Climate Risk Country Profile: Thailand
Climate Risk Country Profile: Thailand
Climate Risk Country Profile: Thailand
THAILAND
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Cover Photos: © doronko, “Thailand” March 4, 2009 via Flickr, Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. © Sanchez Jalapeno,
“Thailand” August 17, 2011 via Flickr, Creative Commons CC BY-NCND 2.0.
This profile was written by Alex Chapman (Consultant, ADB), William Davies (Consultant, ADB) and Ciaran Downey (Consultant).
Technical review of the profiles was undertaken by Robert L. Wilby (Loughborough University). Additional support was provided
by MacKenzie Dove (Senior Climate Change Consultant, WBG), Jason Johnston (Operations Analyst, WBG), Yunziyi Lang
(Climate Change Analyst, WBG), Adele Casorla-Castillo (Consultant, ADB), and Charles Rodgers (Consultant, ADB). This profile
also benefitted from inputs of WBG and ADB regional staff and country teams.
Climate and climate-related information is largely drawn from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), a WBG online
platform with available global climate data and analysis based on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reports and datasets. The team is grateful for all comments and suggestions received from the sector, regional, and country
development specialists, as well as climate research scientists and institutions for their advice and guidance on use of climate
related datasets.
FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
KEY MESSAGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
COUNTRY OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
CLIMATOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Climate Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Key Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Climate Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Climate change is a major risk to good development outcomes, and the World Bank Group is committed to playing an important
role in helping countries integrate climate action into their core development agendas. The World Bank Group (WBG) and the
Asian Development Bank (ADB) are committed to supporting client countries to invest in and build a low-carbon, climate-
resilient future, helping them to be better prepared to adapt to current and future climate impacts.
Both institutions are investing in incorporating and systematically managing climate risks in development operations through
their individual corporate commitments.
For the World Bank Group: a key aspect of the World Bank Group’s Action Plan on Adaptation and Resilience (2019) is to help
countries shift from addressing adaptation as an incremental cost and isolated investment to systematically incorporating climate
risks and opportunities at every phase of policy planning, investment design, implementation and evaluation of development
outcomes. For all International Development Association and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development operations,
climate and disaster risk screening is one of the mandatory corporate climate commitments. This is supported by the World
Bank Group’s Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool which enables all Bank staff to assess short- and long-term climate
and disaster risks in operations and national or sectoral planning processes. This screening tool draws up-to-date and relevant
information from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, a comprehensive online ‘one-stop shop’ for global,
regional, and country data related to climate change and development.
For the Asian Development Bank (ADB): its Strategy 2030 identified “tackling climate change, building climate and disaster
resilience, and enhancing environmental sustainability” as one of its seven operational priorities. Its Climate Change Operational
Framework 2017–2030 identified mainstreaming climate considerations into corporate strategies and policies, sector and
thematic operational plans, country programming, and project design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of climate
change considerations as the foremost institutional measure to deliver its commitments under Strategy 2030. ADB’s climate
risk management framework requires all projects to undergo climate risk screening at the concept stage and full climate risk
and adaptation assessments for projects with medium to high risk.
Recognizing the value of consistent, easy-to-use technical resources for our common client countries as well as to support
respective internal climate risk assessment and adaptation planning processes, the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Group
and ADB’s Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department have worked together to develop this content. Standardizing
and pooling expertise facilitates each institution in conducting initial assessments of climate risks and opportunities across sectors
within a country, within institutional portfolios across regions, and acts as a global resource for development practitioners.
For common client countries, these profiles are intended to serve as public goods to facilitate upstream country diagnostics,
policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends and projected changes in key climate
parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs, adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions.
We hope that this combined effort from our institutions will spur deepening of long-term risk management in our client countries
and support further cooperation at the operational level.
• Observations show temperature increases across Thailand since the mid-20th century and an increase in
annual precipitation. Most of this increase occurs during the wet season.
• By the 2090s, the average temperature is projected to increase by 0.95°C–3.23°C above the 1986–2005
baseline, with the rate of warming dependent on the emissions pathway.
• Projected temperature increases are strongest in the south, and in daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
• Floods are by far the greatest natural hazard facing Thailand in terms of economic and human impacts.
Thailand is cited as one of the ten most flood-affected countries in the world. Drought and cyclone impacts
also represent major hazards. All may intensify in future climate scenarios.
• The number of people affected by an extreme river flood could grow by over 2 million by 2035–2044, and
coastal flooding could affect a further 2.4 million people by 2070–2100.
• Projections suggest that Thailand’s agriculture sector could be significantly affected by a changing climate,
due to its location in the tropics where agricultural productivity is particularly vulnerable to temperature rises.
• The combination of rising seas and sinking land, as well as potential cyclone-induced storm surge resulted
from the climate change impact, place the country’s capital Bangkok in a precarious position when the net, or
relative, rate of sea-level rise. Large amounts of critical public and private infrastructure are in areas which are
likely to be exposed under future climate change situation.
• The aftermath of devastating floods in 2011 provides an example of how climate change can adversely affect
poorer people in Thailand, with studies showing that post-flood, higher income groups received more government
compensation than lower income groups.
• The human impacts of climate change in Thailand remain dependent on the approach to adaptation adopted,
but there is a significant risk that the poorest and marginalized groups will experience disproportionately
greater loss and damage.
