Drawback of WACC
Drawback of WACC
Sebastian Lobe*
University of Regensburg
Abstract
In Discounted Cash Flow valuations, the WACC approach is very popular. Therefore,
knowing which limitations the concept inherits is essential. The objective of this paper
is thus twofold: First, it is clarified that a constant WACC rate must fail if the implied
leverage ratio is time-varying. This seems to be the rationale for defining a nonlinear
further amplified in this paper, it must be emphasized that this approach is, even then,
applicable only under specific conditions while a time-varying WACC is still able to
provide reliable results. In conclusion, the WACC approach is a valid workhorse whose
Keywords: WACC; Cost of Capital; Discount rate; Financial structure; Tax shield
* Center of Finance, Chair of Financial Services, University of Regensburg. Universitätsstraße 31, 93053
Regensburg, Germany. E-mail [email protected], phone +49 941 943 2727, fax
+49 941 943 4979.
financial literature over the last years. Fernandez (2004) initiated a provocative
discussion claiming that the value of tax shields is not equal to the present value of tax
shields. This claim is indeed provocative as it implies inter alia that the principle of
value additivity is not working and that the seminal propositions of Modigliani and
Miller are flawed. The subsequent discussion led in several journals revealed that the
claim was not well substantiated. For example, Arzac and Glosten (2005) reconsider
tax shield valuation looking at a value-based debt policy in the spirit of Miles and
Ezzell (1980), and prove the validity of the respective valuation formula. Comments to
Fernandez (2004) are given in a comparable vein also by Fieten et al. (2005), Cooper
The advanced textbook by Kruschwitz and Löffler (2006) offers a rigorous and
insights. Cooper and Nyborg (2008) analyze the case of tax-adjusted discount rates with
Ruback (2002) advocates the Capital Cash Flows methodology as a simple approach to
incorporate the value of the debt tax shield in valuation formulae. His methodology is
founded on a value-based debt policy. Booth (2007) makes the case that the Capital
Cash Flows and the Adjusted Present Value methodology is not easy to handle in
specific valuation scenarios while the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is a
For valuing companies or projects, WACC is the dominant Discounted Cash Flow
approach in practice. The idea of this long-lived concept is that the total market value
(debt and equity) is calculated by discounting the unlevered cash flows with the
WACC = w d rd (1 − t) + w e re (1)
Recent survey evidence from the US, UK, and Germany supports the WACC’s
dominance in practice.[2] Three reasons could support this success: First, the input
parameters are rather easily estimated from market data. Second, applying WACC does
not require a commitment to judge how risky debt tax shields are. In other words, the
debt policy does not have to be specified. This is not an appealing constellation as it is
unknown how much the debt tax shield contributes to the company value. However,
given today’s knowledge, only a vague idea exists which debt policies companies
actually apply. Therefore, putting a valid value on the debt tax shield given these
estimation problems is not such an easy task. Third, the WACC is computationally
WACC also has its known shortcomings. It implies by definition that a periodic
rebalancing of debt takes place to maintain the capital structure set forth in the WACC
to evaluate the validity of his assertion that WACC is not quite right, and to examine
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In section 2, the newly introduced
NLWACC is motivated and applied. Also, the NLWACC is generalized to allow for
annuities with growth rates g ≠ 0%. In section 3, the concept of the NLWACC will be
revisited from the perspective of rebalancing the capital structure using WACC before
taxes. The merits of WACC and NLWACC are discussed. Taxes being crucial in this
context as shown in the seminal work by Modigliani and Miller (1958), section 4
2
analyzes the after tax-case. Finally, section 5 summarizes shortly the findings and
offers an outlook.
1) Looking at a levered project with given outlays IC0, cost of capital WACC, and
duration N, which break-even unlevered cash flows CF has the project to deliver to be
acceptable? Financial acceptance is measured with the net present value NPV. To
derive a unique solution for this question, an annuity structure (allowing for geometric
growth) is imposed:[3]
⎡ (1 + g) N ⎤
⎢
CF 1 − ⎥
⎢⎣ (1 + WACC) N ⎦⎥ IC ⋅ (WACC − g)
NPV = 0 = −IC0 + ⇔ CF = 0 (2)
WACC − g (1 + g) N
1−
(1 + WACC) N
Adopting the numerical example of Miller (2007) which assumes g = 0%, IC0 =
= 8, leads to
This threshold operating cash flow CF belongs to the shareholders and bondholders of
the company.
