Balanced Growth Theory With Respect To India
Balanced Growth Theory With Respect To India
Balanced Growth Theory With Respect To India
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Abstract
Indian Economy is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, currently growing at around 7%. However, India’s
growth has been highly uneven and lop-sided. Sectors such as services relying on exports have grown far more whereas
manufacturing and agriculture have languished. As global trade environment becomes tougher, there is increasing
realization that India’s domestic economy needs to grow lot more. In this context, balanced growth theory proposed by
Ragnar Nurkse and many other Economists in 1950s is worth revisiting. Nurkse called for unleashing growth across
different sectors of domestic economy simultaneously. Nurkse identified productivity as key determinant of market size
and considered the poor as participants in the growth process than as mere beneficiaries. Even though balanced growth
model is an ideal to aspire for, there are very few success stories which laid a clear roadmap to achieve it. Further, we need
to reimagine the balanced growth model for today’s context to take into consideration newer challenges and opportunities
compared to 1950s. In addition, the role of the Government needs to be recalibrated to be a catalyst in market economy in
contrast to planned economies. To accomplish this complex task, we need an information framework that has an ecosystem
approach and looks at society holistically. We propose the use of Ontology-based Tantra Social Information Management
Framework to steer India towards the balanced growth ideal. This paper contains the description of Tantra Framework
and our approach to realize balanced growth using Tantra Framework.
Keywords: Balanced Growth, Balanced Scorecard, External Economy, Ontology, Zachman Framework
to reimagine the balanced growth model to suit today’s beneficiaries. We make a case that with right information
context. The balanced growth theory however has been framework and methodology, balanced growth ideal can
challenged by unbalanced growth theory propounded indeed be realized.
by Hirschman (1958). Neo-classical economic theory Rest of the paper is organized as follows. The Section 2,
that advocates the combination of labour, capital and Balanced growth and other Development Theories, does a
technology is the most dominant now. review of theories of development economics. The Section 3,
To arrive at the right model for growth, we need Reimagining Balanced Growth in Indian Context, covers
an approach that draws on economics, sociology and how balanced growth theory should be applied in Indian
computer science due to the following reasons: context. The Section 4 describes Tantra Good Governance
Framework. The Section 5, covers how to realise
• Traditional economic analysis looks at society either
Balanced Growth using Tantra Framework. The Section 6,
with macro or micro perspective. In reality much of the
Conclusions, concludes the paper.
economic life takes place in the continuum between
the two.
• Sociology traditionally looks at smaller groups where 2. Balanced Growth and other
data collection and analysis can be managed and Development Theories
behaviour can be studied. But today social interactions
span all over the globe in a digital and virtual manner, A recent article on development economics in Investopedia
which need newer approaches. (2018) examined different development theories including
• Today’s technologies make it easy to manage large mercantilisms of European powers which thrived by
amounts of data. The computer platforms are exploiting colonies, linear stages growth model that
becoming increasingly social where people provide was used to rebuild the European countries by public
feedback, share knowledge, express opinions, provide investment in industrialization and economic nationalism
suggestions for policy and get influenced by their that disallowed free flow of capital, goods and labour
communities. The social dimension has overtaken the outside national boundaries. After 1950s, the structural
technology dimension. change theory (Economics Online, Structural Change
In this paper we look at applying balanced growth theory Theory) became popular that included 2-sector Model
to Indian Economy with the help of ontology-based Tantra proposed by Lewis (1955) and 3-Sector Model proposed
Framework. Tantra Framework is conceptualized to (Clark, 1940; Fisher, 1939) that included Agriculture,
manage the entire governance and societal information in Industry and Services. As more and more colonies became
a comprehensive and holistic manner. Tantra Framework independent, the dependency theory that emphasized the
captures information on people, addresses and locations, dependence of developing countries (periphery countries)
assets and attributes, events, processes and objectives as over developed countries (core countries) and asymmetric
well as relationships and relators. Tantra Framework relationship between them came into discourse. This led
interoperates with balanced scorecard model to set goals, many countries to go for closed economies which made
theory of change framework to design interventions and matters worse. The neoclassical growth theory suggested
theory of separations to assess the impact of Governance use of technology in combination with labour and capital
on people. to create new waves of growth. Over the last two centuries,
The framework approach is particularly important the source of competitive advantage shifted from labour
to India now, as Indian economy is in the third stage of to capital to technology to knowledge. However, the
evolution, after embracing socialism in early decades imbalance within economies has persisted.
