Forbes Georgia in English - N21
Forbes Georgia in English - N21
Forbes Georgia in English - N21
p. 50
2 | FORBES JUNE 2021
CONTENTS
Forbes English #21 // June 2021
LEADERBOARD
RATINGS
8 2020 Rating of Insurance
Companies
CEO
p. 24
MANAGEMENT
p. 56 82 US Inflation:
Set for Take-off?
by Laurence Ball, Gita Gopinath,
Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra, Antonio
Spilimbergo
88 Bitcoin Electricity
Consumption
6 | FORBES JUNE 2021
CONTENTS
Forbes English #21 // June 2021
General Counsel
Web Editor: Davit Tsiramua
MariaRosa Cartolano
Forbes Georgia is published by
Founded in 1917
Media Partners JSC
B.C. Forbes, Editor-in-Chief (1917-54)
Malcolm S. Forbes, Editor-in-Chief (1954-90)
Publisher: Maia Mirijanashvili
James W. Michaels, Editor (1961-99) William
Baldwin, Editor (1999-2010)
Advertising and Marketing: Leli Mirijanashvili
D
espite the 2020 economic crisis, the Georgian insur- GEL 116.7 million in premiums. This represents an increase of GEL
ance market managed to grow. During the past year, 4.6 million compared to 2019. As of 31stDecember 2020, there
the eighteen insurance companies operating in Geor- were 93,000 insured vehicles in Georgia, meaning that only 6%
gia collected a total of GEL 667 million in premiums, of the total car fleet is insured. The average monthly insurance
representing a year-on-year increase of GEL 42.3 million, or 7%. premium is GEL 104 per vehicle. The third-largest segment is
The sector registered a net profit of GEL 47.6 million, representing property insurance, with companies collecting GEL 108 million
an increase of 89% compared to 2019. in premiums. The property insurance segment grew by GEL 19.8
In terms of individual segments, health insurance remains the million in 2020.
most lucrative area of the insurance sector. Health insurance com- In 2020, GPI Holding held the leading position among the eigh-
panies collected a total of GEL 267.6 million in premiums, exceed- teen insurance companies operating in Georgia with GEL 128.9
ing the 2019 figure by GEL 33.6 million. As of 31st December 2020, million in collected premiums. Second place was held by Aldagi
17% of the Georgian population (620,000 people) had private with GEL 106.9 million, and third place was held by TBC Insurance
health insurance. The average monthly health insurance premium with GEL 89.3 million in collected premiums. According to their
paid by consumers or their employers in 2020 was GEL 36. financial statements, half of the insurance companies registered
Car insurance is the second-largest segment, accounting for growth in 2020, while the other half registered losses.
128,900,000 GEL
GPI
106,900,000 GEL
106,900,000 GEL
Aldagi
99,500,000 GEL
98,300,000 GEL
TBC Insurance
81,300,000 GEL
71,700,000 GEL
Imedi L
84,200,000 GEL
59,600,000 GEL
Ardi
54,000,000 GEL
42,100,000 GEL
Unison
36,000,000 GEL
38,500,000 GEL
Irao
35,500,000 GEL
24,400,000 GEL
PSP Insurance
21,600,000 GEL
23,600,000 GEL
Euroins
16,200,000 GEL
17,000,000 GEL
Benefits
19,800,000 GEL
16,900,000 GEL
Alfa
21,200,000 GEL
11,600,000 GEL
Insurance Group
8,800,000 GEL
8,400,000 GEL
Prime
9,100,000 GEL
8,300,000 GEL
Cartu Insurance
10,700,000 GEL
7,700,000 GEL
Hualing Insurance
10,000,000 GEL
5,000,000 GEL
Tao
6,800,000 GEL
2,700,000 GEL
Green Insurance
3,200,000 GEL
2020 2019
BY OMRI WALLACH
Unsurprisingly, celebrities reign supreme on social media. As of April 2021, soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo was the most-
followed person on social media with more than 500 million total followers.
But there are other illuminating highlights, such as the global reach of music. With large and diverse fanbases, artists account for
half of the top 50 largest social media followings.
Also notable is the power of Instagram, which was the biggest platform for 67% of the top 50 social media influencers. This in-
cludes hard-to-categorize celebrities like the Kardashians and Jenners, which turned reality TV and social media fame into business
and media empires
The average age of the top 50 influencers was just over 37.
In our Generational Power Index (GPI), which measures the share of power generations hold in various categories, digital plat-
forms were a key area where Millennials derived their power and influence. Overall, Baby Boomers—and to a lesser extent, Gen X—
still run the show in most areas of society today.
BY ARAN ALI
The U.S. isn’t labeled as a global superpower for nothing. The country is by far the largest military spender, and its $778 billion
budget trumps the remainder of the list’s collective $703.6 billion. On its own, the U.S. represents just under 40% of global military
spending.
This year, Saudi Arabia has lost out on a top five seat to the UK, after a 7.1% decline in spending compared to a 21.5% increase for
the UK.
When looking at things this way, many of the top spenders above do not appear. This may be an indication of their economic
prowess or a demonstration that the money might be used for other vital areas such as education, healthcare, or infrastructure
Although a major war hasn’t occurred in some time, it’s not to say the geopolitical mood hasn’t been tense.
The last 12 months or so have witnessed some nail-biting moments including: Border disputes between China and
India•Heightening tensions between China and Taiwan•Russia’s military presence in eastern Ukraine•The hacking of SolarWinds, a
Texas-based company, by Russia•The ongoing Yemen crisis•An Israel-Iran feud
Will 2021 extend the trend of peace, or will rising military spending mean even higher tensions?
INFLATION RISK
AS THE GLOBAL VACCINE ROLLOUT Rampant monetary easing by global central banks
continues and the post pandemic economic recovery to aid the global recovery from COVID-19 is spurring
gets closer, the global market narrative about rising economic activity while debasing fiat currencies. The
inflation and the risk of the U.S. economy overheat- rising prices of gold and bitcoin are visible indications
ing has become more mainstream. Bank of America of this, as investors seek to hedge their portfolios
recently created headlines with its warning about the against inflation.
risk of transitory hyperinflation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated last
As stewards of capital and investment portfolios, week that if President Biden’s multi trillion-dollar
the most important question fund managers face to- spending plans are enacted by Congress, “it may be
day is whether the 40-year trend of disinflation ended that interest rates will have to rise” to prevent the U.S.
in 2021? economy from overheating.
In my view, the inflation trade, is arguably the big- It was the most overt acknowledgement to date by
gest decision you have to make with regards to your a government or Federal Reserve official that inflation-
portfolio for the next 10 to 20 years. ary pressures exacerbated by unprecedented federal
If you have got a 10-year to 20-year investment ho- stimulus spending and pent-up demand consumer
rizon now, the downside is that you do not adjust. Your spending might actually harm the American economy.
risk is that you do not adjust for inflation. Especially Madame Secretary Yellen offered further assuranc-
at a time when traditional fixed income is increasingly es that she is not worried about persistent inflation,
return free risk and crypto currencies like bitcoin are but she does think prices will rise in the short term as
making record highs. economic activity picks up.
Inflationary risk is generally defined as the risk The return of inflation now seems to have become
that inflation will undermine an investment’s returns consensus and could become one the main market
through a decline in fiat currency purchasing power. themes for 2021, coupled with a rebound in global
Bond payments are at most inflationary risk because commodities. Year-to-date, the best performing stock
their payouts are generally based on fixed interest markets in the world, like Mongolia and Kazakhstan,
rates, meaning an increase in inflation diminishes their are all commodity linked stock markets.
purchasing power. Rising inflation will lead to steeper yield curves
RAINER MICHAEL PREISS SERVES AS PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST AT GOLDEN EQUATOR WEALTH SINGAPORE.
zakhstan, are the best hedge against global While the media talks a lot about U.S. inflation, usually engineered by govern-
inflation rising. and increasingly EU sanctions on Russia, ments for the gain of governments.”
sector and green economy initiatives, and if According to preliminary data, the volume ALL THE BEST, MR. HUDAK!
the political situation in Georgia meets the of FDI in Georgia amounted to $616.9 million
SEBASTIAN MOLINEUS IS THE WORLD BANK REGIONAL DIRECTOR FOR THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
with Georgia on the green growth agenda for program activities in Georgia will focus on the Let’s all strive for a Georgia that is open,
some time now, by harnessing the potential of sustainable use of forest resources and im- digital and green!
COLIN DONOHUE IS DIRECTOR OF STARTUP GRIND TBILISI AND STARTUP CONNECT. HE WORKS TO BUILD STARTUP COMPANIES AND ECOSYSTEMS IN GEORGIA AND BEYOND AND NOW SERVES AS FRACTIONAL CEO
COMMERCIALIZING TWO GLOBALLY-SIGNIFICANT GREEN TECHNOLOGIES.
While George was extremely busy he Sachs and Highland Capital. Our mutual data set, and relationships in the automotive
took time out to give the startups atten- friend Mark Mullen had recruited him to industry George had from Shift Pulsar was
tion. As Dachi shares George seemed very tear himself away from the office to come for able to get a “head-start” on the competition
distracted as Dachi talked to him, typing on dinner with Georgian founders though he and seize the niche of offering high-quality
his phone. Dachi was concerned he was not was ferociously busy growing the company automated tools for car shoppers.
listening and was very surprised. Soon after and laying foundation for a new $140 million The company that eventually acquired
George revealed that while they talked he round of debt & equity which he closed 6 pulsar, Spincar.com, is “global leader in
had already set up 3 appointments for the months later. Since then Shift.com has gone digital automotive merchandising software
talented tech founders and was opening the public on NASDAQ trading as SFT with a and data” and was eager after PulsarAI was
door to his networks! market cap of over $650M. only in the automotive market for less than
Dachi and Zaal followed-up quickly with 2 years to acquire them, saying “Pulsar’s
GEORGIA’S STARTUP STAR a meeting at Shift’s office and established a team of deep learning specialists, develop-
One of the most successful Georgian working relationship with George. Subse- ers, data scientists, linguists and operations
startup founders is George Arison, born Irakli quently George gave them some project ac- personnel have developed some of the most
Areshidze. He was born and grew up in tivities to demonstrate their capacity and the powerful conversational AI capabilities
Georgia but moved to the US as teenager for relationship evolved into active mentorship. available today”. In the acquisition Spincar
school. His resume includes work at Google, Pulsar had been an AI/ML development is making offers to all existing PulsarAI team
PHOTO: NIKOLOZ GOGOCHURI
founding the startup Taxi Magic, and work shop on the Georgian market and George members and seeks to expand the Georgian
with Boston Consulting Group. George was helped guide them into a more scalable team moving forward.