2) Having performed this exercise Miller (2007) further asks what the equivalent
annuity for shareholders CFe and bondholders CFd is? Equivalence here again is
3
achieved by equating the NPV with zero at time T = 0 respectively. This leads in
Obviously, the sum of both annuities differs from the annuity of the sum of both flows:
CF( $38,247.23)
3) Discounting the sum of both annuities ($38,247.23) with the textbook WACC of
10.5% will overestimate the project value in this numerical example.[4] To overcome
this misvaluation, Miller (2007) suggests discounting this cash flow with a modified
version of the WACC dubbing it NLWACC (nonlinear WACC). This modified WACC
r −g w e (re − g) w d (rd − g)
= + (3)
(1 + g) N (1 + g) N (1 + g) N
1− 1− 1−
(1 + r) N (1 + re ) N (1 + rd ) N
In the numerical example with g = 0%, interpolating for r yields according to Eq. (3):
=0.191236
⎡ (1 + g) N ⎤
CF ⎢1 − ⎥
⎢⎣ (1 + r) N ⎥⎦ $38,247.23 ⎡1 − (1 + 0.105553) −8 ⎤
NPV = −IC0 + = −$200, 000 + ⎣⎢ ⎦⎥ ≈ $0
r−g 0.105553
4
The final deduction of Miller (2007) is that WACC is more or less flawed and that
NLWACC is needed.
In the following section 3, I put the NLWACC in perspective using the initial example.
The analysis reveals why a traditional WACC can not work in this scenario. Also, I
show how the challenger, the NLWACC, can be interpreted, and I demonstrate that the
First, it is helpful to remember that in this before tax-setting and under the assumptions
set forth by Modigliani and Miller (1958) the capital structure irrelevance theorems
hold. (To be absolutely clear, the just mentioned Nobel Prize laureate Merton H. Miller
is not to be confused with Richard A. Miller who proposed NLWACC.) This implies
that no additional value can be created while dividing the financing funds in a different
manner. In other words, the weighted average cost of capital equal the unlevered cost of
straightforward and commonly applied definition incurs the total return RT in period
T[6]
DT + VT − VT −1
RT = , (4)
VT −1
where DT are inflows/outflows in period T (dividends, etc.), and VT is the market value
at the end of period T. The total return R can be defined as a return for shareholders of
levered (unlevered) projects re (ru), bondholders rd and for both claimholders combined
as WACC. WACC with time-varying input parameters can be written down more
5
One of the constituent characteristics of the WACC concept is that returns to
shareholders and bondholders are weighted with their respective market value weights
Vd,T-1
of the prior period: w d,T-1 = , and w e,T-1 = 1 − w d,T-1 . It is important to
Ve,T-1 + Vd,T-1
emphasize that the definition of WACC is based on market, and not on book value
implies ceteris paribus a constant relative capital structure over time. This is
demonstrated for the initial example in Panel A of Table 1 showing the expected levels
cash flows to shareholders and bondholders over the life of the project in Panel B. The
results reveal two remarkable points: First, the cash flow when divided between
bondholders and shareholders is sufficient to pay each group its necessary cash flow.
Discounting these cash flows with their respective returns leads to their implied market
values. Second, both flows do not conform to an annuity. In fact, the equity cash flows
decrease while the debt cash flows increase over time. Therefore, forcing the cash flows
6
Table 1: Scenario I (before taxes)
Panel A: Total market value, equity market and debt market value over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFT (in $) 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86
VT (in $) 200,000.00 182,826.17 163,849.06 142,879.35 119,707.82 94,103.28 65,810.26 34,546.48 0.00
Ve,T (in $) 150,000.00 137,119.63 122,886.79 107,159.51 89,780.86 70,577.46 49,357.70 25,909.86 0.00
Vd,T (in $) 50,000.00 45,706.54 40,962.26 35,719.84 29,926.95 23,525.82 16,452.57 8,636.62 0.00
we 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 -
wd 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 -
CFT is the aggregated cash flow to shareholders and bondholders during the period T. VT is the total market value (debt and equity, Vd,T + Ve,T) at date T. Ve,T is the equity
market value (we⋅VT) at date T, and Vd,T is the debt market value (wd⋅VT) at date T. No taxes t = 0, WACC = ru = wd⋅rd + we⋅re = 0.25⋅0.06 + 0.75⋅0.12 = 0.105, and N = 8.
