The prices presented herein are strictly the opinion of CMAI and are based on information collected within

the
public sector and on assessments by CMAI staff. CMAI MAKES NO GUARANTEE OR WARRANTY AND
ASSUMES NO LIABILITY AS TO THEIR USE.
Copyright CMAI 2011 All Rights Reserved
METHANOL
MARKET REPORT
WEEKLY
CMAI - EUROPE
Nigel Suttie
Tel: 44-207-930-9818
[email protected]
CMAI - ASIA
Cathy Wang
Tel: 86-21-6163-5470
[email protected]
LOCALE
Current Week
Local Currency
Last Week Local
Currency Current Week $/MT Last Week $/MT
U.S. FOB, USGC 109.25 /Gal 111.5 /Gal 363 371
W. Europe FOB, Rotterdam, T2 261 /MT 267 /MT 369 374
China CIF, Main Ports 341 333
Korea CIF, Main Ports 343 338
Taiwan CIF, Main Ports 343 333
SE Asia CIF, Main Ports 343 338
METHANOL MARKET PRICES
Pricing Terms
This report is for the exclusive use of the client company. Distribution outside of the client company is strictly
prohibited without prior written consent of Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI).
CMAI - HOUSTON
Dewey Johnson
Tel: 281-752-3213
[email protected]
MARCH 25, 2011
ISSUE NO. 1457
[email protected]
CMAI - HOUSTON
Marc Laughlin
Tel: 281-752-3271
[email protected]
$60 $75
$70 $60
South America West Europe Northeast Asia
369 $ 342 $
$40
$35
North America Middle East Southeast Asia
363 $ $65 343 $
Arbitrage *Producer Margin
SA to NA - $ SA to NA 183 $
SA to WEP (22) $ Spot Price SA to WEP 161 $
SA to NEA (54) $ Freight SA to NEA 129 $
MDE to NA (9) $ MDE to NA 214 $
MDE to WEP 0 $ MDE to WEP 223 $
MDE to NEA - $ March pricing. MDE to NEA 223 $
Units: -000- Metric Tons; NAM and WEP prices Spot FOB, NEA and SEA prices Spot CIF
*Producer margins represent CMAI estimates of regional averages.
Methanol Trade: Arbitrage & Producer Margins ~
Inside:
Demographics of Chinas methanol capacity and implications on pricing
EMethanex is ramping-up production in Egypt
China prices stabilize and exhibit frming
Highlights: China market sentiment frmed this week with more active business being conducted. Supply
appeared tighter due to several turnarounds from large methanol producers in inland China with maintenance
schedules in April. Spot prices are reported at $340-$345 per metric ton, CFR basis, depending on the location,
for April deliveries. Methanex this week confrmed that the Damietta plant (1,260 Kta) is producing IMPCA
quality methanol. The frst vessel loading will occur within the next two weeks. In Iran, all the plants have
continued operating over the Noruz (Persian New Year) holiday period with Zagros (3,300 Kta) and Kharg
(660 Kta) running at full capacity and Fanavaran (1,000 Kta) in the mid 80 percents. NOCs methanol plant
(660 Kta) at Marsa Al Brega is shutdown. Shell Deutschlands Wesseling plant (400 Kta) remains down for
planned maintenance and is not expected back until the 15
th
April. CMAI will post this weeks European spot
methanol price range at 259-263 per metric ton, FOB Rotterdam T2, down an average 6 per metric ton on
the previous week. The Americas continues in a solid demand pattern with some supply turnarounds expected in
April. CMAI will post this weeks Americas spot market at 109.25 cents per gallon ($363 per metric ton) FOB
Houston, down 2.25 cents per gallon from the previous weeks average posting.
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 2
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
World Industry Overview
When viewing capacity addi-
tions from 2010 through 2015, it
appears that there is still a large
volume of capacity to come on-
stream later this year. In fact,
most of this capacity was start-
ed up in 2010 sometime in the
middle of the year, and the total
nameplate capacity was prorated
so that the full capacity was seen
over a two year period. While
the yellow in 2011 represents the
startup of the Emethanex plant
in Egypt and the teal represents
additional capacity starting up
in North America and capacity
restarting in Chile, most of the
new capacity is seen starting up
in China over the next three years.
The average size plant in China, when considering all plants from the capacity database, is about 205 thou-
sand metric tons. In reality, the average size of operational plants in China is much larger, closer to 300
thousand metric tons. This is because of the wide range and large number of plants located in China. Cur-
rently, there are 47 Chinese plants with less than 100 Kta nameplate capacity, 72 plants with 100-200 Kta
nameplate capacity, 34 plants with 220-500 Kta nameplate capacity, and 12 plants with greater than 500
Kta capacity. The majority of plants with less than 200 Kta capacity do not regularly produce methanol
because of economic reasons, or because they can swing between methanol and ammonia production.
