DART India Chart Book - May 19
DART India Chart Book - May 19
DART India Chart Book - May 19
DART Research
Tel: +91 22 40969700
E-mail: [email protected]
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-17
Apr-18
Dec-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Nov-17
Nov-18
Sep-17
May-17
May-18
Sep-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jan-19
Jan-18
(30)
Traffic across major ports (YoY %) Thermal & Coking coal traffic
14 125
12 100
9 75
7 50
4 25
2 0
Nov-17
Nov-18
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-17
May-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jan-18
Jan-19
(1) (25)
Nov-17
Nov-18
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-17
May-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jan-18
Jan-19
(4) (50)
(6) Thermal Coal Coking Coal
WPI and Fuel & Power WPI - Food and Non-Food Article
30 9
25 7
20
5
15
3
10
5 1
0 (1)
Feb-19
Feb-18
Oct-18
Oct-17
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-17
Dec-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-18
(3)
(5)
WPI Fuel & Power (7) Food Articles Non Food Articles
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE
0% 46
Oct-17
Oct-18
Dec-17
Dec-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Aug-17
Feb-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
44
Feb-18
Feb-19
Aug-17
Aug-18
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-17
Jun-17
Apr-18
Jun-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
-2%
If CPI is flat If CPI falls by 0.5 per month
If CPI increases by 0.5 per month If CPI increases by 1 per month
FY19*
FY08
FY15
FY07
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY18
2017-18 (2nd Adv Est.) 2018-19 (2nd Adv Est.)
YoY (%)
Source: DART, Dept. of Agriculture Source: DART, DIPP, Ministry of Commerce, *Up to Dec’18
10
FY17
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY18
8.2
8 7.1 6.6
6.5
0 6
(1) 4
2
(2)
(2.1) 0
(2.2)
Q4FY19E
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
(3) (2.4)
(4)
FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
50%
FY13
FY18
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
40%
0
(1) 30%
(2) 20%
(3) 10%
(4) (3.4) (3.4)(3.2) 0%
Aug-17
Aug-18
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
(5)
-10%
(6)
(7) Export Import
Source: DART, Ministry of Finance Source: DART, Ministry of Commerce
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-18
Dec-16
Dec-17
FY19E#
FY14
FY20E#
FY21E#
FY13
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Source: DART, RBI, Till 19 May’2019 Source: DART, RBI, # Bloomberg
150 60,000
50,000
100 40,000
30,000
50 20,000 2,350
10,000
0 0
FY19E*
FY18E
FY19
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY20
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
20 10
15
10
10 5
0
Nov-17
Nov-18
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-17
May-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jan-18
Jan-19
5 0
(10)
Nov-17
Nov-18
Sep-18
Sep-17
May-17
May-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jan-18
Jan-19
(20) 0 (5)
Growth of Cement Growth of Steel - RHS Electricity Petroleum Refinery Products
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE
Consumer Durable & Non-Durable Growth (%) CV Production & Sales (YoY %)
25 100
20 80
15 60
10 40
20
5
0
0
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-18
Aug-17
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
(20)
Nov-17
Nov-18
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-17
May-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jan-18
Jan-19
(5)
(40)
Consumer Non Durables Consumer goods Total Production Total Sales
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE
Production, Sales incl. exports of tractors (YoY%) NHAI Targeted, Awarded & Constructed (KMS)
60 16,000
14,000
15,000
45 12,000
30 10,000
9,829
8,000
15 6,000
7,400
4,000
0 2,000
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
0
(15)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Production Sales incl. exports Targeted Awarded Construction
15 250,000 10
200,000
10 150,000 0
5 100,000 (10)
50,000
0 0 (20)
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
Nov-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
May-18
Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Apr-19
Mar-18
Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19
Total container traffic Total Freight Traffic PV YoY (%)
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, SIAM, PV includes Passenger Cars, Utility Vehicles &
Vans
Nov-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
May-18
Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
Apr-19
Mar-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jan-19
Nov-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
May-18
Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-18
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jan-19
Two-wheeler Trend
3,000,000 30
2,500,000 20
2,000,000
10
1,500,000
0
1,000,000
500,000 (10)
0 (20)
Nov-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
May-18
Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
Apr-19
Mar-18
Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19
Nov-18
Feb-18
May-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Dec-17
Dec-18
Jan-18
Jan-19
65
63
Consumer Durables Credit Card Outstanding
Nov-18
Nov-17
Sep-17
Feb-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
May-17
May-18
May-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jun-17
Jul-17
Jul-18
Apr-18
Apr-19
Mar-18
Mar-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
Jan-18
Jan-19
Vehicle Loans Personal Loans (RHS)
Housing (RHS)
30,000 8,000
7,500
20,000
7,000
10,000
6,500
0
6,000
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Apr-18
Apr-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
(10,000)
5,500
(20,000)
Nov-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
May-18
Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19
(30,000)
Total MF Inflow* FII Inflow
Source: DART, AMFI, * Equity + ELSS Source: DART, AMFI
Feb-18
Feb-19
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-19
Apr-17
Apr-18
Dec-18
Dec-16
Dec-17
Nov-18
Feb-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
May-19
May-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Apr-19
Jul-18
Mar-18
Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19
DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director [email protected] +9122 4096 9747
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