VT is the present value of CFT given WACC. we is the equity weight (equity/total value), and wd is the debt weight (debt/total value). The weights are constant over time.
Panel B: Implied cash flows to shareholders and bondholders over the life cycle of the project
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFe,T (in $) 30,880.40 30,687.19 30,473.70 30,237.79 29,977.11 29,689.06 29,370.76 29,019.04
CFd,T (in $) 7,293.46 7,486.67 7,700.16 7,936.07 8,196.75 8,484.80 8,803.10 9,154.82
CFT (in $) 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86 38,173.86
CFe,T is the implied cash flow to shareholders during the period T: CFe,T = CFT – CFd,T. CFd,T is the implied cash flow to bondholders during the period T based on Panel A:
CFd,T = Vd,T-1⋅rd + (Vd,T-1 – Vd,T). The aggregated cash flow to shareholders and bondholders during the period T is CFT = CFe,T + CFd,T. Discounting these flows at re = 0.12
for CFe,T, and rd = 0.06 for CFd,T leads to the same values of Ve,T and Vd,T as in Panel A.
7
Table 2: Scenario II (before taxes)
Panel A: Annuity cash flows, and implied market values over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFe,T (in $) 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43
CFd,T (in $) 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80
Ve,T (in $) 150,000.00 137,804.59 124,145.71 108,847.77 91,714.07 72,524.33 51,031.82 26,960.21 0.00
Vd,T (in $) 50,000.00 44,948.22 39,593.31 33,917.11 27,900.34 21,522.56 14,762.11 7,596.04 0.00
VT (in $) 200,000.00 182,752.81 163,739.02 142,764.88 119,614.41 94,046.89 65,793.93 34,556.24 0.00
CFe,T and CFd,T is the annuity cash flow to shareholders and bondholders, respectively. The implied equity market value Ve,T at date T is the present value given CFe,T and
re = 0.12. The implied debt market value Vd,T at date T is the present value given CFd,T and rd = 0.06. VT is the total market value of debt and equity (Vd,T + Ve,T) at date T.
Panel B: Implied capital structure ratios and returns over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
we,T 0.750 0.754 0.758 0.762 0.767 0.771 0.776 0.780 -
wd,T 0.250 0.246 0.242 0.238 0.233 0.229 0.224 0.220 -
WACCT = ru,T 0.10500 0.10524 0.10549 0.10575 0.10600 0.10627 0.10654 0.10681
we,T is the time-varying equity weight (equity/total value), and wd,T is the time-varying debt weight (debt/total value) based on Panel A. The time-varying WACCT is
computed via Eq. (5) as WACCT = wd,T-1⋅rd + we,T-1⋅re = wd,T-1⋅0.06 + we,T-1⋅0.12, and is confirmed by Eq. (6) calculating ru,T. Applying Eq. (7), the total market values of
Panel A are confirmed by discounting CFT (= CFe,T + CFd,T) with WACCT
8
Panel A of Table 2 now shows that market values (i.e., Ve,T, Vd,T, and VT) are identical
with market values given in Panel A of Table 1 only at T = 0. At other valuation dates
T, the values differ, hence exhibiting a different scenario than scenario I considered in
Panel B of Table 2 analyzes the capital structure ratios over time in scenario II and
highlights several implications for the returns. First, the debt ratio is expected to shrink
over time. Appendix B shows that under plausible conditions this is generally true. It is
only the same as in Panel A of Table 1 at T = 0. Second, this observation has an impact
on the WACC returns according to Eq. (5). Under plausible conditions, WACC
increases over time. Third, because the return to equity is supposed to be constant in
this valuation exercise a very specific behaviour of the operating returns over time is
implied when the capital structure is changing. Building on the (Modigliani and Miller,
1958) proposition 2, Eq. (6) postulates that the operating return ru,T is expected to
w d,T −1
re + rd
w d,T −1 w e,T −1
re = ru,T + (ru,T − rd ) ⇔ ru,T = (6)
w e,T −1 w
1 + d,T −1
w e,T −1
This built-in feature seems not very appealing. Confirming the irrelevance theorem
Panel B of Table 2 also explains why discounting with a time-constant WACC has to
fail. The WACC is simply time-varying in scenario II. Textbooks usually do not
emphasize that the WACC can also be time-varying.[8] However, the use of a time-
WACC points at a changing capital structure over time. The NLWACC does not
9
provide this information. Thus, discounting debt and equity annuity cash flows
Table 2.
