Argus Phosphates

Formerly Argus FMB Phosphates

Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Executive Summary prICES

DAP drops further east Key price assessments $/t

DAP prices fell further east of Suez this week, with a Chi- 19 Jan 12 Jan

nese sale likely concluding at $660/t cfr India, down from Argus DAP index, points 192.204 195.905 u

the high $680s/t cfr last week. DAP/MAP - fob bulk

Activity increased in India, with two Chinese cargoes likely DAP/MAP Tampa 650-670 650-670 34

DAP China 635-660 660-680 u

sold and Saudi Arabian tonnage confirmed. The India cfr
DAP Saudi Arabia 670 675-680 u
price dropped to $660-688/t cfr. Chinese fob levels slipped
MAP Baltic 612-619 607-619 t
accordingly to $635-660/t fob. DAP/MAP – cfr bulk
Pakistan DAP buyers remain on the sidelines, with pur- DAP India 660-688 688-690 u

chases stifled by the high carryover stocks. DAP Pakistan 675-698 700-705 u

European activity remains subdued, with activity expected MAP Brazil 655-660 650-660 t

to pick up next month. West of Suez, MAP firmed by $5/t at Phosphoric acid India/t P 2O5 1,175 1,175 34

DAP - fca
the low end to $655-660/t cfr Brazil. Offers of non-Russian
DAP Benelux fot/fob duty paid/free 785-800 785-805 u
product were heard higher. A trading firm has likely secured
See page 2 for full price table
Moroccan product for shipment to Latin America. DAP Nola
barge prices were higher at $625-645/st fob. Key Indicative Prices USD/t

Brazil MAP cfr Chinese DAP fob India DAP cfr

Market drivers 1,400

Market waits for phosacid settlement 1,200

Participants are keenly awaiting the conclusion of the first-

1,000
quarter phosphoric acid negotiations for the Indian market,
which define the global benchmark. A delegation of some hhhhhhh
800
key Indian players is in Morocco, with an announcement
anticipated shortly. 600

BCIC phosacid tender offers lower 400

The lowest offer under the BCIC acid tender in Bangladesh 20 Jan 22 19 May 22 15 Sep 22 19 Jan 23
equated to $1,036/t P2O5 cfr for 54pc solution. The BCIC
tenders act as bellwethers for the direction of phosphoric Data & Download index
acid prices in the region. Argus assessed fourth-quarter „„ Ferts Phosphates Spot Deals
levels at $1,175/t P2O5 cfr India. „„ Phosphate deliveries to Indian ports
„„ Phosphates producer commitments
30-60 Day Outlook „„ Moroccan phosphate and NPK exports
„„ DAP deliveries to Pakistan
DAP softer still, MAP stable-to-firm „„ MAP deliveries to Brazil
It will be a tale of two halves, with eastern DAP levels still „„ Russian MAP, DAP exports
„„ Phosphoric acid deliveries to Indian ports
set to fall, while western prices will remain firmer in Brazil
„„ India DAP stocks and sales
and the US in the first quarter. Price direction will be deter-
mined by demand, where it is building in Brazil, the US and View the methodology used to assess phosphate prices
Europe. But there is little interest in purchases on the Indian at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback
subcontinent. An increase in Chinese exports in the second is always welcome at [email protected]
quarter will pressure global levels lower.

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 Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

phosphate prices and Derivatives Phosphates prices $/t

19 Jan 12 Jan ±

Direct Hedge - 19 January Argus DAP index, points 192.204 195.905 3.701 u
DAP/MAP/TSP – fob bulk
Month Bid Offer Mid
DAP/MAP Tampa 650-670 650-670 0.00 34

DAP fob Nola (st) DAP/MAP Tampa equivalent Brazil 628-633 620-630 5.50 t
DAP Tampa equivalent India 612-640 640-642 15.00 u
Jan-23 640 650 645 DAP Tunisia 690-730 690-740 5.00 u
Feb-23 645 655 650 DAP Egypt 725-730 740-745 15.00 u
DAP Morocco 695-735 695-750 7.50 u
Mar-23 645 655 650
DAP Morocco P2O5 equiv 1,197.07 1,194.23 2.84 t
1Q 640 655 648 DAP Morocco equivalent US terminals 665-707 660-674 19.00 t

