LEC 4 Highway Plans Appraisal
LEC 4 Highway Plans Appraisal
LEC 4 Highway Plans Appraisal
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING II
LECTURE 4
INTRODUCTION
• Once a transportation plan has been finalized and the demand
along each of its highway links has been established, a process must
be put in place that helps identify the best solution for each
individual proposal within the highway network.
• Each project must therefore be subject to an appraisal. The aim of
the highway appraisal process is therefore to determine the
economic, societal and environmental feasibility of the project or
group of projects under examination.
• The process enables highway planners to decide whether a project
is desirable in absolute terms and also provides a means of
choosing between different competing project options, all of which
have the ability to meet the stated goals and objectives of the
project sponsors.
Steps of Highway Appraisal
(1) Problem recognition. The decision-maker determines that a problem exists
and that a decision must be reflected on.
(2) Goal identification. The decision-maker details the desired result or out- come of
the process.
(3) Identification of alternative highway schemes. Different potential solutions
are assembled prior to their evaluation.
(4) Information search. The decision-maker seeks to identify characteristics
associated with the alternative solutions.
(5) Assessment of information on alternative highway schemes. The information
necessary for making a decision regarding the preferred option is gathered
together and considered.
(6) Selection of preferred highway scheme. A preferred option is selected by the
decision-maker for implementation in the future.
(7) Evaluation. The decision is assessed a period of time after its implementation in
order to evaluate it on the basis of its achieved results.
Methods of Highway Appraisal
The scheme appraisal process for highway
schemes can be broken down broadly into two
sections:
• economic evaluation
• environmental assessment.
ECONOMIC EVALUATION
• For a given set of goals and policies, different
number of alternative transport plans can be
formulated. The cost of these plans may vary,
and so also the benefits that are likely to
accrue from them.
• Economic analysis is a procedure to select
only those schemes that result in the greatest
benefit from the resources available.
ECONOMIC EVALUATION OBJECTIVES
Economic evaluation :
(i) Determines whether the plan under
consideration is worth investment at all.
(ii ) Ranks schemes competing for scarce resources
in order of priority.
(iii) Compares mutually exclusive schemes and
select the most economic.
(iv) Assists in phasing the programme over a time
period depending upon the availability of resources
ECONOMIC EVALUATION
• Engineering economics provides a number of
techniques that result in numerical values termed
measures of economic worth.
• These, by definition, consider the time value of
money, an important concept in engineering
economics that estimates the change in worth of
an amount of money over a given period of time.
• Computations are performed on the costs and
benefits associated with each highway option in
order to obtain one or more measures of worth
for each.
METHODS OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION
The methods of economic evaluation are broadly categorized as
A. RATE OF RETURN METHODS
• Benefit/cost ratio (B/C)
• First year rate of return method
DISCOUNTING CASH FLOW METHODS
• Net present value (NPV)
• Equivalent Uniform Annual Worth(EUAW)
• Internal rate of return (IRR).
ECONOMIC EVALUATION
• In economic analysis, financial units (CURRENCY) are used as the tangible basis of
evaluation.
• With each of the above ‘measure of worth’techniques, the fact that a quantity of
money today is worth a different amount in the future is central to the evaluation.
• Within the process of actual selection of the best option in economic terms, some
criterion based on one of the above measures of worth is used to select the chosen
proposal.
• When several ways exist to accomplish a given objective, the option with the lowest
overall cost or highest overall net income is chosen.
• While intangible factors that cannot be expressed in monetary terms do play a part in
an economic analysis, their role in the evaluation is, to a large extent, a secondary one.
• If, however, the options available have approximately the same equivalent cost/value,
the non-economic and intangible factors may be used to select the best option.
• Economic appraisal techniques can be used to justify a scheme in absolute terms, in
which case the decision is made on the basis of whether the project is ‘economically
efficient’ or not.
• A negative net present value or a benefit/cost ratio less than unity would indicate an
inefficient scheme where society would end up worse off with the scheme than without
it.
