Scotia LNG

Global Energy
PC Oil Roadmap, March 2023 Edition – Where Will European

Global Equity Research
Gas Prices Go from Here?
Daily Edge | Pre-market OUR TAKE: Positive. In this latest edition of the PC Oil Roadmap Series, we conclude that
Tuesday, April 4, 2023
2023 and 2024 European natural gas market could become even tighter than 2022 and TTF
will likely exceed the current strip prices in 2023 and 2024.
Analyst Team

Paul Y. Cheng, CFA | Analyst KEY POINTS

Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-5927
•

Cameron Bean | Analyst Tighter LNG Market Expected for 2023 and 2024. Our base case assumes that 2023 and

Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-218-6786 2024 European LNG demand relative to 2022 could be 5 bcm and 24 bcm higher than last
Jason Bouvier, CFA | Analyst year, whereas incremental global LNG supply net of China would decrease 2 bcm in 2023

Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-213-7345 and only increase 11 bcm in 2024, rendering a tighter LNG market for the next two years.
Tristan J. Richardson | Analyst

Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 713-393-4525 • Higher TTF Needed to Attract Flexible LNG Cargos into Europe. We believe the market
Kevin Fisk, CPA, CBV | Associate Analyst has not sufficiently priced in a tighter 2023-2024 global LNG market and TTF will likely
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-213-7768 exceed the current strip prices during this period.

Betty Zhang, CFA | Associate

Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-5977 • Most pre-FID Russian LNG projects Will Not Come to Fruition. Russia’s ability to
This report is intended for [email protected]. Unauthorized distribution of this report is prohibited.
Brian Zhang, CFA | Associate complete the LNG projects depends on access to finance and technologies, which is
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 347-224-3686 limited under the current sanction regime.

Austin Glenn | Associate

Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-605-0871
• Most-Exposed Names Under Our Coverage:
Joe Rikk | Associate
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-605-3327
• US Large Cap E&Ps: APA and MRO
• European IOCs: TTE, SHEL and BP
• Canadian-weighted oil: VET
• North American gas producers: TOU
• North American Infrastructure: LNG
• Upstream Project Database. Our proprietary global upstream major project database
indicates that 2022 marked the bottom of new oil project startups in this cycle.
Exhibit 1 - 2023-2024 LNG Market Supply/Demand vs 2022

2023 2024
Worse Base Best Worse Base Best
Delta vs 2022
EU Natural gas consumption 5 (5) (15) 20 10 0
Russian Pipeline Gas to EU Lose 63 38 38 63 38 38
Other Pipeline Gas to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inventory Change (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
Local Natural Gas Supply 4 4 4 8 8 8
EU LNG Demand vs 2022 40 5 -5 59 24 14
Delta vs 2022
Additional Global LNG Capacity 15 15 15 24 33 33
China LNG Demand 22 17 11 28 22 17
LNG Supply (adjusted for China) vs 2022 (7) -2 4 -3 11 17
Tight/(Loose) LNG Market vs 2022 47 7 (9) 63 13 (3)
Source: IEA; Wood Mackenzie; EIA; Entsog; BP; Scotiabank GBM estimates.
Production: April 4, 2023, 00:10 ET. Dissemination: April 4, 2023, 06:18 ET.
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures see Appendix A of this report. Analysts
employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with
FINRA in the U.S. unless otherwise noted within this report.
Daily Edge | Pre-market

2
023-2024 European Natural Gas Supply/Demand Analysis
Tighter LNG Market Expected for 2023 and 2024
The current Europe natural gas dynamic is a topic of much debate and speculation. While some argue
that heathy storage outlook due to favorable weather conditions and continued demand destruction
will drastically ease the tension in Europe’s natural gas market in 2023, which seems to be supported by
current TTF future curve, our analysis suggests that such view might be overly optimistic. In our opinion,
the need for the region to pull in flexible LNG cargoes in 2023 and 2024 could be higher than 2022, the
year in which we observed record European LNG intake. In our base case, we anticipate that 2023 and
2024 European LNG demand relative to 2022 could be 5 bcm and 24 bcm higher while assuming ending
inventories will remain at the same level of year-end 2022, whereas incremental global LNG supply
net of China would decrease 2 bcm in 2023 and only increase 11 bcm in 2024, rendering a tighter LNG
market for the next two years (Domestic consumption + net inventory changes = Local production +
pipeline gas imports + LNG imports).
Exhibit 2 - 2023-2024 LNG Market Supply/Demand vs 2022

2023 2024
Worse Base Best Worse Base Best
Delta vs 2022
EU Natural gas consumption 5 (5) (15) 20 10 0
Russian Pipeline Gas to EU Lose 63 38 38 63 38 38
Other Pipeline Gas to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inventory Change (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
Local Natural Gas Supply 4 4 4 8 8 8
EU LNG Demand vs 2022 40 5 -5 59 24 14
Delta vs 2022
Additional Global LNG Capacity 15 15 15 24 33 33
China LNG Demand 22 17 11 28 22 17
LNG Supply (adjusted for China) vs 2022 (7) -2 4 -3 11 17
Tight/(Loose) LNG Market vs 2022 47 7 (9) 63 13 (3)
Source: IEA; Wood Mackenzie; EIA; Entsog; BP; Scotiabank GBM estimates.
What does it mean for the current TTF Prices?
TTF prices dropped by ~84% since their August 2022 highs to below pre-Ukraine war level as of end
of March. Current storage level stands well-over their seasonally adjusted long-term average driven
by demand destruction, a near record warm winter and surging LNG supplies partly benefited from
significant volumes redirected from China last year. While the contango structure through 2024
indicates higher TTF prices going forward, the market has not sufficiently priced in a tighter 2023-2024
global LNG market in our opinion.
To put into perspective, since the war started through the end of 2022, TTF averaged ~$43/MMBtu
compared to averaged $17/MMBtu from now through end of 2024 suggested by the TTF futures curve.
If our expectation for LNG supply/demand in the next 20 months materializes, we think TTF will likely
exceed the current strip prices in 2023 and 2024.

Global Equity Research 2

Exhibit
3 - TTF Prices ($/MMBtu)
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$/MMBtu
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Source: Bloomberg; Scotiabank GBM.
Exhibit 4 - TTF Futures ($/MMBtu)
$20
$19
$18
$17
$/MMBtu
$16
$15
$14
$13
$12
Jul-23
Jul-24
Nov-23
Apr-24
May-24
Nov-24
Apr-23
Aug-23
Jun-24
Sep-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
May-23
Jun-23
Mar-24
Jan-24
Oct-23
Oct-24
In addition, current price structure does not offer sufficient incentive to compete away price sensitive
Asian buyers for the flexible destination LNG cargos. For instance, the European Union imported slightly
over 130 bcm of LNG in 2022, or ~60% higher than the 80 bcm imported in the prior year. Much of the
increase was met by supply from the US Gulf Coast that was initially targeting the Asian market but
subsequently snapped up by the European importer due to the large TTF-JKM premium. Based on
recent TTF-JKM price differential, we think the US Gulf Coast LNG netback economics now favor the
Asian market. It would be challenging for the European market to attract enough flexible LNG cargos
to fill the supply/demand gap. Moreover, benefited from the lifting of all their COVID restrictions, we
expect China’s economy and LNG demand will improve materially from last year level.


Exhibit
5 - TTF-JKM Diffs
$35.00
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
-$5.00
-$10.00
-$15.00
TTF-JKM
Exhibit 6 - Bloomberg Illustrative GC LNG Netback Analysis (based on futures as of 3/31)
Europe Gas
US LNG (115% Asia spot LNG
$/MMBtu Benchmark Europe netback Asia netback
Henry Hub) price (JKM)
(TTF)
April $3.05 $14.86 $11.24 $14.27 $10.18
May $3.19 $14.95 $11.19 $16.32 $12.09
June $3.46 $15.06 $11.03 $16.47 $11.96
July $3.70 $15.13 $10.87 $16.68 $11.93
August $3.74 $15.26 $10.95 $16.88 $12.10
September $3.69 $15.45 $11.19 $17.16 $12.43
Europe Natural Gas Consumption
Europe’s natural gas consumption fell dramatically in 2022, down by an unprecedented 55 BCM (or
13%) compared to 2021 level of ~420 BCM. A near record warm winter led to ~12% lower heating degree
days (HDDs) vs previous year that suppressed gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors.
Price-induced industrial demand destructions stemming from fuel switching (gas-to-oil) and production
curtailments across the energy insensitive industries (e.g., the fertilizer, steel, and aluminum sectors)
also drove down gas demand in the region as well as ongoing efficiency gains.
In 2023, several factors are acting in opposite direction to impact Europe natural gas demand for
our base case. Specifically, we expect gas demand to continue to moderate due to expected lower
HHDs as the continent experienced unprecedented winter heat wave entering 2023 as well as the full
year impact from 2022 efficiency and other initiatives. In addition, we think some demand reductions
through improving energy efficiency, continued expansion of renewable power generation (hydro and
nuclear), and behavior changes may be irreversible, at least over the next 2-3 years. On the other hand,
steep drop in natural gas prices is expected to spur industrial gas uses (less gas-to-oil and gas-to-coal
switches) as well as demand from residential and commercial sectors.


Exhibit
7 - Y/Y Change in Gas Demand in the European Union in 2022
Source: IEA
2023 EU natural gas consumption scenarios:
• Base case, natural gas demand in the European Union is expected to decline further by close to
363 bcm this year or ~1.4% (-5 bcm) lower than 2022 level mainly driven by lower HDDs (-10 bcm)
partially offset by some demand recoveries from the industrial segment (+5 bcm).
• Worst case, we assume demand will rise 5 bcm vs 2022 reflecting potential more meaningful
rebound in industrial gas demand. This will lead to a significant tightening in the LNG supply and
much higher TTF prices.
• Best case scenario, we forecast 15 bcm lower demand stemming from more aggressive renewable
adaptation and/or a level of permanent demand destruction.
2024 EU natural gas consumption scenarios:
• Base case, we assume demand will rebound by 10 bcm providing a more normal weather condition
(HDDs close to long-term average).
• Worst case, we assume demand will rise 20 bcm higher in 2024 vs 2022, reflecting a colder winter
weather and significantly higher gas-to-power switch.
• Best case, we assume flat 2024 demand compared with 2022 level.
Russian Pipeline Gas to Europe
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was world’s top gas exporter, roughly
three-quarters of its gas exports were targeting Europe. Since the war started, Russia cut natural gas
deliveries sharply through 2022 but still supplied ~63 BCM by pipeline (including Ukraine routes Sudzha
and Sokhranivka) to Europe over the course of the year as the Nord Stream (largest single route for
Russian pipeline gas) disruption hadn’t occurred until June last year. Before that, Russia cut off gas
supply to Estonia, Latvia, and Finland in April, May, and June, respectively, after President Putin’s
demand for ruble settlement for the country’s gas exports got denied by those European countries. In
January this year, Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe slumped to a new monthly record-low, falling
by nearly 20% from December according to our data. Today, Russia is only exporting the equivalent of


~25
bcm per year to EU countries by pipeline through Ukraine and TurkStream, or 38 bcm lower than
last year.
Based on the current geopolitical dynamic in the area, the restart of gas flow from Gazprom to some
key European importers seems exceedingly unlikely in the next 2-3 years. Even with a peace agreement
reached by the two sides that allows for the use of other gas infrastructures connecting Russia and EU,
Russian pipeline gas volumes feeding into the region would be capped by security of supply agreement
put in place by the EU countries to limit Russian gas flow. That said, the complete cutoff of Russian
pipeline gas via TurkStream and the Ukraine route does not appear to be a high probability event and
is not embedded in our base case scenario (Ukraine officials say as long as EU countries are buying
Russian gas, they will transport it; Gazprom also has the financial incentive to keep the flow intact).
Having said that, risk remains that these supplies could be cut off by the Russia government with no
advanced notice.
Exhibit 8 - Russian Pipeline Gas to EU (Excluding Ukraine Route)
8,000
7,000
6,000
Million cubic meters
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Mar-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Nov-19
Jul-20
Mar-20
Nov-20
Jul-21
Mar-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
May-18
Sep-18
May-19
Sep-19
May-20
Sep-20
May-21
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-22
Estonia Germany Estonia Latvia Republic of Türkiye Finland
Source: IEA; Scotiabank GBM.