COUNTRY OVERVIEW
T
hailand is the 20th most populous country in the world, located at the center of Southeast Asia with a land
area of 513,120 km2. Thailand is categorized into key areas: the northern region is hilly and mountainous,
the northeast region is a high plain, with the central region as a large, low plain, the eastern region has
valleys and small hills, with the western region being hilly and mountainous. The southern end of the country is a
peninsula with the Andaman Sea to the west and Gulf of Thailand. Located in the tropical region, Thailand’s climate
is relatively warm all year round.1
By 2030, Thailand’s population is projected to reach about 71–77 million, with an increasing proportion living in urban
areas. Thailand’s economy is 90% based on the industrial and service sector, with the agricultural sector accounting
for only 10% (but 33% of the workforce).2 The latter half of the 20th century witnessed significant economic growth
1
Thailand (2018). Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Thailand%20TNC.pdf
2
CIA (2018). The World Factbook: Thailand. URL: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/th.html
Thailand submitted its Third National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2018, its Initial Nationally Determined
Contribution in 2016 and its Updated Nationally Determined Contribution in 2020. Thailand is recognized as
highly vulnerable to climate variability and change due to increasing natural hazards, such as heavy rainfall, floods,
and droughts, as well as sea level rise impacts the country’s coasts. Thailand is focusing its adaptation efforts key
sectors such as energy, water, transportation, agriculture, human settlements and public health.4
3
World Bank (2018). The World Bank in Thailand URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview [accessed 12/12/2018]
4
Thailand (2018). Thailand’s Third National Communication. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. URL: https://unfccc.int/
sites/default/files/resource/Thailand%20TNC.pdf
5
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO (2020) The state of food security and nutrition in the world. Transforming food systems for
affordable healthy diets. FAO. Rome. URL: http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca9692en/
6
ADB (2020). Basic Statistics 2020. URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/basic-statistics-2020 [accessed 27/01/21]
7
World Bank (2019). Income share held by lowest 20%. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/ [accessed 17/12/20]
8
UNDESA (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: MIGR/1URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
[accessed 17/12/20]
9
UNDESA (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: MORT/1-1. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
[accessed 17/12/20]
10
UNDESA (2019). World Urbanization Prospects 2018: File 6. URL: https://population.un.org/wup/Download/ [accessed 17/12/20]
11
UNDESA (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: POP/11-A. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
[accessed 17/12/20]
12
CIA (2020). The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Washington DC. URL: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
13
ADB (2020). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2020. Asian Development Bank. URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/
key-indicators-asia-and-pacific-2020
14
ADB (2020). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2020. Asian Development Bank. URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/
key-indicators-asia-and-pacific-2020
This document aims to succinctly summarize the climate risks faced by Thailand. This includes rapid onset and
long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities, livelihoods and
economies, many of which are already underway. This is a high-level synthesis of existing research and analyses,
focusing on the geographic domain of Thailand, therefore potentially excluding some international influences
and localized impacts. The core data presented is sourced from the database sitting behind the World Bank
Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP),
incorporating climate projections from the Coupled
Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). FIGURE 1. The ND-GAIN Index summarizes a
This document is primarily meant for WBG and ADB country’s vulnerability to climate change and
staff to inform their climate actions. The document also other global challenges in combination with its
aims and to direct the reader to many useful sources readiness to improve resilience. It aims to help
of secondary data and research. businesses and the public sector better prioritize
investments for a more efficient response to
Due to a combination of political, geographic, and the immediate global challenges ahead.
social factors, Thailand is recognized as vulnerable 59
to climate change impacts, ranked 62nd out of
58
181 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index.15 The
ND-GAIN Index ranks 181 countries using a score 57
56
change and other global challenges as well as their
readiness to improve resilience. The more vulnerable 55
15
University of Notre Dame (2020). Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. URL: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/
Climate Baseline
Overview
Thailand has a tropical climate influenced by seasonal monsoon winds. The southwest monsoon (May) brings a
stream of warm moist air from the Indian Ocean towards Thailand, causing abundant rain over the country, especially
the mountainous regions. This phenomenon is intensified by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the
months of May to October and tropical cyclones which produce large amounts of rainfall. The northeast monsoon,
starting in October, brings cold and dry air from the anticyclone in China over major parts of Thailand, especially the
northern and northeastern parts which are located at higher latitude areas. In the south, the monsoon causes mild
weather and abundant rain along the eastern coast.16 Figure 2 provides an overview of Thailand’s seasonal climate
cycle, but hides sub-national variations, across the latest climatology, 1991–2020. Thailand’s hottest months are
April and May, with the coldest months experienced during December and January. The mean annual temperature is
26.3°C, with a seasonal temperature variation of 5.7°C (between lows of 23.2°C and highs of 28.9°C). The months
with the highest rainfall are August and September, with approximately 255 mm recorded during these months.
The months with the highest rainfall coincide with Thailand’s monsoon season, May to October. Mean annual rainfall
is 1,542 mm. Figure 3 shows the spatial differences of observed historical temperature and rainfall in Thailand.
