Understanding Transgender Issues: Suicide Risk
Understanding Transgender Issues: Suicide Risk
Understanding Transgender Issues: Suicide Risk
Executive Summary
Transgender activists often assert that affirming the preferred “gender identity” of transgender
persons and providing them with access to cross-sex hormones and surgeries is essential to
preventing them from committing suicide. Activists claim suicidality and other mental health
problems result from transphobia, stigma and discrimination, as well as a lack of support or
affirmation by others of a person’s self-perceived gender identity. Moreover, parents of gender-
confused children are often pressured to collude with their child’s self-declared “gender identity”
fantasy and are accused of contributing to their child’s suicidality if they do not.
However, if societal factors such as discrimination or lack of collusion and affirmation were the
major contributors to transgender suicidality, we would expect suicide rates to be lower in
communities where transgender identities are supported and affirmed and higher where they are
not—but that is not what research shows.
There is no research showing that either cross-sex social affirmation or medical procedures have
reduced suicides among those who identify as transgender. In fact, key studies have provided
some evidence that social, medical and surgical affirmation of cross-sex identities might actually
increase suicidality instead. Further, underlying mental health conditions that may contribute to
the dysphoria of transgender people have largely been left untreated, and they often have been
denied the help they really need as it has become politically incorrect to imply there could be any
kind of link between mental illness and gender dysphoria.
Although all suicide threats should be taken seriously, such threats have sometimes been used by
youth and health care providers, as a form of manipulation to coerce parents into allowing their
children to receive life-altering transgender medical procedures. The threat of transgender
individuals committing suicide is often used as a reason to enact policies that impose forced
affirmation of transgender identities.
• The 2015 U.S. Transgender Survey (published by the National Center for Transgender
Equality) reported that among the transgender population,
• Forty percent (40%) have attempted suicide in their lifetime, almost nine times the
rate in the U.S. population (4.6%);
• Seven percent (7%) attempted suicide in the past year—almost twelve times the
rate in the U.S. population (0.6%).2
• The National Transgender Discrimination Survey (NTDS) of 6,450 persons who self-
identify as transgender published in 2011 found that 41 percent said they had attempted
suicide, versus 1.6 percent of the general public.3 Five years later, one of its authors
acknowledged that “the statistic about suicide attempts has, in essence, developed a life
of its own. It has had several key audiences—academics and researchers, public
policymakers, and members of the community, particularly transgender people and our
families.”4
Valid criticism has been made of estimates of transgender suicidality. For example, data like that
from the U.S. National Transgender Survey are based on a “convenience sample” of online
volunteers, a method which does not produce a representative sample of the population.
The 2015-2016 California Health Interview Survey, which was a representative survey, found,
“Transgender adults were nearly six times more likely to report having ever attempted suicide …
(22 percent versus 4 percent)”5—a rate still much higher than the general population, but well
below the often-cited 41 percent in the NTDS.
Hacsi Horváth, an expert in clinical epidemiology, a lecturer at the University of California, San
Francisco, and a former transgender person who “detransitioned” (that is, returned to identifying
with his biological sex) points to a similar survey of adolescents. The survey did not explicitly
ask respondents whether they identified as transgender, but it did identify a population who were
“highly gender non-conforming,” which could be used as a proxy for transgender status. Among
this group, only 3% of girls and 2% of boys reported having attempted suicide.6
• Suicide “planning” (considering how, when and where one might commit suicide);
• Suicide “attempts” (which may be spontaneous or planned, may not result in serious
injury, and in some cases, may be an effort to gain attention rather than actually to end
one’s life);
Parental Support
Pressure is particularly placed upon parents to be fully affirming of a transgender child’s desire
to be recognized as another gender identity. Parents are often explicitly threatened that if they do
not unquestioningly accept and fully affirm their child’s gender confusion, the child will commit
suicide. For example, a therapist will ask parents of a biological male, “Would you rather have a
dead son or a live daughter?”10 Although some studies have purported to show mental health
benefits to children supported in a “gender transition”11 by their parents, the methodology of
these studies has also been widely criticized, calling the validity of their conclusions into
question. Michael Bailey and Ray Blanchard, both Ph.D.s, concluded, “It serves … parents
poorly to exaggerate the likelihood of their children’s suicide, or to assert that suicide or
suicidality would be the parents’ fault.”12
Co-founder of Advocates Protecting Children Maria Keffler puts her critique more strongly:
Nothing about that guidance is supported by research, data, or long-understood principles
of child development, but this emotional manipulation coerces parents like the
thumbscrews of a torture device, terrorizing them with the idea that unless they capitulate
to the transgender industry’s demands, they will inevitably lose their child.13
Conclusion
Every suicide threat—particularly from a child or adolescent—should be taken seriously.