Exhibit
9 - Daily Gas Flow for Transit from Russia to Europe in Ukraine (by entry point)
120
100
million cubic meters
80
60
40
20
0
Sokhranivka Sudzha
2023 & 2024 Russian Pipeline Gas to Europe scenarios:
• Base case, we assume Russian pipeline gas flowing into Europe will remain at current level of ~25
BCM per year in 2023 and 2024.
• Worst case, we assume a complete cutoff of Russian pipeline gas into EU as a result of further
deterioration of the situation.
• Best case, same as our base case. We assume Russian pipeline gas flowing into Europe will remain at
current level of ~25 BCM per year in 2023 and 2024.
Inventory Change
While 2022 marked the steepest natural gas consumption drop in EU history, the volumes that went
to storages were high from a historical perspective. The region started 2022 with a very low gas filling
level of barely ~54% compared to 2018 – 2021 average of ~74%, primarily reflecting the cold northern
hemisphere 2021/2022 winter and lackluster renewable power generations. In the aftermaths of the
Russia invasion, the European council adopted a regulation requesting underground gas storage on
member states’ territory must be filled to at least 80% of the capacity before winter of 2022/2023 and
90% before the following winter periods. This had led to record injection throughout the region and
resulted in a ~32 bcm build from year-end 2021 to 2022 compared to ~23 bcm release in the prior year.
Helped by a near record warm winter, EU started 2023 with an abnormally high gas refill level of ~83%
on 12/31/22 and exit winter (3/20/23) with storage level around 56% compared to ~26% in 2022 and
~31% in 2021. What this means is that the gas demand pull for storage refilling purpose observed
in 2022 will be largely absent for this year. Indeed, for the three cases of our scenario analysis, net
inventory changes for both 2023 and 2024 are expected to be zero.
2023 & 2024 Inventory Change scenarios:
• All three cases, we expect net inventory changes for both 2023 and 2024 to be zero.


Exhibit
10 - EU Natural Gas Inventory Filling Level as of 12/31/22
Source: entsog; Scotiabank GBM.


Exhibit
11 - EU Natural Gas Inventory Filling Level as of 12/31/21
Exhibit 12 - EU Gas Inventory Level


Other
Pipeline Gas to EU
We expect non-Russian pipeline volumes to be flat year over year due to the absence of any new major
gas project startup in the nearby areas over the next couple years. Norwegian piped gas flows to the
European Union are expected to remain broadly flat. Similarly, we expect Azeri gas volumes to be
relatively flat as the TAP pipeline were already near to maximum capacity in 2022.
2023 & 2024 Other Pipeline Gas to EU scenarios:
• All three cases, non-Russian pipeline gas are assumed to remain close to its 2022 levels.
Local Natural Gas Supply
Local production has become a less important contributor in fulfilling EU gas demand. 2023 natural
gas production in the European Union is expected to decline further. In the Netherlands, production
from the vast Groningen gas field will be limited at 2.8 bcm for 2023, down 4.5 bcm vs the previous
year, as the Dutch government has just confirmed last week to cease the production completely by
October 2024 despite the potential gas shortage in the region. Some production growth is expected
in Romania to largely offset other declines from the more mature fields. While biomethane is likely to
continue its strong growth over the next few years, the size of which is too small to move the needle, in
our opinion. As such we are modeling a 4 bcm annual production decline for 2023 and 2024 across the
three scenarios.
2023 & 2024 EU Local Natural Gas Supply scenarios:
• All three cases, we assume European Union’s local/nearby regions natural gas production/import to
drop 4 bcm annually, in line with the historical trend line.
China LNG Demand
According to the country’s National Development and Reform Commission, China’s apparent gas
consumption dropped by ~1.7% to ~366 bcm in 2022 as a result of COVID lockdowns as well as
consistently mild weather in North Asia and slow economic growth. With record high JKM prices
observed last year, China’s LNG imports in 2022 dropped 19.5% year over year to 63.4 million metric
tons (~22 bcm) according to the customs data, helped the EU countries to refill the storage ahead of the
winter season.
Our base forecast anticipates China’s LNG imports to increase by ~19% (or ~17 bcm) to recoup ~75%
of the demand loss from 2022 reflecting the lifting of all COVID restrictions, albeit this is subject to
a wide range of uncertainties. In addition, while structural issues will continue to be a drag on the
economy in the long term (e.g., high youth unemployment, highly indebted local governments, and
demographic challenges), 2023 is likely to see stronger growth thanks to the reversal of some of its
anti-private enterprise policies as the government has stepped up supports to shore up the economy
as well as increase infrastructure spending. For example, the official non-manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) soared to 58.2 in March from 56.3 in February, representing the best level since
2011, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data release last Friday.
Whereas a confluence of more bullish conditions could boost China’s LNG intake by 25% (22 bcm) to
reach the previous peak in 2021, representing our “Worst case” for 2023, a set of more conservative
assumptions on total gas consumption, domestic production, and pipeline gas imports (continuing
ramp up of Power of Siberia 1) could also limit LNG demand growth to ~13% (11 bcm) in 2023, which is
our “Best case” scenario.


Exhibit
13 - China Demand for LNG 2019 to 2022
Source: IEA
2023 China LNG Imports scenarios:

• Base case, we expect China LNG imports to increase by ~19% (or ~17 bcm) to recoup ~75% of the
demand loss from 2022.
• Worst case, we assume China’s LNG intake could jump by 25% (22 bcm) in 2023 to reach the
previous peak in 2021.
• Best case, we assume only 11 bcm increase in Chinese LNG demand growth for 2023.
2024 China LNG Imports scenarios:
• Base case: LNG imports back to 2021 level, or 22 bcm higher than 2022.
• Worst case, we assume import will rise 28 bcm from last year, surpassing the peak level set in 2021.
• Best case, we assume import will increase only 17 bcm growth versus 2022.
Additional Global LNG Capacity through 2024
Over the next two years, global LNG volume growth is expected to be relatively muted. Based on our
analysis, 7 new LNG projects are expected to come online over 2023 and 2024 period; together with
production ramp-ups from projects that have recently started (e.g., Calcasiue Pass LNG in Louisiana),
we forecast Global LNG supply could increase by ~33 bcm in our base case ( ~15 bcm in 2023 and
~18 bcm in 2024). It is worth noting that our base case includes the first 9 bcm train of Russian Arctic
LNG-2 project that is scheduled to come online in 2024 but could be delayed in light of ongoing Russia
sanctions and the exit of their western partners.
LNG development historically has been one of Russia’s top energy priorities, evidenced by the passage
of the LNG liberalization law that went into effect in late 2013 that ended Gazprom’s LNG export
monopoly. With favorable government incentives and growing Asian demand, a slew of projects were
announced by the top three energy companies in the country, namely Gazprom, Novatek, and Rosneft.
However, because Russian LNG industry relies heavily on western financing and access to technology
and equipment critical for the projects to come to fruition, the potential for sanctions to be imposed
on these Russian companies has great implication to medium- to long-term global LNG market supply/
demand dynamics. Nevertheless, the Arctic LNG-2 project is the one mostly pertinent to our 2023-24
LNG market analysis. Specifically, we envisage postponing of Arctic LNG-2 project in our “Worst case”
scenario that identifies a potential supply-demand gap of 63 bcm in the European Union in 2024.


Exhibit
14 - Global LNG Volume Additions
70
60
50
40
BCM
30
20
10
0
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Rest of World Qatar Australia USA Mozambique Russia Canada
Source: Wood Mackenzie; EIA; Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.
Russian LNG Projects
Arctic LNG-2 (Under construction)
Project Summary
The Arctic LNG-2 project is located offshore near the remote Gydan Peninsula in northern West Siberia.
The three-train project's planned capacity totals 19.8 mmtpa and ranks the second large-scale LNG
project after Yamal LNG by NOVATEK. The project design is to build the LNG trains on three gravity-
based structures (the GBS platform consists of a large concrete or steel structure that is placed on
the ocean floor. The structure serves as a base for the LNG processing facilities, which can include gas
turbines, compressors, heat exchangers, and storage tanks) in the Ob Bay. LNG and condensate storage
will be located within the hull of the structures. Although separate elements of the concept have been
successfully used in other projects before, the combined concept of an LNG plant on GBS platforms in
the Arctic offshore has never been tested.
The Western Route
ARC7 tankers will navigate independently in the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea throughout the year with
nuclear icebreaker support to be used in winter to clear the Ob Bay channel from Utrenneye to the Kara
Sea. Another nuclear icebreaker will also be available in case of emergency.
The Northern Sea Route
The project will use ARC7 tankers through the Northern Sea Route
Sanction Impacts
Russia’s ability to complete the LNG projects greatly depends on access to finance and technologies,
which is limited under the current sanction regime, putting additional pressure on the timeline of these
potential supplies. For example, about 14 modules are required for each LNG train and, due to EU
sanctions restricting the transfer of liquefaction technology to Russia, any European components will
need to be replaced with Chinese parts on the modules that have not already been delivered to Russia,
which will inevitably lead to significant delays.


Project
Start-up
Initially, the first train is expected to launch in Q4 2023, and the second and third trains in 2024 and
2026. We now assume the start-up of Train 1 will still be pushed back to August 2024 but the other two
trains will be pushed back to 2027 and 2028, respectively.
Capital Costs and Initial Financing
When announced in 2019, NOVATEK indicated that capital costs will total US$21.3 billion, including
upstream development. LNG Plant costs are expected to be lower than the Yamal LNG facilities
according to Wood Mackenzie. The operator has targeted US$650-750/tonne.
Back in November 2021, Arctic LNG-2 closed its project financing structure: a consortium of Russian
banks will provide EUR 4.5 billion. China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China
signed credit facility agreements for another EUR 2.5 billion. The Japan Bank for International
Cooperation (JBIC) will put EUR 1.71 billion. Some other OECD lenders insured by export credit agencies
will provide EUR 0.8 billion. Overall, this translates to EUR 9.5 billion (US$10.8 billion) for up to 15 years.
Arctic LNG-2 Break-even
The project is expected to be competitive with greenfield projects in Australia and US due to lower
upstream and logistic costs. According to Wood Mackenzie estimate, the post-tax FOB breakeven
economics for the project would be ~$3.9/MMBtu.
Baltic LNG (Under Construction)
Project Summary
Baltic LNG is a 13-mmpta liquefaction project under construction in the Leningrad Oblast. In March
2019, Gazprom announced that the facilities will be part of a large complex that it intends to create with
RusGazDobycha. The plant will receive feedgas from West Siberian gas fields via the Northern Lights
pipeline system. The new plant includes two trains of 6.5 mmtpa each and is being built on the coast of
the Gulf of Finland near the port of Ust-Luga. The LNG plant will be operated by RusKhimAlyans and will
be part of a larger gas chemical complex.
Sanction Impacts
The project was originally targeting markets including Western Europe. With Europe trying to diversify
away from Russian gas, major sales contracts might not materialize. However, East Asian buyers may
show interest in the project given Japanese interest shown to date. European LNG buyers may benefit
in pricing from the low transport costs from the Baltic. Access to technologies could also put additional
pressure on the timeline of the project.
Project Start-up
Gazprom plans to start Train 1 in 2024 and Train 2 in 2025. We expect Train 1 to start in 2025 and be
followed by Train 2 a year later. We assume such a delay to account for above mentioned sanction
impacts.
Baltic LNG Break-even
The project is expected to be competitive with greenfield projects in Australia reflecting the lower
upstream and logistic costs. According to Wood Mackenzie estimate, the post-tax FOB breakeven
economics for the project is ~$3.2/MMBtu.


