Mathematics

Quarter 4 – Module 9
Illustrating Experimental
Probability and Theoretical
Probability

CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
Mathematics – Grade 8
Alternative Delivery Mode
Quarter 4 – Module 9 Illustrating Experimental Probability and Theoretical Probability
First Edition, 2020

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 8

Mathematics
Quarter 4 – Module 9
Illustrating Experimental
Probability and Theoretical
Probability
Introductory Message
This Self-Learning Module (SLM) is prepared so that you, our dear learners,
can continue your studies and learn while at home. Activities, questions,
directions, exercises, and discussions are carefully stated for you to understand
each lesson.

Each SLM is composed of different parts. Each part shall guide you step-by-
step as you discover and understand the lesson prepared for you.

Pre-tests are provided to measure your prior knowledge on lessons in each

SLM. This will tell you if you need to proceed on completing this module or if you
need to ask your facilitator or your teacher’s assistance for better understanding of
the lesson. At the end of each module, you need to answer the post-test to self-
check your learning. Answer keys are provided for each activity and test. We trust
that you will be honest in using these.

In addition to the material in the main text, Notes to the Teacher are also
provided to our facilitators and parents for strategies and reminders on how they
can best help you on your home-based learning.

Please use this module with care. Do not put unnecessary marks on any
part of this SLM. Use a separate sheet of paper in answering the exercises and
tests. And read the instructions carefully before performing each task.

If you have any questions in using this SLM or any difficulty in answering
the tasks in this module, do not hesitate to consult your teacher or facilitator.

Thank you.
 What I Need to Know

This module was designed and written with you in mind. It is here to help
you master the skills of illustrating experimental probability and theoretical
probability. You are provided with varied activities to process the knowledge and
skills learned and to deepen and transfer your understanding of the lesson. The
scope of this module enables you to use it in many different learning situations.
The lessons are arranged to follow the standard sequence of the course. But the
order in which you read them can be changed to correspond with the textbook you
are now using.

This module contains lesson on illustrating an experimental probability and

a theoretical probability (M8GE-IVi-1).

After going through this module, you are expected to:

1. define experimental and theoretical probability;
2. differentiate experimental from theoretical probability; and
3. identify the type of probability manifested in a given situation.

What I Know

Pre-Assessment:
Directions: Answer each of the following items. Write the letter of the correct
answer on a separate sheet of paper.
1. Which of the following is true about theoretical probability?
A. It is the relative approximation of probability of an event.
B. Experiment needs to be done to get the probability of an event.
C. It is the probability of the event that a person is expecting to happen.
D. It is an approach that bases the probability on the possible chances of an
event to happen.

2. Which of the following illustrates experimental probability?

1
A. In rolling a die once, the probability of getting a 6 is 6.
B. In flipping a coin once, the probability of getting a head is ½.
3
C. The probability of drawing a non-spade card from a deck of 52 cards is .
4
D. In tossing a coin 500 times, head turned up 235 times, then the probability
265
of the tail turning up is 500.

1
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 For items 3 - 5, consider the results of the experiment “tossing 3 coins 5
times” as shown below then answer the questions that follow.

Outcomes
Trial
3H or 0T 2H1T 1H2T 0H or 3T
1 HHT
2 TTT
3 HHH
4 TTT
5 HTH
Frequency 1 2 0 2

3. What is the experimental probability of the outcome “no heads”?

1 1 1 2
A. B. C. D.
8 5 4 5

4. Which of the following events did not occur in the experiment?

A. THT and TTH B. HHH and HHT C.THH and TTT D. HHH and
TTT

5. What is the experimental probability of the outcome “2 heads”?

1 1 1 2
A. B. C. D.
8 5 4 5

For items 6 - 8, consider the situation “A coin is flipped four times.”

6. How many possible outcomes are there?

A. 4 B. 8 C. 16 D. 32

7. What is the probability of obtaining 4 heads?

1 1 1 1
A. B. C. D.
32 16 8 4

8. Which two events have equal probabilities?

A. 4H and 1H B. 2H and 0H C. 3H and 1H D.
3H and 2H

For items 9 - 13, consider the situation below to answer the questions that
follow.
Fifty (50) people were surveyed on the type of movie they prefer to watch, and
the following results were obtained.

