Strategic Comments

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Malaysia’s political crisis

To cite this article: (2020) Malaysia’s political crisis, Strategic Comments, 26:2, vii-ix, DOI:
10.1080/13567888.2020.1756352

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Published online: 17 Apr 2020.

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 Strategic Comments
Malaysia’s political crisis
On 1 March 2020, Muhyiddin Yassin economic impact of the related economic economic inequality, and its indifference to
was sworn in as Malaysia’s eighth prime downturn. This may lead to improved the concerns of non-Malay ethnic groups.
minister, forming the country’s third relations with traditional partners such as Najib was tainted by his participation
government in less than two years. He China, Saudi Arabia and Singapore, each of in a scandal involving a government
came to power after elites in several which opposed Mahathir’s election in 2018. investment fund, 1Malaysia Development
political parties had reconfigured their Berhad (1MDB). He was accused of using
coalition alliances to remove the previous ‘New Malaysia’ his influence as prime minister to help
prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, from Mahathir Mohamad served as Malaysia’s launder billions of US dollars through a
office and prevent his presumed successor, fourth prime minister from 1981 to 2003 complex network of corrupt companies,
Anwar Ibrahim, from assuming power. and – at the age of 92 – was re-elected in using some of the proceeds on campaign
Muhyiddin has taken office as Malaysia 2018 as part of a new, multi-ethnic coalition expenses for himself and his allies.
faces some of its most difficult challenges called Pakatan Harapan, or Alliance of Mahathir, heeding public sentiment,
since becoming independent from Hope in English. The coalition pledged to positioned himself as a good-government
the United Kingdom in 1957. Political, fight corruption and enact policies labelled reformer and joined forces with Anwar
racial and religious fault lines have had ‘populist’ by its opponents, including Ibrahim, an imprisoned former MP with
a particularly destabilising effect on the cutting taxes and increasing spending on whom he had had a chequered relationship.
country’s governing coalitions since 2018, health and education, while including This alliance, which was essential to attract
and they are now complicating efforts to younger and more ethnically diverse the support of various opposition parties in
improve a worsening economy and contain leaders in the political process. Mahathir assembling the Harapan coalition, involved
the spread of the disease caused by the argued that these changes would create a succession arrangement whereby
SARS-CoV-2 virus, COVID-19. Given what he called a ‘New Malaysia’. Mahathir would at some point cede power
the fractiousness of Malaysia’s political Mahathir ran against his former party to the 70-year-old Anwar.
class and public distrust over the failure coalition, Barisan Nasional, or National The alliance was unstable from the start.
of several prime ministers to implement Front, which was dominated by a Anwar had served as deputy prime minister
good-governance reforms, Muhyiddin chauvinist ethnic-Malay party, the United under Mahathir from 1993 to 1998 until
will probably struggle to maintain control Malays National Organisation (UMNO). Mahathir, fearing a leadership challenge,
over the government and may respond by He replaced Najib Razak, who had been had him arrested on politically motivated
using authoritarian measures to hold on to prime minister from 2009 to 2018. Barisan charges of corruption and sodomy. Once
power. At the same time, he will have no (or its predecessor, the Alliance coalition) Mahathir was elected in 2018, he arranged
choice but to seek assistance from countries had controlled Malaysia’s government for Anwar to be pardoned and released
abroad in tackling Malaysia’s internal since independence in 1957, but lost ground from prison – where he was serving a
challenges, such as limiting the spread in elections over the last decade due to five-year sentence on completely separate
of COVID-19 and managing the socio- corruption scandals, discontent over rising charges of sodomy – but mutual distrust

PHILIPPINES
THAILAND

K elantan
P e r l is
K e d ah
Ter engganu BRUNEI Sabah
P e nang M A L AY S I A
P er ak

P ahang
S elangor Negeri
Sembilan
Kuala Lumpur Sarawak

M alacca Johor

INDONESIA INDONESIA

© IISS

ISSN: 1356-7888 Volume 26 Comment 7 April 2020

between the two men’s supporters fed
suspicions about when, or indeed whether, Projected composition of the Dewan Rakyat (People’s Assembly),
the succession would occur. the lower house of Malaysia’s parliament, April 2020
This was one reason the 2018–20 gov-
ernment struggled to deliver many of the
promises made during the campaign. Once
in power, Mahathir’s coalition had difficul-
ty reaching consensus over which reforms
112 seats
to implement, and how. Its attempts to
fund existing public programmes and GOVERNING COALITION: OPPOSITION:
increase spending were constrained by a Perikatan Nasional Pakatan Harapan
revenue shortfall, worsened by Harapan’s National Alliance Alliance of Hope
electoral commitment to simultaneously
cut taxes. Mahathir’s appointees, many 39 UMNOUnited Malays National Organisation 42 DAP Democratic Action Party

of whom were new to the federal govern- 31 Bersatu

Malaysian United Indigenous Party 39 PKR People's Justice Party
ment, faced considerable resistance from (PM Muhyiddin's faction)
experienced bureaucrats in the civil ser-
18 PAS 11 Amanah
National Trust Party
vice, who had spent their careers serving Malaysian Islamic Party

under Barisan and wanted the coalition to 4 Others

MCA (Malaysian Chinese Association)
9 Warisan
Sabah Heritage Party
return to power. MIC (Malaysian Indian Congress)
5 Bersatu
Malaysian United Indigenous Party

