Portland Tree Canopy Monitoring 2020
Portland Tree Canopy Monitoring 2020
Portland Tree Canopy Monitoring 2020
Project Staff
Angie DiSalvo, Science, Outreach, and Planting Manager
Jeff Ramsey, Science and Policy Specialist
Nick Rossmiller, Botanic Specialist II - Forestry
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Monitoring Protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
20-year findings
• Tree canopy losses found across all zoning classes and citywide during
this study period are within the margin of error, and not statistically
significant
• Future updates of this study will show whether losses found during
this period continue, representing a reversal in the long-term trend
of tree canopy expansion in Portland. The next measurement will be
taken in 2025.
Tree canopy cover has been measured in a variety of ways within the city
of Portland. Past studies have varied in methodology and time frame, and
citywide canopy estimates from 1972 to 2014 range from 25% – 31%
(Metro 2008 and 2016, Nowak & Greenfield 2012, Poracsky & Lackner
2004, PP&R 2007). These studies have provided important estimates
of tree canopy cover, but differences in methodology preclude direct
comparison of results for the purpose of detecting change.
CHOOSING A METHODOLOGY
DEFINING STRATA
Recognizing that the city has different land use areas with varying
characteristics and goals, strata were determined according to zoning
classifications. Zoning classes are good proxies for the city’s different land
use types and best represent development intensity. Zoning classes also
have some connection to the Urban Land Environments outlined in the
2004 Portland Urban Forest Management Plan. Four strata were established
corresponding to zoning code: commercial, industrial, open space, and
residential (Table 1). All areas within the city’s boundary were assigned to
one of the zoning classes.
Note that some zoning boundaries and designations were updated in 2018 (Bureau of Planning and
Sustainability 2018). Table 1 reflects zoning classes prior to this update. For the purposes of the 2015 –
2020 reporting period, the prior zoning designations were kept in place. Future updates of this report
will reflect the new zoning map.
PP&R contracted with Davey Resource Group, an experienced urban forestry consultant agency, to
assist in establishing a protocol in 2012. The complete monitoring protocol is described in Appendix A.
Point interpretation was conducted by first establishing randomly located points across each zoning
class. To keep standard error low, a minimum of 1,000 points were used for each zoning class for a total
of 4,521 points. High resolution imagery was available back to 2000, thus years 2000, 2005, and 2010
became the first study years, and Davey Resource Group conducted point interpretation for these years.
Subsequent point interpretation was conducted by Urban Forestry staff for years 2015 and 2020.
For each study year, points were laid in the same geographic location on aerial images and a trained
photo interpreter examined the points to determine whether the points coincided with tree canopy or
not. To ensure that the photo interpretation process was completed with the highest degree of accuracy,
a second photo interpreter performed quality assurance inspections on 10% of the work performed to
verify the interpretations, with a 95% agreement threshold.
A percent tree canopy cover was determined for each zoning class, and the number of acres of tree
canopy was calculated by multiplying the percentage of tree canopy by the total acres within the zoning
class. Citywide tree canopy levels and acreages were calculated as weighted averages of the zoning
classes. Standard error and 95% confidence intervals were calculated, and change over time was tested
for significant difference using a Chi-squared test (McNemar’s test) and significant differences were
found if p < 0.05.
Table 2: Percent tree canopy cover and acres of tree canopy from 2000–2020
Zoning Class Percent Acres Percent Acres Percent Acres Percent Acres Percent Acres
Commercial 9.1 571 11.0 687 12.5 781 13.3 827 13.0 812
Industrial 6.4 1,374 6.8 1,467 7.9 1,690 9.5 2,043 8.7 1,879
Open Space 53.9 9,057 54.6 9,182 55.3 9,306 54.9 9,239 54.2 9,118
Residential 29.8 14,345 30.4 14,629 33.1 15,955 34.0 16,351 32.9 15,827
City Total 27.3 25,348 28.0 25,965 29.9 27,732 30.7 28,460 29.8 27,637
Figure 1: Acres of canopy in zone classes from 2000–2020. Error bars represent 95% confidence
intervals.
