Guidelines For Avoiding Hurricanes at Sea
Guidelines For Avoiding Hurricanes at Sea
Guidelines For Avoiding Hurricanes at Sea
In order to help account for the inherent errors in hurricane forecasting, a few guidelines should be used
by the mariner in order to limit the potential of a close encounter between ship & storm.
34 KT Rule
For vessels at sea, avoiding the 34 KT wind field of a hurricane is paramount. 34 KT is chosen as the
critical value because as wind speed increases to this speed, sea state development approaches critical
levels resulting in rapidly decreasing limits to ship maneuverability. It also deserves mention that the state
of the sea outside of the radius of 34 KT winds can also be significant enough as to limit course & speed
options available to the mariner and must also be considered when avoiding hurricanes.
1-2-3 Rule
This is the single most important aid in accounting for hurricane forecast track errors (FTE).
Understanding & use of this technique should be mandatory for any vessel operating near a hurricane.
The rule is derived from the latest 10-year average FTE associated with hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
Application of the rule requires information from the TCM and is extremely important to remaining clear of
a hurricane at sea. See Marine Safety Rules of Thumb at right for details on applying this most important
technique.
The 1-2-3 rule establishes a minimum recommended distance to maintain from a hurricane in the Atlantic.
Larger buffer zones should be established in situations with higher forecast uncertainty, limited crew
experience, decreased vessel handling, or other factors set by the vessel master. The rule does not
account for sudden & rapid intensification of hurricanes that could result in an outward expansion of the
34 KT wind field. Also, the rule does not account for the typical expansion of the wind field as a system
transitions from hurricane to extratropical gale/storm.
Assessing Options
Mariners must be cautioned never to leave themselves with only a single navigation option when
attempting to avoid a hurricane. Sea room to maneuver is not a significant factor when operating in the
open waters of the North Atlantic, but becomes extremely important in the confined waters of the Western
Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico. More often than not, early decisions to leave restricted maneuver areas
are the most sensible choice.
For vessels at sea, avoiding the 34 KT wind field of a tropical cyclone is paramount. Any ship in the
vicinity of a tropical cyclone should make every effort to remain clear of the maximum radius of analyzed
or forecast 34 KT winds associated with the tropical cyclone. Knowing that the area of 34 KT around
tropical cyclones is rarely symmetric but instead varies within semi-circles or quadrants is
important. Understanding that each tropical storm or hurricane has it own unique 34 KT wind field are
necessary factors to account for when attempting to remain clear of this dangerous area around a tropical
cyclone. NHC forecasts attempt to define the structure of this wind field and use of the latest TCM in
determining the maximum radius of 34 KT winds is necessary when trying to avoid this dangerous
threshold.
1. Plot the current and forecast tropical cyclone positions taken from the latest TCM.
2. Find the maximum radius of 34 KT winds at the current and each forecast time period of the TCM out
to 72 hours.
For example, the radii of 34 KT winds given for the 24 hour forecast position
in the latest TCM are:
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW
Therefore, the maximum radius of 34 KT winds associated with the tropical
cyclone at its 24-hour forecast position is 175 NM.
3. Next apply the 1-2-3 rule to each of the radii at the 24, 48, and 72 hour forecast positions.
At the 24-hour forecast position (1 day): add 100 NM to the maximum radius
of 34 KT winds found in the 24 hours forecast of step two.
>>> 175 NM (Forecast radius of 34 KT) + 100 NM = 275 NM
At the 48-hour forecast position (2 days): add 200 NM to the maximum radius
of 34 KT winds found in the 48 hour forecast of step two.
At the 72-hour forecast position (3 days): add 300 NM to the maximum radius
of 34 KT winds found in the 72 hour forecast of step two.
4. Now draw a circle around the 24, 48, and 72 hour forecast positions of the tropical cyclone using the
radii found in step 3.
5. Connect a line tangent to each circle constructed in step 4. The area enclosed by these tangent lines
is known as the danger area of the tropical cyclone and must be avoided as a vessel attempts to
navigate in the vicinity of the tropical cyclone.
Note of caution. This rule establishes a minimum recommended distance to maintain from a tropical
cyclone in the Atlantic Basin. Larger buffer zones can and should be established in situations of tropical
cyclones with large forecast uncertainty, limited crew experience, decreased vessel handling, or other
factors as determined by the vessel master. The 1-2-3 rule does not account for sudden & rapid
intensification of tropical cyclones that could result in a rapid outward expansion of the 34 KT wind
field. Also, the 1-2-3 rule does not account for the typical outward expansion of the wind field as a system
transitions from tropical cyclone to extratropical gale or storm in the North Atlantic. Finally, mariners
should not equate the radius of 34 KT winds with the area of 12-foot seas in the vicinity of a tropical
cyclone. The 1-2-3 rule relies solely on avoiding the radius of 34 KT winds in a tropical cyclone and does
not take sea heights into consideration. Vessels with lower sea keeping limits should also make
adjustments to the 1-2-3 rule in order to minimize exposure to seas that will dangerously hamper ship
stability and maneuverability. The radius of current 12-foot seas is issued in the TCM and can serve as a
gauge for vessels with lower sea keeping limits in order to remain clear of potentially damaging higher
seas. Further guidance on forecasted seas in excess of 12 feet in the vicinity of any active tropical
cyclone is available in the Atlantic High Seas Forecasts issued by TPC and MPC.