Problem Set 2

Emrah Er

1. Box I contains 6 green marbles and 4 yellow marbles. Box II contains 5 yellow marbles and 5
green marbles. A box is selected at random and a marble is selected from the box. If the marble
is green, find the probability it came from Box I.

2. Males and females are observed to react differently to a given set of circumstances. It has been
observed that 70% of the females react positively to these circumstances, whereas only 40% of
males react positively. A group of 20 people, 15 female and 5 male, was subjected to these cir-
cumstances, and the subjects were asked to describe their reactions on a written questionnaire.
A response picked at random from the 20 was negative. What is the probability that it was that
of a male?

3. Nilay takes a twenty-question multiple-choice exam where each question has five possible ans-
wers. Some of the answers she knows, while others she gets right just by making lucky guesses.
Suppose that the conditional probability of her knowing the answer to a randomly selected qu-
estion given that she got it right is 0.92. How many of the twenty questions was she prepared
for?

4. Let 𝑋 be a random variable with p.m.f. 𝑝𝑘 = 𝑐/2𝑘 for 𝑘 = 1, 2, ….

a. Determine the value of 𝑐.

b. Find 𝑃 (𝑋 > 4) and 𝑃 (6 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 8).

5. You and a friend play a game where you each toss a balanced coin. If the upper faces on the coins
are both tails, you win $1; if the faces are both heads, you win $2; if the coins do not match (one

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shows a head, the other a tail), you lose $1 (win (−$1)). Give the probability distribution for your
winnings, 𝑌 , on a single play of this game.

6. A rental agency, which leases heavy equipment by the day, has found that one expensive piece
of equipment is leased, on the average, only one day in five. If rental on one day is independent
of rental on any other day, find the probability distribution of 𝑌 , the number of days between
a pair of rentals.

7. Suppose that a lot of 5000 electrical fuses contains 5% defectives. If a sample of 5 fuses is tested,
find the probability of observing at least one defective.

8. The probability that a patient recovers from a stomach disease is 0.8. Suppose 20 people are
known to have contracted this disease. What is the probability that

a. at least 10 recover?
b. at least 14 but not more than 18 recover?
c. at most 16 recover?

9. A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited a doctor in any given
month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that exactly 3 will have visited
a doctor last month.

10. For persons infected with a certain form of malaria, the length of time spent in remission is
described by the continuous pdf 𝑓𝑌 (𝑦) = (1/9)𝑦2 , 0 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 3, where 𝑌 is measured in

years. What is the probability that a malaria patient’s remission lasts longer than one year?

11. Suppose 𝑓𝑌 (𝑦) = 4𝑦3 , 0 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 1. Find 𝑃 (0 ≤ 𝑌 ≤ 1/2).

12. Suppose 𝑌 is an exponential random variable with 𝑓𝑌 (𝑦) = 𝜆𝑒−𝜆𝑦 where 𝑦 ≥ 0. Find 𝐹𝑌 (𝑦).

13. A study claims that the daily number of hours, 𝑋 , a teenager watches television and the daily
number of hours, 𝑌 , he works on his homework are approximated by the joint pdf

𝑓𝑋,𝑌 (𝑥, 𝑦) = 𝑥𝑦𝑒−𝑥+𝑦 , 𝑥 > 0, 𝑦 > 0

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What is the probability that a teenager chosen at random spends at least twice as much time
watching television as he does working on his homework?

14. Suppose that five independent observations are drawn from the continuous pdf

𝑓𝑇 (𝑡) = 2𝑡, 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 1

Let 𝑋 denote the number of 𝑡’s that fall in the interval 0 ≤ 𝑡 < 1/3 and let 𝑌 denote the
number of 𝑡’s that fall in the interval 1/3 ≤ 𝑡 < 2/3. Find 𝑝𝑋𝑌 (1, 2).