followed by liberalization in later decades. Currently the The advocates of balanced growth stressed that, for
challenges as well as opportunities are at the level of eco- an economy to grow, it needed all sectors to grow to
system and only state is in a unique position to catalyse support each other. In developed countries entrepreneurs
change. Tantra Framework is particularly suited for that. played a key role in developing complementary sectors
A key contribution of this paper is to bring balanced to unleash economic growth. In developing countries,
growth theory which has confounded economic analysts a big push might be needed by the government to help
back into discourse. We found balanced growth theory the economy grow in a balanced way; e.g., ensuring that
to be particularly striking in the sense that it looks at farming remains developed even when experiencing a
poor as participants in the growth process than as mere manufacturing boom.
First to put forward the theory of balanced growth sectoral balance Sectoral balance means economic
(Fisher, 1939 & Economics Discussion..) was endorsed by development of all the sectors
Rodan (1943) and developed further by Nurkse (1953), in an economy. For example,
Scitovsky (1954) and Lewis (1955). Lewis emphasized the expansion of industrial sector will
importance of need for all sectors of economy to grow raise the demand for raw material
simultaneously and that domestic sector must grow in which will only be supplied by
balance with the export sector. He maintained that if these expanding of agricultural sector.
sectors are simultaneously developed, the relative prices
among them can be maintained. Kindleberger (1958) in There are caveats to Nurkse’s theory. There could be
his paper maintained that “balanced growth implies that overproduction and glut in the market that may depress
investment takes place simultaneously in all sectors or prices. This happens typically in agriculture sector in
industries at once”. “However, the most widely discussed India where some years there are shortages and other years
and accepted meaning of balanced growth is that there there is glut. Another caveat is easy availability of foreign
should be simultaneous and harmonious development of capital. The developing countries can easily access foreign
different sectors of the economy, so as to make available capital by opening up markets. However certain already
a ready market for the products of different sectors. Thus, well-performing sectors and regions tend to attract foreign
balanced growth is not a static term, but it refers to its capital. Hence, balanced growth theory continues to be
dynamism”. relevant.
Nurkse studied the problem of vicious cycle of poverty. Nurkse recognized the importance of innovation-
He found that low productivity affected both demand and based entrepreneurship, when he referred to Schumpeter’s
supply cycles. He recognized the need to expand markets theory of economic development, where rapid growth was
to induce investment. “One way the Governments can get achieved through the action of individual entrepreneurs
around this obstacle is to put more money in the hands of creating recurrent waves of industrial progress. He assumed
people, but that is inflationary and not sustainable. Other that developing countries may not have the wherewithal
way is to reduce prices to expand markets. This needs to be for innovation and entrepreneurship, which however is no
accompanied with increasing productivity which in turn longer true. Nurkse emphasized that “Innovation in one
can increase real incomes of people. So, from a vicious industry can create a wave that impacts many others. The
cycle we can move to a virtuous cycle”. He characterized the rate at which one industry grows is inevitably conditioned
virtuous cycle thus. “Increase in productivity->Increase in by the rate at which other industries grow. Any investment
flow of goods and services into Economy->Consumption in isolation may seem to have dismal returns”. As far as
Rises->Size of Market increases->Inducement to invest for Nurkse is concerned, whether balanced growth happens
firms-> Economic Growth and development”. due to entrepreneurs or with public investment, the nature
The doctrine of balanced growth requires the balance of solution remains the same.
of three types (Table 1). In current age the Government’s role may be more as a
catalyst to promote simultaneous investments in multiple
Table 1. Type of balances in balanced growth theory sectors. Our belief is that Government has an ecosystem
level role to work with private businesses to achieve the
supply-side balance In underdeveloped countries, low balanced growth objective.
