Muranga County Snap Poll - September 2021

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POLITICAL OPINION POLL SEPTEMBER 2021

MURANG’A COUNTY
METHODOLOGY
Dates of Field Work 27TH-28TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021

Sample Size 600

Sampling Methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Spread
across all the 7 constituencies in Murang’a County. Sample split was guided by all adults
age 22+ proportionate to size as per the IEBC electoral register, 2018. (The ages were
adjusted by 4 years to account for the time that has lapsed since last official IEBC
register)
Population Universe Kenyan adults, aged 22 and above living in all the 7 constituencies of Murang’a County.

Data Collection Methodology Computer Aided Telephone Interview (CATI)

Sampling Error +/- 4 % with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Interview Languages English/Swahili

Finance The Survey was funded by the Star Publications.


POLL SAMPLE
GENDER Sample %
Male 336 56%
Female 264 44%
Total 600 100%

22 to 28 YRS 29 TO 39 YRS 40 TO 49 YRS 50 TO 59 YRS OVER 60 YRS


FEMAL FEMAL FEMAL FEMAL FEMAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
CONSTITUENCY E MALE E MALE E MALE E MALE E MALE FEMALE MALE SAMPLE
KANGEMA 3 4 6 6 5 5 4 7 4 6 22 28 50
MATHIOYA 4 4 6 7 5 5 5 9 4 7 24 32 56
KIHARU 8 9 14 15 11 11 9 17 9 14 51 66 117
KIGUMO 5 7 10 11 8 8 6 10 6 9 35 45 80
MARAGWA 7 9 13 13 10 10 7 12 7 10 45 53 98
KANDARA 7 9 12 13 10 10 7 14 7 12 43 58 101
GATANGA 7 8 13 13 10 11 7 12 7 10 44 54 98

*** The ages are adjusted by 4 years to account for the period since last IEBC Electoral Register
Table of
Contents
Problems Facing
Murang’a
We take County
a look at the most pressing issues facing Murang’a Politi
County and respective constituencies constituency. We measure the popularity of the potential presidential candidate
cs
and gubernatorial candidate.
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING MURANG’A
COUNTY
72%
High Cost of Living

45% Unemployment/Lack of Jobs

24% Poor Healthcare

23% Corruption

17% Poor Leadership


TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING MURANG’A COUNTY
BY DEMOGRAPHICS
MOST PRESSING ISSUES Total Male Female 22-28 29-39 40-49 50-59 60+
High cost of living 72% 71% 73% 78% 76% 64% 76% 68%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 45% 46% 43% 52% 59% 49% 33% 29%
Poor health care 24% 23% 26% 16% 25% 21% 28% 28%
Corruption 23% 24% 23% 21% 22% 24% 28% 22%
Poor Leadership 17% 17% 18% 12% 18% 21% 22% 13%
Poor roads 15% 14% 16% 22% 8% 20% 6% 24%
Water shortage 14% 13% 16% 23% 6% 20% 10% 18%
Security: Increased crime 14% 13% 14% 9% 17% 14% 13% 14%
Poor quality education 11% 10% 12% 10% 10% 14% 11% 12%
Market for agricultural produce 10% 11% 9% 8% 4% 11% 14% 18%
Food insecurity 10% 10% 10% 7% 11% 8% 11% 13%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 10% 12% 8% 10% 11% 6% 14% 8%
Curfew 8% 10% 6% 16% 8% 5% 7% 6%
Drought 5% 5% 6% 6% 9% 3% 4% 4%
Covid-19 5% 5% 6% 1% 5% 7% 6% 7%
Land issues (title deeds) 4% 6% 3% 4% 3% 4% 6% 5%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 4% 3% 5% 0% 5% 1% 7% 4%
Lack of access to financial services 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 0% 4%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1%
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING MURANG’A COUNTY
BY CONSTITUENCY
MOST PRESSING ISSUES Total Kiharu Kigumo Kangema Mathioya Maragwa Kandara Gatanga
High cost of living 72% 60% 75% 72% 87% 84% 63% 74%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 45% 27% 68% 42% 51% 41% 48% 48%
Poor health care 24% 24% 31% 24% 22% 16% 14% 38%
Corruption 23% 25% 25% 20% 5% 46% 14% 19%
Poor Leadership 17% 12% 14% 16% 45% 21% 14% 12%
Poor roads 15% 24% 9% 8% 5% 14% 27% 5%
Water shortage 14% 24% 4% 10% 2% 9% 35% 5%
Security: Increased crime 14% 20% 11% 24% 9% 16% 10% 6%
Poor quality education 11% 12% 8% 12% 13% 9% 22% 4%
Market for agricultural produce 10% 15% 3% 6% 2% 6% 10% 23%
Food insecurity 10% 24% 1% 10% 7% 7% 11% 4%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 10% 5% 16% 8% 20% 1% 11% 14%
Curfew 8% 6% 10% 12% 5% 7% 2% 14%
Covid-19 5% 2% 9% 4% 5% 1% 6% 11%
Drought 5% 1% 5% 8% 15% 0% 10% 5%
Land issues (title deeds) 4% 4% 8% 4% 4% 2% 1% 9%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 4% 2% 4% 6% 0% 8% 1% 5%
Lack of access to financial services 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 6% 0% 0%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING YOUR
CONSTITUENCY
65%
High Cost of Living

