4.3 Worksheet
4.3 Worksheet
4.3 Worksheet
3 Binomial Distributions
Minds On:
Many events in games and industry rely on success or failure, and these often can be quantified with
probabilities. For example, in the game of Monopoly, success in getting out of jail means rolling doubles,
and failure means any other roll. When measuring the fit of car doors, success could be being with a
given gap tolerance. Think of other examples where success or failure could be quantified by probability.
In this activity, you will develop a binomial probability distribution for the number of red tiles selected in
four independent trials. Randomly select one tile from four red and three green tiles. Repeat four times
with replacement.
- a distribution with independent trials whose outcomes are either success or failure
2. Make a tree diagram that illustrates the probability distribution for the number of red tiles selected in
four trials. Label each branch with the outcome and its independent probability.
P(x)=4Cr(4/7)^x(3/7)^4-x
b) Write a formula for calculating the probability of 𝑥 red tiles in 𝑛 independent trials.
P(x)=nCr(4/7)^x(3/7)^n-x
c) Use your formula to calculate the probability of selecting two red tiles in five independent trials.
P(2)=5C2(4/7)^2(3/7)^3=0.2570
Two dice are rolled five times. What is the probability that doubles occur twice?
The probability of success(rolling doubles) on any individual roll of two dice is 1/6. The probability of failure
is 5/6.
There will be two successes and three failures in the five rolls. So, there is some combination of
(1/6)(1/6)(5/6)(5/6)(5/6)=(1/6)^2(5/6)^3
The doubles can occur on any two of the five rolls, in 5C2 ways. The three non-doubles can occur in the
remaining 3C3 ways.
The probability of success on two dice and failure on the other three is 5C2(1/6)^2 *3C3(5/7)^2
P(x=doubles)=5C2(1/6)^2(5/6)^3
=0.1608
The probability that doubles occur twice in five rolls is about 0.1608
Your Turn:
A card is repeatedly drawn from a deck and replaced each time. What is the probability that, in 10 tries,
and ace is cut
Each term in the expansion of (p+q)^n represents the probability of one possible
outcome in the probability distribution.
When determining the expectation for a binomial distribution, you can multiply the number of trials by
the probability of success in an individual trial instead of using the standard process.
E(X)=np
A random number generator provides a number between 1 and 100 over a total of five trials with
repetition permitted. Calculate a probability distribution for the number of times a prime number is
output.
P(5)=0.001, which means that selection five prime numbers is extremely rare.
E(X)=np
=(5)(0.25)
=1.25
On average, you can expect 1.25 prime numbers out of 5 randomly chosen numbers.
Your Turn:
A family has six children. Consider a probability distribution for the number of girls in the family.
The failure rate is 5% in the initial production run of a new computer chip. A quality control inspector
selects 30 chips for testing.
a) What is the probability that more than two of two are defective?
In this case, the probability of success means the failure of the chip, so
p=5%
=0.05
q=1-0.05
=0.95
P(x>2)=1-P(0)-P(1)-P(2)
=1-30C0(0.05)^0(0.95)^30-30C1(0.05)^1(0..95)^29-30C2(0.05)^2(0.95)^28
=0.1878
=18.78%
With a certain set of atmospheric conditions, the probability of rain is 40%. During a one-month period,
eight days had those conditions.
a) What is the probability that it rained on fewer than six of those days?
p=40%
=0.40
q=60%
=0.60
P(x<6)=95.02%