Income—>low Savings—>low When an industry produces a product of higher quality
Investment—>low capital forma- at lower cost, it in turn can trigger growth in another
tion—>low productivity—>low industry by making it possible for it to operate with greater
income. To give impetus to entre- efficiency. For example, efficient transportation industry
preneurs to invest, set up several can boost tourism. This notion is referred to as “external
industries simultaneously. economy”. An external economy may be created in a
demand-side bal- In the underdeveloped countries, different country and can help balance the trade.
ance Low Income → Low Purchasing Sheahan (1958) did a critique on balanced growth
Power → Low Investment → Low theory and argued that resources have to be directed to
Productivity-> Low Income. The those sectors that can use them more efficiently and the
concept of balanced growth from balancing should be about coordinating investments
the demand side is that several internationally rather than domestically.
industries should be developed In contrast, unbalanced growth theory, associated with
simultaneously the German political economist Albert Hirschman (1958),
suggests that “overall growth is faster when it is unbalanced. Secondly there has been significant distress in
The role of government should be to help support those agriculture sector not only in drought years but even
industries with the strongest linkages to the growth when production of crops was high as farmers suffered
industries or strategically selected industries”. due to depressed prices. The third issue is increasing
Bhatt (1964) contended that balanced and unbalanced protectionism in the world and India’s inability to expand
growth strategies are complementary to each other. He exports or reduce imports. Here again there is need to
looked at unbalanced growth as a motivator to economy develop domestic markets.
to widen its horizon with respect to growth potentialities, India is now considered the fastest growing economy
which naturally must focus on specific sectors. in the world. However, India faces many challenges.
Firstly, India needs to grow at 10% rate for many years
to substantially increase per-capita income. Secondly the
3. Reimagining Balanced Growth trickle-down theory where high growth is supposed to
in Indian Context benefit masses has not operated optimally. Many times,
growth is jobless or has resulted in huge inequalities.
Between 2008 and 2011, India’s GDP grew between 8 to
Thirdly global trade is increasingly competitive, and
10%. Afterwards it dipped to low numbers in 2013 and
India is a late-comer. Considering all these aspects, there
then has remained largely range-bound between 6 and 8%
is belated realization in India to substantially expand the
shown in Figure 1.
domestic economy. In this context, we believe balanced
growth theory is particularly relevant to India of today.
3.8 Market Balance
Sectors such as agriculture face vagaries of weather.
Other sectors also face business cycles. Using an
information framework, it can become easier to
predict and monitor demand and plan the supply and
distribution strategy in a fine-grained manner. Figure
4 illustrates the Market Network. Here supply and
demand may flow through the whole network or parts
of it. If each of these entities is modelled and networked,
Figure 3. Role of different sectors in value chain. we can measure demand across the network, identify
demand hot-spots and supply bottlenecks. In summary
Sectoral balance also can be thought in terms of an information framework can help achieve market
harmonizing Public, Private, Informal and Social sectors. equilibrium and achieve optimal outcomes to market
Custom products/services are another area India has a participants.
natural advantage (Debroy, 2018).
• People/Communities/Businesses (Who). Formal Credit. Table 7 covers metrics that are important to
• Places/Addresses/Locations/Zones (Where). economy. Similarly, events that occur during lifetime of a
• Assets/Attributes (What). person can be reified and given a unique ID. These include
• Events (When). birth, attaining maturity, migration, enrolment, emigration,
• Processes (for enrolment, intervention) (How). immigration and death. The processes can similarly be
• Metrics to measure development (Why). covered. The objectives are covered in the next section.
• Relators (enable relationships). Tantra Framework is implemented using Neo4j graph
• Relationships (between aspects). and database which gives it power of visualization.
• Separations (express lack of or difficulty of establishing Tantra Framework can be a great resource to Social
a relationship). Scientists supporting research methods. It is particularly
suited to grounded theory method. According to Martin
4.1 Tantra Good Governance Framework and Turner (1986) grounded theory is “an inductive,
theory discovery methodology that allows the researcher
In Tantra Framework as in Zachman Framework every aspect
to develop a theoretical account of the general features
goes through the process of reification. Table 3 describes
of a topic while simultaneously grounding the account
how People Domain is reified. Similarly Addresses and
in empirical observations or data”. The grounded theory
Zones can be reified under ‘Where’ aspect and Assets under
suggests that there should be a continuous interplay
‘What’ aspect. Table 4 covers income perspective. Loans
between data collection and analysis. Myers (1997) has
can be similarly tracked to get complete financial profile
comprehensively covered different social science research
of people. Table 5 covers the reification of relationships
methods in the context of information systems.
