Stat Section 6.1 Study Guide Solutions
Stat Section 6.1 Study Guide Solutions
Stat Section 6.1 Study Guide Solutions
1 Study Guide
discrete random variable: random variable with a countable number of possible values; can list them
out with gaps in between
continuous random variable: random variable that takes on all values in some interval of numbers
2. A baseball player historically gets on base 30% of the time. Suppose you randomly select an at-
bat when the player got out. The following distribution represents the number of at-bats X since
the last time he got out.
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P 0.7000 0.2100 0.0630 0.0189 0.0060 0.0021
a. Verify that this is a legitimate probability distribution (hint: what must be true?)
0.7 + 0.21 + 0.063 + 0.0189 + 0.006 + 0.0021 = 1 AND all probabilities are between 0 and 1
OR square σx
d. Compute the standard deviation of the random variable. Interpret your result.
σX = √(.5981) = 0.7737 OR use 1-VAR STATS
When the player gets out, the number of at-bats since his last out will typically be 0.77 at-bats
away from the mean of 1.43.
e. For a randomly selected out, what is the probability that it has been exactly four at-bats
since the last out?
P(X = 4) = 0.0189
f. What is the probability that the batter would have four or more at-bats since his last out?
Based on your answer, would this be an unusual occurrence?
P(X ≥ 4) = 0.0189 + 0.006 + 0.0021 = 0.027
This is a low probability, so it seems fairly unlikely the batter would take this many at-bats
before an out.
g. Suppose in the last week, the player has had an average of four at-bats between getting out.
Does this mean that in the next week, his average should be below the expected value in
order to even out? Explain.
No, the expected value only describes the average in the long run. In the short term, each series
of at-bats is still unpredictable in how long it will be.
3. As part of a game you roll four standard dice. Let the random variable X represent the number
of 5’s rolled.
a. Create a probability distribution table to represent X.
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) (5/6)4 (1/6)(5/6)(5/6)(5/6) (1/6)(1/6)(5/6)(5/6) (1/6)(1/6)(1/6)(5/6) (1/6)4
= 0.4823 x 4 ways x 6 ways x 4 ways = 0.0008
= 0.3858 = 0.1157 = 0.0154
.5
.4
Probability
.3
.2
.1
0 1 2 3 4
# of 5’s rolled
c. Find and interpret the average value for X.
μX = 0(0.4823) + 1(0.3858) + 2(0.1157) + 3(0.0154) + 4(0.0008) = 0.667 OR use 1-VAR STATS
If you played this game many many times, on average 0.667 out of the four rolls would be a 5.
d. Find the variance and standard deviation for X. Interpret the standard deviation.
σX2 = (0 – 0.667)2(0.4823) + (1 – 0.667)2(0.3858) + (2 – 0.667)2 (0.1157) +
(3 – 0.667)2 (0.0154) + (4 – 0.667)2 (0.0008) = 0.556 OR square standard deviation
σX = √(0.556) = 0.745 OR use 1-VAR STATS
4. Explain what makes a game of chance (like a casino game) fair.
In a fair game, the cost to play the game is the same as the expected value of money won, so
that in the long run both parties come out even.
5. The density curve at the right represents the distribution of the random variable Y, representing
the waiting time in minutes for a train. (Area = probability)
a. What is the probability of waiting fewer than 10 minutes?
P(Y < 10) = ½(10)(0.01) = 0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
b. What is the probability of waiting more than 40 minutes? 0.01
6. Since 1900, the magnitude of earthquakes in California measuring higher than 0.1 on the Richter
Scale is normally distributed with μ = 6.2 and σ = 0.5.
X = magnitude of randomly selected earthquake
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected earthquake in California has a magnitude
less than 6.4?
P(X < 6.4) = P(Z < (6.4-6.2)/0.5 ) = P(Z < 0.4) = 0.6554 (using normal table)
b. Suppose you randomly select six California earthquakes. What is the probability that none of
them has a magnitude between 6.1 and 6.4?
For a single earthquake:
P(6.1 < X < 6.4) = P( (6.1-6.2)/0.5 < Z < (6.4-6.2)/0.5 ) = P(-0.2 < Z < 0.4) = 0.6554 – 0.4207
= 0.2347
c. Suppose you randomly select three California earthquakes. What is the probability that one
of them has a magnitude greater than 7.2?
P(X > 7.2) = P(Z > (7.2-6.2)/0.5 ) = P(Z > 2) = 0.0228