DRAFT Qualls Polling Memo

MINNESOTA STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM
DATE: Tuesday, November 30, 2021

TO: Draft Kendall Qualls for Governor Committee
FROM: Brock McCleary – VP, Polling
Tiffany Beverly – Director, Project Management
RE: Survey of Likely General Election Voters
The information below was gathered by Cygnal through an advanced multi-mode (Live + SMS + Email)
survey of likely general election voters in Minnesota, conducted November 22, 2021 – November 23,
2021. This survey has a sample size of n522 and a MoE of ±4.29% at a 95% confidence interval.
Summary & Insights

Voters are disenchanted with Democratic leadership both on the state and national level, and they are
looking for the right Republican candidate to step in. Governor Tim Walz is vulnerable—his image is
underwater, over half of voters don’t feel that he deserves reelection, and a generic Republican
candidate outpaces him on a hypothetical gubernatorial ballot.
Kendall Qualls has an excellent opportunity to show voters that he is their ideal Republican
candidate. After testing several descriptions of potential candidates against Gov. Walz, Qualls’
background and experience resonated most with voters, and he was the only (unnamed) Republican
candidate to hold a lead over Walz outside of the margin of error. His description was particularly
effective among men, voters 35-49, rural voters, low-income voters, those with no college degree,
those in the Northern region, and voters with a favorable opinion of President Trump, and it garnered
more support from women and Independent voters as well.
Electoral Environment
The majority of voters believe that the state is off on the wrong track (52%), and the sentiment is strong
(34% definitely WT). This opinion holds across most key voter groups outside of Democrats, Urban
voters, college educated voters, and those in the metro area, but many groups are split (women, those
18-34, voters 65+, and high-income earners).
This overall negative sentiment is further reinforced by Governor Tim Walz’s upside-down image
(net fav -2). He’s most unfavorable with men, voters 35-49, Independents and Republicans, rural
voters, low- and middle-income voters, those with no college degree, and those in the Northern region.
Indicating dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership on a national level, President Biden’s image
sinks even further below the waterline, with an abysmal net favorability of -12%.
Voters identified decreasing crime and improving public safety as their clear-cut top priority (35%),
with rebuilding the economy and creating jobs coming in second (25%). Republicans are split between
these two issues, though those with a favorable opinion of President Trump place a higher importance
on decreasing crime.
A generic Republican leads Governor Walz

The generic ballot against Governor Walz gives Republicans a 1% lead and a 3% edge in intensity
(35% definitely GOP candidate, 32% definitely Walz). Partisan support is strong on both sides, and
Independents are split (42% GOP / 41% Walz). 10% of voters are unsure, a group mostly made up of
Independents and voters 35-49. When it comes to testing his reelection, support for Walz is just as
lackluster as his image—over half of voters feel as though it’s time for someone new (51%), including
the majority of Independents and 9% of Democrats.
Generic Republican v. Gov. Walz - Heatmap:
Voters are looking for a candidate like Kendall Qualls

After testing a battery of different Republican candidate
descriptions against the incumbent Governor, Qualls’
background and experience resonated the most with voters
(see left). His unnamed candidate description (first in the table
below) was the only one to surpass Governor Walz outside the
margin of error. His description was particularly effective among
men, voters 35-49, rural voters, low-income voters, those with no
college degree, those in the Northern region, and voters with a
favorable opinion of President Trump, and it gained the
Republican candidate some favor with women and Independent
voters as well. Voters 65+ are split on each of the bio tests,
mirroring their sentiment on the generic ballot. Men firmly support
the Republican candidate across each bio, and women give their
support to Gov. Walz in each scenario aside from the head-to-
head test with Qualls’ bio, where they are split.
Qualls Description v. Gov. Walz - Heatmap:
Bio Head-to-Head Topline Key Groups: GOP / Dem

A Republican candidate who is an African American GOP +9 • Women: 39% / 41%
veteran, businessman, and civic leader who was • Men: 54% / 33%
raised in poverty and became the first in his family to • GOP: 85% / 2%
go to college, or Democratic Governor Tim Walz? • Ind: 46% / 33%
• Dem: 10% / 78%
• Trump fav: 85% / 4%
A Republican candidate who is a suburban female GOP +3 • Women: 37% / 45%
legislator, mother, and CPA who serves as the chair • Men: 48% / 35%
of the Minnesota state legislature’s Health and • GOP: 81% / 3%
Human Services Committee, or Democratic • Ind: 42% / 35%
Governor Tim Walz? • Dem: 7% / 83%
• Trump fav: 84% / 3%
A Republican candidate who is an insurance agent Walz +1 • Women: 35% / 48%
and Pastor from Northern Minnesota and served as • Men: 50% / 38%
the Republican Senate Majority leader in the • GOP: 84% / 2%
Minnesota State Legislature, or Democratic • Ind: 41% / 39%
Governor Tim Walz? • Dem: 6% / 89%
• Trump fav: 84% / 3%
A Republican candidate who is a former state Walz +3 • Women: 35% / 51%
legislator and family practice doctor who called • Men: 50% / 38%
himself a maverick for his stance against COVID • GOP: 84% / 2%
vaccinations, or Democratic Governor Tim Walz? • Ind: 41% / 39%
• Dem: 6% / 89%
• Trump fav: 84% / 3%
METHODOLOGY: This probabilistic survey was conducted November 22-23 with 522 likely general election
voters. It has a margin of error of ±4.29 %. Known registered voters were interviewed via live agents calling
cell phones and landlines, and voters received invitations to participate in the survey via SMS and email with
a secure link tied to their voter record. This survey was weighted to a likely general election universe.
ABOUT CYGNAL: Cygnal is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that
pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal is named
the #1 Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight two cycles running, as well as the #1 most
accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have
worked in 47 states and countries on more than 2,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.

DRAFT Qualls Polling Memo

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

DRAFT Qualls Polling Memo

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

DRAFT Qualls Polling Memo

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

MINNESOTA STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM

DATE: Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Summary & Insights

A generic Republican leads Governor Walz

Voters are looking for a candidate like Kendall Qualls

Qualls Description v. Gov. Walz - Heatmap:

Bio Head-to-Head Topline Key Groups: GOP / Dem

You might also like