
to 61%.

■ Fear: Fear of political intimidation or violence during elections has

increased compared to 2011.
Free and fair campaign environment | Uganda
| 2020/2021

Coverage of all candidates/parties by

48%
private media

Treatment of all candidates/parties by

36%
election officials

Opportunity for all candidates/parties to

34%
hold meetings/rallies

Coverage of all candidates/parties by

33%
government media

Treatment of all candidates/parties by

29%
police and other security agencies

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: How free and fair do you think the campaign environment has been with
regard to each of the following? (% who say “completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor
problems”)
Opposition silenced by government | Uganda
| 2015-2021
100%

80%

61%
60%
51%

40% 36%
33%

20%
13%
6%

0%
2015 2020/21
Never/Rarely Often/Always Don’t know

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how often, in this country, are opposition parties or
their supporters silenced by the government?
Fear political intimidation or violence | Uganda
| 2011-2021
100%

80%

60%
49% 51%

40% 37%

20%

0%
2011 2015 2020/21

Respondents were asked: During the current election campaign, how much do you personally
fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence? (% “somewhat” or “a lot”)
Likely impacts

COVID-19 and 2021 general elections

Key findings

■ COVID-19 impacts on 2021 election: Many Ugandans believe that

COVID-19 is having “some” or “a lot of” impact on the ability of
individuals and institutions to participate, campaign, and monitor the
2021 elections.

■ Enforcing COVID-19 regulations: A majority say that to help ensure free,

fair, and credible 2021 elections, the police and security agencies should
relax their enforcement of COVID-19 regulations.

■ Election impacts on the COVID-19 pandemic: More than seven in 10

Ugandans (72%) consider it likely that COVID-19 infections will spread as a
result of people gathering to vote.
COVID-19 impact on 2021 elections | Uganda | 2020/2021

Ability of all candidates to have a fair

61%
chance to campaign
Ability of local and international election
56%
observers to fully monitor the election

Decision to attend campaign events 51%

Credibility of final election results 48%

Ability of Electoral Commission to ensure free

45%
and fair elections
Ability of police/security forces to enforce
44%
electoral laws fairly

Decision to go to polling station to vote 39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how much impact do you expect the COVID-19 pandemic to have on each of the
following aspects of the 2021 general elections: A) Your decision to go to a polling station to vote in person? B) Your decision to
attend in-person campaign meetings or rallies? C) The ability of the Electoral Commission of Uganda to ensure that the election
is free and fair? D) The ability of the police and security agencies to fairly enforce electoral laws? E) The ability of all candidates
to have an equal and fair chance to campaign and communicate with voters? F) The ability of local and international election
observers to fully monitor the elections? G) The credibility of the final result of the general elections? (% who say “some impact”
or “a lot of impact”)
Views on enforcing COVID-19 regulations during the
election campaign | Uganda | 2020/2021

1%

Police justified in using

force to enforce COVID-19
37% regulations
Enforcement of COVID-19
regulations should be
relaxed during elections
Don't know
62%

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: Knowing the health and economic dangers COVID-19 can cause to Uganda, the police are justified to use
extreme force to enforce COVID-19 regulations during the election campaign.
Statement 2: For the sake of having a free, fair, and credible election, the police should relax their enforcement of COVID-
19 regulations.
(% who “agree” or “agree strongly” with each statement)
COVID-19 impacts on the election campaigns| 2020/21
100%

80%

64%
60%

40%
32%

20%

0%
2021 elections should have been Government proposal to distribute radio
postponed and TV sets justified

Respondents were asked: In view of the threat of COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda and government’s decision to move
most election campaigns over to the media, please tell me whether you disagree or agree with each of the following
statements? A) The 2021 general elections should have been postponed until it becomes safe for all voters to participate.
B) Government’s proposal to provide free radio sets to all Ugandan households and TV sets to communities during the
COVID-19 pandemic is justified.
(% who “agree” or “agree strongly” with each statement)
COVID-19 impacts on Election Day | Uganda |
2020/2021
100%