CFT
Vτ−1 = ∑ T =τ
N
(7)
∏ (1 + WACC )
N
j=τ j
How can the modified WACC which was employed in section 2 be interpreted now?
Instead of using time-varying WACCs, the NLWACC allows to calculate the present
value at T = 0
and
constant equity return over time (as in the no tax-case shown by Eq. (6)).
time-varying returns into one discount rate, as typically is the case with internal rate of
return procedures. This limits its economic interpretation. If one wants to use
NLWACC also for prospective valuation at dates T > 0, it has to be updated, that is, N
in Eq. (3) has to be updated. The conditions set forth in scenario II are rather limiting
(even when allowing for g ≠ 0%) and only then the use of NLWACC is admissible.
Clearly, the NLWACC does not help in situations where cash flows are not annuities. A
time-varying WACC does not share these limitations. Its use leads to consistent results.
However, it is not clear why under scenario II the flow to equity approach is not used
instead. This would be the natural choice. The NLWACC (and WACC) seem like a
detour.
Under scenario I, WACC is definitely the right choice, and even under scenario II a
time-varying WACC (keeping the linear structure), solves the problem as does the
10
NLWACC. WACC obviously is a technique better able to handle more general
Modigliani and Miller (1958) have shown in their seminal work that without taxes the
WACC concept does not render any additional insights in comparison to the unlevered
cost of capital. The after tax-WACC is covered lengthy in Miller's (2007) paper. Thus,
structure over time. The after tax-annuity now is $37,488.80. This is demonstrated for
the initial example in Panel A of Table 3 showing the expected levels of equity and
cash flows to shareholders and bondholders over the life of the project in Panel B. The
results again reveal that actually both flows do not conform to an annuity. In fact, the
equity cash flows decrease while the debt cash flows increase over time. Therefore,
forcing the cash flows to shareholders and bondholders to be annuities portrays a rather
provided in Panel C. As is well known, the operating value (unlevered value) Vu and
the value of the debt tax shield Vt are valued separately. Unlike in the no tax-case, it is
now important to specify which financing policy is pursued. Different debt tax policies
11
Table 3: Scenario I (after taxes)
Panel A: Total market value, equity market and debt market value over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFT (in $) 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80
VT (in $) 200,000.00 182,511.18 163,273.50 142,112.05 118,834.45 93,229.10 65,063.21 34,080.73 0.00
Ve,T (in $) 150,000.00 136,883.38 122,455.12 106,584.04 89,125.84 69,921.82 48,797.40 25,560.55 0.00
Vd,T (in $) 50,000.00 45,627.79 40,818.37 35,528.01 29,708.61 23,307.27 16,265.80 8,520.18 0.00
we 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 -
wd 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 -
CFT is the unlevered cash flow during period T. VT is the total market value (debt and equity, Vd,T + Ve,T) at date T. Ve,T is the equity market value (we⋅VT) at date T. Vd,T is the debt
market value (wd⋅VT) at date T. Taxes are considered with t = 0.3333, WACC = wd⋅rd⋅(1-t) + we⋅re = 0.25⋅0.06⋅0.6667 + 0.75⋅0.12 = 0.10, and N = 8. VT is the present value of CFT
given WACC at date T. we is the equity weight (equity/total value), and wd is the debt weight (debt/total value). The weights are constant over time.