and relators and Table 6 covers separations with access to
Aspects
Perspectives
Who Where What When How Why Relationships Relators Separations
Contextual
(Named and
Scoped)
Conceptual
(Defined)
Logically
Designed
Physically
Configured
(Schema)
Detailed/ In-
stan-tiated)
Tantra Framework can be positioned as Knowledge balanced development (Prabhu, Murthy & Subramanyam,
Management Framework (Prabhu, Murthy & 2019c). In (Prabhu, Murthy & Subramanyam, 2019d)
Subramanyam, 2018a). Tantra Framework is applied to entropy was proposed as an instrument of validation for
varied application scenarios such as transforming India’s Tantra Framework.
electoral democracy (Prabhu, Murthy & Subramanyam, Tantra Framework as defined above can be converted
2019a) intelligent social banking (Prabhu, Murthy & into a normative framework by interoperating with models
Subramanyam, 2019b) assisting in revenue capture that can help achieve Good Governance (Figure 6).
(Prabhu, Murthy & Subramanyam, 2018b) and realizing
Here Goals can be set using Balanced Scorecard Goals (Balanced Scorecard)
Framework (Kaplan, 2010 & Tarafdar & Singh, 2011)
Interventions (Theory of Change)
and interventions can be modelled and managed
through Theory of Change Framework (Weiss, 1995). Separations (Disconnects)
The Separations can be expressed by drawing on Bartels’ Social Information Space
Theory of Separations (Bartels, 1968).
Figure 6. Tantra good governance framework.
Named Name of the income Name of the Name of the income Name of the income
income
Defined Concept of income Concept of in- Concept of income Concept of income
come
Logically De- Related Attributes Related Attributes Related Attributes Related Attributes
signed
Configured Schema Schema Schema Schema
Instantiated Instantiate with unique Instantiate with Instantiate with Instantiate with unique ID
ID unique ID unique ID
5. Balanced Growth using Tantra Balanced Growth, the strategy we use to realize it and how
we validate the Balanced Growth hypotheses.
Framework
Balanced Growth theory undoubtedly has great promise. 5.1 Model
The hypothesis we need to validate is “Balanced growth Table 7 deals with how the social information modelled
depends on investment balance, productivity balance, in order to support the balanced growth case. Tantra
innovation balance, sectoral balance, market balance, Framework captures social information using 9
profit balance, opportunity balance and wage balance”. dimensions. Table 8 details the metrics and measures that
Tantra Framework can help validate the hypothesis and need to be modelled under objectives aspect.
design interventions. This section describes how we model
5.2.3 Track Progress using Indices Aligned to Using process perspective, we look at whether
Balanced Scorecard Perspectives government policies are fair and equitable in intent
and implementation. Then we measure leanness and
Table 9 gives a list of indices that give a comprehensive agility of Governance processes. Finally, using learning
view of the economy aligned to balanced scorecard and growth we look at adoption of new behaviours and
perspectives. The indices defined using financial technologies by people. This is followed by measuring
perspective look at how we get out of resources at disposal, social innovation, diversification of economic activities
efficiency of tax recoveries, productivity and so on. Along and leverage of networks to grow economy. Finally,
citizen/community/perspective we look at metrics that ethical perspective focuses on ethical behaviour and
directly touch the stakeholders. Mobility index measures strong work ethic. Table 9 details the indices and the
economic, social and occupational mobility of people. method of computation.
Financial Perspective
Capitalization Index Ability to monetize national resources C(x) = ∑ Monetization Rate*Resource Quanti-
ty/ ∑Input Rate*Resource Quantity
Competitiveness Index As defined and tracked by global insti-
tutions
Productivity Standard Economic measure
Revenue Capture Index Ability to measure extent of revenue R(x)= Revenue Captures/Revenue Due
collected
D(x) = Defaulters/Total
Out of what is due to Government.
Citizen/Community/Business Perspective
Mobility Index Social, Economic and Occupa- M(x) = # of people experienced Mobility per
tional Mobility thousand people
Citizen Satisfaction Index % of inputs, complaints and CSI = % of Issues Addressed (with weights)/
suggestions addressed Total number of issues (with weights)
Community Satisfaction Index
5.3 Validation
Table 10 explains how the validation of balanced growth
hypotheses is done.
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