2Q 600 620 610 DAP Lithuania Baltic 740-750 740-750 0.00 34

DAP Russia Baltic/Black Sea 630-670 623-670 3.50 t
MAP Brazil (mt)
DAP China 635-660 660-680 22.50 u
Jan-23 600 640 620 DAP China P2O5 equiv 1,046.08 1,086.48 40.40 u

Feb-23 600 640 620 DAP Saudi Arabia (KSA) 670 675-680 7.50 u
DAP Jordan 662-668 669-675 7.00 u
Mar-23 600 640 620 DAP Mexico 658-685 645-650 24.00 t
DAP/MAP Australia 605-660 605-650 5.00 t
DAP US Gulf domestic barge $/st 625.0-645.0 615.0-625.0 15.00 t
DAP Central Florida railcar $/st 650.0 650.0 0.00 34
DAP China ex-works 546-575 564-578 10.50 u
DAP Benelux fot/fob duty paid/free 785-800 785-805 2.50 u
MAP Baltic 612-619 607-619 2.50 t
Phosphate freight MAP China 11-44 530 530 0.00 34

Rate ($/t) MAP China 10-50 582-594 580-594 1.00 t

Loading Destination Tonnage MAP China 11-52 623-630 618-630 2.50 t
Low/High
MAP Morocco 640-750 640-750 0.00 34
Finished Phosphates MAP Saudi Arabia (KSA) 632-637 627-637 2.50 t
TSP Tunisia 530-535 550-600 42.50 u
Tampa WC India 55-60 47 49
TSP Morocco 510-535 530-605 45.00 u
Morocco Brazil 25-35 19 21 TSP China 488-500 513-520 22.50 u
Tampa Brazil 25-35 26 28 TSP eastern Med (Lebanon/Israel) 530 545-595 40.00 u
SSP 19% P2O5 cfr Brazil 240-250 240-245 2.50 t
Baltic Brazil 25-35 41 43
SSP 20% P2O5 cfr Brazil 270-280 260-270 10.00 t
Baltic India 25-35 60 65 DAP /MAP – cfr bulk
KSA EC India 25-35 18 20 DAP/MAP Argentina/Uruguay 690-700 685-700 2.50 t

China India 45-55 20 25 MAP Brazil 11-52 655-660 650-660 2.50 t

MAP Brazil 11-52 P2O5 equiv 1,067.83 1,056.12 11.71 t
China Pakistan 40-45 25 28 MAP Brazil 10-50 (ex-China) 614-624 609-624 2.50 t
China Brazil 45-55 30 32 MAP Brazil 10-50 (ex-China) P2O5 equiv 1,052.13 1,040.61 11.52 t

China (South) Thailand 6-8 30 34 MAP Brazil 11-44 (ex-China) 557-565 555-560 3.50 t
MAP Brazil 11-44 (ex-China) P 2O5 equiv 1,042.66 1,026.56 16.10 t
Egypt Brazil 30-35 28 30 MAP South Africa 625-635 607-612 20.50 t
Phosphate Rock DAP India 660-688 688-690 15.00 u

Morocco South Brazil 30 19 21 DAP India P2O5 equiv 1,061.15 1,093.76 32.61 u
DAP Pakistan 675-698 700-705 16.00 u
Red Sea WC/EC India 25-35 19 21 DAP Turkey 700-720 700-720 0.00 34
Red Sea Indonesia 25-35 21 23 DAP Romania (bagged fca) 840-850 840-850 0.00 34

Morocco US 25-35 21 23 DAP east coast Africa 700-705 700-705 0.00 34

Raw material contracts $/t

Average imported variable costs of DAP production $/t
±
19 Jan 12 Jan ±
Phosphoric acid/t – P2O5
Imported ammonia and sulphur
cfr China 247.900 253.650 5.75 u
cfr India 4Q22 1,175 3Q22 1,715 540.00 u

cfr India 251.133 256.600 5.47 u cfr western Europe 1Q23 1,230-1,280 4Q22 1,280-1,410 90.00 u

cfr North Africa 267.250 273.733 6.48 u Phosphate rock (% BPL)

cfr US 251.948 255.248 3.30 u fob Jordan (68-70) 4Q22 144 3Q22 204 60.00 u
For further information on how these assessments are calculated, cfr India (68-70) 4Q22 241-242 3Q22 300-310 63.50 u
please click here.
cfr India (70-72) 4Q22 248-249 3Q22 309-319 65.50 u

fob Morocco (69) 4Q22 230-286 3Q22 295-325 52.00 u

Argus freight rates are assessed in consultation with fob Algeria (65-68) 4Q22 134-140 3Q22 170-175 35.50 u

fob Egypt (66) Dec22 110 Nov22 110-120 5.00 u

producers, traders and buyers and freight broker service
fob Egypt (57-61) Dec22 68-74 Nov22 75-82 7.50 u
provider Nueva Seas. cfr Southeast Asia (57-61) Dec22 104-108 Nov22 116-120 12.00 u

