15822-WB - Solomon Islands Country Profile-WEB

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE
SOLOMON ISLANDS
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Cover Photos: © Arthur Chapman “Gardenia taitensis, Mbambanga Island, Western Province, Solomon Islands” July 28, 2019
via Flickr, Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. © Yvonne Green “Bonege Beach, Colomon Islands” September 23, 2021 via
Flickr, Creative Commons CC BY-NCND 2.0.
Graphic Design: Circle Graphics, Inc., Reisterstown, MD.
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This profile is part of a series of Climate Risk Country Profiles that are developed by the World Bank Group (WBG). These
profiles synthesize the most relevant data and information on climate change, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation actions and
policies at the country level. The profile is designed as a quick reference source for development practitioners to better integrate
climate resilience in development planning and policy making. This effort is co-led by Veronique Morin (Senior Climate Change
Specialist, WBG) and Ana E. Bucher (Senior Climate Change Specialist, WBG).
This profile was written by Alex Chapman (Consultant, NEF Consulting), William Davies (Consultant, NEF Consulting), Ciaran
Downey (Consultant, NEF Consulting) and MacKenzie Dove (Senior Climate Change Consultant, WBG). Technical review of the
profiles was undertaken by Robert L. Wilby (Loughborough University). Additional support was provided by Megumi Sato (Junior
Professional Officer, WBG), Jason Johnston (Operations Analyst, WBG) and Yunziyi Lang (Climate Change Analyst, WBG). This
profile also benefitted from inputs of WBG regional staff and country teams.
Climate and climate-related information is largely drawn from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), a WBG online
platform with available global climate data and analysis based on the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) reports and datasets. The team is grateful for all comments and suggestions received from the sector, regional, and
country development specialists, as well as climate research scientists and institutions for their advice and guidance on use of
climate related datasets.
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS iii

CONTENTS
FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
KEY MESSAGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
COUNTRY OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
CLIMATOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Climate Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Key Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Climate Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Model Ensemble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Heat Waves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Drought . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Flood and Cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Natural Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
The Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Coral Reefs and Fisheries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Forests and Island Ecology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Economic Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Agriculture and Food . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Tourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Communities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Poverty, Inequality and Vulnerability to Climate-Related Disaster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Climate-Driven Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Human Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
POLICIES AND PROGRAMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

National Adaptation Policies and Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Climate Change Priorities of the WBG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS iv

FOREWORD
Climate change is a major risk to good development outcomes, and the World Bank Group is committed to playing
an important role in helping countries integrate climate action into their core development agendas. The World
Bank Group is committed to supporting client countries to invest in and build a low-carbon, climate-resilient future,
helping them to be better prepared to adapt to current and future climate impacts.
The World Bank Group is investing in incorporating and systematically managing climate risks in development
operations through its individual corporate commitments.
A key aspect of the World Bank Group’s Action Plan on Adaptation and Resilience (2019) is to help countries
shift from addressing adaptation as an incremental cost and isolated investment to systematically incorporating
climate risks and opportunities at every phase of policy planning, investment design, implementation and evaluation
of development outcomes. For all IDA and IBRD operations, climate and disaster risk screening is one of the
mandatory corporate climate commitments. This is supported by the World Bank Group’s Climate and Disaster Risk
Screening Tool which enables all Bank staff to assess short- and long-term climate and disaster risks in operations
and national or sectoral planning processes. This screening tool draws up-to-date and relevant information from
the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, a comprehensive online ‘one-stop shop’ for global,
regional, and country data related to climate change and development.
Recognizing the value of consistent, easy-to-use technical resources for client countries as well as to support
respective internal climate risk assessment and adaptation planning processes, the World Bank Group’s Climate
Change Group has developed this content. Standardizing and pooling expertise facilitates the World Bank Group in
conducting initial assessments of climate risks and opportunities across sectors within a country, within institutional
portfolios across regions, and acts as a global resource for development practitioners.
For developing countries, the climate risk profiles are intended to serve as public goods to facilitate upstream
country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends
and projected changes in key climate parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs,
adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions.
It is my hope that these efforts will spur deepening of long-term risk management in developing countries and our
engagement in supporting climate change adaptation planning at operational levels.
Bernice Van Bronkhorst

Global Director
Climate Change Group (CCG)
The World Bank Group (WBG)
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 1

KEY MESSAGES
• The Solomon Islands are warming and are expected to continue to experience warming trends throughout the
21st century. Future rates of warming are clouded by current models’ inability to simulate very localized changes
but are likely to be in the range of 0.7°C–2.8°C depending on the 21st century rate of global emissions.
• Natural variability between years means short and medium-term rainfall changes are difficult to detect and
project into the future. Further research is urgently required to develop models better suited to modelling the
future climate of Pacific islands.
• The Solomon Islands has significant vulnerability to extreme rainfall events and in the context of uncertainty,
disaster risk reduction is of critical importance.
• Sea-levels are rising faster than the global average. Submergence of the lowest-lying islands has already
begun and threatens coastal communities. In some cases, nature-based adaptation such as coral reef and
mangrove restoration may protect communities, in others hard defences or managed relocation may need
to be considered.
• A very negative outlook is projected for the fisheries sector in the Solomon Islands, with potential reductions in
the maximum catch potential of over 50%. These impacts represent a major threat to dietary health in poorer
communities, national food security, and national income.
• The future of the cash and subsistence agriculture sector is uncertain and requires further study given its
importance to the majority of rural households.
• The Solomon Islands face a large range of hazards which intersect with climate changes. In most cases
fundamental social issues of poverty, inequality, and poorly planned development remain the biggest drivers
of disaster risk.
• However, as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, the Solomon Islands have a priority need for
support to prevent significant damage and loss over the 21st century.
COUNTRY OVERVIEW
T
he Solomon Islands is an archipelago located in the Melanesian region of the Pacific, south-east of
Papua New Guinea. Located in the Coral Triangle, which is considered the “Amazon of the Seas”, the
country’s expansive area covers a unique range of atolls, mountains, and salt-water lagoons, and has
some of the world’s richest marine diversity. In 2020, Solomon Islands had a population of approximately
686,878 people, with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of around USD$2,258, putting it among the
world’s poorest countries. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing are the mainstay of the economy, with agriculture
contributing an estimated 34% of gross domestic product in 2013, compared to 58% from the services sector.
Land degradation and deforestation are serious concerns in the Solomon Islands, as logging is a key source of
revenue for the country but also a significant driver of biodiversity loss. The country is one of the most vulnerable
to climate change, due in large part to the fact that the majority of the population lives within 1.5 kilometre (km)