Movie Genre Frequency

Action 12
Comedy 7
Drama 9
Horror 12
Romance 10
9. The probability that a randomly chosen person from those who were surveyed
7 7
prefers to watch comedy movie is . What is as a probability?
50 50
A. Theoretical B. Experimental C. Subjective D. All of the
above

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CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 10. Which of the following movies in the experiment is least preferred by the
respondents?
A. Comedy B. Drama C. Horror D. Romance

11. Which of the following movies were equally chosen by those who were
surveyed?
A. Action and Drama C. Drama and Horror
B. Action and Horror D. Drama and Romance

12. What is the probability that a person chosen at random likes to watch an
action movie?
1 6 5 1
A. B. C. D.
5 25 12 2

13. What is the probability that a person chosen at random likes to watch a drama
movie?
9 1 6 5
A. 50
B. 5
C. D.
25 9

14. How does experimental probability differ from theoretical probability?

A. There is no difference between experimental probability and theoretical
probability of an event.
B. Experimental probability is observation-based probability while theoretical
probability is expected probability.
C. Experimental probability is based on the expected outcome while theoretical
probability is based on the observations in the experiment.
D. Experimental probability is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to
the total number of possible outcomes while theoretical probability is the
ratio of the number of times the event occurred to the total number of trials.
15. Which of the following is true about the relationship of the experimental
probability and theoretical probability of an event when the number of trials is
increased?
A. If the number of trials increases, the experimental probability is higher than
the theoretical probability.
B. If the number of trials is increases, the experimental probability is equal to
theoretical probability of an event.
C. If the number of trials increases, the experimental probability gives more
accurate and actual results, its value gets closer to the theoretical
probability.
D. If the number of trials increases, the experimental probability does not give
accurate and actual results, its value gets farther from the theoretical
probability.

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CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Lesson
Illustrating Experimental
1 and Theoretical Probability
When you toss a coin once, the probability of a tail to turn up is ½ or 50%.
What if the same coin is tossed 20 times, do you think the tail will turn up 10 times,
or does the probability of the tail turning up remain ½ or 50%? Although there is a
possibility that tail will come out as an outcome half of the number of times it is
tossed, this rarely happens. You will be helped to understand the underlying concept
of this situation by learning theoretical and experimental probabilities.

What’s In

Directions: Match each problem in Column A with its corresponding answer in

Column B. Write the letter of the correct answer on a separate sheet of
paper.

Column A Column B

1. What is the probability of getting a perfect square number when A.

2
3
rolling a die once?
3
2. What is the probability of drawing a heart from a deck of 52 B. 5
playing cards if you draw one card?
1
3. You and your friend played a computer game 50 times. Your C. 3
friend won 20 times. What is the probability that your friend will
win the game? D.
1
2
4. You tossed a coin 300 times and got 100 heads and 200 tails.
2
What is the probability that the tail turned up? E. 5

5. You surveyed 2,000 students about their preferred school type: 1

F.
The results are: 800 preferred private school and 1200 preferred 4

public school. What is the probability that a student, chosen at

random, preferred public school?

Guide Questions:

1. How did you find the probability of each simple event?

2. How would you describe the obtained probability of each simple event?

4
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 What’s New

Situation: Suppose that a coin is tossed 20 times and the actual results are recorded
on the table below. Supply the missing information and answer the
questions that follow.

Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Outcome
Head (H)
H T T H H T H H H H T T H H H H H H T H
or Tail
(T)

Outcomes Frequency
Heads ?
Tails ?
Total ?

Questions:

1. What is the expected probability of getting a head when tossing a coin once? What
is also the probability of getting a tail?

2. Based on the results of the experiment, what is the probability of getting a head?
What about getting a tail?

3. Based on the results of the experiment, which between the tail and head occurred
more frequently? Did you expect this to happen?

4. Suppose that you will continue tossing the coin 50 times or more, what do you
think will happen to the probability of getting the head? What about getting the
tail?

What is it

This section will help you understand the underlying concepts why the ½ or 50%
chance of the occurrence of tails sometimes differs to the actual result when a coin is
tossed 20 times, as presented in the previous section. The following sections are
prepared to discuss theoretical and experimental probabilities.

