FMDS0122
FMDS0122
FMDS0122
Table of Contents
Page
List of Tables
Table 1. Selected Major Loss Events ............................................................................................................. 7
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1-22 Maximum Foreseeable Loss
Page 2 FM Global Property Loss Prevention Data Sheets
1.0 SCOPE
This data sheet introduces the principles of maximum foreseeable loss (MFL) and highlights scenarios for
specific loss events (e.g., fire in a key manufacturing plant or warehouse, boiler explosion, runaway thermal
reaction).
After a major loss event, the question “What could have been done to avoid or limit the extent of damage?″
is always asked. This data sheet highlights the key items to recognize and use to develop a location-based
maximum foreseeable loss scenario.
An MFL evaluation structure is provided to help evaluate the inherent, major hazards of construction,
occupancy, equipment, and processes, as well as logistics and facility layout.
An MFL can be limited only by specific factors, which are covered in Data Sheet 1-42, MFL Limiting Factors.
1.1 Hazards
MFL includes nearly all perils except natural hazards.
For a description of the hazards associated with MFL, see the following FM Global Understanding the Hazard
(UTH) publications:
• Lack of Equipment Contingency Planning (P0179)
• Fire and Explosion Exposure (P0251)
1.2 Changes
July 2021. Interim revision. Minor editorial changes were made.
2.1 Introduction
The maximum foreseeable loss (MFL) is the largest loss to result from an insured event, as calculated from
an understanding of the overall hazard and associated business impact. This event assumes that active
protection systems or safety devices are impaired, with the exception of specifically FM Approved and tested
MFL fire doors. The event can be related to fire, explosion, equipment failure, or other scenarios, with the
exception of natural hazards.
Organizations should have an understanding of MFL events at their key facilities in order to understand the
maximum impact resulting from a rare but foreseeable event. Mitigation measures to reduce MFL exposures,
whether by physical means or risk-driven solutions, can then be taken (e.g., contingency planning).
The MFL scenario is based on impaired active protection systems and/or safety devices, reliance on passive
protection only, and an understanding of the overall hazard and associated business impact. Additional
unfavorable conditions, such as delayed fire service response, are considered. Note that the passive
protection must be a sustainable, reliable, physical limiting factor (see Data Sheet 1-42).
2.2 Construction
2.2.1 Use FM Approved equipment, materials, and services whenever they are applicable. For a list of
products and services that are FM Approved, see the Approval Guide and/or RoofNav, online resources of
FM Approvals.
2.2.2 See Data Sheet 1-21, Fire Resistance of Building Assemblies, for recommendations on construction
types and new construction, as well as Data Sheet 1-42, MFL Limiting Factors.
2.3 Occupancy
2.3.1 Evaluate the effect on business continuity from a maximum foreseeable event (e.g., fire, explosion,
mechanical failure) and develop strategies to limit the business interruption to these events. Strategies may
include, but are not limited to, the following:
A. Using fire-resistant construction
B. MFL subdivision using MFL limiting factors to passively protect high-value property or critical processes
from the maximum foreseeable event.
C. Providing redundant capacity at a location not subject to the maximum foreseeable event.
2.4 Protection
2.4.1 The MFL event assumes that active protection systems are impaired. Therefore, protection against
the MFL event is limited to passive protection that mitigates damage to property and the interruption of
business resulting from the event. Refer to Data Sheet 1-42, MFL Limiting Factors, for more information.
2.5 Maintenance
2.5.1 Maintain active protection, and policies and procedures calculated to prevent the MFL event from
occurring. These may include, but are not be limited to, the following:
A. Providing proper maintenance and supervision of automatic sprinkler valves and the sprinkler systems
they control.
B. Maintaining fire detection and alarm systems.
C. Incorporating and enforcing policies that control or limit ignition sources, such as the following:
• Cutting and welding
• Smoking
D. Establishing and enforcing procedures for testing and maintenance of electrical systems.
2.5.2 Maintain MFL limiting factors (see DS 1-42) for effectiveness and reliability.
3.1.1 Peril
The event can be related to fire, explosion, equipment failure, or other scenario, with the exception of natural
hazards.
3.1.2 Scenario
The scenario assumes active protection systems or safety devices are impaired, with the exception of
specifically FM Approved and tested MFL fire doors.
3.1.4.2 Interdependencies
Any impact on company production (upstream and downstream of site) until operations are fully restored,
and the associated impact thereof.
3.1.4.3 Mitigation
Consider potential contingency plans or business decisions that can minimize the business interruption impact
during the MFL restoration time.
Make-up capacity could be present at other locations within the company, or any third-party contracts that
are in place. Generally, only make-up capacities that are verified by a business continuity plan (that is regularly
updated with internal and external partners) should be considered.