80%
72%

60%
60%
51%

40%

20%

0%
Regional and Citizens not allowed to COVID-19 infections likely
international observers observe vote count, tally, to spread among voters
unable to deploy and declaration

Respondents were asked: How likely do you think it is that each of the following problems could arise on
Election Day due to the COVID-19 pandemic, or haven’t you heard enough to say: A) Citizens will not be
allowed to observe vote counting, tabulation, or declaration at polling station? B) Regional and international
election observers will not able to deploy in-country? C) COVID-19 infections will spread as a result of people
gathering to vote in the election? (% who say “somewhat likely” or “very likely”)
Vote buying

Attitudes, perceptions, and practices

Key findings

■ Vote buying: More than one-third (35%) of all respondents say

they have been offered incentives in return for their votes in the
2021 election, mostly in monetary terms.

■ Response to vote buying: Most Ugandans say that if offered

money or a gift in exchange for their vote, they would accept it
and vote for the candidate of their own choice.

■ Wrong to give or accept vote incentives? The proportion of

Ugandans who feel it is “wrong and punishable” to give or to
accept vote incentives has declined over the past decade.
Experiences with vote buying | Uganda | 2020/2021

65%
of offers were
monetary

35%
say they were
offered something in
67% 33%
of offers of offers came
return for their vote came from the
from NRM opposition

Respondents were asked: During the campaign for the 2021 elections, how often, if ever, has a candidate
or someone from a political party offered you something in return for your vote? [If “once or twice,” “a
few times,” or “often”:] What did they offer you? Which candidate or party made these offers?
 Response to vote buying | Uganda | 2011-2021
Take the money and vote for the candidate 66%
of their choice 76%
Community
response

Take the money and vote for that 7%

candidate 12%
Refuse the money and vote for the 7%
candidate of their choice 5%
Personal response

Take the money and vote for the candidate 76%

of your choice 72%
Take the money and vote for that 4%
candidate 7%
Refuse the money and vote for the 19%
candidate of your choice 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2011 2020/21
Respondents were asked:
If a candidate or party official offered you money or a gift in exchange for your vote, would you… ?
And in your opinion, what would most other people in your community do if a candidate or party
official offered them money or a gift in exchange for their vote? Would they… ?
Views on giving and receiving vote incentives | Uganda
| 2011-2021
Views on giving Views on accepting
100% 100%

80% 80%

56% 58%
60% 52% 60% 52%
46%
40% 37% 36% 40% 34% 36%39%
27% 24% 24% 27%
15% 18%
20% 20%
9% 11%

0% 0%
2011 2019 2020/21 2011 2019 2020/21
Not wrong at all to GIVE Not wrong at all to ACCEPT
Wrong but understandable to GIVE Wrong but understandable to ACCEPT
Wrong and punishable to GIVE Wrong and punishable to ACCEPT

Respondents were asked:

In your opinion, when a candidate or political party offers voters money or gifts in exchange for their votes, is
this not wrong at all, wrong but understandable, or wrong and punishable?
In your opinion, if a voter accepts money or gifts in exchange for his or her vote, is this not wrong at all, wrong
but understandable, or wrong and punishable?
Election expectations

Free, fair, and accurate

Key findings

■ Expectations of election quality: Fewer than half of Ugandans

believe that the 2021 general elections will be free and fair.
■ More citizens trust the vote count at their polling station than at
the national tally centre.

■ Election malpractices: Large majorities expect that the losing side

will not accept the election results (80%) but believe that security
agencies will be able to prevent large-scale violence (73%).