CEO of Shift which at the time had raised opportunity bringing conversational AI to Availability of qualified AI/Machine
$50 Million from investors like Goldman auto dealerships. Combining the experience, Learning workforce is likely a barrier to Pul-
sar’s growth and an issue Georgia needs to ture capital from VCs) and not trying to grab in seed investing. Very wealthy people
solve to capitalize on the opportunity arising all of the equity in good deals. They learned cannot afford the time to mess with enough
for Georgian companies. Competition for AI/ about the importance of having a portfolio companies to deploy meaningful capital and
ML talent is already a source of friction for of startup investments as the math does not smaller investors may not have enough to
Georgian companies. work if you only invest in one or two. They invest to make a well-constructed portfolio.
have warmed up to the idea of syndication This is why we are working with some
of investments so investors have smaller of our VC friends in Silicon Valley to build
A NEW DAY FOR GEORGIA? pieces of more companies, for better portfo- a modest venture capital fund focused on
While PulsarAI is making the news, there lio construction. And they have learned that seed investments in Georgia. Having a pro-
has been a steady development of things betting on a startup is not betting on the idea fessionalized fund with experts in VC allows
in Georgia. We have used the networks or projections but betting on the founders. for good portfolio construction and support
from Startup Grind and guests of Georgia’s Seed investing is mostly about having trust of startups as they grow in a way Georgian
Innovation & Technology Agency, bringing in founders and supporting them and allow- investors cannot provide.
VCs and other guests to see the sites and fall ing them to do their job. Many people are talk about doing ven-
in love with Georgia. For the Pulsar investment we invited ture funds without any experience in the
Georgia’s reputation in the startup the investors who had taken part in train- field, without deep connections in Silicon
world has become significant as it became ings and colleagues we knew and trusted. Valley with larger VC funds, customers and
one of the first regional Startup World Cup We wanted to involve people who would specialized talent startups need.
competitions, covering the Black Sea region, have expectations and founder-focused The secret is that the majority of funds
and hosted the largest Startup Grind online orientation. Georgian investors came in for a do not have returns better than the stock
event ever in December 2020 involving 60 low-6-figure-USD investment across several market. Investors in these low-performing
countries and 280 cities. investors, giving several people their first funds take additional risk without getting
Building on Georgia’s reputation for hos- startup experience. additional returns. In contrast, the top-tier
pitality we have developed networks with It was a good first experience for those funds are extremely high-performing. This
top-tier venture investors from Silicon Valley local investors, though it was not a realistic is where the money is made in VC and why
and many have “fallen in love with Georgia, one. Startup investment is a long-term com- you’ll never get into a Sequoia or A16Z fund
including Bill Reichert (Garage Ventures, mitment as the best companies will grow as they are always oversubscribed.
Pegasus Ventures), Marvin Liao (founder for a decade or more. Having a return in less High-performing VC funds make money
of 500 startups flagship accelerator in San than 2 years with multiple on your money is by attracting the most talented founders
Francisco and investor in 400+ companies), not typical. and providing alpha from supporting those
Sheel Mohnot (500 Fintech Fund, Better In building an angel/seed portfolio you founders. This support comes in the form
Tomorrow Fund), Zach Coelius (Coelius really want to put in a small part of your of introductions to potential follow-on inves-
Capital), Trae Stephens (Founders Fund) and investable money (maybe 2% or 5%) and tors, key customers, and talented specialists
more. The willingness of these investors to diversify across at least 10 companies if you in areas important to the founder, some-
participate in activities in Georgia gives the want the math to work right. Some angels times media, etc. While US startups often go
opportunity to more quickly develop early will just do a deal or two which is fine, but with a certain VC because of the doors they
stage investing based in a rational way, based most likely you’ll not get a return. Startups open its 100X more important for Georgian
on lessons learned and best practices from are a game of “outliers” so it’s really the top founders as most here do not already have
these professional VCs. 3% of investments that make returns for connections with VCs, corporations and
As national lead in Georgia for the EU- seed investors. If you put too much into too other key contacts.
funded Early Stage Investing Launchpad few companies your chances of hitting a 10X I look forward to seeing the Georgian
project a couple of years ago I had the oppor- or 50X return is very low. You can do it for startup and early-stage investing ecosystem
tunity to engage some more open-minded entertainment but angel investing without develop and hope that vehicles with the
investors in learning about seed investing proper portfolio construction is gambling. right networks and knowledge can be made
from some great European angels. These The odds are in your favor, but it’s still available to ambitious young founders so
investors have started to form a new culture, gambling. they can fuel their growth from Georgian
not trying to take 51% of a startup (thereby Not every investor has the time or funds not just US, Japanese, Israeli, Dutch
preventing them from being able to raise fu- interest to get to know the best practices and UK investors as is the case now.
eorgia
6 Shrosha Str., Office 1, 0179, Tbilisi, Georgia
TEL: +995 32 225 0406
THE GREEN ENERGY LOBBYIST
Georgia consumes more energy than it produces. Last year, even as consumption decreased
due to the pandemic, the country had to import 160.07 million kWh of electricity. How can
Georgia enhance its energy independence? GNERC commissioner Maia Melikidze, who has
written several books on the subject of renewable energy, sees green energy as a solution. We
spoke to her about the existing challenges and government policy in this field.
Does Russia offer Georgia competitive rates? What is the timeframe for reaching the 2% tar-
Azerbaijan offers us the best rates, but we also deal get?
with Russia for the simple reason that Azerbaijan may We were expecting to meet the target within five or
not have enough electricity to meet our demand. We six years, but last year’s rise in electricity prices speed-
also buy electricity from Turkey, although imports from ed up the process. We may now reach the target in two
this country do not cover a significant portion of our to three years – half the time we initially envisaged.
electricity consumption.
What happens when the 2% target has been
What steps are being taken to increase energy exceeded?
independence? We must then conduct research to establish whether
The first step is to achieve diversification, and the our electricity system can absorb more than 2%. If we
second is to integrate renewable energy into the grid. find that this is possible, then we will definitely raise
Energy efficiency is important. We know that hydroelec- the limit. However, we may also consider installing solar
tric power has been Georgia’s most successful model, batteries in the future.
which generates 80% of our electricity. There is also The use of the net metering system is becoming
thermal energy, but this requires natural gas, which increasingly popular. It allows excess electricity to be
we do not have. As you know, we import most of our stored with the distribution company and used later,
gas from abroad. Therefore, our thermal power stations in which case reverse metering is applied. If the use of
also rely on imports. Ideally, we should have additional solar energy was to grow significantly, and the electric-
sources of energy. Along with hydroelectric power, ity distribution network is reset, then installation of
we should also harness other forms of green energy, solar batteries may become part of the regulations. The
namely wind and solar power. batteries can store electricity generated during the day,
To reduce energy dependence, it is important to di- to be used by the consumer in the evening.
versify both the imported and locally generated energy. At this stage, our goal is to support those who are
However, in light of recent events, generating electricity ready to make our country attractive for investors with
locally has become highly challenging. regards to the use of solar panels and renewable en-
ages are currently being prepared,
and once these changes have been
enacted, it will be much easier for
investors to see the full picture and
confidently enter our market. There
are also investors who are waiting for
the Georgian energy market to open
on 1st July this year.
Investors routinely carry out vari-
ous research projects, and they know
very well about the growing demand
and growing imports in Georgia. They
also know that government policy is
focused on energy security, energy
independence and energy efficiency.
This means that local energy sources
must be advanced. Any smart busi-
nessperson or investor will realize
that this is a lucrative niche that they
can be a part ofby entering the mar-
ket and initiating local production.
Their product is guaranteed to sell
because electricity demand is sub-
stantial. We therefore expect them
to start expressing interest from the
second half of this year.
According to the energy policy docu-
ment of Georgia, the government and
other parties involved in the energy
sector must encourage generation of
clean energy and seek to transform
the country into a regional clean en-
ergy center. You have written several
books about renewable energy.
Billionaires
T
he Forbes list of billionairesnow includes two citizens of
Georgia. Mikheil Lomtadze is a new addition to the list of
the world’s wealthiest people. Through his business ac-
tivities with the Kazakh fintech firm KASPI, Mr. Lomtadze
amassed an estimated fortune of $3.8 billion.
Along with Mikheil Lomtadze, Georgia is represented on the bil-
lionaires list by former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Until 2020, the billionaires list also included the Russian-based
businessman Alexander Japaridze, whose net worth was $1.2 bil-
lion. However, he is no longer listed as a billionaire, and is ranked
125th in the index of richest businesspeople in Russia with a net
worth of $950 million.
Businessman David Yakobashvili was on the list of global bil-
lionaires in 2014. At that time, Forbes estimated his fortune to
be worth $1.2 billion. According to Forbes Russia, he is currently
worth $700 million and is the 173rd richest businessperson in Rus-
sia.
The combined wealth of Georgians who made the Forbes list is
$10.25 billion.
Age: 65
Source of wealth: Investments
Citizenship: Georgian
Place of residence: Tbilisi
Marital status: Married
Children: 4
რეიტინგი • ქართველი მილიარდერები
$3 მლრდ
$2 მლრდ
$6.4 bil
$5.3 bil
$5.2 bil
$5.2 bil
$4.8 bil
$4.5 bil
$4.6 bil
$4.9 bil
$4.8 bil
$4.8 bil
$1მლრდ
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Age: 45 • Source of wealth: Fintech and investments • Citizenship: Georgian • Place of residence: Almaty
Marital status: Single • Education: Harvard MBA
Mikheil Lomtadze has been CEO of Kaspi Bank in Kazakhstan since 2007. Digital transformation has allowed Kaspi to become the
country’s largest fintech company. The company’s initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange in October 2020 ensured
that Mr. Lomtadze and the Chairman of the Board of Supervision at Kaspi, Vyacheslav Kim, made the Forbes list of billionaires.
Mikheil Lomtadze was born on 17th October 1975 in Batumi. He obtained his bachelor’s degree from the European School of Man-
agement in Tbilisi, before continuing his studies at Harvard Business School, graduating with an MBA degree in 2002.
Mr. Lomtadze started his business activities in Georgia, founding the auditing firm GCG Audit in 1995. The company became part
of the Ernst&Young Group several years later.
Since 2002, Mikheil Lomtadze has held the position of Investment Manager at the Baring Vostok Capital Partners investment
fund, becoming a partner in 2004. The investment fund later became one of the leading shareholders and investors in Kaspi Bank.
Mr. Lomtadze assumed the position of CEO of Kaspi Bank in 2007.