Sulphur
Follow us on Twitter @ArgusMediaFertz cfr Tampa 1Q23 130 4Q22 90 40.00 t

cfr north Africa 1Q23 156-165 4Q22 103-130 44.00 t

for market insights from our editors.
Ammonia
cfr Tampa Jan23 975 Dec22 1,030 55.00 u

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Issue Ref: 158128

Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Selected Spot Sales - 12 January

Origin Seller Buyer Destination Volume ('000t) Price Delivery Period

Saudi Arabia Ma'aden TBC India 100 DAP $690/t cfr Jan loading
China TBC TBC India 50 DAP $660/t cfr Feb loading
China TBC TBC India 10 DAP low $680s/t cfr Jan loading
China TBC TBC Brazil 25 MAP 11-44 around $525/t fob TBC
Russia TBC TBC Latam, multiple 50 DAP total around $630/t fob

Recent 2022/23 phosphate tenders

Holder/Country Product Volume ('000t) Closing date Shipment Status

EABC/Ethiopia NPS 1284 30-Sep 2022-23 Awarded

BCIC/Bangladesh Phosacid 30 12-Oct Offers in
BCIC/Bangladesh Phosacid 10 25-Oct Offers in
KSCL/Nepal DAP 20 14-Nov Offers in
One Acre Fund/Kenya DAP 4 17-Nov On or before January Awarded $740/t cfr eq.
UNFAO/Sri Lanka TSP 36 22-Nov TBC
NCIC/Egypt DAP, TSP, phosacid 30, 30, 30 1-Dec End Dec loading sales tender Likely awarded
RCF/India white/off-white DAP 50 13-Dec No offers
FACT/India Phosphate rock 40 19-Dec January Awarded mid-$260s/t cfr
Pupuk/Indonesia DAP 25 22-Dec March-June Offers in
NCIC/Egypt DAP, TSP, phosacid 15, 30, 10 9-Jan End Jan loading sales tender Likely awarded
RCF/India DAP/MAP, phosrock 40, 35 9-Jan DAP/MAP two lots up to Feb, March Offers in
BCIC/Bangladesh Phosphate rock 25 17-Jan Offers in
BCIC/Bangladesh Phosacid 30 18-Jan Offers in
NFL/India DAP 100 1-Feb By 15 March Open
KSCL/Nepal DAP 20 3-Feb Open
BCIC/Bangladesh phosacid 30 6-Mar three lots within 30-40 days of opening L/C Open

the phosphates world this week

Russia - Sales of DAP to Latam

concluded around $630/t fob
US - DAP barge prices lifted
to $625-645/st fob Nola on
reported sales
China - DAP prices slipped
to $635-660/t fob reflecting
sales to India
Morocco - A trader has likely
secured Moroccan product
destined for Latam

India - Chinese and Saudi Arabian

Brazil - MAP prices cargoes were confirmed, with
firmed by $5/t on the low Chinese DAP likely bought at
end to $655-660/t cfr $660/t cfr

Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section.
For more information visit http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

North America

US
Mosaic had no new export sales to report. DAP maintained its uncommon premium over MAP for the
11th week in a row amid less availability and a thin DAP im-
US domestic port lineup. Trades framed the MAP range at $595-618/st fob
Nola barge phosphate prices increased this week amid rising Nola, a $1.50/st increase from the midpoint of last week’s
demand. range.
The low end of the DAP range climbed by $10/st from MAP barges changed hands at $610-618/st fob Nola on
last week to $625/st fob Nola on reported trade. Offers for Friday. Earlier this week, MAP traded at $595/st fob Nola for
domestic volumes framed the high end at $645/st fob Nola, imported tons and $615/st for domestic volumes.
a $20/st increase. Market participants have indicated in recent weeks that
DAP barges for near-term delivery changed hands at $640/ they expect phosphate supply in the US to tighten some
st fob Nola and $625/st on Friday. Another was sold at $640/ amid a projected recovery in demand, reduced production
st fob Nola for delivery in the second half of February/first levels and fewer imports. One producer said it anticipates
half of March, outside of the assessment window. A DAP that there will be enough supply to meet near-term demand
barge also traded at $642/st fob Nola for shipment in the but that the US will need more imports to achieve a better
first half of March. supply-demand balance.

