Lecture 8 - Six Sigma 2
Lecture 8 - Six Sigma 2
Lecture 8 - Six Sigma 2
Suppliers Customers
Process
Internal/External Internal/External
Transformation
(Creating/ Adding
Value)
Requirements and Feedback Requirements and Feedback
Methods
Procedures
Process rules
X’s Customer requirement Y’s
Inputs Process Outputs
Information Activity
Materials Tasks
People Blending of Inputs
Energy
Tools
Equipment
Start Finish
This problem solving strategy ensures that our pizza company does not spend $900,000 dollars
on a GPS system for it's delivery vehicles when the root cause is not actually "directions".
The Y=f(x) equation is a very powerful concept and requires an ability to measure your output
and quantify your inputs. Measuring process inputs and outputs is crucial to effectively
determining the significant influences to any process.
The Six Sigma methodology walks you through the steps of defining your problem, your goal,
your primary metric. Then, measuring your process, evaluating your measurement system,
determining all possible x's etc.
The Six Sigma approach to problem solving leads you to the identification of the "critical" x's and
from there establishing an improvement plan as well as a means to control & maintain your
improvement. At the core of it all is the philosophy of Y=f(x).
Identify the tru e proc ess and determine the m ostlikely c ontribu tors
including the statistic aldetermination of the ac c u rac y and
repeatability of the data that characterize the process.
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 9
The leverage funnel
A sim ple rand om sam ple is a sample selected in such a way that every
possible sample of the same size is equally likely to be chosen.
Drawing three names from a hat containing all the names of the
students in the class is an example of a simple random sample: any
group of three names is as equally likely as picking any other group
of three names.
VERY EASY TO DEFINE!
VERY, VERY DIFFICULT TO DO!
• Random sample of 100 cokes bottles today at the coke plant.
• Random sample of 50 pine trees in a 1000 acre forest.
• Random sample of 5 deer in a national forest.
If we are studying whether a certain die is fair or weighted, the population would be all
possible tosses of the die
Sam p le Si ze
Numerical techniques for determining sample
sizes will be described later, but suffice it to say
that the larger the sample size is, the more
accurate we can expect the sample estimates to
be.
1. Measures of location
i. Measures of central tendency
ii. Measures of position
2. Measures of dispersion (variation)
• Arithmetic Mean
• Median
• Mode
Arith m e ti
c Me an (Me an)
The arithmetic mean is the most common measure of
the central tendency and is commonly used for
symetrical distributions. It is used to summarize
quantitative data.
n
x i
X i 1
n
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 34
Measures of central tendency
Example:
x x i i
1 3 6 7 2 3 5 27
X i 1
i 1
n 7 7 7
X 3.9 years
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 35
Measures of central tendency
M ed ian
The median is the middle value of the set of data when the
data are ranked in order according to magnitude.
Mode
The mode is the value of x that occurs most frequently.
Data {1,3,7,3,2,3,6,7}
• Mode : 3
Data {1,3,7,3,2,3,6,7,1,1}
• Mode : 1 and 3
Find;
Mean
Median
Mode
3(n 1)
Q3 th
4
50x0.25=12.5gr
Q1=3112.5gr.
25
Second quartile=Median=Q2= 12.5 th obs. is the second
quartile or median. 2
12th obs.=3250gr 13th obs.=3250gr
Q2=3250gr.
3x 25
Third quartile=Q3= 18.75 th obs. is the third quartile
4
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 45
Measures of position
Q3=3675gr.
25% of the infants have birthweights less than 3112,5gr.
Half of the infants have birthweights less than 3250gr.
75%of the infants have birthweights less than 3675 gr.
Range
The range is the simplest measure of dispersion. It is the
difference between the highest valued (H) and the lowest
valued (L) of the observations.
Range= H-L
i
( x ) 2
i 1
N
Pop ulati
on Vari
ance is square of standard deviation.
N
i
( x ) 2
2 i 1
N
i i
2 2 i
( x x ) x
s n
s i 1
or
n 1 n 1
Sam p le Vari ance is square of standard deviation.
n
xi
2
2
( x i x ) xi
2
s 2 i 1 or s2 n
n 1 n 1
Step 1 Step 3 Step 4
x 25
x (xx) (xx)2 Step 2 x 5
n 5
6 1 1
3 -2 4
8
5
3
0
9
0 Step 5 s
2 ( x x ) 2
18
4.5
n 1 4
3 -2 4
25 0 18 s s 2 4.5 2.12
• Histograms
– Similar to frequency diagrams.
• The most notable difference between the two is that on a histogram
the data are grouped into cells. Each cell contains a range of
values.
3.Causation, on the other hand, means that one thing will cause the
other. For example, when you exercise the amount of calories you are
burning per minute will go up, as the former is causing the later.
4.Correlation and causation can happen at the same time. In the
example above about exercising, for example, there’s both correlation
and causation in place.
5.However, having a correlation doesn’t imply that you also have
causation, and this is where most people get confused.
6.For example, there is a positive correlation between the number of
firemen fighting a fire and the size of the fire. However, this doesn’t
mean that bringing more firemen will cause the size of the fire to
increase (this is called reverse causation).
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 61
Scatter Plot
Hours of Weight
exercise in a reduction in xy x2 y2
week (x) lbs (y)
3 2 6 9 4
5 4 20 25 16
10 6 60 100 36
15 8 120 225 64
2 1 2 4 1
3 3 9 9 9
∑x = 38 ∑y = 24 ∑xy =217 ∑x2= 372 ∑y2= 130
r = 0.972
The value of r shows that there is a strong correlation
between hours of Exercise and weight loss.
The closer the points are to the line, the better the fit and the
prediction will be.
Where,
or, a = y – b x
1 8 1 8 64
2 6 4 12 36
3 10 9 30 100
4 6 16 24 36
5 10 25 50 100
6 13 36 78 169
7 9 49 63 81
8 11 64 88 121
∑x = 36 ∑y = 73 ∑x2= 204 ∑xy =353 ∑y2= 707
X = 4.5 Y = 9.125
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 70
Simple Regression Equation: Example
y = a + bx y = 6.5 + 0.5833 x
Since, slope (b) of the equation is positive, there is evidence that the
number of complaints increase over time