While on a nameplate basis, it would appear methanol is in a cycle trough. However, the demographics
and cost structure of the large marginal production block in China as well as the fuels-driven demand
growth of China begins to highlight that the ascent to higher operating rates and higher prices are expected
after bottoming mid-year this year and rising steadily thereafter.
Americas
From March 23
rd
to March 24
th
, CMAI held its 26
th
Annual World Petrochemical Conference with a record
attendance in Houston, Texas. Some key takeaways from the conference include:
The global economy has managed through a very slow recovery from one of the deepest reces-
sions in history only to have the threat of rising oil prices temper expectations due to the high risk
they present. Assuming that oil and commodity prices remain neutral to growth, the world GDP is
anticipated to grow in the range of 3.6-4.2 percent per year through 2015.
The prospect of increased crude oil supply from non-OPEC sources is limited and thus the petro-
leum markets will continue to depend upon OPEC to meet future needs. The feasible range for
oil pricing is $70-$100 per barrel. The $70 per barrel is the cost for the needed marginal production
(Canadian oil sands and deep water) to meet demand. The $100 per barrel and above oil price is the
expected pricing as OPEC capacity is needed to meet demand growth and historically incremental
demand on OPEC spare capacity has meant increasing prices.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Americas Europe
Middle East & Africa Asia
World Avg. Operating Rate
~
World Methanol Capacity Additions
Million Metric Tons
Operating Rate, Percent
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 3
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
North American natural gas prices will remain substantially lower than crude oil on an equivalent
energy basis throughout the forecast period due to the development of shale gas supplies and are
expected to be in the $5-$6/MMBTU range at least through 2015.
The U.S Chemical industry is repositioned to be a manufacturing base for exports for products
derived from natural gas as the shale gas sector continues to increase reserves and productivity.
The methanol market was very quiet over the week. Some of this may be attributed to the focus of many
industry players having turned toward preparation for the upcoming National Petrochemical and Refners
Association (NPRA) conference in San Antonio, Texas. From a regional supply perspective, the restart of
Methanex (470 Kta) in Medicine Hat, Canada is in the very near future with a planned start-up of early
2Q2011. Market sources indicate that one of the Metor plants (2@850 Kta) is scheduled for a turnaround
for the month of April, however, this is not confrmed at this time. It is also possible that a turnaround at
Metor 2 may sequentially follow the initial turnaround event. Energy prices also remain above $105 per
barrel for West Texas Intermediate, an indication of the continuing underlying pressure for upward pric-
ing.
Demand appears to be solid in the region. Formaldehyde demand continues its slow arduous recovery.
Acetic acid in the U.S. continues to operate at capacity. MTBE plants are operating at capacity with sig-
nifcant margins. The MMA sector continues to operate at high rates.
The spot market was generally
quiet with the bid-offer range
for the week mostly hovering
around 108-110 cents per gal-
lon. The reported deals done this
week for April delivery include
2.5 Kt at 109.25 cpg, FOB Hous-
ton basis. Also 5 Kt at 111.75
cpg, FOB St. Rose was done
for April delivery. Based upon
the known spot market transac-
tions for this week, CMAI will
post this weeks Americas spot
market at 109.25 cents per gal-
lon ($363 per metric ton) FOB
Houston, down 2.25 cents per
gallon from the previous weeks
average posting.
Methanex posted its methanol non-discounted reference-price for April at a price of 128 cents per gallon (a
rollover from last month). Southern Chemical is not expected to post its April contract price until NPRA or
shortly after but CMAI anticipates that a rollover from last month is likely. CMAIs contract net transac-
tion price for March is offcially posted at 126.4 cents per gallon (nominal $420 per metric ton).