I. Differentiating Theoretical Probability from Experimental Probability

5
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Situation: Suppose you will toss a coin three times.
The possible outcomes in tossing a coin three times are contained in the
sample space below.
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}

A. Determining the probability of each outcome.

Expected Probability Expected number

Possible Outcome 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 of occurrence of
𝑃 (𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 outcome
3H or 0T 1 1
{𝐻𝐻𝐻} 8
2H 3 3
{𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻} 8
1H 3 3
{𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻} 8
0H 1 1
{𝑇𝑇𝑇} 8
TOTAL 8 8
=1
8

The probabilities presented in the table are theoretical probabilities. By

definition, theoretical probability is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes
to the total number of possible outcomes, provided that all outcomes are equally
probable. Tossing a fair coin has 2 possible outcomes, either a head or a tail. The
1
probability of each outcome is . The table above gives the theoretical probability
2
and the expected number of occurrence of each outcome when a coin three times.
Tossing a coin three times has 8 possible outcomes as shown in the sample space
above. The table above shows that there is one chance out of 8 possible outcomes for
three heads (3H) to occur in tossing a coin thrice, 3 out of 8 for 2 heads (2H) to
occur, 3 out of 8 for 1 head (1H) to occur, and there is one chance for zero head or 3
tails (0H) to occur.

Will the actual tossing of the coin three times yield the same probability for 2
heads to turn up? This question will be answered in the next section.
B. Determining the Probability of an event as outcome of an experiment.

Suppose that the actual tossing of the coin three times yielded the outcomes
as presented in the table below.

Trial 1 2 3 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠

𝑃 (𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
Outcome H T H 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
Outcome Frequency Probability
Head 2 2
𝑃 (ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 ) =
3
Tail 1 1
𝑃 (𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙) =
3

6
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 The table in A shows all possible occurrences of the head (H) and tail (T) when
a coin is tossed 3 times, while the table above shows the actual occurrences of the
head and tail when the experiment is done.
Obviously, the theoretical probability of obtaining 2 heads in tossing a coin
three times is not equal to the experimental probability of obtaining the same event
2H. It is because of the denominator in the probability formula. The denominator in
computing the theoretical probability is the total number of all possible outcomes of
the experiment, while in the experimental probability, the denominator is the total
number of trials in doing the experiment. By definition, experimental probability of
an event is the ratio of number of times the outcome occurs to the total number of
trials.

C. Comparing Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Consider the experiment of tossing a coin 20 times.

Outcome Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability

(Actual Results)
Head 10/20 7/20
Tail 10/20 13/20

10
The theoretical probability for each of the head and tail is based on the
20
1
expectation that the chance of occurring for each of the head and tail in an un-
2
tossed fair coin will remain the same all throughout the experiment. However, along
the actual tossing of the coin for several times, uncontrollable factors like wind flow,
force applied in tossing, and contour of the surface where the coin landed will surely
affect the chance that a particular face of the coin will come out as an outcome. In
effect, the probability of a particular face to turn up may either increase or decrease.
This type of probability that is largely based on observations derived from trials or
experiments conducted is called experimental probability.

7
As shown in the table, the experimental probability of the head is 20
which is
less than the theoretical probability. On the other hand, the experimental probability
13
of the tail is which is greater than the theoretical probability.
20

D. Increasing Number of Trials and Comparing the Theoretical Probability with

the Experimental Probability

Suppose that the number of trials is increased to 50 and the following results
are obtained:
Probability
Frequency
Outcome 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
Head 26 26
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 ) =
50
Tail 24 24
𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 ) =
50

7
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 It can be observed from the table above, the experimental probability of
26 24
landing on heads is 50
or that is 52% and the probability of landing on tail is 50
or
48%. Though not equal with the theoretical probability, it can be observed that these
1
probabilities get closer to the theoretical probability which is 2
or 50%. Thus, greater
number of trials will bridge the gap between theoretical and experimental probability.
In similar manner of saying, the greater the number of trials, the more likely it is for
experimental probability to get closer to the theoretical probability.

