Abdul QadirMushtaq*

Muhammad Afzal**

Arab Spring: Its Causes And Consequences

Abstract
This paper attempts to examine the causes of the Arab Uprisings in Middle Eastern
states. It also highlights the events of the civil uprisings which led to the removal
of some rulers. Moreover this paper tries to predict the consequences of these
widespread protests on the region as well as on the surrounding states. It also
explores how the social media was used during these protests and how it helped to
spread the news of the events of these protests. It also extends that through these
uprisings and civil clashes, protesters succeeded to dethrone long-term
Authoritarian rulers of Tunis, Libya, and Egypt while some economic and social
rights were granted to citizens of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Bahrain.
Furthermore, it explores that Tunis was one of the victims of Arab Spring which
succeeded to get the real fruits of the revolution while all other states could not
succeeded to achieve their all desired goals.
Key words: Arab Spring, continuous emergency, Social Media, Civil
clashes, Tahrir Square.
Introduction
The first exact apply of the phrase “Arab Spring” to represent the current Arab
uprisingswas initiated by US political academic journal “Foreign Policy”
(Abusharif, 2014). It was Marc Lynch, an American political scientist, who used
this term in his article written in “Foreign Policy” journal (Abusharif, 2014). Arab
Spring was a movement of violent and violence less protests and civil wars started
from Tunis on December 18, 2010 and extended all over the Arab world (Terrill,
2011). It was against the long term despotic rules of the authoritarian rulers,
continuous state of emergency in which Police and the Interior Ministry had
excessive powers to crush the people, unemployment, poverty, inflation, etc.
Social media was used in all countries where there these protests took place to get
the attention of world community. All the regimes which were affected by the
Arab Spring used their powers vehemently to crush the demonstrators and
consequently the peaceful protesters also became violent. The common slogan of
the protesters throughout Arab Spring was “the people want to bring down the
regime” (Aissa, 2012).
Causes of the Arab Spring
Causes of the Arab Spring may be described as following:
1. The economic causes

*
Dr. Abdul QadirMushtaq, Assistant Professor, department of history & Pakistan Studies,
GC University Faisalabad.
**
Muhammad Afzal, Lecturer, department of history & Pakistan Studies, GC University
Faisalabad.
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 JPUHS, Vol.30, No.1, January - June, 2017

Economic causes can be classified into further sub-divisions

i. Role of global crisis
The economic condition of the Middle Eastern and North African countries is
heterogeneous. They are different in their progressive level and economic
structure. The GDP level of oil exporting states is far high from the other countries
of the region. The income of some countries like that of Libya and Algeria is
based upon their oil and gas export while some others’ like Egypt, Morocco and
Tunisia on manufacturing and tourism (Akram, 2011).
Fig.1. GDPpercapita (PPP)in2009(MENA=100)

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2011.

North African states of the region have brought some reforms in their economies
with the support of IMF and World Bank since 1990s (Khalili, Schwedler,
Zartman&Eid, 2011). The public sectors have been privatized in these states and
governmental interference has been decreased in the financial sectors. The
downfall in oil prices during 2008-9 directly affected the oil exporting as well as
other countries of the region badly (Muller &Hubner, 2014). Europe and America,
which used to import manufactured goods from the region, decreased their
demand during the crisis.
ii. Role of Food crisis
The role of food crisis and its high prices in political unrest is historically accepted
especially in poor countries as they have to rely upon some other countries for
food. During 2007-8 the Arab countries like that of Yemen, Morocco, Tunis and
Egypt had to suffer at the hands of public protests due to price increase in food
grains (Ansani& Daniele, 2012). About two years prior to the Arab Spring the
inflation rate reached from 25 to 30 percent in the affected countries (Muller
&Hubner, 2014). The oil producing countries were not the much affected of the
high inflation rate. It was the North African region which was deadly affected by
the high prices because there remains an affiliation between food prices and food
insurrections. This all leads to the political unrest in the region.
iii. Role of Unemployment
Decrease in the manufacturing of different goods during 2010 increased the
unemployment in Morocco, Egypt, and Tunis (Tucker, 2012). According to the
circumstances of the North African region, its unemployment ratio was not much
deteriorating as it was only about 10 percent. Unemployment among the youth,
especially females, was one of the most important causes behind the Arab Spring.
Throughout the world, there is the lowest female labor force contribution in the