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
ACRES
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
‐
Commercial Industrial Open Space Residential
Year 2000 571 1,374 9,057 14,345
Year 2005 681 1,467 9,182 14,629
Year 2010 775 1,690 9,306 15,955
Year 2015 827 2,043 9,239 16,351
Year 2020 812 1,879 9,118 15,827
In commercial zones, tree canopy rose from 571 acres to 827 acres
between 2000-2015, falling to 812 acres in 2020. This represents total
tree canopy cover ranging from 9.1% in 2000 to 13.3% in 2015, falling to
13.0% in 2020. Commercially zoned lands contain approximately 3% of
the city’s total tree canopy.
In industrial zones, tree canopy rose from 1,374 acres to 2,043 acres
between 2000-2015, falling to 1,879 acres in 2020. This represents total
canopy cover ranging from 6.4% in 2000 to 9.5% in 2015, falling to
8.7% in 2020 – the lowest of any zoning class. Industrial zoned lands
contain approximately 7% of the city’s total tree canopy.
In the open space zone, tree canopy rose from 9,057 acres to 9,306 acres
between 2000-2010, falling between 2010-2020, to 9,118 acres. Open
space zones have the highest rate of canopy cover found in any zoning
class, at 54.2% in 2020, down from 55.3% in 2010. Land zoned open
space contains approximately 33% of the city’s tree canopy.
In residential zones, which make up the largest portion of the city’s land
base, tree canopy rose from 14,345 acres to 16,351 acres between 2000-
2015, falling to 15,827 acres in 2020. This represents total tree canopy
cover ranging from 29.8% in 2000 to 34.0% in 2015, falling to 32.9%
in 2020. Residential zones contain the majority (57%) of the city’s tree
canopy.
From 2000 to 2005, increases in tree canopy cover were found citywide
and in all zoning classes (Table 3), however only changes in commercial
zones were statistically significant (McNemar’s test, p < 0.05), where tree
canopy cover rose from 9.1% to 11.0% during the time period.
City Total +0.7 +617 +1.9* +1,767* +0.8 +728 -0.9 -823
* Change significantly different with p < 0.05 (McNemar’s test)
From 2005 to 2010, significant increases in tree canopy cover were found citywide and in all zoning
classes except open space. Citywide tree canopy cover increased by 1.9%, commercial by 1.5%,
industrial by 1.0%, and residential by 2.8%.
From 2010 to 2015, increases in tree canopy were found in all zoning classes except open space, however
the only significant change was seen in industrial zones, which increased by 1.6%, from 7.9% to 9.5%
tree canopy cover.
In the latest reporting period, from 2015-2020, decreases in tree canopy cover were found citywide, and
across all zoning classes. None, however, were statistically significant.
Over the twenty-year period, from 2000 to 2020, tree canopy cover increased significantly citywide and
in all zoning classes with the exception of open space (Table 4). Citywide tree canopy cover increased
by 2.5%, commercial by 3.9%, industrial by 2.3%, and residential by 3.1%. Citywide, these increases
represent an estimated addition of 2,289 acres of tree canopy.
Twenty years is a relatively short period of time, but clear trends are
revealing changes in the urban forest. While Portland’s tree canopy cover
is greater today than 20 years ago, canopy growth has slowed or reversed
in the past 5 years. Interestingly, this time period coincides with the 2015
adoption of improved regulations for tree preservation and removal with
Portland’s tree code, Title 11. Despite these new rules resulting in the
preservation of thousands more trees than would have been preserved
in previous years, the city was still not able to realize the gains in tree
canopy cover seen in the early periods of this study.