30
60
90
120
150
180
211
241
271
301
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
08 Apr Jul Oct 09 Apr Jul Oct 10 Apr Jul Oct Dec Apr Jul Sep Dec
Weekly Methanol Prices
U.S. Gulf, Rotterdam, Asia
Rotterdam Spot, T-2 China Spot, CIF
Korea/Taiwan Spot, CIF U.S. Spot, Gulf Coast
Dollars Per Metric Ton
~
Cents Per Gallon
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 4
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
Middle East / Africa / India Operations
Methanex this week confrmed that the Damietta plant (1,260 Kta) was now producing IMPCA quality
methanol. No details were given on the production rate, but it is assumed that rates would now be in ex-
cess of 2.5kt per day. The frst vessel loading will occur within the next two weeks. In Iran, all the plants
have continued operating over the Noruz (Persian New Year) holiday period with Zagros (3,300 Kta) and
Kharg (660 Kta) running at full capacity and Fanavaran (1,000 Kta) in the mid 80 percents. Fanavaran
will take a turnaround from the 21
st
April until the 22
nd
May. NOCs methanol plant (660 Kta) at Marsa
Al Brega is shutdown. GNFC will take a turnaround on their Bharuch plant (296 Kta) in the third week
of April (see text for details).

Europe / Russia / Ukraine Operations
Shell Deutschlands Wesseling plant (400 Kta) remains down for planned maintenance and is not expected
back until the 15
th
April. Eurochem Nevinomyssk (120 Kta) will commence their catalyst change at
the beginning of April, which is expected to take 30 days and will include the acetic acid unit (160
Kta). Eurochems Novomoskovsk plant (360 Kta) will take a turnaround mid April, which is expected
to last 30 days. Viromet restarted their Victoria unit on the 26
th
February (200 Kta). BP Refning &
Petrochemicals will take a 30 day turnaround on their Gelsenkirchen plant starting mid May. SSME
Azot has fxed the turnaround date for their acetic acid unit (180 Kta) for the 15
th
April, which is expected
to last 6 weeks. Their methanol unit is unaffected and will continue to run, but likely the operating rate
will be signifcantly cutback. MSK at Kikinda (200 Kta) remains down for economic reasons. Looking
further out into Q2, both Total Raffnerie Mitteldeutschland at Leuna (660 Kta) and BioMCN at Delfzijl
(500 Kta) will take turnarounds in June for respectively 30 and 25 days. Shchekinoazot are confdent
they will start up the new plant (450 Kta) at the beginning of July.
Current Market
The market seemed very subdued this week following the Methanex settlement of their Q2 European
posted contract price at 305 per metric ton, FOB Rotterdam T2 last Thursday. Players were genuinely
surprised at the speed of the settlement, leaving producers complaining that a rollover would have been
their target and a number of consumers looking for a number below 300 per metric ton. At close of
play on Friday little progress appeared to have been made in reaching an agreement on the Q2 contract.
NPRA starting this weekend certainly drew some players away from their desks, but not enough to prevent
a settlement. It now looks that Thursday next week will be the earliest date for an agreement as most
felt that NPRA would be the right place for a settlement. One thing for sure is that the ceiling for the
WECP has been set at 305. What remains to be seen now is whether buyers can break the 300 barrier.
The spot market reacted negatively to the Methanex 305 Q2 posting and immediately fell to 263 on
Monday, when a Q2 strip (3x1kt) was concluded between a trader seller and a European producer buyer.
On Tuesday, an April 1kt parcel was heard concluded at 260 and then on Wednesday a 1kt April parcel
at 259 and a Q2 strip (3x1kt) at 260 between a trader and the same European producer. A May 1kt deal
was heard concluded at 261. A Russian April parcel was reported concluded at 257 per metric ton CFR
T1 basis. The global producer was less evident in the spot market this week perhaps a signal of the new
supply expected from the Damietta plant.
Based on the April deals identifed in the market place, CMAI will post this weeks spot methanol price
range at 259-263 per metric ton, FOB Rotterdam T2, down an average 6 per metric ton on last weeks
March range and down by an average 13 per metric ton on the April range. The forward month (May) is
posted at 260-263 per metric ton, FOB Rotterdam T2.
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 5
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
The bearish sentiment in the Indian market grew this week with traders dropping port prices to try and
reduce inventory as the feeling is that the market will correct downwards to refect the normal delta with
the Chinese market. The fact that China prices spiked up this week didnt appear to affect the sentiment.
Port prices ranged from Rps 18.0-18.25 per kilogram, down around 35 paise on the week. Most feel that
import availability has improved in March with Iran expected to have shipped around 45kt, which again
has helped to create a bearish mood in the market. The GNFC turnaround (208 Kta unit down for 12 days
and the 55 Kta unit for 6 days) at Bharuch commencing on the 11th April is not viewed as signifcant by
players and therefore unlikely to tighten the market. GNFC so far has decided not to reduce their non-
discounted ex-tank price of Rps 19.8 per kilogram in view of their impending shutdown. The only spot
deals heard this week were on a foating basis for April. Consensus of opinion puts the April import price
around $340 per metric ton, down by an average $5 per metric ton on last week.
In acetyls news, the tightness in
European markets continues on
acetic acid, however, BP this
week lifted their force majeure
declaration. It appears that BP
have elected to continue running
and postponed the short corrective
shutdown until a later date. There
is still some way to go before the
supply situation is balanced in the
region. Demand for acetic acid
is generally thought to be good
and most end users are reporting
healthy demand in Europe. MSK
at Kikinda has made no further
announcement on their restart
plans. Material in April looks
like it will be tight in the Black
Sea, as SSME will take a six week turnaround on their 180Kta Severodonetsk unit starting on the 15
th

April, which will coincide with the 30 day turnaround planned by Eurochem at Nevinnomyssk (160Kta)
for the beginning of April. No bulk spot deals were heard concluded this week. In the north, distribution
prices remain unchanged on last week at 750-770 per metric ton FD. Italian market prices are below
700 per metric ton FD. A number of contract price settlements have reportedly been concluded at levels
ranging from 90-110 per metric ton up on Q4. Those consumers with a cost plus element in their
formulas will undoubtedly have concluded at lower levels, as acetic acid cash costs have not risen in line
with market prices.
Ukraine trade data is now available for the full year and we can see that exports increased in 2010 versus
2009, but are still not back at the levels seen in 2008. 2009 total exports stood at 63,000 metric tons, last
year saw 76,000 metric tons of exports which is an increase of 21 percent on the previous year. The largest
destination for Ukraine material has consistently been Turkey as it represents the highest netback.
In the Indian market there is no change in the GNFC non discounted ex-tank price this week, which
remains at Rps 33.6 per kilogram. A small dip in prices was seen earlier in the week as a number of sellers
reduced inventory to make way for new material. The port ex tank price is assessed to have returned to
the Rps 32-33 per kilogram level. The import price has softened slightly at the low end of the range and
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010
Turkey Belgium Russia Poland Italy Hungary Other
U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton
Ukraine Annual Exports
~
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 6
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
is assessed at $580-$600 per metric ton CFR. Singaporean product is reportedly on offer at $620-$650
per metric ton for April, but buyers consider this too high. Buyers believe the market has now peaked and
appear to have lost interest in Chinese product because of the long lead time. GNFC is planning to take
their plant (150 Kta) down for turnaround on April 10 for 15 days. Sentiment is becoming more bearish
for the coming month with consumers believing prices will soften.
Revenues at Metafrax increased by 46 percent in 2010 to 7,990 million rubles ($282.6 million) and net
profts nearly doubled at 900 million rubles ($31.8 million). Methanol production at 1,022,000 metric tons
exceeded nameplate capacity (1 million) and formaldehyde production increased by 14 percent compared
to the previous year. 2010 production fgures are as follows:
The tightness of Russian phenol last year hit the phenol formaldehyde producers both in terms of
availability and price. Phenol producers have benefted by raising operating rates to around 90 percent
and increasing production by 30 percent in 2010. Samaraorgsintez is in the process of expanding their
phenol capacity from 60,000 to 90,000 metric tons, which will go part way to improving availability.
Longer term a new 150,000 metric ton plant is being considered by Saratovorgsintez.
In automotive news, February
saw new car registrations up by
0.9 percent compared to the same
month last year. In total 981,429
units were registered in February
making year to date registrations
2,023,133 cars, which is more or
less in-line with the same period
in 2010. The majority of markets
performed better than in the
same period last year although of
note was three of the fve major
markets showed a double digit
decline. The UK shrank by 10.2
percent, Italy by 20.5 percent and
Spain by 25.8 percent.
Product 2010 2009
Methanol 1,022,000 838,000
Formaldehyde 37% 116,000 102,500
Formaldehyde 55% 133,000 119,400
UREA Formaldehyde Concentrate 175,000 154,300
Pentaerythritol 14,600 12,500
Hexamine 14,600 12,500
New Passenger Car Registrations
E U i
March 16, 2011
PRESS EMBARGO : 8.00am (7.00am GMT), March 16, 2011
European Union
+10,8
+10,0
+15,0
1.500.000
1.700.000
Percentage Units NewPassengerCarRegistrationsintheEU Last12months
+2,8
7,4
9,3 6,9
12,9
9,6
16 6
7,1
3,2
1,4
+0,9
15,0
10,0
5,0
+0,0
+5,0
900.000
1.100.000
1.300.000
1.500.000
18,6
16,6
25,0
20,0
500.000
700.000
Feb
'09/'10
Mar
'09/'10
Apr
'09/'10
May
'09/'10
June
'09/'10
July
'09/'10
Aug
'09/'10
Sept
'09/'10
Oct
'09/'10
Nov
'09/'10
Dec
'09/'10
Jan
'10/'11
Feb
'10/'11
2009volumes 2010volumes %changeyearonyear
Not adjusted for working days
PASSENGER CARS: registrations up 0.9% in February
In February, demand for new cars slightly increased (+0.9%) in the EU*, with a majority of markets expanding.