of the coastline and the islands are regularly exposed to extreme rainfall events.1 In addition, high poverty rates,
excessive dependence on foreign aid, and remoteness make the Solomon Islands particularly vulnerable to
climate variability and change.
The Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology (MECDM) is the coordinator
and central point for climate change engagement with all development partners including the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Solomon Islands National Climate Change Policy (2012–2017)
laid out an initial pathway to integrate climate change policy into the National Development Strategy, and strengthen
capacity to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. The Solomon Islands ratified the Paris
Agreement on September 21, 2016, submitted its Second Nationally Determined Contribution in 2016 and its
Second National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2017.2
Green, Inclusive and Resilient Recovery

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented adverse social and economic impacts.
Further, the pandemic has demonstrated the compounding impacts of adding yet another shock on top of
the multiple challenges that vulnerable populations already face in day-to-day life, with the potential to create
devastating health, social, economic and environmental crises that can leave a deep, long-lasting mark. However,
as governments take urgent action and lay the foundations for their financial, economic, and social recovery, they
have a unique opportunity to create economies that are more sustainable, inclusive and resilient. Short and long-
term recovery efforts should prioritize investments that boost jobs and economic activity; have positive impacts on
human, social and natural capital; protect biodiversity and ecosystems services; boost resilience; and advance the
decarbonization of economies.
1
DIFD (2018). Enabling safe and sustainable marine economies across Commonwealth Small Island Developing States. Commonwealth
Marine Economies Programme. URL: https://projects.noc.ac.uk/cme-programme/about
2
Ministry of Environment, Climate change, Disaster Management, and Meteorology. (2017) Second National Communication of the
Solomon Islands to the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/SI%20SNC%20FINAL_1-1.pdf [accessed 15/11/2019]

This document aims to succinctly summarize the climate risks faced by the Solomon Islands. This includes rapid
onset and long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities,
livelihoods and economies, many of which are already underway. This is a high-level synthesis of existing research
and analyses, focusing on the geographic domain of the Solomon Islands, therefore potentially excluding some
international influences and localized impacts. The core climate projections presented are sourced from the Pacific-
Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program,3,4 as well as the World Bank Group’s Climate
Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), incorporating climate projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This document is primarily meant for WBG staff to inform their climate actions. The
document also aims to direct the reader to many useful sources of secondary data and research.
TABLE 1. Key indicators
Indicator Value Source

Population Undernourished5 13.2% (2017–19) FAO, 2020
National Poverty Rate6 12.7% (2013) ADB, 2020a
Share of Wealth Held by Bottom 20% 7 7% (2012) World Bank, 2021
Net Annual Migration Rate 8 −0.3% (2015–20) UNDESA, 2019
Infant Mortality Rate (Between Age 0 and 1) 9 1.5% (2015–20) UNDESA, 2019
Average Annual Change in Urban Population10 3.9% (2015–20) UNDESA, 2019
Dependents per 100 Independent Adults 11 78 (2020) UNDESA, 2019
Urban Population as % of Total Population 12 24.7% (2020) CIA, 2020
External Debt Ratio to GNI 13 29.1% (2018) ADB, 2020b
Government Expenditure Ratio to GDP 14 29.3% (2019) ADB, 2020b
3
Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2014). Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific:
New Science and Updated Country Reports. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Technical
Report, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia. URL: https://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/
wp-content/uploads/2014/07/PACCSAP_CountryReports2014_WEB_140710.pdf
4
The NextGen projections for the Pacific region under CMIP5 are expected to be available from late 2021. These will provide an update
on the PACCSAP 2014 projections referenced in this profile. The process for providing the new NextGen CMIP6 projections for the
Pacific is still in the planning phase.
5
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO (2020). The state of food security and nutrition in the world. Building Resilience for peace and food
security. FAO. Rome. URL: http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca9692en/
6
ADB (2020a). Basic Statistics 2020. URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/basic-statistics-2020
7
World Bank (2021). Income share held by lowest 20%. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.DST.FRST.20 [accessed 21/10/2021]
8
UNDESA (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
[accessed 15/02/2021]
9
[accessed 15/02/2021]
10
UNDESA (2019). World Urbanization Prospects 2019. URL: https://population.un.org/wup/Download/ [accessed 15/02/2021]
11
[accessed 15/02/2021]
12
CIA (2020). The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Washington DC. URL: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
13
ADB (2020b). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2020, 51st Edition. Asian Development Bank. Manila. URL: https://www.adb.org/
sites/default/files/publication/632971/ki2020.pdf
14
ADB (2020b). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2020, 51st Edition. Asian Development Bank. Manila. URL: https://www.adb.org/
sites/default/files/publication/632971/ki2020.pdf