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Brazil January MAP imports

Itaqui

Barra dos Coqueiros

Aratu

Russia -
Santos 204,000t
Antonina Paranagua
Tubarao
Porto Alegre US - 9,000t
Rio Grande

Port '000t
250
Aratu 19
Morocco - 36,000t
Barcarena 10 200

Itaqui 9
150
Rio Grande 76
Santos 86
100
SFS 10
Vila do Conde 9
50
Vitoria 44
Total 288
0
— Unimar, Argus

USD/BRL
Central and Latin America
USD/BRL
5.60 Brazil
5.50 MAP prices firmed by $5/t at the low end to $655-660/t cfr.
5.40 No fresh MAP business emerged this week, with partici-
5.30 pants likely holding back from some deals until a major
5.20 regional conference at the end of the month. MAP 11-44 re-
5.10 hhhhhhhhhhh
mains indicated at around $560-565/t cfr, with trading firms
5.00 having purchased Chinese product in anticipation of a return
4.90
to Brazilian demand in the coming weeks. Another 25,000t
4.80
of Chinese 11-44 was likely purchased by a trading firm this
4.70
week. Some are not willing to offer on the sell side for now.
4.60
Crop affordability certainly supports a bullish argument.
Jan 22 Mar 22 May 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Dec 22
Front-month CBOT soybean futures were firmer at $15.25/
MAP cfr Brazil vs soybean barter rate USD/t, bags/t bushel yesterday, up from $15.15/bu a week earlier. Corn
front-month futures prices were $6.81/bu yesterday, up from
MAP bulk Brazil cfr (LHS) $6.56/bu last week.
Soybeans Rondonopolis barter rate 60kg bag per 1t NPK (RHS)
1,400 30 Parana harvesting, sowing stopped by rains
Harvesting and sowing activities in Brazil's southern state of
1,200
25 Parana were interrupted this week as heavy rains hampered
1,000 work and the quality of soybean crops marginally worsened.
20 The 2022-23 first corn crop harvest remains in its early
800 stages and has yet to reach 1pc of Parana's total planted
15 area. The current pace is one percentage point behind last
600
year's 2021-22 harvest, according to the state's department
400 10 of rural economics (Deral).
20 Jan 22 12 May 22 25 Aug 22 22 Dec 22

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Francisco Beltrao continues to be the only city with ongo- Argentina

ing harvesting, as works reached 3pc of its sowed area by Indications firmed slightly to $690-700/t cfr, with MAP at the
the week ended 16 January. low end and DAP at the high.
First corn crops in good conditions are estimated at 79pc, Demand has slowed from last week, but some trading
while those rated in medium and bad quality account for firms anticipate a pick up in activity to come. A trading firm
18pc and 3pc, respectively. is reportedly offering MAP 10-50 at $660/t cfr.

Winter corn Central America

The 2022-23 second corn crop sowing is halted at 1pc of its A trading firm has likely secured a Moroccan DAP/MAP
expected area, down from the 2pc planted a year ago. combination cargo for a buyer. But the deal could not be
Deral projects that 100pc of sowed crops are in good confirmed by press time.
condition.