Costs of Transport Projects
Broadly classified as
(i) Capital cost of initial construction
(ii) Costs of delays to vehicles during the period of construction
(iii) Maintenance costs.
The capital cost of providing transport facility should be estimated
accurately, and should include land costs and ancillary costs. Cost of traffic
control and lighting installations and administration should also be
included.
When a large programme of construction of a transport facility is
undertaken, it is inevitable that a good deal of disturbance is caused to
the operation of vehicles. Any significant delays caused tothe vehicles in
this respect should be added to the capital cost.
The maintenance costs are of a recurrent nature and represent the
expenditure to keep the assets in a tolerably good condition in the future
years. The impact of the new scheme on the existing transport network
should be evaluated in determining the maintenance costs.
Benefits of Transport Projects
Broadly categorized as:
(i) Benefits to the existing traffic by way of reduce
operating costs, savings in travel time and reduction
in accidents.
(ii) Benefits to the generated traffic.
(iii) Benefits to traffic diverted from other routes.
(iv) Benefits to the traffic operating of other roads
(and railways) where reduction in traffic has been
caused by the opening up of the new facility.
Savings in time
• The upgrading of a highway installation will invariably reduce travel time as well as
improving the reliability of transport services. For transport users, time has some
connection with money.
• The degree of correlation between the two depends primarily on the manner in
which the opportunities made possible by the increased availability of time are
utilised.
• In general, analyses of the value of time-savings within the cost-benefit framework
focus on distinguishing between travel for work and travel for non-work purposes.
Non-work time includes leisure travel and travel to and from work.
• Within developed economies, the value of working time is related to the average
industrial wage plus added fringe benefits, on the assumption that time saved will
be diverted to other productive uses.
• There is no broad agreement among economic evaluation experts regarding the
valuation of non-work time. Since there is no direct market available that might
provide the appropriate value, values must be deduced from the choices members
of the public make that involve differences in time
Reductions in vehicle operating costs
• This constitutes the most direct potential benefit derived from a new or upgraded
highway project and is one easiest to measure in money terms.
• While the users are the initial beneficiaries of these potential reductions,
circumstances dictated by government policies or competition, or the drive to
maximize profits, might lead to other groups within the broader community having
a share in the ultimate benefit.
• For a highway scheme, the new upgraded project leads to lower levels of
congestion and higher speeds than on the existing roadway, usually resulting in
lower fuel consumption and lower maintenance costs due to the reduced wear
and tear on the vehicles.
• Within a highway cost-benefit analysis, a formula is used which directly relates
vehicle-operating costs to speed. Costs included are both fuel and non-fuel-
based. The higher speeds possible on the new road relative to the existing one
lead to potential monetary savings for each road user.
Reduction in the frequency of
accidents
• Assessing the economic benefit of accident reduction entails two steps.
• In the case of a highway, this requires comparison of the accident rate on the existing unimproved
highway with that of other highways elsewhere in the country (or abroad) constructed to the higher
standard of the proposed new road.
• Normally, the higher the standard of construction of a highway, the lower its accident rate.
• The second step involves the monetary valuation of the accident reduction.
• Three types of damage should be considered:
Property damage
Personal injuries arising from serious accidents
Fatal accidents.
• Property damage to vehicles involved in accidents is the most easily measured in money terms.
Valuations can be obtained directly from the extent of claims on insurance policies.
• The cost of serious but non-fatal accidents is much more difficult to assess. Medical costs and the
cost of lost output and personal pain and suffering constitute a large proportion of the total
valuation.
• There is major disagreement on which method is most appropriate for estimating the economic
cost to society of a fatal accident. In recent times, stated preference survey techniques have been
employed to estimate this valuation. In most cases, an average cost per accident, covering fatal and
non-fatal, is employed, with damage costs also accounted for within the final estimated value.
Benefits to Generated Traffic
• It is proper to consider the full benefits from highway
improvements when dealing with traffic already using the
highway.