Panel B: Implied cash flows to shareholders and bondholders over the life cycle of the project
T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFd,T (in $) 7,372.20 7,547.09 7,739.47 7,951.08 8,183.86 8,439.91 8,721.57 9,031.39
Vd,T-1⋅rd⋅(1-t) + (Vd,T-1 – Vd,T) (in $) 6,372.20 6,634.53 6,923.10 7,240.52 7,589.68 7,973.76 8,396.25 8,860.99
CFe,T (in $) 31,116.60 30,854.27 30,565.70 30,248.28 29,899.12 29,515.04 29,092.55 28,627.81
CFT (in $) 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80 37,488.80
CFd,T is the implied cash flow to bondholders during the period T based on Panel A: CFd,T = Vd,T-1 rd + (Vd,T-1 – Vd,T). To compute the unlevered cash flow CFT Vd,T-1⋅rd⋅(1-t) + (Vd,T-1 –
Vd,T) and CFe,T is needed. CFe,T is the implied cash flow to shareholders during the period T: CFe,T = CFT – CFd,T. Discounting CFe,T with re = 0.12 leads to Ve,T, and discounting CFd,T
with rd = 0.06 leads to Vd,T.
Panel C: Adjusted Present Value and market values over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Vu,T (in $) 196,260.03 179,420.39 160,809.00 140,239.44 117,505.69 92,380.04 64,610.85 33,919.97 0.00
Vd,T-1⋅rd⋅t (in $) 1,000.00 912.56 816.37 710.56 594.17 466.15 325.32 170.40
Vt,T (in $) 3,739.95 3,090.79 2,464.50 1,872.61 1,328.77 849.05 452.36 160.76 0.00
VT = Vu,T + Vt,T (in $) 200,000.00 182,511.18 163,273.50 142,112.05 118,834.45 93,229.10 65,063.21 34,080.73 0.00
For illustration purposes a value-based debt policy is assumed. The unlevered firm value Vu,T is computed by discounting CFT based on Eq. (9) with a time-constant ru = 0.10521
according to Eq. (8) . The debt tax shield Vd,T-1⋅rd⋅t is discounted with ru and rd to arrive at the value of the debt tax shield Vt,T according to Eq. (10). VT is the total market value (Vu,T +
Vt,T) at date T.
12
Table 4: Scenario II (after taxes)
Panel A: Annuity cash flows, and implied market values over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFe,T (in $) 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43 30,195.43
CFd,T (in $) 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80 8,051.80
Ve,T (in $) 150,000.00 137,804.59 124,145.71 108,847.77 91,714.07 72,524.33 51,031.82 26,960.21 0.00
Vd,T (in $) 50,000.00 44,948.20 39,593.30 33,917.10 27,900.33 21,522.55 14,762.11 7,596.04 0.00
VT (in $) 200,000.00 182,752.79 163,739.01 142,764.87 119,614.40 94,046.88 65,793.92 34,556.24 0.00
CFe,T and CFd,T is the annuity cash flow to shareholders and bondholders, respectively. The implied equity market value Ve,T at date T is the present value given CFe,T and re = 0.12. The
implied debt market value Vd,T at date T is the present value given CFd,T and rd = 0.06. VT is the total market value of debt and equity (Vd,T + Ve,T) at date T.
Panel B: Implied capital structure ratios and returns over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
we,T 0.750 0.754 0.758 0.762 0.767 0.771 0.776 0.780 -
wd,T 0.250 0.246 0.242 0.238 0.233 0.229 0.224 0.220 -
WACCT 0.10000 0.10032 0.10066 0.10099 0.10134 0.10169 0.10205 0.10242
ru,T 0.10521 0.10545 0.10570 0.10595 0.10621 0.10647 0.10674 0.10701
we,T is the time-varying equity weight (equity/total value), and wd,T is the time-varying debt weight (debt/total value) based on the results of Panel A. The time-varying WACCT is
computed with Eq. (5) as WACCT = wd,T-1⋅rd⋅(1-t) + we,T-1⋅re = wd,T-1⋅0.06⋅0.6667 + we,T-1⋅0.12. The implied unlevered cost of capital ru,T is calculated for illustration purposes in line
with a value-based debt policy according to Eq. (8).
