Wealth Management Research 27 January 2011

Washington Watch
Katherine Klingensmith, strategist, UBS FS

The state of the State of the Union [email protected], +1 415 963 5387

The UBS US Office of Public Policy provided

• President Obama's State of the Union address included few insight on the political situation in
surprises, but it did highlight the focus on fiscal issues by both Washington, DC for this article.
parties going into the budget negotiations and even the next
election.
• Obama continues to make overtures to the center and right,
especially about being more business friendly and cutting the
deficit, but this will not preclude conflict with Congress over
spending.
• Although the economic proposals discussed in the speech
have few specifics and are a long way from becoming law,
we take a look at what some of them could mean.

The day after the President's State of the Union address, the non- Fig. 1: Unemployment still high
partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the Nearly half of the unemployed have been out of
federal deficit would be USD 1.5 trillion for the 2011 fiscal year, up work for more than six months
12
to 9.8% of the GDP. Republicans and Democrats alike are discussing
how to limit these numbers, but with very different and potentially 10

highly conflictive approaches. The State of the Union address the 8

President gave on Tuesday evening focused on economic and fiscal 6

policy.
4

During his address to the nation, the President focused on what 2

he called a "competitiveness agenda." The proposals include 0

new spending in areas such as infrastructure and education as 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US unem ploym ent rate

Share of labor force without a job for 27 weeks or m ore
well as calls for limiting and cutting spending elsewhere. While
Source: Bloomberg, UBS WMR
the President emphasized the need to create jobs, additional
government spending will be politically difficult to implement (see
Figure 1). Some of his ideas reflect proposals put forth by the deficit
commission (see "A tax compromise emerges," December 7, 2010).
We briefly discuss his primary economic ideas on discretionary
spending, corporate taxes, trade agreements and infrastructure
spending.

Much of what the President outlined in his address foreshadows

his budget proposal and negotiation strategy as the White House
and Congress work to determine a budget for 2012. They
must, in the meantime, determine spending for 2011 as federal
government spending approaches the debt ceiling (see Figure 2
and "Washington Watch: Playing Chicken with the Debt Ceiling"
published January 6, 2011). We expect the fight on Capitol Hill over
spending to be drawn out and intense.

This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Please see important disclaimers and disclosures that begin on
page 4.
Washington Watch

Five-year freeze on discretionary spending Fig. 2: Public debt approaches debt ceiling
The President previously proposed a three-year freeze on discre- US statutory debt limit and debt outstanding, in tril-
tionary spending last year, and he now suggests a five-year freeze. lions of USD
16
This could be important over the long term; however, an ever-in-
creasing percentage of the federal budget is made up of non-dis- 14

cretionary spending, primarily from entitlement programs. The CBO 12

estimates that about 38% of the 2010 budget was discretionary, 10

but only 19% was non-defense discretionary spending. If discre-
tionary spending were held at current nominal levels instead of go- 8

ing up roughly with GDP growth, this could save as much as USD 1 6

trillion over the next ten years. In and of itself, even if a full freeze 4

were respected over five years, the US would still need to implement 1995 2000 2005 2010

US statutory debt limUS

it public debt outstanding
much more drastic spending cuts to stabilize the debt burden. Fully
Source: Bloomberg, UBS WMR
freezing discretionary spending will be politically difficult, although
cutting entitlements would be even more challenging (as evidenced
by its absence in the President's address).

Tax policy
The deficit commission, which issued its report in December, sug-
gested lowering the corporate and individual tax rates and elimi-
nating virtually all loopholes, with the effect of increasing overall
revenue. President Obama suggested simplifying the corporate tax
code, but, importantly, he proposed making this revenue neutral.
While this could help some companies not currently receiving many
benefits, it will inevitably hurt other companies and industries. Giv-
en that some industries stand to lose, we think the likelihood of this
overall proposal being implemented is low. Although about a third
of S&P 500 profits are from overseas, profits are wholly subject to
US tax policy. As long as the overall proposal is tax neutral, it is also
likely to have no effect on overall US corporate profitability.

Free trade agreements

There remain three free trade agreements negotiated by the pre-
vious Administration but never passed by Congress, with South
Korea, Panama and Colombia. In and of themselves, these trade
agreements, if implemented, would not instigate a material change
in US trading patterns or current account deficits. However, the
President's tone last night put more emphasis on free trade than
previously. Coming after a recent high-level visit from Chinese offi-
cials, the generally positive attitude toward free trade is, in our view,
positive for the economy. Traditionally Republicans are more sup-
portive than Democrats of free trade proposals; although the new
Republicans in the House may not be of this stripe, there is still some
chance that these and other free trade agreements will be passed.

Additional spending?
Already the House is busy passing proposals with much more am-
bitious cuts to current federal government spending. While these
proposals at the current juncture do not have a chance of passing
the Democrat-controlled Senate, the mood on the Hill has changed
since the last session of Congress. The President proposed addi-
tional spending on infrastructure, transportation and education.
What these initiatives entail and cost will likely be spelled out in the
President's budget, due the second week of February. Given House
Republicans' reluctance to spend more money, it will be very difficult
to pass any major new legislation involving significant expenditures.

Wealth Management Research 27 January 2011 2

Washington Watch

Overall, the State of the Union contained few specifics, making it

difficult to assign price tags to the various ideas. While President
Obama made broad overtures to the center and right, he will likely
still face considerable opposition implementing his proposals, and
instead may find himself defending spending on current programs.

Wealth Management Research 27 January 2011 3

Washington Watch

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Wealth Management Research 27 January 2011 4