Forecasting

Room
Availability

Planning of Front Office Operation

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Forecasting Definition
Forecasting is a technique to estimate, based on
historical figures, expectations, trends, and/or
experience, a certain value of an uncontrollable
variable for a certain future period of time

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Benefits of Forecasting:
In our industry reservation forecasting is very useful in the
following ways:
➔ It helps reservation / revenue manager to project future
volume of business / revenue.
➔ The volume of business will help the FOM and the
management to plan the following:
1) Staff requirement in each department for smooth
functioning.
2) Minimum inventory of items to carry out their tasks
efficiently.
3) Allocation of resources to serve the guests in the best
possible way
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Benefits

● Decis ion on when the rooms are to be

placed on out of order s tatus for deep
cleaning, maintenance & replacement
requirements of the furniture, fixtures .
● Special arrangements to be made for the
arrival of groups , CIPs and VIPs

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Essentials ★ A thorough knowledge of the hotel and its surrounding

for areas.

Forecasting ★ Market profiles of the constituencies the hotel serves.

★ Occupancy data for the past several months and for the
same period of the previous year.

★ Reservation trends and a history of reservation lead

times.

★ A list of special events scheduled in the surrounding

geographical area.

★ Business & historical profiles of specific groups

booked for the forecast dates.

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 ★ Plans for remodeling or renovating the hotel
that would change the number of available
rooms.

★ Construction or renovation plans for the

Following are competitive hotels in the area.
required for
★ Turn-down statistics.
forecasting:
★ Cancellation statistics.

★ Wash out percentage

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Types of Daily occupancy data are
required for forecasting:
➔ Number of expected room arrivals
➔ Number of expected walk-ins

Forecasting
➔ Number of expected stayovers
➔ Number of expected room no shows
Number of expected room
Data
➔
understays
➔ Number of expected room check
outs
➔ Number of expected overstays

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Percentage of No-Shows
=Number of Room No-Shows X 100
Number of Room Reservations

Purpose: Helps front office managers decide when (and

if) to sell rooms to
walk-in guests when the hotel is near full occupancy.

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Percentage of Walk- Ins
Number of Room Walk-ins X 100
Total Number of Room Arrivals

Purpose: Helps front office managers know how many walk -ins to expect,
especially when the hotel is near full occupancy

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Percentage of Overstays

Number of Overstay Rooms X 100

Number of Expected Check outs

Purpose: Alerts front office managers to potential problems when the hotel is near
full occupancy and rooms have been reserved for arriving guests.

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 Percentage of Understays
Number of Understay Rooms
Number of Expected Check outs

Purpose: Alerts front office manager to probable additional room

availability when the hotel is near full occupancy.

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How to control Understay

● Confirm or reconfirm guest’s DOD at Understay rooms

registration
● present an alternate guestroom Overstays
reservation form to registered guest
● Review guest history
● Contact potential overstay guests,
especially those who have not left by
check-out time

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Total number of guestrooms
– Out-of-order rooms Forecast
– Stayovers
Formula /
– Reservations
+ Reservations X no-show percentageRoom
+ Understays availability
– Overstays
= Number of rooms available for sale
Formula

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Find the Rooms Available
for Sale

Total Rooms of the hotel = 300 ,

Out Of Order = 15

Stay over gues t = 150 ,Expected Check in=90

No s how = 20% , Expected Checkout = 100

Unders tay =18 % & Overs tay = 8%

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Solution
Total number of guestrooms (300)
– Out-of-order rooms(-15)
– Stayovers(-150)
– Reservations (-90)
+ Reservations X no-show percentage (90 X .20)(+18)
+ Understays ( 18 %=x /100)(+18)
– Overstays (8 %= y/100)(-8)
= Number of rooms available for sale (73)

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 Find the Rooms
Available for Sale
● Total Rooms of the hotel = 200 ,
● Out Of Order = 10
● Stay over guest = 100 ,Expected Check in=50
● No show = 10% , Expected Checkout = 50
● Understay =20 % & Overstay = 10%
● Day use room is 10. No.of Check in also includes 10 rooms
which are day use.

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Solution
Total number of guestrooms (200)
– Out-of-order rooms(-10)
– Stayovers(-100)
– Reservations (-40)
+ Reservations X no-show percentage (50 X .10)(+5)
+ Understays ( 20 %=x /50)(+10)
– Overstays (10%= y/50)(-5)
= Number of rooms available for sale (60)

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Find the Rooms
Available for Sale
Hotel Crown Palace is a property of 300
rooms . On 23 rd Augus t it has 10 rooms as
OOO, 10 rooms of OOS Hous e Us e Rooms =10
& 10 are Complimentary rooms . On a particular
day, there are 100 s tayovers gues t & 100 more
s cheduled to arrive. No s how % is 15.The
expected checkout is 100 rooms . Room
unders tay from his torical data s ugges t 20% &
30 % overs tay.

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Solution
Total number of guestrooms (300)
– Out-of-order rooms(-10)
– Stayovers(-100)
– Reservations (-100)
+ Reservations X no-show percentage (100 X .15)(+15)
+ Understays ( 20 %=x /100)(+20)
– Overstays (30 %= y/100)(-30)
= Number of rooms available for sale (95)

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Forecasting
Techniques

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Type Characteristics Strengths Weaknesses

Executive A group of managers meet Good for strategic or new- One person's opinion can
opinion & come up with a forecast product forecasting dominate the forecast

Market Uses surveys & interviews Good determinant of It can be difficult to develop
research to identify customer customer preferences a good questionnaire
preferences

Delphi method Seeks to develop a Excellent for forecasting Time consuming to develop
consensus among a group long-term product demand,
of experts technological changes, and
scientific advances

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Time Series
Method

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 TEN- DAY OCCUPANCY FORECAST

Location_______________________ Week Ending ______________________

Date Prepared__________________ Prepared By ______________________

To be submitted to all department head at least one week before the first day listed on the forecast.

1. Date and Day(Start week and end week the Fr. Sa. Su. Mo. Tu. Wd. Th. Fr. Sa. Su.
same as the payroll schedule)
2.Estimated Departures
3.Reservation Arrivals- Group(Taken from Log
Book)
4.Reservation Arrivals- Individual(Taken from
Log Book)
5.Future Reservations
6.Expected Walk- Ins
7.Total Arrivals
8.Stay Overs
9.Total Forecasted Rooms
10.Occupancy Multiplier
11.Forecasted Number of Guests
12.Actual rooms Occupied(Taken from Daily
Report)
13.Forecasted Variances(Difference between
forecast and rooms occupied on daily report)
14.Explanation (to be completed by Front Office Supervisor and submitted to General Manager, attach additional 23
memo if necessary)
THREE- DAY FORECAST
Date of Forecast:_____________________ Forecast Compared By____________________

Total Rooms In Hotel:_________________

Tonight Tomorrow 3
rd
Night
Day
Date
Previous Night Occupied Rooms
-Expected Departure
-Early Departure
+Unexpected Stay Overs
+Unoccupied Rooms
=Rooms Available for sale
+Expected arrivals
+Walk ins and same day reservations
-No Shows
=Occupied Rooms
=Occupied % 24
=Expected House Count
THANK YOU

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