• This follows from the reasoning that all those who travelled
before the improvements were carried out must have
placed a value on the trip at least equal to the cost of
travel, and thus they benefit to the full extent when
improvements are made.
• Generated traffic pertains to journeys which were not
worthwhile before the improvements but are worthwhile
after the improvements.
• Benefits to generated traffic are usually assessed at one-
half the change in user costs.
Benefits of Road Projects
Benefits to Diverted Traffic
Transport improvements attract traffic to the improved
facilities from other routes between the same origin and
destination. The benefits derived by diverted traffic
extent of the change in user costs.
Benefits to Traffic on other Roads
Improvements to a road may cause reduction in traffic on
other roads (and railways), thus resulting in lesser
congestion. There may also be congestion on these roads
as a result of the new scheme. These effects should be
evaluated
Environmental Effects
• Traffic plans are likely to result in disbenefits caused by adverse effects on
the environment. On the other hand, certain improvement schemes might
be planned with the objective of improving and preserving the
environment.
• In all such cases, it is necessary to evaluate in monetary terms the impact
of the scheme on the environment. The elements that need consideration
are : noise, fumes, vibration, loss of amenity, severance, visual intrusion
etc. these are amenable to quantification in monetary terms, while some
are not.
• Noise is now considered a significant factor in environmental quality. The
annoyance caused by noise is translated into noise costs by considering
questions such as “how much is an individual affected by noise prepared
to pay to get relief from it" or "how much would the sufferer have to
receive monetarily to reinstate his pre-noise level of satisfaction”
• The disbenefits can be assessed by changes in rents and property values.
• More research is needed before all the environmental effects can be
considered in monetary terms.
Benefits of Road Projects: Comfort and
Convenience
(𝑅𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 − 𝑅𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑈𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑) 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟)
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑 − 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
• The main steps in the technique involve:
• The listing of the main project options,
• The identification and discounting to their
present values of all relevant costs and
benefits required to assess them, and
• The use of economic indicators to enable a
decision to be reached regarding the
proposal’s relative or absolute desirability in
economic terms.
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
• Step 1: Identifying the main project options
The decision-makers compile a list of all relevant
feasible options that they wish to be assessed
It is usual to include a ‘do-nothing’option within the
analysis in order to gauge those evaluated against the
baseline scenario where no work is carried out.
The ‘do-minimum’ option offers a more realistic
course of action where no new highway is constructed
but a set of traffic management improvements are
made to the existing route in order to improve the
overall traffic performance.
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
• Step 1: Identifying the main project options
The term ‘feasible’ refers to options that, on a
preliminary evaluation, present themselves as
viable courses of action that can be brought to
completion given the constraints imposed on the
decision-maker such as lack of time, information
and resources.
Finding sound feasible options is an important
component of the decision process.
The quality of the final outcome can never exceed
that allowed by the best option examined.
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
Step 1: Identifying the main project options
There are many procedures for both identifying and
defining project options. These include:
Drawing on the personal experience of the decision-
maker himself as well as other experts in the highway
engineering field
Making comparisons between the current decision
problem and ones previously solved in a successful
manner
Examining all relevant literature.
BRAINSTORMING
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
Brainstorming consists of two main phases.
Within the first, a group of people put forward, in a relaxed
environment, as many ideas as possible relevant to the
problem being considered. The main rule for this phase is that
members of the group should avoid being critical of their own
ideas or those of others, no matter how far-fetched. This non-
critical phase is very difficult for engineers, given that they are
trained to think analytically or in a judgmental mode (Martin,
1993). Success in this phase requires the engineer’s
judgmental mode to be ‘shut down’. This phase, if properly
done, will result in the emergence of a large number of widely
differing options.
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
• The second phase requires the planning engineer to return
to normal judgmental mode to select the best options from
the total list, analyzing each for technological,
environmental and economic practicality.
• This is, in effect, a screening process which filters through
the best options.
• The option under examination is judged on the basis of
whether it performs better or worse than the conventional
option on each of the listed criteria.