■ Voting intentions: Among the 84% of survey respondents who said

they were registered to vote, more than half (53%) indicated they
would vote for President Yoweri Museveni, while 18% said they
would cast their ballots for challenger Robert Kyagulanyi Sentamu
(better known as Bobi Wine).
■ However, about one in four registered voters refused to answer
the question (22%) or said they did not know how they would vote
(2%).
Expectations of election quality | Uganda | 2020/2021
100%

80% 76%

60%
44%
40% 34%

20%

0%
2021 election will be free Vote count will be Vote count will be
and fair accurate at polling station accurate at national tally
centre

Respondents were asked:

On the whole, how free or fair do you expect the forthcoming 2021 general elections to be?
(% who say “completely free and fair’ or “free and fair with minor problems”)
How accurate or inaccurate do you expect the following counting and tallying of election
results in the 2021 general elections to be at: Your own polling station? The national tally
centre in Kampala? (% who say “fairly accurate” or “very accurate”)
 Likelihood of problems on Election Day | Uganda
| 2020/2021

Violence at polling station 63%

All votes not counted, fairly reflected 48%

Stealing, tampering with ballot boxes 42%

Lack necessary election material 39%

Pressure on voters 36%

Voting more than once 29%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: How likely do you think it is that the following things could happen at your
polling station on election day, or haven’t you heard enough to say: A) Not having all necessary
election materials? B) All votes may not be accurately counted or fairly reflected in the results? C)
People stealing or tampering with ballot boxes? D) Voters being pressured to vote a certain way at or
near the polling station? E) Some people may vote more than once? F) There could be violence due
to disagreements about the results? (% who say “somewhat likely” or “very likely”)
Expectations for Election Day | Uganda | 2020/2021

100%

80%
80%
73%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Losers won't accept results Security agencies can prevent violence

Respondents were asked: In your view, how likely is it:

That the losers of the elections will refuse to accept the official election results?
That Uganda’s security agencies will be able to prevent large-scale outbreaks of violence?
(% who say “somewhat” or “very” likely)
Voting intentions and expected winner for president
| Uganda | 2020/2021
100%
Voting intention among all
respondents
80%
Voting intention among
registered voters
60% 57%
53% Expected winner
50%

40%

19% 18% 21% 21% 22%

20%
9% 10%
5% 5% 3% 2% 2%
0%
Museveni/ Kyagulanyi/ Other candidate Refused to Don't know
NRM NUP or party answer

Respondents were asked:

If an election were held tomorrow, which party or candidate would you vote for in the
presidential election?
Regardless of who you will vote for or whether or not you will vote, which candidate or
party do you expect will win the 2021 presidential election?
Voting intentions | by age and location | Uganda
| 2020/2021
100%

80%

62%
60% 57% 55%
45%
40% 35%
26% 28% 26% 26%
22% 24% 22%
20% 15% 13%
6% 5% 5% 7%
4% 2%
0%
Urban Rural 18-35 years 36-55 years 56 years and
above
Museveni/NRM Kyagulanyi/NUP Other candidate/party Refused/Don't know

Respondents were asked: If an election were held tomorrow, which party or candidate would
you vote for in the presidential election? (% of all respondents)
Voting intentions for Parliament | Uganda | 2020/2021

National Resistance Movement [NRM] 49%

52%
Refused to answer 16%
16%
National Unity Party (NUP) 16%
15%
Other parties or independent candidates 7%
7%
Forum for Democratic Change [FDC] 4% All respondents
4%
Uganda Peoples Congress [UPC] 1%
1% Registered voters

Democratic Party 1%
1%
Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) 1%
1%
Don't know 2%
2%
Would not vote 4%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Respondents were asked: If an election were held tomorrow, which candidate or party’s
candidate would you vote for in the parliamentary election?
Conclusions
■ COVID-19 impacts on 2021 election: Many Ugandans see the
pandemic as negatively impacting the 2021 elections – and
expect the election to worsen the pandemic.

■ Citizens’ expectations on credibility of 2021 elections: Although a

majority of Ugandans are prepared to vote and see the Electoral
Commission as well prepared, fewer trust that the 2021 elections
will be free, fair, and credible.

■ Vote choice: President Museveni holds a clear lead, but many

respondents would not say how they intended to vote, so the final
outcome may be much closer. The nation could also be headed
toward electing a more closely divided Parliament.
 Thank you

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