Annual Cycle
28 200
Rainfall (mm)
24 100
20 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rainfall Temperature
16
Thailand (2018). Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Thailand%20TNC.pdf
17
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021). Thailand Climate Data: Historical. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/thailand/climate-data-historical
FIGURE 3. (Left) annual mean temperature (°C), and (right) annual mean rainfall (mm) in Thailand
over the period 1991–2020.18
Key Trends
Temperature
Various studies report temperature increases across Thailand since mid-20th century. Manton et al. (2001) report a
significant increase in minimum temperatures at meteorological stations located in Thailand between 1961–1998,
as well as an increase in the number of warm nights.19 Atsamon (2011) observed increases in daily maximum, mean
and minimum temperatures at 65 meteorological stations between 1970–2006 (0.12–0.59°C, 0.10–0.40°C and
0.11–0.55°C per decade, respectively).20
18
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021). Thailand Climate Data: Projections. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/thailand/climate-data-projections
19
Manton, M.J. & Della-Marta, Paul & Haylock, M.R. & Hennessy, K & Nicholls, Neville & Chambers, Lynda & Collins, D.A. & Daw, G &
Finet, A & Gunawan, Dodo & Inape, Kasis & Isobe, H & Kestin, T.S. & Lefale, Penehuro & Leyu, C.H. & Lwin, T & Maitrepierre, Luc &
Ouprasitwong, N & Page, C.M. & Yee, D. (2001). Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and The South
Pacific: 1961–1998. International Journal of Climatology. 21. 269 - 284. URL: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/
joc.610
20
Limsakul, Atsamon & Limjirakan, Sangchan & Sriburi, Thavivongse & Boochub Suttamanuswong, and. (2011). Trends in Temperature
and Its Extremes in Thailand. Thai Environmental Engineering Journal. 25. 9–16. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/
230692853_Trends_in_Temperature_and_Its_Extremes_in_Thailand
Climate Future
Overview
The main data source for the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) is the Coupled
Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which are utilized within the Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), providing estimates of future temperature and
precipitation. Four Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were
selected and defined by their total radiative forcing (cumulative measure of GHG emissions from all sources)
pathway and level by 2100. In this analysis, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the extremes of low and high emissions pathways,
are the primary focus where RCP2.6 represents a very strong mitigation scenario and RCP8.5 assumes business-
as-usual scenario. For more information, please refer to the RCP Database.
21
Carbon Brief (2018). Mapped: How every part of the world has warmed – and could continue to. Infographics, Berkeley Dataset.
[26 September 2018]. URL: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-every-part-of-the-world-has-warmed-and-could-continue-
to-warm
22
Lacombe, Guillaume & Hoanh, Chu & Smakhtin, Vladimir. (2012). Multi-year variability or unidirectional trends? Mapping long-term
precipitation and temperature changes in continental Southeast Asia using PRECIS regional climate model. Climatic Change. 113.
URL: https://wle.cgiar.org/multi-year-variability-or-unidirectional-trends-mapping-long-term-precipitation-and-temperature-0
23
Lyon, B. (2004). The strength of El Nino and the spatial extent of tropical drought. Advances in Geosciences, 31. URL: https://
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2004GL020901
24
Limsakul, A. and Singhruck, P. (2016). Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand. Atmospheric
Research, 169, pp. 301–317. URL: https://tdri.or.th/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/1-long-term-trends-main.pdf
25
Gasser, T., Kechiar, M., Ciais, P., Burke, E. J., Kleinen, T., Zhu, D., . . . Obersteiner, M. (2018). Path-dependent reductions in CO2
emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release. Nature Geoscience. URL: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15453/
TABLE 2. Projected anomaly (changes °C) for maximum, minimum, and average daily temperatures
in Thailand for 2040–2059 and 2080–2099, from the reference period of 1986–2005 for all RCPs.
The table is showing the median of the CCKP model ensemble and the 10–90th percentiles
in brackets26
TABLE 3. Projections of average temperature change (°C) in Thailand for different seasons
(3-monthly time slices) over different time horizons and emissions pathways, showing the median
estimates of the full CCKP model ensemble and the 10th and 90th percentiles in bracket20
2040–2059 2080–2099
Scenario Jun–Aug Dec–Feb Jun–Aug Dec–Feb
RCP2.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
(0.2, 2.0) (−0.6, 2.6) (0.1, 2.0) (−0.4, 2.6)
RCP4.5 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9
(0.5, 2.5) (−0.4, 2.8) (0.9, 3.0) (0.2, 3.7)
RCP6.0 1.2 1.0 2.3 2.1
(0.3, 2.3) (−0.8, 2.2) (1.2, 3.7) (0.2, 4.0)
RCP8.5 1.6 1.9 3.5 3.8
(0.6, 2.8) (0.1, 3.4) (2.4, 5.4) (1.4, 6.1)
26
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021). Thailand Climate Data: Projections. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/thailand/climate-data-projections
27
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., . . . Rummukainen, M. (2013). Evaluation of Climate
Models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 741–866. URL: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_
FINAL.pdf
FIGURE 5. CMIP5 ensemble projected change (32 GCMs) in annual temperature (top) and
precipitation (bottom) by 2040–2059 (left) and by 2080–2090 (right) relative to 1986–2005
baseline under RCP8.5.28
28
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP 2021). Thailand. Climate Data. Projections. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/thailand/climate-data-projections
31 7
30 6
Temperature (°C)
Temperature (°C)
29 5
28 4
27 3
26 2
25 1
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Year
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, average temperatures are projected to increase by 3.8°C by the 2080s,
approximately 0.5°C less than the global average, and 1.1°C by the 2080s under the RCP2.6 emissions pathway,
similar to the projected global average. Under all emissions scenarios, annual average of monthly maximum and
monthly minimum temperatures are projected to increase considerably greater than projected increases in the
average temperature (Table 2). For example, under RCP8.5 emissions pathway, by the 2090s annual average
monthly maximum is projected at 3.8°C, minimum at 3.9°C compared to the annual average of 3.2°C.
As shown in Table 3 and Figure 7, there is relatively little seasonal variation in projected temperature rises, across
all emissions pathways. What is evident in Figure 7 is the high degree of uncertainty surrounding these projections.
29
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP 2021). Thailand. Climate Data. Projections. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/thailand/climate-data-projections
2600
studies applying downscaling techniques to assess
2400
precipitation changes.30 Downscaling studies in the
Precipitation (mm)
2200
upper Ping River Basin in the north of the country 2000
1600
catchment, with wet days increasing in frequency and
1400
extent during the wet season for some areas, and in 1200
the dry season for the central areas of the catchment.31 1000
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
For the Bangkok region, one study suggests an increase
in precipitation during the rainy season by 2100.32
Downscaling studies in the upper Ping River Basin in the north of the country project rainfall extent and frequency
to vary across the catchment, with wet days increasing in frequency and extent during the wet season for some
areas, and in the dry season for the central areas of the catchment.