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 Arab Spring: Its Causes And Consequences

Arab countries (Barany, 2011). At the eve of the Arab Spring, one out of four
Egyptians and Tunisians young was out of employment. Along with the decrease
in production, the demographic boom was also responsible for increasing
unemployment. This affected badly the North African countries as average age of
the people decreased there. Due to the unemployment among the youth, more than
1/3 of the labor forces consist of young people (The Economist Intelligence Unit,
2011).
Tab.1. Composition of unemployment inNorth Africancountries,2010
Variables Algeria Egypt Morocco Tunisia
Unemployment(t 10.0 8.9 9.1 13.0
otal) c
Unemployment(f 10.1** 22.9* 10.5* ..
emale) d
Youthunemploy 21.5 24.8 17.6 29.4
ment
Youthunemploy .. 47.9** 19.4 ..
ment(female) b
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators and ILO, Statistical update
on Arab states and territories and North African countries,
w May 2011.
2. The social causes
i. The youth bulge, education and democracy
It is the fact that the Middle Eastern and North African states are heterogeneous,
both economically and politically, but there are some common attributes among
them. Demographically the whole region has about 30 percent population of 15 to
29 years therefore the unemployment rate among the youth is high there (A BBC
Report, 2012). The region progressed well in education levels during the last three
decades. This socio-economic situation played an important role in social change
especially towards democratization. History reveals that the Nations rich of youth
do not fear the uprisings, political aggression and civil clashes. The countries
which had young population, had to suffer from civil clashes three times more
than the others which had mature population during 1990s (Terrill, 2011). South
Africa, Costa Rica and Jamaica developed democracies under the youth bulge
(Terrill, 2011). Education is another important factor behind social development
and democratic procedure. Education along with economic development has got
the inner position in the modernization theory of democratization. The increase in
educational level boosts the democratic process. The achievement levels of
education have improved in the Middle Eastern and North African states during
the last three decades (Aissa, 2012). Fig. 2 Educationalattainment
inNorthAfrica1980-2010

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 JPUHS, Vol.30, No.1, January - June, 2017

Note: The figure illustrates the average years of schooling for the population over
25 years old. Data source: Barro and Lee (2010).
ii. Political freedoms and economic inequalities
The popular Arab riots can be described with a political economy point of view by
discussing the social desire of the people for additional political and civil rights.
People and especially youth of the region requested the respective governments to
advance their social and economic circumstances with the resources of education
and employment but it was not listen by the governments and consequently it led
them towards the uprisings.
The MENA States had adopted the policy of privatization of public sectors, trade
liberalization and deregulation to apply structural adjustment procedure
(Soherwordi and Akram, 2011). While the structural reforms have increased the
economic development of the South African states but the middle classes and
majority of youth was not included. It also did not support the political reforms for
ensuring the civil rights of the commons. It just fortified the current authoritarian
governments while blocking the way of democracy. The fundamental human
rights like that of right to vote, liberty, expression and association have been
discouraged through restrictions of continuous emergencies as Tunisia and other
countries declared (Muller &Hubner, 2014).
Information about the economic inequalities of some countries like that of Egypt,
Tunis and Morocco is given below.
Fig.3 Inequalityinincomedistributionin Egypt,MoroccoandTunisia

