UTS Pohon Keputusan
UTS Pohon Keputusan
UTS Pohon Keputusan
3-28 In Problem 3-27, Farm Grown, Inc. has reason to believe the probabilities may not be
reliable due to changing conditions. If these probabilities are ignored, what decision would
be made using the optimistic criterion? What decision would be made using the pessimistic
criterion?
100 200 300 EMV Optimistic Pessimistic
100 100 900 800 900 1000 800
0
200 800 200 190 1610 2000 800
0 0
300 600 180 300 1800 3000 600
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0 0
Probabilit 0.3 0.4 0.3 Produce 300 Produce 300 Produce 100
y cases cases cases
Optimistic - Farm Grown. Inc. must produce 300 cases each day to gain maximum
profit of $3000.
Pessimistic - Farm Grown. Inc. can choose to produce 100 cases and get maximum
profit of $800 and need to continue borrowing from the competitors to meet the
demand in case out of stock.
3-29 Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling Products, which produces a variety of
specialty Valves for oil equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has caused demand to
increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility.
Three locations are being considered and the size of the facility would not be the same in
each location. Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the
total monthly cost (in $1,000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The
probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30%
for medium demand, and 50% for high demand.
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Tx
Lake 110 120 130 110 130
Charles, LA
Probability 0.20 0.30 0.5
(c) Which location would be selected based on the minimax regret criterion?
(d) Which location should be selected to minimize the expected cost of operation?
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Sweetwater, Tx 5 0 10 10 0.2(5) + 0.3
(0) + 0.5 (10)
=6
Lake Charles, 25 20 0 25 0.2(25) + 0.3
LA (20) + 0.5 (0)
=11
Probability 0.20 0.30 0.5
= 112-118
= -6
3-30 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan
Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gas station. Susan’s
problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on
both the size of the station and a number of marketing factors related to oil industry and
demand for gasoline. After careful analysis, Susan developed the following table
For Example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a
profit of $50 000.
Size of first station Good market Fair market Poor market Optimistic
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Small 50 000 20 000 -10 000 50 000
Medium 80 000 30 000 -20 000 80 000
Large 100 000 30 000 -40 000 100 000
Very large 300 000 25 000 -160 000 300 000
Size of first station Good market Fair market Poor market Pessimistic
Small 50 000 20 000 -10 000 -10 000
Medium 80 000 30 000 -20 000 -20 000
Large 100 000 30 000 -40 000 -40 000
Very large 300 000 25 000 -160 000 -160 000
Size of first station Good market Fair market Poor market Equally likely decision
Small 50 000 20 000 -10 000 20 000
Medium 80 000 30 000 -20 000 30 000
Large 100 000 30 000 -40 000 30 000
Very large 300 000 25 000 -160 000 55 000
Size of first station Good market Fair market Poor market Criterion of realism
decision
Small 50 000 20 000 -10 000 0.8 ( 50 000) + 0.2 (-10
000)
= 38 000
Medium 80 000 30 000 -20 000 0.8 ( 80 000) + 0.2 (-20
000)
= 60 000
Large 100 000 30 000 -40 000 0.8 ( 100 000) + 0.2 (-
40 000)
= 72 000
Very large 300 000 25 000 -160 000 0.8 300 000) + 0.2 (-
160 000)
= 208 000
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= 220 000 =0 = 10 000
Large 300 00 - 100 000 30 000- 30 000 -10 000 – (-40 000)
= 200 000 =0 = 30 000
Very large 300 000 – 300 25 000 – 30 000 -10 000 – (-160
000 = 5 000 000)
=0 = 150 000
3-31 Beverly Mills has decided to lease a hybrid car to save on gasoline expenses and to do
her part to help keep the environment clean. The car she selected is available from only one
dealer in the local area, but that dealer has several leasing options to accommodate a
variety of driving patterns. All the leases are for 3 years and require no money at the time of
signing the lease. The first option has a monthly cost of $330, a total mileage allowance of
36,000 miles (an average of 12,000 miles per year), and a cost of $0.35 per mile for any miles
over 36,000. The following table summarizes each of the three lease options:
Beverly has estimated that, during the 3 years of the lease, there is a 40% chance she will
drive an average of 12,000 miles per year, a 30% chance she will drive an average of 15,000
miles per year, and a 30% chance that she will drive 18,000 miles per year. In evaluating
these lease options, Beverly would like to keep her costs as low as possible.
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(a) Develop a payoff (cost) table for this situation.
(d) What decision would Beverly make if she wanted to minimize her expected cost
(monetary value)?
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= 14 715
Option 2 13 680 13 680 15 930 0.4 (13 680) + 0.3 (13 680) + 0.3
45 000 (15 930)
= 14 355
Option 3 15 480 15 480 15 480 0.4 (15 480 ) + 0.3 (15 480 ) +
54 000 0.3 (15 480)
= 15 480
Probabilit 0.4 0.3 0.3
y
(f) Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this problem.
= [ 0.4 (11 880) + 0.3 (13 680) + 0.3 (15 480) ] – 14 355
= 13 500 - 14 355
= -855
Note this problem is based on costs, so the minimum values are the best.1. For a 3-year
lease, there are 36 months of payments.
Excess mileage costs based on 36,000 mileage allowance for Option 1, 45,000 for Option 2,
and 54,000 for option 3.
Option 1 excess mileage cost if 45,000 miles are driven = (45000 – 36000)(0.35) = 3150
Option 1 excess mileage cost if 54,000 miles are driven = (54000 – 36000)(0.35) = 6300
Option 2 excess mileage cost if 54,000 miles are driven = (54000 – 45000)(0.25) = 2250
The total cost for each option in each state of nature is obtained by adding the total monthly
payment cost to the excess mileage cost.
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