QuanRiskAssessment and Consequence Modelling-Student Material

Hazardous Modelling Quantitative
Risk Final
Review Material Frequency
Consequence Source Hazard Effect Estimation Thoughts
Release Analysis
Concept Definitions
Hazard – An intrinsic chemical, physical, societal, economic or political

condition that has the potential for causing damage to a risk receptor
(people, property or the environment).
A hazardous event (undesirable event) requires an initiating event or failure and then either
failure of or lack of safeguards to prevent the realisation of the hazardous event.
Examples of intrinsic hazards:

• Toxicity and flammability – H2S in sour natural gas
• High pressure and temperature – steam drum
• Potential energy – walking a tight rope
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Risk – A measure of human injury, environmental damage or economic loss in

terms of both the frequency and the magnitude of the loss or injury.
Risk = Consequence x Frequency
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Risk
Intrinsic Undesirable Consequences

Hazards Event
Likelihood of Likelihood of
Event Consequences
Example
Storage tank Loss of life/ property,
with Spill and Fire Environmental damage,
flammable Damage to reputation of
material facility
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Risk

Hazards Event
Causes Event Consequences
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Concept Definitions Layers of Protection are used to

enhance the safe operation. Layers of
Protection Analysis (LOPA) is used to
Risk Layers of Layers of determine if there are sufficient layers of
Protection Protection protection for a predicted accident
scenario. Can the risk of this scenario
be tolerated?
Hazards Event
Causes Event Consequences
Causes are also known
as Initiating Events.
Preparedness,
Prevention Mitigation,
Land Use Planning,
Response, Recovery
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Quantifying Risk
Risk – A measure of human injury, environmental damage or economic loss in
terms of both the frequency and the magnitude of the loss or injury.
Rh Consequencei, of Frequencyi, of
Risk from an undesirable event, h consequence i from
undesirable event h
event, h
where i is each consequence
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Quantifying Risk
If more than one type of receptor can be impacted by an event, then the
total risk from an undesirable event can be calculated as:
Rh
Consequencei, of Frequencyi, of
Risk from an
undesirable undesirable event, h consequence i, from
event, h event h
where k is each receptor (ie. people, equipment, the

environment, production)
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Define the System

Overview of Risk Assessment
Risk
Hazard
1. Identify hazardous materials and process Analysis
conditions Identification
2. Identify hazardous events
3. Analyse the consequences and frequency of
events using:
i. Qualitative Risk Assessment
(Process Hazard Analysis using
Consequence Frequency
Risk Matrix techniques) Analysis Analysis
- SLRA (screening level risk assessment)
- What-if
- HAZOP (Hazard & Operability study)
- FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis)
Risk
Evaluation
Risk Assessment
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Define the System

Overview of Risk Assessment
Risk
Hazard
ii. Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment Analysis
Identification
- Fault trees/ Event trees/ Bow-tie
iii. Quantitative Risk Assessment

- Mathematical models for hazard effents Consequence Frequency
include explosion overpressure levels, Analysis Analysis
thermal radiation levels
- The consequences are determined from
the hazardous effects
Risk
Evaluation
Risk Assessment
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Hazard effects can be caused by the release of hazardous material
Hazardous materials are typically contained in storage or process vessels

(as a gas, liquid or solid).
Depending on the location of the vessel, release may occur from a fixed facility or
during transportation (truck, rail, ship, barge, pipeline) over land or water.
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Release of Solid Hazardous Material
The release is significant if the solid is:

• An unstable material such as an explosive
• Flammable or combustible solid (petroleum coke)
• Toxic or carcinogenic (either in bulk or as dust)
• Soluble in water and spill occurs over water (dissolves into the water)
• Dust (which can cause clouds and impact respiration)
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Release of Liquids or Gases from Containment
Release from containment will result in:
• an instantaneous release if there is a major failure
• a semi-continuous release if a hole develops in a vessel
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Unpressurised Liquid Discharge From

Tanks
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Liquid Release from a Pressurised Storage Tank
Pressurised storage tanks containing liquefied gas are of

particular interest as their temperature is between the
material’s boiling temperature at atmospheric pressure and
its critical temperature. A release will cause:
- A rapid flash-off of material.
- The formation of a two-phase jet which could create a liquid pool

around the tank. The pool will evaporate over time.
- Formation of small droplets which could form a cloud that is denser

and cooler than the surrounding air. This is a heavy gas cloud which
remains close to the ground and disperses slowly.
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Liquid Release from a Pressurised Storage Tank

Wind Outdoor Temperature > Normal Boiling Point of
Liquid
Rapid Flash-off and Cooling