Soybean
This season's soy harvest has yet to begin, according to Europe and former Soviet Union
Deral's weekly survey, behind last year's 4pc for the 2021-22
crop. But market participants report that some areas have Benelux
been harvested occasionally. Argus assessed DAP at $785-800/t fca Benelux, with some
Harvest in Parana state reached 0.1pc of estimated plant- indicating levels as low as $750/t fca. A producer reports
ed area, according to Patria consultancy, which estimates offers at €765/t fca Ghent equivalent.`
works across the country at 0.85pc, compared to a historical
average of 1.27pc. France
The soybean crop quality was slightly down this week. DAP is listed at €760/t fca Rouen. A producer indicated DAP
Areas rated in bad conditions rose to 5pc, from 4pc in the at €760/t fca French Bay.
previous week. Aareas in good condition remained at 80pc.
And medium quality crops fell to 15pc. Germany
A supplier is offering DAP at around $800/t fca.
Brazil's soybean planting virtually complete
Planting for Brazil's 2022-23 soybean crop is virtually com- Ireland
plete and is ahead of year-earlier levels. DAP is indicated at around $795-800/t cfr. A DAP sale was
Planting through the week ended 14 January reached likely concluded in the mid $790s/t cfr for Egyptian product
99.2pc completion, up by 0.3 of a percentage point from the by a trading firm, shipping in combination with urea.
previous week. The 2022-23 pace was 0.2 of a percentage
point ahead of last season's sowing at the same time, ac- Italy
cording to national supply company Conab. Italian importers received offers for Egyptian DAP at $790-
Sowing is complete in Tocantins, Bahia, Mato Grosso, Mato 800/t cfr this week.
Grosso do Sul, Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Parana and
Santa Catarina states. Romania
Activities in Rio Grande do Sul state, expected to be DAP remains indicated notionally stable at $840-850/t
Brazil's second-largest soybean producer, advanced to 98pc bagged fca.
complete from 97pc previously.
The oilseed harvest has begun in some areas in Bahia that Russia
have their own irrigation systems, according to Conab. But A producer has sold 50,000t of DAP to multiple destinations
there is no official data yet. in Latin America at around $630/t fob equivalent. The sales
Conab monitors the 12 largest soybean-producing states will mostly load next month. No fresh MAP sales emerged.
— Tocantins, Maranhao, Piaui, Bahia, Mato Grosso, Mato
Grosso do Sul, Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa
Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul — which account for 96pc of
the area planted nationwide.

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Exports from Jorf Lasfar in Morocco

Fixed exports from Jorf Lasfar ‘000t Product ratio this month ‘000t

1,200 DAP MAP NPK/NPS TSP Product TBC DAP MAP NPK/NPS TSP Product TBC

37
1,000 57

44
800

600

400 118

200
142
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2021 2022
Total: 398

Top OCP destinations since Jan ‘22 ‘000t Top destinations of OCP DAP since Jan ‘22 ‘000t

DAP MAP NPK/NPS TSP

Tanzania 149
Argentina

Nigeria 175
Bangladesh

Pakistan 200
Djibouti

Bangladesh 442
Brazil

India 2,035
India

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Top destinations of OCP MAP since Jan ‘22 ‘000t

Africa and Middle East

Morocco Spain 84
OCP had no new sales to report this week. It emerged at
press time that the producer had sold a DAP/MAP combina- TBC 88
tion cargo to buyer in central America under a tender, but
details could not be confirmed. Market participants indicate Argentina 303
DAP at around $730-735/t fob for Europe, setting the high
end of this week's assessment.
US 391

Saudi Arabia
Brazil 880
Ma'aden has confirmed 100,000t of DAP will load for India
this month, priced around $690/t cfr. The producer will also 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
load 50,000t of MAP for Australia in January, priced under
formula.
Argus Direct subscribers can download this data on Jorf
Lasfar fertilizer exports here

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Egypt
A trading firm was offering Egyptian DAP in Italy, likely with
tonnage secured under this month's tender. The DAP assess-
ment fell to $725-730/t fob in line with latest indications.
Argus is excited to
announce the launch
of Argus Workspaces
Tunisia
There were no new deals reported. Argus assessed DAP at
$690-730/t fob, reflecting latest indications from partici-
pants.

Jordan
JPMC has yet to sell its February-loading DAP cargo.

South Africa
Domestic phosphate offtake is minimal now that planting
is close to finished. No further imports have emerged since
22,000t of Russian MAP unloaded in Durban as reported last
week. MAP import prices lifted to $625-635/t cfr on indica-
tions relative to prices in Brazil.
Argus Workspaces provide an easier and
interactive way for you to get the most out
East Africa
No further buying for import emerged this week. But there of your Argus subscription. You can analyse
is some interest for February-March shipments. pricing data and news by building your own
Negotiations between state-run Kenyan National Trading dashboard that is tailored to fit your needs.
Corporation (KNTC) and the private sector to ensure March-
May planting season demand is met are ongoing. KNTC has With Workspaces you can:
invited distributors to indicate their current stock availabil- • Find relevant information more quickly and
ity and price offers. easily by showing only what’s relevant to you