Sakhalin-2
LNG Expansion (Pre-FID)
Project Summary
The proposed Sakhalin-2 LNG expansion project will add a third train to the existing integrated
Sakhalin-2 project, which is located on Sakhalin Island off Russia's Pacific coastline, to the north of
Japan. The current proposal is for the liquefaction facility to be a one-train project of up to 5.4 mmtpa
capacity, but the project may be expanded further if feedgas is available.
Gazprom previously concluded several MoUs with the existing Sakhalin-2 partners on the expansion
project. The project documentation for Sakhalin-2 LNG expansion was ready in 2018, but no FID has
been taken by the partners because of the lack of feedgas. The project partners have negotiated with
Sakhalin-1 partners over the feedgas for a number of years but fail to reach an agreement.
At this point, this project is unlikely to realize in our view, and it is not included in our LNG database.
Yakutia LNG (Pre-FID)

Project Summary
The proposed Yakutia LNG plans (17.7 mmtpa) to reach a final investment decision (FID) in 2023 and
start up in 2027 to deliver LNG from Russia’s Far Eastern coast to China. Globaltec is the operator and
manager of the project. Natural gas and condensate producer Yatec JSC would supply the feed gas.
Both companies are subsidiaries of Russian private company, A-Property, which is owned by Russian
Oligarch Albert Avdolyan.
Given the ongoing western sanctions, we consider this project as speculative and have not included in
our LNG database.
Far East LNG (Pre-FID)
Project Summary
Far East LNG Terminal is a proposed LNG export terminal in Sakhalin, Russia. In October 2018 XOM
and Rosneft announced that SODECO and ONGC Videsh would also be partners in the project. The
location of the terminal would be De Kastri in Khabarovsk Krai. Initially, XOM and Rosneft plan to award
an engineering design contract in the spring of 2020, reach a final investment decision in 2021, and
begin production in 2027.
In 2021, Rosneft told the government that it may add 10 mtpa of LNG capacity to its plans for the Far
East Terminal, though the number of trains to be added for the newly proposed capacity was unclear.
In March 2022, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, XOM announced that it would withdraw from
all of its oil and gas operations in Russia. As such, we consider this project as speculative.
Pechora LNG (Pre-FID, likely cancelled)
Project Summary
Pechora LNG Terminal is a proposed LNG terminal in Komi, Russia. A pre-investment study of the
project and exploration work was completed upon the formation of the joint venture between Rosneft
(50%) and ALLTECH Group (50%) for the RN-Pechora LNG company.
In February 2018 the Energy Committee of the Duma decided that Rosneft could not export LNG
from its Pechora LNG plant as this would undermine Gazprom’s export monopoly. In September 2018
Rosneft announced that it had abandoned the project, while it was unclear if AllTech would attempt to


pursue
it independently. Since Rosneft abandoned the project there has been no further progress, and
the project appears to be cancelled.
Vladivostok LNG (Pre-FID)
Project Summary
The Vladivostok LNG project is a proposed two-train 10-mmtpa project on the Lomonosov Peninsula,
located 150 kilometers southwest of the Vladivostok port in Far East Russia. The project plans to tap gas
from the South Kirinskoye field (in the Sakhalin-3 licence area). Gazprom has 100% ownership of the
field.
In 2011, Gazprom signed an agreement with Japan's Ministry of Economy and Japan Far East Gas
Company, a joint venture of ITOCHU, Japan Petroleum Exploration (JAPEX), Marubeni, INPEX and
ITOCHU Oil Exploration to implement a joint feasibility study including a Pre-FEED study. In December
2013, the operator awarded the Front End Engineering Design (FEED) contract to WorleyParsons, which
was due for completion in Q4 2014.
In March 2021, Gazprom reported to Russian authorities that the capacity of Vladivostok LNG in the
country's far east is not expected to exceed 1.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) as compared with a
previously declared 10 mtpa.
With lack of progress and post-war environment for Russian projects, we consider this project as
speculative.
Upstream Major Projects
Based on our latest global liquids major project database, we expect new project startup run rate has
bottomed last year and will gradually ramp up in the coming years. We note that the historical trendline
would suggest the required rate of annual new major project start-up to maintain a steady production
ex U.S. shale oil is ~3.0-3.5 million bbl/d.


Exhibit
15 - Estimated Global Liquids Major Project Startup Rolling 3-Year Average
Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Exhibit
16 - Upstream Major Projects Start-Up Summary
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E+
OPEC/Non-OPEC Projects Summary By Year of Start-Up 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2027E+
Liquid Production (mbbl/d)
OPEC 559 1,038 600 849 495 255 2,010 1,430 3,315 84
Rolling 3-Year Average 1,396 1,339 732 829 648 533 920 1,232 2,252 2,771
Non-OPEC 1,609 968 446 853 1,828 2,225 1,582 1,600 2,119 3,230
Rolling 3-Year Average 1,643 1,431 1,008 756 1,042 1,635 1,878 1,802 1,767 5,176
Total Liquid 2,168 2,006 1,046 1,702 2,323 2,480 3,592 3,030 5,434 3,314
Rolling 3-Year Average 3,039 2,770 1,740 1,585 1,690 2,168 2,798 3,034 4,019 7,947
Natural Gas (mmcf/d)

OPEC 4,056 0 700 3,055 3,927 2,758 4,296 750 20 2,800
Non-OPEC 8,189 7,296 6,330 7,450 4,855 4,281 6,754 12,894 11,953 6,746
Total Natural Gas 12,245 7,296 7,030 10,505 8,781 7,039 11,050 13,644 11,973 9,546
Total Liquid and Gas (mboe/d)

OPEC 1,235 1,038 717 1,358 1,149 715 2,726 1,555 3,318 551
Rolling 3-Year Average 2,103 1,605 996 1,038 1,075 1,074 1,530 1,665 2,533 3,281
Non-OPEC 2,974 2,184 1,501 2,095 2,637 2,938 2,708 3,749 4,111 4,354
Total Production 4,209 3,222 2,218 3,453 3,787 3,653 5,434 5,304 7,430 4,905
Regional Projects Summary By Year of Start-Up 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2026E 2027E+
Liquid Production (mbbl/d)
North America 187 333 75 138 240 245 281 470 300 330
South America 600 370 180 400 850 725 801 820 931 1,330
Europe 543 130 126 255 0 312 0 0 115 160
Africa 152 103 175 94 115 190 500 540 380 10
Asia/Pacific 50 0 0 55 80 3 40 30 23 0
Middle East 504 950 490 760 495 145 1,920 1,170 3,235 84
FSU 132 120 0 0 543 860 50 0 450 1,400
Total Liquid 2,168 2,006 1,046 1,702 2,323 2,480 3,592 3,030 5,434 3,314
Rolling 3-Year Project Startup Summary 3,039 2,770 1,740 1,585 1,690 2,168 2,798 3,034 4,019 7,947
Natural Gas (mmcf/d)

North America 300 631 0 494 75 2,982 61 3,227 0 0
South America 512 212 510 300 106 175 653 0 741 0
Europe 550 240 1,890 120 0 324 240 300 60 240
Africa 2,158 50 2,790 1,021 2,481 0 740 2,867 20 4,300
Asia/Pacific 0 456 840 1,480 630 800 0 1,720 1,984 2,270
Middle East 6,306 1,740 700 2,640 2,248 2,758 6,856 4,900 2,900 1,000
FSU 2,419 3,967 300 4,451 3,241 0 2,500 630 6,268 1,736
Total Natural Gas 12,245 7,296 7,030 10,505 8,781 7,039 11,050 13,644 11,973 9,546
Total Liquid and Gas (mboe/d)

North America 237 438 75 220 253 742 291 1,008 300 330
South America 685 405 265 450 868 754 910 820 1,055 1,330
Europe 635 170 441 275 0 366 40 50 125 200
Africa 512 111 640 264 528 190 623 1,018 383 727
Asia/Pacific 50 76 140 302 185 136 40 317 354 378
Middle East 1,555 1,240 607 1,200 870 605 3,063 1,987 3,718 251
FSU 535 781 50 742 1,083 860 467 105 1,495 1,689
Total Production 4,209 3,222 2,218 3,453 3,787 3,653 5,434 5,304 7,430 4,905


Exhibit
17 - Major Project Database Breakdown by Country
Start Up Peak Peak Capacity* Working Interest (%)
Project Name Country Region OPEC Latest News Year Month/Qtr Year Liquid Gas BOE BP CVX COP E EQNR XOM HES MUR OXY SHEL TTE Others
(mbbl/d) (mmcf/d) (mboe/d)
North America
Canada
Aspen Phase 1 Canada NA N Nov-19 2025 2027 75 75 100 0
Bay du Nord offshore Eastern Canada Canada NA N early 2019 2027 2028 120 120 65 35
Cappahayden Canada NA N Oct-20 40 60
Cambriol Canada NA N Oct-20 40 60
Christina Lake Phase 3A (MEG) Canada NA N 2028 2029 50 50 100
Christina Lake Phase 3B (MEG) Canada NA N 2029 2030 50 50 100
Christina Lake Phase C-E (CVE) Canada NA N 2011 2016 100 100 100
Christina Lake Phase F (CVE) Canada NA N 3Q16 2017 50 50 100
Christina Lake Phase G (CVE) Canada NA N 2019 2020 50 50 100
Christina Lake Phase H (CVE) Canada NA N 2026 2027 50 50 100
Cold Lake - Nabiye Canada NA N 2015 2020 50 50 100
Dover Project (Phase 1-5) Canada NA N 2030 2033 50 50 100
Firebag Stage 4 Canada NA N 2013 2017 63 63 100
Firebag/Steepbank Debottleneck Canada NA N 2013 2018 100 100 100
Fort Hills Phase 1 Canada NA N 2017 4Q 2018 194 194 26 73.95
Foster Creek Phase F &G (CVE) Canada NA N 2014 2017 60 60 100
Foster Creek Future Phases (CVE) Canada NA N 2026 130 130 100
Grand Rapids Phase A-C (CVE) Canada NA N 2027 180 180 100
Hangingstone (SAGD) Phase 1-2 Canada NA N 2017 3Q 2028 55 55 100
Hebron Canada NA N 2017 4Q 2019 150 150 27 10 34 29
Hibernia Southern Expansion Canada NA N 2014 2Q 2015 80 80 11 28 61
Horizon Phase 2A/2B Canada NA N 2014 4Q 2017 55 55 100
Horizon Phase 3 Canada NA N 2017 4Q 2018 80 80 100
Kearl Phase 1 and debottleneck Canada NA N 2013 1Q 2021 120 120 100 0
Kearl Phase 2 and debottleneck Canada NA N 2015 2Q 2021 120 120 100 0
Kirby South/North Canada NA N 2013 2022 80 80 100
Kitimat LNG -- LNG Canada Canada NA N 2026 2027 2,250 375 40 60
Narrows Lake Phase 1-3 (CVE) Canada NA N 2026 135 135 100
Primrose Expansion (CNQ) Canada NA N 2021 2022 50 50 100
Sunrise Phase 1 Canada NA N 2015 1Q 2018 60 60 50 50
Sunrise Future Phases Canada NA N 140 140 50 50
Surmont Phase 2 (COP/TOT JV) Canada NA N 2015 3Q 2018 150 150 50 50 0
Surmont Future Phases (COP/TOT JV) Canada NA N 255 255 50 50 0

Telephone Lake (Phase A-B) (CVE) Canada NA N 90 90 100
West White Rose Canada NA N 2026 1H 2029 80 80 100
Total Canada 3,072 2,250 3,447 100 41 203 0 102 438 0 0 0 150 253
Mexico 0
Area 1 Full Field Mexico NA N Nov-22 2022 1Q 2025 98 98 100 0
Ayatsil Mexico NA N Mar-18 2013 2015 65 65 100
Kinbe/Koban Mexico NA N Oct-18 2024 2025 70 254 112 100
Tsimin/Xux Mexico NA N 2017 2019 100 100 100
Quesqui Mexico NA N 2020 2021 110 410 178 100
Xikin/Esah Mexico NA N Oct-18 2020 2021 163 221 200 100
ECA LNG Liquefaction Project Mexico NA N Dec-20 2022 2024 434 72 16 84
Area 1 - Amoca Field 2022 2024 75 75 100
Total Mexico 681 1,319 901 0 0 0 173 0 0 0 0 0 0 12
Exhibit 18 - Major Projects Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)