Note: Income inequality is measured by the ratio between the richest 10 per cent
and the poorest 10 per cent of the population. Source: Povcal Net, World Bank
The rulers of the North African states always enjoyed great facilities. Mubarak in
Egypt, Gaddafi in Libya, and Ben Ali family in Tunisia are the examples (Rozsa,
2012). Armies and the religious leaders of these states exercised vast authority.
Power and wealth of these states was concentrated in a few hands. Lack of fairness
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 Arab Spring: Its Causes And Consequences

and continuation of awkward and unproductive regulation schemes were

encouragements for corruption in market for the approval of exploitation of natural
possessions.
Ind.1 Corruptionperceptionsindex,1998-2010

Note: The corruption perceptions index ranges between 0 and 10. Source:
Transparency International.

iii. The role of social media

During the protests of Arab Spring the governments of respective states tried to
stop the riots by promising protesters to redistribution of possessions but failed. It
occurred in Tunis, Libya and Egypt.
When people watch the activities of others and then decide to do so, the
information cascade arises. Deposition of the rulers occurs through revolution if
majority of people rebel. Spreading of information plays a vital role in riots
therefore the undemocratic governments of the current age censor the information.
The role of internet and social media, such as Facebook and twitter played in Arab
Spring, can be discussed with ‘information cascade’ model (Muller &Hubner,
2014). The role played by the Arab mass media in the Arab Spring is recognized
by a lot of analysts. Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabia were the important television
channels that were responsible for both spreading the information among
insurgents and the transmission of news throughout the world. Mass media
declared the Arab Spring as “social network revolutions” (Tucker, 2012).
Egypt and Tunis are among the uppermost states of the region in which figure of
internet users is elevated (Tucker, 2012). Social networks and internet along with
cell phones played significant role in these states to uphold uprisings. The users of
these social networks circulated the news and videos throughout the world which
prevented the governments of the region to censor the internet and other social
networks. The Egyptian government of Hosni Mubarak suspended the networks
for five days in the areas where riots were erupted (Ansani and Daniele, 2012).
Before the eruption of the riots, Qaddafi government in Libya disconnected the
telephonic communications of the area where protest took place. Despite these all
actions of the governments of the region, mass media played an enormous role to
spread the revolutions throughout the Arab world.

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Tab. 3 Internet and social network penetration in selected Arabcountries, 2011

Countries Internet Twitter
Algeria 13,5 Facebook
5,4 0,04
Egypt 24,3 7,7 0,15
Libya 5,5 1,1 0,96
Morocco 41,3 9,8 0,05
Tunisia 34,1 22,5 0,34
Jordan 26,0 21,3 0,85
Syria 20,4 1,6 0,17
Bahrain 57.1 36,4 7,53
Yemen 10,0 1,4 0,12
World 30,2* 11.5* ..
Note: Data are calculated as a percentage of population. Source: ASRM (2011);
*Data internetworldstats.com referred to 30 June 2011.
iv. Discrimination against Ethnic and Religious Minorities
Prejudice against the ethnic and religious minorities is uncontrolled in the region
and it was one of the most important causes behind the Arab Spring. Different
civilizations and religions are living integrated in the region of Middle East but
sometimes clashes emerge on ethnic and religion bases particularly in the areas
where minorities are considered unimportant. Primarily the Middle East region
consists of Shia and Sunni Muslims overwhelmingly but some other ancient
religions and sects also exist. Alawite in Syria, Druze in Lebanon, Baha’is in Iran
and Copts in Egypt are among the ancient ethnic sects and religions
(Soherwordi&Akram, 2011). Arabs are the major ethnic group of the Middle East
while Turkmens, Armenians, Assyrians and Kurds are in minority. Ethnic
minorities are persecuted in different times in different countries as Kurds and
Turkmens by Saddam Hussein in Iraq, sectarian conflicts of Shia and Sunni in
Iran, Syria and Iraq in the 21st century (Rozsa, 2012). Leaders of some states of
Middle East belong to the minority religious sect due to which they are disliked
among the public. The rulers of Syria and Iraq are the examples. Bashar Al-Assad,
the Syrian President, belongs to Alawite sect to which other Muslims consider un-
Islamic (Tucker, 2012). Gender discrimination was also on the peak in the region.
Women were not given rights properly. The Arab uprising provided an
opportunity to the minorities to air their gripes and to claim for the equivalent
rights. Though, the riots were approximately put in order by the secular and
tolerant forces.
3. Sudden cause; Self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi
All the causes of the Arab spring described above are accurate but these were the
basic grounds and initial causes. The death of Mohamed Bouazizi provided the
sudden base to the inhabitants of a lot of Arab states to go against the despotic
rulers. Mohamed Bouazizi was a street hawker of Tunis. He committed the self-
immolation as a protest on December 17, 2010 when his goods were taken away
and he was humiliated at the hands of a female municipal officer
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 Arab Spring: Its Causes And Consequences

