Flood Prediction Using Machine Learning

Models: Literature Review

Amir Mosavi 1,*, Pinar Ozturk 1 and Kwok-wing Chau 2
1 Department of Computer Science (IDI), Norwegian University of Science and Technology

(NTNU), Trondheim, NO-7491, Norway

2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University,

Hong Kong, China; [email protected]

*Correspondence: [email protected]

Abstract: Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly

complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models

contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life,

and reduction the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex

mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades,

machine learning (ML) methods contributed highly in the advancement of prediction

systems providing better performance and cost-effective solutions. Due to the vast

benefits and potential of ML, its popularity dramatically increased among hydrologists.

Researchers through introducing novel ML methods and hybridizing of the existing ones

aim at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution

of this paper is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and

to give insight into the most suitable models. In this paper, the literature where ML

models were benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy,

effectiveness, and speed are particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview

on the various ML algorithms used in the field. The performance comparison of ML

models presents an in-depth understanding of the different techniques within the

framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As a result, this paper

introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term

floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction

models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm

 ensemble, and model optimization are reported as the most effective strategies for the

improvement of ML methods. This survey can be used as a guideline for hydrologists as

well as climate scientists in choosing the proper ML method according to the prediction

task.

Keywords: flood prediction; flood forecasting; flash-flood model, big flood management;
hydrologic model; rainfall–runoff, hybrid & ensemble machine learning; artificial neural
networks (ANNs); support vector machines (SVM); natural hazards & disasters; adaptive
neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS); decision trees (DT); internet of things (IoT);
random forest (RF); survey; classification and regression trees (CART), data science; deep
learning; big data; bagging, boosting, artificial intelligence (AI); soft computing; extreme
event management; time series prediction; multilayer perceptron (MLP); simulated
annealing (SA); multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), supervised learning

1. Introduction

Among the natural disasters, floods are the most destructive, causing massive

damage to human life, infrastructure, agriculture, and the socioeconomic system.

Governments, therefore, are under pressure to develop reliable and accurate maps of flood

risk areas and further plan for sustainable flood risk management focusing on prevention,

protection, and preparedness [1]. Flood prediction models are of significant importance

for hazard assessment and extreme event management. Robust and accurate prediction

contribute highly to water recourse management strategies, policy suggestions and

analysis, and further evacuation modeling [2]. Thus, the importance of advanced systems

for short-term and long-term prediction for flood and other hydrological events is strongly

emphasized to alleviate damage [3]. However, the prediction of flood lead time and

occurrence location is fundamentally complex due to the dynamic nature of climate

condition. Therefore, today’s major flood prediction models are mainly data-specific and

involve various simplified assumptions [4]. Thus, to mimic the complex mathematical

expressions of physical processes and basin behavior, such models benefit from specific
techniques e.g., event-driven, empirical black box, lumped and distributed, stochastic,

deterministic, continuous, and hybrids [5].

Physically based models [6] were long used to predict hydrological events, such as

storm [7,8], rainfall/runoff [9,10], shallow water condition [11], hydraulic models of flow

[12,13], and further global circulation phenomena [14], including the coupled effects of

atmosphere, ocean, and floods [15]. Although physical models showed great capabilities

for predicting a diverse range of flooding scenarios, they often require various types of

hydro-geomorphological monitoring datasets, requiring intensive computation, which

prohibits short-term prediction [16]. Furthermore, as stated in Reference [17], the

development of physically based models often requires in-depth knowledge and expertise

regarding hydrological parameters, reported to be highly challenging. Moreover,

numerous studies suggest that there is a gap in short-term prediction capability of physical

models (Costabile and Macchione [15]). For instance, on many occasions, such models

failed to predict properly [18]. Van den Honert and McAneney [18] documented the failure

in the prediction of floods accrued in Queensland, Australia in 2010. Similarly, numerical

prediction models [19] were reported in the advancement of deterministic calculations,

and were not reliable due to systematic errors [20]. Nevertheless, major improvements in

physically based models of flood were recently reported through the hybridization of

models [21], as well as advanced flow simulations [22,23].

In addition to numerical and physical models, data-driven models also have a long

tradition in flood modeling, which recently gained more popularity. Data-driven methods

of prediction assimilate the measured climate indices and hydro-meteorological

parameters to provide better insight. Among them, statistical models of autoregressive

moving average (ARMA) [24], multiple linear regression (MLR) [25], and autoregressive

integrated moving average (ARIMA) [26] are the most common flood frequency analysis

(FFA) methods for modeling flood prediction. FFA was among the early statistical

methods for predicting floods [27]. Regional flood frequency analyses (RFFA) [28], more

advanced versions, were reported to be more efficient when compared to physical models

considering computation cost and generalization. Assuming floods as stochastic processes,

they can be predicted using certain probability distributions from historical streamflow

data [29]. For instance, the climatology average method (CLIM) [28], empirical orthogonal

function (EOF) [30], multiple linear regressions (MLR), quantile regression techniques

(QRT) [31], and Bayesian forecasting models [32] are widely used for predicting major

floods. However, they were reported to be unsuitable for short-term prediction, and, in

this context, they need major improvement due to the lack of accuracy, complexity of the

usage, computation cost, and robustness of the method. Furthermore, for reliable long-

term prediction, at least, a decade of data from measurement gauges should be analyzed

for a meaningful forecast [32]. In the absence of such a dataset, however, FFA can be done

using hydrologic models of RFFA, e.g., MISBA [33] and Sacramento [34], as reliable

empirical methods with regional applications, where streamflow measurements are

unavailable. In this context, distributed numerical models are used as an attractive solution

[35]. Nonetheless, they do not provide quantitative flood predictions, and their forecast

skill level is “only moderate” and they lack accuracy [36].

The drawbacks of the physically based and statistical models mentioned above

encourage the usage of advanced data-driven models, e.g., machine learning (ML). A

further reason for the popularity of such models is that they can numerically formulate the

flood nonlinearity, solely based on historical data without requiring knowledge about the

underlying physical processes. Data-driven prediction models using ML are promising

tools as they are quicker to develop with minimal inputs. ML is a field of artificial

intelligence (AI) used to induce regularities and patterns, providing easier implementation

with low computation cost, as well as fast training, validation, testing, and evaluation, with

high performance compared to physical models, and relatively less complexity [37]. The

continuous advancement of ML methods over the last two decades demonstrated their

suitability for flood forecasting with an acceptable rate of outperforming conventional

approaches [38]. A recent investigation by Reference [39], which compared performance

of a number of physical and ML prediction models, showed a higher accuracy of ML

models. Furthermore, the literature includes numerous successful experiments of

quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) using ML methods for different lead-time

predictions [40,41]. In comparison to traditional statistical models, ML models were used

for prediction with greater accuracy [42]. Ortiz-García et al. [43] described how ML

techniques could efficiently model complex hydrological systems such as floods. Many ML

algorithms, e.g., artificial neural networks (ANNs) [44], neuro-fuzzy [45,46], support

vector machine (SVM) [47], and support vector regression (SVR) [48,49], were reported as

effective for both short-term and long-term flood forecast. In addition, it was shown that

the performance of ML could be improved through hybridization with other ML methods,

soft computing techniques, numerical simulations, and/or physical models. Such

applications provided more robust and efficient models that can effectively learn complex

flood systems in an adaptive manner. Although the literature includes numerous

evaluation performance analyses of individual ML models [49–52], there is no definite

conclusion reported with regards to which models function better in certain applications.

In fact, the literature includes only a limited number of surveys on specific ML methods in

specific hydrology fields [53–55]. Consequently, there is a research gap for a

comprehensive literature review in the general applications of ML in all flood resource

variables from the perspective of ML modeling and data-driven prediction systems.

Nonetheless, ML algorithms have important characteristics that need to be carefully

taken into consideration. The first is that they are as good as their training, whereby the

system learns the target task based on past data. If the data is scarce or does not cover

varieties of the task, their learning falls short, and hence, they cannot perform well when

they are put into work. Therefore, using robust data enrichment is essential through, e.g.,

implementing a distribution function of sums of weights [56], invariance assessments to

retain the group characteristics [57], or recovering the missing variables using causally

dependent coefficients [58].

The second aspect is the capability of each ML algorithm, which may vary across

different types of tasks. This can also be called a “generalization problem”, which indicates

how well the trained system can predict cases it was not trained for, i.e., whether it can

predict beyond the range of the training dataset. For example, some algorithms may

perform well for short-term predictions, but not for long-term predictions. These
characteristics of the algorithms need to be clarified with respect to the type and amount

of available training data, and the type of prediction task, e.g., water level and streamflow.

In this review, we look into examples of the use of various ML algorithms for various types

of tasks. At the abstract level, we decided to divide the target tasks into short-term and

long-term prediction. We then reviewed ML applications for flood-related tasks, where we

structured ML methods as single methods and hybrid methods. Hybrid methods are those

that combine more than one ML method.

Here, we should note that this paper surveys ML models used for predictions of

floods on sites where rain gauges or intelligent sensing systems used. Our goal was to

survey prediction models with various lead times to floods at a particular site. From this

perspective, spatial flood prediction was not involved in this study, as we did not study

prediction models used to estimate/identify the location of floods. In fact, we were

concerned only with the lead time for an identified site.

2. Method and Outline

This survey identifies the state of the art of ML methods for flood prediction where

peer-reviewed articles in top-level subject fields are reviewed. Among the articles

identified, through search queries using the search strategy, those including the

performance evaluation and comparison of ML methods were given priority to be

included in the review to identify the ML methods that perform better in particular

applications. Furthermore, to choose an article, four types of quality measure for each

article were considered, i.e., source normalized impact per paper (SNIP), CiteScore,

SCImago journal rank (SJR), and h-index. The papers were reviewed in terms of flood

resource variables, ML methods, prediction type, and the obtained results.

The applications in flood prediction can be classified according to flood resource

variables, i.e., water level, river flood, soil moisture, rainfall–discharge, precipitation, river

inflow, peak flow, river flow, rainfall–runoff, flash flood, rainfall, streamflow, seasonal

stream flow, flood peak discharge, urban flood, plain flood, groundwater level, rainfall

stage, flood frequency analysis, flood quantiles, surge level, extreme flow, storm surge,
typhoon rainfall, and daily flows [59]. Among these key influencing flood resource

variables, rainfall and the spatial examination of the hydrologic cycle had the most

remarkable role in runoff and flood modeling [60]. This is the reason why quantitative

rainfall prediction, including avalanches, slush flow, and melting snow, is traditionally

used for flood prediction, especially in the prediction of flash floods or short-term flood

prediction [61]. However, rainfall prediction was shown to be inadequate for accurate

flood prediction. For instance, the prediction of streamflow in a long-term flood prediction

scenario depends on soil moisture estimates in a catchment, in addition to rainfall [62].

Although, high-resolution precipitation forecasting is essential, other flood resource

variables were considered in the [63]. Thus, the methodology of this literature review aims

to include the most effective flood resource variables in the search queries.