II. Identifying Situations that Involve Theoretical or Experimental Probability

Problem Type Reason
1. You and your friend Theoretical Six Possible Outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
are playing snake
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
and ladder. Your 𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
turn to roll the die
𝟏
has come. The 𝑷(𝟐) =
𝟔
probability of getting The result is based on the expected
1
a 2 is . outcome that there is only one 2 in a
6
die.
2. The probability of Theoretical 52 Possible Outcomes: 13 hearts, 13
choosing a heart card diamonds, 13 spades, 13 clubs
from a standard deck
13 1 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
of cards is or . 𝑃(𝐸) =
52 4 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
13 1
𝑃 (ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠) = 𝑜𝑟
52 4
The result is based on the expected
outcome that there are 13 heart
cards in a standard deck of cards.
3. Given a spinner with Theoretical 7 Possible Outcomes: red, orange,
seven congruent yellow, green, blue, indigo, violet
sectors with the
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
following colors: red, 𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
orange, yellow, green, 1
blue, indigo, violet, 𝑃 (𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 ) =
7
the probability that The result is based on the expected
the arrow will land outcome that there is only one blue
on the blue sector is sector in the spinner with seven
1
. colors.
7

4. A bag contains 10 Experimental 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =

𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
red, 8 blue, and 2 4
yellow marbles. You 𝑃 (𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 7
pick a marble 7
times, of which 4 are The result is based on the observation
blue. The probability that in the experiment done in 7
of getting a blue times, the blue marble was picked 4

8
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Problem Type Reason
4
marble is 7. times.
5. Two coins are tossed Experimental 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
3 times. Suppose 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
1
both heads occurred 𝑃 (𝐻𝐻) = 3
once. The probability The result is based on the observation
that both heads that in the experiment done 3 times,
occurred is 3.
1 both heads occurred only once.

What’s More

Activity 1

Directions: Consider the situation in every number below. Supply the missing
information in the table and answer the questions that follow.
A. Determine the theoretical probability of each possible outcome indicated in the
table when a die is rolled once.
Theoretical Probability
Possible 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 Expected ratio with the
Outcome 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = total number of outcomes
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
1
1 ?
6
2 1
2 ? 𝑜𝑟
12 6
2 1
3 ? 𝑜𝑟
12 6
1
4 ?
6
2 1
5 ? 𝑜𝑟
12 6
1 2 1
6 𝑜𝑟
6 12 6

Questions:
a. How did you determine the probability of each possible outcome?
b. How did you determine the probability of each outcome out of the 12 rolls of
the die?
c. What kind of probability is illustrated in column 2 of the table above?
B. Suppose that a die is rolled 12 times. The following are the results.

9
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Outcome
Trial
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1
2 3
3 2
4 4
5 3
6 1
7 4
8 6
9 4
10 5
11 1
12 3
Frequency ? 1 3 ? 1 1
Probability 3 1 ? ? 3 1 ? 1
𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑟
12 4 12 4 12

Questions:
a. How did you determine the frequency of each outcome?
b. How did you determine the probability of each outcome?
c. What kind of probability is illustrated on the table above?

C. Using the data obtained in A and B, complete the table below and answer the
questions that follow.

Outcome Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability

1 ? 1
4
2 1 ?
6
3 1 ?
6

4 ? 1
4

5 1 ?
6

6 1 1
6 12
Questions:
a. How is the experimental probability compared with the theoretical probability?
b. Do you think the results would be different if the number of trials is
increased?

D. Suppose that the same die is rolled for 24 more times and the following outcomes
are obtained.

10
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Outcome Frequency Probability
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
1 5

2 7 7
36
3 6 6 1
𝑜𝑟
36 6
4 7

5 5 5
36
6 6 6 1
𝑜𝑟
36 6
Questions:
a. How is the experimental probability of the outcomes in no. 3 compared with
the experimental probability of the outcomes in no. 4?
b. How is the experimental probability of the outcomes in no. 4 compared with
the theoretical probability of the outcomes?
c. How does experimental probability relate with the theoretical probability when
the number of trials increases?
Acitvity 2
Directions: Determine whether experimental or theoretical probability is used in each
of the following cases. Answer the questions that follow.
1. The probability of choosing a freshman from 30 freshmen and 30 sophomores
is ½.
2. The probability of getting no heads when tossing three coins simultaneously is
1
8
𝑜𝑟 12.5%.
5
3. A die is rolled, the probability of getting a number at most 5 is 6 𝑜𝑟 83.3%.

Questions:
1. What is your basis in identifying the type of probability illustrated in the problem
if it is theoretical probability?
2. What is your basis in identifying the type of probability illustrated in the problem
if it is experimental probability?