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that makes sense to you
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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Indian subcontinent
Pakistan
India Pakistani demand for DAP imports remains minimal. Argus
The DAP market had remained relatively calm this week assessed this week's price at a notional premium to DAP cfr
until new deals emerged today. India.
A trading firm has likely sold 50,000t of Chinese DAP at Domestic offtake is still low but has increased slightly
$660/t cfr, loading next month. The sale could not be con- since last week. Distributors’ indications of domestic sales
firmed on the sell side by press time, but set the low end of ranged Rs9,000-9,350/bag ex-Karachi.
this week's range. Another deal for 10,000t of Chinese DAP, Producers expect demand from farmers to increase from
likely concluded by a trading firm in the $680s/t cfr in com- next month in preparation for maize and sugar cane sowing.
bination with amsul. Ma'aden confirmed sales of 100,000t of Domestic phosphate producer Fauji expects to ramp up
DAP at around $690/t cfr, loading this month. DAP production in the second half of February. The com-
pany’s Port Qasim plant shut down on 21 December.
DAP stocks build higher in 2022
DAP inventories rose by 96,000t in December, latest provi- Top 5 DAP importers since April ‘22 ‘000t
sional government data show.
Production was 439,000t, with imports at 537,000t, and
Mosaic 485
sales of 880,000t. Net stock build last year was 552,000t,
compared with a drop of 1.64mn t. Local sources indicated
NFL 748
DAP stocks at around 2mn t at the end of 2022.

NFL issues DAP purchase tender Chambal 865

NFL has issued a tender to buy 100,000t of DAP for shipment

by 15 March. Kribhco 1,027

The tender closes on 1 February.

The importer requested two lots of 50,000t, one to be IPL 1,733
shipped to the east coast, and the other to the west coast of
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
India.
NFL last closed a tender on 21 November 2022 to buy a
India DAP imports by origin since April ‘22 ‘000t
total of 100,000t of DAP during the end of December, but
later scrapped it.
US 227
RCF tender prices emerge
One trading firm is reportedly lowest under RCF's finished Russia 890
phosphates tender, offering two lots of 20,000t of DAP 18-46
at $697.75/t and $699.25/t cfr, respectively, sources told Ar- China 1,173
gus. Another trading firm offered two MAP 10-50 lots under
the enquiry. Morocco 1,738
RCF closed the tender on 9 January.
RCF has requested delivery to the west coast port of Mum- Saudi Arabia 1,902
bai. The first 20,000t lot of DAP/MAP is to be shipped up to
February, and the second up to March. It is not yet clear if 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

an award will take place.

To download the latest data for Indian DAP imports
since January 2017, please click here

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

East Asia and Oceania

China Thailand
DAP prices fell to $635-660/t fob based on latest reported DAP indications from China were at around $700/t cfr this
business and indications. week, but no firm offers emerged.
Reports of the sale of Chinese DAP to India at $660/t cfr, Importers are expected to return to the market after the
loading next month, emerged at press time, defining the low lunar new year period to start purchasing cargoes in prepa-
end of this week's range. ration for the domestic main application season starting
Reports of a 10,000t DAP sale also emerged this week, but from April.
the price was undisclosed. A trading firm sold the cargo in
combination with ammonium sulphate to an Indian buyer in Philippines
early January for prompt loading from south China. Other There were no DAP offers seen this week as Chinese sup-
market participants have reported the DAP deal to be pliers stopped export offers ahead of their spring holiday
concluded in the low-$680s/t cfr India, reflecting net backs season. Import demand is soft, with importers’ inventories
to around $660/t fob. The producer for this cargo confirmed still high with stocks carried over from last year thanks to
that they sent the cargo for customs inspections in July last weaker domestic consumption.
year, and only received approval for loading this week.
Indicative net backs from offers to Thailand are in the Myanmar
$670s/t fob, while a river producer indicated offers in the Offers for DAP 16-45 of Vietnamese origin emerged this week
$660s/t fob for 5,000t of DAP. No deals were reported at at around $680/t cif Yangon.
those levels.
The Chinese market was generally inactive this week South Korea
ahead of the lunar new year holiday during 21-27 January. DAP imports in 2022 were up by 17pc on the year to 93,500t,
Producers are likely to start offering cargoes for export from latest trade data show. China remains the leading supplier in
February onwards. Clarity regarding Chinese export restric- 2022, with deliveries up by 11pc on the year to 78,000t. But
tions and export quota is also expected to emerge after the imports from Vietnam fell by 32pc on the year to 7,000t.
lunar new year holiday. South Korea imported 12,500t of DAP in December 2022,
In the export market, offers for granular MAP 11-44 firmed up from 7,700t a year earlier. China accounted for 10,900t,
to $530-550/t fob because of tight spot supplies and stronger up from 700t a year earlier.
Chinese yuan against the US dollar. A few lots of granular 11-
44 were concluded in $525-530/t fob China for shipments to Australia
Brazil this week, indicating a $5/t increase from last week. Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden confirmed that it will load 50,000t of
One producer reportedly sold 25,000t of granular MAP 11-44 MAP this month, priced on formula.
at around $525/t fob for Brazil.