A combination of these flood resource variables and ML methods was used to

implement the complete list of search queries. Note that the ML methods for flood

prediction may vary significantly according to the application, dataset, and prediction

type. For instance, ML methods used for short-term water level prediction are significantly

different from those used for long-term streamflow prediction. Figure 1 represents the

organization of the search queries and further describes the survey search methodology.

The search query included three main search terms. The flood resource variables were

considered as term 1 of the search (<Flood resource variable1-n>), which included 25

keywords for search queries mentioned above. Term 2 of search (<ML method1-m>)

included the ML algorithms. The collection of the references [16,26,28,37,38,42,44] provides

a complete list of ML methods, from which the 25 most popular algorithms in engineering

applications were used as the keywords of this search. Term 3 included the four search

terms most often used in describing flood prediction, i.e., “prediction”, “estimation”,

“forecast”, or “analysis”. The total search resulted in 6596 articles. Among them, 180

original research papers were refined through our quality measure included in the survey.
 T1 T2 T3
<V1> OR <Vn> <ML1> OR <MLn> <C1> OR <Cn>

AND AND

Q1-n

Figure 1. Flowchart of the search queries.

Section 3 presents the state of the art of ML in flood prediction. A technical description

on the ML method and a brief background in flood applications are provided. Section 4

presents the survey of ML methods used for short-term flood prediction. Section 5 presents

the survey of ML methods used for long-term flood prediction. Section 6 presents the

conclusions.

3. State of the Art of ML Methods in Flood Prediction

For creating the ML prediction model, the historical records of flood events, in

addition to real-time cumulative data of a number of rain gauges or other sensing devices

for various return periods, are often used. The sources of the dataset are traditionally

rainfall and water level, measured either by ground rain gauges, or relatively new remote-

sensing technologies such as satellites, multisensor systems, and/or radars [62].

Nevertheless, remote sensing is an attractive tool for capturing higher-resolution data in

real time. In addition, the high resolution of weather radar observations often provides a

more reliable dataset compared to rain gauges [63]. Thus, building a prediction model

based on a radar rainfall dataset was reported to provide higher accuracy in general [64].

Whether using a radar-based dataset or ground gauges to create a prediction model, the

historical dataset of hourly, daily, and/or monthly values is divided into individual sets to
construct and evaluate the learning models. To do so, the individual sets of data undergo

training, validation, verification, and testing. The principle behind the ML modeling

workflow and the strategy for flood modeling are described in detail in the literature

[48,65]. Figure 2 represents the basic flow for building an ML model. The major ML

algorithms applied to flood prediction include ANNs [66], neuro-fuzzy [67], adaptive

neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) [68], support vector machines (SVM) [69], wavelet

neural networks (WNN) [70], and multilayer perceptron (MLP) [71]. In the following

subsections, a brief description and background of these fundamental ML algorithms are

presented.

Figure 2. Basic flow for building the machine learning (ML) model.

3.1. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)

ANNs are efficient mathematical modeling systems with efficient parallel processing,

enabling them to mimic the biological neural network using inter-connected neuron units.

Among all ML methods, ANNs are the most popular learning algorithms, known to be

versatile and efficient in modeling complex flood processes with a high fault tolerance and

accurate approximation [39]. In comparison to traditional statistical models, the ANN

approach was used for prediction with greater accuracy [72]. ANN algorithms are the most

popular for modeling flood prediction since their first usage in the 1990s [73]. Instead of a

catchment’s physical characteristics, ANNs derive meaning from historical data. Thus,

ANNs are considered as reliable data-driven tools for constructing black-box models of

complex and nonlinear relationships of rainfall and flood [74], as well as river flow and

discharge forecasting [75]. Furthermore, a number of surveys (e.g., Reference [76]) suggest

ANN as one of the most suitable modeling techniques which provide an acceptable

generalization ability and speed compared to most conventional models. References

[77,78] provided reviews on ANN applications in flood. ANNs were already successfully

used for numerous flood prediction applications, e.g., streamflow forecasting [79], river

flow [80,81], rainfall–runoff [82], precipitation–runoff modeling [83], water quality [55],

evaporation [56], river stage prediction [84], low-flow estimation [85], river flows [86], and

river time series [57]. Despite the advantages of ANNs, there are a number drawbacks

associated with using ANNs in flood modeling, e.g., network architecture, data handling,

and physical interpretation of the modeled system. A major drawback when using ANNs

is the relatively low accuracy, the urge to iterate parameter tuning, and the slow response

to gradient-based learning processes [87]. Further drawbacks associated with ANNs

include precipitation prediction [88,89] and peak-value prediction [90].

The feed-forward neural network (FFNN) [25] is a class of ANN, whereby the

network’s connections are not in cyclical form. FFNNs are the simplest type of ANN,

whereby information moves in a forward direction from input nodes to the hidden layer

and later to output nodes. On the other hand, a recurrent neural network (RNN) [91] is a

class of ANN, whereby the network’s connections form a time sequence for dynamic

temporal behavior. Furthermore, RNNs benefit from extra memory to analyze input

sequences. In ANNs, backpropagation (BP) is a multi-layered NN where weights are

calculated using the propagation of the backward error gradient. In BP, there are more

phases in the learning cycle, using a function for activation to send signals to the other

nodes. Among various ANNs, the backpropagation ANN (BPNN) was identified as the

most powerful prediction tool suitable for flood time-series prediction [26]. Extreme
learning machine (ELM) [92] is an easy-to-use form of FFNN, with a single hidden layer.

Here, ELM was studied under the scope of ANN methods. ELM for flood prediction

recently became of interest for hydrologists and was used to model short-term streamflow

with promising results [93,94].

3.2. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)

The vast majority of ANN models for flood prediction are often trained with a BPNN

[95]. While BPNNs are today widely used in this realm, the MLP—an advanced

representation of ANNs— recently gained popularity [96]. The MLP [97] is a class of FFNN

which utilizes the supervised learning of BP for training the network of interconnected

nodes of multiple layers. Simplicity, nonlinear activation, and a high number of layers are

characteristics of the MLP. Due to these characteristics, the model was widely used in flood

prediction and other complex hydrogeological models [98]. In an assessment of ANN

classes used in flood modeling, MLP models were reported to be more efficient with better

generalization ability. Nevertheless, the MLP is generally found to be more difficult to

optimize [99]. Back-percolation learning algorithms are used to individually calculate the

propagation error in hidden network nodes for a more advanced modeling approach.

Here, it is worth mentioning that the MLP, more than any other variation of ANNs

(e.g., FFNN, BPNN, and FNN), gained popularity among hydrologists. Furthermore, due

to the vast number of case studies using the standard form of MLP, it diverged from

regular ANNs. In addition, the authors of articles in the realm of flood prediction using

the MLP refer to their models as MLP models. From this perspective, we decided to devote

a separate section to the MLP.

3.3. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

The fuzzy logic of Zadeh [100] is a qualitative modeling scheme with a soft computing

technique using natural language. Fuzzy logic is a simplified mathematical model, which

works on incorporating expert knowledge into a fuzzy inference system (FIS). An FIS

further mimics human learning through an approximation function with less complexity,
which provides great potential for nonlinear modeling of extreme hydrological events

[101,102], particularly floods [103]. For instance, Reference [104] studied river level

forecasting using an FIS, as did Lohani et al. (2011) [4] for rainfall–runoff modeling for

water level. As an advanced form of fuzzy-rule-based modeling, neuro-fuzzy presents a

hybrid of the BPNN and the widely used least-square error method [46]. The Takagi–

Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy modeling technique [4], which is created using neuro-fuzzy clustering,

is also widely applied in RFFA [28].

Adaptive neuro-FIS, or so-called ANFIS, is a more advanced form of neuro-fuzzy

based on the T–S FIS, first coined [67,77]. Today, ANFIS is known to be one of the most

reliable estimators for complex systems. ANFIS technology, through combining ANN and

fuzzy logic, provides higher capability for learning [101]. This hybrid ML method

corresponds to a set of advanced fuzzy rules suitable for modeling flood nonlinear

functions. An ANFIS works by applying neural learning rules for identifying and tuning

the parameters and structure of an FIS. Through ANN training, the ANFIS aims at catching

the missing fuzzy rules using the dataset [67]. Due to fast and easy implementation,

accurate learning, and strong generalization abilities, ANFIS became very popular in flood

modeling. The study of Lafdani et al. [60] further described its capability in modeling

short-term rainfall forecasts with high accuracy, using various types of streamflow,

rainfall, and precipitation data. Furthermore, the results of Shu and [67] showed easier

implementation and better generalization capability, using the one-pass subtractive

clustering algorithm, which led several rounds of random selection being avoided.

3.4. Wavelet Neural Network (WNN)

Wavelet transform (WT) [46] is a mathematical tool which can be used to extract

information from various data sources by analyzing local variations in time series [50]. In

fact, WT has significantly positive effects on modeling performance [105]. Wavelet

transforms supports the reliable decomposition of an original time series to improve data

quality. The accuracy of prediction is improved through discrete WT (DWT), which

decomposes the original data into bands, leading to an improvement of flood prediction
lead times [106]. DWT decomposes the initial data set into individual resolution levels for

extracting better-quality data for model building. DWTs, due to their beneficial

characteristics, are widely used in flood time-series prediction. In flood modeling, DWTs

were widely applied in, e.g., rainfall–runoff [51[, daily streamflow [106], and reservoir

inflow [107]. Furthermore, hybrid models of DWTs, e.g., wavelet-based neural networks

(WNNs) [108], which combine WT and FFNNs, and wavelet-based regression models

[109], which integrate WT and multiple linear regression (MLR), were used in time-series

predictions of floods [110]. The application of WNN for flood prediction was reviewed in

Reference [70], where it was concluded that WNNs can highly enhance model accuracy. In

fact, most recently, WNNs, due to their potential in enhancing time-series data, gained

popularity in flood modeling [50], for applications such as daily flow [111], rainfall–runoff

[112], water level [113], and flash floods [114].

3.5. Support Vector Machine (SVM)

Hearst et al. [115] proposed and classified the support vector (SV) as a nonlinear

search algorithm using statistical learning theory. Later, the SVM [116] was introduced as

a class of SV, used to minimize over-fitting and reduce the expected error of learning

machines. SVM is greatly popular in flood modeling; it is a supervised learning machine

which works based on the statistical learning theory and the structural risk minimization

rule. The training algorithm of SVM builds models that assign new non-probabilistic

binary linear classifiers, which minimize the empirical classification error and maximize

the geometric margin via inverse problem solving. SVM is used to predict a quantity

forward in time based on training from past data. Over the past two decades, the SVM was

also extended as a regression tool, known as support vector regression (SVR) [117].

SVMs are today know as robust and efficient ML algorithms for flood prediction [118].

