Impacts of Climate Change

in the Philippines:
Angel THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES AND
PREVIEW TO LA NIÑA SUMMIT
Esteban Celeste Godilano, Ph.D.
STAG-DA, Board Member CCCP
[email protected]

Briefing to the DILG Secretary 16 July 2010, Office of the Secretary, Department of Interior
and Local Government. Diliman Quezon City, Philippines

CLIMATE CHANGE CONGRESS OF THE PHILIPPINES

Unit 203 Eagle Court Condominium, 26 Matalino Street, Barangay Central, Quezon City,
Philippines 1100
 Recent Findings
THE EVIDENCE IS
UNEQUIVOCAL
 A recent study by MIT (USA) and the US-based Sustainability Institute
IPCC 2007 AR4 report predicts that by calculated that the Copenhagen’s proposals will likely leave the world
the end of the 21st century climate 3.9 degree warmer by 2100.
change will result in:

• A probable temperature rise between 1.8

°C and 4 °C, with a possible. temperature
rise between 1.1 °C and 6.4 °C.
• A sea level rise most likely to be 28-43
cm.
• Arctic summer sea ice disappearing in
second half of century.  IPCC recent assessment suggests that a business-as-usual approach could
• An increase in heat waves being very push temperature by more than 6 degrees by 2100. Impact of which are the
likely. following:
• A likely increase in tropical storm  burning of the Amazon forest,

intensity.
 melting of the polar ice cap, and
 sea level rise of 7 meters.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

 Since 1979, more
than 34% of the
IMPLICATION
Polar Ice Cap
TO FOOD has melted away.
SECURITY:
Major rice
production
areas in
Vietnam,
Thailand,
Cambodia,
Myanmar ,
Bangladesh,
and India are Arctic sea ice extent as
threatened by of September 16, 2007
salt water
intrusion,
submergence,
and storm
surges. Food
shortages and
political
upheavals are
likely to occur.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Rice Supply Shortage
Approximately 84% the about 2.32 M ha of rice lands will
be affected by climate change.

> 1 oC = 1.0 M tons rice import

WE SHOULD NOT LIVE BY RICE ALONE

DA-BAS DATA 10.51 M Tons

 Average white corn production for seven years(2000-
2007) is approximately 1.70M tons.
 Root crops which is considered a “poor man’s diet”
(cassava, sweet potato, yam, and taro combined)
contributed 2.36M tons in production (2008).
 Banana production in 2008 is 8.69M tons of which
2.20M tons was exported.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Countries by CO2 (MT) emissions via the burning of fossil fuels (blue
the highest)

USA
CHINA
0.24% of total
global GHG
emission

TOP TEN COUNTRIES

1 China
2
United States
3 Russia
4 India
5 Japan
China and USA emit 42% of the world total. 6 Germany
7 United
Of 210 countries, the Philippines ranked 47th. The top 10 countries in the world emit
Kingdom
67.2% of the world total.
8 Canada
9
South Korea
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
 DATA IN CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS USING GIS
No. Climatic Impact Sources
Events
Decrease by 20 percent, but IPCC 2007,
1 Rainfall increase in intensity. Increase risk Godilano,
of soil erosion and occurrence of E.C. 2005
landslide.
Decrease rainy days but intensity Rosenzweig
2 Rainy Days will be higher than normal, growing and Parry,
periods may shorten by 1994.
IP CC 2007
approximately 30 days
Increase intensity and occurrence
3 Typhoons and may trigger landslides and IPCC 2007
flooding of coastal areas.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

 DATA IN CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS USING GIS
No. Climatic Impact Sources
Events
Increase by 3 percent, more
4 Maximum frequent and persistent El Niño IPCC 2007,
NOAA, 2007.
temperatur episodes, and increased
e evaporation. Crop duration
shortened between one and four
weeks. Drought will be longer and
more intense, heat waves
occurrence.
Increase flooding depth, frequency, IPCC 2007,
5 Flooding intensity, and severe landslides Brakenridge,
G.R. 2004.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