China domestic
Prices for DAP remained stable at Yn3,800-3,900/t ex-works
in eastern China, while prices softened to Yn3,700-3,800/t
ex-works in the river area and southern regions. Distributors
were cautious to stockpile mainly because of a significant
fall in sulphur prices.
Major producers kept production unchanged before the
lunar new year holiday, with the overall run rates at 40-45pc
in river area and around 50pc in Yunnan and Guizhou.
Argus Phosphate Rock Analytics
Comprehensive forecast data and analysis
MAP prices generally held flat at Yn3,400-3,450/t ex-works
for powdered MAP 11-44, and prices for powdered MAP 10-50
firmed to Yn3,900-4,000/t ex-works because of tight supply. Annual strategic report
Domestic MAP trading was generally slow in the past few Quarterly price forecasts 35+ 55+ 90+
weeks as NPK plants were reluctant to accept higher prices. Bi-annual data updates countries
represented
companies
networked
production
units
Some smaller producers have been eager to sell cargoes to
increase their cash before the holiday, lead to slightly lower For more information, visit:
prices. www.argusmedia.com/argus-processed-phosphates-analytics

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

Phosphate rock in the first half of 2023. Today, the Multicargo Terminal has
one warehouse with static capacity of 25,000t and will soon
India have three warehouses with 75,000t of covered static capac-
Prices under RCF tender emerge ity. The new warehouses will bring an additional operational
One trading firm offered 35,000t of phosphate rock at capacity of 500,000 t/yr and 550,000 t/yr for copper con-
$245.26/t cfr, with the other offer at $245.45/t cfr. The rock centrate and fertilizers, respectively.
is to have a minimum P2O5 content of 32pc. Eurochem phosphate rock was beneficiated in the Serra
RCF closed the tender on 9 January. do Salitre project — in Brazil's Minas Gerais state — which
RCF has requested delivery to the west coast port of Mum- was bought by the firm in February 2022. The mine and the
bai. The rock cargo should be shipped within 30 days from phosphate rock beneficiation plant are operating, while fer-
the purchase order. tilizer production is expected to begin in 2024. The Russian
firm expects the facility's annual capacity to reach 1mn t of
Bangladesh MAP/NP and TSP/SSP.
BCIC closes tender to buy phosphate rock
Bangladeshi fertilizer importer and manufacturer BCIC Australia
closed a tender today to buy 25,000t of phosphate rock, Centrex eyes regular phosrock shipments
receiving one offer from a trading firm. Australian mining firm Centrex has announced that it is now
A trading firm offered a cargo of Jordanian phosphate rock set to complete monthly deliveries of phosphate rock, ramp-
at $329.85/t cfr. ing up volumes.
BCIC requested that the rock has a minimum BPL grade of The firm said that it shipped 19,500t of beneficiated phos-
72pc and that completion takes place within 30 days of the phate rock in the fourth quarter and that it is aiming to sell
opening of letters of credit. 26,000t of product this quarter, and targets sales of 45,000t
in the second quarter of this year.
Brazil Centrex has already allocated three years of production
Açu exports Eurochem's Salitre phosphate rock to buyers including Australian fertilizer producer Incitec
Russia-based fertilizer producer Eurochem is exporting Pivot, Swiss trading group Ameropa, South Korean trading
22,000 metric tonnes (t) of Serra do Salitre's phosphate rock group Samsung, and New Zealand co-operatives Ballance
via the Açu port, in Rio de Janeiro state. and Ravensdown. The company expects to complete further
That is the first time Açu has exported phosphate rock to long-term offtake agreement negotiations with buyers early
Europe. this year.
The export process is part of an agreement between Euro- The firm operates the Ardmore phosphate project in
chem and Açu, according to Joao Braz, the port's director of Queensland, Australia, through its wholly owned subsidiary
terminals and logistics. Agriflex. All shipments are via the port of Townsville in the
The cargo is heading to Antwerp port, in Belgium, in a northeastern state of Queensland.
deal between Eurochem Brazil and Eurochem Belgium, Centrex produced 26,800t of beneficiated phosphate rock
according to a source heard by Argus. The phosphate rock from 38,900t of ore last quarter, according to today's results
beneficiated in Brazil may be used as raw material in Euro- report. The firm mined a total of 53,800t in October-Decem-
chem's European units. ber.
The agreement between Eurochem and Açu foresees more At the start of this year, the firm held 37,200t of mined
cargoes to be exported until mid-2024. Açu port expects ore and 16,000t of crushed ore in stock.
volumes through the Açu-Antwerp logistics corridor to reach Centrex's first shipment of beneficiated phosphate rock
100,000t-130,000t in 2023. was 500t of 34.6pc P2O5 in September last year to an
The arrangement reinforces Açu's strategy of expanding its Australian buyer. The firm concluded its first international
fertilizer operations. The port has "a proven logistical flow shipment in November.
and the support of municipal and state governments" and Ardmore has total ore reserves of 10.1mn t of 30.2pc P2O5
"can operate several loads of fertilizers," Braz said. phosphate rock, according to an update published in August
Açu port has made Rio de Janeiro a relevant state for 2021. The firm has dedicated A$1.9mn ($1.3mn) towards
Brazil's fertilizer sector since 2020. To meet the terminal's further drilling and metallurgical test work at its northern
growing demand, the port will triple its Multicargo Termi- deposit, which may allow higher reserves to be reported and
nal's static storage capacity by opening two new warehouses extend the mine's current stated lifetime of 10 years.