However, the claim that affirmation of a transgender identity—both socially and with invasive
medical procedures—is the only way to prevent suicides is not supported by the evidence. Rates
of reported suicidality among transgender-identified individuals remain high even among those
who live in affirming communities and who have received gender transition medical
interventions. There is no compelling evidence showing that social affirmation or cross-sex
medical interventions for trans-identifying persons will improve their mental health or reduce
this risk of suicide, and there is some evidence that such affirmation or interventions may
increase that risk.
These findings have significant policy implications. Increasingly, legislatures and policymaking
bodies across the world are being required to grapple with what could appropriately be called
“forced-affirmation” legislation or policies. These well-meaning but ill-advised forced-
affirmation mandates seek to force all persons to collude with and “affirm” the confused mental
state of trans-identifying persons and can include:
• Mandates forcing the use of cross-sex or newly created pronouns when referring to trans-
identifying persons. (The New York City Commission on Human Rights recognizes 31
different genders,41 and a person can be fined up to $250,000 for knowingly
“misgendering” a person by referring to them according to their biological sex instead of
using their preferred pronoun.42)
• Mandates requiring parents to “affirm” their child’s wrong-sex identity and to facilitate
the administration of puberty blockers or cross-sex hormonal interventions or surgeries to
their trans-identifying child or potentially lose custody. (A tragic example of this was the
2019 suicide of a 16-year-old girl who was affirmed by her school in the wrong sex and
was placed in foster care to facilitate her gender transition, despite the strong protests of
her mother.44)
• Mandates requiring female sports teams to allow males who identify as women to
compete on their teams.45
And while opposition to “forced affirmation” policies has largely been based on the harm such
policies can do to the persons who are forced to affirm transgender identities, the evidence
presented in this brief shows that sadly, such forced affirmation policies may harm the very
people they are designed to help. Such policies may lead to more suicidality, not less.
No one—whether a parent, politician, or citizen—should be manipulated by the misleading
claims that colluding with a fantasized alternative gender identity that is alien to a person’s
biological sex will protect them from committing suicide. Indeed, the very opposite may be true.
1
Haas, A. P., Rodgers, P. L., Herman, J. L. (2014). Suicide attempts among transgender and gender non-conforming
adults. American Foundation for Suicide Prevention and The Williams Institute. http://stopsuicide.ch/wp-
content/uploads/2017/07/AFSP-Williams-Suicide-Report-Final.pdf
2
James, S. E., Herman, J. L., Rankin, S., Keisling, M., Mottet, L., & Anafi, M. (2016, December). The Report of the
2015 U.S. Transgender Survey. National Center for Transgender Equality. https://transequality.org/sites/default/
files/docs/usts/USTS-Full-Report-Dec17.pdf
3
Grant, J. M., Mottet, L. A., Tanis, J., Harrison, J., Herman J. L., & Keisling, M. (2011). Injustice at every turn: A
Report of the National Transgender Discrimination Survey. National Center for Transgender Equality and National
Gay and Lesbian Task Force. https://transequality.org/sites/default/files/docs/resources/NTDS_Report.pdf
4
Tanis, J. (2016). The power of 41%: A glimpse into the life of a statistic. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry,
86(4), 373–377. https://doi.org/10.1037/ort0000200
5
Herman, J. L., Wilson, B. D. M., & Becker, T. (2017, October). Demographic and health characteristics of
transgender adults in California: Findings from the 2015-2016 California Health Interview Survey. Health Policy
Brief, UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and The Williams Institute. https://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/
publications/Documents/PDF/2017/transgender-policybrief-oct2017.pdf
6
Wilson, B. D. M., et al. (2017, December). Characteristics and mental health of gender nonconforming
adolescents in California. Health Policy Fact Sheet. UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and The Williams
Institute. https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/publications/gnc-youth-ca/
7
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports, “In 2020, an estimated 12.2 million American
adults seriously thought about suicide, 3.2 million planned a suicide attempt, and 1.2 million attempted suicide.”
The number of Americans who died by suicide that year was 45,979. See: Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. (2022, May 24). Facts about suicide. https://www.cdc.gov/suicide/facts/index.html
8
Aggarwal, S., & Gerrets, R. (2014). Exploring a Dutch paradox: an ethnographic investigation of gay men's mental
health. Culture, Health & Sexuality, 16(2), 105-119. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/
13691058.2013.841290
9
Clements-Nolle, K., Marx, R., Guzman, R., & Katz, M. (2001, June). HIV prevalence risk behaviors, health care use
and mental health status of transgendered persons. American Journal of Public Health, 91(6), 915-921. https://
doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.91.6.915
10
Patria, M., & Lovett, E. (2011, August 29). Transgender kids pioneer early changes to identity, body:
Controversial practice rests on research positing boy brains and girl brains. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/
Health/transgender-kids-pioneer-early-identity-body/story?id=14404963
11
“Gender transition” is the process whereby a person goes from publicly identifying with his or her biological sex
to publicly identifying with a psychological “gender identity” different from that (often, but not always, identifying
with the opposite sex). Gender transition can be limited to a “social transition” (changing name, pronouns,
clothing, and hair style, without any physical change to the body), or it can encompass a “medical transition”
(which may involve the use of puberty-blocking drugs, cross-sex hormones, or “gender reassignment surgery” to
alter the appearance and sex-related physical characteristics of the body).