SVM and SVR emerged as alternative ML methods to ANNs, with high popularity among

hydrologists for flood prediction. They use the statistical learning theory of structural risk

minimization (SRM), which provides a unique architecture for delivering great

generalization and superior efficiency. Most importantly, SVMs are both suitable for linear
and nonlinear classification, and the efficient mapping of inputs into feature spaces [119].

Thus, they were applied in numerous flood prediction cases with promising results,

excellent generalization ability, and better performance, compared to ANNs and MLRs,

e.g., extreme rainfall [120], precipitation [43], rainfall–runoff [121], reservoir inflow [122],

streamflow [123], flood quantiles [48], flood time series [124], and soil moisture [125].

Unlike ANNs, SVMs are more suitable for nonlinear regression problems, to identify the

global optimal solution in flood models [126]. Although the high computation cost of using

SVMs and their unrealistic outputs might be demanding, due to their heuristic and semi-

black-box nature, the least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM) highly improved

performance with acceptable computational efficiency [127]. The alternative approach of

LS-SVM involves solving a set of linear tasks instead of complex quadratic problems [128].

Nevertheless, there are still a number of drawbacks that exist, especially in the application

of seasonal flow prediction using LS-SVM [129].

3.6. Decision Tree (DT)

The ML method of DT is one of the contributors in predictive modeling with a wide

application in flood simulation. DT uses a tree of decisions from branches to the target

values of leaves. In classification trees (CT), the final variables in a DT contain a discrete

set of values where leaves represent class labels and branches represent conjunctions of

features labels. When the target variable in a DT has continuous values and an ensemble

of trees is involved, it is called a regression tree (RT) [130]. Regression and classification

trees share some similarities and differences. As DTs are classified as fast algorithms, they

became very popular in ensemble forms to model and predict floods [131]. The

classification and regression tree (CART) [132,133], which is a popular type of DT used in

ML, was successfully applied to flood modeling; however, its applicability to flood

prediction is yet to be fully investigated [134]. The random forests (RF) method [69,135] is

another popular DT method for flood prediction [136]. RF includes a number of tree

predictors. Each individual tree creates a set of response predictor values associated with

a set of independent values. Furthermore, an ensemble of these trees selects the best choice
of classes [69]. Reference [137] introduced RF as an effective alternative to SVM, which

often delivers higher performance in flood prediction modeling. Later, Bui et al. [138]

compared the performances of ANN, SVM, and RF in general applications to floods,

whereby RF delivered the best performance. Another major DT is the M5 decision-tree

algorithm [139]. M5 constructs a DT by splitting the decision space and single attributes,

thereby decreasing the variance of the final variable. Further DT algorithms popular in

flood prediction include reduced-error pruning trees (REPTs), Naïve Bayes trees (NBTs),

chi-squared automatic interaction detectors (CHAIDs), logistic model trees (LMTs),

alternating decision trees (ADTs), and exhaustive CHAIDs (E-CHAIDs).

3.7. Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs)

A multitude of ML modeling options were introduced for flood modeling with a

strong background [140]. Thus, there is an emerging strategy to shift from a single model

of prediction to an ensemble of models suitable for a specific application, cost, and dataset.

ML ensembles consist of a finite set of alternative models, which typically allow more

flexibility than the alternatives. Ensemble ML methods have a long tradition in flood

prediction. In recent years, ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) [141] were proposed as

efficient prediction systems to provide an ensemble of N forecasts. In EPS, N is the number

of independent realizations of a model probability distribution. EPS models generally use

multiple ML algorithms to provide higher performance using an automated assessment

and weighting system [140]. Such a weighting procedure is carried out to accelerate the

performance evaluation process. The advantage of EPS is the timely and automated

management and performance evaluation of the ensemble algorithms. Therefore, the

performance of EPS, for flood modeling in particular, can be improved. EPSs may use

multiple fast-learning or statistical algorithms as classifier ensembles, e.g., ANNs, MLP,

DTs, rotation forest (RF) bootstrap, and boosting, allowing higher accuracy and

robustness. The subsequent ensemble prediction systems can be used to quantify the

probability of floods, based on the prediction rate used in the event [142,143,144].

Therefore, the quality of ML ensembles can be calculated based on the verification of

probability distribution. Ouyang et al [145] and Zhang et al. [146] presented a review of

the applications of ensemble ML methods used for floods. EPSs were demonstrated to have

the capability for improving model accuracy in flood modeling [140-146]

To improve the accuracy of import data and to achieve better dataset management,

the ensemble mean was proposed as a powerful approach coupled with ML methods

[140,141]. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) [142], and ensemble EMD (EEMD) [143]

are widely used for flood prediction [144]. Nevertheless, EMD-based forecast models are

also subject to a number of drawbacks [145]. The literature includes numerous studies on

improving the performance of decomposition and prediction models in terms of additivity

and generalization ability [146].

3.8. Classification of ML Methods and Applications

The most popular ML modeling methods for flood prediction were identified in the

previous section, including ANFIS, MLP, WNN, EPS, DT, RF, CART, and ANN. Figure 3

presents the major ML methods used for flood prediction, and the number of

corresponding articles in the literature over the last decade. This figure was designed to

communicate to the readers which ML methods increased in popularity among

hydrologists for flood modeling within the past decade.

 Machine Learning Methods in
Literature
200
180
Number of articles

160 ANFIS
140
120 MLP
100 WNNs
80
EPS
60
40 DT & RF & CART
20 ANNs
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SVM & SVR

Year

Figure 3. Major ML methods used for flood prediction in the literature. Reference year:

2008 (source: Scopus).

Considering the ML methods for application to floods, it is apparent that ANNs,

SVMs, MLPs, DTs, ANFIS, WNNs, and EPSs are the most popular. These ML methods can

be categorized as single and hybrid methods. In addition to the fundamental hybrid ML

methods, i.e., ANFIS, WNNs, and basic EPSs, several different research strategies for

obtaining better prediction evolved [137]. The strategies involved developing hybrid ML

models using soft computing techniques, statistical methods, and physical models rather

than individual ML approaches, whereby the extra components complement each other

with respect to their drawbacks and shortcomings. The success of such hybrid approaches

motivated the research community to explore more advanced hybrid models. Figure 4

presents the progress of single vs. hybrid ML methods for flood prediction in the literature

over the past decade. The figure shows an apparent continuous increase and notable

progress in using novel hybrid methods. Through Figure 4, the taxonomy of our research

was justified, based on distinguishing hybrid and single ML prediction models.

 Machine Learning Methods in
Literature
700

600
Number of Articles

500

400

300 Hybrids
Singles
200

100

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year

Figure 4. The progress of single vs. hybrid ML methods for flood prediction in the

literature. Reference year: 2008 (source: Scopus).

Furthermore, the types of prediction are often studied with different lead-time

predictions due to the flood. Real-time, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal, annual,

short-term, and long-term are the terms most often used in the literature. Real-time

prediction is concerned with anywhere between few minutes and an hour preceding the

flood. Hourly predictions can be 1–3 h ahead of the flood forecasting lead time or, in some

cases, 18 h or 24 h. Daily predictions can be 1–6 days ahead of the forecast. Monthly

forecasts can be, for instance, up to three months. In hydrology, the definitions of short-

term and long-term in studying the different phenomena vary. Short-term predictions for

floods often refer to hourly, daily, and weekly predictions, and they are used as warning

systems. On the other hand, long-term predictions are mostly used for policy analysis

purposes. Furthermore, if the prediction leading time to flood is three days longer than the

confluence time, the prediction is considered to be long-term [37,58]. From this perspective,

in this study, we considered a lead time greater than a week as a long-term prediction. It
was observed that the characteristics of the ML methods used varied significantly

according to the period of prediction. Thus, dividing the survey on the basis of short-term

and long-term was essential.

Here, it is also worth emphasizing that, in this paper, the prediction lead-time was

classified as “short-term” or “long-term”. Although flash floods happen in a short period

of time with great destructive power, they can be predicted with either “short-term” or

“long-term” lead times to the actual flood. In fact, this paper is concerned with the lead

times instead of the duration or type of flood. If the lead-time prediction to a flash flood

was short-term, then it was studied as a short-term lead time. However, sometimes flash

floods can be predicted with long lead times. In other words, flash floods might be

predicted one month ahead. In this case, the prediction was considered as long-term.

Regardless of the type of flood, we only focused on the lead time.

In this study, the ML methods were reviewed using two classes—single methods and

hybrid methods. Figures 5 and 6 represent the taxonomy of the research.

Single methods

Short-term
Hybrid methods

ML for flood prediction

Single methods

Long-term

Hybrid methods

Figure 5. Taxonomy of the survey—ML methods for flood prediction.

 Start

n=1

Step 1
Qn

Step 4 Step 6
T1 AND T2 AND T3 Yes Yes

Long-term? Hybrid?

No

Acceptable number of
Step 2 No
n+1
results achieved? No
Step 5
No
Single?
Yes

Yes Step 7

Table 3: hybrid
Step 3 Refine the results & Table 2: Single Table 4: Single Table 5: hybrid
method, short-
add to database method, short-term method, long-term method, long-term
term

Figure 6. Taxonomy of the survey.

Step 1 involved running the queries one by one; step 2 involved checking the results

of the search, and initiating the next search; step 3 involved identifying the comparative

studies on ML models of prediction, refining the results and building the database; step 4

involved identifying whether it was a long-term or short-term prediction; steps 5 and 6

involved identifying if it was a single or hybrid method, constructing Table 1, and step 7

involved constructing the other Tables. The four tables provide the list of studies on

different prediction techniques, which entail the organized comprehensive surveys of the

literature.

4. Short-Term Flood Prediction with ML

Short-term lead-time flood predictions are considered important research challenges,

particularly in highly urbanized areas, for timely warnings to residences so to reduce

damage [146]. In addition, short-term predictions contribute highly to water recourse

 management. Even with the recent improvements in numerical weather prediction (NWP)

models, artificial intelligence (AI) methods, and ML, short-term prediction remains a

challenging task [147-152]. This section is divided into two subsections—single and hybrid

methods of ML—to individually investigate each group of methods.

4.1. Short-Term Flood Prediction Using Single ML Methods

To gain insight into the performance of ML methods, a comprehensive comparison

was required to investigate ML methods. Table 1 presents a summary of the major ML

methods, i.e., ANNs, MLP, nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs

(NARX), M5 model trees, DTs, CART, SVR, and RF, followed by a comprehensive

performance comparison of single ML methods in short-term flood prediction. A revision

and discussion of these methods follow so as to identify the most suitable methods

presented in the literature.

Table 1. Short-term predictions using single machine learning (ML) methods.