3.2.1 Fire
For most facilities, the maximum foreseeable loss scenario results from a fire. A starting fire is expected to
grow and spread via all available combustibles. For example: combustible materials in construction or
installations, raw materials, products, packaging materials, etc. Within a building (or complex of building
sections) such combustibles are often available. In this case, a fire will involve the entire building or all building
sections and, if large enough, will jump spaces between buildings.
3.2.2 Explosion
Some facilities have an inherent explosion risk associated with their operations that can cause the maximum
foreseeable loss event. An explosion can result from combustible dust, flammable gas, or ignitable liquid.
If the initial explosion event can result in fire spreading via additional combustibles, the total event can be
analyzed as a fire event. This applies to many operations involving ignitable liquids.
Facilities handling large quantities of flammable gas or ignitable liquid held above their atmospheric boiling
point may have the potential for an explosion. Special conditions are needed for this to occur. This typically
only applies at large chemical and oil/gas types of operations and is often the MFL scenario when the potential
exists. See FM Data Sheet 7-42, Evaluating Vapor Cloud Explosions Using a Flame Acceleration Method,
for more details.
Gas explosions can cause the maximum foreseeable loss event, especially if related to critical pieces of
equipment such as gas-fired boilers or turbines.
Dust explosions can result in the maximum foreseeable loss scenario if an initial event propagates between
pieces of equipment and/or causes a secondary explosion that cascades through the facility.
Certain materials are highly energetic and have a severe inherent explosion potential (see Data Sheet 7-28).
Their storage, handling, and use is typically heavily regulated. For example, by AASTP-1, Manual of NATO
Safety Principles for the Storage of Military Ammunition and Explosives. Analysis of the maximum foreseeable
loss event is part of the hazard assessment of the operations.
3.2.4 Contamination
Two events in which contamination was a leading factor were the Bhopal incident at a Union Carbide pesticide
plant on 2 December 1984, and the Seveso incident at the ICMESA plant on 10 July 1976. In both cases
a runaway reaction caused toxic gas to be released to the atmosphere once containment was lost. Other
contaminations may include PCBs, asbestos, or biohazards.
3.3.1 Fire
Fire spread in a maximum foreseeable fire scenario can be stopped by constructing an MFL fire wall in a
building or complex of attached buildings (see Data Sheet 1-42).
A maximum foreseeable fire scenario involving an entire building or attached building sections can be
prevented from involving any other detached buildings by adequate space separation (see Data Sheet 1-42).
3.3.2 Explosion
Explosion hazards are typically inherent to materials and processes. Inherently safer processes can eliminate
hazards (such as a vapor cloud explosion potential) or reduce them (for example, by reducing the batch
size of reactions or storing smaller amounts of energetic materials in one place).
Limiting the MFL event for dust explosions is possible by:
• separation of process lines so equipment is interconnected to a limited extent.
• ensuring no secondary explosion potential exists.
The energy released in vapor cloud explosions or energetic material explosions cannot be limited. Their
impact can only be reduced by specific facility lay-out design and (pressure-resistant) building construction.
3.3.4 Contamination
If contamination is a significant factor in the maximum foreseeable loss scenario, the hazard is inherent to
the chemicals that are produced, or used in the process or support systems. Inherently safer processes can
eliminate hazards or reduce them.
Maximum foreseeable loss scenarios change over time, too, as production methods and logistics change.
The layout of a facility should be influenced by the answers to the following questions:
• What are we willing to lose under worst-case condition?
• What are the inherent hazards of our operations?
• What is the difference between the expected impact of a “normal” and a maximum foreseeable loss?
• Should only noncombustible construction materials be used?
• Can similar production lines be set up in separate buildings to avoid putting “all our eggs in one
basket?”
• Can we set a standard for protection against typical loss scenarios to reduce the likelihood of an
MFL event (e.g., fire walls, sprinklers, explosion venting, interlocks for ignitable liquids, n+1 support
systems, redundant equipment)?
• And, once the layout is established, will new buildings be placed in spaces that have in the past
been reserved to ensure fire will not spread to the next building?
A facility layout starts with a conscious decision to limit and protect against the MFL event. The following
points can be used as a guide:
A. Where possible, separate production, storage, and support areas. Use noncombustible construction
for walls and roofs, and create a space between buildings that is in accordance with Data Sheet 1-42.
B. As an alternative to space separation, consider removing combustibles from a dedicated areas to
prevent a fire from spreading. This applies only to non-combustible buildings of substantial area (see space
separation guidance in Data Sheet 1-42). The amount of combustibles should be so low that no automatic
fire protection would be needed in case of an ignition source being present in the building.
C. As an alternative to space separation, consider constructing a MFL wall between critical buildings.
D. Consider DLC - Damage Limiting Construction for explosion hazards.
E. Consider Redundancy of key processes.
F. Consider impact on revenue following restoration time of operations after an MFL event (i.e., contingency
planning).
