Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC - Operating Model and DCF Analysis: Assumptions
Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC - Operating Model and DCF Analysis: Assumptions
Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC - Operating Model and DCF Analysis: Assumptions
Assumptions:
Share Price:
Xyrem Assumptions:
Total Market Size (# Potential Patients) - Xyrem: 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000
# Patients On Medication at End of Year:
Average # of Patients Throughout the Year: 10,048 12,560 15,072 17,584 20,096 22,608 25,120 27,632 30,144 30,144
Growth Rate in # of Patients: (5.4%) 25.0% 20.0% 16.7% 14.3% 12.5% 11.1% 10.0% 9.1% –
% of Market on Xyrem Medication: 6.4% 8.0% 9.6% 11.2% 12.8% 14.4% 16.0% 17.6% 19.2% 19.2%
Post-Toggle % of Market on Xyrem Medication: 6.4% 8.0% 9.6% 11.2% 12.8% 14.4% 16.0% 17.6% 19.2% 19.2%
Annual Price Per Patient - Xyrem: $ 57,581 $ 61,036 $ 64,698 $ 68,580 $ 72,009 $ 75,609 $ 78,633 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000
Growth Rate in Price per Patient: 7.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Post-Toggle Growth Rate in Price per Patient: 7.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Xyrem - Revenue: $ 578.6 $ 766.6 $ 975.1 $ 1,205.9 $ 1,447.1 $ 1,709.4 $ 1,975.3 $ 276.3 $ 301.4 $ 301.4
Annual Growth Rate: 1.7% 32.5% 27.2% 23.7% 20.0% 18.1% 15.6% (86.0%) 9.1% –
Erwinaze Assumptions:
Total Market Size (# Potential Patients) - Erwinaze: 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600
Average # of Patients on Erwinaze: 612 684 756 828 900 900 972 972 1,044 1,044
Growth Rate in # of Patients: 13.3% 11.8% 10.5% 9.5% 8.7% – 8.0% – 7.4% –
% of Market on Erwinaze Medication: 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 23.0% 25.0% 25.0% 27.0% 27.0% 29.0% 29.0%
Annual Price Per Patient - Erwinaze: $ 332,368 $ 342,339 $ 352,609 $ 363,187 $ 374,083 $ 385,305 $ 396,864 $ 408,770 $ 421,033 $ 433,664
Growth Rate in Price per Patient: 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Erwinaze - Revenue: $ 203.4 $ 234.2 $ 266.6 $ 300.7 $ 336.7 $ 346.8 $ 385.8 $ 397.3 $ 439.6 $ 452.7
Annual Growth Rate: 16.7% 15.1% 13.8% 12.8% 12.0% 3.0% 11.2% 3.0% 10.6% 3.0%
Defitelio Assumptions:
% of EU Market on Defitelio Medication: 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0%
Post-Toggle % of EU Market on Defitelio Medication: 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0%
Annual Price Per Patient - Defitelio: $ 42,832 $ 49,257 $ 56,646 $ 65,143 $ 74,914 $ 86,151 $ 99,074 $ 113,935 $ 131,025 $ 150,679
Growth Rate in Price per Patient: 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Post-Toggle Growth Rate in Price per Patient: 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Defitelio - Revenue: $ 57.8 $ 79.8 $ 107.1 $ 140.7 $ 182.0 $ 209.3 $ 240.7 $ 276.9 $ 318.4 $ 366.1
Annual Growth Rate: 29.4% 38.0% 34.2% 31.4% 29.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Xyrem - Average # of Patients Throughout the Year: 10,048 12,560 15,072 17,584 20,096 22,608 25,120 27,632 30,144 30,144
% of Xyrem Patients on JZP-110 Medication: – – – 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 7.5% 10.0% 10.0% 12.5%
Post-Toggle % of Market on JZP-110 Medication: – – – 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 7.5% 10.0% 10.0% 12.5%
Total JZP-110 Patients: – – – 440 1,005 1,696 1,884 2,763 3,014 3,768
Annual Price Per Patient - JZP-110: $ 57,581 $ 61,036 $ 64,698 $ 68,580 $ 72,009 $ 75,609 $ 78,633 $ 81,779 $ 84,232 $ 86,759