Flood Resource
Modeling Technique Reference Prediction Type Region
Variable

Streamflow and
ANN vs. statistical [1] Hourly USA
flash food

Water and surge

ANN vs. traditional [44] Hourly Japan
level

ANN vs. statistical [149] Flood Real-time UK

ANN vs. statistical [150] Extreme flow Hourly Greece

FFANN vs. ANN [151] Water level Hourly India

ANN vs. T–S [4] Flood Hourly India

Stage level and

ANN vs. AR [153] Hourly Brazil
streamflow

Flood frequency
MLP vs. Kohonen NN [154] Long-term China
analysis
 Peak flow of
BPANN [155] Daily Canada
flood

Monthly and
BPANN vs. DBPANN [156] Rainfall–runoff China
daily

BPANN [157] Flash flood Real-time Hawaii

BPANN [158] Runoff Daily India

ELM vs. SVM [159] Streamflow Daily China

BPANN vs. NARX [160,161] Urban flood Real-time Taiwan

FFANN vs. Functional

[162] River flows Real-time Ireland
ANN

Recurrent NN vs. Z–R Rainfall

[163] Real-time Taiwan
relation prediction

ANN vs. M5 model tree [164] Peak flow Hourly India

NBT vs. DT vs.

[165] Flash flood Real-time, hourly Austria
Multinomial regression

DTs vs. NBT vs. ADT vs.

[166] Flood Hourly/daily Iran
LMT, and REPT

River flow and

MLP vs. MLR [167,168] Daily Algeria
rainfall–runoff

MLP vs. MLR [98] River runoff Hourly Morocco

MLP vs. WT vs. MLR vs. River flood

[169] Daily Canada
ANN forecasting

ANN vs. MLP [170] River level Hourly Ireland

MLP vs. DT vs. CART vs. Flood during

[171] Rainfall–runoff China
CHAID typhoon

Rainfall extreme
SVM vs. ANN [120] Daily India
events

ANN vs. SVR [48] Flood Daily Canada

 RF vs. SVM [69] Rainfall Hourly Taiwan

Kim and Barros [148] modified an ANN model to improve flood forecasting short-

term lead time through consideration of atmospheric conditions. They used satellite data

from the ISCCP-B3 dataset [172]. This dataset includes hourly rainfall from 160 rain gauges

within the region. The ANN was reported to be considerably more accurate than the

statistical models. In another similar work, Reference [44] developed an ANN forecast

model for hourly lead time. In their study, various datasets were used, consisting of

meteorological and hydrodynamic parameters of three typhoons. Testing of the ANN

forecast models showed promising results for 5-h lead time. In another attempt, Danso-

Amoako [1] provided a rapid system for predicting floods with an ANN. They provided a

reliable forecasting tool for rapidly assessing floods. An R2 value of 0.70 for the ANN

model proved that the tool was suitable for predicting flood variables with a high

generalization ability. The results of [149] provides similar conclusions. Furthermore,

Panda, Pramanik, and Bala [151] compared the accuracy of ANN with FFANN, and the

results were benchmarked with the physical model of MIKE 11 for short-term water level

prediction. This dataset includes the hourly discharge and water level between 2006 and

2009. The data of the year 2006 was used for testing root-mean-square error (RMSE). The

results indicated that the FFANN performed faster and relatively more accurately than the

ANN model. Here, it is worth mentioning that the overall results indicated that the neural

networks were superior compared to the one-dimensional model MIKE 11. Nevertheless,

there were great advancements reported in the implementation of two-dimensional MIKE

11 [8].

Kourgialas, Dokou, and Karatzas [150] created a modeling system for the prediction

of extreme flow based on ANNs 3 h, 12 h, and 19 h ahead of the flood. They analyzed five

years of hourly data to investigate the ANN effectiveness in modeling extreme flood

events. The results indicated it to be highly effective compared to conventional

hydrological models. Lohani, Goel, and Bhatia [4] improved the real-time forecasting of

rainfall–runoff of foods, and the results were compared to the T–S fuzzy model and the
subtractive-clustering-based T–S (TSC-T–S) fuzzy model. They, however, concluded that

the fuzzy model provided more accurate predictions with longer lead time. The hourly

rainfall data from 1989 to 1995 of a gauge site, in addition to the rainfall during a monsoon,

was used. Pereira Filho and dos Santos [153] compared the AR model with an ANN in

simulating forecast stage level and streamflow. The dataset was created from independent

flood events, radar-derived rainfall, and streamflow rain gauges available between 1991

and 1995. The AR and ANN were employed to model short-term flood in an urban area

utilizing streamflow and weather data. They showed that the ANN performed better in its

verification and it was proposed as a better alternative to the AR model.

Ahmad and Simonovic [155] used a BPNN for predicting peak flow utilizing causal

meteorological parameters. This dataset included daily discharge data for 1958–1997 from

gauging stations. BPNN proved to be a fast and accurate approach with the ability of

generalization for application to other locations with similar rivers. Furthermore, to

improve the simulation of daily streamflow using BPNN, Reference [156] used division-

based backpropagation to obtain satisfying results. The raw data of local evaporation and

rainfall gauges of six years were used for the short-term flood prediction of a streamflow

time series. The dataset of one decade from 1988 was used for training and the dataset of

five subsequent years was used for testing. The BPNN model provided promising results;

however, it lacked efficiency in using raw data for the time-series prediction of streamflow.

In addition, Reference [157] showed the application of BPNN for assessing flash floods

using measured data. This dataset included 5-min-frequency water quality data and 15-

min-frequency rainfall data of 20 years from two rain gauge stations. Their experiments

introduced ANN models as simple ML methods to apply, while simultaneously requiring

expert knowledge by the user. In addition, their ANN prediction model showed great

ability to deal with a noisy dataset. Ghose [158] predicted the daily runoff using a BPNN

prediction model. The data of daily water level of two years from 2013–2015 were used.

The accurate BPNN model was reported with an efficiency of 96.4% and an R2 of 0.94 for

flood prediction.
 Pan, Cheng, and Cai [159] compared the performances of ELM and SVM for short-

term streamflow prediction. Both methods demonstrated a similar level of accuracy.

However, ELM was suggested as a faster method for parameter selection and learning

loops. Reference [154] also conducted a comparison between fuzzy c-means, ANN, and

MLP using a common dataset of sites to investigate ML method efficiency and accuracy.

The MLP and ANN methods were proposed as the best methods. Chang, Chen, Lu, Huang,

and Chang [160] and Reference [161] modeled multi-step urban flood forecasts using

BPNN and a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous input (NARX) for hourly

forecasts. The results demonstrated that NARX worked better in short-term lead-time

prediction compared to BPNN. The NARX network produced an average R2 value of 0.7.

This study suggested that the NARX model was effective in urban flood prediction.

Furthermore, Valipour et al. [24] showed how the accuracy of ANN models could be

increased through integration with autoregressive (AR) models.

Bruen and Yang [162] modeled real-time rainfall–runoff forecasting for different lead

times using FFNN, ARMA, and functional networks. Here, functional networks [173] were

compared with an FFNN model. The models were tested using a storm time-series dataset.

The result was that functional networks allowed quicker training in the prediction of

rainfall–runoff processes with different lead times. The models were able to predict floods

with short lead times. Reference [164] estimated water level–discharge using M5 trees and

ANN. This dataset was collected from the period of 1990 to 1998, and the inputs were

supplied by computing the average mutual information. The ANN and M5 model tree

performed similar in terms of accuracy. Reference [166] tested four DT models, i.e.,

alternating decision trees (ADTs), reduced-error pruning trees (REPTs), logistic model

trees (LMTs), and NBTs, using a dataset of 200 floods. The ADT model was reported to

perform better for flash-flood prediction for a speedy determination of flood-susceptible

areas. In other research, Reference [165] compared the performance of an NBT and DT

prediction model, using geomorphological disposition parameters. Both models and their

hybrids were compared in terms of prediction accuracy in a catchment. The advanced DTs

were found to be promising for flood assessment in prone areas. They concluded that an
independent dataset and benchmarking of other ML methods were required for judgment

of the accuracy and efficiency of the method. Reference [171] worked on a dataset

including more than 100 tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting a watershed for the hourly

prediction of precipitation. The performances of MLP, CART, CHAID, exhaustive CHAID,

MLR, and CLIM were compared. The evaluation results showed that MLP and DTs

provided better prediction. Reference [163] applied a dynamic ANN, as well as a Z–R

relation approach for constructing a one-hour-ahead prediction model. This dataset

included three-dimensional radar data of typhoon events and rain gauges from 1990 to

2004, including various typhoons. The results indicated that the ANN performed better.

Aichouri, Hani, Bougherira, Djabri, Chaffai, and Lallahem [167] implemented an MLP

model for flood prediction, and compared the results with the traditional MLR model. The

rainfall–runoff daily data from 1986 to 2003 were used for model building. The results and

comparative study indicated that the MLP approach performed with better yield for river

rainfall–runoff. In a similar research, Reference [98] modeled and predicted the river

rainfall–runoff relationship through training six years of collected daily rainfall data using

MLP and MLR (1990 to 1995). Furthermore, the data of 1996 were used for testing to select

the best performing network model. The R2 values for the ANN and MLR models were

0.888 and 0.917, respectively, showing that the MLP approach gave a much better

prediction than MLR. Reference [169] proposed a number of data-based flood predictions

for daily stream flows models using MLP, WT, MLR, ARIMA, and ANN. This dataset

included two time series of streamflow and a meteorological dataset including records

from 1970 to 2001. The results showed that MLP, WT, and ANN performed generally

better. However, the proposed WT prediction model was evaluated to be not as accurate

as ANN and MLP for a one-week lead time. Reference [170] designed optimal models of

ANN and MLP for the prediction of river level. This study indicated that an optimization

tool for the ANN network can highly improve prediction quality. The candidate inputs

included river levels and mean sea-level pressure (SLP) for the period of 2001–2002. The

MLP was identified as the most accurate model for short-term river flood prediction.
 Nayak and Ghosh [120] used SVM and ANN to predict hourly rainfall–runoff using

weather patterns. A model of SVM classifier for rainfall prediction was used and the results

were compared to ANN and another advanced statistical technique. The SVM model

appeared to predict extreme floods better than the ANN. Furthermore, the SVM model

proved to function better in terms of uncertainty. Gizaw and Gan [48] developed SVR and

ANN models for creating RFFA to estimate regional flood quantiles and to assess climate

change impact. This dataset included daily precipitation data obtained from gauges from

1950 to 2016. RMSE and R2 were used for the evaluation of the models. The SVR model

estimated regional flood more accurately than the ANN model. SVR was reported to be a

suitable choice for predicting future flood under the uncertainty of climate change

scenarios [118]. In a similar attempt, Reference [69] provided effective real-time flood

prediction using a rainfall dataset measured by radar. Two models of RF and SVM were

developed and their prediction performances were compared. Their performance

comparison revealed the effectiveness of SVM in real-time flood forecasting.

Table 2 represents a comparative analysis of single ML models for the prediction of

short-term floods, considering the complexity of the algorithm, ease of use, running speed,

accuracy, and input dataset. This table was created based on the revisions that were made

on the articles of Table 1 and also the accuracy analysis of Figure 3, where the values of R2

and RMSE of the single ML methods were considered. The quality of ML model prediction,

in terms of speed, complexity, accuracy, and ease of use, was continuously improved

through using ensembles of ML methods, hybridization of ML methods, optimization

algorithms, and/or soft computing techniques. This trend of improvement is discussed in

detail in the discussion.