Due to a combination of political, geographic, and social
factors, the Solomon Islands is recognized as highly FIGURE 1. The ND-GAIN Index score (out of
vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranked 127th 100) summarizes a country’s vulnerability to
out of 182 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index.15 climate change and other global challenges
The ND-GAIN Index ranks 182 countries using a score in combination with its readiness to improve
which calculates a country’s vulnerability to climate resilience. It aims to help businesses and the
change and other global challenges as well as their public sector better prioritize investments for
readiness to improve resilience. The more vulnerable a a more efficient response to the immediate
country is the lower their score, while the more ready global challenges ahead.
50
a country is to improve its resilience the higher it will
45
be. Norway has the highest score and is ranked 1st.
40
Figure 1 is a time-series plot of the ND-GAIN Index 35
showing the Solomon Islands’ progress. 30
Score
25
20
15
10
0
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Solomon Islands
CLIMATOLOGY
Climate Baseline
Overview
Typical of its Pacific location, the Solomon Islands experiences a highly stable climate with average temperatures
fluctuating between 24.5°C and 26.5°C year-round. Average monthly rainfall is also relatively consistent, ranging
from 150–350 millimetres (mm), and usually peaking between January and March (Figure 2). Solomon Islands
are known to experience intensive periods of short-term rainfall, with the record precipitation over a 12-hour period
seen in 2009, totalling 281 mm.2 Humidity is also high, averaging around 80%. Climate in the Solomon Islands
is influenced by a complex set of interconnected large-scale climate phenomenon. Its location places it in what is
termed the ‘warm pool’ between the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and the Intertropical convergence
zone (ITCZ). These features are not static, and their relative location to the Solomon Islands can control wind
direction and rainfall patterns. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also influences inter-annual rainfall patterns
and wave direction.
15
University of Notre Dame (2019). Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. URL: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/

Annual Cycle
FIGURE 2. Average monthly mean, max, and min temperatures and rainfall in Solomon Islands,
1991–202016
36 480
32 400
Precipitation (mm)
28 320
Temperature (°C)
24 240
20 160
16 80
12 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Min-Temperature Mean-Temperature Max-Temperature

Precipitation
Key Trends
Temperature
Monitoring stations across the Solomon Islands point to
increases in average temperature between 1962–2012 A Precautionary Approach
at a rate of around 0.14–0.17°C per decade. Rates of
warming appear to have accelerated since about 1990, Studies published since the last iteration
and the Berkeley Earth Dataset suggests temperatures of the IPCC’s report (AR5), such as Gasser
in 2015–2017 reached around 0.8°C above the long- et al. (2018), have presented evidence which
term average.17 suggests a greater probability that earth will
experience medium and high-end warming
Precipitation scenarios than previously estimated.18 Climate
The Solomon Islands precipitation records suffer from change projections associated with the highest
significant data gaps and no historical trends can be linked emissions pathway (RCP8.5) are presented
to climate change at this time. It has been suggested that here to facilitate decision making which is
El Niño years are associated with below average rainfall robust to these risks.
totals, but this trend is also poorly understood.2
16
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021). Climate Data: Historical. URL: https://climateknowledgeportalworldbank.org/
country/solomon-islands/climate-data-historical
17
Carbon Brief (2018). Mapped: How every part of the world has warmed – and could continue to warm. [26 September 2018].
URL: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-every-part-of-the-world-has-warmed-and-could-continue-to-warm
[accessed 25/10/2019]
18
Gasser, T., Kechiar, M., Ciais, P., Burke, E. J., Kleinen, T., Zhu, D., . . . Obersteiner, M. (2018). Path-dependent reductions in CO2
emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release. Nature Geoscience, 11, 830–835. URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/
s41561-018-0227-0?WT.feed_name=subjects_climate-sciences

Climate Future
Overview
The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) represent four plausible futures, based on the rate of
emissions reduction achieved at the global level. Four RCPs (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were
selected and defined by their total radiative forcing (cumulative measure of GHG emissions from all sources)
pathway and level by 2100. In this analysis, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the low and high emissions pathways, are the
primary focus; RCP2.6 represents a very strong mitigation scenario, whereas RCP8.5 assumes a high-emissions
scenario. For reference, Table 2 provides information on all four RCPs over two-time horizons. In subsequent
analysis RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, the low and high emissions pathways, are the primary focus. RCP2.6 would require
rapid and systemic global action, achieving significant emissions reduction throughout the 21st century. RCP8.5
assumes annual global emissions will continue to increase throughout the 21st century. Climate changes under
each emissions pathway are presented against a reference period of 1986–2005 for all indicators. For more
information, please refer to the RCP Database.
TABLE 2. An overview of temperature change projections (°C) in the Solomon Islands under four
emissions pathways. Projected changes over the 1986–2005 baseline are given for 20-year
periods centred on 2050 and 2090 with the 5th and 95th percentiles provided in brackets.3
Mean Surface Air Temp Max Temp Min Temp