Post-Toggle Growth Rate in Price per Patient: 7.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Other Product Sales: 142.0 156.2 168.7 182.1 193.1 204.7 214.9 225.6 234.7 244.0
Annual Growth Rate: 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Projected
Expense Assumptions: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Projected
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement Drivers: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Projected
Income Statement: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Projected
Balance Sheet: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Projected
Cash Flow Statement: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis - Assumptions and Output:
Exercise
Dilution: Type: Number: Price: Dilution:
0.572 Options A: 0.604 $ 7.37 0.573
0.921 Options B: 0.948 4.00 0.922
1.294 Options C: 1.590 26.09 1.301
1.164 RSUs: 1.164 1.164
3.951 Total: 3.959
Projected
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Projections: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Revenue: $ 981.8 $ 1,236.7 $ 1,517.4 $ 1,847.6 $ 2,202.3 $ 2,547.1 $ 2,905.6 $ 1,311.7 $ 1,446.4 $ 1,560.5
Annual / Annualized Revenue Growth Rate: 12.5% 26.0% 22.7% 21.8% 19.2% 15.7% 14.1% (54.9%) 10.3% 7.9%
Operating Income (EBIT): 248.4 529.2 663.1 812.5 971.9 1,134.6 1,281.1 518.0 576.4 624.9
Annual / Annualized Operating Margin: 25.3% 42.8% 43.7% 44.0% 44.1% 44.5% 44.1% 39.5% 39.9% 40.0%
Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest: (44.7) (95.3) (119.4) (146.3) (174.9) (204.2) (230.6) (93.2) (103.8) (112.5)
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT): 203.7 434.0 543.7 666.3 796.9 930.4 1,050.5 424.8 472.7 512.4
Less: Capital Expenditures: (11.8) (16.1) (21.2) (27.7) (35.2) (43.3) (52.3) (24.9) (28.9) (32.8)
Annual Unlevered Free Cash Flow: 500.6 579.2 706.5 838.5 978.5 1,109.8 1,245.7 769.6 626.7 673.7
Unlevered Free Cash Flow for Remaining Quarters: 420.4 579.2 706.5 838.5 978.5 1,109.8 1,245.7 769.6 626.7 673.7
Net Present Value of Free Cash Flow: 410.0 529.9 598.1 656.9 709.3 744.4 773.2 442.0 333.0 331.3
Normal Discount Period: 0.647 1.647 2.647 3.647 4.647 5.647 6.647 7.647 8.647 9.647
Mid-Year Discount Period: 0.323 1.147 2.147 3.147 4.147 5.147 6.147 7.147 8.147 9.147
Annual Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 47.1% 15.7% 22.0% 18.7% 16.7% 13.4% 12.2% (38.2%) (18.6%) 7.5%
Annual EBITDA: 508.8 661.6 794.0 947.2 1,107.7 1,258.2 1,410.8 633.1 694.4 745.9
Annual EBITDA Growth Rate: 19.3% 30.0% 20.0% 19.3% 16.9% 13.6% 12.1% (55.1%) 9.7% 7.4%
Terminal FCF Growth Rate:
(0.5%) - 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Q1 Results - Reported Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement Figures from Q1: FY14 - Q1
Revenue: $ 246.9
Annual Revenue Growth Rate: N/A
Operating Income (EBIT): (66.7)
Annual Operating Margin: N/A
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
Maximum $ 31,143 $ 29,697 $ 1,779 $ 2,171 $ 2,569 $ 697 $ 1,074 $ 1,306 $ 330 $ 472 $ 1,123 111.0% 136.6% 39.9% 50.1% 50.8%
75th Percentile 12,396 11,702 1,138 1,452 1,739 372 655 823 163 380 443 30.6% 31.1% 32.2% 45.4% 48.9%
Median $ 7,774 $ 8,769 $ 1,086 $ 1,206 $ 1,387 $ 233 $ 259 $ 295 $ 22 $ 26 $ 119 21.0% 13.7% 21.5% 21.5% 20.2%
25th Percentile 5,863 5,410 856 715 1,058 0 (5) 165 (88) (71) 77 14.4% (62.3%) (1.6%) (1.6%) 16.7%
Minimum 1,699 1,533 572 574 823 (331) (478) 65 (369) (538) 47 6.1% (181.3%) (33.0%) (83.3%) 7.2%
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc $ 8,196 $ 9,089 $ 923 $ 982 $ 1,237 $ 423 $ 509 $ 662 $ 80 $ 164 $ 403 26.0% 30.0% 45.8% 51.8% 53.5%
Maximum $ 31,143 $ 29,697 16.7 x 24.5 x 11.6 x 42.6 x 27.7 x 85.8 x 94.4 x 66.0 x 27.7 x