(Soherwordi&Akram, 2011). His suicide became a means for the occurrence of

Tunisian Revolution and widespread Arab Spring. People started protests and riots
against the existing issues in the region. The Tunisians dethroned the long term
President Zane El Abidine Ben Ali on January 14, 2011 who ruled for 23 years
(Ansani and Daniele, 2012).
Consequences of the Arab Spring
It is much difficult to predict the consequences of the Arab Spring both in streets
as well as in polling booths as much of the events are unfolding as yet. Though,
some points can be predicted by keeping in view the long time awakening process
at least politically and diplomatically.
1) Removal of the Authoritarian Rulers from Tunis, Libya, and Egypt
Most of the Middle Eastern countries were being ruled by the authoritarian rulers.
Some of them were in rule since decades. The first and foremost consequence of
the Arab Spring was the removal of these long term autocrats. Some of them also
took the resort of so-called elections to labialize their regimes as democratic but in
reality that were not. Zein El AbidineBen Ali, the President of Tunis, was the first
ruler in Middle East who stepped down under the pressure of Arab Spring. He
remained for about 23 years in power but had to resign on January 14, 2011 as
protests over economic crises increased against him(Ryan, 2011). A state of
emergency was declared in Tunis and then Prime Minister Mohammed
Ghannouchi took over the charge as acting President. Ben Ali left Tunis and went
to Saudi Arabia. After Tunis, Libya was the next state to become the victim of
Arab Spring. Protests rose against the long term elected-cum autocratic President
Muammar al-Qaddafi. Qaddafi was not considered the puppet actor of the West as
other Arab rulers were perceived. He never put aside the national interests for the
sake of foreign powers’ interests. He redistributed the wealth among the
inhabitants of the country along with enriching his own family. As the protests
spread in Libya, he tried to show his autocratic power but the uprisings were
spread throughout the country. His regular military and mercenaries tried to cover
the situation but failed. NATO also attacked the country under the label of saving
the lives of civilians and those who were fighting for democracy against the
autocratic ruler (MacFARQUHAR, 2011). Qaddafi met his disgraceful and
horrible end when NTC and NATO forces found him injured and hiding in a
compound on October 20, 2011 and he died the same day (KAREEM FAHIM,
2011).
The movement which was started from Tunis reached Egypt after Libya. At that
time Egypt was being ruled by President Hosni Mubarak. 25th January was
celebrated as the National Police Day in Egypt and a number of Egyptians
gathered to turn the day into protest one(Asser, 2011). These peaceful people were
directed by the unending corruption, injustice prevailing throughout country,
deteriorated economic conditions, continuous state of emergency, excessive
emergency powers of the Home Ministry and Police and the continuous
authoritarian rule of President Hosni Mubarak from last thirty years(Shenker,
2011). The protest of a small group of demonstrators grew into a national country
wide movement. Mubarak’s attempts to make the protesters agree by appointing
Omer Suleiman as his vice President on 29th January, replacing the old cabinet
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with new one on 31st January, and promising to not to take part in the next
Presidential election along with his son Gamal, failed(KIRKPATRICK, 2011).
Massive demonstrations of February 11 forced Mubarak to resign. The Supreme
Council of Armed Forces led by Tantawi took over the powers and dissolved the
legislature and suspended the constitution later (McGreal& Shenker, 2011).
2) Grant of Political and Social Rights
Keeping in view the fate of Bin Ali, Qadhafi, and Hosni Mubarak, the rulers of
Oman, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Bahrain granted social and economic rights to
their respective citizens. It helped them to avoid their inhabitants to follow the
footsteps of the citizens of Tunis, Libya, and Egypt (Stepan and Linz, 2013). The
deteriorating situation in Syria and Yemen is also the episode of the Arab
Uprisings.
3) Development of Public Political Sphere
At the end it can be concluded that in spite of all its negative aspects, Arab Spring
marked the formation of a public political sphere where common people could
discuss politics at public places and discuss their expected future and effort to
attain democratic transition in Arab world. One of the major triumphs of the Arab
Spring was the birth of the Arab citizen.
4) Impacts on the surrounding states
When the Egyptian long term authoritarian President Hosni Mubarak was
compelled to vacant the post by the occupants of Tahrir Square, the leaders of
Middle Eastern states had to adopt the reactive or proactive approaches. At the
triumph celebrations by Tahrir Square occupants on the removal of Hosni
Mubarak, the leaders of a number of Arab States stated to cope with iron hands to
nip the social turmoil into the bud(Middle East War and Peace Home Page, 2011).
Civil wars started in Yemen, Libya and Syria which shaped the future incidents.
This was the reactive approach. Saudi Arabia and Moroccan leaders adopted the
proactive approach. Saudi Shah, King Abdullah, announced a financial package of
$US36 billion to provide relief to Saudi families to keep them away to become the
part of ongoing Arab social turmoil. It was greeted by local media and other
sectors. Moroccan King Mohamed VI also adopted the proactive approach by
introducing the institutional reforms to adopt the new constitution to structure the
upcoming political and social atmosphere (Khalili, 2011). This led the country
towards the voting for new constitution and parliamentary election.
5) Impacts on Arab League and GCC
The Arab League was also the victim of internal clashes and it played an important
role in Arab Spring. Some members of the Arab League posed a dual standard as
they were supporting the demonstrators against rulers of some states while on the
same time they were supporting the rulers of some states against the protesters.
Gulf Cooperation Council also played its role in Arab upheavals by sending its
forces to save Yemeni President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and then agreed the both
parties to sign the agreement (Abdullah, 2012). Due to the Arab Spring, some
reforms were seen within the GCC.