North America
United States -- Alaska 100
2S/1H News/CD-5 US NA N 2015 4Q 2019 53 53 73 27
GMT-1/GMT-2 US NA N 2018 4Q 2022 68 68 73
Pikka Phase 1 - 2 US NA N 2025 2027 120 100
Willow US NA N Feb-19 2028 4Q 2030 180 180 100 0
United States - Alaska 421 0 421 0 0 268 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
United States -- GOM and Others, ex Shale Oil
Appomattox US NA N 2019 2020 125 300 175 79 21
Anchor US NA N 2024 2025 75 28 80 63 37 0
Atlantis North Expansion US NA N 2013 2Q 2014 68 45 76 56 44
Atlantis Phase 2 US NA N 2014 2015 50 50 56 44
Atlantis Phase 3 US NA N 2020 2021 40 40 56 44
Ballymore US NA N May-22 2025 2025 86 61 96 60 40 44
Big Foot US NA N 2018 3Q 2019 75 25 79 60 28 12
Caesar/Tonga US NA N 2012 2013 62 62 20 80
Cameron LNG Train 4 and Debottleneck US NA N 2026 2027 0 977 163 17 83.4
Chinook/Cascade US NA N 2012 1Q 2013 80 16 83 66 33.6
Constellation US NA N 2019 2020 12 12 67 33 0
Delta House FPSO US NA N 2015 2016 100 240 140 100
Galapagos US NA N 2012 2Q 2013 45 90 60 56 44
Golden Pass LNG Export Terminal US NA N Mar-19 2024 2026 2,500 417 30 70
Hadrian South US NA N 2015 1H 2016 5 300 55 30 47 23
Heidelberg US NA N 2016 1Q 2017 80 80 93 13 12 9 44 22
Jack/St. Malo US NA N 2014 4Q 2016 170 42 177 51 1 23 1 12 10 2
Kaskida US NA N 140 140 100 0
Khaleesi/Mormont US NA N 2022 1H 2023 40 60 50 34
Lucius US NA N 2015 1Q 2016 100 150 125 9 23 8 49 11.25
Mad Dog II US NA N 2023 2Q 2024 140 75 153 61 16 23.9
Manuel (Na Kika tieback) US NA N 2020 1Q 2021 20 20 50 50 0
Mars B US NA N 2014 1Q 2015 100 177 130 72 28
Perdido (Great White/Tobago/Silvertip) US NA N 2010 1Q 2012 98 194 130 28 38 33 1
Sparta US NA N 2026 1Q 2027 75 75 51 49
Santa Cruz/Isabela (Noble) US NA N 2011 2012 50 60 60 0
Stampede US NA N 2018 2019 80 40 87 25 25 25
Stones Phase 1 US NA N 2016 2017 50 50 15 20 35 30
Thunder Horse South Expansion US NA N 2016 4Q 2017 75 75 75 25 0
Thunder Horse South Expansion Phase 2 US NA N 2021 4Q 2022 25 25 75 25 0
Tiber US NA N 0 31 31 18 16 4
Tubular Bells US NA N 2014 4Q 2016 50 50 43 57 0
Vito US NA N 2023 1Q 2023 100 100 37 63 0
Whale US NA N 2024 2025 100 200 133 40 60 0
United States - GOM and Others, ex Shales 2,316 5,660 3,259 488 428 0 49 111 215 50 113 106 483 113
Total United States, ex Shale 2,737 5,660 3,680 488 428 268 49 111 215 50 113 106 483 113
Total North America 6,490 9,229 8,028 588 468 470 222 213 654 50 113 106 633 377


Exhibit
19 - Major Projects Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)
North America (mbbl/d) (mmcf/d) (mboe/d)
South America
Argentina
Aguada Pichana Este-Vaca muerta Block gas Argentina SA N 2017 2022 500 83 34 65.865
Fenix Argentina SA N 2025 2025 11 353 70 38 62.5
Vega Pieyade Argentina SA N 2016 1Q 2017 350 58 38 62.5
Total Argentina 11 1,203 212 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 77
Brazil
Atapu 1 P-70 (lara) Brazil SA N Oct-20 2020 2Q 2021 150 212 185 25 15 60
Atapu 2 (lara) Brazil SA N Oct-20 2028 2029 225 225 25 15 60
Berbigao P-68 (lara) Brazil SA N Aug-19 2019 4Q 2020 150 212 185 25 15 60
Albacora Extension Brazil SA N 2011 2012 100 100 100
Baleia Azul (Cid. Anchieta) Brazil SA N 2012 2013 100 88 115 100
Bauna & Piracaba (Cidade de Itajai) Brazil SA N 2013 1Q 2014 80 71 92 100
BM-C-33 Brazil SA N 2027 2027 126 126 100
Buzios 1 - Franco (P-74) Brazil SA N Apr-19 2018 2Q 2019 150 150 100
Buzios 2 - Franco SW (P-75) Brazil SA N Apr-19 2018 4Q 2019 150 150 100
Buzios 3 - Franco Sul (P-76) Brazil SA N Apr-19 2019 1Q 2019 150 150 100
Buzios 4 - Franco NW (P-77) Brazil SA N Apr-19 2019 1Q 2019 150 150 100
Buzios 5 - Franco Leste (FPSO Alm Barroso) Brazil SA N Nov-21 2023 2023 150 150 100
Buzios 6 (P-78) Brazil SA N Nov-21 2025 2026 180 180 100
Buzios 7 (FPSO Alm. Tamandare) Brazil SA N Nov-21 2024 2025 225 225 100
Buzios 10 (P-82) Brazil SA N Oct-22 2026 2027 225 225 100
Buzios 11 (P-83) Brazil SA N Sep-22 2027 2028 225 225 100
Bacalhau - 1 / Carcara Brazil SA N Feb-23 2024 2025 220 220 40 40 20
Integrado Pq Baleias (IPB) FPSO Maria Quiteria Brazil SA N Oct-20 2024 4Q 2025 100 175 129 100
Iracema Norte (FPSO Cid. Itagual) Brazil SA N 2015 3Q 2016 150 283 197 25 75
Iracema Sul (Lula - FPSO Cid. De Mangaratiba) Brazil SA N 2014 2H 2016 150 283 197 25 75
Itapu (P - 71) Brazil SA N Aug-19 2023 1Q 2023 150 106 168 100
Jubarte Phase 2 (P-57) Brazil SA N 2010 4Q 2012 180 71 192 100
Lapa (Caorioca or Cid de Caraguatatuba) Brazil SA N 2016 4Q 2017 140 50 148 30 45 25
Libra Early Production (Pioneiro de Libra FPSO) Brazil SA N 2017 4Q 2018 50 50 20 20 60
Lula Alto(Cid de Marica) Brazil SA N 2016 1Q 2017 150 150 25 75
Lula Pilot (Cid de Angra dos Reis) Brazil SA N 2010 4Q 2012 100 100 25 75
Lula Central (Cid de Saquarema) Brazil SA N 2016 1H 2017 150 150 25 75
Lula Extremo Sul (P-69) Brazil SA N Apr-19 2018 4Q 2019 150 150 25 75
Lula NE (Nodeste) Pilot (Cid de Paraty) Brazil SA N 2013 2014 120 120 25 75
Lula Norte (FPSO P-67) Brazil SA N Apr-19 2019 1Q 2020 150 150 25 75
Lula Sul (FPSO P-66) Brazil SA N 2017 2Q 2018 150 150 25 75
Marlim I FPSO A. Garibaldi Brazil SA N Aug-19 2023 2024 80 80 100
Marlim II FPSO Anna. Nery Brazil SA N Aug-19 2023 2024 70 70 100
Mero early production1 FPSO Pioneiro de Libra Brazil SA N May-22 2017 2018 50 50 20 20 60
Mero 1 FPSO Guanabara (Libra Phase 1) Brazil SA N Aug-19 2022 2Q 2022 180 180 20 20 60
Mero 2 FPSO Sepetiba (Libra Phase 2) Brazil SA N Aug-19 2023 2024 180 180 20 20 60
Mero 3 FPSO Mal. Duque de Caxias (Libra Phase 3) Brazil SA N Feb-21 2024 2025 180 180 20 20 60
Mero 4 FPSO Alexandre de Gusmao (Libra Phase 4) Brazil SA N Feb-21 2025 2026 180 180 20 20 60
Mexilhao (PMXL-1) Brazil SA N 2011 2012 530 88 100
Norte Parque das Baleias (P-58) Brazil SA N 2014 2015 180 212 215 100
Papa-Terra Phase 1 (P-61/P-63) Brazil SA N 2015 1Q 140 35 146 38 62
Parque das Conchas Phase 2-3 Brazil SA N 2013 4Q 2017 63 63 50 50
Peregrino Brazil SA N 2011 2012 100 100 60 40
Peregrino Phase 2 Brazil SA N 2020 2021 100 100 60 40
Pre-salt EWT (2012) Brazil SA N 2012 2013 80 80 100
Revit Albacora Brazil SA N 2027 2027 120 120
Roncador Module 3 (P-55) Brazil SA N 2013 4Q 2015 180 210 215 100
Roncador Module 4 (P-62) Brazil SA N 2014 2Q 2016 180 210 215 100
Sapinhoa Norte (Cid de Ilhabela) Brazil SA N 2014 2H 2016 150 210 185 30 70
Sapinhoa (Guara) Phase 1/Pilot (Cid de Sapinhoa) Brazil SA N 2013 1Q 2014 120 177 150 30 70
SEAP 1 Brazil SA N Aug-19 2027 2027 120 371 182 100
SEAP 2 Brazil SA N 2027 2027 120 371 182 100
Sepia Nordeste de Tupi (FPSO Carioca) Brazil SA N Oct-20 2021 3Q 2022 180 210 215 17 83.1
Sepia 2 Brazil SA N Oct-20 2028 2029 225 225 17 83.1
Tartaruga Verde e Mestica Brazil SA N 2018 2Q 2020 150 177 180 100
Urugua Tambau (Cid. De Santos) Brazil SA N 2010 2Q 2012 35 353 94 100
Total Brazil 8,374 4,614 9,143 0 55 0 0 208 88 0 0 0 830 394


Exhibit
South America
Guyana 100
Liza Phase 1 Guyana SA N 2020 1Q 2021 120 120 45 30 25
Liza Phase 2 Guyana SA N Jul-19 2022 3Q 2023 220 220 45 30 25
Payara Guyana SA N 2023 4Q 2024 220 220 45 30 25
Yellowtail Guyana SA N 2025 3Q 2026 250 250 45 30 25
Uaru Guyana SA N 2026 4Q 2027 250 250 45 30 25
Whiptail Guyana SA N 2027 2028 220 220 45 30 25
Phase 7 Guyana SA N 2028 2029 220 220 45 30 25
Phase 8 Guyana SA N 2029 2030 220 220 45 30 25
Phase 9 Guyana SA N 2030 2031 220 220 45 30 25
Phase 10 Guyana SA N 2031 2032 220 220 45 30 25
Total Guyana 2,160 0 2,160 0 0 0 0 0 972 648 0 0 0 0
Suriname 100
Block 58 - Phase 1 Suriname SA N 2026 120 120 45 30 100
Total Suriname 120 0 120 0 0 0 0 0 54 36 0 0 0 120
Venezuela
Carabobo Phase 1 & 2 Venezuela SA Y Sep-13 2012 4Q 2014 30 30
Corocoro Venezuela SA Y Apr-08 2008 2Q 110 110 26
Junin 2 Venezuela SA Y May-17 2012 4Q 200 200
Junin 5 Venezuela SA Y Mar-13 2013 1Q 75 75 40
Junin 6 Venezuela SA Y Sep-12 2012 3Q 50 50
Perla gas Phase 1 Venezuela SA Y Jul-15 2015 2Q 2016 450 75 50
Perla gas Phase 2 Venezuela SA Y Jun-18 2016 350 58 50
Total Venezuela 465 800 598 0 0 0 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other South America
Margarita-Huacaya Phase II Bolivia SA N 2012 2014 15 425 86 38 62
Margarita-Huacaya Phase III Bolivia SA N 2014 2016 0 425 71 38 62
Incahuasi gas development Bolivia SA N 2016 3Q 2020 390 65 50 50
Itau Phase 2 Bolivia SA N 2013 2015 300 50 25 41 34
Acacias/CPO-09 (heavy oil) Colombia SA N 2016 2017 50 50 100
Castilla Expansion Colombia SA N 2011 2012 50 50 100
Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini Ecaudor SA Y 2016 2021 200 200 100
Angelin LNG Trinidad SA N 2019 1Q 2020 300 50 70 30
Cassia Compression Trinidad SA N Nov-22 2022 4Q 2023 300 50 70 30