The poor performance of global climate models in consistently projecting precipitation trends has been linked to
their poor simulation of the El Niño phenomenon,33,34 an important area for future development. While considerable
uncertainty surrounds projections of local long-term future precipitation trends (see Figure 8) some global trends
are evident. The intensity of sub-daily extreme rainfall events appears to be increasing with temperature, a finding
supported by evidence from different regions of Asia.35
30
Lacombe, G., Hoanh, C. T., & Smakhtin, V. (2012). Multi-year variability or unidirectional trends? Mapping long-term precipitation
and temperature changes in continental Southeast Asia using PRECIS regional climate model. Climatic Change, 113(2), 285–299.
URL: http://publications.cirad.fr/une_notice.php?dk=593587
31
Saengsawang, S., Pankhao, P., Kaprom, C. and Sriwongsitanon, N., 2017. Projections of future rainfall for the upper Ping River Basin
using regression-based downscaling. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8(4), pp. 256–267. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.
com/science/article/pii/S1674927817300084
32
Vu, M.T., Aribarg, T., Supratid, S., Raghavan, S.V. and Liong, S.Y., 2016. Statistical downscaling rainfall using artificial neural
network: significantly wetter Bangkok?. Theoretical and applied climatology, 126(3–4), pp. 453–467. URL: https://www.tib.eu/en/
search/id/BLSE%3ARN379732731/Statistical-downscaling-rainfall-using-artificial/
33
Yun, K.S., Yeh, S.W. and Ha, K.J. (2016).. Inter-El Niño variability in CMIP5 models: Model deficiencies and future changes. Journal of
Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 3894–3906. URL: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..121.3894Y/abstract
34
Chen, C., Cane, M.A., Wittenberg, A.T. and Chen, D. 2017. ENSO in the CMIP5 simulations: life cycles, diversity, and responses to
climate change. Journal of Climate, 30, 775–801. URL: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/30/2/775/96236/ENSO-in-the-
CMIP5-Simulations-Life-Cycles
35
Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., Roberts, N. (2014). Future
changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Reviews of Geophysics, 52, 522–555. URL: https://
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014RG000464
Thailand faces high exposure to natural hazard risks and is ranked 81st out of 191 countries by the 2019 Inform
Risk Index36 (Table 4). Thailand has extremely high exposure to flooding (ranked 9th), including, riverine, flash,
and coastal flooding. Thailand also has exposure to tropical cyclones and their associated hazards (ranked 27th).
Drought exposure is also significant (ranked 29th). Thailand’s overall ranking on the INFORM risk index is somewhat
mitigated by its coping capacity and the levels of social vulnerability in its population, both of which are scored
higher than most other countries in the region. The section which follows analyses climate change influences on
the exposure component of risk in Thailand. The following section focuses on the climate change implications for
the natural hazard exposure component of risk in Thailand. As seen in Figure 1, the ND-GAIN Index presents
an overall picture of a country’s vulnerability and capacity to improve its resilience. In contrast, the Inform Risk
Index identifies specific risks across a country to support decisions on prevention, preparedness, response and a
country’s overall risk management.
TABLE 4. Selected indicators from the INFORM 2019 index for risk management for Thailand.
For the sub-categories of risk (e.g. “Flood”) higher scores represent greater risks. Conversely the
most at-risk country is ranked 1st. Global average scores are shown in brackets.
Lack of Overall
Tropical Coping Inform
Flood Cyclone Drought Vulnerability Capacity Risk Level Rank
(0–10) (0–10) (0–10) (0–10) (0–10) (0–10) (1–191)
8.8 [4.5] 4.9 [1.7] 5.7 [3.2] 3.1 [3.6] 3.9 [4.5] 4.1 [3.8] 81
Heatwaves
Thailand regularly experiences high maximum FIGURE 9. Projected changes in the probability
temperatures, with an average monthly maximum of of observing a heat wave in Thailand for the
around 31.6°C and an average April maximum of period 2080–2099. A ‘Heat Wave’ is defined
35.1°C. The current median probability of a heat wave as a period of 3 or more days where the
(defined as a period of 3 or more days where the daily daily temperature is above the long-term
temperature is above the long-term 95th percentile 95th percentile of daily mean temperature23.
of daily mean temperature) is around 3%23. Under all
0.8
emissions pathways, the likelihood of experiencing a 0.7
heat wave increases considerably by 2080–2099, 0.6
up to 18% under the RCP6.0 pathway and 31%
Daily probability
0.5
0.3
0.1
likelihood of experiencing heatwave: in the southern
0
areas of the country, the probability of heat wave per Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
36
European Commission (2019). INFORM Index for Risk Management. Thailand Country Profile. URL: https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
inform-index/INFORM-Risk/Country-Profile/moduleId/1767/id/386/controller/Admin/action/CountryProfile
FIGURE 10. Projected changes in the number of days with a Heat Index above 35°C by 2080–2099
under RCP8.5 emissions pathways.20
One study suggests climate change made a 29% contribution to the extreme temperatures experienced across
Southeast Asia in April 2016, while ENSO contributed 49%.37 The contribution of general global warming to
extreme temperatures has been growing (Figure 11), while the contribution of climate change through its impact
on the ENSO process is poorly understood.