Table 2. Comparative analysis of single ML models for the prediction of short-term

floods.

Modeling Complexity Ease of Input

Speed Accuracy
Technique of Algorithm Use Dataset

ANN High Low Fair Fair Historical

 BPANN Fairly high Low Fairly high Fairly high Historical

MLP Fairly high Fair High Fairly high Historical

Fairly
ELM Fair Fairly high Fair Historical
high

CART Fair Fair Fair Fairly high Historical

SVM Fairly high Low Low Fair Historical

Fairly
ANFIS Fair Fair Fairly high Historical
high

4.2. Short-Term Flood Prediction Using Hybrid ML Methods

To improve the quality of prediction, in terms of accuracy, generalization,

uncertainty, longer lead time, speed, and computation costs, there is an ever increasing

trend in building hybrid ML methods. These hybrid methods are numerous, including

more popular ones, such as ANFIS and WNN, and further novel algorithms, e.g., SVM–

FR, HEC–HMS–ANN, SAS–MP, SOM–R-NARX, wavelet-based NARX, WBANN, WNN–

BB, RNN–SVR, RSVRCPSO, MLR–ANN, FFRM–ANN, and EPSs. Table 3 presents these

methods; a revision of the methods and applications follows along with a discussion on

the ML methods.

Table 3. Short-term flood prediction using hybrid ML methods.

Flood resource Prediction

Modeling Technique Reference Region
Variable Type

ANFIS vs. ANN [174] Flash floods Real-time Spain

ANFIS vs. ANN [175,176] Water level Hourly Taiwan

ANFIS vs. ANN [46] Watershed rainfall Hourly Taiwan

ANFIS vs. ANN [67] Flood quantiles Real-time Canada

 ANN vs. ANFIS [177] Daily flow Daily Iran

CART vs. ANFIS vs. Sediment

[134] Daily Iran
MLP vs. SVM transport

MLP vs. GRNNM vs.

[96] Flood prediction Daily Korea
NNM

SVM-FR vs. DT [178] Rainfall–runoff Real-time Malaysia

HEC–HMS–ANN vs.
[179] Rainfall–runoff Hourly Taiwan
HEC–HMS-SVR

Flash flood and

SAS–MP vs. W-SAS–MP [180] Daily Turkey
streamflow

SOM–R-NARX vs. R-
[181] Regional flood Hourly Taiwan
NARX

Wavelet-based NARX vs. Streamflow

[182] Daily India
ANN, vs. WANN forecasting

WBANN vs. WANN vs.

[105] Flood Hourly India
ANN vs. BANN

ANN–hydrodynamic Flood prediction:

[183] Hourly UK
model tidal surge

Flash flood:
RNN–SVR, RSVRCPSO [184] Hourly Taiwan
rainfall forecasting

AME and SSNN vs. Rainfall

[185] Hourly Taiwan
ANN forecasting

Hybrid of FFNN with Flood forecasting:

[186] Daily India
linear model daily flows

FFNN vs. FBNN vs.

[187] Flash floods Hourly Taiwan
FFRM–ANN

ANN–NLPM vs. ANN [188] Rainfall–runoff Daily China

 EPS of MLP vs. SVM vs. Runoff
[189] Real-time Germany
RF simulations

EPS of ANNs [190] Flood Daily Canada

Jimeno-Sáez, et al. [174] modeled flash floods using ANN and ANFIS, applying a

dataset collected from 14 different streamflow gauge stations. RMSE and R2 were used as

evaluation criteria. The results showed that ANFIS demonstrated a considerably superior

ability to estimate real-time flash floods compared to ANN. Chang and Chang [175]

constructed an accurate water level forecasting system based on ANFIS for 1–3 h ahead of

the flood. The ANFIS successfully provided accurate water level prediction. The hourly

water level of five gauges from 1971 to 2001 was used. They concluded that the ANFIS

model could efficiently deal with a big dataset [176] through fast learning and reliable

prediction. A further comparison showed that the ANFIS hybrid model tuned by SVR

provided superior prediction accuracy and good cost-effective computation for nonlinear

and real-time flood prediction. In addition, the model with human interaction could

provide better performance. In another similar research, Reference [46] developed an

ANFIS model based on a precipitation dataset, which provided reliable hourly predictions

with an R2 more than 0.85. The results were reported as highly satisfactory for the typhoon

season. Reference [67] used ANFIS for ungauged sites of 151 catchments; the results were

evaluated and compared to the ANN, NLR, NLR-R modes using a Jackknife procedure.

The evaluation showed that the ANFIS model provided higher generalization capability

compared to the NLR and ANN models. The ANFIS model implemented an efficient

mechanism for forecasting the flood region, and providing insight from the data, leading

to prediction. Rezaeianzadeh (2014) [177] presented a number of forecasting systems for

daily flow prediction using ANN, ANFIS, MLR, and MNLR. Furthermore, the

performances of the models were calculated with RMSE and R2. This dataset included

precipitation data from various meteorological stations. Furthermore, the evaluation

showed that MNLR models with lower RMSE values had a better performance than the

ANFIS, MLR, and ANN models. Furthermore, MNLR was suggested as a low-cost and
efficient model for the daily prediction of flow. In a similar attempt, Choubin, Darabi et al.

(2018) [133] evaluated the accuracy of ANFIS, considering three common ML modeling

tools—CART, SVM, and MLP. The evaluation suggested that the CART model performed

best. Therefore, CART was strongly suggested as a reliable prediction tool for hydro-

meteorological datasets. Kim and Singh [96] developed three models, namely generalized

regression ANN (GRNNM), Kohonen self-organizing feature maps ANN (KSOFM–

NNM), and MLP, for flood prediction. Furthermore, the prediction performance was

evaluated, showing that KSOFM–NNM performed accurately compared to MLP and

GRNNM in forecasting flood discharge. The hybrid models, overall, were shown to

overcome the difficulties when using single ANN models. Reference [178] proposed an

advanced ensemble model through combining FR and SVM to build spatial modeling in

flood prediction. The results were compared with DT. This dataset included an inventory

map of flood prediction in various locations. To build the model, up to 100 flood locations

were used for training and validation. The evaluation results showed a high success rate

for the ensemble model. The results proved the efficiency, accuracy, and speed of the

model in the susceptibility assessment of floods.

Young, Liu, and Wu [179] developed a hybrid physical model through integrating the

HEC–HMS model with SVM and ANN for accurate rainfall–runoff modeling during a

typhoon. The hybrid models of HEC–HMS–SVR and HEC–HMS–ANN had acceptable

capability for hourly prediction. However, the SVR model had much better generalization

and accuracy ability in runoff discharge predictions. It was concluded that the predictions

of HEC–HMS were improved through ML hybridization. Reference [180] proposed SAS–

MP, which is a hybrid of wavelet and season multilayer perceptron for daily rainfall

prediction. The season algorithm is a novel decomposition technique used to improve data

quality. The resulting hybrid model was referred to as the W-SAS–MP model. This dataset

included the daily rainfall data of three decades since 1974. The W-SAS–MP model was

reported as highly efficient for enhancing daily rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time.

Chang, Shen, and Chang [181] developed a hybrid ANN model for real-time

forecasting of regional floods in an urban area. The advanced hybrid model of SOM–R-
NARX was an integration of the NARX network with SOM. Their big dataset included 55

rainfall events of daily rainfall. The evaluation suggested that SOM–R-NARX was accurate

with small values of RMSE and high R2. Furthermore, compared to the cluster-based

hybrid inundation model (CHIM), it provided hourly prediction accuracy. Reference [182]

proposed a model of wavelet-based NARX (WNARX) for the daily forecasting of rainfalls

on a dataset of gauge-based rainfall data for the period from 2000 to 2010. The prediction

performance was further benchmarked with ANN, WANN, ARMAX, and NARX models,

whereby WNARX was reported as superior.

Partal [110] developed a model for the daily prediction of precipitation with ANN

and WNN models. In their case, WNN showed significantly better results with an average

value of 0.79 at various stations. In Reference [60], they compared WNN with ANFIS for

daily rainfall. The results showed that the hybrid algorithm of WNN performed better with

an R2 equal to 0.9 for daily lead time. Reference [105] proposed a hybrid model of wavelet,

bootstrap technique, and ANN, which they called WBANN. It improved the accuracy and

reliability of the ANN model short-term flood prediction. The performance of WBANN

was compared with bootstrap-based ANNs (BANNs) and WNN. The wavelet

decomposition significantly improved the ANN models. In addition, the bootstrap

resampling produced consistent results. French, Mawdsley, Fujiyama, and Achuthan [183]

proposed a novel hybrid model of ANN and a hydrodynamic model for the accurate short-

term prediction of extreme storm surge water. The ANN–hydrodynamic model generated

realistic flood extents and a great improvement in model accuracy. Reference [184]

proposed a hybrid forecasting technique called RSVRCPSO to accurately estimate the

rainfall. RSVRCPSO is an integration of RNN, SVR, and a chaotic particle swarm

optimization algorithm (CPSO). This dataset was obtained from three rain gauges from the

period of 1985 to August 1997, which included the data of nine typhoon events. The results

suggested that the proposed model yielded better performance for rainfall prediction. The

RSVRCPSO model, in comparison with SVRCPSO, resulted in less RMSE learning and

testing, which gave way to superiority in prediction.

 Pan et al. [185] proposed a monsoon rainfall enhancement (AME) based on ANNs,

which was a hybrid form of linear regression and a state-space neural network (SSNN).

The performance of the proposed model was benchmarked against the hybrid method of

MLR–ANN. This dataset included the total rain, wind, and humidity measures from 1989–

2008 based on 371 rain gauge stations of six typhoons. The results indicated that the

method was highly robust with a better prediction accuracy in terms of R2, peak discharge,

and total volume. Rajurkar et al. [186] modeled rainfall–runoff by integrating ANN and a

simplified linear model. Furthermore, this dataset included the daily measurements of

rainfall in the period of 1963–1990. The hybrid model was found to be better for providing

a theoretical forecasting representation of floods with R2 equal to 0.728.

Hsu et al. [187] proposed a hybrid model from the integration of a flash-flood routing

model (FFRM) and ANN, called the FFRM–ANN model, to predict hourly river stages.

The ANN algorithms used in this study were the FFNN and FBNN. Data from eight

typhoon events between 2004 and 2005 of rainfall and river stage pairs were selected for

model training. The results indicated that the hybrid model of FFRM–ANN provided an

efficient FFRM for accurate flood forecasting. The comparison of the hybrid method

against each algorithm used in the study proved the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Reference [188] developed a hybrid prediction model by integrating ANN and a nonlinear

perturbation model (NLPM), defined as NLPM–ANN, to improve the efficiency and

accuracy of rainfall–runoff prediction. The model of NLPM–ANN was benchmarked

against two models of nonlinear perturbation model (LPM), and NLPM integrated with

antecedent precipitation index (API) i.e., NLPM–API, on a dataset of daily rainfall–runoff

in the period of 1973–1999. They reported that the NLPM–ANN worked better than the

models of LPM and NLPM–API. The results of the case studies of various watersheds

proved the model accuracy.

