2.

Climate change impacts

throughout the water cycle
Climate change is one of the main global challenges of the as well as indicators commonly used for the quantification of
twenty-first century. GHG emissions do not only lead to an climate change impacts on water availability and hydrocli-
increase in global temperatures, but also have an impact on matic extremes. As most large-scale climate impact studies,
precipitation levels and global water resources. This chapter the present report focuses on changes in precipitation, eva­
introduces climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle, potranspiration, local runoff, and river discharge.

Key Messages of Chapter 2

 atural water storage (e.g. in ice and snow as well as groundwater and wetlands) and hydrological processes
N
will be heavily affected by climate change impacts.

C limate change is leading to an increase in average global temperatures, and consequently to the presence
of more energy in the hydro-climatic system. This will eventually cause an increase in evapotranspiration,
as well as an intensification of the water cycle.

T he global increase in precipitation is not evenly distributed across continents; in fact, many regions
might even receive less precipitation. Moreover, the local increase in evapotranspiration could be higher
than the potential increase in precipitation.

 igher temperatures, extreme weather events, and changes in water availability will also affect water quality.
H
However, relevant data is often not available, and future impacts remain mostly unclear.

CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE WATER CYCLE | 23

 2.1 Climate change and the hydrological cycle

The global water cycle describes the continuous movement a rise in global temperatures by almost 1°C in comparison
and storage of water on, above and below Earth’s surface to pre-industrial times (IPCC, 2013).
(see Figure 1). Only ~3% of Earth’s water is fresh water:
Most of it is stored in icecaps and glaciers (~63%) as well It is necessary to make a distinction between man-made
as groundwater (~36%), while all lakes, rivers and swamps global climate change and natural climate variability in
combined account for only a small fraction (~0.4%) of total order to account for the broader picture of water and climate
freshwater reserves (fractions based on numbers in Figure 1, relations. Climate variability is characterized by naturally
extracted from Trenberth et al., 2011). Water enters the occurring cycles, such as seasonal variations or periodic
atmosphere as water vapour through evaporation, plant changes in solar activity, or climate events, such as the El
transpiration and sublimation. Niño phenomenon. It is expected that a warmer climate
(more energy in the hydro-climatic system) will lead to an
The primary energy input stimulating the water cycle is intensification of the water cycle, mostly because of the
solar radiation. The anthropogenic increase of GHG con- increase in evapotranspiration (Kundzewicz and Schelln-
centration in the atmosphere has resulted in a net increase huber, 2004).
of radiation input. This increase in energy has already caused

Figure 1: The global water/ hydrological cycle with estimates of the current global water budget and its annual flow using
observations from 2002-2008 (units: 1000 km3 for storage and 1000 km3/yr for exchanges (Royal Meteorological Society,
data based on Trenberth et al., 2011)).

Indeed, observations show that since the late nineteenth precipitation has increased by 1-3%. However, precipitation
century, the mean global water vapour concentration in the and associated changes are difficult to quantify on a global
lower atmosphere has increased by ~7%, and global mean scale, and the latter number is associated with a large degree