15. A soft-drink machine has a random amount 𝑌2 in supply at the beginning of a given day and
dispenses a random amount 𝑌1 during the day (with measurements in liters). It is not resupplied
during the day, and hence 𝑌1 ≤ 𝑌2 . It has been observed that 𝑌1 and 𝑌2 have a joint density
given by
⎧
{
{1/2, 0 ≤ 𝑦1 ≤ 𝑦 2 ≤ 2
𝑓(𝑦1 , 𝑦2 ) = ⎨
{
{0, elsewhere
⎩
That is, the points (𝑦1 , 𝑦2 ) are uniformly distributed over the triangle with the given bounda-
ries. Find the conditional density of 𝑌1 given 𝑌2 = 𝑦2 . Evaluate the probability that less than
1/2 liters will be sold, given that the machine contains 1.5 liters at the start of the day.

16. If the pdf for 𝑌 is

⎧ 0 |𝑦| > 1
{
𝑓𝑌 (𝑦) = ⎨
{ 1 − |𝑦| |𝑦| ≤ 1
⎩
Find 𝐹𝑌 (𝑦).

17. Suppose that 𝑋 and 𝑌 have the following joint distribution.

⎧ 3
{
{𝑘𝑥 𝑦 0<𝑥<𝑦<1
𝑓𝑋,𝑌 =⎨
{
{0 otherwise
⎩

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a. What is the value of 𝑘?

b. What is the marginal pdf of 𝑋 , 𝑓𝑋 (𝑥)?
c. What is the value of 𝑋 ’s cdf 𝐹𝑋 (𝑥) at 𝑥 = 1/2?
d. What is the conditional pdf of 𝑌 , 𝑓(𝑦|𝑥)?

18. Let 𝑌1 and 𝑌2 have joint density function

⎧ −(𝑦 +𝑦 )
{
{𝑒 1 2 , 𝑦1 > 0, 𝑦2 > 0
𝑓 (𝑦1 , 𝑦2 ) = ⎨
{
{0, elsewhere
⎩

a. What is 𝑃 (𝑌1 < 1, 𝑌2 > 5)?

b. What is 𝑃 (𝑌1 + 𝑌2 < 3)?

19. Given here is the joint probability function associated with data obtained in a study of auto-
mobile accidents in which a child (under age 5 years) was in the car and at least one fatality
occurred. Specifically, the study focused on whether or not the child survived and what type of
seat belt (if any) he or she used. Define

⎧ ⎧
{ {0, if no belt used,
{ {
{ 0, if child survived, {
𝑌1 = ⎨ and 𝑌2 = ⎨1, if adult belt used,
{ 1, if not, {
{ {
{ {2, if car-seat belt used.
⎩ ⎩

Notice that 𝑌1 is the number of fatalities per child and, since children’s car seats usually utilize
two belts, 𝑌2 is the number of seat belts in use at the time of the accident. Using Table 1 answer
the following questions.
a. Find 𝐹 (1, 2). What is the interpretation of this value?
b. Give the marginal probability functions for 𝑌1 and 𝑌2 .
c. Give the conditional probability function for 𝑌2 given 𝑌1 = 0.
d. What is the probability that a child survived given that he or she was in a car-seat belt?

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𝑦1
𝑦2 0 1 Total
0 .38 .17 .55
1 .14 .02 .16
2 .24 .05 .29
Total .76 .24 1.00

Table 1: Joint Probability Function

e. Are 𝑌1 and 𝑌2 independent? Why or why not?

20. Osman Abi is interested in the joint behavior of the random variables 𝑌1 , defined as the total
time between a customer’s arrival at the tea house and departure from the service window, and
𝑌2 , the time a customer waits in line before reaching the service window. Because 𝑌1 includes

the time a customer waits in line, we must have 𝑌1 ≥ 𝑌2 . The relative frequency distribution
of observed values of 𝑌1 and 𝑌2 can be modeled by the probability density function

⎧ −𝑦
{
{𝑒 1 , 0 ≤ 𝑦2 ≤ 𝑦 1 < ∞
𝑓 (𝑦1 , 𝑦2 ) = ⎨
{
{0, elsewhere
⎩

with time measured in minutes. Find

a. 𝑃 (𝑌1 < 2, 𝑌2 > 1).
b. 𝑃 (𝑌1 ≥ 2𝑌2 )
c. 𝑃 (𝑌1 − 𝑌2 ≥ 1). (Notice that 𝑌1 − 𝑌2 denotes the time spent at the service window.)