Cypre gas tied back Trinidad SA N 2025 2026 300 50 70 30
Juniper LNG Trinidad SA N 2017 3Q 2018 570 95 70 30
Matapal (Tieback to Juniper) Trinidad SA N Sep-21 2021 3Q 2022 300 50 70 30
Serrette Trinidad SA N 2011 2013 500 83 100
Total Other South America 315 3,810 950 207 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 53
Total South America 11,445 10,428 13,183 207 55 0 125 208 1,114 684 0 0 902 644
Exhibit 21 - Major Projects Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)

Europe 100
Norway 100
Aasgard Subsea Compression Norway EU N 2015 3Q 2017 40 415 109 17 59 24
Aasta Hansteen Gas Field Norway EU N 2018 2H 2020 780 130 10 75 15
Balder X Norway EU N 2024 3Q 2025 71 71 58 42
Breidablikk Norway EU N 2024 2024 57 57 27 73
Gina Krog (formerly Dagny) Norway EU N 2017 2019 60 315 113 59 38 3
Edvard Grieg Norway EU N 2015 4Q 2017 100 100 100
Ekofisk South Norway EU N 2016 2014 70 70 35 12 8 40 5
Eldfisk II Norway EU N 2015 2017 60 60 35 12 8 40 5
Gjoa Norway EU N 2010 4Q 2012 620 103 20 12 68
Goliat Norway EU N 2016 1Q 2017 100 100 65 35 0
Gudrun Norway EU N 2014 2017 65 20 68 51 49
Irpa gas development Norway EU N 2026 4Q 2027 300 50 51 10 39
Ivar Aasen Norway EU N 2016 4Q 2018 70 70 50 50
Johan Castberg (Skrugard, Havis, Drivis in PL 532) Norway EU N 2024 2025 184 184 19 50 31
Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 Norway EU N 2019 4Q 2021 500 500 6 43 8 43.173
Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 Norway EU N 2022 4Q 2024 220 220 6 43 8 43.173
Martin Linge Norway EU N 2021 2Q 2022 50 390 115 70 30
Njord Future Norway EU N 2021 1H 20 80
Skarv/Idun Norway EU N 2013 2014 85 390 150 24 36 28 12
Smorbukk North-East Norway EU N 2011 2012 0 7 15 35 8 35
Snorre Expansion Norway EU N 2020 Dec 2023 110 240 150 33 66.73
Statfjord Late Life Norway EU N 2007 2009 80 315 133 15 44 9 32
Svalin Norway EU N 2014 2015 50 300 100 57 43
Tor Redevelopment Norway EU N 2017 2018 50 50 31 7 48 14.5
Trestakk Norway EU N 2013 2014 40 120 60 8 59 33
Troll Phase 3 Norway EU N Dec-18 2021 2Q 2023 1,380 230 2 31 8 4
Valemon Norway EU N 2014 2017 20 370 82 54 3 43
Valhall Redevelopment Norway EU N 2012 2020 50 50 100 0
Yggdrasil Norway EU N Dec-22 2028 2029 160 240 200 100
Total Norway 2,292 6,195 3,325 128 0 97 195 1,241 0 0 0 0 92 188
United Kingdom
Alligin 2019 4Q 2020 12 12 50 50 0
Buzzard Phase 2 United Kingom EU N 2021 2022 46 46 100
Cambo United Kingom EU N 2027 2028 55 55 0 100
Catcher United Kingom EU N 2017 2018 60 60 100
Clair Phase I United Kingom EU N 2005 2006 60 15 63 45 19 8 28 0.1
Clair Phase II United Kingom EU N 2018 4Q 2019 100 60 110 45 19 8 28 0.1
Corrib United Kingom EU N 2014 2016 335 56 37 45 18
Culzean United Kingom EU N 2019 2Q 2021 8 550 100 32 50 18
Golden Eagle United Kingom EU N 2014 2015 50 120 70 32 68
Jackdaw United Kingom EU N Jul-22 2025 2026 0 240 40 100 0
Jasmine United Kingom EU N 2013 4Q 2014 20 480 100 37 33 30
Kessog United Kingom EU N 2014 2015 50 50 50 50 0
Kinnoull United Kingom EU N 2014 2015 50 50 77 23
Laggan/Tormore United Kingom EU N 2016 2017 10 500 93 60 40
Mariner/Mariner East United Kingom EU N 2019 3Q 2021 35 35 29 65 6
Penguins Redevelopment United Kingom EU N Jan-18 2022 2023 35 120 55 50 50 0
Quad 204 United Kingom EU N 2017 2Q 2018 125 125 36 54 10
Rosebank-Lochnagar United Kingom EU N 2027 2028 60 60 70 40 60
Seagull United Kingom EU N 2021 2022 30 120 50 50 50
Schiehallion Redevelopment United Kingom EU N 2017 2Q 2018 120 100 137 33 6 55 6
Vorlich United Kingom EU N 2020 4Q 2021 20 20 66 66 -32
Total United Kingdom 946 2,700 1,396 307 33 50 43 80 28 0 0 0 290 166
Other European Countries
Tyra Denmark EU N 2024 2024 324 54 37 43 20
Tempa Rossa Italy EU N 2018 2019 50 50 25 50 25
Total Other European Countries 50 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 48
Total Europe 3,288 8,895 4,771 435 33 147 239 1,321 28 0 0 0 414 403


Exhibit
Africa
Algeria
Ain Tsila Algeria AF Y 2019 2021 30 350 88 100
Berkine South Algeria AF Y Oct-22 2022 4Q 2024 44 385 108 75 25
Block 208 Algeria AF Y 2007 2008 100 100 25 25 25 25.5
El Merk (EMK) Block 209/405A Algeria AF Y 2013 2015 145 145 8 9 83
Gassi Touil LNG Algeria AF Y 2013 2014 330 55 100
In Amenas Compression Algeria AF Y 2016 4Q 2018 330 55 46 46 8
In Salah Algeria AF Y 2016 1Q 2018 420 70 33 32 35
Manuel Lejmet East Algeria AF Y 2013 1Q 2015 37 300 87 75 25
Reggane Algeria AF Y 2018 2019 300 50 100
Rhourde Nouss-Quartzites Hamra Algeria AF Y 2013 2015 330 55 100
Skikda Gilk (LNG) Algeria AF Y 2013 2015 600 100 100
Touat Gas development Algeria AF Y 2017 2019 430 72 100
Takouazet Algeria AF Y 2012 2013 50 50 100
Total Algeria 406 3,775 1,035 48 0 0 183 48 0 0 0 25 0 38
Angola 100
Angola LNG JV Angola AF Y 2016 2Q 2017 63 670 175 14 36 14 14 22.4
Block 0 - Mafumeira Sul Angola AF Y 2017 2018 150 350 208 39 10 51
Block 14 - Lucapa Angola AF Y 2025 2026 80 80 31 20 20 29
Block 14 - Negage Angola AF Y 2018 2019 50 50 31 20 20 29
Block 15 - Kizomba Satellites Phase 1 Angola AF Y 2012 2013 100 100 27 20 13 40 0
Block 15 - Kizomba Satellites Phase 2 Angola AF Y 2015 2016 85 85 27 20 13 40 0
Block 15 - Mavacola/Clochas Angola AF Y 2012 2013 100 100 27 20 13 40 0
Block 15/06 (Eastern Hub) Angola AF Y 2017 1Q 2020 80 80 37 5 15 43
Block 15/06 (Western Hub) Angola AF Y 2014 4Q 2021 100 100 37 5 15 43
Block 15/06 Western Hub - Agogo Phase 1-2 Angola AF Y 2020 2024 43 43 37 5 15 43
Block 15/06 Sangos/N'Goma Angola AF Y 2014 2H 2015 80 80 37 5 15 43
Block 17 Cravo/Lirio/Orquidea/Violeta (CLOV) Angola AF Y 2014 2Q 2015 160 160 16 19 38 27.16
Block 17 CLOV Phase II Angola AF Y 2021 4Q 2022 40 40 16 19 38 27.16
Block 17 - Dalia Phase 1A Angola AF Y 2015 3Q 2016 30 30 16 19 38 27.16
Block 17 - Pazflor Angola AF Y 2011 3Q 2012 220 220 16 19 38 27.16
Block 17 - Zinia 2 Angola AF Y 2021 2022 40 40 16 19 38 27.16
Block 18 West - Platina Angola AF Y 2021 4Q 2022 30 30 46 54
Block 20 & 21 Cameia-Golfinho Angola AF Y 2026 2027 70 70 80 20

Block 31 - Palas/Astrea/Juno (PAJ) Angola AF Y 2026 2027 70 70 27 13 25 5 30
Block 31 - Plutao/Saturno/Venus/Marte (PVSM) Angola AF Y 2012 4Q 2014 150 150 27 13 25 5 30
Block 32 - Gindungo/Canela/Genibre Angola AF Y 2018 2019 200 200 15 30 55
Block 32 Kaombo Split Hub - Norte Angola AF Y 2018 2Q 2019 115 115 15 30 55
Block 32 Kaombo Split Hub -South Angola AF Y 2019 1Q 2020 115 115 15 30 55
Total Angola 2,171 1,020 2,341 252 184 0 220 81 327 0 0 0 0 499
Egypt
Atoll Phase 1 Egypt AF N 2017 4Q 2019 10 350 68 100 0
Baltim SW gas development Egypt AF N 2019 4Q 2021 540 90 50 50
Meleiha Phase 1&2 Egypt AF N 2019 3Q 2027 7 258 50 76 24
Nidoco North (Abu Madi West) Egypt AF N 2016 1H 2017 5 350 63 25 75 0
Nour North Sinai Concession Egypt AF N
Qattameya Field - North Damietta Concession Egypt AF N 2020 4Q 2021 50 100
WDDM 9B Egypt AF N 2019 2020 310 52 50 50
West Nile Delta -- Giza/Fayoum Egypt AF N 2019 1Q 2020 700 117 83 17.25
West Nile Delta -- Raven Egypt AF N 2021 2Q 2022 30 900 180 83 17.25
West Nile Delta -- Taurus/Libra Egypt AF N 2017 1Q 2020 5 600 105 83 17.25
Zohr Phase 1 Egypt AF N 2017 4Q 2019 1,200 200 10 60 30
Zohr Phase 2 Egypt AF N 2021 2023 1,440 240 10 60 30
Total Egypt 57 6,698 1,173 461 0 0 395 0 0 0 0 0 26 0
Ghana
Cape Three Points Block Ghana AF N 2017 2Q 2018 53 190 85 47 53
Jubilee Phase 1 Ghana AF N 2010 2015 120 120 24 75.92
Pecan (Tano Cape Three Block) Ghana AF N 2024 2025 80 80
TEN Complex Ghana AF N 2016 2H 2019 80 80 17 83
Total Ghana 333 190 365 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 17.711