(Annual) (1-in-20 Year Event) (1-in-20 Year Event)
Scenario 2050 2090 2050 2090 2050 2090
RCP2.6 0.8 (0.6, 1.2) 0.7 (0.4, 1.2) 0.7 (0.4, 1) 0.8 (0.4, 1.1) 0.7 (0.4, 1) 0.7 (0.1, 0.9)
RCP4.5 1 (0.7, 1.4) 1.4 (1, 2.1) 0.9 (0.4, 1.3) 1.3 (0.9, 2) 0.9 (0.5, 1.3) 1.3 (0.8, 1.9)
RCP6.0 0.9 (0.7, 1.4) 1.7 (1.3, 2.6) NA NA NA NA
RCP8.5 1.3 (1, 1.9) 2.8 (2, 4) 1.4 (0.9, 2.1) 2.9 (2, 4.1) 1.5 (1, 2.1) 3 (2.2, 4.4)
Model Ensemble
Due to differences in the way global circulation models (GCMs) represent the key physical processes and
interactions within the climate system, projections of future climate conditions can vary widely between different
GCMs. This is particularly the case for rainfall related variables and at sub-national scales. Exploring the spread
of climate model outputs can assist in understanding uncertainties associated with climate models. The range of
projections from 16 GCMs on the indicators of average temperature anomaly and annual precipitation anomaly for
the Solomon Islands under RCP8.5 is shown in Figure 3.
The majority of the models from which outputs are presented in this report are from the CMIP5 round of
standardization and quality assurance. Unfortunately, models of this generation operate at large spatial scales and
are not well equipped to simulate the future climate of small islands. Typically, the changes projected will relate
more to the expected changes over nearby ocean than the island itself. Caution should therefore be applied in
interpreting results. This highlights a major area for future development, a research opportunity, and an urgent
need from the perspective of policy makers planning for climate change.

Temperature
Projections of future temperature change are presented
in three primary formats. Shown in Table 2 are FIGURE 3. ‘Projected average temperature
the changes (anomalies) in maximum and minimum change’ and ‘projected annual rainfall change’
temperatures over the given time period, as well as in the Solomon Islands. Outputs of 16 models
changes in the average temperature. Figures 3 and 4 within the ensemble simulating RCP8.5
display only the average temperature projections. over the period 2080–2099. Models shown
While similar, these three indicators can provide slightly represent the subset of models within the
different information. Monthly and annual average ensemble which provide projections across
temperatures are most commonly used for general all RCPs and therefore are most robust for
estimation of climate change, but the daily maximum comparison.19 Three models are labelled.
and minimum can explain more about how daily life 4.5
might change in a region, affecting key variables 4
gfdl_cm3
Average temperature anomaly (°C)

such as the viability of ecosystems, health impacts, 3.5
productivity of labor, and the yield of crops, which are 3 gfdl_esm2m
often disproportionately influenced by temperature 2.5
2 giss_e2_r
extremes.
1.5
Median,
1 10th and 90th
Across the Pacific, temperatures are projected to Percentiles
0.5
increase between 1.4°C and 3.1°C. As shown in 0
–20% –10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Figure 4, local temperature increases are expected Average annual precipitation anomaly (%)
across Solomon Islands, with warming differences
varying widely across RCPs, especially after 2030. For
instance, as indicated in Table 2, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline, current levels of warming of around
0.7°C are expected to sustain to the end of the century under the lowest (RCP2.6) emissions pathway. The model
ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5) is an average temperature increase
of 1.3°C by the 2050s and 2.8°C by the 2090s.
Future temperature rises in the Solomon Islands are likely to be below the global average – the mean annual
surface air temperature under the highest emissions pathway is projected to reach around 2.8°C by the 2090s,
compared to around 3.7°C globally. This difference may reflect the moderating effect of large amounts of nearby
ocean cover, but considering that ocean cover can also distort model simulations, and the current iteration of global
models does not have the spatial accuracy to reliably capture climate processes over small island states, these
projections should be approached with caution.
Precipitation
When the median estimate of the full model ensemble there is some evidence that annual precipitation may
increase slightly in the Solomon Islands (Figure 5). However, there is much uncertainty around future changes in
average annual precipitation since there is disagreement among models (see Figure 3), and a very wide range in
the ensemble estimate (Figure 5). Challenges to the certainty of the model average rainfall change are affected
by the usual complexity in simulating tropical rainfall, as well as uncertainty in ENSO changes, which especially
influences year-to-year rainfall variability within the region.
19
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021). Climate Data: Projections. URL: https://climateknowledgeportalworldbank.org/
country/solomon-islands/climate-data-projections

Regarding extreme rainfall events, a warmer atmosphere is likely to lead to an increase in their frequency and
intensity. However, the magnitude of such changes in extreme rainfall is not certain due to difficulty capturing key
atmospheric interactions, as well as the general coarse spatial resolution of GCMs.
FIGURE 4. Historical and simulated surface FIGURE 5. Historical and simulated annual
air temperature time series for the region average rainfall time series for the region
surrounding the Solomon Islands. The graph surrounding the Solomon Islands. The graph
shows the anomaly (from the base period shows the anomaly (from the base period
1986–2005) in surface air temperature from 1986–2005) in rainfall from observations
observations (the GISS dataset, in purple), (the GPCP dataset, in purple), and for the
and for the CMIP5 models under the very CMIP5 models under the very high (RCP8.5,
high (RCP8.5, in red) and very low (RCP2.6, in red) and very low (RCP2.6, in blue)
in blue) emissions scenarios. The solid red emissions scenarios. The solid red and blue
and blue lines show the smoothed (20-year lines show the smoothed (20-year running
running average) multi-model mean anomaly average) multi-model mean anomaly in
in surface air temperature, while shading rainfall, while shading represents the spread
represents the spread of model values of model values (5–95th percentile). The
(5–95th percentile). The dashed lines show the dashed lines show the 5–95th percentile of
5–95th percentile of the observed interannual the observed interannual variability for the
variability for the observed period (in black) observed period (in black) and added to the
and added to the projections as a visual guide projections as a visual guide (in red and
(in red and blue). This indicates that future blue). This indicates that future rainfall
surface air temperature could be above or could be above or below the projected long-
below the projected long-term averages term averages due to interannual variability.
due to interannual variability. The ranges of The ranges of projections for a 20-year
projections for a 20-year period centred on period centred on 2090 are shown by the
2090 are shown by the bars on the right for bars on the right for RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5
RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6.3 and 2.6.3
5
30
4
Temperature anomaly relative to
Precipitation anomaly relative to
20
3
1986–2005 (Celsius)
1986–2005 (%)
2
10
0
0
–1 –10
–2
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Year
Year
smoothed GISS RCP8.5 RCP4.5 smoothed GPCP RCP8.5 RCP4.5
GISS RCP6.0 RCP2.6 GPCP RCP6.0 RCP2.6

CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS
Heat Waves
Heat waves are defined as a period of 3 or more
days when the daily temperature remains above FIGURE 6. Projected change in probability of
the 95th percentile. Figure 6 shows the projected Heat Waves in Solomon Islands under RCP8.5
change in heat wave probability under RCP8.5 (compared to 1986–2005)19
(compared to 1986–2005), highlighting the daily 1.25
probability of a sudden heat wave in subsequent 1
time periods. For the Solomon Islands, this probability
Probability
0.75
steadily increases in the long term. This is held
0.5
within the global context in which probabilities are
0.25
expected to increase due to long-term warming.
0
However, it is notable that the tropics are particularly 2020–2039 2040–2059 2060–2079 2080–2099
Period
where systematic warming might lead to the largest
Ensemble median and range
increases in heat wave probability, as a result of
historically low day-to-day and month-to-month
variability.
The Solomon Islands regularly experience high temperatures, with a mean maximum temperature of around 30°C.
Ensemble-based maximum temperatures are projected to rise up to 2.9°C by the 2090s (Table 2). However, the
risk to humans of extreme heat is better measured by also considering humidity, as captured in the Heat Index
measure. Modelling Heat Index highlights a significant increase in the number of days in which uncomfortable
temperature conditions are reached. From a baseline situation in which the key threshold of Heat Index 35°C is rarely
breached, the Solomon Islands can expect multiple breaches per year under all climate change scenarios.19 This
projected change likely signals the potential for extremely uncomfortable conditions, with local impacts and health
repercussions. However, it is noted that further research is required to better understand the implications of climate
change, and its interaction with the ENSO phenomenon, on future temperature regimes and potential heat waves.
An additional factor for consideration is the potential for marine heat waves. Research has shown that “from 1925 to
2016, global average marine heat wave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting
in a 54% increase in annual marine heat wave days globally”.20 While such research has not specifically identified
Solomon Islands under threat, the consequences of these trends may be serious for marine ecosystems in the
region, which are adapted to survive under very stable temperature regimes, as well as the livelihoods dependent
on them.
20
Oliver, E. C., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A., Alexander, L. V., . . . & Holbrook, N. J. (2018). Longer and more
frequent marine heat waves over the past century. Nature communications, 9(1), 1324. URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/
articles/PMC5893591/

Drought
Drought can be expressed in many ways, from looking at simple precipitation deficits to complex estimates of
remaining soil moisture. Research done for the report on “Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western
Tropical Pacific 2014” defines projected changes in the frequency and duration of mild, moderate, severe and extreme
meteorological droughts using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI).3 This index is based solely on rainfall (i.e.
periods of low rainfall are classified as drought), and does not take into account factors such as evapotranspiration
or soil moisture content. It is noted that the SPI is commonly used in many regions including the Pacific due to the
relative simplicity with which it is calculated, as well as its relevance across temporal and spatial scales.3 For the
Solomon Islands, it is likely that the percentage of time spent in drought may decrease, and this is generally shown
across emissions scenarios.3 The most extreme droughts are projected to maintain their length and frequency, while
lower intensity events are expected to reduce in frequency. However, it should be noted that complex processes
relating to rainfall projections, including the limited consensus of future ENSO influence for the region, hinder the
confidence of these projections of drought frequency and duration, as well as magnitude of change.3
Another lens through which to view drought risk is the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI),
which is computed over 12-month periods and captures the cumulative balance between gain and loss of water
across the interannual time scale by incorporating
both precipitation input variations as well as changes
in the loss of water through evapotranspiration. It is
FIGURE 7. Projected change in Annual Mean
widely used today as a global measure for drought
Drought Index for Solomon Islands, under
monitoring over various cumulative time intervals.
RCP8.519
Figure 7 looks at the projected changes in the
2
annual mean drought index for Solomon Islands in
subsequent time periods, under RCP 8.5, compared
1
to 1986–2005. Since positive values indicate
SPEI
positive water balance (or wet) conditions and 0

negative values indicate negative water balance
(or dry) conditions, the ensemble’s best estimate –1
2020–2039 2040–2059 2060–2079 2080–2099
is of more wet future conditions. However, again, Period
overall confidence is very low and further research Ensemble median and range
is required.
Flood and Cyclones

The Solomon Islands experiences significant risk driven by extreme rainfall, with notable events in 2008 and 2010
involving loss of life and damage to infrastructure and livelihoods.2 Rare precipitation events are often referred
to as events of a certain return level, and the 5-day cumulative rainfall indicator focuses on the maximum rainfall
amount over any 5-day period that can be expected once in an average 25-year period. Changes in this indicator
may have potentially significant impacts on infrastructure and endanger life and property through direct physical
effects and perhaps through water quality issues. As such, any significant changes in their magnitudes would need
to be understood.