Tree canopy cover varies greatly between zoning classes, reflecting land
use and development intensity. Land use also explains the likelihood for
changes in tree canopy cover during each reporting period. For example,
the open space zone has the highest level of tree canopy cover, but
changes over the study period were statistically insignificant. Open space
lands include natural areas and developed parks, where land use patterns
are largely set. In contrast, residential, commercial, and industrial zones
are more likely to undergo development and, with less overall tree
canopy, may have more opportunities for planting new trees, making
them more likely to experience changes in canopy cover over short 5-year
increments.
canopy cover for the residential ULE and 15% for the commercial/industrial/institutional ULE. In
2020, tree canopy cover did not meet these goals, having declined across every zone: in the residential
zone tree canopy cover is 32.9%, the commercial zone is 13.1%, and the industrial zone is 8.7%.
PP&R’s Canopy Report (2007) and City of Portland’s Climate Action Plan (2009 and 2015) set a goal
of expanding urban forest canopy to cover one-third of the city’s area. The 33.3% citywide goal was
established from tree canopy cover data produced using a different method than that used in this report,
and direct comparison of results is not recommended.
This report provides baseline data that can be used to establish and refine canopy targets. The Portland
Urban Forest Management Plan is scheduled to be updated in coming years, providing an excellent
opportunity for revising tree canopy goals, using new information on areas of potential growth to set
realistic targets (PP&R 2018). Well-developed tree canopy targets will provide the opportunity to make
deliberate and clear decisions for planning and goal setting for the future of the urban forest.
In addition to a citywide tree canopy goal, goals for each zoning class are recommended due to the
fundamental differences between zones in land use characteristics, existing tree canopy, and capacity to
accommodate tree canopy in the future. Zone class targets will assist managers in developing effective
strategies for increasing tree canopy, and may also assist the City in reaching its other tree goals, such as
more equitable distribution of trees.
Establishing and applying a monitoring protocol has been an important step in a long-term commitment
to tracking tree canopy trends. The protocol outlined in this study will continue to serve as guide for
PP&R in future years and the next tree canopy measurement will occur using 2025 aerial images.
This monitoring study reports trends in tree canopy cover, but does not provide information on why
changes are occurring. Canopy increases may be attributed to growth of existing trees and planting
of new trees. Tree removal for development, tree loss from pests and diseases, natural mortality, and
weather events may negatively affect tree canopy cover. Examination of the reasons behind tree canopy
Portland Parks & Recreation. 2007. Urban Forest Action Plan. https://
https://www.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2020/urban-forest-action-
plan-02-07.pdf
Thompson, S. K. 2002. Sampling, second edition. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, New York.
• Images that are too difficult to interpret due to large dark shadows from buildings or very large trees
are considered “unreadable” and are excluded from the study.
• Due to the nature of aerial photography, minor displacement occurs due to horizontal and parallax
variation from year to year. To minimize bias, these changes are ignored and each photo is assumed
to be correct. Although this may introduced error in some borderline cases, it is assumed that error
is equally randomly distributed between tree and non-tree points.
DATA ANALYSIS
Zoning class tree canopy cover percentage (p): The number of sample points (N) interpreted as “tree”
divided by the total number of sample points (n) within the zone (p=N/n).
Zoning class tree canopy acres: The percentage of tree canopy cover (p) multiplied by the total acres of
land within that zone.
Citywide tree canopy acreage: The sum of tree canopy acreages in each zone.
Citywide tree canopy cover percentage: The total acres of tree canopy divided by the total acres of land
in the city.
Standard error (SE): √ ((p x (1-p)/n) (Lindren and McElrath 1969)
Confidence interval: A 95% confidence interval is set and is calculated as: SE x 1.96 (Thompson 2002).
Significance testing: For each zone and citywide, McNemar’s test is used to determine whether changes
observed in canopy coverage are statistically significant (Sokal and Rohlf, 2003). McNemar’s test is a
non-parametric method used on nominal data. The test provides a chi-squared value, which is compared
against a p-value for statistical significance. Canopy cover between years and across zones is considered
significantly different if p < 0.05. A weighted total is used to calculate citywide chi-squared using
McNemar’s test. Each number of sample points (N) was multiplied by the portion of the city covered by
each zone to calculate the total.