37
Thirumalai, K., DiNezio, P. N., Okumura, Y., & Deser, C. (2017). Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened
by global warming. Nature Communications: 8: 15531. URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15531
83
90
91
92
95
98
01
03
04
05
10
13
14
16
and severe concurrently with increasing CO2 levels
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
38
Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Wyser, K., Mentaschi, L., Betts, R. A., Carrao, H., . . . Feyen, L. (2018). Global Changes in Drought Conditions
Under Different Levels of Warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(7), 3285–3296. URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/
doi/10.1002/2017GL076521
39
Nock, Charles & Baker, Patrick & Wanek, Wolfgang & Leis, Albrecht & Grabner, Michael & Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh & Hietz, Peter.
(2011). Long-term increases in intrinsic water-use efficiency do not lead to increased stem growth in a tropical monsoon forest in
Thailand. Global Change Biology. 17(2). pp1049-1063. URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02222.x
40
Thailand (2018). Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Thailand%20TNC.pdf
Probability
change are both likely to increase these figures. The 0.4
Paltan et al. (2018) demonstrate that even under lower emissions pathways coherent with the Paris Climate
Agreement almost all Asian countries face an increase in the frequency of extreme river flows. What would historically
have been a 1 in 100-year flow, could become a 1 in 50-year or 1 in 25-year event in most of South, Southeast, and
East Asia.42 There is good agreement among models on this trend.
Floods are by far the major natural hazard facing Thailand in terms of frequency and damage – the country is cited
as one of the ten most flood-affected in the world.43 According to the UNISDR,44 the average annual loss associated
with flooding in Thailand is approximately US$2.6 billion, which represents almost 100% of losses associated with
hazards. Studies suggest flooding incidence across the country are likely to increase as a result of climate change,
with higher frequency of intense rainfall events contributing to irregular riverbank overflow, flash floods in urban
areas and landslides and flash floods in mountain areas. Coastal areas are also likely to experience more flooding
from sea-level rise (see The Coastal Zone section).45,46
41
WRI (2018). AQUEDUCT Global Flood Analyzer. URL: https://floods.wri.org/# [Accessed: 22/11/2018]
42
Paltan, H., Allen, M., Haustein, K., Fuldauer, L., & Dadson, S. (2018). Global implications of 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds on extreme
river flows Global implications of 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds on extreme river flows. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 094003.
URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aad985/meta
43
Loo, Yen Yi & Billa, Lawal & Singh, Ajit. (2014). Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability
of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. Geoscience Frontiers. 36 (6), 817–823. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/
pii/S167498711400036X
44
UNISDR (2014). PreventionWeb: Basic country statistics and indicators. Available at: https://www.preventionweb.net/countries
45
Lebel, Louis & Manuta, Jesse & Garden, Po. (2010). Institutional traps and vulnerability to changes in climate and flood regimes in
Thailand. Regional Environmental Change. 11. 45–58. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-010-0118-4
46
Promchote, Parichart & Wang, Shih-Yu & Johnson, Paul. (2015). The 2011 Great Flood in Thailand: Climate Diagnostics and
Implications from Climate Change. Journal of Climate. 29 (1) 367–379. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/a47b/
2acca30c2039169a040e4583a6cc7467078f.pdf
TABLE 5. Estimated number of people in Thailand affected by an extreme river flood (extreme
flood is defined as being in the 90th percentile in terms of numbers of people affected) in the
historic period 1971–2004 and the future period 2035–2044. Figures represent an average of
all four RCPs and assume present day population distributions.40
Studies suggest that the frequency of extreme rainfall events (greater than 100mm in one day) are likely to become
more commonplace as result of climate warming.49 Thailand’s Second National Communication to the UNFCC
expects an increase in typhoons reaching Thailand between 2013 and 2043, while the number of monsoon storms
are projected to stay relatively stable during the same time-period. Higher sea levels and wetter pre-monsoon
conditions increase the risk of large-scale flooding, as experienced in 2011.50
47
Willner, S., Levermann, A., Zhao, F., Frieler, K. (2018). Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels.
Science Advances: 4:1. URL: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/1/eaao1914
48
Walsh, K., McBride, J., Klotzbach, P., Balachandran, S., Camargo, S., Holland, G., Knutson, T., Kossin, J., Lee, T., Sobel, A., Sugi, M.
(2015). Tropical cyclones and climate change. WIREs Climate Change: 7: 65–89. URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/
10.1002/wcc.371
49
USAID (2014). Thailand Climate Change Vulnerability Profile. URL: http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/thailand_country_profile___
june2014_press.pdf
50
Promchote, P., Wang, S.Y.S. and Johnson, P.G. (2016). The 2011 great flood in Thailand: Climate diagnostics and implications
from climate change. Journal of Climate, 29(1), pp. 367–379. URL: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/29/1/367/35049/
The-2011-Great-Flood-in-Thailand-Climate
Natural Resources
Water
Thailand’s NC2 describes the country’s water resources: 25 watershed areas, 6.4 million hectares irrigated,
14.6 million hectares rain-fed, with approximately a quarter of its 800 billion m3/year rainfall becoming utilizable
surface water and a total water storage capability of 74 billion cum., of which 90% is made of large and medium-
sized reservoirs. It is predicted water demand could rise to 120 billion m3/year as a result of population and
economic growth, threatening socio-economic development.1
Two river systems account for most water flows over Thailand’s land surface: namely the Mekong River in the east,
and Chao Phraya in the north and central regions. Both systems have been significantly influenced by human
development impacts on land cover. Issues such as deforestation and agricultural intensification have reduced
water retention and increased flood potential. Under climate change, most studies suggest flow volumes are likely
to increase under most emissions pathways and time horizons. One study showed a particularly large increase
(>20%) in runoff in the central province of Nakhon Sawan.51 The net change in runoff from the northeastern
region of Thailand which feeds the Mekong River is less clear, with models disagreeing on the direction of change.