Panel C: Adjusted Present Value and market values over the life cycle of the project
T 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFT (in $) 37,247.33 37,348.35 37,455.44 37,568.95 37,689.28 37,816.82 37,952.01 38,095.32
Vu,T (in $) 196,383.29 179,798.09 161,410.14 141,015.75 118,387.64 93,272.10 65,385.93 34,412.93 0.00
Vd,T-1⋅rd⋅t (in $) 999.90 898.87 791.79 678.27 557.95 430.41 295.21 151.91
Vt,T (in $) 3,616.73 2,954.71 2,328.87 1,749.11 1,226.76 774.78 407.99 143.31 0.00
VT = Vu,T + Vt,T (in $) 200,000.00 182,752.79 163,739.01 142,764.87 119,614.40 94,046.88 65,793.92 34,556.24 0.00
CFT is the unlevered cash flow during period T computed as CFT = CFe,T + Vd,T-1⋅rd⋅(1-t) + (Vd,T-1 – Vd,T); see Panel A, rd = 0.06, t = 0.3333. The unlevered value Vu,T is computed
according to Eq. (9) with ru,T. The debt tax shields Vd,T-1⋅rd⋅t are discounted according to Eq. (10) with ru,T and rd to arrive at the value of the debt tax shield Vt,T. VT is the total market
value (Vu,T + Vt,T) at date T.
13
Miles and Ezzell (1980) and Kruschwitz and Löffler (2006) show for this policy:
⎛ rt ⎞ w
re + rd ⋅ ⎜1 − d ⎟ ⋅ d,T-1
⎛
re = ru,T + ( ru,T − rd ) ⋅ ⎜1 − d
rt ⎞ w d,T-1 ⎝ 1 + rd ⎠ w e,T-1
⎟⋅ ⇔ ru,T = (8)
⎝ 1 + rd ⎠ w e,T-1 ⎛ rt ⎞ w
1 + ⎜1 − d ⎟ ⋅ d,T-1
⎝ 1 + rd ⎠ w e,T-1
The unlevered value is computed with the unlevered cost of capital as follows:
CFT
Vu,τ−1 = ∑ T =τ
N
(9)
∏ j=τ (1 + ru, j )
N
CFT
Vu,τ−1 = ∑ T =τ
N
.
(1 + ru )
T −τ+1
The value of the debt tax shield is risky given this financing policy, and is therefore
discounted with the unlevered cost of equity apart from the cash flow of the previous
Vd,T-1 ⋅ rd ⋅ t
Vt,τ−1 = ∑ T =τ
N
(10)
∏ (1 + r ) (1 + r )
N −1
j=τ u, j d
Vd,T-1 ⋅ rd ⋅ t
Simplifying with a time-constant ru leads to Vt,τ−1 = ∑ T =τ
N
.
(1 + ru ) (1 + rd )
T −τ
The APV approach confirms the consistency of the calculation in Panel C of Table 3.
To arrive at the equity value, the value of debt has to be subtracted from the total
Under scenario II (forced annuity structure) Panel A of Table 4 exhibits that market
values are identical with market values given in Panel A of Table 3 only at T = 0.[10]
For other valuation dates T, values are different, hence exhibiting a different scenario
14
Panel B of Table 4 analyzes the capital structure ratios over time in scenario II and
highlights several implications for the returns. First, the debt ratio is expected to shrink
over time again. It is only the same as in Panel A of Table 3 at T = 0. Second, this
observation has an impact on the WACC returns according to Eq. (5). WACC increases
over time. Third, because in this valuation exercise the return to equity is supposed to
be constant a very specific behaviour of the operating returns over time is implied when
the capital structure is changing. The unlevered cost of equity increases over time.
Again, this built-in feature seems not very appealing. Panel B of Table 4 also explains
why discounting with a time-constant WACC has to fail. WACC is simply time-
varying in scenario II. The NLWACC does not provide any information about the
changing capital structure. Thus, discounting unlevered cash flows with time-varying
WACCs leads to results consistent with Panel A of Table 4. The arguments already
claim that in the tax-case the integration of the interest tax shield in the WACC formula
seems misplaced does not have to be followed. The time-varying WACC approach
proves this fact. The APV calculation in Panel C of Table 4 confirms that operating
returns are time-varying, indeed, and also confirms the results of Panel A and B. For
example, the value of the debt tax shield at the beginning of period 6 is calculated based
295.21 151.91
Vt,6 = + = 407.99 .
1.06 1.10674 ⋅1.06
The analysis underlines that in the tax-case the situation is not getting any better for the
15
5. Summary and outlook
The claim that the NLWACC is conceptually superior to a constant WACC seems for
2) Given the special valuation scenario for which the NLWACC is motivated, the flow
Therefore, the foundations of WACC are sound. However, valuation is still a field
which has many promising research questions to offer. Just to name a few: Which debt
policies can be empirically supported? Given its autarkic nature, this is a question the
WACC does not necessarily have to approach. How do more realistic tax regimes with
personal taxes influence tax shield valuation? Which terminal value calculations are
plausible? These and others seem to be more pressing questions which deserve further
16
Appendix A: Derivation of time-varying WACC
al. (2008), p. 533. Starting with the value in the next to last period: VN-1 = Ve,N-1 + Vd,N-1 .
The total cash flow to debt and equity investors is the cash flow CF plus the interest tax
shield: CFN + t ⋅ rd,N ⋅ Vd,N −1 . This total cash flow can also be written based on returns:
⎛ Vd,N-1 Ve,N-1 ⎞
VN −1 ⎜1 + rd,N
⎜
+ re,N ⎟ = VN −1 (1 + rd,N w d,N-1 + re,N w e,N-1 )
⎝ Ve,N-1 + Vd,N-1 Ve,N-1 + Vd,N-1 ⎟⎠
CFN CFN
VN −1 = =
1 + rd,N (1 − t)w d,N-1 + re,N w e,N-1 1 + WACC N
The WACC-definition of Eq. (5) shows up. This can be repeated for VN-2. As the
return-definition is based on Eq. (4) the next period’s payoff includes VN-1:
CFN −1 + VN −1 CFN −1 + VN −1
VN − 2 = =
1 + rd,N −1 (1 − t)w d,N-2 + re,N −1w e,N-2 1 + WACC N −1
CFN −1 CFN
= +
1 + WACC N −1 (1 + WACC N −1 )(1 + WACC N )
CFT
Vτ−1 = ∑ T =τ
N
(7)
∏ (1 + WACC )
N
j=τ j
17
Appendix B: Is the debt to total market value ratio falling over time?
To show the conditions for this relationship, I compare growth rates of debt and equity
Ve,T − Ve,T −1
market value, e.g. the equity growth rate is: g T (Ve ) = . If debt is not
Ve,T −1
growing as strong as equity, the debt ratio has to shrink. Inserting Eq. (2) yields the
⎡ (1 + g) N − T ⎤ ⎡ (1 + g) N − T + 1 ⎤
CFe ⎢1 − ⎥ CFe ⎢1 − ⎥ N −T
⎢⎣ (1 + re ) N − T ⎥⎦ ⎢⎣ (1 + re ) N − T + 1 ⎥⎦ ⎡1+ g ⎤
− 1− ⎢ ⎥
g T (Ve ) =
re − g re − g
= ⎣1 + re ⎦
N −T+1 − 1
⎡ (1 + g) N − T + 1 ⎤ ⎡1+ g ⎤
CFe ⎢1 − ⎥ 1− ⎢ ⎥
⎢⎣ (1 + re ) N − T + 1 ⎥⎦ ⎣1 + re ⎦
re − g
⎡1+ g ⎤
1− ⎢ ⎥
g T (Vd ) = ⎣1 + rd ⎦
N −T +1 − 1
⎡1+ g ⎤
1− ⎢ ⎥
⎣1 + rd ⎦
Under realistic conditions ( rd < re ) equity growth rates are higher than debt growth
18
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21
Endnotes
[1] For ease of exposition the notation of Miller (2007) is adopted. Expectation operators are therefore also dropped.
[2]For the US, see Bruner, Eades, Harris, & Higgins (1998), and Graham, & Harvey (2001), for the UK, see Arnold,
& Hatzopoulos (2000), and for Germany, see Lobe, Niermeier, Essler, & Röder (2008).
[3] The following geometric series is evaluated: CF = CF1, CF (1+g) = CF2, … , CF (1+g)N-1 = CFN.
[4] The present value then is $200,384.42 which is marginally higher than the true present value of $200,000.
[5] See (Miller, 2007), p. 8, Eq. (23) for g = 0%. The derivation incorporating g is straightforward, and thus needs
[8] See, for example, (Brealey et al., 2008), (Copeland et al., 2005), (Daves et al., 2004), (Lundholm and Sloan,
2004), (Stowe et al., 2007), (Titman and Martin, 2008), (Koller et al., 2005).
[10] Panel A of Table 4 is identical with Panel A of Table 2. Therefore, also the weights in Panel B of Tables 2 and
4 are the same. The returns are different, of course, as different tax situations are considered in Table 2 and 4.
22