The boxplot in Figure 8 shows recorded 5-Day
Cumulative Rainfall for 1986–2005 and projected FIGURE 8. 5-day precipitation – historical and
5-Day Cumulative Rainfall 25-yr Return Level projected scenarios of 25-year return level in
by 2050 under all RCPs of CIMP5 ensemble Solomon Islands for period 2040–205919
modelling for the Solomon Islands. From this, 1200
it is noted that compared to the historical value, 1000

median ensemble projections seem to generally
800
be similar.
mm
600
Looking at further future projections, Figure 9 400
highlights the projected change in annual maximum 200
5-day rainfall of a 25-year return level (under 0

RCP8.5), projected ensemble median changes Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
seem to be close to 0 initially then slightly increase

closer to 2100, but the range of values is quite
broad and needs to be further contextualised and
FIGURE 9. Projected change in annual maximum
understood.
5-day rainfall (25-year return level) for Solomon
Islands, under RCP8.519
Tropical cyclones have historically affected the
600
Solomon Islands, mainly between November and
April.3 Tropical cyclones typically pass through the 400
Rainfall (mm)
Solomon Islands’ exclusive economic zone at a

200
rate of around 21 cyclones per decade. Around
27% are typically considered severe events (i.e. 0
Category 3 or higher). ENSO influences cyclone

–200
frequency – there is a higher frequency of cyclones 2020–2039 2040–2059 2060–2079 2080–2099
Period
during El Niño years (39 per decade), but a lower
Ensemble median and range
frequency of extreme rainfall events.2 Exposure to
cyclones is greatest in the South eastern Solomon
Islands of Makira, Ulawa, Rennell, and Bellona.
For the Solomon Islands, the general projection is for a decrease in cyclone genesis (formation) frequency, with
medium confidence, consistent with a general global projection for decreased cyclone frequency by 2100.3 This
decrease in frequency is expected in the range of 6%–35%. However, there is also evidence that the maximum
wind speed of cyclones may increase – and all changes projected should be seen in the context of uncertainty
around future ENSO, which is not well understood for the region.3
According to available information compiled by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)
ThinkHazard! web-based tool, the risk of cyclone (hurricane/typhoon) hazard is classified as high in the Solomon
Islands.21 This means that there is more than a 20% chance of potentially-damaging wind speeds for the country
in the next 10 years. While climate change is expected to interact with cyclone hazard in complex ways which are
21
GFDRR (2016). ThinkHazard! Profile for Solomon Islands. URL: http://thinkhazard.org/ [accessed 31/10/2019]

currently poorly understood, known additional risks include the action of sea-level rise to enhance the damage
caused by cyclone-induced storm surges, and the possibility of increased wind speed and precipitation intensity.
Further research is required to better understand potential changes in cyclone seasonality and routes, and the
potential for cyclone hazards to be experienced in unprecedented locations.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Natural Resources
Water
The Solomon Islands have faced major challenges extending access to at least a basic water supply to its population.
As of 2015 access had only reached 64% of the population.22 Significant institutional challenges have hindered
progress in this area.23 The Solomon Islands is also exposed to diverse water-related hazards, such as extreme
rainfall, coastal flooding (including tsunami and storm surge), fluvial and flash flooding. Again, levels of risk have
historically been elevated by institutional challenges in disaster management.24 Projections suggest the Solomon
Islands faces particularly significant fresh water stress by 2030. This stress derives primarily from expected rates
of population growth.25
The uncertainty in future climate change-driven impacts on the hydrological regime of the Solomon Islands
represents a major block to effective planning and disaster risk reduction. The challenge is also compounded
by the diversity of the different water-related threats faced across different islands. Extreme rainfall is an almost
universal pressure, but at the same time the Solomon Islands is home to low-lying river delta regions vulnerable to
inundation and saline intrusions, low-lying atolls with groundwater supplies vulnerable to saltwater contamination,
and rivers which threaten fluvial flooding. Food security concerns have also been raised by recent incidences of
drought which impacted on crop productivity.26 Considering also remoteness, poverty and limited government
resource, the adaptation challenge is significant, and studies have shown that there is a risk of ‘maladaptation’ if a
systems approach is not taken to planning a response.27
22
WaterAid (2018). The Water Gap – The State of the World’s Water 2018. URL: https://washmatters.wateraid.org/sites/g/files/
jkxoof256/files/The%20Water%20Gap%20State%20of%20Water%20report%20lr%20pages.pdf
23
Hadwen, W. L., Powell, B., MacDonald, M. C., Elliott, M., Chan, T., Gernjak, W., & Aalbersberg, W. G. L. (2015). Putting WASH in the
water cycle: climate change, water resources and the future of water, sanitation and hygiene challenges in Pacific Island Countries.
Journal of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for Development, 5(2), 183–191. URL: https://waterinstitute.unc.edu/publication/putting-
wash-in-the-water-cycle/
24
Weir, T., & Virani, Z. (2011). Three linked risks for development in the Pacific Islands: Climate change, disasters and conflict. Climate
and Development, 3(3), 193–208. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2011.603193
25
Karnauskas, K. B., Schleussner, C.-F., Donnelly, J. P., & Anchukaitis, K. J. (2018). Freshwater stress on small island developing states:
population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2°C. Regional Environmental Change. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/
10.1007%2Fs10113-018-1331-9
26
ReliefWeb (2017). Pacific: Drought - 2015–2017. URL: https://reliefweb.int/disaster/dr-2015-000127-fji [accessed: 28/11/2019]
27
Fazey, I., Pettorelli, N., Kenter, J., Wagatora, D., & Schuett, D. (2011). Maladaptive trajectories of change in Makira, Solomon Islands.
Global Environmental Change, 21(4), 1275–1289. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.07.006