In total 981 429 new cars were registered in the month which counted on average the same number of working In total, 981,429 new cars were registered in the month, which counted on average the same number of working
days across the region compared to February 2010. Two months into the year, new car registrations slipped by
0.3%, amounting to 2,023,133 units.
In February, the EU* recorded 0.9% more cars than in the same month last year. While most countries posted
growth, ranging from +1.2% in Poland to 112.6%in Lithuania, five recorded a downturn, including major markets
such as the UK (-7.7%), Italy (-20.5%) and Spain (-27.6%). The two remaining major markets posted
h i h i i 13 2% i F d 15 2% i G P l d G h i k growth, with registrations up 13.2% in France and 15.2% in Germany. Portugal and Greece saw their markets
contract by 12.7%and 49.1%respectively.
From January to February, demand for new cars in the EU* remained level (-0.3%) compared to the first two
months of last year. A majority of markets performed better that in the same period a year ago though three of the
five largest faced a double-digit downturn. The UK shrank by 10.2%, Italy by 20.5% and Spain by 25.8%. Poland
(-4.2%), Portugal (-11.0%) and Greece (-58.5%) also saw their markets contract. Elsewhere, growth ranged from
1.9%in Luxembourg to 114.5%in Estonia.
* EU27, data for Cyprus and Malta unavailable
Page 1 of 5
Source: ACEA
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 7
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
Asia/Pacifc
China Market sentiment frmed this
week with more active business being
conducted. Supply appeared tighter
due to several turnarounds from large
methanol producers in inland China
with maintenance schedules in April.
The increasing oil price as a result of
the unrest in the Middle East further
acted to stabilize pricing.
Spot prices are reported at $340-$345
per metric ton, CFR basis, depending
on the location, for April deliveries.
Please refer to the pricing table,
Current Product Pricing, at the end
of the report for regional details.
Operations
In Southeast Asia, KMI (710 Kta) in
Indonesia is running well. The small fa-
cility of Petronas (710 Kta) will have
a turnaround at the beginning of April,
and the bigger line now is running to
plan. The Brunei Methanol Company
(850 Kta) shut down on 20 March for a
40 day maintenance period.
In Northern China, Daqing oil (1@100 Kta, 1@100 Kta) continues to operate one of its two lines, due to
the limited supply of natural gas. Dalian Dahua Group (300Kta) shut down last Saturday, and has not
restarted this week.
In Inner Mongolia, Boyuan Unichem (1@600 Kta, 1@ 400 Kta) will have a turnaround period for 25
30 days from 1 April. Shandong Jiutai (1,000Kta) in Inner Mongolia is operating at 70 percent. Market
sources report that it will have a maintenance turnaround in mid-April.
Capacity * Estimated Percent
Region Kta Production Utilization
North 7,950 4,288 54%
Northeast 1,310 705 54%
Northwest 6,740 3,389 50%
Central 3,700 1,355 37%
East 6,260 3,364 54%
Southwest 2,230 769 34%
South 1,400 1,240 89%
China Total 29,590 15,109 51%
* Regions include major producers. Units with capacity 100 Kta
China Major Methanol Production Status
Capacity * Estimated Percent Percent of Capacity with
Feedstock Kta Production Utilization Captive Feedstock
Coal 16,840 8,213 49% 45%
Natural Gas 8,190 4,035 49% 40%
Coking Gas 4,440 2,775 63% 95%
Heavy Liquid 120 86 72% 100%
China Total 29,590 15,109 51%
China Major Methanol Production Status
* Major producers. Units with capacity 100 Kta
Current Week W/E 03/18 W/E 03/11 W/E 03/04
Methanol - /MT
South China 2,805 2,705 2,805 2,775
East China 2,765 2,695 2,730 2,800
Imports ($/MT) 341 332.5 338 340
Derivatives - /MT
Formaldehyde 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550
DME 4,220 4,400 4,450 4,450
Acetyls- /MT
Acetic Acid 3,500 3,400 3,320 3,250
Acetic Acid ($/MT) 530 530 515 500
VAM ($/MT) 1,150 1,150 1,050 1,000
China Market Prices - Average
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 8
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
In Eastern China, Shanghai Coking (1@400 Kta, 1@450 Kta) is operating at high 80 percent rates.
Yankuang Group (1130Kta) continues to run at reduced rates, with daily output at 1000-1200 tons. Ji-
angsu Hensheng Fertilizer (400 Kta) is shutdown this week because of technical problems.
In Southwest China, Lutianhua (400 Kta) and Kingboard (500 Kta) remain shut down due to feedstock
restrictions. Kingboard is expected to restart in April. In Southern China, both of CNOOCs lines on
Hainan Island (1@800 Kta, 1@600 Kta) are running at full capacity rates.
China
There have been several factors that have emerged from last weekend, which reversed the short term mar-
ket direction. The market was surrounded with pessimism last Friday with spot deals done in the range of
$330-$335 per metric ton. Based on the CNY2,700 ex-tank East coast of China price level, the equivalent
USD price is $320 per metric ton, CFR basis. Given the premium, the buying sentiment concentrated
around $330 per metric ton or even lower. However, sellers at last weeks price levels, especially sellers
with inventories on the East coast, decided to hold onto inventories. Early this week news of plant out-
ages from three large methanol facilities in inland China impacted the inland market, especially in the
Shandong and Hebei provinces, causing domestic prices to frm. The three large inland plants are as noted:
Boyuan Unichem (1@600 Kta, 1@ 400 Kta) will have a turnaround period for 25-30 days beginning 1
April, Shandong Jiutai (1,000Kta) in Inner Mongolia will have a turnaround commencing mid-April for
2 weeks, fnally, Yankuang Yulin (600Kt) will have a maintenance turnaround at the beginning of April
for 2 weeks.
The major DME and formaldehyde facilities are located in Hebei province as well as Shandong province.
The total capacity of DME in Hebei province is 2,250 Kta, representing 30 percent of the China domestic
market.
In the derivative markets, the demand in the formaldehyde sector has recovered slightly this week. Form-
aldehyde sector operating rates have increased to 50-60 percent. In some districts, the operating rates are
even higher. If the formaldehyde downstream has no signifcant resistance to the increasing price of the
feedstock, they will still operate and sustain the methanol price. This Monday, the methanol price in Hebei
province is near CNY 2,650-2,700, with the formaldehyde price at CNY 1,280-1,300 levels. The domestic
methanol price is still on an upward trend this week.
The Celanese Nanjing acetic acid plant (1,200 Kta) restarted earlier this week. The acetic acid market
remains tight in China. The spot market price for acetic acid is likely to soften in the near future with the
improving supply situation in China and West Europe. The price of acetic acid remained near CNY3,400-
3,600 this week. In the near horizon, the new acetic acid plant of Jiangsu Sopo (600 Kta) is expected to
start up at the end of 2Q 2011, which will likely soften acetic acid prices in China. Exports from China are
expected to continue in the horizon with the soft prices in China.
The major concern of methanol participants in the China market is the imbalance of prices within China
as well as the market direction for pricing. Market participants are wondering how long this frming trend
will last and what level the price will move to. At this time, the coastal markets lag behind the prices in
inland China due to full coastal inventory levels and the expected import materials arrivals in the follow-
ing weeks/months. In contrast, the limited supply in inland China is likely to push prices upward through
April. Thus, the trade fow patterns between the different regions within China are a key for the price
movement.
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 9
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
The large Chinese market has
of course several regions. The
inland methanol market has
played an important role as a
large producing geography. The
inland region consists of large
capacity facilities that are infu-
enced by logistics costs to move
the product to the consuming
regions. The output of the major
production facilities in inland
China are currently not incentiv-
ized to move material to the East
coast due to the frming prices in
inland China and the lower pric-
es on the East coast. The spot
prices in Shandong province, for
example, have frmed to above
CNY2,800 per metric ton, ap-
proximately the same as the prices in coastal areas, thus the trade fow from Shandong to the coastal mar-
kets is not economical without pushing price increases on the East coast of China. Based on the current
market situation, the bullish forces on price are expected to remain in effect for the next 2-3 weeks. By
late April, the traditional rainy season will likely arrive, infuencing the formaldehyde demand. The DME
industry is also in its soft demand season with the warming in most regions in East and South China.
For the spot market, the price of ex-tank East China methanol has increased from CNY2,700 to CNY2,830
due to the maintenance plans in April. In import arenas, it was reported that there were several transactions
last Friday, at $330 per metric ton CFR basis and $335 per metric ton CFR at a fxed price. On Tuesday,
the price increased to $340 per metric ton CFR basis. CMAI will post the weekly spot prices for China at
$340-$342 per metric ton, CIF basis, up $9 from previous week.
Korea/Taiwan
In the Korean market, there was no signifcant change in demand from last week. Several deals were done
at $342 per metric ton level, loading 1H April. The increasing price in China is beginning to impact offers
in Korea. CMAI will post the Korean weekly spot prices at $340-$345 per metric ton, CIF basis, up $5
from previous week.
The derivative markets in Taiwan remain fat. But due to the upward price movement in China, offers in
Taiwan also increased. CMAI will post the weekly prices at $340-$345 per metric ton, CIF basis, up $10
from previous week.
Southeast Asia
The maintenance of the major facilities in Southeast Asia had little impact on the local domestic market.
Also, due to the limited capacity size of the terminals/jetties in most countries of Southeast Asia, the
Middle East origin cargo, mostly in large vessels, have to transship via Singapore or other major terminals.
The price level in Southeast Asia increased slightly to $345 per metric ton due to the relative tight supply.
CMAI will post the prices this week at $340-$345 per metric ton, CIF basis, up $5 from last week.
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
Inventory - East China Inventory - South China Inventory - North China
China Methanol Market
Coastal Inventory Levels vs Market Pricing
Price - CNY per Metric Ton Inventory - Thousand Metric Tons
Domestic China Methanol Pricing
~
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 10
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
Economy/Energy/Natural Gas
For the week ending March 18,
the EIA reported a decrease in
natural gas underground invento-
ries of 6 Bcf. Last years stor-
age activity for this same week
saw a build of 11 Bcf, while the
historic fve-year average for this
same week was a draw of 6 Bcf.
Current inventory now stands
at 1,612 Bcf, 14 Bcf below last
years level and 33 Bcf above the
fve-year average. See graphic
Winter Natural Gas Storage
Trends.
Thursday, April natural gas fu-
tures closed at $4.24 per MMBtu,
down $0.09 from the previous days close. A three-month strip is available at $4.32 per MMBtu, while
a twelve-month strip is at $4.65 per MMBtu. The Henry Hub closed at $4.28 Wednesday evening, while
the Houston Ship Channel closed at $4.22 per MMBtu.
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2009 - 2010 Weekly Build/Pull 2010 - 2011 Weekly Build/Pull
5-Yr. Avg. Weekly Build/Pull 2009 - 2010 Inventory Level
2010 - 2011 Inventory Level 5 Yr. Avg. Inventory Level
Weekly Underground Storage Level (Bcf) Weekly Inventory Build or Pull (Bcf)
Winter Natural Gas Storage Trends
2011 Season vs. 2010 Season / Five-Year Average
5-Year Historical Average
~
2011 World
Acetyls Analysis
The 2011 World Acetyls Analysis will function as your most ver-
satile source of manufacturing, marketing, economic and forecast
information with data presented over 11 years (2005-2015) and
access to CMAIs online capacity and supply/demand databases.
www.cmaiglobal.com
CMAI - Headquarters
1401 Enclave Parkway, Suite 500
Houston, TX 77077 USA
Tel: 1-281-531-4660
Fax: 1-281-531-9966
Regional Offces
Dubai - Dsseldorf - London
New York - Shanghai - Singapore
Bangkok
Chemicals - Plastics - Fibers
~
To order your copy of CMAIs 2011 World Acetyls Analysis,
contact CMAI at [email protected].
ORDER YOUR COPY NOW!