Through an EPS model, Reference [189] aimed at limiting the range of the

uncertainties in runoff simulations and flood prediction. The classifier ensembles included

MLP, SVM, and RF. Note that the ensemble of MLP was a novel approach in flood

prediction. The proposed EPS presented a number of integrated models and simulation
runs. The model validation was successfully performed using a dataset from various rain

gauges of precipitation data during the 2013–2014 storm season. Using the EPS model

decreased uncertainty in forecasting, which resulted in the prediction system being

evaluated as reliable and robust in estimating flood duration and destructive power. In

another case, Reference [190] developed an EPS model of six ANNs for daily streamflow

prediction based on daily high-flow data from the storm season of 2013–2014. The

proposed model had a fast development time, which also provided probabilistic forecasts

to deal with uncertainties in prediction. The ensemble prediction system was reported as

highly useful and robust.

4.3. Comparative Performance Analysis

To evaluate a reliable prediction, the accuracy, reliability, robustness, consistency,

generalization, and timeliness are suggested as the basic criteria (Singh 1989). The

timeliness is one of the most important criteria, and it is only achieved through using

robust yet simple models. Furthermore, the performance of the prediction models is often

evaluated through root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean error (ME), mean squared error

(MSE), Nash coefficients (E), and R2, also known as the correlation coefficient (CC). In this

survey, the values of R2 and RMSE were considered for performance evaluation. CC (Eq.1)

and RMSE (Eq.2) can be defined as follow:

∑𝑁
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 −𝑥̄ )(𝑦𝑖 −𝑦̄ )
𝐶𝐶 = Eq.1
√[∑𝑁 2 𝑁 2
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 −𝑥̄ ) ][∑𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖 −𝑦̄ ) ]

where xi and yi are the observed and predicted values and the i-th residue; x and y are

their means, respectively.

2
∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑋𝑜𝑏𝑠,𝑖 −𝑋𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖 )
𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ Eq.2
𝑛
where Xobs defines observed variables and Xmodel prediction values for year i, where

generally R2 > 0.8 is considered as an acceptable prediction. However, a lower value for

RMSE suggests a better prediction. Overall, forecasting models of floods are reported as

accurate if RMSE values are close to 0, and R2 values are close to 1. The specific intended

purpose, computational cost, and dataset would be our major consideration criteria.

Furthermore, the generalization ability, speed and cost of implementation and operation,

ease of use, low-cost maintenance, robustness, and accuracy of the simulation are other

important criteria for evaluation of the methods.

Here, it is worth mentioning that the value of RMSE can be different across various

studies. In addition, the values of RMSE in some studies were calculated for various sites.

To present a fair evaluation of RMSE, we made sure that the unit of RMSE was the same,

and, for the multiple RMSEs, the average was calculated. We also double-checked for any

possible error. The comparative performance analysis of single and hybrid ML methods

for short-term flood prediction using R2 and RMSE are presented in Figures 7 and 8

respectively.
 Comparative performance analysis of single methods for short-term flood
prediction
1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

RMSE R2

Figure 7. Comparative performance analysis of single methods of ML for short-term flood

prediction using R2 and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

 Comparative performance analysis of hybrid methods for short-term
flood prediction

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
TSC-T–S (Lohani, Goel et al. …

SOM–R-NARX (Chang, Shen…

WANN (Tiwari and…

KSOFM-NNM (Kim and…

ANFIS (Shu and Ouarda…

SOM-R (Chang, Shen et al.…

R-NARX (Chang, Shen et al.…

Hybrid of FFNN (Rajurkar,…

FFRM–ANN (Hsu, Lin et al.…

MLP-NNM (Kim and Singh…

GRNNM (Kim and Singh…

WNARX (Nanda, Sahoo et…

ARMAX (Nanda, Sahoo et…
ANFIS (Jimeno-Sáez,…
W-MLP (Altunkaynak and…

EPS of MLP (Doycheva,…

ANFIS (Chang and Chang…

BANN (Tiwari and…

WANN (Nanda, Sahoo et al.…

HEC-HMS-ANN (Young, Liu…

NLPM-ANN (Pang, Guo et…

ANN-hydrodynamic…

EPS of ANN (Fleming,…

W-SAS-MP (Altunkaynak…

WBANN (Tiwari and…

ANFIS (Chang, Chiang et al.…

ANFIS (Choubin, Darabi et…

WNN-BB (Kasiviswanathan,…
SAS-MLP (Altunkaynak and…

HEC-HMS-SVR (Young, Liu…

ANN-BB (Kasiviswanathan,…
RSVRCPSO (Hong 2008)
ANFIS (Kisi, Nia et al. 2012)

ANFIS (Rezaeianzadeh, 2014)

DBPANN (Ju, Yu et al. 2009)

SSNN (Pan, Yang et al. 2013) RMSE R2

Figure 8. Comparative performance analysis of hybrid methods of ML for short-term

flood prediction, using R2 and RMSE.

Generally, ANNs are suggested as promising means for short-term prediction.

Despite performing weakly in a few early studies, especially in the generalization aspect,

better methodologies for higher-performance ANNs in handling big datasets yielded

better results. In this context, the BPNN and functional networks are suggested as being

difficult to be implemented by the user. However, the models were shown to be reasonably

accurate, efficient, and fast with the ability to deal with noisy datasets. However, the

NARX network performed better compared to BPNN. Nevertheless, accuracy could be

enhanced through integration with autoregressive models. MLP and DTs provide equally

acceptable prediction yields with ANNs. Among DTs, the ADT model provided the fastest

and most accurate prediction capability in determining floods. Although not as popular as

ANNs, the rotation forest (RF) and M5 model tree (MT) were reported as efficient and

robust. References e.g. [69,136] proposed RF-based models that were as effective as ANNs

and suitable for long lead times.

 Along with ANNs, the SVM was also seen as a relatively effective ML tool for rainfall–

runoff modeling and classification with better generalization ability and performance. In

many cases, SVM performed even better, especially for very short lead times [122,125]. In

particular, SVM-based models provided promising performances for hourly prediction.

Nevertheless, the prediction ability decreased for longer lead times. This issue was

addressed using the LS-SVM model, which also showed better generalization ability [127].

Generally, SVM was reported to be a suitable choice to evaluate the uncertainty in

predicting hazardous flood quantiles, which revealed the effectiveness of SVM in real-time

flood forecasting.

Overall, the reviewed single prediction models could provide relatively accurate

short-term forecasts. However, for predictions longer than 2 h, hybrid models such as

ANFIS, and WNN performed better. The performance comparisons of the ANFIS model

with BPNN and AR models, with average correlation coefficients higher than 0.80, showed

the superiority of ANFIS in a wide range of short-term flood prediction applications, e.g.,

water level, rainfall–runoff, and streamflow (for up to 24 h). ANFIS demonstrated a

considerably superior ability for estimating real-time flash flood estimation compared to

most ANN-based models, particularly 1–3 h ahead of flood, providing high accuracy and

reliability. More advanced ANFIS hybrid models tuned by SVR provided even better

prediction accuracy and good cost-effective computation for nonlinear and real-time flood

prediction. Furthermore, ANFIS models presented higher generalization ability. However,

by increasing the prediction lead time, R2 decreased. For daily flow, MNLR was suggested

with a superior performance over the ANN, ANFIS, and MLR models. In cases where

hydro-meteorological data are readily available, CART was superior to ANFIS, SVM, and

MLP; T–S fuzzy was also a good choice. On the other hand, WNN performed significantly

better than MLP, ANNs, and ANFIS for daily predictions. For accurate longer lead-time

predictions, decomposition techniques such as DWT, autoregression, and the season

algorithm provided great advantages.

Overall, the novel hybrid models designed using ML, soft computing, and statistical

methods, e.g., KSOFM–NNM, SOM–R-NARX, WNARX, HEC–HMS–SVR, HEC–HMS–

ANN, W-SAS–MP, WBANN, RSVRCPSO, and the ANN–hydrodynamic model, were

shown to overcome the drawbacks of most ML methods by enhancing the prediction

accuracy and lead time, leading to more realistic flood models with even better

susceptibility assessment. On the other hand, novel ensemble methods not only improved

the accuracy robustness of predictions, but also contributed to limiting the range of

uncertainties in models. Among the EPS methods, the ensembles of ANN, MLP, SVM, and

RF showed promising results.

5. Long-Term Flood Prediction with ML

Long-term flood prediction is of significant importance for increasing knowledge and

water resource management potential over longer periods of time, from weekly to monthly

and annual predictions [191]. In the past decades, many notable ML methods, such as

ANN [74], ANFIS [68,192], SVM [193], SVR [193], WNN [51], and bootstrap–ANN [51],

were used for long lead-time predictions with promising results. Recently, in a number of

studies (e.g., References [55,194-198]), the performances of various ML methods for long

lead-time flood predictions were compared. However, it is still not clear which ML method

performs best in long-term flood prediction. In this section, Tables 4 and 5 represent a

summary of these investigations, and we review the performance of the ML models in

dealing with long-term predictions.

5.1. Long-Term Flood Prediction Using Single ML Methods

This section presents a comprehensive comparison on ML methods. Table 4 presents

a summary of the major single ML methods used in long-term flood prediction, i.e., MLP,

ANNs, SVM, and RT, followed by a comprehensive performance comparison. A revision

and discussion of these methods follow, identifying the most suitable methods presented

in the literature.
 Table 4. Long-term flood prediction using single ML methods.

Modeling Flood Resource Prediction

Reference Region
Technique Variable Type

ANNs [197] Water levels Seasonal Sudan

ANNs [87] Precipitation Monthly Australia

BPNNs [199] Heavy rainfall Seasonal India

BPNNs vs.
[200] Reservoir levels Monthly Turkey
BFGSNN

BPNN vs. MLP [201] Discharge Monthly Iran

ANNs vs. HBI [202] Stream Weekly Canada

SVM vs. ANN [203] Streamflow Monthly China

RT [204] Floodplain forests Annually Australia

For seasonal flood forecasting, Elsafi [197] proposed numerous ANNs and compared

the results. The water level data from different stations from 1970–1985 were selected for

training, and the data from 1986–1987 were used for verification. The ANNs worked well,

especially where the dataset was not complete, providing a viable choice for accurate

prediction. ANNs provided the possibility of reducing the analytical costs through

reducing the data analysis time that used to face in e.g., [198]. Similarly, reference [87] used

ANNs to develop a prediction model for precipitation. A historical dataset of 1900–2001 of

different stations was considered and the ANN model was applied to various stations to

evaluate prediction performance. The authors summarized that the ANN models offered

great forecasting skills for predicting long-term evapotranspiration and precipitation.