Age: 65
Source of wealth: Oil production and investments
Citizenship: Russian
Place of residence: Moscow
Education: Moscow Oil Institute
Marital status: Married
Children: 5
რეიტინგი • ქართველი მილიარდერები
$2.2 მლრდ
$2.0 მლრდ
$1.8 მლრდ
$1.6 მლრდ
$1.4 მლრდ
$1.2 მლრდ
$1.0 მლრდ
$0.8 მლრდ
$0.6 მლრდ
$2.3 bil
$0.95 bil
$0.4 მლრდ
$2.1 bil
$1.8 bil
$2.1 bil
$1.5 bil
$1.2 bil
$1.3 bil
$1.6 bil
$1.2 bil
$1 bil
$0.2 მლრდ
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Age: 64
Source of wealth: Investments
Citizenship: Russian
Education: Tbilisi Technical University (did not graduate)
Marital status: Married
Children: 1
$1,100 მლნ
$1,000 მლნ
$900 მლნ
$800 მლნ
$700 მლნ
$600 მლნ
$500 მლნ
$400 მლნ
$1,200 mil
$300 მლნ
$950 mil
$950 mil
$950 mil
$900 mil
$900 mil
$900 mil
$800 mil
$750 mil
$750 mil
$700 mil
$200 მლნ
$100 მლნ
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
ROUTES TO NEW
RICHES: IPOS, SPACS,
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
AND COVID-RELATED
HEALTH CARE.
IPOS
Matt Moulding
Since mid-March 2020, 1,489 IPOs $2.9 billion • E-commerce • U.K.
(including SPACs) raised $314 billion His e-commerce empire, The Hut Group, went
public in London in September. Two months later
globally. More than half went public in the he got a $1 billion share bonus that the board
had approved.
U.S., where they raised $277 billion. These
Tony Xu
10 billionaires land on the list as $2.8 billion • Food delivery service • U.S.
Xu is cofounder and CEO of food delivery
a result of such public offerings. company DoorDash, which listed on the NYSE in
December. It delivers meals
from 390,000 restaurants in the United States,
Canada and Australia.
Jared Isaacman
Pan Dong $2.3 billion • Payment processing • U.S.
$8.3 billion • Consumer goods • Canada Isaacman, 38, founded payment processing firm
The richest woman new to this year’s list, Shift4 Payments in his parents’ basement at age
she chairs laundry detergent maker Blue Moon 19 and took it public on the NYSE in June. He flies
Group Holdings, which listed in fighter jets for fun, including a Soviet-era MiG-29.
Hong Kong in December. Her husband,
Luo Qiuping, is the company’s CEO. Bang Shi-hyuk
$2.3 billion • Entertainment • South Korea
Vyacheslav Kim Founder of music label and agency Big Hit En-
$3.3 billion • Fintech • Kazakhstan tertainment, which represents the wildly popular
Mikhail Lomtadze K-pop band BTS, he took the company public on
$3.2 billion • Fintech • Georgia the Korea Exchange in October.
CEO Lomtadze and chairman Kim have steered
Kaspi—a payments, e-commerce and mobile- Gong Yingying
banking app used in Kazakhstan—from a small- $2.1 billion • Health IT • China
time retail bank to a London public listing. Half of She is CEO, chair and founder of health-care
Kazakhstan’s 18 million people use the service. analytics firm Yidu Tech, which listed its shares in
Hong Kong in January.
Pablo Legorreta
$2.9 billion • Investments • U.S. David Helgason
The former investment banker founded private $1 billion • Software • Iceland
equity firm Royalty Pharma in Helgason cofounded video-game software
1996 to buy future revenue streams of developer Unity Software in Denmark in 2004
pharmaceuticals. He took it public on and served as CEO until 2014; the company listed
the Nasdaq in June. on the NYSE in September.
Mat Ishbia
$9.7 billion • Mortgage lending • U.S.
Justin Ishbia
$3 billion • Mortgage lending • U.S.
The Ishbias’ father, Jeff, launched a mortgage
firm in 1986. Mat joined the mom-and-pop outfit
in 2003. He and his brother Justin, a private
equity investor, eventually bought most of their
dad’s stake in United Wholesale Mortgage. Now
the nation’s second-largest mortgage lender,
UWM merged with the Gores Holdings IV SPAC
in January; Mat is CEO and Justin is a board
AUS TIN
member.
Andrew Paradise
$2.3 billion • Mobile games • U.S.
RUSSELL
Skillz, the e-sports company Paradise
cofounded in 2012, provides a mobile
platform for developers to host daily
tournaments of games like solitaire and bingo. Its
$230 million in revenue comes
from its cut of users’ entry fees.
$2.4 billion • Sensors • U.S.
William Foley
Russell, 26, spent his teens $1.9 billion • Financial services • U.S.
doing research at the University The former insurance tycoon was quick to capi-
of California at Irvine’s talize on the SPAC boom, sponsoring
Beckman Laser Institute. The six blank-check companies to date. Two
have recently announced mergers—with cloud-
lanky 6-foot-4 entrepreneur based software provider Alight
dropped out of Stanford in Solutions and digital-payments platform Pay-
2012 to found laser lidar (an safe—in deals valued at just over
acronym for light, detection $7 billion and $9 billion, respectively.
and ranging) startup Luminar
Shalom Meckenzie
Technologies after getting $1.7 billion • Sports betting • Israel
a $100,000 fellowship from His gambling-technology provider, SBTech,
billionaire tech investor Peter merged with sports betting site DraftKings and
Thiel. Its sensors now help self- went public via a SPAC in April 2020. He serves
driving cars of customers such on the board and is one of DraftKings’ largest
as Volvo, Toyota and Intel’s shareholders, with a nearly 6% stake.
Mobileye see in 3D by bouncing Geeta Gupta-Fisker
laser beams off nearby objects $1.6 billion • Electric vehicles • U.K.
and vehicles’ surroundings. The Henrik Fisker
company listed on the Nasdaq $1.6 billion • Electric vehicles • U.S.
via a SPAC merger with Gores Famed car designer Henrik Fisker and his wife,
Metropoulos in December Geeta, who has a Ph.D. in biotech,
2020. Russell, who owns about took their eponymous EV maker public in
October; production of its first vehicle, a midsize
one-third of it, became the SUV, is planned to start in late 2022.
world’s youngest self-made
billionaire overnight. Trevor Milton
$1.4 billion • Electric vehicles • U.S.
His hydrogen-electric truck startup, Nikola, went
public via a SPAC in June 2020. He resigned as
chairman in September after
allegations by a short seller that he lied about
Nikola’s technology to investors,
spurring a review by the SEC.
MICHAEL PRINCE FOR FORBES
Chamath Palihapitiya
$1.2 billion • Facebook, venture capital • U.S.
After helping open the SPAC floodgates by tak-
ing Richard Branson’s space tourism company,
Virgin Galactic, public in 2019, SPAC sponsor and
venture capitalist Palihapitiya acquired two more
firms via SPACs in the past year: homebuying
marketplace Opendoor and insurance company
Clover Health.
Chen Zhiping
$15.9 billion • E-cigarettes
The founder of the world’s largest
manufacturer of vaping devices, Smoore Inter-
national, Chen took the firm public on the Hong
Kong Stock Exchange last July.
Li Hua
$7.1 billion • Financial services
K AT E
An early employee at Tencent, Li founded
Nasdaq-listed online brokerage Futu
Holdings in 2007. The Robinhood-style
fintech boasts nearly 12 million users.
Wang Junlin
$6.3 billion • Liquor
The turnaround artist revived two state-owned
companies before arriving at
WA N G
struggling liquor producer Sichuan
Langjiu in 2001. It now churns out more $5 billion • E-cigarettes
than 40,000 tons of alcohol a year.
One of the world’s youngest self-made female
Wang Ning billionaires, Wang, 39, is CEO of Chinese vaping
$6.3 billion • Toys company RLX Technology. The Columbia Business
In December, Wang took public his toymaker, School grad got the idea for the company in
Pop Mart, which is known for concealing the 2017, when she was trying to persuade her father
identity of its figurines in “blind boxes.”
to quit smoking. “I tried out all the [vaping]
Jian Jun products. Most of them were terrible,” she tells
$5.6 billion • Biomedical products Forbes. RLX posted $324 million in sales in the
Her Shenzhen-listed Imeik Technology first nine months of 2020 and listed on the New
Development makes medical cosmetic products York Stock Exchange in January. Wang has a
like skin fillers and facial implant threads, as well 20% stake. Shares fell 54% over three days in late
as face and neck masks.
March (after Forbes measured net worths for the
Cao Renxian Billionaires list) in response to Chinese authorities
$5.3 billion • Solar power publishing draft rules that would regulate
A university professor, Cao founded Sungrow e-cigarettes as tobacco products.
Power Supply in 1997. Its products, used in 150
countries, convert direct-current electricity from
solar panels into alternating current for the
power grid.
Liu Fangyi
$4.2 billion • Medical equipment
Stock of his Intco Medical Technology, which
makes disposable medical products like
masks and gloves, shot up 650% in the past
year amid the pandemic.
Li Xiang
$4 billion • Electric vehicles
The 39-year-old founded NYSE-listed
STEFEN CHOW FOR FORBES
Jin Baofang
$3.9 billion • Solar panels
Jin is founder and chair of JA Solar, a Beijing-
based solar panel producer that boasts 33,000
clients in 135 countries and regions.
Cameron Winklevoss
$3 billion • U.S.
Tyler Winklevoss
BILLIONAIRES • NEWCOMERS
$3 billion • U.S.
The twin brothers own an estimated 70,000
Bitcoin, plus the crypto exchange Gemini, which
processes about $200 million a day
in trades. (See story, page 96.)
Michael Saylor
$2.3 billion • U.S.
The CEO of software firm MicroStrategy made,
and lost, a fortune during the first
dot-com bust. He debuts now after snapping up
Bitcoin ahead of the boom—for both himself and
his company—pushing its stock up.
Jed McCaleb
$2 billion • U.S.
He created Mt. Gox, the first major Bitcoin
exchange, before cofounding Ripple in 2012. He
soon left due to reported disagreements with
fellow founders but still holds an estimated 3.4
billion XRP, Ripple’s token.
Fred Ehrsam
$1.9 billion • U.S.
The former Goldman Sachs trader owns 6%
of crypto exchange Coinbase, which he cofounded
in 2012 and which is poised to go public on the
Nasdaq; he remains a board member.
Barry Silbert
$1.6 billion • U.S.
His Digital Currency Group, a conglomerate of
five blockchain-focused companies, includes
crypto asset manager Grayscale, which oversees
some $44 billion worth of Bitcoin, ether and
SAM BANKMAN-FRIED
other assets.
Tim Draper
$1.5 billion • U.S.