What I Have Learned

Directions: Supply the table below with the information required about theoretical
and experimental probability. You may choose your answers from the box
provided.

11
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability
Concepts Learned Concepts Learned

Examples Examples

what is expected to happen what actually happened

based on how frequent an outcome based on the number of favorable outcomes
occurred relative to the number of trials relative to the total number of possible
outcomes
expected probability observation-based probability
Toss a coin once and the probability of The probability of the occurrence of head is
1 3
getting a tail is 2. 10
when the coin is tossed 10 times and the
head came out 3 times.
The probability of getting an odd number is The probability of having a leap year in 4
1 1
when a die is rolled 20 times and an odd years is 4.
2
number occurred 10 times.

What I Can Do

Consider the situation below to answer the questions that follow:

The Department of Health (DOH) recorded a total of 98,232 Coronavirus

Disease 2019 (CoVID-19) positive cases in the Philippines of which 2,039 people died
from the disease. The probability of fatality is computed as follows:

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒

𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦) = × 100%
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒

2039
𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦) = 98232 × 100%

𝑃 (𝑓𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦) = 0.0208 × 100%

𝑃 (𝑓𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦) = 2.08%

Questions:
1. What kind of probability is shown above?
2. What does the numerical value of 2.08% indicate?
3. Given the data above, how should the public treat CoVID-19? Explain briefly.

12
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Assessment

Post-Assessment
Directions: Answer each of the following items accurately. Write the letter of the
correct answer on a separate sheet of paper.

1. Which of the following refers to experimental probability?

A. “Chance of an event to happen.”
B. “Chance of an event not to happen.”
C. “Chance of an event that must happen.”
D. “Chance of an event based on what happened.”

2. Two dice are rolled 100 times and the sum 4 showed up 7 times. If the
probability that the sum 4 occurred 7 times is 7/100, what probability is
illustrated?
A. Expected Probability C. Subjective Probability
B. Experimental Probability D. Theoretical Probability

3. Which of the following illustrates theoretical probability?

3
A. The probability of drawing a face card from a standard deck of cards is 13
.
B. Sally and Tony played rock-paper-scissor 30 times, If Sally lost 14 times,
16 8
then probability that Tony won the game is 30
= 15 𝑜𝑟 53.3%.
C. A spinner with 5 congruent sectors colored yellow, red, blue, green and
white is rotated 100 times. If the arrow landed on green 20 times, then the
20 1
probability of getting a color green is = or 20%.
100 5
D. A 6-sided die is rolled 10 times, The results are: a 1 showed up 3 times, a
2 showed up 2 times, a 4 showed up 3 times, and a 6 showed up 2 times.
3
The probability of a 4 showing is 10.

For items 4 - 8, consider the situation below.

A spinner, with congruent sectors colored with red, orange, blue, green,
white, pink, violet, brown, black and gray, is rotated eight times and the
results are recorded in the table below.

Outcome
Trial
Red Orange Blue Green White Pink Violet Brown Black Gray
1 Violet
2 Blue
3 White
4 Blue
5 Pink
6 Brown
7 Violet
8 Violet
Frequency 0 0 2 0 1 1 3 1 0 0

13
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 4. How many trials were done?
A. 6 B. 8 C. 10 D. 12

5. Which colors in the experiment appeared at least twice?

A. Red and Orange C. Blue and Green
B. Blue and Violet D. Black and Gray

6. Did the arrow ever land on the orange sector?

A. Yes B. No C. Yes, once D. Yes, twice

7. What is the probability that the arrow landed on the black sector?
1 1
A. 0 B. C. D. 1
10 8

8. What is the experimental probability that the arrow landed on the violet
sector?
1 1 3 3
A. 10 B. 8 C. 10 D. 8

For items 9 - 12, consider the situation below.

The bakeshop manager recorded the number of cakes sold for 4 cake
flavors which are mostly preferred by customers on a certain day. Tallying only
the customers who bought a single flavor, the number of pieces sold for each
flavor are indicated in the table below.

Flavor Number of sold pieces

Chocolate 39
Ube 15
Mango 20
Vanilla 16

9. How many pieces of vanilla-flavored cake were sold?

A. 15 B. 16 C. 29 D. 30

10. Which of the following cake flavors has the greatest number of sales?
A. Chocolate B. Ube C. Mango D. Vanilla

11. What is the probability that a customer buying a single flavor of cake did not
buy an ube-flavored cake?
1 1 3 5
A. B. C. D.
3 6 4 6

12. What is the probability that a customer bought a chocolate flavored cake?
1 13 39 5
A. 39 B. 30 C. 60 D. 6

For items 13-15, consider the situation below.