Reference [202] used an ANN model for stream assessment for long-term floods. This

dataset was collected from more than 100 sites of numerous flood streams. They concluded

that the ANN model, compared to Hilsenhoff’s biotic index (HBI), significantly improved

the prediction ability using geomorphic data. However, the ANN had generalization

problems. Nevertheless, the ANN in this case proved useful to water managers.
 Singh [199] used a number of BPNNs to build prediction models of heavy rains and

floods. This dataset included the period of 1871–2010 on a monthly time scale. The results

indicated that the BPNN models were fast and robust with simple networks, which made

them great for forecasting nonlinear floods. Reference [200] aimed to better analyze

nonlinear floods through modeling with BPNN and local linear regression (LLR)-based

models for long-term flood forecasting. This dataset included almost two decades of

rainfall, outflow, inflows, evaporation, and water level since 1988. Their evaluation

concluded that LLR showed better prediction than the Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno

neural network (BFGSNN) model in terms of performance and accuracy with bigger

values of R2 and lower values of RMSE. However, BPNN outperformed the other methods

with relatively good results. Among the ANN variations, [151] proposed a BPNN model

as the most reliable ANN for long-term flood prediction. Reference [201] also compared

the performances of ANNs with BPNN and MLP in the long-term prediction of flood

discharge. Promising results were obtained when using MLP. However, generalization

remained an issue.

Lin, Cheng, and Chau [203] applied an SVM model for estimating streamflow and

reservoir inflow for a long lead time. To benchmark, they used ANNs and ARMA. The

prediction models were built using monthly river flow discharges from the period of 1974–

1998 for training, and 1999–2003 for testing. Through a comparison of model performance,

SVM was demonstrated as a potential candidate for the prediction of long-term discharges,

outshining the ANN. In a similar approach, Reference [205] proposed an SVM-based

model for estimating soil moisture using remote-sensing data, and the results were

compared to predictive models based on BPNN and MLR. Training was performed on the

data of the period of 1998 to 2002, and testing used data from 2003 to 2005. The SVM model

was shown to be more accurate and easier to build compared to BPNN and MLR.

Reference [204], employed RT to model forest flood. Data from 2009–2012 at 50 sites were

used for model building. The prediction of annual forest floods was reported through a

combination of quantitative ground surveys, satellite imagery, hybrid machine learning

tools, and future validation.

 Table 5 presents a comparative analysis of single ML models for the prediction of

long-term floods considering the complexity of algorithm, ease of use, running speed,

accuracy, and input dataset. This table was created based on revisions that were made on

articles of Table 4, as well as the accuracy analysis in Figure 9, where values of R2 and

RMSE for the single ML methods were considered. The quality of the ML model

prediction, in terms of speed, complexity, accuracy, and ease of use, improved

continuously through the use of ensembles of ML methods, hybridization of ML methods,

optimization algorithms, and/or soft computing techniques. This trend of improvement is

discussed in detail in the discussion.

Table 5. Comparative analysis of single ML models for the prediction of long-term

floods.

Modeling Complexity Input

Ease of Use Speed Accuracy
Technique of Algorithm Dataset

ANN Fairly high Low Fair High Historical

BPNN Fairly high Low Fairly high Fairly high Historical

MLP high Fair High Fairly high Historical

SVR Fairly high Low Low High Historical

RT Fair Fair Fair Fairly high Historical

SVM Fairly high Low Low High Historical

M5 tree Fair Low Fair Fair Historical

5.2. Long-Term Flood Prediction Using Hybrid ML Methods

A critical review on the long-term flood prediction using hybrid methods is presented

in Table 6. Valipour, Banihabib, and Behbahani [26] used a hybrid method of

autoregressive ANN integrated with sigmoid and radial activity functions. The proposed

hybrid method outperformed the conventional statistical methods of ARMA and ARIMA

with lower values of RMSE. They reported that ARIMA was suitable for the prediction of

monthly and annual inflow, while the dynamic autoregressive ANN model with a sigmoid
activity function could be used for even longer lead time. This dataset included monthly

discharge from the period of 1960 to 2007.

Table 6. Long-term flood prediction using hybrid methods.

Flood Resource Prediction

Modeling Technique Reference Region
Variable Type

Autoregressive ANN vs. ARMA Monthly and

[26] River inflow Iran
vs. ARIMA yearly

Streamflow
Hybrid WNN vs. M5 model tree [206] Monthly Australia
water level

WNN vs. ANN [207,208] Rainfall–runoff Monthly Italy

Weekly and
WNN-BB vs. WNN vs. ANN [50] Streamflow Canada
few days

WNN vs. ANN [25] Urban water Monthly Canada

WNN vs. ANN [209] Peak flows Seasonal India

WNN vs. ANN [210] Rainfall Monthly India

WARM vs. AR [211] Rainfall Yearly Thailand

ANFIS vs. ANNs [212] Rainfall Seasonal Australia

ANFIS vs. ARMA vs. ANNs vs.

[213] Discharge Monthly China
SVM

ANFIS, ANNs vs. SVM vs. LLR [214] Streamflow Short-term Turkey

Flood
NLPM–ANN [215] Yearly China
forecasting

M-EMDSVM vs. ANN vs. SVM [216] Streamflow Monthly China

SVR–DWT–EMD [217] Streamflow Monthly China

Surrogate modeling–ML vs.

ANN–Kriging model vs. ANN– [218] Rainfall–runoff Yearly USA

PCA

EPS of ANNs: K-NN vs. MLP vs.

[219] Streamflow Seasonal Canada
MLP–PLC vs. ANNE

EEMD–ANN vs. SVM vs. ANFIS [220] Runoff forecast Monthly China
 WNN vs. ANN vs. WLGP [51] Streamflow Monthly Iran

Adamowski [25] developed models based on ANN and WNN, and compared their

prediction performances with statistical methods. WNN was proposed as the most

accurate prediction model, as previously confirmed by Cannas et al. (2005) [207] for

monthly rainfall–runoff forecasting, and also for further engineering application [208]. In

a similar work, Reference [209] compared the performances of ANN and WNN for the

prediction of peak flows. They also reported WNN as most reliable for simulating extreme

event streams, whereby decomposition improved the results considerably. Higher levels

of wavelet decomposition further improved the testing results. The statistical performance

evaluation of RMSE showed considerable improvement in the testing results. Venkata

Ramana [210] also combined the wavelet technique with ANN for long-term flood

prediction. They considered 74 years of data for the period of 1901 to 1975. A dataset of 44

years was used for calibration, and the remainder was used for validation of the model.

Their results showed a relatively lower performance for ANNs compared WNN models

in modeling rainfall–runoffs. Cannas et al. [207] proposed WNN for monthly rainfall–

runoff prediction, which showed significant improvement over ANNs. In a similar

attempt, Kasiviswanathan, He, Sudheer, and Tay [50] used WNN and WNN–BB, which is

an ensemble of WNN utilizing the block bootstrap (BB) sampling technique, to identify a

robust modeling approach among ANN and WNN, by assessing accuracy and precision.

This dataset included measurements from 1912 to 2013 at several flow gauge stations. The

results suggested WNN–BB as a robust model for long-term streamflow prediction for

longer lead times of up to one year. Tantanee et al. [211] proposed a hybrid of wavelet and

autoregressive models, called WARM, which performed more effectively for long lead

times. Prasad [206] proposed another similar hybrid model with the integration of WNN

and iterative input selection (IIS). The hybrid model was called IIS–W-ANN, and was

benchmarked with the M5 model tree. Their dataset included streamflow water level

measurements from 40 years. The IIS–W-ANN hybrid model outperformed the M5 tree.

This study advocated that the novel IIS–W-ANN method should be considered as an
excellent flood forecasting model. Nevertheless, the model could be further optimized for

better performance using optimization methods introduced in references [221–225]. In fact,

such optimizers can complement IIS–W-ANN for fine-tuning the hidden-layer weights

and biases for better prediction. Mekanik [212] used ANFIS to forecast seasonal rainfall. A

comparison of the performance and accuracy of the ANN model and a physical model

showed promising results for ANFIS. Rainfall measurements of 1900–1999 were used for

training and validation, and the following decade was used for testing. The results showed

that ANFIS outperformed the ANN models in all cases, comparable to Predictive Ocean

Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), and better than climatology. Furthermore, the

study demonstrated the accuracy of ANFIS compared to global climate models. In

addition, the study suggested ANFIS as an alternative tool for long-term predictions.

ANFIS was reported as being easy to implement with low complexity and minimal input

requirements, as well as less development time. Reference [213] compared the

performances of ANFIS, ANNs, and SVM. This dataset included monthly flow data from

1953 to 2004, where the period of 2000–2004 was used for validation. ANFIS and SVM were

evaluated as being better for long-term predictions. References [224,226] compared the

performances of ANFIS, ANNs, and SVM for the monthly prediction of floods. The

comparison results indicated that the ML models provided more accuracy than the

statistical models in predicting streamflow. Furthermore, ANN and ANFIS presented

more accuracy vs. SVM. However, for low-flow predictions, the SVM and ANN models

outperformed ANFIS. Reference [215] proposed a modified variation of a hybrid model of

NLPM–ANN to predict wetness and flood. To do so, the seasonal rainfall and wetness data

of various stations were considered. The NLPM–ANN model was reported as being

significantly superior to the models of previous studies. In another hybrid model,

Reference [216] investigated the performance of a modified EMD–SVM (M-EMDSVM)

model for long lead times, and comparedits accuracy with ANN and SVM models. The M-

EMDSVM model was created through modification of EMD–SVM. The evaluation results

showed that the M-EMDSVM model was a better alternative to ANN, SVM, and EMD–
SVM models for long lead-time streamflow prediction. The M-EMDSVM model also

presented better stability, representativeness, and precision.

Zhu, Zhou, Ye, and Meng [217] contributed to the integration of ML with time-series

decomposition to predict monthly streamflow through estimation and comparison of

accuracy of a number of models. For that matter, they integrated SVM with discrete

wavelet transform (DWT) and EMD. The hybrid models were called DWT–SVR and EMD–

SVR. The results indicated that decomposition improved the accuracy of streamflow

prediction, yet DWT performed even better. Further comparisons of SVR, EMD–SVR, and

DWT–SVR models showed that EMD and DWT were significantly more accurate than SVR

for monthly streamflow prediction.

Araghinejad [219] presented the applicability of ensembles for probabilistic flood

prediction in real-life cases. He utilized the K-nearest neighbor regression for the purpose

of combining individual networks and improving the performance of prediction. As an

EPS of ANNs, the hybrid model of K-NN was proposed to increase the generalization

ability of neural networks, and was further compared with the results using MLP, MLP–

PLC, and ANN. The hourly water level data of the reservoir from 132 typhoons in the

period of 1971–2001 were used. The proposed EPS had a promising ability of

generalization and prediction accuracy.