Two-phase Dense Gas Plume
Large Liquid Droplets Evaporating Liquid Pool
Outdoor Temperature < Normal Boiling Point of Liquid 15

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where and are the mean heat capacity and

the mean latent heat of vaporization,
respectively, over the temperature range
Toto Tb
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Consequences of Liquid Release from a Pressurised Storage Tank

Flammable Gas Release No Ignition = vapour cloud
Immediate ignition = jet fire
Delayed ignition = vapour cloud explosion
Flammable Liquid Release No ignition = toxic health issues

Immediate Ignition – pool fire
Pool fire under or near a pressure vessel can lead to a
Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE)
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Hazardous Events and Concerns

Event Type Event Mechanism Hazard Concern
Fires
Gas/Vapour - Jet fire, flash fire, fireball Thermal radiation, flame
Liquid - Pool fire, tank fire, running fire, spray fire, fireball impingement, combustion
Solids - Bulk fire, smouldering fire products, initiation of further
fires
Explosions
Confined - Runaway reactions, combustion explosion, physical explosion, boiling Blast pressure waves,
liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), Vapor cloud explosion missiles, windage, thermal
Unconfined - Vapour cloud explosion radiation, combustion
products
Gas Clouds
Heavy Gases - Jets Asphyxiation, toxicity,
Light Gases - Evaporation, volatilisation, boil-off flammability, range of
concentrations.
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Modelling the Effects of a Hazardous Material Release
The type of material and containment conditions will govern source strength.
The type of hazard will determine hazard effect:

- Gas Clouds: concentration, C
- Fires: thermal radiation flux, I
- Explosions: overpressure, Po
The probability of effect, P, can be calculated at a receptor.
We will focus on effect modelling for combustion sources:

fires and explosions.
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Combustion Basics
• Combustion is the rapid exothermic oxidation of an ignited fuel.

• Combustion will always occur in the vapour phase – liquids are
volatised and solids are decomposed into vapour.
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Essential Elements for Combustion

Fuel •
•
Gases: acetylene, propane, carbon monoxide, hydrogen
Liquids: gasoline, acetone, ether, pentane
• Solids: plastics, wood dust, fibres, metal particles
Oxidizer Ignition Source

• Gases: oxygen, fluorine, chlorine • Sparks, flames, static electricity, heat
• Liquids: hydrogen peroxide, nitric acid, perchloric acid
• Solids: metal peroxides, ammonium nitrate
Examples: Wood, air, matches or

Gasoline, air, spark
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Essential Elements for Combustion

Fuel •
•
Gases: acetylene, propane, carbon monoxide, hydrogen
Liquids: gasoline, acetone, ether, pentane
• Solids: plastics, wood dust, fibres, metal particles
Oxidiser Ignition Source

• Gases: oxygen, fluorine, chlorine • Sparks, flames, static electricity, heat
• Liquids: hydrogen peroxide, nitric acid, perchloric acid
• Solids: metal peroxides, ammonium nitrate
Methods for controlling combustion are focused on eliminating

ignition sources AND preventing flammable mixtures.
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Flammability
Ignition – A flammable material may be ignited by the combination of a fuel and
oxidant in contact with an ignition source. OR, if a flammable gas is sufficiently
heated, the gas can ignite.
Minimum Ignition Energy (MIE) – Smallest energy input needed to start
combustion. Typical MIE of hydrocarbons is 0.25 mJ. To place this in perspective,
the static discharge from walking across a carpet is 22 mJ; an automobile spark
plug is 25 mJ!
Auto-Ignition Temperature – The temperature threshold above which enough
energy is available to act as an ignition source.
Flash Point of a Liquid – The lowest temperature at which a liquid gives off
sufficient vapour to form an ignitable mixture with air.
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Combustion Definitions
Explosion – Rapid expansion of gases resulting in a rapidly moving pressure or
shock wave.
Physical Explosion – Results from the sudden failure of a vessel containing
high-pressure non-reactive gas.
Confined Explosion – Occurs within a vessel, a building, or a confined space.
Unconfined Explosion– Occurs in the open. Typically the result of a flammable gas
release in a congested area.
Boiling-Liquid Expanding-Vapour Explosions – Occurs if a vessel containing a
liquid above its atmospheric pressure boiling point suddenly ruptures.
Dust Explosion – Results from the rapid combustion of fine solid particles
suspended in air.
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More Combustion Definitions

Shock Wave– An abrupt pressure wave moving through a gas. In open air, a
shock wave is followed by a strong wind. The combination of a shock wave
and winds can result in a blast pressure wave.
Overpressure – The pressure of an explosion above atmospheric pressure; more

specifically, the pressure on an object, resulting from the shock wave.
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Types of Fire and Explosion Hazards

Fires Explosions
• Pool Fires • Physical Explosions
- Contained (circular pools, channel fires)
- Boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions (BLEVEs)
- Uncontained (catastrophic failure, steady release) - Rapid phase transitions (eg, water into hot oil)
- Compressed gas cylinder failure
• Tank Fires
• Combustion Explosions
• Jet Fires
- Deflagrations: speed of reaction front< speed of sound
- Vertical, tilted, horizontal discharge - Detonations: speed of reaction front> speed of sound
- Confined explosions
• Fireballs
- Vapour cloud explosions
• Running Fires - Dust explosions
• Line Fires
• Flash Fires
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Fires vs. Explosion Hazards

Combustion …
o Is an exothermic chemical reaction where energy is released following combination of a fuel
and an oxidant
o Occurs in the vapour phase – liquids are volatilised, solids are decomposed to vapours
• Fires AND explosions involve combustion – physical explosions are an

exception
• The rate of energy release is the major difference between fires and combustion
• Fires can cause explosions and explosions can cause fires
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The Effects
Major Fires Explosions

• Toxic concentrations from • Blast pressure levels
combustion emissions • Thermal radiation
• Thermal radiation • Missile trajectory
• Flame impingement • Ground shock
• Ignition temperature • Crater
Explosions can cause a lung haemorrhage,

eardrum damage, whole body translation.
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Modelling Major Fires

The goal of models is to…
o Assess the effects of thermal radiation on people, buildings and equipment – use the
empirical radiation fraction method
o Estimate thermal radiation distribution around the fire
o Relate the intensity of thermal radiation to the damage – this can be done using the PROBIT
technique or fixed-limit approach
Modelling methods
1. Determine the source term feeding the fire
2. Estimate the size of the fire as a function of time
3. Characterise the thermal radiation released from the combustion
4. Estimate thermal radiation levels at a receptor
5. Predict the consequence of the fire at a receptor 29
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Pool Fires
Heat radiation
from flames
Storage Tank
Pool of flammable Liquid from tank
Dyke
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Pool Fires
SIDE VIEW TOP VIEW
First Degree Burns
1% Fatalities Due to
Heat Radiation
100% Fatalities Due

to Heat Radiation
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Modelling Pool Fires

• The heat load on buildings and objects outside a
burning pool fire can be calculated using models.
A pool fire is assumed to be a solid cylinder.
• The radiation intensity is dependent on the
properties of the flammable liquid.
• Heat load is also influenced by:
• Distance from fire
Xm
• Relative humidity of the air
• Orientation of the object and the pool.
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Height of Pool Fire Flame Model
hf [m]
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Explosion Modelling
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Explosion Modelling
The results from the TNT approach can then be used to
1. Predict the pressure profile vs distance for the explosion.
2. Assess the consequences of the explosion on human health or objects
• PROBIT
• Damage effect methods
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Classifying Hazards for Consequence Modelling

In general, hazard effects associated with releases can be classified in to the
following:
1. Thermal Radiation – Radiation could affect a receptor positioned at some distance from a
fire (pool, jet, fireball).
2. Blast Pressure Wave – A receptor could be affected by pressure waves initiated by an
explosion, vapour cloud explosion or boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion
3. Missile Trajectory – This could result from ‘tub rocketing’.
4. Gas Cloud Concentrations – Being physically present in the cloud would be the primary
hazard.
5. Surface/ Groundwater Contaminant Concentrations – Exposure to contaminated
drinking water or other food chain receptors could adversely effect health
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Consequence Models
These models are used to estimate the extent of potential damage caused by a
hazardous event. These consist of 3 parts:
1. Source Term – The strength of source releases are estimated.
2. Hazard Levels or Effects –Hazard level at receptor points can be estimated for
an accident.
• Fire: A hazard model will estimate thermal radiation as a function of distance from the
source.
• Explosion: A hazard model will estimate the extent of overpressure. NO concentrations of
chemical are estimated.
3. Consequences – Potential damage is estimated. Consequence of interest will
be specific to each receptor type (humans, buildings, process equipment, glass).
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Source Term for Hazardous Material Events
Source models describe the physical and chemical processes occurring during
the release of a material. A release could be an outflow from a vessel,
evaporation from a liquid pool, etc.
The strength of a source is characterised by the amount of material released.
A release may be:

- instantaneous: source strength is total mass released m [units: kg]
- continuous: source strength is rate of mass released [units: kg/s]
The physical state of the material (solid, liquid, gas) together with the
containment pressure and temperature will govern source strength.
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Physical State of a Material Influences Type of Release

Vapour OR Two Phase
Gas / Vapour Leak Vapour/ Liquid Leak
Liquid OR Liquid Flashing into Vapour

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Source Models Describing a Material Release

• Flow of Liquid through a hole
• Flow of Liquid through a hole in a tank We are going to focus
• Flow of Liquid through pipes on the source models
• Liquids flashing through a hole highlighted in red.
• Liquid evaporating from a pool
• Flow of Gases through holes from vessels or pipes
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Liquid Flow Through a Hole
Ambient Conditions
We can consider a tank that develops a
hole. Pressure of the liquid contained in the
tank is converted into kinetic energy as it
Liquid drains from the hole. Frictional forces of
the liquid draining through the hole convert
some of the kinetic energy to thermal
energy.
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where
Liquid Ambient Conditions
Pg = gauge pressure
P = Pg P = 1 atm u = average fluid
utank = 0 uambient = u velocity (m/s)
Δz = 0 A = leak area (m2) Δz = height
Ws = 0 Ws = shaft work
ρ = ρliquid G = 9.81 m/s2
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Mass Flow of Liquid Through a Hole

Liquid
P = Pg
utank = 0
Co is the discharge coefficient
Δz = 0
For sharp-edged orifices, Re > 30,000 Co = 0.61
Ws = 0 For a well-rounded nozzle, Co = 1
ρ = ρliquid For a short pipe section attached to the vessel: Co = 0.81
When the discharge coefficient is unknown: use Co = 1
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Liquid Flow Through a Hole - Example

Consider a leak of benzene from 0.63 cm orifice-like hole in
Benzene Pressurised a pipeline. If the pressure in the pipe is 100 psig, how much
in a Pipeline benzene would be spilled in 90 minutes? The density of
benzene is 879 kg/m3.
Area of Hole Volume of Spill

Area = π/4 D2
Area = (π/4 * 0.0063)2 Volume = 2.07 kg/s * (90 min * 60 sec/min * 1/879 m3/kg = 12.7 m3
Area = 3.12 x 10-5 m2
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Liquid Flow Through a Hole In a Pressurized Tank
Ambient Conditions
Liquid Pressurised in
a Tank We can consider a tank that develops a hole.
Pressure of the liquid contained in the tank is
Utank = 0
converted into kinetic energy as it drains from the
hole. Frictional forces of the liquid draining through
the hole convert some of the kinetic energy to
thermal energy.
ρ = ρliquid
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Liquid Flow Through a Hole In A TANK
where
Ambient Conditions
Gauge Pressure
a Tank
Average Instantaneous
uambient = u Velocity of Fluid Flow
[length/time]
Utank = 0 Height [length]
Shaft Work [force*length]

ρ = ρliquid
Gravitational Constant
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Liquid Flow Through a Hole In a Tank
Mass Flow of Liquid Through a Hole in a Tank
a Tank
Utank = 0 Where Co is the discharge coefficient (0.61)
Assume Pg on the liquid surface is constant, which is valid

for
ρ = ρliquid Vessels which are padded with an inert gas to prevent an
internal explosion, or if the tank is vented to the atmosphere
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Evaporation from a Pool

The rate of evaporation from a pool depends on:
- The liquid’s properties
- The subsoil’s properties
It is also key to note if the liquid is released into a

contained pool or not. For contained pools, the pool
height = volume spilled/cross sectional area of the
containment structure.
If the release is not contained then it is called a freely

spreading pool. US EPA Offsite Consequence
Analysis Guide recommends a pool depth of 1 cm.
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Non-boiling Liquids
The vapour above the pool is blown away by
prevailing winds as a result of vapour diffusion. The
amount of vapour removed through this process
depends on:
• The partial vapour pressure of the liquid

• The prevailing wind velocity
• The area of the pool
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Mass Flow of Liquid Evaporating from a Pool
Qm – Evaporation rate (kg/s)

MW – molecular weight (g/mol)
K – mass transfer coefficient (cm/s)
[ie, if unknown use K = 0.83 (18.01/MW)0.333 cm/s,
which relates the mass transfer coefficient to that of
water]
A – area of the pool (m2)
Psat – saturation vapour pressure at Tl
R – ideal gas constant (J/mol K)
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Burn from a Pool
Let’s now assume that the liquid that drained

into the dyke is flammable and is ignited.
We can consider the burn rate of this flammable

liquid from the pool.
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Burn Rate of a Flammable Liquid from a Pool
Liquid Burn Rate from a Pool [m/s]
ΔHcomb = Heat of combustion (kJ/kg)