A coin is tossed 100 times, 1,000 times, 10,000 times, the results are
recorded in the table below.

14
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
Possible Outcome Ratio of occurrence Ratio of occurrence Ratio of occurrence
with 100 trials with with
1,000 trials 10,000 trials
H 9 12 5,039
20 25 10,000
T 11 13 4,961
20 25 10,000

13. Which of the following is true between the probabilities of the outcomes with
100 trials and 1,000 trials?
A. The experimental probability of getting a head in 100 trials is lower than
the experimental probability of getting a head in 1,000 trials.
B. The experimental probability of getting a head in 100 trials is higher than
the experimental probability of getting a head in 1,000 trials.
C. There is no difference between experimental probability of getting a head in
100 trials and the experimental probability of getting a head in 1,000
trials.
D. The experimental probability of getting a head in 100 trials is equal with
the experimental probability of getting a head in 1,000 trials.

14. Which of the following is true between the probabilities of the outcomes with
1,000 trials and 10,000 trials?
A. The experimental probability of getting a tail in 1,000 trials is lower than
the experimental probability of getting a tail in 10,000 trials.
B. The experimental probability of getting a tail in 1,000 trials is higher than
the experimental probability of getting a tail in 10,000 trials.
C. There is no difference between experimental probability of getting a tail in
1,000 trials and the experimental probability of getting a tail in 10,000
trials.
D. The experimental probability of getting a tail in 1,000 trials is equal with
the experimental probability of getting a tail in 10,000 trials.
15. How does an increase in the number of trials in an experiment affect the
experimental probability of an event?
A. The experimental probability tends to get closer to the theoretical
probability of the event.
B. The experimental probability tends to get farther to the theoretical
probability of the event.
C. The experimental probability and the theoretical probability of the event
become equal.
D. The experimental probability does not have definite relationship to the
theoretical probability.

15
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
 Additional Activities

A die is rolled and a coin is tossed ten times. The yields are recorded in the table
below.
Outcome
Trial
(1,H) (1,T) (2,H) (2,T) (3,H) (3,T) (4,H) (4,T) (5,H) (5,T) (6,H) (6,T)
1 (1,H)
2 (3,T)
3 (1,T)
4 (2,H)
5 (3,H)
6 (2,T)
7 (2,T)
8 (4,H)
9 (2,T)
10 (4,H)

Questions:
1. What are the possible outcomes when a die is rolled once, and a coin is tossed
once?
2. Which of the expected outcomes did not occur?
3. Why do you think some expected outcomes did not occur?
4. What is the experimental probability of getting an odd number on a die and a tail
on a coin?
5. What is the theoretical probability of getting an odd number on a die and a tail on
a coin?
6. How did the observation-based probability of getting an odd number on a die and
a tail on a coin compare with the expected probability of getting an odd number
on a die and a tail on a coin?
7. Do you think this would have been different if the number of trials is increased?