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

South Africa Phosphoric acid

Emerging phosphate producer Kropz announced the appoint-
ment of Louis Loubser as chief executive with immediate Bangladesh
effect on 16 January. BCIC receives offers for phosacid tender
Previous chief executive Mark Summers has now left the BCIC closed a tender to buy three lots of 10,000t of phos-
board. phoric acid on 18 January, receiving offers from two suppli-
Kropz operates a phosphate rock project in Elandsfontein. ers.
In March 2022 Kropz announced the first production of 31pc A trading firm offered all three lots at $559.50/t cfr on a
P2O5 rock and in October the company said it held 18,500t 52-54pc solution basis, equating to $1,036-1,076/t P2O5 cfr.
of phosphate rock concentrate in stock. A Chinese supplier offered three lots at $633.96/t,
The company recently published an update on the project, $645.30/t and $660.96/t cfr, reflecting a range of $1,173-
downgrading the volume and quality of the estimated total 1,271/t P2O5 cfr.
reserve to 17.42mn t with a weighted average grade of 9.2pc The three lots should ship to Chittagong within 30, 35 and
P2O5. 40 days respectively of the opening of the letters of credit.
BCIC had delayed the tender's close multiple times since 5
December 2022.
TSP Prices of phosphoric acid have fallen in line with a lower
trend in DAP levels east of Suez in recent months. Offers
Brazil under BCIC's October purchase tender had ranged from the
TSP remains priced at $520-530/t cfr. high $680s to high $690s/t cfr on a solution basis.
BCIC tenders act are a bellwether for the direction of
Morocco phosphoric acid prices in the region. Market participants
Argus assessed TSP lower at $510-535/t fob to reflect Brazil- are keenly awaiting the settlement of first-quarter contracts
ian cfr levels and lower indications from market partici- between producers and key buyers in India, which will set
pants. the global benchmark. Argus assessed fourth-quarter levels
at $1,175/t P2O5 cfr India.
Tunisia
TSP fell to $530-535/t fob, reflecting lower prices indicated BCIC issues phosacid tender
across north Africa. GCT did not comment on price levels. BCIC has also issued a tender to buy 30,000t of 52-54pc P2O5
phosphoric acid in three 10,000t lots.
France The tender closes on 6 March. BCIC has requested delivery
TSP is listed at €660/t fca Rouen, but participants deem this of all three lots to Chittagong within 30, 35, and 40 days,
level unrealistic. respectively, of the opening of the letters of credit.

SSP Tunisia
A supplier was in the market to ship an acid cargo from Tuni-
Brazil sia to India, loading 5-15 February.
19pc SSP rose to $240-250/t cfr this week, with a trading
firm selling 4,000t of Egyptian product at the low end.
Fresh offers set the high end, with some participants
indicating levels up to $260/t cfr. But these have yet to be
achieved. 20pc SSP levels firmed to $270-280/t cfr.

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Argus Phosphates Issue 23-3  |  Thursday 19 January 2023

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