Δhvap = Heat of vapourization (kJ/kg)
Cp = heat capacity (kJ/kg K)
TBP = normal boiling point of the liquid (K)
Tl = liquid temperature (K)
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Burn Rate of a Flammable Liquid from a Pool
Liquid Burn Rate from a Pool
Mass Burn Rate
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Generation of Toxic Combustion Products

• Industrial fires can release toxic substances. Generation is
dependent on availability of combustion mixture and
oxygen supply.
• Combustion temperature determines the products
generated – more complete combustion occurs at higher
temperatures
• Toxic combustion products include:
Component in Burned Material Combustion Product
Halogen HCl, HF, Cl2 , COCl2
Nitrogen NOx, HCN, NH3
Sulphur SO2 , H2 S, COS
Cyanide HCN
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Damages Caused by the Release of Toxic Combustion Products
Toxic combustion products can adversely effect many types of people (employees,
emergency responders, residents) and the environment (air, groundwater, soil).
Based on past accidental releases, inhalation of toxic combustion products occurs

in about 20% of cases. In about 25% of cases, evidence of environmental pollution
has been noted.
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Consequence Models
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Concentration at a Receptor after an Unsteady Release

Exposure Duration at
Some Distance from the Release Location
Duration of Release
Instantaneous
Concentration
Average
Time From Release

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Atmospheric Dispersion – Surface Heat Flux
Surface heat flux determines the stability of the atmosphere: stable, unstable or
neutral.
Positive Heat Flux - Heat absorbed by the ground due to radiation from the sun
- Air masses are heated by heat transfer from the ground
Negative Heat Flux - Heat from ground is lost to space

- Air masses are cooled at the surface by heat transfer to the ground
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Stable Atmospheric Conditions

Temperature
Free Atmosphere
• Heat fluxes range
from -5 to -30 W/m2
Accumulation Layer
• Occurs at night or
with snow cover
Wind • Vertical movement
Profile Mixing is supressed
Turbulent Layer Height
• Turbulence is
100 m caused by the wind
Ground
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Steady Winds
Elevation
Distance from
Source
Concentration
Zero or Near Zero

Ground Level Concentrations
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Fluctuating
Elevation Winds
Distance from
Source
Concentration
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Unstable Atmospheric Conditions
Free Atmosphere
• Heat fluxes range
Entrainment Layer from 5 to
• 400 W/m2
• Occurs during the

Wind Mixed day or with little
cloud cover
Profile Layer Mixing
Height • Vertical movement
is enhanced
1500 m
Surface Layer • Convective cell
activity
Ground
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Unstable Atmospheric Conditions
Elevation
Distance from
Source
Concentration
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Neutral Atmospheric Conditions

Temperature
Free Atmosphere
• Occurs under
cloudy or windy
conditions
• There is a well-
Wind mixed boundary
layer.
Profile Mixing
Turbulent Layer Height • Vertical motions
are not suppressed.
500 m
• Turbulence is
caused by the wind.
Ground
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Neutral Atmospheric Conditions
Elevation
Distance from
Source
Concentration
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Plume Concentration - Gaussian Distribution Assumption

C(x,y,z,H) – average concentration (kg/m3)
G – release rate (kg/s)
σx, σy, σz – dispersion coefficients
z
(x – downwind, y – crosswind, z – vertical)
U – wind speed (m/s)
x H – height above ground of the release
H
y h
where
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Puff Modelling equation

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Atmospheric Dispersion - Calculating Plume Height

1. Determine the stability of the atmosphere (A, B, C, D, E, F)
Day Night
Surface Wind
Speed, U Incoming Solar Radiation Thinly Cloud
[m/sec] Overcast Coverage
Strong Moderate Slight
<2 A A-B B
2-3 A-B B C E F
3-5 B B-C C D E
5-6 C C-D D D D
>6 C D D D D
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2. Determine the Flux Parameter
Buoyancy Flux
Parameter (ΔT)c = 0.00575 * Ts * vs 2/3 / ds 1/3
3. For Buoyant Plumes, determine the flux parameter
Unstable or neutral (A, B, C, D)

F b 55 m / s
4 2
F b 55 m / s
4 2
where and
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4. Establish whether the plume is buoyancy or momentum dominated
If Ts – Ta ≥ ΔTc, then the plume is buoyancy dominated
If Ts – Ta ≤ ΔTc, then the plume is buoyancy dominated
For these equations