75th Percentile 12,396 11,702 14.7 x 13.5 x 10.6 x 33.2 x 23.3 x 22.2 x 85.6 x 43.8 x 20.1 x
Median $ 7,774 $ 8,769 8.4 x 5.7 x 4.7 x 25.9 x 21.8 x 15.1 x 76.9 x 21.5 x 16.8 x
25th Percentile 5,863 5,410 4.8 x 4.4 x 3.8 x 15.9 x 13.7 x 9.4 x 50.2 x 18.1 x 15.4 x
Minimum 1,699 1,533 2.2 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 10.3 x 7.6 x 6.9 x 23.5 x 14.7 x 13.3 x
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc $ 8,196 $ 9,089 9.8 x 9.3 x 7.3 x 21.5 x 17.9 x 13.7 x NM 50.0 x 20.4 x
Precedent Transactions - North American Pharmaceutical Sellers with Between $200 Million and $2 Billion In LTM Revenue,
Announced Between January 1st, 2009 and May 9th, 2014
($ in Millions Except Per Share and Per Unit Data)
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc - Comparable M&A Transactions Operating Metrics Valuation Multiples
Transaction Transaction EV / EV /
Equity Enterprise LTM LTM LTM LTM
Acquirer Name Target Name Date Value Value Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA
Mallinckrodt plc Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 04/07/2014 $ 5,291 $ 4,802 $ 891 $ 517 5.4 x 9.3 x
Forest Laboratories Inc. Aptalis Holdings Inc. 01/08/2014 2,900 2,900 688 315 4.2 x 9.2 x
Shire Pharmaceutical Holdings Ireland Limited ViroPharma Inc. 11/11/2013 4,200 4,097 430 59 9.5 x 69.0 x
Salix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Santarus, Inc. 11/07/2013 2,600 1,980 338 82 5.9 x 24.3 x
Endo Health Solutions Inc. Paladin Labs Inc. 11/05/2013 1,600 1,348 264 93 5.1 x 14.5 x
Akorn, Inc. Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc. 08/27/2013 640 536 231 48 2.3 x 11.3 x
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. Medicis Pharmaceutical Corporation 09/03/2012 2,600 2,329 764 191 3.1 x 12.2 x
TPG Capital, L.P. Par Pharmaceutical Companies Inc. 07/16/2012 1,900 1,976 1,035 237 1.9 x 8.3 x
Novartis AG Fougera Pharmaceuticals Inc. 05/02/2012 1,525 1,525 429 173 3.6 x 8.8 x
Takeda Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. URL Pharma, Inc. 04/11/2012 800 800 600 76 1.3 x 10.5 x
Genomma Lab Internacional SAB de CV Prestige Brands Holdings, Inc. 02/21/2012 834 1,263 403 119 3.1 x 10.6 x
Nestlé Health Science S.A. Prometheus Laboratories Inc. 05/24/2011 745 659 519 139 1.3 x 4.7 x
Pfizer Inc. King Pharmaceuticals LLC 10/12/2010 3,600 3,225 1,565 349 2.1 x 9.2 x
Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. Qualitest Pharmaceuticals 09/28/2010 1,200 1,176 309 58 3.8 x 20.2 x
Celgene Corporation Abraxis BioScience, Inc. 06/30/2010 2,923 2,789 397 (23) 7.0 x NM
Astellas US Holding, Inc. OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. 05/16/2010 4,000 3,414 441 176 7.7 x 19.4 x
Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma America Holdings, Inc. Sepracor, Inc. 09/03/2009 2,600 2,347 1,334 306 1.8 x 7.7 x
GlaxoSmithKline plc Stiefel Laboratories, Inc. 04/20/2009 3,050 3,450 900 288 3.8 x 12.0 x
Valuation Statistics - Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc - Range of Valuation Multiples / Premiums Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc - Implied Per Share Value Range
Precedent Transactions:
LTM EV / Revenue: 9.5 x 5.3 x 3.7 x 2.1 x 1.3 x $ 923 $ 4.60
LTM EV / EBITDA: 69.0 x 14.5 x 10.6 x 9.2 x 4.7 x 423 18.07
Convertible Bonds: $ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution $ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
$ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution $ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution
$ 345.0 $ 1,000 $ 46.38 4.107 $ 250.0 $ 1,000 $ 47.69 2.895
$ 690.0 $ 1,000 $ 65.81 3.822 0.000