 DATA IN CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS USING GIS
No. Climatic Impact Sources
Events
6 Ground Decrease water availability, poor
quality, and salt intrusion IPCC 2007
Water
Potential
(GWP)
Upward trend, can alter geographic Elliott, 1995;
7 Humidity distribution of pest and diseases Rind, 1998
Increase in total cloud cover,
8 Cloudiness decrease photosynthesis. Clouds NOAA, 2007.
regulate the amount of sunlight NASA Water
received by the surface and so Vapor Project
(NVAP), 1992
influence evaporation from the
surface, which in turn influences
cloud formation. E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
 CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL
Rainfall: Decrease by 20 percent, but
WARMING NO2
CO2
increase in intensity.
NH4
Rainy Days: Decrease rainy days but
CFC
intensity will be higher than normal.
Anthropogenic Typhoon: Increase intensity and
Sources occurrence.
Temperature: Increase by 3 % more
IMPACTS frequent and persistent El Niño and La
1. FLOODING Niña episodes, and increased evaporation.
2. DROUGHT Flooding: Increase flooding depth,
3. LANDSLIDE: frequency, intensity, and severe landslides
4. SEA LEVEL
RISE Ground Water Potential: Decrease water
5. COINCIDENCE availability, poor quality, and salt intrusion
DAMAGE Humidity: Upward trend, can alter
geographic distribution of pest and
diseases
Cloudiness: Increase in total cloud cover,
decrease photosynthesis.
Biophysical and Edaphic: erosion, soils,
THEMATIC
MAPS forest fires, land degradation, geology.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

PREDICTED 13M ha
DROUGHT PREDICTED
(43%) of FLOODING
the country
17M ha or
total area
58%
of the total
country area

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

PREDICTED
LANDSLIDE
Landslide:
1.87 M ha,
and 5.28 M
ha. severe
soil erosion

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

 Approximately
COINCIDENCE MAP 20M ha (67%) of
GCC Affected the country total
Areas area will be
severely affected.
The combination
of the three
events, i.e.
drought + CLIMATE CHANGE
flooding + IMPACTS IN THE
landslide PHILIPPINES
to occur in one
geographic
location is
approximately
264,000 ha.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D. E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

 PREDICTED LANDSLIDE
AREAS IN BENGUET
PROVINCE

Maps and database

for the whole country
was generated in
December 2003 and
has been presented to
DA, DENR, NDCC in
2004, 2005 and
NDCC in 2006.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Landslide prone areas in the Province of Benguet
Municipality/ Very High Not Percent
Code City Risk High Risk Affected Total Affected
1 Atok 6,097 4,744 3,515 14,356 75.51
2 Baguio City 1,328 1,177 3,586 6,090 41.12
3 Bakun 9,172 8,993 7,998 26,163 69.43
4 Bokod 7,768 9,116 24,228 41,112 41.07
5 Buguias 1,565 4,155 11,697 17,418 32.84
6 Itogon 16,257 6,895 18,648 41,800 55.39
7 Kabayan 4,474 1,317 11,221 17,012 34.04
8 Kapangan 7,624 2,666 3,100 13,390 76.85
9 Kibungan 7,606 4,663 5,499 17,768 69.05
10 La Trinidad 2,273 2,332 2,886 7,491 61.48
11 Mankayan 1,796 7,413 4,768 13,977 50.61
12 Sablan 5,338 1,736 1,948 9,022 78.41
13 Tuba 19,057 9,334 3,813 32,204 88.16
14 Tublay 1,859 1,857 2,606 6,321 58.78
TOTAL 92,214 66,398 105,513 264,125 60.05

Percent of TOTAL 34.91 25.14 39.95 100.00 60.05

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

TINAMBAC
Camarines Sur
December 2004

LAND
SLIDES
100 %
RELIABLE

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

 NOBODY LISTENED

After Ondoy and Pepeng we became

number ONE in the World in terms of
awareness to climate change.
Infanta, Quezon Province
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D. November 2004
 PREDICTING
LA NIÑA
IMPACTS AND
PATHWAYS
La Niña Impacts Based on Empirical Evidence
No Description
A warming trend in Earth's atmosphere and surface temperatures would produce an accelerated recycling of
1 water between land, sea and air. (IPCC 2007).
Warmer temperatures increase the evaporation of water from the ocean and land and allow air to hold more
2 moisture. A warming climate is the most plausible cause of this observed trend in tropical rainfall. (Gu, Guojun
2007) .
Based on previous studies the peak response of tropical-cyclone activity occurs during the northeast monsoon
3 season (October, November and December, and January February and March). Mason and Goddard, 2001,
and Jose, et al. 2007.
Peak month of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity is from July to October, The most number of T.C. crossing the
4 Philippines are during October and November..(Hilario, F. 2009)
From the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite-deduced results closely matched previous
5 rainfall-gauge-based threshold estimates during the Guinsaugon disaster in Southern Leyte, particularly when
the heaviest rain fell in a short duration of less than twelve hours (NASA, USA. 2007).
Precipitation is projected to decrease by as much as 42% in the dry season and increase by 24% in the wet
6 season, increasing the likelihood of prolonged droughts during summer and floods in the rainy season (Castillo
and Villarin, 2002).
The result of the GIS spatial analysis showed that approximately 13 m ha of the country will be under drought
7 environment. In the case of flooding, total affected area is approximately 17 m ha. Landslide is likely to occur
in 1.87 mm ha. while severe soil erosion in 5.28 mm ha. (Godilano, E.C. 2009, 2010).
Station locations with a statistically significant occurrence of above- and below-median seasonal rainfall during
8 El Niño events (filled and open circles). Different sized circles represent varying levels of statistical significance.
(Lyon, B., H. Cristi, E. R. et al., ,2006).