However, there is convincing evidence that peak flows could increase, by 5–10% by 2036–2065.52 Future flows
in the Mekong River are also likely to be affected by the operation of hydropower dams.53
While overall annual precipitation is projected to increase, rainfall during some periods may decrease, such as
between September and October. This, alongside a less stable runoff regime, may have consequences for rice
agriculture, increasing water stress and requiring greater irrigated water requirements54 (see Agriculture section).
51
Kotsuki, S., Tanaka, K., & Watanabe, S. (2014). Projected hydrological changes and their consistency under future climate in the
Chao Phraya River Basin using multi-model and multi-scenario of CMIP5 dataset. Hydrological Research Letters, 8(1), 27–32.
URL: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/hrl/8/1/8_27/_article
52
Hoang, L. P., Lauri, H., Kummu, M., Koponen, J., Vliet, M. T. H. Van, Supit, I., . . . Ludwig, F. (2016). Mekong River flow and hydrological
extremes under climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 3027–3041. URL: https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/
20/3027/2016/
53
Räsänen, T.A., Someth, P., Lauri, H., Koponen, J., Sarkkula, J. and Kummu, M. (2017). Observed river discharge changes due to
hydropower operations in the Upper Mekong Basin. Journal of hydrology, 545, pp. 28–41. URL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/
publications/observed-river-discharge-changes-due-to-hydropower-operations-in-
54
Boonwichai, Siriwat & Shrestha, Sangam & Babel, Mukand & Weesakul, Sutat & Datta, Avishek. (2018). Climate change impacts
on irrigation water requirement, crop water productivity and rice yield in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. Journal of Cleaner
Production. 198, 1–1652. URL: https://www.x-mol.com/paper/744044?recommend
55
Church, J. a., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., . . . Unnikrishnan, A. S. (2013). Sea level change.
In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1137–1216). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge
University Press. URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf
Thailand’s First Biennial Update Report describes how coastal inundation and seawater intrusion are likely to
increase as a result of climate change, however specific studies are limited.57 Studies have explored the impacts
of extreme land subsidence on sea levels along Thailand’s coast.58 A 2013 study found relative sea level rise in
the Gulf of Thailand ranging from 1.4–12.7mm/year between 1985 and 2009 and that the largest contribution
to this rise was land subsidence at the river mouths.59 A combination of rising seas and sinking land, as well as
potential cyclone-induced storm surge, place the country’s capital Bangkok in a precarious position when the net,
or relative, rate of sea-level rise is considered.60 Land loss from sea-level rise will also affect sustainable land use
for economic activities in the tourism, import and export sectors and industrial zones. Large amounts of critical
public infrastructure is located in areas which are likely to be exposed under future climate change scenarios.61
As shown in Table 7, under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, by 2070–2100, up to 2.5 million people in Thailand
are potentially exposed to flooding from sea-level rise. However, with investment in effective adaptation, including
balancing of trade-offs between hard infrastructural approaches (e.g. dykes and sea-walls) and nature-based
approaches (e.g. habitat restoration), this number may be very significantly reduced.
56
Le Bars, D., Drijhout, S., de Vries, H. (2017) A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass
loss. Environmental Research Letters: 12:4. URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512
57
Thailand (2018). Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Thailand%20TNC.pdf
58
Saramul, S. and Ezer, T., 2014. Spatial variations of sea level along the coast of Thailand: Impacts of extreme land subsidence,
earthquakes and the seasonal monsoon. Global and Planetary Change, 122, pp. 70–81. URL: http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/∼tezer/
PAPERS/2014_GPC_GOT_SeaLev.pdf
59
Sojisuporn, Pramot & Sangmanee, Charmrat & Wattayakorn, Gullaya. (2013). Recent estimate of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Thailand.
Maejo International Journal of Science and Technology. 7. 106–113. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260166201_
Recent_estimate_of_sea-level_rise_in_the_Gulf_of_Thailand
60
Fuchs, Roland & Mostafanezhad, Mary & Louis, Elizabeth. (2011). Climate Change and Asia’s Coastal Urban Cities. Environment and
Urbanization Asia. 2. 13–28. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F097542531000200103
61
Duangyiwa, C., Yu, D., Wilby, R., Aobpaet, A. (2015) Coastal Flood Risks in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand: Combined
Impacts of Land Subsidence, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 14th–18th December 2015.
URL: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH33C1927D/abstract
TABLE 8. Land with problematic soils in Thailand, 2004. Source: Thailand’s second
national communication
62
UK Met Office (2014). Human dynamics of climate change: Technical Report. Met Office, UK Government. URL: https://www.
metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/climate/human-dynamics-of-climate-change/
hdcc_alternative_version.compressed.pdf
63
Bruun, T. B., de Neergaard, A., Burup, M. L., Hepp, C. M., Larsen, M. N., Abel, C., . . . Mertz, O. (2017). Intensification of Upland
Agriculture in Thailand: Development or Degradation? Land Degradation & Development, 28(1), 83–94. URL: https://onlinelibrary.
wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ldr.2596
64
Wijitkosum, S. (2016). The impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in degraded areas in Thailand. Sustainable
Environment Research, 26(2), 84–92. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246820391630019X
65
Leinenkugel, P., Wolters, M. L., Oppelt, N., & Kuenzer, C. (2015). Tree cover and forest cover dynamics in the Mekong Basin from 2001 to 2011.
