BON 410 (2023, Assignment 1 Question Paper)
BON 410 (2023, Assignment 1 Question Paper)
BON 410 (2023, Assignment 1 Question Paper)
Assignment 1
15 March 2023
Marks: 60
1
Question 1 [ 22 ]
Let {Xn , n ≥ 0} be a Markov chain with state space {1,2,3 }, and with a transition probability matrix P,
0.25 0.50 0.25
P = [0.10 0.70 0.20]
0.20 0.60 0.20
Given that the initial distribution, P[X0 = 1] =0.3 ; P[ X0 = 2] = 0.6; P[X0 = 3] = 0.1
(i) Find the P [X3 = 2, X2 = 3 │ X1 = 1] and P [ X3 = 1, X2 = 2, X1 =2] ,
(ii) Find P[ X3 = 2]
(iii) Find the mean number of units of time it takes to reach state 1 for the first time, when initially it started
with State 3.
(iv) Find the stationary distribution of {Xn}
Question 2 [ 13 ]
Two friends A and B appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The probability of A’s selection is
40% and that of B’s selection is70%. What is the probability that only one of them will be selected? What is the
probability that none of them will be selected?
Question 3 [ 8 ]
Three shipments of parts are received. The first shipment contains 1000 parts with 10% defectives, the
second shipment contains 2000 parts with 5% defectives and the third shipment contains 3000 parts with
4% defectives. One shipment is selected at random. Three parts are tested and found good. Find the
probability that the tested parts were selected from the first shipment.
Question 4 [ 8 ]
The probability distribution of the random variable X, X denoting the number of defective items in the sample, is given
below:
Value of X, x : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
p(x) : c 3c 5c 7c 9c 11c 13c 15c 17c
(i) Determine the value of c
(ii) Find P [ X < 3], P [X > 3], P [0 < X < 5]
(iii) What is the smallest value of a for which P [ X ≤ a ] = 0.5?
(iv) Find the mean and variance.
2
Question 5 [ 9 ]
The mileage X in thousands of kilometres which car owners get with a certain kind of tyre is random variable having
probability density function