16
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
17
What I What’s In What’s New What’s More
Know
1. C Activity 1
1. The probability of
1. D getting a head when A.
2. D 2. F tossing a single coin is ½.
2 1
3. D And the expected 1. or
12 6
probability of getting a tail
4. A 3. E
is also ½. 1
5. D 2.
6
6. C 4. A 2. When the same coin is
tossed 20 times, the 1
7. B 3.
5. B probability of getting a 6
8. C head is 14/20 or 7/10 and
9. B the probability of getting a 2 1
4. or
10. A tail is 6/20 or 3/10. 12 6
1. By using the formula in finding the
11. B 1
probability of simple events 3. The head is frequently 5.
12. B 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = 6
occurring and I did not
13. A 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
expect this to happen.
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 (𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑆𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒) Questions:
14. B as discussed in the previous lesson.
15. C 4. There will be changes
on the probability of a. By using the formula
2. The probabilities obtained in items 1 𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
getting a head and the 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = and knowing
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
and 2 are based on ideal occurrences,
probability of getting a tail that a die is fair, all the outcomes are equally likely
answered theoretically and no to occur, so each outcome has the same
if I continue tossing the
experiments are performed. The probability of occurrence which is 1/6.
coin 50 times or more.
Probabilities obtained in items 3, 4 and b. Expecting that the probability remains the same
5 are based on actual results or when the die is rolled 12 times, each outcome will
recorded data in the experiment. occur twice out of the 12 times rolling or 2/12.
c. Theoretical Probability
What’s More
B.
Frequency 3 1 3 3 1 1
Probability 3 1 𝟏 𝟑 𝟏 3 1 𝟏 1
𝑜𝑟 𝒐𝒓 𝑜𝑟
12 4 𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟐 𝟒 12 4 𝟏𝟐 12
a. a. By counting the number of occurrences of the possible outcomes in rolling a die 12 times.
𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
b. b. By using the formula 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = .
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
a. c. Experimental Probability
What’s More What’s More What’s More What I Can Do
1. Experimental Probability
C. D. Activity 2
1 2. It indicates the probability
1. 5 7
6 of dying once diagnosed
1 1. 4. 1. Theoretical Probability
2. 36 36 positive from COVID-19
12 2. Theoretical Probability
1
3. a.The experimental probability of the possible 3. Theoretical Probability
4 3. Answers may vary.
outcomes in No.3 is lower than the experimental
1
probability of the possible outcomes in No. 4.
4. Experimental Probability
4.
6 b. The experimental probability of the possible
1 outcomes in No. 4 is higher than the theoretical
5.
12 probability of the possible outcomes.
c.When the number of trials increases, the
experimental probability gets closer to the
theoretical probability.
What I Have Learned Assessment
Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability
Concepts Learned Concepts Learned
1. D 4. B 7. A 10. A 13. A
- what should happen - what did happen 2. B 5`. B 8. D 11. D 14. B
- based on the number of favorable - based on how frequent an outcome
outcomes relative to the total occurred relative to the number of 3. A 6. B 9. B 12. B 15. A
possible outcomes trials
- expected probability - observation-based probability
Additional Activity
1.(1,H),(1,T), (2,H),(2,T),(3,H),(3,T),(4,H),(4,T),(5,H),(5,T),(6,H),(6,T)
Examples Examples 2. (4,T), (5,H), (5,T), (6,H), (6,T)
-Toss a coin and the probability of - The probability of the occurrence of 3. There is no assurance that all possible outcomes will show up when
1 3
getting a tail is . head is when the coin is tossed 10 a die is rolled, and a coin is tossed 10 times. Or the number of trials is
2 10
-The probability of having a leap times and the head came out 3 not enough for all possible outcomes to occur.
1
year in 4 years is . times. 4. 2/10 or 1/5
4
-The probability of getting an odd 5. 3/12 or ¼
1
number is when a die is tossed 20 6. The observation-based probability of getting an odd number on a die
2
times and an odd number occurred and a tail on a coin is lower than the expected probability of getting an
10 times. odd number on a die and a tail on a coin.
7. Yes
Answer Key
References

Abuzo, E.P., Bryant, M.L., Cabrella, J.B., Caldez, B.P., Callanta, M.M., Castro, A.I.,
Halabaso, A.R., et.al (2013). Mathematics 8 – Learner’s Module. Department
of Education, Pasig City, Philippines, pp. 565-570.

Crisostomo, R.M., de Sagun, P.C., Padua, A.L., Our World of Math (2013), Vibal
Publishing
House, Inc., Quezon City, Philippines, pp. 409-425.

Gabriel, J.L., Mallari, M.G., (2017). Mathematics 8 for A Spiral Approach

Explanations, Examples, Exercises. Educational Resources Corporation,
Quezon City, Philippines, pp. 228-231.

Ulpina, J.N., Tizon, L.T., (2014). Math Builders 8. JO-ES Publishing House, Inc.,
Valenzuela City, Phillippines, pp. 397-400.

18
CO_Q4_Mathematics 8_ Module 9
For inquiries or feedback, please write or call:

Department of Education - Bureau of Learning Resources (DepEd-BLR)

Ground Floor, Bonifacio Bldg., DepEd Complex

Meralco Avenue, Pasig City, Philippines 1600

Telefax: (632) 8634-1072; 8634-1054; 8631-4985

Email Address: [email protected] * [email protected]