The Silicon Valley VC bought $18.7 million worth
$8.7 billion • U.S. of Bitcoin confiscated by U.S. Marshals from the
shuttered Silk Road black market in 2014. They
An MIT grad and former Wall Street trader, Bankman-Fried, 29, is the founder and CEO of are now worth $1.5 billion.
quantitative crypto trading firm Alameda, which manages $32 billion in Bitcoin and other major
cryptocurrencies as well as their derivatives. He also founded Hong Kong–based crypto exchange Matthew Roszak
FTX, which achieved unicorn status in January 2020, less than a year after its May 2019 launch. The $1.5 billion • U.S.
exchange will soon replace American Airlines as the naming-rights sponsor of the home arena of the A longtime crypto evangelist, Roszak worked in
NBA’s Miami Heat. The vast majority of Bankman-Fried’s wealth is in FTX’s equity and FTT tokens, venture capital and as an entrepreneur before
the native cryptocurrency of FTX. In 2020, he gave $5 million to a pro-Biden super PAC, making him amassing a portfolio of Bitcoin, ether and other
one of the president’s biggest donors. cryptocurrencies starting in 2012.
VIRGILE SIMON BERTRAND FOR FORBES
Editor: Kerry A. Dolan Deputy Editors: Chase Peterson-Withorn, Jennifer Wang Country Editors: Graham Button, Grace Chung, Russell Flannery, Naazneen Karmali,
Nathan Vardi Wealth Team: Angel Au-Yeung, Kenrick Cai, Deniz Çam, Maggie Chen, David Dawkins, Anastassia Gliadkovskaya, John Hyatt, Max Jedeur-Palmgren,
Momina Khan, Sergei Klebnikov, Elaine Mao, Andrea Murphy, Krisztián Sándor, Ariel Shapiro, Giacomo Tognini, Hank Tucker, Lisette Voytko and reporters at Forbes-licensed editions in
Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine.
Reporters: Susan Adams, Dan Alexander, Anderson Antunes, Megha Bahree, Nina Bambysheva, Margherita Beale, Madeline Berg, Justin Birnbaum, Tim Boreham,
Igor Bosilkovski, Thomas Brewster, Nilgun Cavdar, Shu-Ching Jean Chen, Muhammad Cohen, Lachlan Colquhoun, Lauren Debter, Michael del Castillo, James Dunn,
Steven Ehrlich, Amy Feldman, Antoine Gara, Eliza Haverstock, Christopher Helman, Alvaro Hernandez Zorrilla, Jane Ho, Katie Jennings, Jeff Kauflin, Sean Kilachand,
Noah Kirsch, Alex Knapp, Alex Konrad, Nicole Lindsay, Katherine Love, Iain Martin, Anis Shakirah Mohd Muslimin, Suzy Nam, Lan Anh Nguyen, Alan Ohnsman, Robert Olsen, Phisanu
Phromchanya, Jonathan Ponciano, Anu Raghunathan, Natalie Robehmed, Leah Rosenbaum, Matt Schifrin, Lucinda Schmidt, Leonard Schoenberger, James Simms, Chloe Sorvino, Deborah
Steinborn, Jessica Tan, Michela Tindera, Ozer Turan, Elisa Valenta, Yue Wang, Jennifer Wells, Will Yakowicz, Itai Zehorai
Research: Sue Radlauer Photo Research: Merrilee Barton, Gail Toivanen Database: Dmitri Slavinsky
Acknowledgements: Special thanks to Sara B. Potter, FactSet Research Systems, Orbis by Bureau Van Dijk, PitchBook Data, Real Capital Analytics, Reonomy, S&P Capital IQ, VesselsValue
and the other experts who helped us with our reporting and valuations.
Jack Schuler
$1.1 billion • Diagnostics • U.S.
Former Abbott Labs president, now a biotech
investor, he owns 7% of diagnostics firm Quidel
Corp., which makes Covid-19 tests.
B
ill and Melinda Gates, the influential billionaire couple a prenup, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have one, since they
in charge of the world’s largest private foundation, aren’t obligated to disclose everything on the filing.
are divorcing after 27 years of marriage, the pair said Complicating matters is the fact that Washington, where the
Monday in separate announcements on Twitter. Gates family resides, is a community property state. That means
In the divorce filing, the couple said their marriage is “irretriev- all assets acquired by either party during a marriage are con-
ably broken.” Bill and Melinda will remain co-chairs of The Bill sidered communal and typically split equally during divorce in
and Melinda Gates Foundation, and they will continue to work the absence of a prenup. Though in Washington, the parties can
together to shape the strategies of the foundation and set the agree to divide their assets in a way that is “just and equitable,”
organization’s direction, according to a spokesperson. which can result in settlements that aren’t necessarily 50/50, Janet
The shock announcement leaves several questions about the George, a divorce attorney at Washington-based law firm McKinley
Gates fortune unanswered. It’s unclear how the couple will divide Irvin, told Forbes. Take Jeff Bezos and his ex-wife MacKenzie; Jeff
their assets or whether they signed a prenup, but due to the sheer gave MacKenzie one quarter of his Amazon stake in their divorce
size of their fortune, the split will likely be one of the largest divorce settlement. If Bill and Melinda did decide to split the fortune
settlements in history. Bill Gates, who in 1975 cofounded Microsoft, equally, Melinda would be worth $65.25 billion, which would be
is worth $130.5 billion, making him the fourth richest person in the more than MacKenzie Scott, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’s ex-wife,
world, according to Forbes. Gates first became the world’s richest who is worth $59.8 billion (Scott did donate nearly $6 billion of her
person—with a $12.9 billion fortune—in 1995, one year after he mar- fortune to charitable entities last year.).
ried Melinda. According to the divorce petition, Bill and Melinda are Forbes assembled a list of the largest billionaire disunions on
currently separated and signed a contract dictating how the couple record—at least where we could follow the money. In some cases,
will handle finances while living apart. They asked the court to like the split between Google’s Sergey Brin and Anne Wojcicki, we
divide their assets based on the terms of the separation contract, but don’t know the size of the settlement because divorce filings were
details of the contract weren’t disclosed. The filing does not mention sealed.
After three years of bitter court proceedings, oil tycoon Harold in 2015
tried to finally end his 26-year marriage with Sue Ann (no prenup) by
writing her a check in the amount of $974,790,317.77 from his Morgan
Stanley account. She deposited it, but then changed her mind, decided
she wanted more and filed an appeal seeking a bigger share of the
then-$13.7 billion fortune tied to Hamm’s 75% ownership in publicly
traded Continental Resources. In April 2015 the Oklahoma Supreme
Court ended the saga, granting Harold’s motion to dismiss her appeal,
reasoning from precedent that Sue Ann had agreed to the settlement
by signing and depositing the check. Sue Ann subsequently funded a
political action committee that succeeded in its effort to unseat the
judge who presided over the divorce.
BY ELENE CHOMAKHIDZE
PHOTOS: KHATUNA KHUTSISHVILI
50 | FORBES JUNE 2021
In May 2021, the global leader in digital automotive merchandising software and data – SpinCar –an-
nounced the acquisition of Pulsar AI, creator of the auto industry’s most advanced conversational
AI platform, and so Pulsar AI became part of an interesting puzzle on the global market. Through
this acquisition, Pulsar’s automated communication technology was integrated into the SpinCar
platform and Pulsar’s thirty employees became part of SpinCar’s expanded global Product, Op-
erations and R&D organization. Although behind this global success stands a great team; Dachi
Choladze, Zaal Gachechiladze and Sopo Chkoidze were the individuals who made the leap forward
in the Georgian tech industry five years ago and made everyone believe in the unbelievable.
What benefits did the deal with SpinCar bring to you in terms of Icon Tower in downtown Syracuse. It also has offices in New York City,
reputation and what are the financial implications of this deal? Toronto, and Manchester(England), and will take over Pulsar’s offices
Dachi: When we started the business, we bootstrapped our in San Francisco and Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. As a result of the
company, and we provided our services directly to our customers in Pulsar acquisition, SpinCar will expand its offices in New York (NYC and
Georgia. Since then we have always aimed to expand our reach to the Syracuse), San Francisco, Tbilisi, Manchester and Toronto.
US market and, as a result of moving in that direction, we attracted $1.2 Zaal: We have united forces with SpinCar by joining this company,
million of investment from Silicon Valley venture capital funds and however, the product is still being developed by our team. We are try-
private investors to fund our product journey in the states; with this ing to promote synergy, which was the motivation behind the merger
amount we have been able to enter the US market and start selling our of these two companies from the very beginning. The multimedia
Conversational AI Solution there. The recent acquisition terms are con- content that SpinCar offers its clients has been integrated into our
fidential, so I am unable to disclose the exact value of the transaction at communication channels. These are two companies that did not merge
this point, although I can openly say that this transaction includes both simply because Pulsar generates revenue and that is the motivator, but
cash and SpinCar stock. Every shareholder (investors, option holders because we are each one part of a puzzle and we fit together seamlessly.
and advisors) who owns stock in Pulsar, be it an investor, an employee, This synergy offers a higher quality of service to clients and increases
or a founder, will receive both cash and share considerations from this the value of our service even more.
deal. Therefore, the merger of Pulsar AI with SpinCar means that as Dachi: We are continuing to develop this product and attract more
SpinCar grows, the value of every shareholder’s stock also grows –and customers to the US market, which in turn means we have a busy
as we continue to grow with enhanced motivation and resources, the schedule for the next 12-24 months. SpinCar is very strong in sales and
value of SpinCar naturally increases. We are confident that over the marketing and has an incredibly capable team – this allows us to make
next year and beyond, the valuation of SpinCar will grow exponentially. significant and more interesting changes in the automotive industry
with the products we create. All this gives us a high degree of motiva-
What has changed on a daily basis for Pulsar AI because of this tion. We believed years ago that we would make significant changes
deal? in the direction of artificial intelligence, and we managed to do it; this
Sopo: American Pulsar had no experience in selling products in gives us both adrenaline and inspiration.
the United States beforehand and did not sell automotive software in
Georgia. In 2019, We created a product that would attract US based car Perhaps there is no need to ask why you decided to focus on
dealerships to implement a Conversational AI tool that would engage America and more specifically on Silicon Valley. More to the
with their leads 24/7 and drive them to the store. It was a directly tar- point, when did you realize you were ready for America?
geted product that we aimed to sell on the US market. Employees who Zaal: When we knew that we were already firmly “holding” this
have been involved in these processes continue to work with the same technology in Georgia, it also coincided in part with the fact that we
know how, and in the same direction as they did before. One clear goal went to the United States and met George Arison, who then actively
is to scale our new customer on boarding process in a way to match the supported the company and helped the team identify a unique oppor-
demand that we now have through SpinCar’s more than 3,000 custom- tunity in the auto retailing space. He is one of the most successful entre-
ers. SpinCar has a strong background in creating a product that sells preneurs in the automotive industry in Silicon Valley with a billion-dol-
and markets itself as a global leader. This leading company provides lar startup that has just made an initial public offering and their shares
expert service in sales and marketing, and we, our end, develop and are being traded on the Nasdaq. It was with George that we learned
support the state-of-the art conversational AI platform. With the ac- about the problems in the auto industry. In general, the US is the land
quisition, SpinCar will have 120 employees, including 75 in its office in of opportunity. Especially Silicon Valley, which is actually the cradle for
TECHNOLOGY PULSAR AI
TECHNOLOGY PULSAR AI
Do you think that being the first is the biggest competitive As you were at the forefront of the development of the techno-
advantage in your case? logical field in Georgia, tell us during this period, how the startup
Dachi: We offered a service to companies that no one else offered at ecosystem has changed in the country? What was the challenge
that time. When we chose the field of artificial intelligence exclusively, then, and what is it now?
