Current International Economic Problems
Current International Economic Problems
Current International Economic Problems
Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has transmitted with alarming speed, infecting millions and
bringing economic activity to an impasse as countries across the globe imposed stringent
lockdowns to halt the spread of the virus. The death toll as well as the economic toll caused
by the unprecedented pandemic is unforeseeable and incalculable. The pandemic has made
this a historic year for the global economy, now beset by a recession the likes of which we
haven’t seen since the Great Depression.
As the semi-annual report of the Global Economic Prospects(2021) suggests, there has been
no country or demographic group spared from the deleterious effects of Covid-19 except
China; and these reports clearly suggest a setback to the first of the seventeen SDGs-
eradicate extreme poverty. A report by the World Bank, highlights the pandemic’s damage
to inclusive growth, especially in middle-income countries and predicts that 88-115 million
people could fall back into extreme poverty in 2020-2021 as a result of the pandemic. It
calculates that the world economy would probably shrink by 4.3% in 2020 and a shortfall of
6.6% from the World Bank’s projection was recorded which is equivalent to $5.6trn (at the
market exchange rates and prices prevailing in 2010).
From lockdowns that crippled small businesses and supply chains and put millions out of
work, the number of long-term unemployed in U.S rose to 4 million in Nov.2020. They
comprise about 37 percent of the total unemployed population, nearly approaching the record
high ratio of more than 40 percent reached after the Great Financial Crisis. The share of long-
term unemployed people is likely to rise further and cause hardships for many working
people, regardless of the outcome of the new round of stimulus. The longer a person is
unemployed, the more difficult it is for that person to get a job.
Historically, US public debt has been contained between 40 and 60 percent of GDP in the
post-World War II era. But the setbacks effectuated by the pandemic is said to increase the
public debt dramatically to 136.9% at the end of 2024. Are US citizens ready to coexist with
such a high public debt for a long time? Will Joe Biden and Congress manage to raise the
debt ceiling smoothly over time?
In contrary to the rest of the global economy, China is one of the few countries in the world
to experience economic growth amidst encountering an pandemic. It is astounding that China
returned to market quickly by containing COVID-19, reopening the manufacturing sector,
and deepening regional trade undercurrents with countries like Vietnam. It also means that
the world will experience “fractured growth” where one major economy grows while all the
others contract for the first time in decades and slowly China surpassing U.S to become the
global superpower. What kind of strains will this put on our global economic recovery and
how will it all spill over into our geopolitics? That’s the question we’ll be asking and trying
to answer in 2021.