40% Unemployment/Lack of Jobs

23% Water Shortage

22% Poor Roads

22% Corruption
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING YOUR
CONSTITUENCY – BY CONSTITUENCY
MOST PRESSING ISSUES Total Kiharu Kigumo Kangema Mathioya Maragwa Kandara Gatanga
High cost of living 65% 54% 70% 52% 71% 65% 66% 77%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 40% 26% 44% 40% 51% 38% 46% 44%
Water shortage 23% 39% 18% 28% 20% 12% 39% 5%
Poor roads 23% 34% 28% 20% 13% 16% 35% 8%
Corruption 22% 21% 35% 20% 2% 39% 15% 16%
Poor health care 20% 25% 11% 18% 29% 20% 6% 33%
Security: Increased crime 13% 13% 9% 18% 18% 21% 10% 4%
Market for agricultural produce 13% 13% 8% 12% 15% 5% 11% 24%
Drought 12% 2% 11% 14% 44% 2% 17% 13%
Curfew 10% 6% 14% 8% 4% 20% 2% 17%
Food insecurity 10% 15% 4% 14% 7% 11% 11% 5%
Poor Leadership 9% 9% 9% 6% 7% 19% 7% 3%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 9% 6% 18% 8% 0% 1% 8% 18%
Poor quality education 8% 10% 8% 8% 11% 3% 15% 5%
Covid-19 5% 3% 6% 6% 5% 7% 8% 4%
Land issues (title deeds) 5% 6% 8% 6% 0% 0% 1% 14%
Lack of access to financial services 3% 3% 3% 6% 4% 7% 1% 2%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 3% 4% 1% 4% 0% 5% 1% 4%
Gender inequality 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 1% 0% 4% 2% 0% 1% 0%
Power Shortage 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0%
POLITICS &
ELECTIONS
WHO ARE YOU LIKELY TO VOTE FOR AS THE
GOVERNOR FOR MURANG’A COUNTY IN THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTIONS ?
WHO ARE YOU LIKELY TO VOTE FOR AS THE GOVERNOR FOR
MURANG’A COUNTY IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTIONS – BY
DEMOGRAPHICS
Candidates Total Female Male 22-28 29-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Irungu Kangata 37.3% 34.6% 39.4% 43.3% 35.0% 32.2% 36.6% 41.8%
Jamleck Kamau 17.5% 15.0% 19.4% 18.9% 18.5% 19.8% 15.4% 14.5%
Sabina Chege 12.6% 15.0% 10.7% 12.2% 14.6% 13.2% 11.4% 10.9%
Wilson Irungu Nyakera 7.8% 6.4% 9.0% 5.6% 7.0% 8.3% 6.5% 11.8%
Joseph Irungu Wairagu 6.7% 7.9% 5.7% 3.3% 7.0% 7.4% 8.1% 6.4%
Moses Mwangi 2.0% 2.6% 1.5% 4.4% 1.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9%
James Macharia 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.9%
Ndindi Nyoro 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.9%
Kembi Gitura 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0%
Stanley Kamau 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.9%
Peter Kagwanja 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
Jimnah Mbaru 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mwangi Ng'ang'a 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Undecided 9.7% 12.0% 7.8% 8.9% 10.8% 9.1% 12.2% 6.4%
Won’t Vote 3.2% 3.8% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% 6.6% 2.4% 2.7%
Refused to answer 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.9%
WHO ARE YOU LIKELY TO VOTE FOR AS THE GOVERNOR FOR
MURANG’A COUNTY
IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTIONS- BY CONSTITUENCY
Candidates Total Gatanga Kandara Kangema Kigumo Kiharu Maragwa Mathioya
Irungu Kangata 37.3% 43.9% 34.7% 42.0% 32.5% 35.3% 27.6% 54.5%
Jamleck Kamau 17.5% 12.2% 13.9% 16.0% 16.3% 19.3% 25.5% 18.2%
Sabina Chege 12.6% 9.2% 14.9% 12.0% 15.0% 15.1% 12.2% 7.3%
Wilson Irungu Nyakera 7.8% 2.0% 15.8% 2.0% 7.5% 11.8% 6.1% 3.6%
Joseph Irungu Wairagu 6.7% 13.3% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.3%
Moses Mwangi 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.1% 0.0%
James Macharia 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Ndindi Nyoro 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 1.8%
Kembi Gitura 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanley Kamau 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Peter Kagwanja 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Jimnah Mbaru 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mwangi Ng'ang'a 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Undecided 9.7% 15.3% 8.9% 6.0% 8.8% 5.9% 13.3% 7.3%
Won’t Vote 3.2% 3.1% 2.0% 6.0% 2.5% 0.8% 8.2% 0.0%
Refused to answer 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
REGARDLESS OF WHOM YOU WILL VOTE FOR, WHO DO
YOU THINK WILL WIN?
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU CLOSEST TO TO?
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY,
WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR AS
PRESIDENT?
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY,
WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR AS
PRESIDENT?-DEMOGRAPHICS
Presidential Candidates Total 22-28 29-39 40-49 50-59 60+
William Ruto 49.3% 53.3% 54.8% 52.1% 43.1% 41.8%
Mwangi Wa Iria 8.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.3% 6.5% 7.3%
Raila Odinga 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 5.0% 3.3% 6.4%
Peter Kenneth 4.3% 3.3% 3.8% 3.3% 5.7% 5.5%
Martha Karua 3.7% 3.3% 2.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5%
Gideon Moi 2.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.5% 2.4% 4.5%
Alfred Mutua 1.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0%
Moses Kuria 1.2% 0.0% 0.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.9%
Musalia Mudavadi 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.6% 1.8%
Kivutha Kibwana 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 1.6% 0.0%
Kalonzo Musyoka 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
Fred Matiang’i 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hassan Joho 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
Undecided 18.5% 15.6% 17.2% 17.4% 19.5% 22.7%
Won’t Vote 2.8% 3.3% 1.3% 5.0% 3.3% 1.8%
Refused to answer 1.8% 3.3% 1.3% 0.0% 4.1% 0.9%

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