this already gave us a niche. If someone needed a service related to Sopo: I would say that when we started the business in 2016, a
artificial intelligence, Pulsar was immediately on their mind. Probably startup ecosystem did not exist in the country at all. For example, we
still the biggest competitive advantage was that our first customer was did not have access to information about startups that might have been
TBC Bank, the money we received from this project was fully allocated operating in the country at that time. At this point, however, we have
towards expanding the team and we started to create services that did seen an increase in the number of entrepreneurs and startups. We have
not exist before in Georgia. This further solidified our advantage. heard a lot of great ideas and have become members of many com-
Sopo: I believe our advantage in the American market was more munities and a broader picture has emerged of what startups do and
visible in terms of price, product and its quality. We are a group of how they work. The culture of entrepreneurship has also become more
people that focus on creating valuable and high-quality products that interesting to the public.
drive change and innovation. We are a startup that has done a lot more Dachi: The existence of GITA created many opportunities for us,
work in the Georgian language than any other startup in the US that has and not only for us, in the sense that a community was created in
strived to create a natural language program. Having our technical and which knowledge was shared, people connected, got to know each
operations team based in Tbilisi (Georgia) helped us with maintain- other, and gathered more information. Additionally, a lot of activities
ing a low runway and cash burn compared to other startups based in and the constant process of something happening in this field, pushed
Silicon Valley. As for the product-based advantage, we are a group of many companies to grow and develop. A different culture has emerged
people that focus on creating valuable and high-quality products that in the startup ecosystem. There is already room for hi-tech startups,
drive change and innovation. We had three important advantages. The and GITA’s contribution to this is huge. We have participated in many
advantage in terms of price was that we worked from Tbilisi and were events with their support, including Startup Grind.
able to cut costs in many directions, for instance, in the case of rent. Zaal: From a legal point of view, the startup ecosystem has become
more sophisticated, and there are benefits around taxation when pro-
What was the starting point and where are you now? viding services abroad from Georgia. We have set an example for our-
Zaal: Dachi and I invested all our savings in the Georgian startup. selves that one can be successful in this field. This area has advanced
We sat and thought for a month, after this we made a prototype of the both in terms of initiatives and in terms of state emphasis.
first Georgian messenger chatbot, which we offered directly to TBC
Bank. It was a very well-calculated step on our part. Of course, there What plans does American Pulsar have in the short term?
was an element of luck, for example, Dachi met one of the representa- Sopo: Right now, it is too early to talk about long term plans, but
tives of TBC for a standard job interview, he listened carefully and in the short term we are currently focusing on ensuring that the two
finally said that he had actually come to them for a completely different teams merge as effectively as possible and bring more value together as
reason. After this we introduced the product to TBC’s management, one team.
and this is where our collaboration started. Dachi: We are focused on growing a more sophisticated product
Dachi: From my point of view, the experience with TBC Bank was and are fully committed to it. Entrepreneurship is what we relish, so it is
especially important. From the very first day when Zaal and I said our aspiration to find problems and solve them. We are problem solvers
let’s create this product and show it to someone, we were both only and no doubt we will continue in this way.
The Three
Principles
1.3 million customers and an increased market share de-
spite the pandemic – Veon Georgia is meeting fresh chal-
lenges and opportunities with new CEO Lasha Tabidze.
BY ELENE KVANCHILASHVILI
PHOTOS: KHATUNA KHUTSISHVILI
L
asha Tabidze, 38 years old, CEO of Veon Georgia. We are talking to each other through Zoom.
Nothing – not even face masks – reminds me of the realities of the pandemic as starkly as
having to record a cover interview using an online platform. I adjust to the situation, press
record, and the interview begins.
Lasha Tabidze has been employed by Veon Georgia for ten years. He has worked under four CEOs,
studied every detail about the multinational firm, and acquired practical skills that allowed him to rise
to the position of CEO.
In Lasha Tabidze’s opinion, the main personal challenge for him during his time at the company was
to showcase his skills not just at the local level, but also more broadly within the group. “This requires
a completely different set of skills,” he states, quickly adding that according to his philosophy, there are
always two sides to the coin – wherever there is a challenge, there is also an opportunity.
This approach has served him well. He is now in charge of a company that is part of the VEON group,
a global provider of connectivity and digital services.
Headquartered in Amsterdam, VEON serves 212 million customers in nine different countries,
including Georgia. The company is listed on the NASDAQ and Euronext stock exchanges.
By February 2021, VEON Georgia managed to increase its market share in spite of the pandemic.
Lasha Tabidze is not frightened of the pandemic. He has experience in crisis management, albeit
in a different company and a different sector. Throughout the interview, I get the impression that for
him abstract experience does not exist. He collects knowledge and skills before implementing them in
practice.
“I am very happy with how far I have come and where I am today. I accomplished all of this through
my own and my team’s hard work. I would like to believe that my success is down to my capabilities,
rather than luck,” says Lasha Tabidze.
It is clear that he relies on his strategic vision rather than luck. According to him, it does not matter
what he is working on – whether he is selling alcohol products, insurance, advertising or SIM cards, he
always adheres to the three principles of management: first, to have a vision and know in which direc-
tion you want to take the company; second, to know who your customers are and what you can do for
them; and third, to work with the right people who can help achieve the first two components.
56 | FORBES JUNE 2021
FORBES
Lasha Tabidze was appointed CEO of Veon Georgia on 15th- satisfaction of our team and our employees, as well
March 2021. Prior to that, he held the position of a Chief Opera- as the diversity of the workplace experience of our
tions Officer in the company between 2018 and 2021. He started team members – for example, how many educa-
at Veon Georgia as a Chief Commercial Officer. Overall, he has tional programmes they are involved in, how many
spent ten years working in the telecommunications sector. rotations they undergo, and so on. There are no bad
Lasha Tabidze has many years of experience as an executive teams. There are teams that develop, and those that
in the field of business management. In 2011, before moving don’t.
to the position of Commercial Director at VEON Georgia, he
worked in companies such as JSC Sarajishvili (as Commercial
Does this depend on the manager?
Director) and Vellagio Ltd. (Director for Business Development).
Yes, it does. I believe it is a sign of weakness for
Lasha Tabidze studied economics at the Ruprecht-Karls
a manager to start changing his/her team instead of
University of Heidelberg in Germany and international business
devoting all the energy and resources towards the
at Tbilisi State University. He is fluent in Georgian, English, Ger-
man, and Russian. development of team members and giving them the
freedom to grow. In the 21st century, nobody can
claim to fully know a profession anymore. Every-
thing changes dynamically. It is, therefore, impor-
tant to always be informed and ready to develop.
Let us talk about these three components of Otherwise, you will quickly lose your competitive
your philosophy in greater detail, and start edge.
with vision – how will you make your mark, and
how will you measure your success as company What is the other side of the coin?
CEO? The other side of the coin is the outside – the
Most importantly, I will always remember what I company’s external development. For example,
said earlier about the two sides of the coin. My team when I first arrived at the company in 2015, we had
will have a lot of freedom to develop themselves. no internet technology beyond 2G. We immediately
This will happen not only through teamwork, coach- devised a strategy to switch to 4G. We were the first
ing and collaboration, but also with the help of all company in Georgia to purchase the appropriate
the numerous resources that are at the company’s license and bring in this technology.
disposal – educational projects, funded courses,
licenses, and training. All of this comes with the What was your role in all of this?
freedom that we have spent years building, and is My responsibility was to ensure that our business
working right now. caught up with this innovation. You need to bear in
mind that our group was investing tens of millions
In spite of the pandemic? into the development of this network at a time when
2020 was a good test for us. We had long been there were very few 4G mobile phones in the coun-
advocating things such as having the freedom to try. However, we devised a four-year strategy and
work from anywhere you want and having a flexible managed to fully recover our investment in 2018.
schedule if you can get the work done. Last year By that time, 4G users were already outnumbering
proved that we had been employing the right ap- users of other technologies.
proach for a long time. It has given us a great advan-
tage, which will only become stronger in the future. What do you mean by that?
Strategy is particularly important. The reality
Are you talking about Agile? We are coming is that our company was already aboard the digital
across this term quite a lot nowadays. train in 2018, long before the pandemic. In our case,
We implemented Agile at our company in digital development is more than just words. We
Does regulation constitute resistance? to go through 6-7 steps to buy a product or service
On the one hand, regulation is necessary to online. Today the number of steps is being revised,
prevent monopolies on the market. However, there and I believe we are getting closer to the moment
is another way of looking at things: our 1.3 million when one or two steps will be enough. This will only
customers can currently transfer small amounts of increase customer satisfaction.
money to each other, top up their balance, purchase
products for each other, and now also send music You mentioned a key word – security, which
as a gift. Everything is coming together. That is why is closely related to simplicity and customer
I believe that the era of ecosystems is ahead of us, satisfaction. How has this market evolved in
and the process cannot be stopped. If this is done the ten years that you have been observing it
correctly, in compliance with ethical business norms directly?
and by ensuring that customer data is protected, This market has become incredibly dynamic over
while at the same time creating new wealth for the last five years. When I joined the telecom sector
customers, then this can only be viewed positively. ten years ago, it was entirely dependent on technology.
These dynamics will become increasingly visible Today, service is as important as technology. Soon we
and tangible. Around four years ago, we needed will also be dealing with the challenge of electronic
When the
Market Leader
is Your Partner
When business clients face a challenge, they can
rely on TBC and Giorgi Tkhelidze for support.
BY ELENE KVANCHILASHVILI
PHOTOS: KHATUNA KHUTSISHVILI
O
nce the pandemic is over, our main surprise to those who regularly follow the reports
leadership test will come in the form published by TBC Bank and the forecasts of various
of feedback from our clients, and financial organizations. Based on these forecasts,
whether or not they will say that we the 2021 economic recovery figures may seem
were and always will be their main supporters,” large against the background of last year’s record
Deputy CEO of TBC Giorgi Tkhelidze says with a lows. In reality, it will take the economy at least
smile. After a long time, we finally manage to meet until the end of 2022 to reach pre-pandemic levels.
face-to-face again at the TBC office on Marjanish- Even from the figures posted by TBC we can
vili Street. clearly see, on the one hand, the bank’s resilience
I can only tell by his eyes that he is smiling, as in the current difficult environment, and on the
we both wear face masks. It is a seemingly organic other hand, the way in which the development
moment against the background of this interview of systemically important banks and economic
and the message sent out by Georgia’s leading recovery are interconnected. In the fourth quarter
bank: uncertainty remains, but we have considera- of 2020, TBC posted figures of GEL 14 billion in net
bly more experience and more ways of eliminating loans, GEL 22 billion in assets, and GEL 123 million
it now than last summer, when the bank’s manage- in end-of-year net profit. “The growth was not as
ment was discussing the pandemic and the ways of substantial as in 2018 and 2019, but we still issued
adapting to it with Forbes. GEL 2.2 billion to corporate businesses alone,” Mr.
We have other priorities today. We need to ensure Tkhelidze notes. TBC remains the market leader in
that TBC manages to retain stability in the relation- terms of growth.
ship with its partners and chooses the right leader- Even during the crisis, businesses were issued
ship style. We now know that the pandemic is more with funds, including new money for the imple-
unruly and long-lasting than we initially thought. mentation of both ongoing and new projects. The
At the time of writing this cover story, devalua- Deputy CEO of TBC sees the cooperation between
tion of the national currency continues at a record the banking system, the National Bank of Georgia,
pace.Last year, the current account deficit of Geor- and the Georgian government as key to maintain-
gia doubled and reached 12% of GDP, the economy ing these dynamics. “We listened to each other
shrunk by 6.2%, more than 100,000 people found and conceived a joint action plan. This partnership
themselves below the poverty line, and more continues to the present day.”
than 75,000 citizens lost their jobs. Without going According to international credit rating agen-
deeper into negative statistics, we can see that cies, the Georgian banking system is functioning
the health crisis is closely being followed by an well even during the pandemic – most recently, at
economic crisis. the end of March, the international credit rating
For Georgia’s small open economy, the agency Fitch revised the outlook of TBC and two
aforementioned figures are truly alarming. In the other Georgian commercial banks from ‘negative’ to
context of banks representing the main source of ‘stable.’ At the same time, the rating agency affirmed
funding in Georgia, and TBC being a systemically TBC’s long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB-’.
important bank, there are two important questions According to the statement published by Fitch, “the
that we need to put to Giorgi Tkhelidze. revision of the outlook to ‘stable’ reflects reduced
First, when can we expect the economy to pressure on the bank’s credit profile from the
recover? The Deputy CEO of TBC believes that “in pandemic and contraction of the Georgian economy.
this regard, we have not yet felt the full effects of Fitch expects the bank’s pre-impairment profits
the pandemic. The reality is that last year’s expec- to be sufficient to absorb additional credit losses
tations about slowing the pandemic and achieving from the pandemic without jeopardizing the bank’s
tourism recovery have been delayed. Therefore, it financial profile. TBC entered the crisis with healthy
will also take the economy longer to recover.” capital cushions and sound performance metrics.”
Giorgi Tkhelidze’s response does not come as a As we can see, the main risks are related to eco-
our colleagues remotely, how to supply remote – Medifari and New Technology Impex obtained
services to our clients if they face difficulties, how funding for this purpose during the pandemic. This
to ensure that businesses can adapt to the current list is far from complete.
reality, continue to operate and retain their staff,” TBC is also working closely with the gov-
Mr. Tkheladze explains. ernment. It sponsored the 112thsession of the
When it comes to the subject at hand, TBC has Executive Council of the UN World Tourism
an interesting approach and philosophy. According Organisation. As the leading financier of tourism
to Giorgi Tkhelidze, it is important not to spend in Georgia, the bank decided to provide funding at
too much time thinking about when the pandemic needs-oriented and flexible terms for this sector,
will be over, and instead think more about the which was hit particularly hard by the pandemic,
ways to adapt to the current situation and continue to ensure that when activity in the sector finally
operating. This means that for TBC, it is important restarts, its players are ready and able to operate
to support businesses both in good times, when without hindrance. All forecasts confirm that Geor-
they generate profits, and in challenging times, gia’s economic recovery depends primarily on the
when they most need help. TBC is therefore willing fortunes of the tourism sector. TBC has provided a
to take more risks and then work with businesses total of GEL 130 million in funding for the hospital-
on risk management, rather than take the easy ity industry.
route of refusal. Thus, supporting businesses in difficult times
A good example is Lopota. “Goga Maisuradze is not only an emotional matter for TBC, but also a
explained to us that it would be important for his pragmatic business decision made by the market
leader. “30% is emotion, and 70% is business deci- with situational analysis, as approximately 90%
sion. If you do not take appropriate risks and then of businesses are TBC clients. The company has
work with businesses to exit the crisis, it means that collected countless data on sales, turnover and
you are actually deepening that crisis. The welfare dynamics in individual sectors and the economy as
of businesses and banks is interconnected, espe- a whole. This information is collectively analyzed
cially in the medium-term. If you do not help busi- in TBC’s weekly public reports. “If we detect
nesses overcome challenges, then the crisis could recovery dynamics or signs of life in a project, then
also engulf the bank,” Giorgi Tkhelidze explains. we continue supporting it, as well as funding new
The National Bank of Georgia, in their role as projects,” Giorgi Tkhelidze explains.
regulator, ensures that systemically important TBC has also implemented the practice of hold-
banks do not take excessive risks. This forms the ing regular webinars about COVID-19 and the mac-
second part of Mr. Tkhelidze’s response to my roeconomic outlook. According to Giorgi Tkhelidze,
question. while the situation can change from one webinar to
The Deputy CEO of TBC views the bank regula- another (at times quite radically), the question/an-
tion policy positively, effectively admitting that swer format creates a more complete picture, reduc-
NBG’s conservative approach towards market regu- ing uncertainty and making the prospect of adapting
lation before the pandemic, for which it was often to the pandemic appear more realistic.
criticized, has a positive effect during the crisis TBC also understands that the pandemic is
with regards to bank capitalization and liquidity. a global threat.The bank ensures that its best
“NBG will probably feel proud of itself for a long practices and examples arefar more diverse than
time,” Giorgi Tkhelidze remarks, and I can once just those on the local market. Sharing them during
again detect a smile behind his face mask as he the pandemic can be priceless. For that reason,
recalls how thoroughly the National Bank and TBC the bank even invited international management
discussed the responsibilities of large borrowers: consultants for a three-hour session with Tegeta.
“Corporate loans are the least problematic, as we “They wanted to conduct a detailed analysis to
pursued adequate lending policies. We had capital find out what the best global practices were, what
buffers to establish additional reserves for insuring kind of mistakes are made and by whom, and how
crisis-related risks.” According to Mr. Tkheladze, to correctly plan and re-adjust the business model
the financial system of Georgia is still capable of to ensure that businesses can adapt to the existing
overcoming minor shocks, although uncertainty situation. They gathered plenty of good ideas,” Mr.
remains a major challenge. Tkhelidze says about Tegeta. The same was the
This is the third and final part of Giorgi Tkhe- case with the hotel business.
ladze’s response. In his view, an important part of Hospitality and entertainment are the worst-
the role and responsibilities of TBC as a leading affected sectors today – the hotel and restaurant
company is providing its partners with profession- sector shrank by almost 40% in 2020, while the
al advice and sectoral or macroeconomic analysis arts, entertainment and leisure sector shrank by
in times of uncertainty: “We regularly talk to our 19%. “From what we can see, only a small part of
clients, and these talks can be difficult and intense. the sector is able to function. During the summer,
Difficult situations often require correct but pain- this segment will be able to service the interest on
ful decisions, but we remain realistic. Apart from their debtat best. As for the rest, we are just waiting
providing financial services, we also act as advis- for a more active period to get them on their feet,”
ers and experts. Our analytical and consistently Giorgi Tkhelidze tells me.
updated reports allow us to do that. Together with Real estate and related sectors have been able
our partners, we create realistic expectations based to better adjust to the pandemic – partly due to the
on joint discussions that lead to correct decisions.” state subsidy program, partly due to infrastructure
Such is Mr. Tkhelidze’s firm position. projects, and partly through their own efforts. This
Being the market leader clearly helps TBC sector shrank by 5%. “If the situation becomes
good reputation and brand recognition no longer at leastsome of their issues online. The picture
need to pay high prices in city centers. They can is not so one-sided when working from home.
easily rent a space further away for a tenth of the According to a recent survey, 74% of TBC employ-
price, set up a kitchen and start delivering,” Giorgi ees view remote work positively, as it has raised
Tkhelidze explains. “There are several such com- their quality of life and happiness. However, when
panies on the market already, while several others work-related activities have to be conducted in the
have turned this approach into their development same space where children are being raised, and
strategy. Most of these businesses have managed when it becomes harder for colleagues to commu-
to retain a large section of their staff thanks to nicate and exchange advice, online work becomes
delivery services.” more time and energy consuming. “We are grate-
Secondly, there is growing demand for data ful, and at the same time, we are thinking about
analytics, which encourages companies to be more how to resolve this issue moving forward,” says
transparent. Giorgi Tkhelidze also provides specific Giorgi Tkhelidze. At this point, TBC provides all its
examples for this: “For instance, supermarkets and employees who wish to work remotely with that
hotels are actively exchanging data. We now pro- opportunity. According to the current statistics,
duce such data and supply them to a growing num- approximately 20-25% of staff choose to work from
ber of companies. Demand is growing, which is the office.
good. The next stage will be for companies to start The final observation is that the pandemic seems
producing and analyzing this data themselves, to have erased borders by strengthening online chan-
and we will gladly help them in this process,” Mr. nels. TBC Bank knows this better than others. Giorgi
GIORGI IS THE CEO OF A SUCCESS- gagement. How can he expect employees to be engaged
FUL COMPANY. He takes a lot of courses and when they are in a culture of fear? Fear of making a
keeps himself up to date with management trends. mistake, of not knowing, of admitting failure, of asking
He is convinced that his workforce is the basis for for help, of losing to the competition, and so on.
the company’s success, but he was not aware before He had no clue before reading Simon Sinek’s book
reading Simon Sinek’s latest book – The Infinite Game how to train his managers to find hidden treasure.