Bass and Bedient [218] proposed a hybrid model of surrogate–ML for long-term flood

prediction suitable for TCs. The methods used included ANN integrated with principal

component analysis (PCA), Kriging integrated with PC, and Kriging. The models were

reported as efficient and fast to build. The results demonstrated that the methodology had

an acceptable generalization ability suitable for urbanized and coastal watersheds.

Reference [220] contributed to improving decomposition ensemble prediction models by

developing an EEMD–ANN model for monthly prediction. The performance comparison

with SVM, ANFIS, and ANNs showed a significant improvement in accuracy.

Ravansalar [51] compared the performances of the prediction models of WNN, ANN,

and a novel hybrid model called wavelet linear genetic programming (WLGP) in dealing

with the long-term prediction of streamflow. The results showed an accuracy of 0.87 for
the WLGP model. The comparison of the performance evaluation showed that WLGP

significantly increased the accuracy for the monthly approximation of peak streamflow.

6. Comparative Performance Analysis and Discussion

In this section, the comparative performance analysis of ML methods for long-term

prediction is presented. Figure 9 represents the values of RMSE and R2 for single methods

of ML, where ANNs, SVMs, and SVRs show better results. Figure 10 represents the values

of RMSE and R2 for hybrid methods of ML, where decomposition and ensemble methods

outperformed the more traditional methods.

ANNs are the most widely used ML method due to their accuracy, high fault

tolerance, and powerful parallel processing in dealing with complex flood functions,

especially where datasets are not complete. However, generalization remains an issue with

ANN. In this context, ANFIS, MLP, and SVM performed better than ANNs. However,

wavelet transforms were reported to be useful for decompositions of original time series,

improving the ability of most ML methods by providing insight into datasets on various

resolution levels as appropriate data pre-processing. For instance, WNNs generally

produce more consistent results compared to traditional ANNs.

 Comparative performance analysis of single methods for long-term
1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

RMSE R2

Figure 9. Comparative performance analysis of single methods of ML for long-term

prediction.

Either in short-term [227] or long-term rainfall–runoff modeling [50], overall, the

accuracy, precision, and performance of most decomposed ML algorithms (e.g., WNN)

were reported as better than those which were trained using un-decomposed time series.

However, despite the achievement of WNNs, the predictions were not satisfactory for long

lead times. To increase the accuracy of the longer-lead-time predictions up to one year,

novel hybrids such as WARM, which is a hybrid of WNN and an autoregressive model,

and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (WMRA) were proposed. In other cases, it was seen

that the performance of models improved greatly through decomposition to produce

cleaner inputs. For example, wavelet–neuro-fuzzy models [228] were significantly more

accurate and faster than single ANFIS and ANNs. However, with an increase in the lead

time, the uncertainty in prediction increased. Thus, the evaluation of model precision

should come into consideration in future studies.

Data decomposition methods, e.g., autoregressive, wavelet transforms, wavelet–

autoregressive, DWT, IIS, and EMD, contributed highly to developing hybrid methods for
longer prediction lead time, good stability, great representativeness, and higher accuracy.

These data decomposition methods were integrated with ANNs, SVM, WNN, and FR, and

they are expected to gain more popularity among researchers. The other trend in

improvement of prediction accuracy and generalization capability involves EPS. In fact,

recent ensemble methods contributed to good improvements in speed, accuracy, and

generalization. The EPS of ANNs and WNNs, using BB sampling, genetic programming,

simple average, stop training, Bayesian, data fusion, regression, and other soft computing

techniques, showed promising results and better performances than traditional ML

methods. In ensembles, however, it is noted that human decision as the input variable

provided superior performance than models without this important input. However, the

most significant hybrid models were novel decomposition–ensemble prediction models

suitable for monthly prediction. Their performance comparisons with SVM, ANFIS, and

ANNs showed significant improvements in accuracy and generalization. Figure 10

represents the comparative performance analysis of hybrid methods of ML for short-term

prediction. Here, it is also worth mentioning the importance of further signal processing

techniques (e.g., Reference [228]) for both long-term and short-term floods.
 Comparative performance analysis of single methods for long-term
1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

RMSE R2

Figure 10. Comparative performance analysis of hybrid methods of ML for short-term

prediction.

This paper suggests that the drawbacks to major ML methods in terms of accuracy,

uncertainty, performance, and robustness were improved through the hybridization of ML

methods, as well as using an ensemble variation of the ML method. It is expected that this

trend represents the future horizon of flood prediction.

5. Conclusions

The current state of ML modeling for flood prediction is quite young and in the early

stage of advancement. This paper presents an overview of machine learning models used
in flood prediction, and develops a classification scheme to analyze the existing literature.

The survey represents the performance analysis and investigation of more than 6000

articles. Among them, we identified 180 original and influential articles where the

performance and accuracy of at least two machine learning models were compared. To do

so, the prediction models were classified into two categories according to lead time, and

further divided into categories of hybrid and single methods. The state of the art of these

classes was discussed and analyzed in detail, considering the performance comparison of

the methods available in the literature. The performance of the methods was evaluated in

terms of R2 and RMSE, in addition to the generalization ability, robustness, computation

cost, and speed. Despite the promising results already reported in implementing the most

popular machine learning methods, e.g., ANNs, SVM, SVR, ANFIS, WNN, and DTs, there

was significant research and experimentation for further improvement and advancement.

In this context, there were four major trends reported in the literature for improving the

quality of prediction. The first was novel hybridization, either through the integration of

two or more machine learning methods or the integration of a machine learning method(s)

with more conventional means, and/or soft computing. The second was the use of data

decomposition techniques for the purpose of improving the quality of the dataset, which

highly contributed in improving the accuracy of prediction. The third was the use of an

ensemble of methods, which dramatically increased the generalization ability of the

models and decreased the uncertainty of prediction. The fourth was the use of add-on

optimizer algorithms to improve the quality of machine learning algorithms, e.g., for better

tuning the ANNs to reach optimal neuronal architectures. It is expected that, through these

four key technologies, flood prediction will witness significant improvements for both

short-term and long-term predictions. Surely, the advancement of these novel ML methods

depends highly on the proper usage of soft computing techniques in designing novel

learning algorithms. This fact was discussed in the paper, and the soft computing

techniques were introduced as the main contributors in developing hybrid ML methods of

the future.
 Here, it is also worth mentioning that the multidisciplinary nature of this work was

the most challenging difficulty to overcome in this paper. Having contributions from the

coauthors of both realms of ML and hydrology was the key to success. Furthermore, the

novel search methodology and the creative taxonomy and classification of the ML methods

led to the original achievement of the paper.

For future work, conducting a survey on spatial flood prediction using machine

learning models is highly encouraged. This important aspect of flood prediction was

excluded from our paper due to the nature of modeling methodologies and the datasets

used in predicting the location of floods. Nevertheless, the recent advancements in

machine learning models for spatial flood analysis revolutionized this particular realm of

flood forecasting, which requires separate investigation.

Author Contributions: P.O., the machine learning expert, contributed to investigation,

methodology, supervision, communication, resources, data curation, and project management. A.M.

contributed to the original draft preparation, data collection, formal data analysis, investigation,

critical review, and final revisions, K.C., the hydrology expert, contributed to supervision, validation,

revision, discussion, resources, improvement, and advice.

Funding: This research was funded by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology AI Lab

and the European Research Consortium for Informatics and Mathematics (ERCIM).

Acknowledgments: Dr. Amir Mosavi contributed to this research during his tenure through an

ERCIM Alain Bensoussan Fellowship Program under supervision of Prof. Pinar Ozturk.

Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Nomenclatures

WMO World meteorological organization

GCM Global circulation models

SPOTA Seasonal Pacific Ocean temperature analysis

ANN Artificial neural networks

POTA Pacific Ocean temperature analysis

QPE Quantitative precipitation estimation

CLIM Climatology average method

EOF Empirical orthogonal function

MLR Multiple linear regressions

QPF Quantitative precipitation forecasting

MNLR Multiple nonlinear regressions

ML Machine learning

MLR Multiple linear regression

ANN Neural networks

WNN Wavelet-based neural network

ARIMA Auto regressive integrated moving average

USGS United States Geological Survey

FFA Flood frequency analyses

QRT Quantile regression techniques

SPOTA Seasonal Pacific Ocean temperature analysis

SVM Support vector machines

LS-SVM Least-square support vector machines

AI Artificial intelligence

VRM Vector Regression Machine

FFNN Feed-forward neural network

FBNN Feed-backward networks

MLP Multilayer perceptron

ANFIS Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

BPNN Backpropagation neural network

SVR Support vector regression

LR Linear regression

FIS Fuzzy inference system

CART Classification and regression tree

LMT Logistic model trees

NWP Numerical weather prediction

NBT Naive Bayes trees

ARMA Autoregressive moving averaging

REPT Reduced-error pruning trees

DT Decision tree

ELM Extreme learning machine

EPS Ensemble prediction systems

SNIP Source normalized impact per paper

SRM Structural risk minimization

AR Autoregressive

SJR SCImago journal rank

ARMAX Linear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs

LMT Logistic model trees

ARMA Autoregressive moving averaging

ADT Alternating decision trees

NARX network Nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs

RMSE Root-mean-square error

RFFA Regional flood frequency analysis

NLR Nonlinear regression

AR Autoregressive

WARM Wavelet autoregressive model

NLR-R Nonlinear regression with regionalization approach

E Nash Sutcliffe index

FR Frequency ratio

SOM Self-organizing map

CHIM Cluster-based hybrid inundation model

FFRM Flash flood routing model

KGE Kling-Gupta efficiency

AME ANN-based monsoon rainfall enhancement

SSNN State-space neural network

SSL Suspended sediment load

NSE Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency

E-CHAID Exhaustive CHAID

CHAID Chi-squared automatic interaction detector

CLIM Climatology average model

HEC–HMS Hydrologic engineering center–hydrologic modeling system

SOM Self-organizing map

PBIAS Percent bias

NLPM Nonlinear perturbation model

RF Rotation forest

KSOFM-NNM Kohonen self-organizing feature maps neural networks model

DBP Division-based backpropagation

DBPANN DBP neural network

NLPM-ANN Nonlinear perturbation model based on neural network

GRNNM Generalized regression neural networks model

IIS Iterative input selection

EEMD Ensemble empirical mode decomposition

ANNE Artificial neural network ensembles

DWT Discrete wavelet transform

SFF Seasonal flood forecasting

MP Water monitoring points

WBANN Wavelet–bootstrap–ANN

HBI Hilsenhoff’s biotic index

RT Regression trees

EMD Empirical mode decomposition

LLR Local linear regression

BFGS Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno

M-EMD Modified empirical mode decomposition

IIS Iterative input selection

SAR Seasonal first-order autoregressive

 BFGSNN Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno neural network

GRNN Artificial neural networks including generalized regression network

T–S Takagi–Sugeno

WLGP Wavelet linear genetic programming

E Nash coefficients

TSC-T–S Clustering based Takagi–Sugeno

TCs Tropical cyclones

PCA Principal component analysis

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