The Coastal Zone
According to its Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, the Solomon Islands are in an area that has
experienced above average rates of sea-level rise in recent decades. Estimates show rises of an average of
8–10 mm/year for the tropical western Pacific between 1993 and 2010. This compares to a global average
rate of around 3.4 mm/yr. This has reportedly impacted on communities inhabiting some remote islands (Ontong
Java atoll and the outer Reef Islands). Localized sea-level rise can in fact be an extremely complex phenomenon
to measure and model, notably due to the influence of large scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Some
studies have suggested that the western Pacific has been experiencing above average rates of sea-level rise,
but the extent to which this is attributable to human-driven climate change and/or likely to continue requires
further research.28
Sea-level rise threatens significant physical changes to coastal zones around the world. Global mean sea-level rise
was estimated in the range of 0.44–0.74 meters (m) by the end of the 21st century by the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report,29 but some studies published more recently have highlighted the potential for greater rises (Table 3).
Studies have shown that rises even at the lower end of these projections threaten the homes and livelihoods of
communities in the Solomon Islands’ coastal areas.30
TABLE 3. Estimates of global mean sea-level rise by rate and total rise compared to 1986–2005
including likely range shown in brackets, data from Chapter 13 of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report with upper-end estimates based on higher levels of Antarctic ice-sheet loss from Le Bars
et al. (2017).31
Rate of Global Mean Sea-Level Global Mean Sea-Level Rise in

Scenario Rise in 2100 2100 Compared to 1986–2005
RCP2.6 4.4 mm/yr (2.0–6.8) 0.44 m (0.28–0.61)
RCP4.5 6.1 mm/yr (3.5–8.8) 0.53 m (0.36–0.71)
RCP6.0 7.4 mm/yr (4.7–10.3) 0.55 m (0.38–0.73)
RCP8.5 11.2 mm/yr (7.5–15.7) 0.74 m (0.52–0.98)
Estimate inclusive of high-end Antarctic ice-sheet loss 1.84 m (0.98–2.47)
28
Peyser, C. E., Yin, J., Landerer, F. W., & Cole, J. E. (2016). Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability.
Geophysical Research Letters, 43(16), 8662–8669. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069401
29
Church, J. a., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., . . . Unnikrishnan, A. S. (2013). Sea level change.
In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1137–1216). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge
University Press. URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf
30
Albert, S., Abernethy, K., Gibbes, B., Grinham, A., Tooler, N., & Aswani, S. (2013). Cost-Effective Methods for Accurate Determination of
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability: A Solomon Islands Example. Weather, Climate, and Society, 5(4), 285–292. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/
WCAS-D-13-00010.1
31
Le Bars, D., Drijhout, S., de Vries, H. (2017). A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass
loss. Environmental Research Letters: 12:4. URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512

Sea-level rise is not just a threat due to long-term encroachment on coastal areas, but also due to the projected
increase in the frequency of extreme sea-level events.32 The return period of exceptionally high sea-levels, driven
by climate circulations, is expected to reduce and low-lying Pacific island nations are particularly at risk.33 Studies
have shown that the extent of wave-driven flooding is impacted by coral reef height and health, highlighting the
importance of coral conservation.34
The sea-level rise (Figure 10) threat represents both a slow-onset and rapid-onset hazard. In addition to natural
fluctuations in wave height which can result in inundation, GFDRR’s ThinkHazard! tool highlights a high risk of
tsunamis in the Solomon Islands. This indicates there is more than 20% chance of the occurrence of a potentially-
damaging tsunami in the next 50 years17 and highlighting the critical need for adaptation action. The Solomon
Islands are located near to the Pacific “ring of fire” where regular earthquake increase the frequency of such
hazards. Studies focused on learning from past tsunami events in the Solomon Islands have emphasised the
importance of reducing social vulnerability, improving disaster risk reduction and readiness for such events, and
having adequate formal disaster response protocols in place.35 Processes such as the loss of naturally occurring
mangroves have been identified as amplifying disaster risk in regions of the Solomon Islands.36
32
Widlansky, M. J., Timmermann, A., & Cai, W. (2015). Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific. Science Advances, 1(8).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500560
33
Vitousek, S., Barnard, P. L., Fletcher, C. H., Frazer, N., Erikson, L., & Storlazzi, C. D. (2017). Doubling of coastal flooding frequency
within decades due to sea-level rise. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 1399. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7
34
Beetham, E., Kench, P. S., & Popinet, S. (2017). Future Reef Growth Can Mitigate Physical Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Atoll Islands.
Earth’s Future, 5(10), 1002–1014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000589
35
Weber, E. (2014). Of tsunamis and climate change: The need to resettle. In L. Andrianos, J.-W. Sneep, G. Kerber, & R. Attfield (Eds.),
Sustainable Alternatives for Poverty Reduction and Eco-Justice (pp. 192–208). Cambridge Scholars Publishing. URL: http://repository.
usp.ac.fj/7830/
36
PASAP (2012). Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands. Pacific Adaptation Strategy
Assistance Program. URL: http://pubs.iclarm.net/resource_centre/WF_3561.pdf

FIGURE 10. (a) The observed tide-gauge records of relative sea-level (since the late 1970s) are
indicated in purple, and the satellite record (since 1993) in green. The gridded (reconstructed) sea
level data at the Solomon Islands (since 1950) is shown in black. Multi-model mean projections
from 1995–2100 are given for the RCP8.5 (red solid line) and RCP2.6 emissions scenarios
(blue solid line), with the 5–95% uncertainty range shown by the red and blue shaded regions. The
ranges of projections for four emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) by 2100 are also shown
by the bars on the right. The dashed lines are an estimate of interannual variability in sea level
(5–95% uncertainty range about the projections) and indicate that individual monthly averages
of sea level can be above or below longer-term averages. (b) The regional distribution of projected
sea level rise under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005. Mean
projected changes are indicated by the shading, and the estimated uncertainty in the projections
is indicated by the contours (in cm).3
(a) (b) RCP4.5: 2090
120
110 Solomon Islands
100 10ºN
Reconstruction
Sea level relative to 1986–2005 (cm)
90 Satellite altimeter
Tide gauges (3)
80 0º
70 Projections
60 RCP8.5
10º
50 RCP6.0
40 RCP4.5
30 RCP2.6 20ºS
20
10 130°E 140° 150° 160° 170° 180° 170° 160° 150°W
0
–10
41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
–20 cm
–30
1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Studies have highlighted the vulnerability of livelihoods in coastal areas of the Solomon Islands. For example, the
Lungga Delta near Honiara is an important space for agricultural production, but already experiences impacts linked
with sea-level rise and associated saline intrusion.37 There is also concern for livelihoods on low-lying atoll islets,
which are not only more vulnerable to sea level rise than the higher volcanic islands. In these areas sea level rise
and related effects not only threaten physical resources and infrastructure, but also cultural norms, traditions and
language, as well as ancestral lands.
Coral Reefs and Fisheries