Exhibit
23 - Major Project Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)
Africa
Libya 100
A&E Structure Libya AF Y Jan-23 2026 2027 750 125 50 50
OXY/OMV Field Libya AF Y 2009 2012 200 200 100
Suncor Field (Petro-Canada) Libya AF Y 2009 2014 100 100 100
Repsol/YPY Field Libya AF Y 2009 2012 100 100 100
Total Libya 400 750 525 0 0 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mozambique
Area 1 LNG Mozambique AF N 2026 2027 2,117 353 27 73.5
Area 4 LNG (Rovuma LNG) Mozambique AF N 2028 2030 10 2,500 427 25 25 50.02
Coral FLNG Mozambique AF N 2022 4Q 2023 5 606 106 25 25 50.02
Total Mozambique 15 5,223 885 0 0 0 133 0 133 0 0 0 0 93
Nigeria
Anyala West Nigeria AF Y 2020 4Q 2021 60 60 100
Assa North gas development Nigeria AF Y 2023 2024 360 60 30 70
Bonga NW Nigeria AF Y 2014 2014 40 40 17 9 16 38 9 11
Bonga SW/Aparo Nigeria AF Y Feb-19 2027 2028 150 150 17 9 16 38 9 11.4
Bosi Nigeria AF Y 2025 2026 140 260 183 56 44
Brass LNG Nigeria AF Y 2030 2031 1,800 300 17 17 66
Dibi Long Term Project Nigeria AF Y 2026 2027 70 70 40 60
Egina Nigeria AF Y 2018 4Q 2020 200 200 24 76
Erha North Phase 2 Nigeria AF Y 2015 2H 2015 80 80 56 44 0
Escravos Gas Project - EGP3A Nigeria AF Y 2010 1Q 2012 43 395 109 40 60
Etim/Asasa Pressure Maintenance Nigeria AF Y 2013 2015 50 50 40 60
Forcados/Yokri Integrated Project Nigeria AF Y 2017 2019 600 100 30 10 60
Gas Supply Expansion Project Nigeria AF Y 2025 2027 480 80 40 60
Gbaran Nodal Compression Project Nigeria AF Y 2023 2024 360 60 30 70
Gbarann Ubie Phase 2 Nigeria AF Y 2017 2H 2019 26 864 170 30 10 60
Ikike Nigeria AF Y 2022 3Q 2022 45 30 50 40 60
NLNG Train 6 Gas Supply Nigeria AF Y 2015 2016 300 50 26 74
NLNG Train 7 Gas Supply Nigeria AF Y 2023 2024 1,026 171 26 74
Nsiko Nigeria AF Y 2026 2027 100 100 55 45
Ofon Phase II Nigeria AF Y 2015 1Q 2018 60 60 40 60
OML 58 Upgrade Phase 1 Nigeria AF Y 2012 2013 420 70 40 60
OPL 245 (Etan and Zabazaba) Nigeria AF Y 2024 2025 110 0 110 50 50 0
Owowo West Nigeria AF Y 2026 2027 180 180 27 27 18 28
Preowei Nigeria AF Y 2026 2026 50 50 24
Sonam Development (gas supply extension) Nigeria AF Y 2017 2019 30 215 66 40 60
Uge Nigeria AF Y 2027 2028 110 20 113 20 30 50
Usan Nigeria AF Y 2012 1Q 2013 180 180 30 30 20 20
Usan Future Phases Nigeria AF Y 2025 2026 50 50 30 30 20 20
Usan Pressure Maintenance Nigeria AF Y 2015 2017 50 50 30 30 20 20
Total Nigeria 1,764 7,130 2,952 0 372 0 123 0 364 0 0 0 337 316
Other African Countries
Marine XII LNG Congo AF Y 2023 2025 0 432 72 65 35
Moho Nord Congo AF Y 2017 1Q 2018 100 100 32 54 14
Nene Marine Multi-Phases Congo AF Y 2015 2023 112 168 140 65 35
Alen Gas Monetization Project Equatorial Guinea AF N 2021 2Q 2027 35 450 110
Aseng/Alen Equatorial Guinea AF Y 2011 2014 84 84 100
Belinda (Block O) Equatorial Guinea AF Y 2013 2014 80 80 100
South Lokichar Phase 1 (Turkana)) Kenya AF N Aug-22 2027 2028 120 120 25 75
Sangomar Phase 1 Senegal AF N Nov-22 2023 4Q 2024 100 100 100
Tortue Phase 1 Mauritania/Senegal AF N 2023 4Q 2024 15 303 65 62 38
Lake Albert Basin - Tilenga & Kingfisher Projects Uganda AF N 2025 2026 230 230 57 43
Total Other African Countries 876 1,353 1,101 41 32 0 138 0 0 0 0 0 0 214
Total Africa 6,022 26,138 10,378 801 588 0 1,293 128 824 0 0 67 363 1,160
Exhibit 24 - Major Project Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)

Asia/Pacific
Australia/Oceania
APLNG Train 1 Australia AP N 2015 4Q 2016 750 125 50 50.01
APLNG Train 2 Australia AP N 2016 3Q 2017 750 125 50 50.01
Crux gas project (backfill for Prelude FLNG) Australia AP N 2027 2028 550 92 68 32
Curtis CMB LNG (QCLNG) Australia AP N 2015 1Q 2017 1,134 189 100 0
Gladstone LNG Train 1 (GLNG) Australia AP N 2015 3Q 2016 467 78 28 72
Gladstone LNG Train 2 (GLNG) Australia AP N 2015 3Q 2016 467 78 28 72
Gorgon LNG Train 1 Australia AP N 2016 1Q 2017 8 950 166 47 25 25 3
Ichthys LNG Train 1 & 2 Australia AP N 2018 3Q 2020 151 1,134 340 26 74
North Rankin Phase 2 Australia AP N 2013 4Q 2015 20 1,581 284 17 17 17 49.9
Persephone Australia AP N 2017 3Q 2018 1 292 50 17 17 17 49.9
Pluto LNG Train 1 Australia AP N 2012 2015 5 700 122 31 69
Pluto LNG Train 2 Australia AP N 2016 2018 5 700 122 31 69
Prelude Floating LNG (FLNG) Australia AP N 2018 1Q 2020 34 480 114 68 32
Scarborough LNG Australia AP N 2030 2032 0 1,030 172 100
Sunrise LNG Timor Sea AP N 2030 2032 840 140 100
Turrum/Kipper/Tuna Australia AP N 2013 2017 35 375 98 50 50
Western Flank B LNG Australia AP N 2018 4Q 2020 450 75 17 17 17 49.9
Wheatstone LNG Train 1 Australia AP N 2017 2Q 2018 15 804 149 64 36
Wheatstone LNG Train 2 Australia AP N 2018 1Q 2018 15 804 149 64 36
PNG LNG Train 1 & 2 Papua New Guinea AP N 2014 1Q 2015 35 1,150 227 33 31 35.9
PNG LNG Train 3 Papua New Guinea AP N 2028 2029 400 67 33 31 35.9
Papua LNG Papua New Guinea AP N 2027 4Q 2028 15 800 148 28 31 40.9
Total Australia/Oceania 351 18,237 3,391 68 470 125 0 0 300 0 0 0 585 269
Indonesia
Abadi FLNG (Shell/Inpex) Indonesia AP N Aug-19 2027 2028 8 334 64 35
Caltex 3 & Suban 3 Indonesia AP N 2015 2016 50 50 54 46
Banyu Urip Indonesia AP N 2015 2Q 2016 165 15 168 45 55
Banyu Urip Debottleneck Indonesia AP N 2018 2019 55 55 45 55
Corridor Block PSC Indonesia AP N 2007 2012 400 67 54 46
Gendalo/Gehem Gas Development Indonesia AP N 2026 2028 30 920 183 55 45
Donggi Senore LNG Indonesia AP N 2015 3Q 2016 335 56 100
Indonesia CBM Indonesia AP N 2013 2016 630 105 38 38 25
Jangkrik Indonesia AP N 2017 2Q 2019 10 450 85 55 45
Kangean Block (TSB gas field and Pagerungan Oil) Indonesia AP N 2011 2013 10 300 60 100
North Duri Field 12-14 Indonesia AP N 2008 4Q 2018 70 70 100 0
South Mahakam Phase 1/2 Indonesia AP N 2012 2014 18 330 73 50 50
Tangguh LNG Train 3 Indonesia AP N Aug-19 2023 4Q 2024 10 630 115 40 59.78
Total Indonesia 426 4,344 1,150 86 171 63 86 0 100 0 0 0 22 37


Exhibit
Asia/Pacific
Malaysia
Gorek/Larak/Bakong SK408 gas development Malaysia AP N Jan-19 2022 2023 450 75 30 70
Gumusut/Kakap Malaysia AP N 2012 2015 135 135 29 29 41.9
Gumusut/Kakap Phase II Malaysia AP N 2019 2020 50 50 33 33 34
Gumusut/Kakap Phase III & IV Malaysia AP N 2022 3Q 2024 50 50 33 33 34
Limbayong Malaysia AP N 2023 2024 70 70 40 60
Malikai Malaysia AP N 2016 4Q 2018 60 60 35 35 30
North Malay Gas Development Malaysia AP N 2013 2015 300 50 50 50
Pegaga gas development SK320 (SK320) Malaysia AP N 2021 2022 570 95 20
Petal/Siakap North Malaysia AP N 2014 2016 75 75 21 21 58
Rosmari-Marjoram gas development Malaysia AP N Sep-22 2026 2027 800 133 80 20
Sabah Gas Kebabangan (KBB) Malaysia AP N 2014 2017 22 825 160 30 30 40
Sabah Gas Kebabangan (KBB) Phase II Malaysia AP N 360 60 30 30 40
Telok Malaysia AP N 2013 2015 430 72 50 50
Timi gas development Malaysia AP N Aug, 2021 2024 2025 300 50 75 25
Ubah Malaysia AP N 2025 2026 40 40 35 35 30
Total Malaysia 502 4,035 1,175 0 0 217 0 0 36 25 0 0 374 0
Other Asian Countries
Bibiyan gas development Bangladesh AP N 2007 1Q 2010 690 115 98 2
Bibiyan gas development Phase 2 Bangladesh AP N 2010 2013 410 68 98 2
Bibiyan gas development Phase 3 Bangladesh AP N 2014 4Q 2015 4 300 54 98 2
Changqing Expansion China AP N 2010 2015 100 1,500 350 100
Chuandongbei Stage 1 China AP N 2016 1Q 2016 258 43 49 51
Chuandongbei Future Stages China AP N 2027 300 50 49 51
Liwan/Liuhua gas development China AP N 2014 2018 500 83 100
Jidong Nanpu, Bohai Bay China AP N 2009 2012 200 200 100
Peng Lai 19-3, Bohai Bay Phase III China AP N 2018 2020 60 60 49 51
Qinshui Basin CBM China AP N 2009 2015 435 73 100
Sulige China AP N 2012 2014 420 70 49 51
Yuanba China AP N 2015 2017 329 55 100
Aishwariya/Bhagyam India AP N 2012 2013 50 50 100
MJ project in Block KG D6 India AP N 2022 4Q 2024 540 90 33 66.67
R-Series project in Block KG D6 India AP N 2020 4Q 2021 456 76 33 66.67
Satellites Cluster in Block KG D6 India AP N 2021 2Q 2023 270 45 33 66.67

Badamyar Thailand AP N 2017 2Q 2018 120 20 28 31 41
Zawtika Thailand AP N 2013 2015 300 50 100
Bongkot South Vietnam AP N 2012 2013 9 320 62 22 33 45
Platong Gas II Vietnam AP N 2011 2012 18 329 73 70 30
Block B Gas Development Vietnam AP N 2022 2023 5 490 87 100
Ca Voi Xanh (Blue Whale) gas development Vietnam AP N Nov-18 2024 2025 3 500 86 64 36
Su Tu Trang/SU Tu Nau Vietnam AP N 2015 2016 65 65 100
Total Other Asian Countries 514 8,467 1,925 70 335 29 0 0 55 0 0 0 14 61
Asia/Pacific 1,793 35,083 7,641 224 976 434 86 0 491 25 0 0 995 367


Exhibit
Middle East 100
Iran 100
Azadegab North Phase 1 Iran ME Y Feb-19 2017 2018 80 80 100
Azadegab North Phase 2 Iran ME Y Feb-19 2020 2021 75 75 100
Azadegab South Phase 1 Iran ME Y Feb-19 2018 2019 110 110 100
Band-e Karkheh Iran ME Y Jan-19 2026 2026 100 100 100
Darquain Phase 3 Iran ME Y 2026 2026 60 60 60 40
Foroozan Expansion Iran ME Y 2026 2026 50 50 100
Hengam Iran ME Y 2010 2018 45 80 58 100
Karanj expansion Iran ME Y Oct-18 2026 2026 80 80
South Pars Phase 4 & 5 Iran ME Y 2005 3Q 2007 80 2,050 422 100
South Pars Phase 9 & 10 Iran ME Y 2010 2013 80 1,748 371 100
South Pars Phase 11 Iran ME Y Mar-19 2024 2025 70 1,958 396 100
South Pars Phase 12 (condensate) Iran ME Y 2015 1Q 2020 120 3,000 620 100
South Pars Phase 13 Iran ME Y 2019 1Q 2022 75 1,958 401 100
South Pars Phase 14 Iran ME Y 2023 1Q 2024 75 1,748 366 100
South Pars Phase 15 & 16 Iran ME Y 2016 1Q 2020 75 1,700 358 100
South Pars Phase 17-18 Iran ME Y Apr-17 2017 1Q 2020 80 1,770 375 100
South Pars Phase 19 Iran ME Y Apr-17 2017 2020 122 1,748 414 100
South Pars Phase 20-21 Iran ME Y Apr-17 2017 2020 107 1,958 433 100
South Pars Phase 22-24 Iran ME Y Feb-19 2019 1Q 2022 139 1,748 430 100
Yadavaran Phase 1 Iran ME Y Feb-23 2013 2023 110 110 100
Yadavaran Phase 2 Iran ME Y Feb-23 2025 2026 120 120 100
Yaran Phase 1 and Expansion Iran ME Y Jul-18 2016 4Q 2020 60 60 100
Total Iran 1,913 21,467 5,491 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iraq
Al-Ahdab Iraq ME Y Jun-11 2011 2Q 2014 58 58 100
Atrush Phase 1 & 2 (Taqa) Iraq ME Y Jul-17 2017 3Q 2020 60 60 100
Badra Iraq ME Y May-18 2014 2Q 2017 85 153 111 100
Basrah Gas Development Iraq ME Y Nov-18 2013 3Q 2022 2,000 333 44 56
Bina Bawi Iraq ME Y Apr-19 2021 2023 15 700 132 100
Block 10 - Eridu Phase I Iraq ME Y Oct-18 2021 2022 100 100 100
Block 10 - Eridu Future Phases Iraq ME Y 2023 2030 300 300 100
Chemchemal/Khor Mor gas expansion Iraq ME Y Aug-19 2022 2024 500 83 100
Gharaf Phase 1 Iraq ME Y 2013 4Q 2020 120 120 100

Halfaya Phase 1 Iraq ME Y 2012 2014 170 100 187 23 77.5
Halfaya Phase 2 Iraq ME Y 2013 2015 100 220 137 23 77.5
Halfaya Phase 3 Iraq ME Y Dec-18 2018 4Q 2021 200 300 250 23 77.5
Majnoon Debottleneck Iraq ME Y 2014 2017 120 120 100
Majnoon Phase 1 Iraq ME Y 2013 2018 240 240 100
Majnoon Phase 4+ Iraq ME Y 2027 2040 1,135 1,135 100
Nahr Umar Expansion Iraq ME Y 2013 2015 70 70 100
Najma restart Iraq ME Y 2018 2021 55 55 100
Nassinya Expansion Iraq ME Y 2018 2020 110 110 48 52
Ratawi Iraq ME Y Sep-21 2022 2026 210 140 233 50 50
Rumaila Phase 1 Iraq ME Y 2011 2013 200 200 48 52
Rumaila Phase 4 Iraq ME Y Apr-19 2022 2025 300 300 48 52
Shaikan (Kurdish Region) Iraq ME Y 2013 2020 55 55 100
Tawke (Kurdish Region) Iraq ME Y Sep-17 2009 2013 135 135 100
West Qurna 1 Phase I Iraq ME Y 2011 2014 300 300 33 67.3
West Qurna 1 Phase II Iraq ME Y Jun-19 2019 2020 200 200 33 67.3
West Qurna 1 Phase III Iraq ME Y 2021 2025 200 200 33 67.3
West Qurna 1 Phase IV Iraq ME Y 2025 2027 200 200 33 67.3
West Qurna 1 Phase V+ Iraq ME Y 2027 2040 1,100 1,100 33 67.3
West Qurna 2 Phase I (Mishrif early oil) Iraq ME Y 2014 1Q 2015 400 400 100
West Qurna 2 Phase II (Mishrif remaining) Iraq ME Y 2018 2020 150 150 100
West Qurna 2 Phase III (Yamana Initial) Iraq ME Y 2020 2021 50 50 100
Zubair Phase 1 Iraq ME Y 2011 2016 350 350 33 67
Zubair Phase 3 Iraq ME Y May-18 2018 2018 150 150 33 67
Total Iraq 7,978 4,113 8,663 427 0 0 281 0 654 0 0 0 147 246


Exhibit
Middle East 100
Kuwait
Al Ratqa Lower Fars Phase 1 Kuwait ME Y Jun-19 2020 1Q 2021 60 60 100
Al Ratqa Lower Fars Phase 2 Kuwait ME Y Jun-19 2023 2025 120 120 100
Enhanced Oil Recovery (Northern Fields) Kuwait ME Y 2013 2017 100 100 100
Total Kuwait 280 0 280 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Qatar
Al Khaleej (EGU) Phase 2 Qatar ME N 2009 4Q 2012 100 1,250 308 80 20
Al -Shaheen Increments Qatar ME N 2011 2013 80 80 30 70
Barzan Phase I Qatar ME N 2019 2021 90 1,400 323 7 93
Pearl GTL Phase I Qatar ME N 2011 2Q 2013 130 130 100 0
Pearl GTL Phase 2 Qatar ME N 2012 2014 130 130 100 0
Rasgas New Trains Qatar ME N 2026 2030 100 2,000 433 100
Qatargas IV Qatar ME N 2011 1Q 2012 70 1,400 303 30 70
North Field East Expansion Train 1 Qatar ME N 2025 2026 90 1,450 332 3 3 6 6 6 75
North Field South Expansion Train 1 Qatar ME N 2027 2027 90 1,450 332 6 9 9 75
North Field South Expansion Train 2 Qatar ME N 2027 2027 90 1,450 332 6 9 9 75
Total Qatar 1,060 11,850 3,035 0 0 41 41 0 352 0 0 0 434 107
Saudi Arabia
Ain Dar and Farzan expansion Saudi Arabia ME Y 2021 2Q 2021 175 175 100
Berri expansion Saudi Arabia ME Y Apr-22 2025 2025 250 250 100
Dammam Saudi Arabia ME Y Aug-22 2024 2024 75 75 100
Dorra Gas Development JV (Saudi/Kuwait) Saudi Arabia ME Y Apr-19 2024 2026 800 133 100
Durra offshore gas development (JV with Kuwait) Saudi Arabia ME Y Mar-22 2028 2029 84 1,000 251 100
Hasbah and Arabiyah gas development Saudi Arabia ME Y 2016 1Q 2018 2,500 417 100
Hasbah gas Phase 2 Saudi Arabia ME Y 2022 2023 2,000 333 100
Jafurah Gas Development Saudi Arabia ME Y 2025 2036 550 2,200 917 100
Khursaniyah Gas Train 1-3 Saudi Arabia ME Y 2010 2014 1,800 300 100
Khurais Saudi Arabia ME Y May-18 2009 2Q 1,200 1,200 100
Khurais (NGL and Sour Gas) Saudi Arabia ME Y May-18 2009 2Q 80 320 133 100
Khurais Expansion Saudi Arabia ME Y May-18 2018 4Q 300 300 100
Khurais Expansion (NGL and Sour Gas) Saudi Arabia ME Y May-18 2018 4Q 34 143 58 100
Neutral Zone Restart Saudi Arabia ME Y 2020 2Q 2022 550 550 100
Manifa gas condensate and gas Saudi Arabia ME Y 2015 2016 65 90 80 100
Manifa Oil Phase I Saudi Arabia ME Y 2013 2Q 2014 450 450 100
Manifa Oil Phase II Saudi Arabia ME Y 2014 2017 450 450 100
Manifa Oil Phase III Saudi Arabia ME Y May-18 2018 4Q 2020 300 300 100
Marjan expansion Saudi Arabia ME Y Apr-22 2025 2026 300 300 100
Safaniyah expansion Saudi Arabia ME Y Aug-22 2027 4Q 2029 700 700 100
Shaybah NGL recovery Saudi Arabia ME Y 2014 2015 250 250 100
Shaybah Oil Expansion Phase I Saudi Arabia ME Y 2009 2010 250 250 100
Shaybah Oil Expansion Phase II Saudi Arabia ME Y 2016 2017 125 125 100
Shaybah Oil Expansion Phase III Saudi Arabia ME Y 2017 2018 125 125 100
Zuluf expansion Saudi Arabia ME Y Aug-22 2026 2027 600 600 100
Total Saudi Arabia 6,913 10,853 8,722 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Exhibit 28 - Major Project Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)

Middle East 100
United Arab Emirates
Asab 2 NGL UAE ME Y 2011 2013 271 271 100
Bab Rumaitha/Al-Dabbiya Northeast UAE ME Y 2013 2015 75 75 100
Bab Habshan-1, Bab Thamama A, Bab Thamama H UAE ME Y 2014 2016 70 70 100
Bab Thamama G & Bab Habshan-2 UAE ME Y 2013 2015 80 80 100
Dalma Gas UAE ME Y 2025 2025 336 56 25 75
Ghasha UAE ME Y 2027 2028 120 120 100
Hail & Ghasha Sour Gas Development UAE ME Y 2025 2027 120 1,020 290 25 75
Lower Zakum Expansion UAE ME Y 2016 2018 125 125 100
Nasr UAE ME Y 2015 2019 65 65 100
Nasr/Umm Loulou UAE ME Y 2010 2012 190 190 100
Qusahwira/Bida al-Qemzau UAE ME Y 2013 2015 65 65 100
Shah Gas UAE ME Y 2014 4Q 2016 83 500 166 40 60
Umm al-Lulu UAE ME Y 2016 2021 105 105 100
SARB UAE ME Y 2018 2023 155 155 100
Upper Zakum Phase 1 Expansion UAE ME Y 2017 2019 250 250 28 72
Upper Zakum Phase 2 Expansion UAE ME Y 2022 2024 250 250 28 72
Total United Arab Emirates 2,024 1,856 2,333 0 0 0 87 0 140 0 0 66 0 0
Other Middle East Countries
Awali JV Bahrain ME N 2010 2019 78 850 220 100
Leviathan Phase 1A Israel ME N 2019 4Q 2022 1,200 200 40 60
Tamar Phase I Israel ME N 2013 1Q 2015 1,200 200 25 75
Tamar Phase 2 Israel ME N 2025 2025 400 67 25 75
Harweel/Qarn Alam Oman ME N 2010 2012 80 80 34 4 62
Khazzan - Block 61 Phase 1 Oman ME N 2017 3Q 2019 50 900 200 60 40
Ghazeer - Block 61 Phase 2 Oman ME N 2020 4Q 2022 15 600 115 60 40
Mukhaizna EOR Oman ME N 2012 2013 50 50 17 2 81
Mukhalzna Expansion Oman ME N 2007 2012 140 140 17 2 81
Oman Block 10 Oman ME N 2023 1Q 2024 500 83 53 27
Yemen LNG Train 1 & 2 Restart Yemen ME N 2020 2022 1,140 190 100
Total Other Middle East Countries 413 6,790 1,545 189 147 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 104 29
Total Middle East 20,860 56,930 30,349 616 147 41 444 0 1,146 0 0 66 685 382


Exhibit
Former Soviet Union 100
Azerbaijan 100
Absheron Azerbaijan FSU N 2023 1Q 2024 13 145 37 50 50
ACG Azeri Central East Azerbaijan FSU N 2023 2024 80 80 30 7 7 55.57
ACG West Chirag Oil Project Azerbaijan FSU N 2015 1Q 2016 183 285 231 30 7 7 55.57
Shah Deniz Phase 2 Azerbaijan FSU N 2018 2Q 2022 65 1,470 310 29 16 55.2
Total Azerbaijan 341 1,900 658 184 0 0 0 72 21 0 0 0 0 19
Kazakhstan
Aktote Kazakhstan FSU N 2025 2027 50 850 192 17 17 66
Karachaganak Phase 2 Train 4 Kazakhstan FSU N 2011 2012 56 56 20 33 29 17.7
Kashgan Phase 1 Restart Kazakhstan FSU N 2016 3Q 2019 370 450 445 17 17 17 17 32.19
Kashgan Phase 1 Expansion Kazakhstan FSU N 2020 2022 80 80 17 17 17 17 32.19
Kashgan Phase 2+ Kazakhstan FSU N 2027 2032 450 450 525 17 17 17 17 32.19
Khvalynskoye Kazakhstan FSU N 2017 2020 774 129 17 83
North Karpovsky Kazakhstan FSU N 2021 2023 300 50 55 45
Pearls (CMOC) Kazakhstan FSU N 2020 2021 40 40 100
Tengiz FGP Kazakhstan FSU N 2024 3Q 2025 260 260 50 25 25
Tengiz WPMP Kazakhstan FSU N 2023 2028 450 450 50 25 25
Total Kazakhstan 1,756 2,824 2,227 0 366 0 195 0 389 0 0 0 222 233
Russia
Arog Russia FSU N 2012 2013 50 50 100
Arctic LNG 2 Train 1 Russia FSU N 2027 2029 868 145 10 90
Arctic LNG 2 Train 2 Russia FSU N 2028 2030 868 145
Arctic LNG 2 Train 3 Russia FSU N 2029 2031 868 145
Boishekhetsky Russia FSU N 2014 2015 100 100 100
Chayanda gas development Russia FSU N Jul-19 2019 3Q 2021 47 2,419 450 100
East Messoyakha Russia FSU N 2016 3Q 2020 110 110 100
Filanovsky Russia FSU N 2014 2016 160 160 100
Kamennoye Russia FSU N 2009 2013 84 84 100
Kharampur Phase 1 (Senomanian) Russia FSU N 2020 2022 1,064 177 100
Kharasaveyskoye gas development Russia FSU N Mar-19 2023 2025 3,096 516 100
Kharyaga Russia FSU N 2007 2013 60 60 100
Kondinskoe Russia FSU N Feb-19 2017 4Q 2020 46 12 48 100
Kovykta Russia FSU N Oct-18 2022 4Q 2024 2,419 403 100
Kuyumba Russia FSU N Feb-19 2018 4Q 2022 58 58 100