12
Bailey, J. M., & Blanchard, R. (2017, September 8). Suicide or transition: The only options for gender dysphoric
kids? 4thWaveNow. https://4thwavenow.com/2017/09/08/suicide-or-transition-the-only-options-for-gender-
dysphoric-kids/
13
Keffler, M. (2020, May 22). Scaring parents of trans kids with suicide shuts down their ability to consider options
for their kids. The Federalist. https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/22/scaring-parents-of-trans-kids-with-suicide-
shuts-down-their-ability-to-consider-options-for-their-kids/
14
McHugh, P. (2004, November). Surgical Sex. First Things, (147), 35, 38.
15
Jensen, T. S., Chin, J., Rollins, J., Koller, E., Gousis, L., & Szarama, K. (2016, August 30). Gender dysphoria and
gender reassignment surgery (National Coverage Analysis Decision Memo CAG-00446N). Centers for Medicare &
Medicaid Services, 62. https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/view/ncacal-decision-memo.aspx?
proposed=N&NCAId=282
16
McHugh, P. (2020, June 1). Interrogating the transgender agenda: A psychiatrist questions the scientific and
medical basis for current treatments of gender dysphoria. MercatorNet. https://mercatornet.com/interrogating-
the-transgender-agenda/63387/
17
Shute, J. (2018, October 22). The new taboo: More people regret sex change and want to ‘detransition’, surgeon
says. The Telegraph. https://nationalpost.com/news/world/the-new-taboo-more-people-regret-sex-change-and-
want-to-detransition-surgeon-says
18
The Endocrine Society, in their pro-transgender Guidelines, concedes, “Surgery that affects fertility is
irreversible.” See: Hembree, W. C., Cohen-Kettenis, P. T., Gooren, L., Hannema, S. E., Meyer, W. J., Murad, M. H.,
Rosenthal, S. M., Safer, J. D., Tangpricha, V., & T’Sjoen, G. G. (2017, November). Endocrine treatment of gender-
dysphoric/gender-incongruent persons: An Endocrine Society clinical practice guideline. Journal of Clinical
Endocrinology & Metabolism, 102(11), 3893. https://doi.org/10.1210/jc.2017-01658
19
Even Marci (formerly Mark) Bowers, a surgeon who is transgender, has expressed concern about this. See:
Emmons, L. (2022, May 1). 'Gender affirming' surgeon admits children who undergo transition before puberty
NEVER attain sexual satisfaction. The Post Millennial. https://thepostmillennial.com/gender-affirming-surgeon-
admits-children-who-undergo-transition-before-puberty-never-attain-sexual-satisfaction
20
Sadjadi, S. (2013, March 14). The endocrinologist’s office—Puberty suppression: Saving children from a natural
disaster? Journal of Medical Humanities 34, 255–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10912-013-9228-6
21
Turban, J. L., King, D., Carswell, J. M., & Keuroghlian, A. S. (2020, February). Pubertal suppression for transgender
youth and risk of suicidal ideation. Pediatrics 145(2), e20191725. https://doi.org/10.1542%2Fpeds.2019-1725
22
Sprigg, P. (2017, February 16). Don’t be misled by National Geographic and Katie Couric: Three things to know
about ‘gender identity.’ FRC Blog. http://frcblog.com/2017/02/dont-be-misled-national-geographic-and-katie-
couric-three-things-know-about-gender-identity/
23
Turban, et al. (2020).
24
Field, S. S. (2020, February). RE: Pubertal suppression for transgender youth and risk of suicidal ideation.
Pediatrics 145(2), e20191725. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/145/2/e20191725/tab-e-letters#re-
pubertal-suppression-for-transgender-youth-and-risk-of-suicidal-ideation
25
Dhejne, C., Lichtenstein, P., Boman, M., Johansson, A. L. V., Långström, N., & Landén, M. (2011). Long-term
follow-up of transsexual persons undergoing sex reassignment surgery: Cohort study in Sweden. PLOS One, 6(2),
e16885. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016885
26
Bränström, R., & Pachankis, J. E. (2019, October 4). Reduction in mental health treatment utilization among
transgender individuals after gender-affirming surgeries: a total population study. American Journal of Psychiatry
177(8), 727-734. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2019.19010080
27
In 2015, there were 13 hospitalizations after suicide attempts in the 1,018 subjects that had surgery; there were
seven hospitalizations among the 1,018 subjects who did not have surgery. See: Bränström, R., & Pachankis, J. E.