75.07 55.03
Valuation Metrics Valuation Metrics
$ 7,774.0 $ 5,861.1
$ 9,324.2 $ 4,781.4
1.18 1.44
$ 1,648.6 $ 1,255.0
680.3 629.0
360.9 400.0
$ 1,994.7 $ 1,387.0
956.7 690.0
444.0 441.0
$ 2,114.1 $ 1,496.0
1,025.4 747.0
477.5 480.0
8.4 x 4.1 x
33.2 x 10.3 x
NM 23.5 x
5.7 x 3.8 x
13.7 x 7.6 x
21.5 x 14.7 x
4.7 x 3.4 x
9.7 x 6.9 x
17.5 x 13.3 x
CBST BMRN
Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
Calendarization Calendarization
Old Partial New Partial FY LTM Old Partial New Partial FY LTM
$ 229.9 $ 261.2 $ 1,054.4 $ 1,085.7 $ 127.9 $ 151.6 $ 548.5 $ 572.1
55.7 73.5 260.3 278.2 20.5 22.8 95.7 98.1
174.3 187.7 794.1 807.6 107.4 128.7 452.7 474.1
164.5 159.4 767.7 762.6 140.3 155.2 608.8 623.6
9.8 28.3 26.4 44.9 (32.9) (26.5) (156.0) (149.5)
(6.2) (14.1) (70.1) (77.9) (11.6) (8.2) (20.5) (17.1)
3.6 14.2 (43.6) (33.0) (44.5) (34.6) (176.5) (166.6)
(2.5) (10.0) (25.1) (32.6) (4.7) 3.5 (0.2) 8.1
- - - - - - - -
6.1 24.2 (18.6) (0.4) (39.8) (38.1) (176.4) (174.7)
7.2 11.9 34.1 38.8 1.0 7.5 9.1 15.6
- - - - - - - -
8.5 20.4 43.2 55.1 8.7 9.6 36.5 37.4
- 2.4 92.2 94.7 - - 0.9 0.9
27.0% 27.0%
$ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution $ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution
$ 800.0 $ 1,000 $ 82.43 0.000 $ 750.0 $ 1,000 $ 94.15 0.000
$ 228.8 $ 1,000 $ 29.18 7.842 $ 62.0 $ 1,000 $ 20.36 3.047
86.94 155.49
Valuation Metrics Valuation Metrics
$ 5,865.8 $ 9,102.5
$ 6,038.1 $ 8,768.6
0.65 0.92
$ 1,206.3 $ 655.0
259.3 (80.0)
26.0 (142.0)
$ 1,483.0 $ 905.0
294.8 65.0
48.0 47.0
$ 1,834.0 $ 1,225.0
714.6 380.0
296.0 277.0
5.6 x 15.3 x
25.9 x NM
NM NM
5.0 x 13.4 x
23.3 x NM
NM NM
4.1 x 9.7 x
20.5 x NM
NM NM
MDCO JAZZ
The Medicines Company Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc
Calendarization Calendarization
Old Partial New Partial FY LTM Old Partial New Partial FY LTM
$ 155.8 $ 177.2 $ 687.9 $ 709.3 $ 196.2 $ 246.9 $ 872.4 $ 923.1
56.7 66.9 262.8 272.9 27.2 30.9 102.1 105.9
99.0 110.4 425.1 436.4 169.0 216.0 770.3 817.3
121.7 95.6 411.9 385.8 100.8 282.7 430.0 611.8
(22.6) 14.8 13.2 50.6 68.2 (66.7) 340.3 205.5
0.3 2.3 3.4 5.5 (7.1) (10.0) (32.4) (35.2)
(22.4) 17.1 16.6 56.1 61.1 (76.6) 308.0 170.3
(10.8) 22.1 1.4 34.2 17.6 17.0 91.6 91.0
0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 - 1.0 - 1.0
(11.6) (5.0) 15.5 22.1 43.4 (92.7) 216.3 80.2
2.9 2.9 11.4 11.4 19.6 31.2 79.0 90.7
- - - - 4.0 127.0 - 123.0
5.7 7.9 32.2 34.4 0.6 1.3 3.0 3.8
- - - - - - - -
36.0% 18.0%
$ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution $ Amount Par Value Conv. Price Dilution
$ 275.0 $ 1,000 $ 27.93 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
66.67 63.31
Valuation Metrics Valuation Metrics
$ 1,699.3 $ 8,196.0
$ 1,532.7 $ 9,089.5
0.79 1.05
$ 775.1 $ 981.8
70.2 508.8
(0.4) 163.8
$ 822.5 $ 1,236.7
166.1 661.6
105.6 402.7
$ 833.8 $ 1,517.4
226.0 794.0
139.0 512.5
2.2 x 9.8 x
15.9 x 21.5 x
76.9 x NM
2.0 x 9.3 x
21.8 x 17.9 x
NM 50.0 x
1.9 x 7.3 x
9.2 x 13.7 x
16.1 x 20.4 x
Cell Inputs and Lookup Cells for Use in Public Comps:
Company Name 2
Share Price 44
Equity Value 69
Enterprise Value 70
LTM Revenue 5
Forward Year 1 Revenue 81
Forward Year 2 Revenue 85
LTM EBITDA 21
Forward Year 1 EBITDA 82
Forward Year 2 EBITDA 86
LTM Net Income 14
Forward Year 1 Net Income 83
Forward Year 2 Net Income 87
LTM Revenue Multiple 93
Forward Year 1 Revenue Multiple 97
Forward Year 2 Revenue Multiple 101
LTM EBITDA Multiple 94
Forward Year 1 EBITDA Multiple 98
Forward Year 2 EBITDA Multiple 102
LTM P/E Multiple 95
Forward Year 1 P/E Multiple 99
Forward Year 2 P/E Multiple 103
Levered Beta 71
Debt 28
Preferred Stock 29
Tax Rate 19