• It is vital that this process is undertaken by highway
engineers with the appropriate level of experience,
professional training and local knowledge in order that a
sufficiently wide range of options arise for consideration.
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
• Step 2: Identifying all relevant costs and benefits
Many of the benefits of improvements to
transport projects equate to decreases in cost.
The primary grouping that contains this type of
economic gain is termed user benefits. Benefits
of this type accrue to those who will actively use
the proposed installation. This grouping includes:
Reductions in vehicle operating costs
Savings in time
Reduction in the frequency of accidents.
Step 2: Identifying all relevant costs
and benefits
Other studies might address in some way a secondary
grouping of benefits –those accruing to ‘non-users’ of the
proposed facility. These include:
• Positive or negative changes in the environment felt by
those people situated either near the new route or the
existing route from which the new one will divert
traffic. These can be measured in terms of the changes
in impacts such as air pollution, noise or visual
intrusion/obstruction.
• The loss or improvement of recreational facilities used
by local inhabitants, or the improvement or
deterioration in access to these facilities.
Step 2: Identifying all relevant costs
and benefits
• The costs associated with a proposed highway
installation can fall into similar categories.
• However, in most evaluations, construction
costs incurred during the initial building
phase, followed by maintenance costs
incurred on an ongoing basis throughout the
life of the project, are sufficient to consider.
Step 4: Economic life, residual value
and the discount rate
• A highway project is often complex and long term, with the costs and
benefits associated with it occurring over a long time frame which we
term the life of the project.
• It sets a limit on the period over which the costs and benefits are
estimated, as all must occur within this time slot, be it 25, 35 or even 50
years or more. It is related, in principle, to the expected lifetime of the
project under analysis.
• Given that transport development projects have the potential to be in
service for a very long time, it may seem impossible to set a limit on the
life of the project with any degree of certainty. In practice, however, this
may not give rise to serious problems in the evaluation, as the loss of
accuracy that results from limiting the life of a project to 35–40 years,
instead of continuing the computation far beyond this point, is marginal to
the analyst undertaking the evaluation. The shortened analysis can be
justified on the basis that, in time equivalent terms, substantial costs
and/or benefits are unlikely to arise in the latter years of the project
Step 4: Economic life, residual value
and the discount rate
• Where this technique is applied after a relatively small
number of years, the project may well have to be
assigned a substantial residual or salvage value,
reflecting the significant benefits still to be accrued
from the project or, conversely, costs still liable to be
incurred by it (a residual value can be negative, as say
for a nuclear power station yet to be decommissioned).
• The difficulty in assigning a meaningful residual value
to a project after so few years in commission results in
this solution being rather unsatisfactory. It is far more
advisable to extend the evaluation to a future point in
time where the residual value is extremely small
relative to its initial value.
Step 4: Economic life, residual value and
the discount rate
• The costs and benefits occur at different times over
this time horizon.
• Because of this, they cannot be directly combined until
they are reduced to a common time frame. This is
achieved using the discount rate, which translates all
costs and benefits to time equivalent values.
• The actual value used is the social discount rate, given
that the decision-maker is interested in the benefits
and costs to society as a whole rather than to any
individual or group of individuals.
Step 5; Use of economic indicators to
assess basic economic viability
• Once the two parameters of project life and
discount rate are set in place, these allow all costs
and benefits to be directly compared at the same
point in time.
• The decision-maker must now choose the actual
mechanism for comparing and analyzing the costs
and benefits in order to arrive at a final answer
for the net benefit of each of the project options
under consideration.
Step 5; Use of economic indicators to
assess basic economic viability
Three techniques used for this purpose:
• Net present value (NPV)
• Internal rate of return (IRR)
• Benefit/cost ratio (B/C).
The NPV will estimate the economic worth of the project in terms
of the present worth of the total net benefits.
The IRR will give, for each option under consideration, the rate at
which the net present value for it equals zero,
The B/C ratio based on the ratio of the present value of the
benefits to the present value of the costs.
For the last two methods, if the options under consideration are
mutually exclusive, an incremental analysis must be carried out to
establish the best performing one in economic terms.