Political crisis 18 GPS (Former PM Mahathir's faction)

3 UPKO
Sarawak Parties Coalition
In mid-February 2020, after months of
internal negotiations, a new party coalition
3 GBS United Alliance (Sabah)
United Progressive People of Kinabalu Organisation
Others
Independent MPs
called Perikatan Nasional, or National
Source: IISS © IISS
Alliance, formed to oppose Mahathir’s
government. The coalition is comprised
of Najib’s party, UMNO, an Islamist until mid-May 2020 amid fears that he worth US$57.7bn; and a third worth
party (PAS), disgruntled members of may not be able to command the majority US$2.3bn, directed towards small and
Mahathir’s and Anwar’s parties, and a once voting begins. COVID-19 may delay medium-size businesses. These measures
few members of regional parties from the the sitting further. Indeed, several parties largely reallocate existing funds rather
states of Sarawak and Sabah, which are under the Perikatan umbrella have a poor than dedicate new funds to the crisis,
located on the island of Borneo (sometimes record of cooperation, particularly PAS, with only US$8.3bn in new spending. The
referred to as East Malaysia). The new which has left every coalition it has joined, three packages direct a substantial sum
prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, was and UMNO, which cannot dominate the towards stimulus and relief – 17.7% of
one of the most prominent defectors from new government, as it has traditionally. GDP – but they do not create a safety net
Harapan to Perikatan. Muhyiddin’s government has for the 2.5m Malaysians estimated to be
Muhyiddin was a long-time UMNO struggled to respond to the emerging living in poverty or for the millions who
politician who served as deputy prime health and economic crises resulting from have been put out of work. Government
minister under Najib. After publicly the spread of COVID-19. On 18 March, data released in early April shows that,
opposing Najib’s actions in the 1MDB it imposed a strict ‘movement-control only one month into the lockdown, 46.5%
scandal, he was dismissed from the order’ to reduce the viral infection rate, of self-employed workers and 35% of
government in 2015 and ended his deploying 7,500 members of the armed those working in the food-and-beverage
long membership of the party, joining forces to enforce social-distancing and industry have lost their jobs.
Mahathir’s Malaysian United Indigenous isolation measures. Despite implementing
Party (Bersatu) as party president. At the a swift, nationwide lockdown as Rising factionalism
time of his defection from Harapan to recommended by public-health officials, In hindsight, Mahathir’s ‘New Malaysia’
Perikatan in February 2020, he was serving the government’s initial daily briefings to may be remembered less for its good-
as Mahathir’s minister of home affairs. the public sowed confusion. The lockdown governance measures and populism than
By withdrawing from the Harapan was implemented more effectively in late for changing coalition politics in ways that
coalition, Muhyiddin split the Bersatu March and early April, but government broaden representation while also destabi-
party and eliminated Mahathir’s working policy remains reactive rather than lising subsequent governments. From 1957
majority in the Dewan Rakyat, the proactive. By 14 April, Malaysia had to 2018, Malaysian politics functioned at
lower house of Malaysia’s parliament, recorded about 5,000 cases of COVID- the federal level as a UMNO-dominated
overturning the government. On 29 19, slightly fewer than the Philippines coalition system, but since 2018 it has
February, Muhyiddin secured the support and Indonesia, with the second-highest become a multi-party coalition system
of Malaysia’s king to form a new Perikatan death rate (2.5 per million inhabitants) in which demands power-sharing and com-
government, and he took the oath of Southeast Asia. By comparison, Malaysia’s promise in ways that were previously
office as prime minister the next day. His death rate is far lower than those in, for unnecessary. The largest nine political par-
elevation has been portrayed by opponents example, Germany (41.7/m), the United ties or mini-coalitions – motivated by a
as a ‘backdoor power grab’. Politics States (79.1/m), the UK (178.5/m) or range of ethnic, religious, regional and
aside, Muhyiddin clearly lacks a popular Spain (390.5/m). Malaysia has the highest left–right prerogatives – each control from
mandate, having overturned a government recovery rate in the region, at 38%, and is 5–20% of the seats in parliament. This
without facing the voters and having making slow progress to flatten the curve. means that governing majorities are likely
restored UMNO to power, contrary to the The government has introduced three to be assembled from a collection of par-
result of the 2018 elections. He is thought economic-stimulus packages to support ties with diverse views. If the majority is
to hold a very slim and as yet untested citizens and businesses affected by the narrow, which was the case in May 2018
majority – probably 113 seats out of 222. pandemic – one worth US$4.6 billion, and appears to be the case now, minor
The sitting of parliament has been delayed which it inherited from Mahathir; another parties will be tempted to switch sides and