Ta – ambient temperature (K)
Ts – stack temperature (K)
us – stack exit velocity (m/s)
ds – stack diameter (m)
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5. Calculate the final plume rise, Δh
Atmospheric Condition Unstable and Neutral Stable
Buoyancy Dominated Plume Fb 55

x* = distance at which atmospheric 3 /4
turbulence starts to dominate air Fb
h 21 . 425 1/3
entrainment into the plume; us  Fb 
xf = distance from stack release to Fb 55 h 2 . 6 

final plume rise (=3.5 x*) Fb
3 /5  us s 
h 38 . 71
us
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Hazard Modelling - Heavy Gas Dispersion

Heavy gases are heavy by virtue of having large molecular weight relative to the
surrounding atmosphere or by being cold.
These gases have the potential to travel far distances without dispersing to ‘safe’
levels.
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Heavy Gas Dispersion – Release from Pressure-Liquefied Storage

Wind
If density of the gas is
higher than air, the plume
Rapid Flash-off and Cooling will spread radially
Two-phase Dense Gas Plume because of gravity. This
will result in a ‘gas pool’.
A heavy gas may collect in

low lying areas, such as
sewers, which could
hamper rescue operations.
Large Liquid Droplets Evaporating Liquid Pool
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Modelling the Consequences of a Hazardous Material Release

Consequence severity or potential damage, can be calculated at receptor locations.
Recall that receptors can be differentiated between individual and societal
consequences.
INDIVIDUAL CONSEQUENCES
• Expressed in terms of a hazard or potential damage at a given receptor at a given
location in relation to the location of the undesirable event.
Human receptor – consequence of hazard exposure = fatality, injury, etc.
Building receptor – consequence of hazard exposure = destruction, glass breakage,
etc.
SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES
• Expressed as an aggregate of all the individual consequences for an event.
Add up all the individual receptors consequences (human, building, equipment) for
total exposed area.
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Modelling the EFFECT of a Hazardous Material Release
Receptors can be influenced by hazardous material through various transport media,

including atmospheric dispersion, groundwater contamination, soil erosion, etc.
Atmospheric transport is the most important in risk assessments.
Hazard effects for materials are:

CONCENTRATION (C) – used for toxic and carcinogenic materials and materials
with systemic effects.
THERMAL RADIATION (I) – used for flammable materials.
OVERPRESSURE (P0) – used for determining blast wave consequences such as

deaths from lung haemorrhage or injuries from eardrum rupture.
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Hazardous Material Dose Curve and Response
The response induced by exposure to hazardous materials/conditions

(heat, pressure, radiation, impact, sound, chemicals) can be
characterised by a dose-response curve.
A dose-response curve for a SINGLE exposure can be described with the

probability unit (or PROBIT, Y).
90
Risk Final
Release Analysis
PROBIT Method for Estimating Consequence Level
PROBIT equations are available for a specific health consequences as a

function of exposure.
These equations were developed primarily using animal toxicity data. It

is important to acknowledge that when animal population are used for
toxicity testing, the population is typically genetically homogeneous –
this is unlike human population exposed during a chemical accident.
This is a source of uncertainty when using PROBIT equations.
91
Risk Final
Release Analysis
We need to gather the following information to estimate consequence

level with the PROBIT method:
• The quantity of material released

• The hazard level at the receptor’s location
o Concentration (C) for a toxic cloud or plume
o Thermal Radiation Intensity (I) for a fire
o Overpressure (P0) for an explosion
• The duration of the exposure of the receptor to the hazard

• The route of exposure of the receptor to the hazard
92
Risk Final
Release Analysis
This method is suitable for:

• Many types of chemical and release types (short or long term).
• Estimating the variation of responses from different members of the population

(adults, children, seniors).
• Determining consequence level for time varying concentrations and radiation

intensities.
• Events where a number of different chemical releases have occurred.
93
Risk Final
Release Analysis
PROBITS for Various Hazardous Material Exposures
PROBIT can be calculated as
Where k1 and k2 are PROBIT parameters and V is the causative variable

that is representative of the magnitude of the exposure.
94
Risk Final
Release Analysis
PROBITS for Various Hazardous Material Exposures

Type of Injury/Damage Causative Variable (V) k1 k2
FIRE
Burn death from flash fire (te Ie)^( (4/3)/104) -14.9 2.56
Burn death from pool fire (t I)^( (4/3)/104) -14.9 2.56
EXPLOSION te – effective time duration [s]