Remote Sensing of Environment, 158, 376–392. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425714004313
66
Akber, M. A., & Shrestha, R. P. (2015). Land use change and its effect on biodiversity in Chiang Rai province of Thailand. Journal of
Land Use Science, 10(1), 108–128. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1747423x.2013.807315
Projections suggest that Thailand’s agriculture sector could be significantly affected from a changing climate, due
to its location in the tropics where agricultural productivity is particularly vulnerable.68 Boonwichai (2018) found that
decreases in rainfall during rice productive phase (September and October) and increases in temperature could
influence rice yield. Their study projects rain-fed rice yields to reduce 10% by 2080 under RCP 8.5 emissions
pathway and crop water productivity reducing 29% by 2080 under the same emissions pathway.47 Other work
suggests that Thailand could experience a 5.3% decrease in rice yield by 2041–2050 compared to the 1991–2000
baseline under the RCP 4.5 emissions pathway and a 6.1% decrease for the same time period under the RCP 8.5
emissions pathway.69
150
temperatures saw lychee crop productivity fall by
100
more than half.42 The impacts on agriculture are
projected to have regional variation: western, north- 50
67
Tebaldi, C., & Lobell, D. (2018). Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios. Environmental
Research Letters: 13: 065001. URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaba48
68
Hughes, J. (2007). The Impact of Climate Change on Tropical Agriculture. ICRISAT, 4(1). URL: https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/
review-on-impacts-of-climate-change-on-vegetable-production-and-its-management-practices-2329-8863-1000330-99188.html
69
Li, S., Wang, Q., & Chun, J. A. (2017). Impact assessment of climate change on rice productivity in the Indochinese Peninsula using a
regional-scale crop model. International Journal of Climatology, 37(April), 1147–1160. URL: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/
full/10.1002/joc.5072
The effects of temperature rise and heat stress in urban areas are increasingly compounded by the phenomenon
of Urban Heat Island (UHI). Dark surfaces, residential and industrial sources of heat, an absence of vegetation,
and air pollution73 can push temperatures higher than those of the rural surroundings, commonly anywhere in the
range of 0.1°C–3°C in global mega-cities.74 As well as impacting human health, the temperature peaks that result
from combined UHI and climate change, as well as future urban expansion, are likely to damage the productivity of
the service sector economy, both through direct impacts on labor productivity, but also through the additional costs
of adaptation. Studies have shown the presence of an UHI in Bangkok and how it is intensifying. Indeed, the UHI
severity is higher compared to other cities considered to have UHI problems such as Shanghai and San Diego, with
average annual temperatures 0.8°C higher than surrounding areas between 2008–2012.75
Research suggests that on average a one degree rise in ambient temperature can result in a 0.5%–8.5% increase
in electricity demand.76 Notably this serves business and residential air-cooling systems. This increase in demand
places strain on energy generation systems which is compounded by the heat stress on the energy generation
system itself, commonly due to its own cooling requirements, which can reduce its efficiency.77
70
Attavanich, Witsanu (2013): The Effect of Climate Change on Thailand’s Agriculture. Published in: 7th International Academic
Conference Proceedings No. ISBN: 978-80-905241-7-0: pp. 23–40. URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/84005/
71
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Rosenthal, Shane. (2003). Climate Change and Agriculture: A Review of Impacts and Adaptations.
Climate Change Series 91. Environment Department Papers, World Bank, Washington, D.C. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.
org/bitstream/handle/10986/16616/787390WP0Clima0ure0377348B00PUBLIC0.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
72
Mani, M., Bandyopadhyay, S., Chonabayashi, S., Markandya, A., Mosier, T. (2018) South Asia’s Hotspots: The Impact of Temperature
and Precipitation changes on living standards. South Asian Development Matters. World Bank, Washington DC. URL: https://
openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28723/9781464811555.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y
73
Cao, C., Lee, X., Liu, S., Schultz, N., Xiao, W., Zhang, M., & Zhao, L. (2016). Urban heat islands in China enhanced by haze pollution.
Nature Communications, 7, 1–7. URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms12509
74
Zhou, D., Zhao, S., Liu, S., Zhang, L., & Zhu, C. (2014). Surface urban heat island in China’s 32 major cities: Spatial patterns and
drivers. Remote Sensing of Environment, 152, 51–61. URL: https://chunxxu.github.io/zhaolab/assets/paper/201405.pdf
75
Arifwidodo, Sigit & Tanaka, Takahiro. (2015). The Characteristics of Urban Heat Island in Bangkok, Thailand. Procedia – Social and
Behavioral Sciences, 195, 423–428. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042815039634
76
Santamouris, M., Cartalis, C., Synnefa, A., & Kolokotsa, D. (2015). On the impact of urban heat island and global warming on the power
demand and electricity consumption of buildings—A review. Energy and Buildings, 98, 119–124. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/
science/article/abs/pii/S0378778814007907
77
ADB (2017). Climate Change Profile of Pakistan. Asian Development Bank. URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/climate-change-
profile-pakistan
Temperature (°F)
7500
Communities
5000
4500
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Poverty, Inequality, and
Disaster Vulnerability
Many of the climate changes projected are likely to disproportionately affect the poorest groups in society.
Vulnerability to climate change is differentiated across social groups, the result of embedded inequalities and
uneven power structures.78 For instance, heavy manual labor jobs are commonly among the lowest paid whilst
also being most at risk of productivity losses due to heat stress.79 Poorer businesses are least able to afford air
conditioning, an increasing need given the projected increase in cooling days. Poorer farmers and communities
are least able to afford local water storage, irrigation infrastructure, and technologies for adaptation.80 Poor people
are less able to invest in prevention and mitigation against adverse effects of environment change and natural
hazards.81 Studies have also shown that Thailand’s richer households are more likely to engage in adaptation
activities in advance of disaster than poorer counterparts.82 The aftermath of 2011’s devastating flood provides an
example of how climate change can adversely affect poorer people in Thailand. Post-flood, higher income groups
received more government compensation than lower income groups, 500 Bahts compared to 200 Bahts.
78
Plan International. (2018). Climate change, young women and girls: vulnerability, impacts and adaptations in northern Thailand.