– that he possessed hidden treasure. Simon Sinek explains that by using Leo Methodology
Can an unmotivated employee perform at his or her over a one-year program,the forty people compos-
best? Of course not. When he read Gallup’s employee ing the URSA team– Shell’s largest oil rig in the world
engagement survey, he was shocked. He would never valuedat$5.5 Billion – learnt to trust one another and
have guessed that 70% of his employees did not like become a trusting team.
their job and some 20% were actively disengaged. This Giorgi loved a specific paragraph that describes the
means that they were working against the company; culture of a trusting team:
they had no problem speaking badly about their boss When we work on a Trusting Team, we feel safe
or about the company itself. to express vulnerability. We feel safe to raise our
Giorgi always knew that employee engagement hands and admit we made a mistake, be honest about
could be a gold mine, but he never guessed how big shortfalls in performance, take responsibility for our
that mine might be. It is huge! He thought that if it was behavior and ask for help. Asking for help is an exam-
addressed effectively, the company could gain a lot. ple of an act that reveals vulnerability. However, when
Giorgi was conscious that most employees put on a Trusting Team, we do so with the confidence that
their interests before the interest of their team. He was our boss or our colleagues will be there to support us.
conscious that his managers were in competition with “Trust is the stacking and layering of small moments
one another to get his praise. He liked that they had a and reciprocal vulnerability over time,” says Brené
certain level of fear, it gave him leverage on them. He Brown, research professor at the University of Houston
never thought that this level of fear would cascade on in her book Dare to Lead. “Trust and vulnerability
the levels below creating a distrusting culture. grow together, and to betray one is to destroy both.”
You can understand Giorgi’s surprise and joy after he This paragraph highlighted the culture of a trusting
read The Infinite Game. He realized that what he thought team. The question for Giorgi was to decide which kind
was effective had a boomerang effect on employee en- of management style he wanted? Did he want his man-
were engaged in creating a culture of valued then come home feeling fulfilled, Giorgi felt good about his thinking
trust and support. What if they choose he felt really inspired. process and made his decision.
25 Years in the
Legal Business
In the 1990s, few people in Georgia
viewed the legal profession as a busi-
ness. Founded in 1995, the Kordzadze
Law Office offered its clients innovative
services and a progressive approach
that may have seemed outrageous at the
time but ensured that the company’s list
of loyal clients now includes dozens of
successful companies, while local and
international index firms routinely list
the law office and its founders as a top-
category representative of the legal pro-
fession. We spoke to Zviad Kordzadze
– a lawyer with bold ideas, hundreds of
cases won and interesting views that
extend beyond the field of law.
BY ELENE CHOMAKHIDZE
PHOTOS: KHATUNA KHUTSISHVILI
Aside from any widely accessible standard and operated by Mkhedrioni men like a customs
information, who is Zviad Kordzadze? How did checkpoint. Then we had to deal with burst tires in
you establish yourself as a successful lawyer, and Mtskheta, before finally reaching Tbilisi and starting to
what helped you achieve such impressive results? sell our product. We were left with very little money.
People who started their business in the 1990s, when Afterwards we conducted similar activities on several
business image and reputation were not viewed as a occasions. What I am trying to say is that even before
key advantage, learned a lot through trial and error. We becoming a lawyer, I was always looking for ways to
helped establish the sectors in which we were operating. make money. I therefore approached the legal profes-
It was my generation that shaped the legal business sion as a business from the very beginning. We only
as we know it today. This may sound strange to some had the Bar Association in Georgia at the time. They
people now, but we started out at a time when there asked me to pay $500 for membership. Instead, I de-
were no meeting spaces or anything else. For example, cided to start my own business – not as a private lawyer,
when I first saw an electronic weather board at a petrol but as a law office, together with my partners Gocha
station in Tbilisi, that is when I started to hope that we Svanadze and Irakli Okruashvili. We were the first law
would become part of the modern world. To give you an firm in Georgia to be paid for our services by the hour.
idea about the environment in which I started practicing People even joked that Kordzadze had an hourglass on
law, we composed our first business documents and his table, making money each time he flipped it over.
regulations with the help of the Norton programme, We introduced monthly fees, as well as the concept of a
which was little more than a typewriter with a blue family lawyer. All of this meant that we were conduct-
screen. If we wanted to send a message, we had to wait ing business. We were doing so in an organized manner
two minutes for the computer to establish a connection and by observing all formalities, signing agreements,
with the web, and a similar amount of time to send the and paying taxes.
document. Georgia did not even have mobile phones
at that time. My first piece of business equipment was a What motivated you as a lawyer to remain in this
pager that was given to me by a client who wanted me business?
to contact him in case of a problem. All of this may seem I can tell you exactly what motivated me. As part
funny right now, but that is what we had to deal with. of the joint program carried out by the Embassy of the
United States in Georgia and USAID, I travelled to the US
We are no longer surprised to see every new idea in 1996. I was working for the Young Lawyers’ Associa-
or undertaking being viewed from a commercial tion back then, and I was one of several representatives
perspective, but that was not the case when you of successful NGOs who were chosen to travel and meet
started your firm. When did you start viewing their American counterparts. We held meetings in sev-
the legal profession as a business, rather than eral states, the final stop being New York. This was when
just a job? I fell into a state of amazement from which I still have
Before practicing law, I had some experience in the not recovered. Just imagine – you live in Tbilisi without
field of small business. Nothing substantial, but still… electricity, natural gas, or hot water, and suddenly you
When my parents were unable to continue supporting find yourself in New York City. I lived two streets down
me financially, I had to do something. My friends and from Broadway and got a sore neck as I looked up at the
I decided to transport unlicensed Coca-Cola from the skyscrapers for four days in a row. I barely slept. Other
Kutaisi lemonade factory to Tbilisi and sell it to local cities impressed me too, but New York left a particular
shops. This was happening during the Mkhedrioni era, impression. It was also the first time I found myself
and it was an extremely bold move by us. We loaded inside the office of a proper legal firm – on the 47th floor,
two small vehicles with bottles and set off for the with numerous desks, and lots of light. This experience
capital. We were stopped by armed men on several changed my life. I saw that there are successful countries
occasions. They drank some of our Coke, kept some and cities where people can live in good conditions by
more for themselves, and let us proceed. We took a taking advantage of the opportunities that they have. I
detour around the Rikoti tunnel, which was controlled asked myself: even if we cannot live likein the US, can
This approach has paid off, as our partner lawyers have winemaking, which means that this is more than
their own loyal clients and are being contacted directly just a hobby for you. How long have you been
by them, ensuring that the law firm can act more inde- involved in viticulture, and what are your plans in
pendently. I was CEO of the Georgian Industrial Group this field?
(GIG) for several years, meaning that the office received I have been interested in winemaking for almost
less attention and involvement from me during this fifteen years. I certainly did not spare any resources to
period. I even stopped attending court cases for a while. get to the point where I am today – offering custom-
I had to choose between continuing to work for GIG and ers a distinguished, high-quality product. I am at the
returning to the law office. Having gone back, it took me stage where the branding and external packaging for
two to three years to bring the firmback to a certain level my wine is finished, and it is ready to be sold. Barbales
as a brand. That is no longer the case today. Marani has its own website and delivery service, which
is an essential part of commerce during the pandemic.
Numerous local and international law firms have The winery itself is located on Gorgasali Street, inside a
moved into the Georgian market in recent years. 19th century cellar. The grand opening was delayed due
What competitive advantages does the Kordzadze to the pandemic, but it will definitely happen in the
Law Office have over them? spring. This will not be an ordinary winery, but a center
Our main competitive advantage is that we have for tourism offering customers somewhat different and
never focused on one specific field of law. Our objective interesting services. As for the wine, there will be more
since the day we founded the firm was to provide each than ten different varieties on offer. Additionally, we
client with comprehensive legal services regardless will be selling our unique line of fruity alcoholic drinks,
of whether they were looking for a criminal, civil, starting with the raspberry-flavored beverage that is
administrative, corporate or tax lawyer. This always ready to be launched. I believe that consumers will like
gives us the edge over our competitors, which becomes it. We will also have something interesting and exclu-
apparent in times of crisis. For example, when the fall sive for the Georgian market. Barbales Marani will be
in foreign investment affected law firms that worked selling Rose Miraval – the renowned brand produced by
in this specific field, we were able to balance the deficit Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie’s winery. Football fans and
through other areas of law. others will be able to try the wine from Andres Iniesta’s
vineyard. Naturally, we do not intend to stop there. We
As in other industries, success in law is measured have more interesting ideas and plans. Negotiations
by specific achievements. What are the achieve- about exporting our products are ongoing.
ments that Zviad Kordzadze and the Kordzadze
Law Office can boast after twenty-five years in the Zviad Kordzadze Publishing, Barbales Marani,
sector? academic activities at the Georgian-American Uni-
In our case, success can be measured not only by versity and Tbilisi State University – are you sure
customer satisfaction, but also the annual indexes you are not turning away from the field of law?
published by influential local and international compa- Abandoning law is something I cannot do. If I invest
nies. For example, the survey conducted by Chambers twenty-five years of my life in those other activities,
& Partners is based on objective methodology that then I might start thinking about changing profession.
excludes any form of bias. In-depth market research I would describe my recent undertakings, including
is used to identify the best law firms and individual publishing and winemaking, as diversification of my
lawyers. My law office and I occupy leading positions in activities. These were my hobbies that turned into
these rankings on a regular basis. The company has also something more as I accumulated a certain degree of
held the Golden Brand status of the best law firm of the experience. They required the same attitude from me
year for several years in a row. that I showed towards law. Whatever I do, I must en-
sure that it is done thoroughly and to a high standard. I
Let us talk about Barbales Marani. I read in an hope I will be as successful in publishing and winemak-
interview that you have invested GEL 100,000 in ing as I was with my law office.
BESO NAMCHAVADZE
How do We Stabilize
Georgian Lari
IN 2020, GEORGIA’S CAPITAL OUT- Furthermore, the Georgian economy shrank by 6.2%,
FLOW exceeded inflow by $2 billion. The negative thereby reducing demand for the lari.
balance (current account deficit) increased by $1 billion year- The local currency would have depreciated even further,
on-year. That is the main reason for the recent devaluation had the government not taken on an additional $1.8 billion
of the local currency. in foreign debt. These funds were mainly transferred to the
Traditionally, Georgia loses the most amount of dollars foreign currency reserves of the National Bank of Georgia
through foreign trade in goods. Until 2020, the country was (NBG), which proceeded to sell $873 million on the local
able to significantly offsetthese losses with trade in services. currency market in 2020, and $243 million between Janu-
For example, the negative balance of foreign trade in goods ary and April 2021. In just over one year since the start of
in 2019 was $3.7 billion, while the positive balance of trade the pandemic, NBG has sold a total of $1.1 billion, thereby
in services was $2.2 billion, meaning that the total negative slowing the depreciation of the lari.
trade balance was reduced to $1.5 billion. Changes in the currency exchange rate, foreign trade and
In 2020, the negative foreign trade balance was $3.1 other foreign economic relations constitute a joint dynamic
billion, which is $585 million less than the 2019 figure. The process. If it were not for the depreciation of the lari against
fall in imports ($1.2 billion) exceeded the fall in exports ($615 the dollar, Georgia’s external balance (current account
million), resulting in an improved balance. However, the deficit) would have been even more negative.
balance of foreign trade in services worsened by $2 billion, The pandemic reduced the demand for the dollar in
meaning that the overall balance of foreign trade in goods Georgia, as economic activity and internal demand de-
and services worsened by $1.5 billion compared to 2019. creased. Low internal demand reduces imports and outflow
The worsening of the foreign balance of trade in services of foreign currency. Had it not been for the increase in the
was caused by the suspension of tourism due to Coronavi- budget deficit and the launching of new social and subsidy
rus. The amount spent by visitors to Georgia decreased from programs by the government, internal demand would have
$3.3 billion in 2019 to $542 million in 2020, representing a fallen even further. The increase in expenditure was partly
$2.7 billion fall in revenues. The amount of money spent by justified, as it served to support citizens who lost their
Georgians abroad also decreased by $477 million, meaning jobs because of the pandemic. On the other hand, higher
that Georgia lost a total of $2.3 billion from the suspension expenditure means higher government debt and more
of tourism in 2020. negative pressure on the local currency.