Death from lung haemorrhage P0 -77.1 6.91
Eardrum rupture P0 -15.6 1.93 Ie – effective radiation intensity [W m-2]
Death from impact -46.1 4.82 t – time duration of the pool fire [s]
J
Injuries from impact J -39.1 4.45 I – radiation intensity from pool fire [W m-2]
Injuries from flying fragments J -27.1 4.26
Structural Damage -23.1 2.92
P0 P0 – overpressure [N m-2]
TOXIC RELEASE J – impact [N s m-2]
Carbon Monoxide death ΣC1T -37.98 3.7
Chlorine death ΣC2T -8.29 0.92
C – concentration [ppm]
Nitrogen Dioxide death ΣC2T -13.79 1.4
Sulphur Dioxide death -15.67 1.0 T – time interval [min]
ΣC1T
Toluene death ΣC2.5T -6.79 0.41
95
Risk Final
Release Analysis
PROBIT and Probability
The relationship between

probability and PROBIT
is shown in the plot.
PROBIT
Percentage
96
Risk Final
Release Analysis
The sigmoid curve

can be used to
estimate probability or
PROBIT. Alternatively,
this table can be used.
97
Risk Final
Release Analysis

PERCENTAGE
The sigmoid curve

can be used to
estimate probability or
PROBIT. Alternatively,
this table can be used.
PROBIT
98
Risk Final
Release Analysis

PERCENTAGE
If the PROBIT is known as
Y = 5.10, then the associated
percentage is 54.
OR
If the percentage is 12%, then

the PROBIT is 3.82.
PROBIT
99
Risk Final
Release Analysis
As an alternative to using the table to calculate percent probability, the

conversion can also be calculated with the following equation:
Where erf is the error function.
PROBIT equations assumes exposure to the accident occurred in a distribution of

adults, children and seniors. Variability in the response in different individuals is
accounted for in the error function.
100
Risk Final
Release Analysis
PROBIT and Probability – Example 1
Determine the percentage of people that will die from burns caused by a
pool fire. The PROBIT value for this fire is 4.39.
Solution 1
Using the PROBIT table, the percentage is 27%.
Solution 2
Using the PROBIT equation, we can solve for P with Y=4.39. The error function can
be found using spreadsheets available in the literature.
101
Risk Final
Release Analysis
Data has been reported on the effect of explosion overpressures on

eardrum ruptures in humans.
Percent Affected Peak Overpressure (N m-2)
1 16,500
10 19,300
50 43,500
90 84,300
Confirm the PROBIT variable for this exposure type.

102
Risk Final
Release Analysis
Solution
Convert the percentage to the PROBIT variable using the PROBIT table.
Percent Affected Peak Overpressure (N m-2) PROBIT
1 16,500 2.67
10 19,300 3.72
50 43,500 5.00
90 84,300 6.28
103
Risk Final
Release Analysis
Damage Effect Estimates
The damage caused by exposure to hazardous material release can be

estimated for various levels of overpressure or radiation intensity. These
damage effects are summarised in tables.
It is important to note, damage effect estimates are NOT suitable for

releases with rapid concentration fluctuations.
104
Risk Final
Release Analysis
Damage Effect Estimates – Radiation Intensity