24 | WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE – INTERLINKAGES AND PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE ACTION
of uncertainty (Wentz et al., 2007). The generation of pre- of surface water deficits by temporarily providing water
cipitation is controlled by the temperature of the troposphere, for domestic and agricultural uses when surface water is
which determines how much condensation, and thus pre- insufficiently available (Kundzewicz and Döll, 2009).
cipitation occurs. In addition, wind systems transporting The specific effects of climate change on groundwater are
wet and dry air masses affect the amount of rainfall a not clear yet. Uncertainties caused by downscaling, hydro-
region receives. logic models and groundwater recharge estimation can
reinforce each other. Studies show that, in general, ground-
There are strong indications that the global temperature water is very sensitive to climate variability and change,
increase, which is higher over continents, in high latitudes depending on climatic conditions, depth and thickness of
and in high mountains, has already led to changes in small- the aquifer and other factors (ibid.). This is due in part
and large-scale weather patterns (Di Capua and Coumou, to the consequences of climate change: Increased evapora-
2016; Coumou et al., 2015). As a result, the global increase tion from the soil surface, transpiration by plants, as well
in precipitation is not evenly distributed over continents; in as surface runoff will all reduce the amount of water that
fact, many regions now tend to receive even less precipita- remains available for infiltration into the ground.
tion than before. Moreover, an increase in precipitation
does not translate directly into more river discharge in a cer-  Climate change will also alter water quality.
tain region, since the higher energy input stimulates evapo-
transpiration, and the local increase in evapotranspiration Climate change also affects water quality. The impacts
can be higher than the potential increase in precipitation. of climate change on water quality are subject to a large
variety of specific factors and therefore even more difficult
 Natural water storage will be to project than impacts on water quantity.
heavily affected by climate change.
 igher temperatures stimulate the growth of algae and
H
Especially in mountainous areas, water stored in ice and bacteria, with adverse effects on aquatic ecology and
snow is an important component of the water cycle, as well humans. Another negative effect on the ecological integ-
as a source of freshwater for river basins inhabited or exploited rity of aquatic systems is that the oxygen solubility of
by humans. Such regions can be heavily affected by climate water decreases with warmer temperatures. During low
change. Scientists are observing a retreat of glaciers and a flow and drought conditions, i.e. when water stagnates
decrease of the share of water stored in snow and ice in many in rivers and lakes and reservoirs with very shallow water
parts of the world. This could change both the seasonality levels, both effects are aggravated, which has a severe
of discharge (e.g. elevated discharge from rainfall in winter negative impact on both aquatic communities and
instead of spring flow induced by snow melt) and water humans dependent on surface water resources. A gen-
availability (e.g. reduced summer discharge when less water eral rise in temperatures will also translate to shallow
from glaciers is present). Only in those few areas, in which aquifers, where higher potential evapotranspiration will
the increase of precipitation in the winter is larger than the increase recharge salinity.
increase in snow melt do glaciers exhibit a positive trend in
terms of mass.  reduction in water quantity will reduce the water’s
A
dilution capacity of pollutants and sediments, while an
Variations in the hydrological cycle stimulated by changes increase will have the opposite effect.
in precipitation and evapotranspiration have effects on river
discharge. However, expected climate change impacts vary  xtreme events might also cause water pollution, for
E
considerably around the globe and are associated with a large instance through flooding and landslides, affecting
degree of uncertainty. For some regions, such as northern water quality.
Europe, shifts in the hydrological regime are projected to
result in a different seasonality of annual discharge dynamics  ea level rise may contribute to groundwater saliniza-
S
caused by, for instance, earlier snow melt and replacement tion, even though abstraction seems to have a stronger
of snow by rainfall under increasing temperatures. In other impact on this process at the global level.
regions, such as the Mediterranean, projected increases in
evapotranspiration and decreases in rainfall are likely to It should be noted that effects are often indirect, particularly
result in less river discharge. Likewise, hydrological extremes, when it comes to water quality. For instance, increased
such as droughts and floods, are expected to change as well. irrigation due to drought can lead to unmanaged infiltration
of salty, nutrient-rich, but low-quality water into an aquifer.
Another essential part of the hydrological cycle is ground-
water storage and flow. Sustainable use of renewable
groundwater resources has the potential to reduce the impact

CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE WATER CYCLE | 25

 2.2 Indicators for investigating changes in water availability and hydroclimatic extremes

Different indicators are normally applied to investigate trends analyse impacts on components of the water cycle for which
and changes in water resources (e.g. groundwater, surface much less information is available (e.g. recharge for renewa-
water, glacier water), water availability (the quantity of water ble groundwater resources), or for which impacts of climate
resources) and hydrological extremes (floods and droughts). change are more difficult to estimate (e.g. actual evapotran-
Table 1 below provides a list of hydrological indicators often spiration as an indicator for plant productivity).
used in climate impact studies. Their advantage is that they
are mostly easy to monitor. These indicators are commonly Due to restrictions in data availability, case studies featured
used as outputs of hydrological models applied to simulate in this report focus on air temperature, precipitation, river
climate change impacts. However, data availability and quality discharge including monthly distribution, evapotranspira-
vary. In addition, some of the indicators can be used to tion and changes in 100-year return period discharge levels.

Used for report’s

Indicator Unit Relevance case studies

Precipitation as Rain and Snow mm per time unit Determines the maximal amount of available water, used to yes
(year, month) investigate annual trends and seasonal shifts

Potential Evapotranspiration mm per time unit Potential amount of water evaporated from the land surface yes
(year, month) (soil, lakes, reservoirs, etc.) and transpirated by plants under
unlimited water supply; Indicator for water demand of plants
and available energy in the hydro-climatic system

Actual Evapotranspiration mm per time unit Actual amount of water consumed by plant transpiration and yes
(year, month) surface evaporation; Additional indicator for changes in plant
productivity

Local Runoff mm per time unit Local water yield (precipitation minus actual no
(year, month) evapotranspiration)

Groundwater Recharge mm per time unit Water which percolates through the unsaturated soil layers and no
(year, month) reaches the groundwater table. Indicator to quantify impacts on
renewable groundwater resources

River Discharge m3 per time unit Integrates all water flows in a river catchment, indicator for yes
surface water availability, changes in seasonality and trends in
extremes (floods and droughts)

Return Period Time unit (year) Average time interval between events, such as floods or yes
droughts exceeding a specific magnitude. The higher the value,
the more extreme the event (e.g. a 30-year flood is still a moder-
ate flood, which occurs on average every 30 years, while a 100-
year flood is an extreme event)

Frequency of Exceedance 1 per time unit (year) Inverse of return period, i.e. number of times a certain threshold no
is exceeded over a specific time interval (e.g. a discharge value
which is exceeded on average once per year is an indicator for
high flows, while a discharge value which is exceeded on aver-
age 99% of the time is an indicator for low flows).