ISSN: 1356-7888 Volume 26 Comment 7 April 2020

empower the opposition when their par- cabinet – giving them the law, environment security programmes due to the lost
ticular concerns are not addressed. Ethnic and domestic-commodities portfolios – and revenue and because of high debts incurred
nationalism, religion and state nationalism appointing a mufti as minister for religion. in the aftermath of Najib’s 1MDB scandal.
are currently the most significant factors However, if he gives them too much In 2020, Perikatan will face extraordi-
driving factional division. influence he risks fracturing his coalition by nary pressure to successfully revive the
Some of Malaysia’s largest political alienating parties from Sarawak, where the economy after the strict COVID-19 lock-
parties are aligned – sometimes implicitly, population is predominantly Christian and down ends, while protecting vulnerable
sometimes explicitly – with different Buddhist. Muhyiddin will be under intense communities from economic disaster. It
ethnic groups. UMNO, PAS and Bersatu pressure to find concessions to make to the will have fewer measures than ever at its
are associated with ethnic Malays, who Sarawak parties – which are essential to disposal, given that existing revenue short-
comprise about 60% of the population; the his governing majority – ahead of Sarawak ages have been worsened by the drop in
Democratic Action Party is associated with state elections which will be held before oil prices (proceeds from oil sales supply
ethnic Chinese and smaller minority groups, June 2021. This will be particularly true if 15–20% of the government’s annual rev-
who comprise about 30% of the population. he is unable to make progress on the most enue). Muhyiddin’s actions will be further
Ethnicity has long been politicised, and important issue to these parties: amending constrained by his probable slim major-
ethnic division has increased in recent years the Malaysian constitution to increase ity in parliament; by opposition figures,
with the rise of populist identity politics. autonomy provisions for East Malaysia. including Mahathir; and by public ques-
Malay-based parties stoke fears of ethnic tions over his legitimacy as prime minister.
displacement by the Chinese, and Chinese- Outlook Muhyiddin may have greater freedom
led parties promote resentment over their Malaysia’s real per-capita GDP growth has of action in managing Malaysia’s foreign
exclusion from government. Chinese-led been stable for a generation, averaging 2.6% relations. In his 40 years in politics he
parties gained power in the 2018 elections, between 2000 and 2009, and 3.7% between seems never to have developed a strong
but UMNO’s return to the governing 2010 and 2019, with a pre-COVID-19 IMF relationship with Western countries,
coalition and Muhyiddin’s rise in 2020 has forecast of 3.5% from 2020 to 2024. However, and will probably be more inclined to
come under the banner of ‘Malay unity’, growth has been distributed unevenly work with regional neighbours, particu-
signalling a return to unapologetic Malay across society, with the remote states of larly Singapore, and with partners in the
dominance of government. Sarawak and Sabah lagging far behind. Middle East. He has appointed a former
Ethnic politics is further complicated by The likely COVID-19-induced recession or UMNO defence minister, Hishammuddin
the matter of religion. Muslims comprise depression that will emerge in the second Hussein, as minister of foreign affairs,
61.3% of the population, and non-Muslims quarter of 2020 with be especially difficult apparently aiming to adopt a more inter-
38.7%. The Muslim community is itself for Malaysia’s young people and its lower nationalist posture, as the country had
divided between moderates and a con- and lower-middle classes to weather, given done under Najib, and to repair relations
servative faction; the latter is influential the battering of Malaysia’s social safety with China and Saudi Arabia, which were
in UMNO and in PAS, the Islamist party, net and fiscal position during the last two strained under the Harapan government.
which advocates implementing sharia and governments. Bank Negara, Malaysia’s China is eager for Malaysia to return to
hudud criminal laws enforced by a bureau- central bank, projected in April that GDP in its orbit of influence as a partner in dip-
cracy staffed by religious leaders trained in 2020 would probably contract (with a range lomatic initiatives and as a site for invest-
Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Surveys show that from -2.0% to 0.5%). ments in oil and gas infrastructure. The
25% of Malaysia’s population supports the Najib’s government had widened the new government will depend on foreign
full integration of religion and government, social safety net by introducing modest, assistance more than ever: the immediate
while an opposing 25% supports secular- needs-based cash transfers known as need is for medicine, medical supplies, and
ism (with 50% in the middle). Mahathir’s 1Malaysia People’s Aid (BR1M) vouchers in access to loans to fund additional stimu-
government faced strong resistance from 2012. It attempted to increase government lus measures and blunt the impact of the
conservative Muslims. He failed to win the revenue through a 6% consumption tax pandemic on society. The only precedent
endorsement of clerics during the campaign on goods and services, but this measure for Muhyiddin’s use of the armed forces to
in 2018, and once in office was accused by proved to be wildly unpopular among enforce a strict lockdown – or for Malaysia
partisans of ‘selling out Islam to Christians’ poorer people and was a key factor in facing a challenge on this scale – is when
and ‘inadequately protecting Islam’. Najib’s loss to Mahathir in 2018. The the military was called into the streets to
Muhyiddin has opted to ally with these Harapan government removed the tax, quell the 1969 racial riots, which convulsed
groups, appointing members of PAS to his as promised, but was forced to cut social- the nation.

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