(2020, August 1). Toward rigorous methodologies for strengthening causal inference in the association between
gender-affirming care and transgender individuals’ mental health: response to letters. American Journal of
Psychiatry, 177(8), Table 1, 72. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2020.20050599
28
Batty, D. (2004, July 30). Sex changes are not effective, say researchers. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.
com/society/2004/jul/30/health.mentalhealth
29
Chu, A. L. (2018, November 24). My new vagina won’t make me happy: And it shouldn’t have to. The New York
Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/24/opinion/sunday/vaginoplasty-transgender-medicine.html
30
Turban, et al. (2020).
31
Ring, A. (2020, February). RE: Pubertal suppression for transgender youth and risk of suicidal ideation. Pediatrics
145(2), e20191725. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/145/2/e20191725/tab-e-letters#re-pubertal-
suppression-for-transgender-youth-and-risk-of-suicidal-ideation
32
Greene, J. P. (2022, June 13). Puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and youth suicide (Backgrounder No. 3712).
Heritage Foundation, Center for Education Policy. https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2022-
06/BG3712_0.pdf
33
Jensen, T. S., Chin, J., Rollins, J., Koller, E., Gousis, L., & Szarama, K. (2016, August 30). Gender dysphoria and
gender reassignment surgery (National Coverage Analysis Decision Memo CAG-00446N). Centers for Medicare &
Medicaid Services, 62. https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/view/ncacal-decision-memo.aspx?
proposed=N&NCAId=282
34
Bränström & Pachankis. (2020).
35
Caruso, K. (n.d.). Suicide causes. http://www.suicide.org/suicide-causes.html
36
Canadian Gender Report. (2020, November 12). The Swedish U-turn on gender transitioning for children.
https://genderreport.ca/the-swedish-u-turn-on-gender-transitioning/
37
Sullivan, A. (2019, November 1). The hard questions about young people and gender transitions. New York
Magazine. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/11/andrew-sullivan-hard-questions-gender-transitions-for-
young.html
38
Keenan, J. (2019, April 1). ‘Doctor’ advises threatening suicide to get transgender treatments for kids. The
Federalist. https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/01/doctor-advises-threatening-suicide-get-transgender-treatments-
kids/
39
Bailey & Blanchard (2017).
40
Horváth, H. (2018, December 19). The theatre of the body: A detransitioned epidemiologist examines suicidality,
affirmation, and transgender identity,” 4thWaveNow. https://4thwavenow.com/2018/12/19/the-theatre-of-the-
body-a-detransitioned-epidemiologist-examines-suicidality-affirmation-and-transgender-identity/
41
Hasson, P. (2016, May 24). New York City lets you choose from 31 different gender identities. Daily Caller.
https://dailycaller.com/2016/05/24/new-york-city-lets-you-choose-from-31-different-gender-identities/
42
New York City Commission on Human Rights. (2019, February 15). Gender identity/gender expression: Legal
enforcement guidance. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/cchr/law/legal-guidances-gender-identity-expression.page
43
Masterson, M. (2020, February 19). Lawsuit: Female prisoner says she was raped by transgender inmate. WTTW.
https://news.wttw.com/2020/02/19/lawsuit-female-prisoner-says-she-was-raped-transgender-inmate; Ferrechio,
S. (2022, April 14). Two inmates impregnated by transgender inmate at all-women’s prison in New Jersey: Report.
The Washington Times. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/apr/14/two-inmates-impregnated-
transgender-inmate-all-wom/
44
Boswell, J. (2022, March 22). Exclusive: 'I knew the hormones wouldn't work. Why did they play with her life?'
DailyMail.com. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10612285/California-mom-claims-LA-school-
encouraged-daughter-transition-blame-suicide.html; see also video of panel discussion including mother’s
testimony at: Heritage Foundation. (2022, March 7). How radical gender ideology is taking over public schools &
harming kids. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k33KeLh8aOk
45
Barnes, K. (2022, May 6). Alabama to Wyoming: State policies on transgender athlete participation. espnW.com.
https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/32117426/state-policies-transgender-athlete-participation
46
See, e.g.: Family Research Council. (2016, May). Title IX and transgendered students. Issue Brief IF16E01.
https://downloads.frc.org/EF/EF16E32.pdf; Haynie, R., & Richey, K. M. (2022, April 19). Oklahoma’s confusing
bathroom policy: Context and legal background. Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs (OCPA). https://www.
ocpathink.org/post/oklahomas-confusing-bathroom-policy-context-and-legal-background; Gavin Grimm v.
Gloucester County School Board, 972 F.3d 586 (4th Cir. 2020). https://www.ca4.uscourts.gov/Opinions/
191952.P.pdf