Novoportoskoye (West Siberia) Russia FSU N 2014 2020 200 200 100
Priraziomnoye Russia FSU N 2013 4Q 2020 120 120 100
Priobskoye Expansion Russia FSU N 2011 2013 100 100 100
Purovsky Expansion Russia FSU N 2013 2014 309 52 100
Pyakyakhinskoe Russia FSU N Feb-19 2016 4Q 2018 40 390 105 100
Rospan Gas Expansion Russia FSU N 2014 2016 1,238 206 100
Russkoe oil development Russia FSU N Feb-19 2018 4Q 2023 125 125 100
Sakhalin I Phase 1 Arkutun-Dagi Russia FSU N 2015 4Q 2017 130 130 30 70
Sakhalin I Odoptu Russia FSU N 2017 2018 65 65 30 70
Sakhalin III - Kirinskoye gas development Russia FSU N 2014 2016 532 89 100
Sakhalin III - Yuzhno-Kirinskoye development Russia FSU N 2022 2024 2,032 339 100
Samburgskoye Russia FSU N 2012 2015 870 145 29 71
Shtokman LNG Train 1 Russia FSU N 2025 2027 1,650 275 24 25 51
Shtokman LNG Train 2-4 Russia FSU N 2027 2033 4,950 825 24 76
Suzun (Suzunskoye) Russia FSU N 2016 4Q 2018 90 240 130 100
Taas-Yuryakh Expansion (East Siberia) Russia FSU N Feb-19 2018 1Q 2022 96 96 100
Tagul Russia FSU N Feb-19 2018 4Q 2022 86 86 49 51
Termokarstovoye Russia FSU N 2015 2016 25 25 49 51
Trebs & Titov Russia FSU N 2013 2017 120 120 100
Urengoyskoye Russia FSU N 2014 2015 150 150 29 71
Urengoyskoye Phase 2 Russia FSU N 2019 2020 85 85 29 71
Vankor Russia FSU N 2009 2015 600 600 100
Verkhnechonsk Expansion Russia FSU N 2011 2015 50 50 100
Vladimir Filanovsky Russia FSU N 2016 2017 115 115 100
Vostochno-Messoyakhskoye Russia FSU N 2016 3Q 2020 112 112 100
Vostos Oil development Phase 1 Russia FSU N 2024 2025 600 600 100
Vostos Oil development Phase 2 Russia FSU N 2030 2031 1,400 1,400 100
Y. Korchagina Russia FSU N 2010 2013 50 95 66 100
Yamal (Bovanenkovo) Phase 1 Russia FSU N 2012 2015 5,805 968 100
Yamal (Bovanenkovo) Phase 2 Russia FSU N 2014 2017 2,903 484 100
Yamal (Bovanenkovo) Phase 3 Russia FSU N 2018 4Q 2020 2,419 403 100
Yamal (Russkoye) Russia FSU N 2015 2020 176 176 100
Yamal LNG Train 1 Russia FSU N 2017 4Q 2018 900 150 20 80
Yamal LNG Train 2 & 3 Russia FSU N 2018 2020 1,800 300 20 80
Yaregskoye Expansion (SAGD Improvement) Russia FSU N 2012 2017 53 53 100
Yarudeyskoye Russia FSU N 2015 4Q 2016 70 70 100
Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye oil treatment Russia FSU N Feb-19 2017 2019 96 96 100
Yurkharovskoye Phase 3 Russia FSU N 2011 2014 1,350 225 100
Total Russia 5,469 39,096 11,985 0 0 0 110 264 59 0 0 0 0 228
Other Former Soviet Union Countries
Neptun Deep Romania FSU N 2026 2027 630 105 50 50
Galkynysh Phase I Turkmenistan FSU N 2013 3Q 2016 2,903 484 100
Galkynysh Phase II Turkmenistan FSU N 2020 2022 2,903 484 100
Gissar/Kandym gas development Uzbekistan FSU N 2017 3Q 2020 1,590 265 100
Total Other Former Soviet Union Countries 0 8,025 1,338 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 0 0
Total Former Soviet Union 7,566 51,845 16,207 184 366 0 305 336 521 0 0 0 222 479
Worldwide Total 57,465 198,548 90,556 3,055 2,634 1,094 2,714 2,206 4,777 759 113 240 4,215 3,812


Appendix A: Important Disclosures
Company Disclosures (see legend below)*

Vermilion Energy Inc. G, I, J, N1, O1, U, V0205
We, Tristan J. Richardson, Paul Y. Cheng, Jason Bouvier, Cameron Bean and Kevin Fisk, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report in
connection with securities or issuers that we analyze accurately reflect our personal views and (2) no part of our compensation was, is, or will
be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by us in this report.
This document has been prepared by Research Analysts employed by The Bank of Nova Scotia and/or its affiliates. The Bank of Nova Scotia,
its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "Scotiabank." "Scotiabank" together with "Global Banking and Markets"
is the marketing name of the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets business of The Bank of Nova Scotia and its
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compensation of the Research Analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by Scotiabank Research Management and
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Time of dissemination: April 4, 2023, 06:18 ET. Time of production: April 4, 2023, 00:10 ET. Note: Time of dissemination is defined as the
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*Legend
G Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has managed or co-managed a public offering in the past 12 months.
I Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months.
J Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the
next 3 months.
N1 Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months.
O1 Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates collectively beneficially own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding
equity securities of this issuer.
U Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or
debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to, this issuer.
V0205 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Vermilion Energy Inc. in relation to the announced sale of its Queensdale assets in
Southeast Saskatchewan.


Definition of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings

Scotiabank has a three-tiered rating system, with ratings of Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector Underperform. Each Research
Analyst assigns a rating that is relative to his or her coverage universe or an index identified by the Research Analyst that includes, but is not
limited to, stocks covered by the Research Analyst.
The rating assigned to each security covered in this report is based on the Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research Analyst’s 12-
month view on the security. Research Analysts may sometimes express in research reports shorter-term views on these securities that may
impact the price of the equity security in a manner directly counter to the Research Analyst’s 12-month view. These shorter-term views
are based upon catalysts or events that may have a shorter-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in research
reports, including but not limited to the inherent volatility of the marketplace. Any such shorter-term views expressed in research report are
distinct from and do not affect the Research Analyst’s 12-month view and are clearly noted as such.
Ratings

Sector Outperform (SO) Other Ratings

The stock is expected to outperform the average 12-month total
return of the analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by Under Review – The rating has been temporarily placed under
the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the review, until sufficient information has been received and assessed
analyst. by the analyst.
Sector Perform (SP) Tender – As of January 25, 2021, Scotiabank GBM discontinued the
Tender rating.
The stock is expected to perform approximately in line with the
average 12-month total return of the analyst’s coverage universe or Risk Ranking
an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to,
The Speculative risk ranking reflects exceptionally high financial
stocks covered by the analyst.
and/or operational risk, exceptionally low predictability of financial
Sector Underperform (SU) results, and exceptionally high stock volatility. The Director of
Research and the Supervisory Analyst jointly make the final
The stock is expected to underperform the average 12-month total
determination of the Speculative risk ranking.
return of the analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by
the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the
analyst.
Focus Stock (FS)

As of April 29, 2019, Scotiabank GBM discontinued the Focus
Stock rating. A stock assigned this rating represented an analyst’s
best idea(s); stocks in this category were expected to significantly
outperform the average 12-month total return of the analyst’s
coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that
included, but was not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst.
Ratings Distribution
As of April 3, 2023
Companies Rated Investment Banking Service Provided
in Each Category in the Last 12 Months
Rating Count Percentage Count Percentage
Sector Outperform 261 50% 53 20%
Sector Perform 245 47% 33 13%
Sector Underperform 20 4% 0 0%
For the purposes of the ratings distribution disclosure FINRA requires members who use a ratings system with terms different than
“buy,” “hold/neutral” and “sell,” to equate their own ratings into these categories. Our Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector
Underperform ratings are based on the criteria above, but for this purpose could be equated to buy, neutral and sell ratings, respectively.


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Scotia LNG

Uploaded by

Scotia LNG

Uploaded by

Global Energy

PC Oil Roadmap, March 2023 Edition – Where Will European

Paul Y. Cheng, CFA | Analyst KEY POINTS

Betty Zhang, CFA | Associate

Austin Glenn | Associate

• European IOCs: TTE, SHEL and BP

• Canadian-weighted oil: VET

• North American gas producers: TOU

• North American Infrastructure: LNG

Exhibit 1 - 2023-2024 LNG Market Supply/Demand vs 2022

Tight/(Loose) LNG Market vs 2022 47 7 (9) 63 13 (3)

Exhibit 2 - 2023-2024 LNG Market Supply/Demand vs 2022

Tight/(Loose) LNG Market vs 2022 47 7 (9) 63 13 (3)

What does it mean for the current TTF Prices?

Source: Bloomberg; Scotiabank GBM.

Exhibit 4 - TTF Futures ($/MMBtu)

Source: Bloomberg; Scotiabank GBM.

Source: Bloomberg; Scotiabank GBM.

Exhibit 6 - Bloomberg Illustrative GC LNG Netback Analysis (based on futures as of 3/31)

Source: Bloomberg; Scotiabank GBM.

Europe Natural Gas Consumption

2023 EU natural gas consumption scenarios:

2024 EU natural gas consumption scenarios:

Russian Pipeline Gas to Europe

Exhibit 8 - Russian Pipeline Gas to EU (Excluding Ukraine Route)

Estonia Germany Estonia Latvia Republic of Türkiye Finland

Source: IEA; Scotiabank GBM.

Source: Bloomberg; Scotiabank GBM.

2023 & 2024 Russian Pipeline Gas to Europe scenarios:

2023 & 2024 Inventory Change scenarios:

Source: entsog; Scotiabank GBM.

Source: entsog; Scotiabank GBM.

Exhibit 12 - EU Gas Inventory Level

Source: entsog; Scotiabank GBM.

2023 & 2024 Other Pipeline Gas to EU scenarios:

Local Natural Gas Supply

2023 & 2024 EU Local Natural Gas Supply scenarios:

China LNG Demand

2023 China LNG Imports scenarios:

2024 China LNG Imports scenarios:

Additional Global LNG Capacity through 2024

Source: Wood Mackenzie; EIA; Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Russian LNG Projects

Arctic LNG-2 (Under construction)

The Western Route

The Northern Sea Route

Capital Costs and Initial Financing

Arctic LNG-2 Break-even

Baltic LNG (Under Construction)

Baltic LNG Break-even

Yakutia LNG (Pre-FID)

Far East LNG (Pre-FID)

Pechora LNG (Pre-FID, likely cancelled)

Vladivostok LNG (Pre-FID)

Upstream Major Projects

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Natural Gas (mmcf/d)

Total Liquid and Gas (mboe/d)

Natural Gas (mmcf/d)

Total Liquid and Gas (mboe/d)

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Surmont Future Phases (COP/TOT JV) Canada NA N 255 255 50 50 0

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Exhibit 18 - Major Projects Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Cassia Compression Trinidad SA N Nov-22 2022 4Q 2023 300 50 70 30

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Exhibit 21 - Major Projects Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Block 20 & 21 Cameia-Golfinho Angola AF Y 2026 2027 70 70 80 20

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Exhibit 24 - Major Project Database Breakdown by Country (Cont'd)

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Satellites Cluster in Block KG D6 India AP N 2021 2Q 2023 270 45 33 66.67