Step 5; Use of economic indicators to assess
basic economic viability
• All three methods depend on discounting to arrive at a
final answer. All, if used correctly, should give answers
entirely consistent with each other, but the specific
technique to be used varies with the circumstances.
Thus, while the chosen technique is, to a certain
extent, down to the preference of the decision-maker,
it is nonetheless dependent on the type of decision to
be taken within the analysis.
• If the decision is whether or not to proceed with a
given project, the result from the chosen technique is
compared with some predetermined threshold value in
order to decide whether the project is economically
justified.
Step 5; Use of economic indicators to assess
basic economic viability
• Once a discount rate/minimum acceptable rate of
return is set, any of the above methods will give the
same result.
• Assuming a discount rate of 10%, the project will be
economically acceptable if the NPV of the net
benefits at 10% exceeds zero, if the IRR is above 10%
or if the B/C ratio at 10% exceeds unity.
FIRST YEAR RATE OF RETURN
• In this simple method, the benefits accuring in the first year of the
scheme's operation alone are compared with the capital costs of
construction.
• The result, expressing the benefits occurring in the first year as a
percentage of the costs, is called the first year rate of return.
𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
FRR =
𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠
• The first year rate of return of a possible scheme gives an indication of
its priority when compared with other schemes, and thus assists in the
selection of the most advantageous scheme.
• The priority for different schemes can also be decided on the basis of
the first year rate of return
NET PRESENT VALUE
• Net present value method is based on the discounted cash
flow (DCF) technique.
• In this method, the stream of costs/benefits associated
with the project over an extended period of time is
calculated and is discounted at a selected discount rate to
give the present value.
• Benefits are treated as positive and costs negative to
compute the net present value is found.
• Any project with a positive net present value is treated as
acceptable.
• In comparing more than one project, a project with the
highest net present value should be accepted.
Net Present Value
• The net present value is expressed as :
𝐵1 −𝐶1 𝐵1 −𝐶1 𝐵𝑛 −𝐶𝑛
𝑁𝑃𝑉0 =(𝐵0 -𝐶0 )+ + 2 +…..
(1+𝑖) (1+𝑖) (1+𝑖)𝑛
(1+0.03)50 −1)
𝑁𝑃𝑊𝐼𝐼 =-220,000 +(-2500+5000+6500+500)(
0.03((1+0.03)50 )
= -220,000+9500(25.729) =--220,000+244, 425=+24,465
(1+0.03)50 −1)
𝑁𝑃𝑊𝐼𝐼𝐼 =-310,000 +(-3000+7000+6000+2800)(
0.03((1+0.03)50 )
= -310,000+12,8000(25.729) =--310000+329, 331=+19,331
The project with highest NPW is alternative II
Solving by the EUAW method.
𝑟(1+𝑟)𝑛
EUAW=NPWX
(1+𝑟)𝑛 −1
244,425
𝐵𝐶𝑅𝐼𝐼/𝐷𝑁 = =1.11
220,000
329,331
𝐵𝐶𝑅𝐼𝐼𝐼/𝐷𝑁 = =1.06
310,000
Compare BCR of Alternative III with respect to Alternative II.
329331−244,425 84,906
= = =0.94
310,000−220,000 90,000
Since BCR is less than 1, we would not select Alternative III.
We reach the same conclusion as previously, which is to select
Alternative II
Solving by Internal Rate of Return
• In this situation, we solve for the value of
interest rate for which NPW= 0
(1+𝑖)50 −1)
𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼 =0=-185,000 +(-1500+5000+3000+500)( 𝑖((1+𝑖)50) =185,000/7000=26.428 i=2.6%
Since the IRR is lower than 3% we discard Alternative I.
(1+𝑖)50 −1)
𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼𝐼 =0=-220,000 +(-2500+5000+6500+500)( 𝑖((1+𝑖)50) =220,000/9500=23.16 i=3.6%
Since IRR is greater than 3%, select Alternative II over DN.