Radiation Intensity (kW m-2) Observed Damage Effect
37.5 Sufficient to cause damage to process equipment
25 Minimum energy required to ignite wood at indefinitely long exposures
12.5 Minimum energy required for piloted ignition of wood, melting of plastic tubing
9.5 Pain threshold reached after 8 seconds; second degree burns after 20 seconds
Sufficient to cause pain to personnel if unable to reach cover within 20 seconds; however, blistering of the
4
skin is likely (second degree burn) ; 0% lethality
1.6 Will cause no discomfort for long exposure
105
Risk Final
Release Analysis
Overpressure
Psig kPa
Observed Damage Effect
Damage Effect Estimates –
0.02 0.14 Annoying noise (137 dB if of low frequency, 10–15 Hz)
0.03
0.04
0.21
0.28
Occasional breaking of large glass windows already under
Loud noise (143 dB), sonic boom, glass failure
Overpressure
0.1 0.69 Breakage of small windows under strain
0.15 1.03 Typical pressure for glass breakage
0.3 2.07 “Safe distance” (probability 0.95 of no serious damage below this value); projectile limit; some damage to house ceilings; 10% window glass broken
0.4 2.76 Limited minor structural damage
0.5–1.0 3.4–6.9 Large and small windows usually shatter; occasional damage to window frames
0.7 4.8 Minor damage to house structures
1 6.9 Partial demolition of houses, made uninhabitable
Corrugated asbestos shatters; corrugated steel or aluminum panels, fastenings fail, followed by buckling; wood panels (standard housing), fastenings
1–2 6.9–13.8
fail, panels blow in
1.3 9 Steel frame of clad building slightly distorted
2 13.8 Partial collapse of walls and roofs of houses
2–3 13.8–20.7 Concrete or cinder block walls, not reinforced, shatter
2.3 15.8 Lower limit of serious structural damage
2.5 17.2 50% destruction of brickwork of houses
3 20.7 Heavy machines (3000 lb) in industrial buildings suffer little damage; steel frame buildings distort and pull away from foundations
3–4 20.7–27.6 Frameless, self-framing steel panel buildings demolished; rupture of oil storage tanks
4 27.6 Cladding of light industrial buildings ruptures
5 34.5 Wooden utility poles snap; tall hydraulic presses (40,000 lb) in buildings slightly damaged
5–7 34.5–48.2 Nearly complete destruction of houses
7 48.2 Loaded train wagons overturned
7–8 48.2–55.1 Brick panels, 8–12 in thick, not reinforced, fail by shearing or flexure
9 62 Loaded train boxcars completely demolished
10 68.9 Probable total destruction of buildings; heavy machine tools (7000 lb) moved and badly damaged, very heavy machine tools (12,000 lb) survive
300 2068 Limit of crater lip
106
Risk Final
Release Analysis
Damage Effect Estimates - Example
One thousand kilograms of methane escapes from a storage vessel,

mixes with air and then explodes. The overpressure resulting from this
release is 25 kPa. What are the consequences of this accident?
107
Risk Final
Release Analysis
Damage Effect Estimates - Example
One thousand kilograms of methane escapes from a storage vessel,

mixes with air and then explodes. The overpressure resulting from this
release is 25 kPa. What are the consequences of this accident?
Solution
Using the table on Observed Damage Effects table – an overpressure of
25 kPa will cause the steel panels of a building to be demolished.
108

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What are the main concepts discussed in the document?

What are the main concepts discussed in the document?

What factors determine the risk from an undesirable event?

What factors determine the risk from an undesirable event?

Hazardous Modelling Quantitative

Hazard – An intrinsic chemical, physical, societal, economic or political

Examples of intrinsic hazards:

Risk – A measure of human injury, environmental damage or economic loss in

Risk = Consequence x Frequency

Intrinsic Undesirable Consequences

Intrinsic Undesirable Consequences

Concept Deﬁnitions Layers of Protection are used to

where k is each receptor (ie. people, equipment, the

Deﬁne the System

Deﬁne the System

iii. Quantitative Risk Assessment

Hazard effects can be caused by the release of hazardous material

Hazardous materials are typically contained in storage or process vessels

Release of Solid Hazardous Material

The release is signiﬁcant if the solid is:

Release of Liquids or Gases from Containment

Release from containment will result in:

• an instantaneous release if there is a major failure

• a semi-continuous release if a hole develops in a vessel

Unpressurised Liquid Discharge From

Liquid Release from a Pressurised Storage Tank

Pressurised storage tanks containing liqueﬁed gas are of

- A rapid ﬂash-off of material.

- The formation of a two-phase jet which could create a liquid pool

- Formation of small droplets which could form a cloud that is denser

Liquid Release from a Pressurised Storage Tank

Rapid Flash-off and Cooling

Large Liquid Droplets Evaporating Liquid Pool

Outdoor Temperature < Normal Boiling Point of Liquid 15

where and are the mean heat capacity and

Consequences of Liquid Release from a Pressurised Storage Tank

Flammable Liquid Release No ignition = toxic health issues

Hazardous Events and Concerns

Modelling the Effects of a Hazardous Material Release

The type of hazard will determine hazard effect:

The probability of effect, P, can be calculated at a receptor.

We will focus on effect modelling for combustion sources:

• Combustion is the rapid exothermic oxidation of an ignited fuel.

Essential Elements for Combustion

Oxidizer Ignition Source

Examples: Wood, air, matches or

Essential Elements for Combustion

Oxidiser Ignition Source

Methods for controlling combustion are focused on eliminating

More Combustion Deﬁnitions

Overpressure – The pressure of an explosion above atmospheric pressure; more

Types of Fire and Explosion Hazards

Fires vs. Explosion Hazards

• Fires AND explosions involve combustion – physical explosions are an

Major Fires Explosions

Explosions can cause a lung haemorrhage,

Modelling Major Fires

100% Fatalities Due