URL: https://plan-international.org/publication/climate-change-girls-thailand
79
Kjellstrom, T., Briggs, D., Freyberg, C., Lemke, B., Otto, M., Hyatt, O. (2016) Heat, human performance, and occupational health:
A key issue for the assessment of global climate change impacts. Annual Review of Public Health: 37: 97–112. URL: https://
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26989826/
80
Hallegatte, Stéphane & Fay, Marianne & Barbier, Edward. (2018). Poverty and climate change: Introduction. Environment and
Development Economics. 23. 217–233. URL: https://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=US202000034159
81
Noy I and Patel P (2014). Floods and Spillovers: Households After the 2011 Great Flood in Thailand. Working Paper Series No. 3609.
Wellington: Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance. URL: https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2019/
working-paper/floods-and-spillovers-households-after-2011-great-flood-thailand
82
Hallegatte, Stéphane & Bangalore, Mook & Bonzanigo, Laura & Fay, Marianne & kane, tamaro & narloch, ulf & Rozenberg, Julie &
Treguer, David & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien. (2015). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. URL: https://
openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/22787
Gender
An increasing body of research has shown that climate-related disasters have impacted human populations in many
areas including agricultural production, food security, water management and public health. The level of impacts
and coping strategies of populations depends heavily on their socio-economic status, socio-cultural norms, access
to resources, poverty as well as gender. Research has also provided more evidence that the effects are not gender
neutral, as women and children are among the highest risk groups. Key factors that account for the differences
between women’s and men’s vulnerability to climate change risks include: gender-based differences in time use;
access to assets and credit, treatment by formal institutions, which can constrain women’s opportunities, limited
access to policy discussions and decision making, and a lack of sex-disaggregated data for policy change.88
Human Health
Nutrition
The World Food Programme estimate that without adaptation the risk of hunger and child malnutrition on a global
scale could increase by 20% by 205089. Springmann et al. (2016) assessed the potential for excess, climate-
related deaths associated with malnutrition90. The authors identify two key risk factors that are expected to be the
83
UNISDR (2014). PreventionWeb: Basic country statistics and indicators. URL: https://www.preventionweb.net/countries
[accessed 14/08/2018]
84
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Shinjiro Kanae, Sonia I. Seneviratne, John Handmer, Neville Nicholls, Pascal Peduzzi, Reinhard Mechler,
Laurens M. Bouwer, Nigel Arnell, Katharine Mach, Robert Muir-Wood, G. Robert Brakenridge, Wolfgang Kron, Gerardo Benito,
Yasushi Honda, Kiyoshi Takahashi & Boris Sherstyukov (2014) Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives,
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59:1, 1–28. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411
85
Haraguchi, M. and Lall, U. 2015. Flood risks and impacts: A case study of Thailand’s floods in 2011 and research questions for supply
chain decision making. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 14, 256–272. URL: https://trid.trb.org/view/1377177
86
Lebel, L., Manuta, J. B., & Garden, P. (2011). Institutional traps and vulnerability to changes in climate and flood regimes in Thailand.
Regional Environmental Change, 11(1), 45–58. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-010-0118-4
87
Willroth, P., Revilla Diez, J., & Arunotai, N. (2011). Modelling the economic vulnerability of households in the Phang-Nga Province (Thailand)
to natural disasters. Natural Hazards, 58(2), 753–769. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-010-9635-1
88
World Bank Group (2016). Gender Equality, Poverty Reduction, and Inclusive Growth. URL: http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/
en/820851467992505410/pdf/102114-REVISED-PUBLIC-WBG-Gender-Strategy.pdf
89
WFP (2015). Two minutes on climate change and hunger: A zero hunger world needs climate resilience. The World Food Programme.
URL: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000009143/download/
90
Springmann, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Robinson, S., Garnett, T., Godfray, H. C. J., Gollin, D., . . . Scarborough, P. (2016). Global and
regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study. The Lancet: 387: 1937–1946.
URL: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26947322/
Heat-Related Mortality
Research has placed a threshold of 35°C (wet bulb ambient air temperature) on the human body’s ability to regulate
temperature, beyond which even a very short period of exposure can present risk of serious ill-health and death.91
Temperatures significantly lower than the 35°C threshold of ‘survivability’ can still represent a major threat to human
health. Climate change will push global temperatures more towards the temperature ‘danger zone’ both through
slow-onset warming and intensified heat waves. Bangkok already faces potentially lethal combinations of high
temperatures and humidity on approximately 8 days per year.92
Honda et al. (2014), which utilized the A1B emissions scenario from CMIP3 (most comparable to RCP6.0),
estimates that without adaptation, annual heat-related deaths in the South-Eastern Asian region, could increase 295%
by 2030 and 691% by 2050.93 Under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, heat-related deaths for 65+ year-olds are
projected to increase considerably by 2080, from a baseline of 3 per 100,000 in 1961–1990 to 58 per 100,000.94
The potential reduction in heat-related deaths achievable by pursuing lower emissions pathways is significant, as
demonstrated by Mitchell et al. (2018).95
Disease
Climate change projections suggest a rise in infectious and vector-borne diseases in Thailand.81 Thailand’s Initial
National Communication conducted the first study on climate change impacts on health in Thailand, exploring the
relationship between temperature and mosquito growth rate. It found that increased temperatures could contribute
to the greater spread of malaria by 2050. However, further research on the relationship of malaria and dengue
diseases with climate factors has not established clear relationships and requires further study.1 Hydrological
changes may also enhance disease transmission in Thailand. Relationships between flood, drought and diarrheal
disease have been established,96 as has a relationship between flood and leptospirosis97.
91
Im, E. S., Pal, J. S., & Eltahir, E. A. B. (2017). Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia.
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