The awareness that MFL events can happen is the start of successful management of those events. A
commitment to managing change is also required to prevent mitigation strategies from becoming neglected
or eroded by outside forces optimizing space, processes, or construction.
4.0 REFERENCES
4.1 FM Global
Data Sheet 1-2, Earthquakes
Data Sheet 1-3, High-Rise Buildings
Data Sheet 1-20, Protection Against Exterior Fire Exposure
Data Sheet 1-21, Fire Resistance of Building Assemblies
Data Sheet 1-28, Wind Design
Data Sheet 1-28R/1-29R, Roof Systems
Data Sheet 1-44, Damage-Limiting Construction
Data Sheet 1-54, Roof Loads for New Construction
Data Sheet 3-26, Fire Protection Water Demand for Non-Storage Sprinklered Properties
Data Sheet 7-4, Paper Machines and Pulp Dryers
Data Sheet 7-32, Ignitable Liquid Operations
Data Sheet 7-42, Evaluating Vapor Cloud Explosions Using a Flame Acceleration Method
Data Sheet 7-43, Loss Prevention in Chemical Plants
Data Sheet 7-54, Natural Gas and Gas Piping
Data Sheet 7-88, Outdoor Ignitable Liquid Storage Tanks
systems or safety devices are impaired, with the exception of specifically FM Approved and tested MFL fire
doors. The event can be related to fire, explosion, equipment failure, or other scenario, with the exception
of natural hazards.
MFL limiting Factor: See “Limiting factor.”
Noncombustible (NC): Noncombustible walls are walls that will resist 27 kW/m2 of radiant heat exposure
indefinitely without ignition, penetration, the opening of joints, or failure. NC walls usually consist of panels
over steel framing. Panels may be painted or galvanized steel, corrugated iron, or corrugated cementitious
panels supported on a steel frame. The panels are light in weight, and unless protected or adequately
separated, they may buckle and open at their joints, or crack under severe radiation or fire exposure. Since
heat will easily conduct through thin steel and ignite combustible insulation, insulations acceptable for use in
this category include glass fiber, mineral wool, and expanded glass. For other types of insulation, see Class
1 or combustible categories.
Noncombustible panels also include protected metal panels and fiber-reinforced cement panels FM Approved
and listed in the Approval Guide under Exterior Roofing and Siding.
Reinforced concrete: Construction using a composite material made from concrete and steel (or another
material, such as glass fiber-reinforced plastic) where the concrete and reinforcement work compositely.
Examples of reinforced concrete walls are tilt-up construction and precast concrete construction.
Reinforced masonry: Masonry units, reinforcing steel, grout, and/ or mortar combined to act together to
resist design loads. Reinforced masonry generally has both vertical and horizontal steel reinforcement.
RoofNav: An online resource of FM Approvals listing FM Approved roofing products and assemblies.
• Angle exposure protection was increased slightly based on theoretical calculations made in conjunction
with the Basic Research Department.
• Intumescent dampers are not recommended as they may be damaged by hose streams.
• It is now recommended that cables penetrate walls near floor level to further decrease the probability of
cables damaging the fire wall. The alternative of looping cable that penetrated an MFL fire wall at roof
level was deleted.
• Alternative protection for roofs, other than built-up roofing, was added.
• Some minor changes were made regarding space separation.
• A loss experience section was added.
• The recommended minimum spacing between the openings in MFL fire walls and combustible storage in
the direction parallel to the wall was increased from 1 ft (0.3 m) to 2 ft (0.6 m) due to the low probability
of achieving a tight fit between the wall opening and the door or its guide rail.
• It is now recommended that a portion of the live load, as well as the dead load, be considered when using
the catenary cable formula for tied walls.
• When roof mounted structures are within 50 ft (15.2 m) of MFL fire walls, fire-rated construction should
be provided on the exposed side of the roof projection. The amount of fire resistance the partition should
have is dependent upon the severity of the exposure and the distance between the exposure and the roof
projection.
• Special protection is needed when heat and smoke vents, skylights and roof penetrations are within 25
ft (1.8 m) of an MFL fire wall. Heat and smoke vents should be of metal construction and skylights should
be constructed of wired glass or tempered gIass. Intake and exhaust ducts shouId be equipped with
automatic closing fire dampers flush with the roof deck and care should be taken to prevent the closing
mechanism from rusting. In each case, combustibles should not be stored within 8 ft (1.8 m) of roof
penetrations.
August 1976.
• Loss Prevention Data Sheet 1-22, Criteria for Maximum Foreseeable Loss Subdivision.
• Superseded Handbook Chapter 7.
• Provided the definition of Maximum Foreseeable Loss.
• Provided general design criteria for MFL fire walls and MFL space separation.
April 1952.
• First printing of Loss Prevention Data Sheet 1-22, Fire Walls and Fire Partitions.