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

ENSO rainfall signal
Jul-Aug-Sept Oct-Nov-Dec
in the Philippines
Station locations with
a statistically
significant occurrence
of above- and below-
median seasonal
rainfall during El Niño
events (filled and open
circles). Different sized
circles represent
varying levels of
significance. Circles
with crosses are not
statistically significant.
Source: Lyon, B., H. Cristi, E. R.
Verceles, F. D. Hilario, and R.
Abastillas (2006), Seasonal
reversal of the ENSO rainfall
signal in the Philippines.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24710,
doi:10.1029/2006GL028182. E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
 Monthly frequency of tropical cyclone entering and crossing
the Philippines (1948-2005) Source: Hilario, F. Science-Based Philippines Climate
Assessment . PAGASA-DOST: July 22, 2009

July to October: Peak

month of tropical cyclone
October and November: Most number of
tropical cyclone crossing the Philippines
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
 PREDICTED IMPACTS OF LA NIÑA EVENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES
Landslide, DISASTER = fn: (Rf + Lc + St + Sg + Es) * WF
Severe Soil where: Rf = rainfall; Lc= land cover; St = soil
Erosion, and texture; Sg = slope gradient; and Es = erosion
Flooding severity
WF = weight factor.

Landslide
Flooding JAS
Erosion OND
Very High Rainfall
JFM
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
Landslide:
1.87 M ha,
and 5.28 M
ha. severe
soil erosion

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Probabilistic
ProbabilisticENSO
ENSOforecast
forecastfor
forNIÑO3.4
NINO3.4Region
Region Global Advisories
Probabilistic ENSO
forecast (develop in
June 2010: PAGASA)
SEASON LA
> 60 % Probability landslide occurrence
NIÑA
> 60 % Probability landslide occurrence JJA 2010 58%

JAS 2010 61%

ASO 2010 62%

SON 2010 62%

Average
historical OND 2010 62%
probabilit
y for
neutral
NDJ 2011 62%

DJF 2011 62%

Average
historical
JFM 2011 61%
probability for El
Niño and La Niña
FMA 2011 58%
SOURCE: PAGASA
29 June 2010
SOURCE: PAGASA 29 June 2010
LANDSLIDE
Province Month Province Month Province Month
PRONE Ilocos JAS Bohol OND Biliran
OND +
JFM
PROVINCES OND +
Iloilo JAS Cebu OND Catanduanes
DURING LA JFM
OND +
NIÑA EVENTS Zambales JAS Davao OND Agusan
JFM
JAS + OND +
Total: 69 Provinces Abra & Apayao
OND
Samar & Leyte OND Albay
JFM
and three Cities JAS +
Aklan & Capiz Laguna OND Antipolo City JFM
OND
Tropical Cyclone JAS + Marinduque &
Bataan & Pampanga OND Biliran JFM
Forecast OND Romblon
July-October 2010 JAS + Compostela
Ifugao & Ilocos Naga City OND JFM
OND Valley
Month Forecast JAS +
Lanao Del Norte Negros OND Davao JFM
OND
July 2 or 3 JAS + Quezon & Samar and
Mindoro and Misamis OND JFM
OND Rizal Leyte
Nueva Ecija and JAS + Sorsogon &
August 2 0r 3 OND Quezon JFM
Viscaya OND Masbate
JAS + Batangas &
Palawan OND Sorsogon JFM
September 3 or 4 OND Bulacan
JAS + Camarines Sur
Zamboanga del Sur OND Surigao JFM
OND & Norte
October 3 or 4 JAS: July- August-Sept
Source: PAGASA OND: Oct-Nov-December
JFM: Jan-Feb-March
 DA-Climate
Change Office
(DA-CCO)

