Lecture 11
Lecture 11
LINEAR MODELS
1. E XPONENTIAL FAMILY.
Exponential family comprises a set of flexible distribution ranging both
continuous and discrete random variables. The members of this family have
many important properties which merits discussing them in some general
format. Many of the probability distributions that we have studied so far are
specific members of this family:
• Gaussian: Rp
• Multinomial: categorical
• Bernoulli: binary {0, 1}
• Binomial: counts of success/failure
• Von mises: sphere
• Gamma: R+
• Poisson: N+
• Laplace: R+
• Exponential: R+
• Beta: (0, 1)
• Dirichlet: ∆ (Simplex)
• Weibull: R+
• Weishart: symmetric positive-definite matrices
All these distributions follow the general format:
M
where x = (x1 , x2 , · · · , xN )> and
P
µk = 1. Following the same process
k=1
as Bernoulli, we have:
M
X
p(x|η) = exp{η > x + log(1 + ηk )−1 },
k=1
where
exp(ηk )
(7) µk = P = softmax(k, η).
1 + j exp(ηj )
λx e−λ 1
(8) p(x|λ) = = exp{x log λ − λ},
x! x!
where
• η = λ,
• t(x) = x,
• a(η) = λ = eη ,
• and h(x) = x!1 .
P (x|µ, σ 2 ) =
−(x − µ)2
1
= √ exp
2πσ 2 2σ 2
1 µ 1 2 1 2
(9) = √ exp .x − 2 .x − 2 µ − log(σ) ,
2π σ2 2σ 2σ
where
• η = h σµ2 2σ
−1
2 i,
• t(x) = hx x2 i,
• h(x) = √12π ,
µ2 −η12
• and a(η) = 2σ 2
+ log(σ) = 4η2
− 12 log(−2η2 ).
4 HANI GOODARZI AND SINA JAFARPOUR
• The observed input enters the model through a linear function (β > X).
• The conditional mean of response, is represented as a function of
the linear combination:
.
(14) E[Y |X] = u = f (β > X).
• The observed response is drawn from an exponential family distri-
bution with conditional mean µ, as explained in Equation (13).
Figure 3 summarizes the relationships between the variables in a GLM. It
Consequently,
−y 2 ηy − η2/2
1
(16) p(y|η) = √ exp exp
2πσ 2 σ
−(y − η)2
1
= p(y|η) = √ exp .
2πσ 2σ
Generally, we have two choice points in order to specify the generalized
linear model. The choice of the response function f , or how to treat the
linear combination of the observed input, and the choice of the exponen-
tial family distribution of the observed output y. Note that Ψ is completely
determined by choosing the exponential family. As a result, choosing ap-
propriate response function and exponential family is one of the major tasks
in probabilistic modeling, and once the choices are made, the general frame-
work of the exponential family can be applied to the modeled data.