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 Arab Spring: Its Causes And Consequences

6) International Reactions
The Arab Spring was deliberated as a good attempt towards democracy by the
world. When the protests became more organized, peoples from different countries
had to declare it as the real voices for democracy. Different schools of thought
gave their point of views about the change. The major powers also evaluated the
situation to get the advantage for them. China and Russia had a heavy investment
in oil rich country Libya therefore they had their support with Qaddafi. On the
other hand, US-led NATO forces attacked and killed him to get the trust and
support of opposition (Abdelhadi, 2011). Syria was the only and last client of
Russia in the region. Russia started to support the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to
keep their influence here.
Conclusion
This paper examined the causes of the Arab Uprisings in the Middle Eastern
states. As people of the majority of Middle Eastern states were being ruled by the
long-term authoritarian rulers under the banner of public representatives. The
citizens of these states raised their voices against their autocratic rules through
widespread public protests which led to the removal of Tunisian President Zein El
Abidine Bin Ali, Libyan President Mu’ammar al Qadhafi and Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak. After the removal, Libyan President was attacked by the NATO
forces along with the civilians and resultantly he demised. This paper also
highlights the consequences of these civil clashes and civil uprisings. Tunis was
one of the victim states of Arab Uprisings which succeeded to implement its new
Constitution with common and mutual census. The remaining states could not
fully achieve their desired goals as yet. Thus to conclude, it can be said that Arab
Spring is neither fully successful nor unsuccessful. Much time is required to
predict the accurate results of the Uprisings.

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