The DA budget should focus

on climate change adaptation
with mitigation potential.
Additional budget is required
for R&D and vulnerability
assessment and risk mapping.
 ECONOMIC IMPACTS:
Costs of Adaptation and
Mitigation
“The Philippines and other developing countries
can lose 4 to 5 % of their GDP if they fail to
address the worsening problems of climate
change” (approximately $ 25-30 billion).
Damages from typhoon Ondoy and Pepeng reach
nearly $4.42 B (208 billion PhP) or 2.7 percent of
the country GDP (WB 2009 3 Dec 09).
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
RECOMMENDATION
A concerted and
integrated effort using
the watershed as the
planning domain is
necessary. Landslide
and flooding is not an
isolated event constrained
by administrative
boundaries or local
jurisdictions.

With climate change uncertainty is becoming the norm rather

than the exception, PUBLIC access to maps and information is
one of the critical factor towards saving or losing lives and
properties. E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
 WE ALL LIVE IN A WATERSHED

Marikina
STATISTICS River
Laguna Lake Watershed: 298,798 ha Watershed
Mirikina River Watershed: 53,854 ha 95% of the watershed area is
Marikina City: 2,286 ha outside Marikina City
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
SATELLITE Agriculture
IMAGE: Portion
of Marikina River
Watershed
(Ssource: Google Earth
18 Nov 2009)

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

 Watershed Management:
A Shared Responsibility
Core Zone
(No Development,
IPs manage) ECG:
Forest Plantation
Protection Forest • Sustainable harvesting
• Recreation/tourism • Agroforestry
• Limited resource
extraction by IPs Responsible
Shared Green Upland Ecosystems
Water Resources Water Mining
• Organic agriculture
• Fishery Rights • Farming systems
• Water harvesting • Agroforestry
• Domestic supply • Water impounding
• Industrial use Catch Basin • Controlled settlement
• Water impounding
• Mini hydro Lowland Ecosystems
• Ecotourism • Organic agriculture
• Coral reef
• Mangrove • Farming systems
enhancement
plantation • Irrigation systems
• Conservation
• Sea weeds/ • Fish farming
• Ecotourism
grass farming • Water harvesting
• Deep sea fishing
• Fish sanctuary • Urban Agriculture
• Captured fishery •Settlement
ECG:CCCP
 UNDERSTANDING WATERSHED DEGRADATION
Policy and DEFORESTATION
Political Will Slash and Burn
Farming

Encroachment of
Charcoal Making/
Protected Areas
Fuel Wood

Stewardship Mineral
Arrangement Extraction

Lowland-Upland Water
Migration Diversion

Conflicting POVERTY, HUMAN Wild Life

Laws RIGHTS and Poaching
SOCIAL JUSTICE
GOOD SUSTAINABLE
GOVERNANCE FINANCING

SUSTAINABLE FINANCING SHOULD NOT BE DEBT CREATING

The impacts of climate change may persist for
more than 1000 years, even after human-induced
emissions of CO2 stop completely.

New studies find that

warmer temperatures and
changes in precipitation
caused by CO2 emissions
from human activity are
largely irreversible.

SOURCE: Matthews and Caldeira (2008). Stabilizing climate requires near zero emissions.
Geophysical Research Letters 35:L04705.
 RECOMMENDATION

For many disaster

prone communities,
instituting a
community-based
disaster
management
system is the only
defense.

A bottom-up approach is necessary given the ill-capacity of LGUs

to respond to the needs of the community during times of disaster.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

LIMITATIONS
Climate Policy that takes
There is no “silver into account the need to
bullet” on climate support global and
adaptation, mitigation, national food security by
and anticipation promoting synergy
strategies and program between food and water
unless….. security ,research,
poverty, and social justice.

THE STAKE ARE HIGH

A business as usual approach will be an
indictment of our generation that our children will
never forgive.
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
Since climate change affects the distribution and
CLIMATE CHANGE
availability of critical natural resources, it can
act as a “threat multiplier” by causing mass
migrations and exacerbating conditions
that Is not the survival of the fittest and the rich
can lead to social unrest
and armed conflict.
 It is not about food and water security
US Center for Naval
Analysis: 2007; and
US CIA: 2009

CLIMATE CHANGE IS ABOUT

NATIONAL SECURITY
"In my view, climate change is the most severe problem
that we are facing today -- more serious even than the
threat of terrorism." (David A. King, Chief Scientific Advisor to the British Government)
WHO WILL THANK
LEAD US?
YOU
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.