Along with tourism, foreign currency inflows were sig- The initial expectations in 2020 were that the country
nificantly affected by a decrease in foreign direct investment would overcome the pandemic in a few months, and it
and foreign portfolio investment by $1.3 billion in total. would just be a minor problem by 2021. Now these expecta-
US Inflation:
Set for Take-off?
How high is the ongoing US fiscal expansion likely to push inflation? This
column presents new evidence that underlying (weighted median) CPI
inflation has so far steadily declined since the start of the COVID-19 crisis,
broadly as predicted by its historical Phillips curve relation. If the ongoing
fiscal expansion reduces unemployment to 1.5-3.5%, as some predict,
underlying inflation could rise to about 2.5-3% by 2023. If the fiscal expansion
is temporary and monetary policy remains clearly communicated and
decisive, there is little risk of a 1960s-type inflationary spiral.
HOW HIGH MIGHT INFLATION rise in the US in might rise depending on how low unemployment falls with the
the coming years? Blanchard (2021) and Summers (2021) caution government spending expansion.
that the recent $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA),
together with the fiscal expansion passed in 2020, may push US INFLATION: PUZZLE DURING
unemployment low enough to cause overheating and surging in- THE COVID-19 CRISIS?
flation. Others, such as Gopinath (2021), see a persistent surge in To understand recent inflation behaviour, we separate it into
price pressures as unlikely, and Powell (2021) argues that the rise two components: (1) underlying inflation that reflects macroeco-
in inflation will be “neither particularly large nor persistent”. nomic conditions (the Phillips curve); and (2) a transitory compo-
The purpose of this column is two-fold. First, to re-assess nent arising from changes in relative prices due to microeconomic
how strongly US inflation responds to the unemployment rate, factors. We measure underlying inflation using weighted median
including since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, with a focus on CPI inflation data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,
underlying (core) inflation. Second, to predict how high inflation which indicate the price change at the 50th percentile (in terms
Note: Quarterly data. Long-term forecast = SPF 10-year-ahead forecast. Natural rate from CBO.
of consumption basket weights) of the tions. During the 2017-19 expansion, it was long-term forecasted level than could have
distribution of price changes in a given on average below the long-term expected been expected given the rise in unemploy-
month. This approach filters out extreme level for CPI inflation based on the Survey ment. However, the labour market was
price movements from various components of Professional Forecasters (SPF). During very unusual in 2020, with a large share
such as, for example, the record 84% fall the COVID-19 crisis, it fluctuated widely of job losers on temporary layoff due to
in cell phone service prices in March 2017 from -1.1% in 2020Q2 – the largest fall in lockdown measures, and, with prospects
(annualised) which prompted commentary the series’ history – with record drops in of regaining employment, having arguably
by then Fed Chair Yellen.1 airline fares, lodging, apparel, and motor little effect on wage bargaining and price
Underlying (median CPI) inflation vehicle insurance prices, to a rise of 3.9% dynamics. When we exclude job losers
has moved closely with macroeconomic in 2020Q3, when several of these one-off on temporary layoffs from the unemploy-
conditions in recent years (Figure 1). Dur- price drops rebounded, providing a noisy ment rate (right panel), the puzzle fades
ing 2017-19 when unemployment declined signal of underlying inflation. The CPI and inflation is broadly in line with its pre-
well below Congressional Budget Office excluding food and energy will probably pandemic Phillips curve relation.
(CBO) estimates of its natural rate, median rise sharply in 2021Q2 on a year-over-year Our Phillips curve estimates based on
CPI inflation rose above 2.5% (quarter- basis, but this will reflect base effects from quarterly data for 1985-2019 imply that a
over-quarter). In 2020, when unemploy- the record 2020Q2 drop rather than a rise 1 percentage point fall in the unemploy-
ment sharply increased, median CPI in underlying inflation. ment rate should raise median CPI infla-
inflation steadily declined, reaching a low We examine if, during the COVID-19 cri- tion by 0.24 percentage points (the 95%
of 1.6% in 2021Q1. sis, median CPI inflation has moved in line confidence interval is 0.17–0.31 percentage
By contrast, an often-used simpler with its pre-pandemic relation with unem- points). We find little evidence of non-lin-
measure of core inflation based on the CPI ployment – the Phillips curve – and at first earity with inflation rising faster at lower
excluding food and energy prices has not there is a puzzle. As Figure 2 (left panel) rates of unemployment so far, despite the
reliably reflected macroeconomic condi- illustrates, inflation was higher above its sample including times of low unemploy-
ECONOMICS INFLATION
Note: Inflation gap = inflation – long-term SPF forecast. Unemployment gap = unemployment – CBO natural rate, 4-quarter average.
ment.2 Our Phillips curve slope estimate of conditions that prevailed after the has averaged below median PCE inflation
is similar to that of Blanchard et al. (2015) global financial crisis – although such by about 0.5 percentage points reflect-
(about 0.2) and of Hazell and others (2020) large multipliers might not apply now ing disinflationary relative price changes,
(0.25 for median CPI inflation). with the rapid recovery. A substantial fall could, if these persist, be in the 1.8–2.3%
in unemployment could also occur with range. Such outcomes would be broadly
HOW HIGH MIGHT smaller multipliers but with additional consistent with the Fed’s average inflation
INFLATION RISE? fiscal stimulus beyond the ARPA. In this targeting strategy with inflation modestly
Based on our Phillips curve estimates, case, our estimates imply that median CPI overshooting its long-term level following
we investigate how high inflation might inflation would rise to 2.9% by 2023. To in- a number of years of undershooting it.
rise under two unemployment scenarios. vestigate this scenario further, we consider
First, we consider the April 2021 IMF a steeper Phillips curve slope – the upper UPSIDE RISKS
World Economic Outlook baseline, which bound of our aforementioned confidence Inflation could rise higher than we
reflects the IMF staff’s assessment of the band, a slope of 0.31. In this case, median envisage if expectations de-anchor and
ARPA and earlier fiscal packages, with the CPI inflation reaches 3.1%. rise with actual inflation, resulting in a
unemployment rate falling to 3.6% by 2023, Overall, our estimates imply median self-fulfilling inflationary spiral. How
about 0.8pp below the CBO natural rate CPI inflation rising to about 2.5–3.0% by likely is such a scenario – which has not
(Figure 3). Based on our estimated Phillips 2023. PCE inflation, on which the Federal materialised for several decades – to occur
curve, median CPI inflation would then rise Reserve focuses, and which has aver- with the temporary pandemic relief pack-
to 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter) by 2023. aged about 0.2 percentage points below age currently being implemented?
Second, we consider Blanchard’s (2021) CPI inflation over the past decade due to Blanchard (2021) concurs that current
scenario where the unemployment rate methodological differences, would reach Phillips curve estimates do not yield
falls to 1.5%, reflecting larger assumed 2.3–2.8% on a median basis. Inflation of predictions of high inflation but em-
fiscal multipliers calibrated on the basis the PCE excluding food and energy, which phasises that the aforementioned sharp
Note: WEO = IMF World Economic Outlook. ARPA = American Rescue Plan Act. PC = Phillips curve.
fall in unemployment could de-anchor risks. Inflation has undershot its long-term rent temporary government spending for
expectations and steepen the Phillips expected level for much of the past decade pandemic relief causes an inflationary
curve, resulting in a self-perpetuating rise – sometimes by more than the inflation spiral. We expect instead a rise in inflation
in inflation and costly policy trade-offs. overshoot we now predict – with little that is modest and temporary. We have
He cites the example of the 1960s, when evidence of de-anchoring. Also, the struc- focused in this column on the impact of
unemployment persisted below its natural ture of the economy is now more open to the ARPA. The recently unveiled American
rate and inflation rose from below 2% in foreign competition and labour markets Jobs Plan proposal, still under discussion,
1961 to nearly 6% by 1969. are more flexible, which would further would further reduce unemployment,
At the same time, the rise in govern- dampen price pressures. but the spending is likely to be spread
ment spending in the 1960s was not, as Finally, a period of low unemployment over a longer period, be partially offset
Gagnon (2021) underscores, a one-time could have positive supply-side effects, by tax measures, and raise potential
relief bill along the lines of ARPA but further mitigating inflationary pressure output through increased infrastructure
rather reflected longer-term commitments and reducing scarring from the COVID-19 investment. These factors could limit
to finance the Vietnam War and Great crisis. Positive supply-side effects could overheating concerns. Nonetheless, as the
Society programmes. A more appropri- arise, as Ball (2015), Blanchard (2018), plan is being firmed up it is important to
ate reference for today is the temporary Powell (2018) and Yellen (2016) discuss, keep in mind the lessons from the past.
government spending and inflation during as more (discouraged) workers re-enter More persistent and unfunded long-term
the Korean War in the early 1950s. the labour force and efficiency-enhancing commitments with limited supply-side
Moreover, the Fed’s communication job switches increase as labour markets benefits could pose greater inflationary
and policy framework are now more cred- tighten, enhancing human capital through risks. Should such upside risks to inflation
ible and consistent with explicit policy on-the-job training, and prompting invest- arise, they would complicate the exit from
goals than they were in the 1960s and ment as well as research and development. the Fed’s very accommodative monetary
1970s, which further limits de-anchoring Overall, we see little risk that the cur- policy stance.
GELA BARSHOVI
GELA BARSHOVI IS AN INTERNATIONAL AND GEORGIAN TAX ADVISER AND A MANAGING PARTNER OF THE TBILISI-BASED ACCOUNTING/CONSULTING FIRM TPSOLUTION. REGARDING BUSINESS INCORPORATION, TAX
CONSULTATION, AND/OR ACCOUNTING SERVICES, YOU CAN REACH OUT TO HIM DIRECTLY AT [email protected].