The Solomon Islands has some of the world’s richest marine diversity, including more than 75% all known coral
species, 30% of the world’s coral reefs, and 40% of coral reef fish species.38 These reefs face a very serious
37
Nunn, P. D. (2013). The end of the Pacific? Effects of sea level rise on Pacific Island livelihoods. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography,
34(2), 143–171. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjtg.12021
38
Permanent Mission of Solomon Islands to the United Nation (2009). Solomon Islands National Submission on Climate Change and
Possible Security Implications. Submission to the 64th Session of the UN General Assembly. URL: https://sustainabledevelopment.
un.org/content/dsd/resources/res_pdfs/ga-64/cc-inputs/Solomon_Island_CCIS.pdf

climate change threat. Calcium carbonite is used for the external skeletons of multiple marine organisms – for
instance, plankton, coral reefs, and shell-fish. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are understood to lead to
reduced levels of calcium carbonite saturation on the ocean’s service via an increase in ocean acidification and by
decreasing carbonite ion concentrations. As a result, there are serious concerns that if carbonite minerals, such as
aragonite, become under saturated, it could undermine current ocean ecosystems.39
Figure 11 shows that the projected aragonite

saturation state under three emission scenarios for FIGURE 11. Projected changes in aragonite
the Solomon Islands. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the saturation state in the Solomon Islands from
saturation state is expected to decrease below the CMIP5 models under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Shown
threshold needed to sustain healthy coral reefs are the median values (solid lines), the interquartile
as early as 2030. While there is a high degree of range (dashed lines), and 5% and 95% percentiles
confidence of the increased risk of coral bleaching (light shading). The horizontal line represents
due to a warmer ocean, there is only medium the threshold at which transition to marginal
confidence in the ranges of estimates of projected conditions for coral reef health typically occurs.3
changes in severe coral bleaching risk for the
4.5
Solomon Islands. This is due to limited confidence
in the sea surface temperature change projections 4
as well as complexities of understanding reef-

Arag Sat. State
3.5
scale changes.3 As well, such potential changes Horizon
3
may not include other reef stressors, such as local
Observations
environmental concerns, and impacts of ocean 2.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
acidification, which are all also likely to affect the 2 RCP 8.5
entire marine ecosystem impact the key ecosystem 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
services provided by reefs. Year
The fishing sector is a key component of the

economy. Estimates of its contribution to GDP
range from 3%–5%, but these estimates understate its importance as a source of subsistence to communities.40
Consumption is estimated at around 40 kg per capita per year, and higher in land-poor areas, highlighting its
critical importance providing dietary protein.41 Tuna catches by the domestic fleet alone were valued at 5% of
GDP in 2014. Tuna worth approximately 5–6 times this value is caught in the Solomon Islands’ national waters
by foreign fishing fleets. These generally pay licence fees and these constituted around 7% of government
income in 2014.42
39
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., . . . & Key, R. M. (2005). Anthropogenic ocean acidification over
the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature, 437(7059), 681. DOI: 10.1038/nature04095
40
FAO (2018). Fishery and Aquaculture profiles: Solomon Islands. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. URL: http://
www.fao.org/fishery/facp/SLB/en [accessed: 27/11/2019]
41
FAO (2018). Role of fish in food security in selected Pacific Island Countries. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
policy brief No. 2 May 2018. URL: http://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/I9956EN/
42
Gillett, R. (2016). Fisheries in the economies of Pacific Island countries and territories. Chapter 32: Government Revenues from Fisheries.
Pacific Community/FFA/Australian Aid. URL: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/27511/pacific-fisheries.pdf

Climate change and human resource exploitation represent a dual threat to fisheries. Species living in and around
coral reefs, either permanently or in their juvenile period, and particularly larger species, face an extinction threat.43
As a result of changes in temperature, dissolved oxygen, and acidity, the maximum catch potential of currently
resident species has been forecast to decline significantly in the Solomon Islands, potentially by over 50%.44
Additionally, there is a significant threat to deep sea fisheries within Solomon Islands’ exclusive economic zone.
The migration range of tuna, for example, is expected to shift eastward.45 Studies have suggested that without
adaptation the Solomon Islands faces a fish catch deficit which could impact on the dietary health of the population,
but also that adaptation strategies sufficient to mitigate this deficit are feasible.46 As a result there have been
strong calls for support to communities to identify suitable responses and financing mechanisms, and to adapt to
the changing marine environment.47
Forests and Island Ecology

The Solomon Islands hold unique and biodiverse terrestrial and marine habitats.48 However, while the majority
of the land surface remains covered by tropical rainforest, increasing human pressure, particularly from logging,
threatens ecosystem integrity.49 Indeed, island biodiversity faces a variety of human pressures.50 Forestry is a
particularly critical industry in the Solomon Islands contributing around one sixth of government income. Output has
been estimated to be as much as seven times the sustainable yield and is understood to contribute significantly to
income inequality.51
Climate change and variability may compound these pressures. Sea-level rise, for instance, not only threatens
humans residing on Pacific islands, but also their unique ecosystem functions and ecology. