唯品会估值模型
唯品会估值模型
唯品会估值模型
CORE
1 China commerce
Customer Management: (Ads + commission)
Direct sales and others
Sunart
Intime, Freshippo, Kaola, Tmall Global
Alihealth
Wholesale
2 Cainiao Logistics
3 Local services/Ele.me O2O
4 International commerce
Lazada ASEAN ecomm.
Trendyol Turkey
Others Int'l wholesale, Int retail ex Laz
5 Youku Online video
6 Cloud, other
Cloud Computing AliCloud
Other
USER
TRAFFI
C
GMV
10 11 12 14
2021 2022 2023 2024
8393280 9186535 9862333 10383259
12% 9.45% 7.36% 5.28%
4% 4% 4% 4%
870 924.4896 973.038 1014.291
7.27% 6.26% 5.25% 4.24%
9647.448 9936.872 10135.61 10236.97
4.40% 3% 2% 1%
330555.6 367461.4 394493.3 415330.4
8% 11% 7% 5%
Unit:Million 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2
GMV
YOY
Quaterly Active User 100 150 170 260 280 350
YOY 180.00% 133.33%
Quaterly ARPU(dollar)
YOY
Order number 3 5 5 9 9 11
YOY 183.87% 134.04%
Average User order number 3.10 3.13 3.18 3.38 3.14 3.14
YOY 1.38% 0.30%
Average price per order
YOY
Revenue 637 856 989 1,883 1,947 2,171
YOY 205.65% 153.62%
1P segment(%)
YOY 21.04% 21.85% 22.35% 22.94% 23.42% 23.54%
Marketing expense margin 5.81% 4.91% 4.65% 4.20% 4.21% 4.28%
Management expense margin 5.65% 4.09% 4.04% 2.66% 3.13% 3.04%
R&D expense margin 2.35% 1.99% 2.02% 2.12% 2.57% 2.44%
Fullfillment expense margin 16.64% 15.19% 13.95% 12.48% 12.12% 12.21%
Fullfillment expense per order
Other revenue 5 2 3 5 8 9
Operating profit -55 -34 -21 34 34 42
YOY -162% -224%
Operating profit margin -8.63% -3.97% -2.12% 1.81% 1.75% 1.93%
Non-operating revenue
Investment income /(loss)
Impairment losses on other investments
Impairment charges
Interest expense -1 0 0 0
Interest income 1 2 9 10 15 22
exchange net income 1 -4 3 0 -1 6
Disposal of investment gains and losses
应占附属公司之溢利/亏损
除税前溢利 -54 -37 -9 44 48 70
所得税 -4 -12 -15
所得税率 -0.09091 -0.25 -0.21429
应占附属公司之除税后溢利/亏损
净利润(含少数股东权益) -54 -37 -9 40 37 56
少数股东损益
视作向优先股股东分派的股息
净利润(不含少数股东权益) -54 -37 -9 40 37 56
yoy -1.68519 -2.51351
净利润率 -8.48% -4.32% -0.91% 2.12% 1.90% 2.58%
2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4
400 570 740 970 980 1220 1290 1420 1460 1980
135.29% 119.23% 164.29% 177.14% 145.00% 114.04% 74.32% 46.39% 48.98% 62.30%
12 18 20 29 28 35 39 45 45 65
116.67% 101.14% 129.55% 162.73% 141.88% 99.44% 90.59% 55.36% 58.30% 83.85%
2.93 3.11 2.73 2.98 2.89 2.89 2.98 3.16 3.07 3.28
-7.92% -8.25% -13.14% -5.20% -1.27% -6.82% 9.33% 6.13% 6.26% 13.28%
2,359 3,969 4,318 5,103 5,430 8,320 8,613 9,018 8,671 13,901
138.52% 110.78% 121.78% 135.05% 130.18% 109.62% 99.47% 76.72% 59.69% 67.08%
24.25% 24.49% 24.90% 24.81% 24.86% 24.88% 24.86% 24.96% 24.86% 24.08%
4.54% 4.43% 4.28% 5.39% 5.32% 5.00% 4.68% 5.58% 5.42% 5.14%
3.09% 2.67% 3.43% 4.45% 4.84% 3.97% 3.45% 3.18% 3.43% 3.03%
2.50% 2.17% 2.66% 2.59% 3.55% 2.80% 2.97% 2.73% 2.92% 2.32%
