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Lesson 7

The document defines conditional probability as the probability of event A given event B. It provides an example calculating the probability a person is male given they are employed using population data. Another example calculates conditional probabilities about a flight departing and arriving on time. The multiplication rule for conditional probability and the definition of independent events is outlined. Marginal probability is defined as the sum of joint probabilities over all categories of a second variable. An example calculates several probabilities using data about applicants to nursing school.

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46 views

Lesson 7

The document defines conditional probability as the probability of event A given event B. It provides an example calculating the probability a person is male given they are employed using population data. Another example calculates conditional probabilities about a flight departing and arriving on time. The multiplication rule for conditional probability and the definition of independent events is outlined. Marginal probability is defined as the sum of joint probabilities over all categories of a second variable. An example calculates several probabilities using data about applicants to nursing school.

Uploaded by

History Rose
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lesson 7

Conditional Probability
Definition
The conditional probability of A given B is equal to
the probability of A Ç B divided by the
probability of B, providing the probability of B is
not zero. That is

𝐏(𝐀 ∩ 𝐁)
𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑩) =
𝐏(𝐁)
provided P(B) > 0.
Example
Table below shows a population of adults in a small city
categorized according to gender and employment status.

Employed Unemployed Total


Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900

One person is selected at random what is the probability


that this person is male given that he is employed?
Solution

M: the one chosen is a male

E: the one chosen is employed.


𝒏(𝑴 ∩ 𝑬)
𝑷(𝐌 ∩ 𝑬) 𝒏(𝑺) 𝒏(𝑴 ∩ 𝑬)
𝐏(𝐌|𝐄) = = =
𝑷(𝑬) 𝒏(𝑬) 𝒏(𝑬)
𝒏(𝑺)
𝟒𝟔𝟎 𝟐𝟑
= =
𝟔𝟎𝟎 𝟑𝟎
Example

The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs


on time is 𝐏 𝐃 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟑;
the probability that it arrives on time is 𝐏 𝑨 = 𝟎. 𝟖2;
and the probability that it
departs and arrives on time is 𝐏 𝐃 ∩ 𝐀 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖. Find the
probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time given that it departed on time,
(b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time.
Multiplication Rule
Theorem
If in an experiment the events A and B can both
occur, then :
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨)𝑷(𝑩 ∣ A).
provided P(A) > 0.

Thus the probability that both A and B occur is


equal to the probability that A occurs multiplied by
the conditional probability that B occurs, given that
A occurs.
Independent Events

Two events A and B are said to be


independent if the occurrence of one of them
has no effect on the occurrence of the other.
In practice
Independent Trials
qTosses of a coin
qRolls of a die
qDraws with replacement

Dependent Trials
qDraws Cards from a deck
qDraws without replacement
Multiplication rule for Independent Events

If two events A and B are independent then

1. 𝐏 𝐀 ∩ 𝐁 = 𝐏 𝐀 𝐏 𝐁

2. 𝐏 𝐀 ∣ 𝐁 = 𝐏 𝐀

3. 𝐏(𝐁 ∣ 𝐀) = 𝐏(𝐁 )
Example
In a population of people with a certain disease, let
M=“Men” and S=“suffer from certain disease”

• Complete the Venn diagram


If we randomly choose one
person Find the probability
that this person
1. Is a man and suffer from certain disease
2. Is a woman
3. Is a woman that does not suffer from certain disease
4. Does not suffering from a certain disease
Solution 0.38

• Complete the Venn diagram

1. Is a man and suffer from certain disease


𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝑆 = 0.34
2. Is a woman
𝑃 𝑀! = 0.38 + 0.03 = 0.41
Or
𝑃 𝑀! = 1 − 𝑃 𝑀 = 1 − 0.25 + 0.34 = 0.41
3. Is a woman that does not suffer from certain disease
𝑃 𝑀! ∩ 𝑆 ! = 0.38
4. Does not suffering from a certain disease
𝑃 𝑆 ! = 0.25 + 0.38 = 0.63
Marginal probability

Given some variable that can be broken down into 𝒎


categories designated 𝒃𝒚 𝑨𝟏 , 𝑨𝟐 , … , 𝑨𝒎 and another jointly
occurrence variable that is broken down into n categories
designated by 𝑩𝟏 , 𝑩𝟐 , … , 𝑩𝒏 , the marginal probability of
𝑨𝒊 called 𝑷 𝑨𝒊 , is equal to the sum of the joint
probabilities of 𝑨𝒊 with all categories of 𝑩. That is:

𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ) = B 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋 ) , 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒋.


Marginal probability

Given some variable that can be broken down into 𝒎


categories designated 𝒃𝒚 𝑨𝟏 , 𝑨𝟐 , … , 𝑨𝒎 and another jointly
occurrence variable that is broken down into n categories
designated by 𝑩𝟏 , 𝑩𝟐 , … , 𝑩𝒏 , the marginal probability of
𝑨𝒊 called 𝑷 𝑨𝒊 , is equal to the sum of the joint
probabilities of 𝑨𝒊 with all categories of 𝑩. That is:

𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ) = B 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋 ) , 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒋.


Example
The following table shows 1000 nursing school applicants
classified according to scores made on a college entrance
examination and the quality of the high school form which
they graduated, as rated by the group of educators.
Quality of high school

Poor (p) Average (A) Superior (S) total

Low(L) 105 60 55 220


Score

Medium(M) 70 175 145 390


High(H) 25 65 300 390

total 200 300 500 1000


Example
1. How many marginal probabilities can be calculated from
these data? State each probability notation and do
calculations.
2. Calculate the probability that an applicant picked at
random from this group:
a) Made a low score on the examination
b) Graduated from superior high school.
c) Made a low score on the examination given that he or she
graduated from Superior high school;
d) Made a high score or graduated from a superior high
school.
Solution
1. How many marginal probabilities can be calculated from
these data? State each probability notation and do
calculations.
There are 6 marginal probabilities,

𝑷(𝑳), 𝑷(𝑴), 𝑷(𝑯), 𝑷(𝒑), 𝑷(𝑨), 𝑷(𝑺).


a) Prob. The applicant Made a low score on the
examination

𝟐𝟐𝟎
𝑷 𝑳 = = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟐
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
Solution
b)Prob. The applicant Graduated from superior high
school.
𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝑷 𝑺 = = 𝟎. 𝟓
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
c) Prob. The applicant Made a low score on the
examination given that he or she graduated from
Superior high school;
𝟓𝟓
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑷 𝑳∩𝑺 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝟓𝟓
𝑷 𝑳∣𝑺 = = = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟏
𝑷 𝑺 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟓𝟎𝟎
Solution
d) Prob. The applicant Made a high score or graduated
from a superior high school.

𝑷 𝑯∪𝑺 =𝑷 𝑯 +𝑷 𝑺 −𝑷 𝑯∩𝑺
𝟑𝟗𝟎$𝟓𝟎𝟎&𝟑𝟎𝟎
= = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟗
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎

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