Water Temperature °C Water quality indicator determining oxygen concentration and no

growth of algae and bacteria; Information often not available
or difficult to obtain

Nutrient and Algae Concentration mg l−1 Water quality indicator determining growth of algae and bac- no
(nitrogen, phosphorous) teria; Information often not available or difficult to obtain

Table 1: List of selected hydrological indicators to analyse climate change impacts on water resources, water availability,
seasonality, and extremes

26 | WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE – INTERLINKAGES AND PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE ACTION
The main components of the water cycle are precipitation, In order to assess a change in hydrological extremes over
evapotranspiration, local runoff and river discharge. The time, two options are available: The first is to measure
hydrological cycle with associated water flows and storages the change in magnitude of an event with a previously
is very sensitive to any changes in precipitation and eva­ determined return period (e.g. the discharge of a 100-year
potranspiration (Hirabayashi et al., 2013; Prudhomme et flood). The second is to assess how the return period of
al., 2014). Especially in arid and semi-arid regions, actual a certain discharge level changes.
evapotranspiration nearly equals precipitation or is even
higher, and only a small fraction of precipitation reaches A specific approach for droughts entails counting the number
the surface water storages and groundwater. Actual (evapo) of days over a certain period, for example 30 years, in which
transpiration can further be used as a proxy for plant- generated runoff remains below a certain threshold, and
available water in a certain region, and hence for plant analysing how this number changes in future projections.
productivity.
 Most large-scale climate impact studies
River discharge refers to water flows in a river. River dis- on hydrology focus on changes in precipitation,
charge should not be confused with river runoff that is evapotranspiration, local runoff and
the amount of water concentrated in a river, reaching the river discharge.
river through surface, sub-surface, and groundwater runoff.
Runoff is subsequently often stored in lakes and reservoirs, In order to investigate the hydrological conditions of a
making it available for human consumption. It integrates region and possible changes, the state of different types of
all flow components and processes in the upstream river natural and built water storage systems, such as soil
catchment. Knowledge of river discharge characteristics moisture, groundwater, water in reservoirs, lakes and wet-
is essential for water resources planning and management, lands, are important indicators. However, data availability
flood forecasting and routing, and floodplain regulation. on sub-surface water resources, in particular, is limited,
Long-term average river discharge is a suitable indicator partly due to complex geological structures and incomplete
for studying the general and per capita water availability in knowledge on sub-surface conditions. This explains why
a basin. Moreover, discharge data with a higher temporal large-scale climate impact studies, including the present
resolution are suitable for the analysis of changes in seasonal report, mostly focus on changes in precipitation, evapo-
patterns, flood frequency and intensity, and low flow transpiration, local runoff and river discharge when
(drought) conditions. quantifying impacts on hydrology.

There are various possible approaches to characterizing While groundwater recharge is a useful indicator for inves-
hydrological extremes. High and low flows are commonly tigating and quantifying impacts on groundwater resources,
distinguished as events in which discharge is above or below it is mostly only available from hydrological models.
a certain threshold. The severity of the event is then deter- A decrease in groundwater recharge indicates a trend towards
mined statistically, by counting the number of events over lower groundwater availability.
a certain period (frequency of exceedance, e.g. six times
during 30 years), or by using the inverse of this value, e.g.
after how many years such an event occurs on average
(return period, e.g. five years).

CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE WATER CYCLE | 27

 References

2.3 References

Coumou, D., Lehmann J., and Beckmann J. (2015): The Weakening Summer Circulation
in the Northern Hemisphere Mid-latitudes. Science, 348 (6232), 324-327, DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1261768

Di Capua, G., and Coumou, D. (2016): Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation.
Environ. Res. Lett., 11 (9), 094028, DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028

Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S. (2013):
Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3, 816-821, DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013): Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
by Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V.,
and Midgley, P. M. (Eds.). Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.

Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Döll, P. (2009): Will groundwater ease freshwater stress under climate change?
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (4), 665–675, DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.4.665

Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Schellnhuber, H.-J. (2004): Floods in the IPCC TAR Perspective.
Natural Hazards, 31 (1), 111-128, DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000020257.09228.7b

Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arneli, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten,
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Hydrological droughts in the 21st century: hotspots and uncertainties from a global multi-model ensemble experiment.
PNAS, 111 (9), 3262–3267, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110

Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., and Mackaro, J. (2011): Atmospheric Moisture Transports from Ocean to Land
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CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE WATER CYCLE | 29