11.49% 11.24% 10.63% 10.11% 9.56% 9.36% 9.36% 9.09% 8.97% 9.09%
13 24 18 30 45 62 15 42 77 174
74 180 186 146 131 372 395 438 436 802
-452% 429% 447% 248% 77% 107% 112% 200% 233% 116%
3.14% 4.54% 4.31% 2.86% 2.41% 4.47% 4.59% 4.86% 5.03% 5.77%
5 16 0
-10 -90
-6
-10 -29 -24 -12 -22 -17 -22 -24
23 36 50 83 73 84 82 76 63 47
2 2 -7 4 22 -20 9 20 -57 -73
-5
99 218 215 209 217 417 453 516 419 661
-25 -63 -64 -58 -64 -60 -89 -113 -93 -163
-0.25253 -0.28899 -0.29767 -0.27751 -0.29493 -0.14388 -0.19647 -0.21899 -0.22196 -0.2466
-11 -13 -34 -23 -20 -33 -8
74 155 152 139 140 323 341 384 293 491
-12 -23 -31 -23 -26 -15 -24 -16
1970 2300 2080 2750 2,600 2,810 2,380 2,860 2,600 2,980
52.71% 61.97% 42.47% 38.89% 31.98% 22.17% 14.42% 4.00% 0.00% 6.05%
1,471 1,269 1,173 1,060
59 69 60 82 72 85 74 104 90 111
52.47% 53.45% 34.15% 26.35% 22.83% 23.08% 23.13% 27.07% 25.10% 31.25%
2.98 3.00 2.89 2.98 2.77 3.02 3.11 3.64 3.47 3.73
-0.16% -5.26% -5.84% -9.03% -6.93% 0.74% 7.61% 22.19% 25.10% 23.76%
473 348 338 284
12,169 13,440 12,002 18,980 15,953 17,517 15,313 24,130 19,871 20,738
41.29% 49.04% 38.42% 36.54% 31.10% 30.33% 27.59% 27.13% 24.56% 18.39%
43.75% 66.47% 65.15% 65.63%
24.29% 24.12% 24.43% 23.54% 23.16% 22.04% 22.85% 21.72% 20.18% 19.50%
4.96% 5.00% 5.35% 4.85% 4.58% 4.29% 3.12% 4.22% 3.25% 4.34%
3.14% 3.23% 4.17% 3.29% 3.40% 3.31% 3.57% 3.23% 3.09% 2.97%
2.69% 2.92% 3.12% 2.48% 2.63% 2.56% 2.97% 2.01% 2.35% 2.46%
8.87% 8.57% 8.55% 8.68% 9.00% 9.39% 10.93% 8.89% 8.73% 9.15%
19.9168 19.3868 22.6216 20.5854 19.2239 17.044
32 53 139 134 170 185 103 74 112 279
596 644 529 939 737 622 448 884 663 400
51% 47% 21% 17% 24% -3% -15% -6% -10% -36%
4.90% 4.79% 4.41% 4.95% 4.62% 3.55% 2.93% 3.66% 3.34% 1.93%
-22 -22 -20 -21 -25 -19 -19 -19 -29 -39
28 28 22 29 26 30 19 27 60 62
-7 -21 32 47 -10 -37 -27 -17 -64 80
56 0 309
595 581 497 994 727 548 421 845 630 812
-131 -128 -136 -207 -166 -170 -102 -189 -106 -125
-0.22017 -0.22031 -0.27364 -0.20825 -0.22834 -0.31022 -0.24228 -0.22367 -0.16825 -0.15394
-17 -16 -16 -23 -18 -7 -1 4 1 2
447 438 345 763 543 371 318 660 525 689
-28 -14 2 -5 -9 -16 -20 -13 -5 7
475 452 343 768 552 386 338 673 530 682
0.29076 0.13283 0.08202 0.51779 0.16211 -0.14602 -0.01458 -0.1237 -0.03986 0.76684
3.90% 3.36% 2.86% 4.05% 3.46% 2.20% 2.21% 2.79% 2.67% 3.29%
2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4
27,200 41,800 33,800 35,100 31,700 47,600 28,900 38,400 38,300 59,300
-22% 15% 11% 11% 17% 14% -14% 9% 21% 25%
2,650 3,240 2,970 3,310 3,200 3,860 2,960 3,880 4,340 5,300
11.34% 13.29% 14.23% 11.07% 20.75% 19.14% -0.34% 17.22% 35.63% 37.31%
1,026 1,290 1,138 1,060 991 1,233 976 990 882 1,119
-30.20% 1.65% -2.99% 0.00% -3.49% -4.42% -14.21% -6.67% -10.92% -9.27%
96 140 117 148 128 175 122 171 173 227
29.32% 34.64% 29.16% 32.79% 33.33% 24.45% 4.46% 15.36% 35.42% 30.18%
3.61 4.33 3.92 4.47 3.99 4.52 4.11 4.39 3.98 4.29
16.15% 18.85% 13.07% 19.55% 10.42% 4.46% 4.82% -1.59% -0.15% -5.19%
284 298 290 237 248 273 237 225 222 261
-39.91% -14.48% -14.20% -16.35% -12.59% -8.50% -18.15% -5.16% -10.78% -4.30%
17,832 26,083 21,319 22,744 19,613 29,319 18,793 24,111 23,180 35,775
16.45% 8.09% 7.29% 9.67% 9.99% 12.41% -11.85% 6.01% 18.19% 22.02%
65.56% 62.40% 63.07% 64.80% 61.87% 61.59% 65.03% 62.79% 60.52% 60.33%
20.37% 20.64% 20.44% 22.38% 21.59% 23.88% 19.25% 20.49% 21.06% 21.94%
3.24% 4.28% 3.66% 3.86% 3.68% 3.22% 2.19% 4.27% 4.92% 4.76%
3.50% 3.15% 3.14% 3.10% 3.48% 5.91% 4.47% 3.34% 3.66% 3.51%
2.75% 2.04% 1.80% 1.86% 2.04% 1.24% 1.80% 1.27% 1.32% 0.76%
9.89% 8.04% 8.26% 9.67% 8.06% 7.00% 7.42% 6.95% 6.99% 6.12%
18.4222 14.9394 15.1245 14.8782 12.3824 11.7578 11.4518 9.83126 9.37203 9.63302
180 186 101 81 319 144 149 115 280 164
355 1003 863 965 1169 1775.43 782.191 1240.01 1248.11 2590
-21% 13% 30% 141% 229% 77% -9% 28% 7% 46%
1.99% 3.85% 4.05% 4.24% 5.96% 6.06% 4.16% 5.14% 5.38% 7.24%
318 986 1074 1041 1106 1721 914 1856.39 1445.81 2803
-103 -232 -244 -213 -212 -314 -173 -324.883 -247.757 -385
-0.3239 -0.23529 -0.22719 -0.20461 -0.19168 -0.18245 -0.18928 -0.17501 -0.17136 -0.13735
10 -60 47 -10 -12 2 -61 7.588 53.598 29
226 694 877 818 882 1410 681 1539.1 1251.65 2448
-3 5 5 4 -6 -46 -4 -2.179 -7.255 -7
229 689 872 814 875 1456 685 1536.92 1244.4 2441
-0.32249 0.02377 0.64528 0.19355 2.82096 1.11321 -0.21445 0.88811 0.42217 0.67651
1.28% 2.64% 4.09% 3.58% 4.46% 4.97% 3.65% 6.37% 5.37% 6.82%
2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4
46,100 48,100 40,200 57,000 47,497 49,557 41,418 58,727
60% 25% 5% -4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
4,580 5,110 4,390 4,920 4,626 5,161 4,434 4,969
54.73% 31.70% 1.15% -7.17% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
1,007 941 916 1,159 1,027 960 934 1,182
3.09% -4.89% 3.77% 3.55% 2.01% 2.01% 2.01% 2.01%
176 222 173 217 179 226 176 221
44.21% 29.91% 0.06% -4.58% 2.01% 2.01% 2.01% 2.01%
3.83 4.33 3.94 4.41 3.87 4.38 3.98 4.45
-6.80% -1.36% -1.08% 2.79% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
263 217 233 263 265 219 235 265
10.62% -3.58% 4.90% 0.73% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
28,398 29,608 24,922 34,132 28,498 29,734 24,851 35,236
51.11% 22.80% 7.51% -4.59% 0.35% 0.43% -0.28% 3.24%
61.60% 61.55% 61.99% 59.88% 60% 60% 60% 60%
19.70% 20.12% 19.43% 19.67% 20% 20% 20% 20%
4.56% 4.75% 4.98% 3.36% 4% 4% 4% 4%
3.37% 3.42% 4.10% 3.52% 4% 4% 4% 4%
1.19% 1.25% 1.47% 1.30% 1% 1% 1% 1%
6.31% 6.95% 6.49% 6.40% 6.28% 7.60% 7.10% 6.28%
10.2173 9.28896 9.35801 10.0672 10 10 10 10
298 361 177 89 90 90 90 90
1511.41 1470.51 770.786 1829.72 1,662.50 1,339.15 1,258.65 2,035.29
93% 19% -38% -29% 5.52% 4.20% 4.70% 5.52%
5.32% 4.97% 3.09% 5.36% 5.83% 4.50% 5.06% 5.78%