Muranga County Snap Poll - September 2021
Muranga County Snap Poll - September 2021
Muranga County Snap Poll - September 2021
MURANG’A COUNTY
METHODOLOGY
Dates of Field Work 27TH-28TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021
Sampling Methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Spread
across all the 7 constituencies in Murang’a County. Sample split was guided by all adults
age 22+ proportionate to size as per the IEBC electoral register, 2018. (The ages were
adjusted by 4 years to account for the time that has lapsed since last official IEBC
register)
Population Universe Kenyan adults, aged 22 and above living in all the 7 constituencies of Murang’a County.
Sampling Error +/- 4 % with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
*** The ages are adjusted by 4 years to account for the period since last IEBC Electoral Register
Table of
Contents
Problems Facing
Murang’a
We take County
a look at the most pressing issues facing Murang’a Politi
County and respective constituencies constituency. We measure the popularity of the potential presidential candidate
cs
and gubernatorial candidate.
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING MURANG’A
COUNTY
72%
High Cost of Living
23% Corruption
22% Corruption
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING YOUR
CONSTITUENCY – BY CONSTITUENCY
MOST PRESSING ISSUES Total Kiharu Kigumo Kangema Mathioya Maragwa Kandara Gatanga
High cost of living 65% 54% 70% 52% 71% 65% 66% 77%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 40% 26% 44% 40% 51% 38% 46% 44%
Water shortage 23% 39% 18% 28% 20% 12% 39% 5%
Poor roads 23% 34% 28% 20% 13% 16% 35% 8%
Corruption 22% 21% 35% 20% 2% 39% 15% 16%
Poor health care 20% 25% 11% 18% 29% 20% 6% 33%
Security: Increased crime 13% 13% 9% 18% 18% 21% 10% 4%
Market for agricultural produce 13% 13% 8% 12% 15% 5% 11% 24%
Drought 12% 2% 11% 14% 44% 2% 17% 13%
Curfew 10% 6% 14% 8% 4% 20% 2% 17%
Food insecurity 10% 15% 4% 14% 7% 11% 11% 5%
Poor Leadership 9% 9% 9% 6% 7% 19% 7% 3%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 9% 6% 18% 8% 0% 1% 8% 18%
Poor quality education 8% 10% 8% 8% 11% 3% 15% 5%
Covid-19 5% 3% 6% 6% 5% 7% 8% 4%
Land issues (title deeds) 5% 6% 8% 6% 0% 0% 1% 14%
Lack of access to financial services 3% 3% 3% 6% 4% 7% 1% 2%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 3% 4% 1% 4% 0% 5% 1% 4%
Gender inequality 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 1% 0% 4% 2% 0% 1% 0%
Power Shortage 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0%
POLITICS &
ELECTIONS
WHO ARE YOU LIKELY TO VOTE FOR AS THE
GOVERNOR FOR MURANG’A COUNTY IN THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTIONS ?
WHO ARE YOU LIKELY TO VOTE FOR AS THE GOVERNOR FOR
MURANG’A COUNTY IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTIONS – BY
DEMOGRAPHICS
Candidates Total Female Male 22-28 29-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Irungu Kangata 37.3% 34.6% 39.4% 43.3% 35.0% 32.2% 36.6% 41.8%
Jamleck Kamau 17.5% 15.0% 19.4% 18.9% 18.5% 19.8% 15.4% 14.5%
Sabina Chege 12.6% 15.0% 10.7% 12.2% 14.6% 13.2% 11.4% 10.9%
Wilson Irungu Nyakera 7.8% 6.4% 9.0% 5.6% 7.0% 8.3% 6.5% 11.8%
Joseph Irungu Wairagu 6.7% 7.9% 5.7% 3.3% 7.0% 7.4% 8.1% 6.4%
Moses Mwangi 2.0% 2.6% 1.5% 4.4% 1.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9%
James Macharia 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.9%
Ndindi Nyoro 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.9%
Kembi Gitura 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0%
Stanley Kamau 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.9%
Peter Kagwanja 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
Jimnah Mbaru 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mwangi Ng'ang'a 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Undecided 9.7% 12.0% 7.8% 8.9% 10.8% 9.1% 12.2% 6.4%
Won’t Vote 3.2% 3.8% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% 6.6% 2.4% 2.7%
Refused to answer 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.9%
WHO ARE YOU LIKELY TO VOTE FOR AS THE GOVERNOR FOR
MURANG’A COUNTY
IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTIONS- BY CONSTITUENCY
Candidates Total Gatanga Kandara Kangema Kigumo Kiharu Maragwa Mathioya
Irungu Kangata 37.3% 43.9% 34.7% 42.0% 32.5% 35.3% 27.6% 54.5%
Jamleck Kamau 17.5% 12.2% 13.9% 16.0% 16.3% 19.3% 25.5% 18.2%
Sabina Chege 12.6% 9.2% 14.9% 12.0% 15.0% 15.1% 12.2% 7.3%
Wilson Irungu Nyakera 7.8% 2.0% 15.8% 2.0% 7.5% 11.8% 6.1% 3.6%
Joseph Irungu Wairagu 6.7% 13.3% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.3%
Moses Mwangi 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.1% 0.0%
James Macharia 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Ndindi Nyoro 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 1.8%
Kembi Gitura 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanley Kamau 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Peter Kagwanja 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Jimnah Mbaru 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mwangi Ng'ang'a 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Undecided 9.7% 15.3% 8.9% 6.0% 8.8% 5.9% 13.3% 7.3%
Won’t Vote 3.2% 3.1% 2.0% 6.0% 2.5% 0.8% 8.2% 0.0%
Refused to answer 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
REGARDLESS OF WHOM YOU WILL VOTE FOR, WHO DO
YOU THINK WILL WIN?
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU CLOSEST TO TO?
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY,
WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR AS
PRESIDENT?
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY,
WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR AS
PRESIDENT?-DEMOGRAPHICS
Presidential Candidates Total 22-28 29-39 40-49 50-59 60+
William Ruto 49.3% 53.3% 54.8% 52.1% 43.1% 41.8%
Mwangi Wa Iria 8.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.3% 6.5% 7.3%
Raila Odinga 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 5.0% 3.3% 6.4%
Peter Kenneth 4.3% 3.3% 3.8% 3.3% 5.7% 5.5%
Martha Karua 3.7% 3.3% 2.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5%
Gideon Moi 2.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.5% 2.4% 4.5%
Alfred Mutua 1.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0%
Moses Kuria 1.2% 0.0% 0.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.9%
Musalia Mudavadi 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.6% 1.8%
Kivutha Kibwana 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 1.6% 0.0%
Kalonzo Musyoka 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
Fred Matiang’i 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hassan Joho 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
Undecided 18.5% 15.6% 17.2% 17.4% 19.5% 22.7%
Won’t Vote 2.8% 3.3% 1.3% 5.0% 3.3% 1.8%
Refused to answer 1.8% 3.3% 1.3% 0.0% 4.1% 0.9%