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 11
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
U.S. Contract Net Transaction
U.S. Spot
Northeast Asia Spot
U.S. Methanol Prices
Monthly Basis
Dollars Per Metric Ton
Legend, $/Ton Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
U.S. Contract Net Transaction 350.79 358.44 432.25 440.56 435.58 420.28 420.28 409.66 398.03 405.35 402.10 404.14 397.45
U.S. Spot 319.80 353.78 385.70 366.08 341.81 351.50 367.31 352.31 342.31 348.60 345.80 347.56 341.80
Northeast Asia Spot 276.00 306.00 386.00 372.67 348.93 351.07 334.00 317.33 305.67 311.96 309.16 310.92 305.17
Legend, $/Ton Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
West Europe Contract T-2 332.52 384.75 379.77 365.92 420.53 429.98 437.22 423.34 423.34 423.34 409.46 409.46 407.40
West Europe Spot T-2 321.04 368.09 382.51 364.20 342.83 361.86 377.54 367.82 353.94 347.00 347.00 347.00 345.25
Northeast Asia Spot 276.00 306.00 386.00 372.67 348.93 351.07 334.00 317.33 305.67 311.96 309.16 310.92 305.17
Currency Exchange, Euro/$ 0.77 0.72 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72
0
69
139
208
278
347
417
486
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
W. Europe Contract T-2
W. Europe Spot T-2
Northeast Asia Spot
Europe Methanol Prices
Monthly Basis
Euros Per Metric Ton Dollars Per Metric Ton, Current Exchange Rate
March 25, 2011 / Issue No. 1457
~
Page 12
Weekly Methanol Market Report
~
Direction
METHANOL
United States
Monthly Price, USGC Distribution, FOB, March 126.0 - 128.0 $419 - $426
T/T-T/C FOB N/E Coast Terminals, March 130.0 - 132.0 $432 - $439
T/T-T/C Non-discounted, March
Price FOB U.S. Gulf 126.0 - 128.0 $419 - $426
Posted Barge Non-discounted, March
Price FOB U.S. Gulf ** 126.0 - 128.0 $419 - $426
Spot Barge, FOB U.S. Gulf, March 109.3 - 109.3 $363 - $363 * Down
Contract Net Transaction Price,
FOB U.S. Gulf in Barges (March) 126.4 $420 * Stable
Non-Discounted Reference Price (MNDRP), Methanex, April 128.0 $426
Monthly Posted Price (MPP), Southern Chemical, March 126.0 $419
Canada
Posted T/T-T/C Non-discounted,
Western Canadian Distributor Price, Methanex, April 150.6 CDN $490
West Europe
Contract Basis FOB Rotterdam, T-2 (Q1'11) 133.8 315 * Up
110.0 - 111.7 259 - 263 * Down
104.9 - 106.6 $349 - $354 * Down

Europe Posted Contract Price (EPCP), Methanex, Q2'11 129.6 305
Asia/Pacific (Regional spot pricing being negotiated for forward month delivery is shown. These prices are notional.)
Korea, CIF 102.3 - 103.8 $340 - $345 * Up
Taiwan, CIF 102.3 - 103.8 $340 - $345 * Up
China, CIF Main Ports 102.3 - 102.9 $340 - $342 * Up
Southeast Asia, CIF Main Ports 102.3 - 103.8 $340 - $345 * Up
Domestic East China 124.0 - 130.0 2,700 - 2,830 * Up
Asia Posted Contract Price (APCP), Methanex, March 126.3 $420
Posted West Coast India, CFR 101.7 - 102.9 $338 - $342 * Down
REFERENCE PRICING (Month of February or as noted)
United States FOB U.S. Gulf
Spot Barge, Average of Weekly Postings 103.4 - 108.1 $344 - $359
Spot Barge, Monthly Weighted Average 105.40 $350
Contract Net Transaction Price, March 126.4 $420
West Europe
Contract FOB Rotterdam, T-2 129.9 315
108.1 - 109.3 262 - 268
103.1 - 105.5 $343 - $351
Asia/Pacific
Korea, CIF Main Ports, Spot 104.5 - 107.9 $348 - $359
Taiwan, CIF Main Ports, Spot 105.3 - 106.8 $350 - $355
Northeast China, CIF Main Ports, Spot 103.4 - 105.4 $344 - $351
Southeast Asia, CIF Main Ports, Spot 105.3 - 109.8 $350 - $365
MTBE
United States Spot FOB U.S. Gulf 331.7 - 331.8 $1,178 - $1,178 * Up
West Europe Spot FOB Amsterdam/Rotterdam N/A - N/A N/A - N/A * N/A

Asia/Pacific Spot FOB Singapore 309.8 - 310.3 $1,100 - $1,102 * Up
Current One Dollar Equivalents * Denotes price change. Some prices change because of fluctuating currency ratios.
Canada 0.98 ** List prices and non-discounted reference price postings.
Euro 0.71 Current and forecast prices presented herein are strictly the opinion of CMAI and are
Pound Sterling 0.62 based on information within the public sector and on assessments by the CMAI staff.
Japan Yen 80.9 CMAI MAKES NO GUARANTEE OR WARRANTY, AND ASSUMES NO
China Yuan 6.55 LIABILITY AS TO THEIR USE.
Spot FOB Rotterdam, T-2, March
Cents Per Gallon
Spot FOB Rotterdam, T-2
Spot CFR Rotterdam, T-1
Per Metric Ton
CURRENT PRODUCT PRICING
Spot C & F Rotterdam, T-1 (Notional; Duty = 2.0%), March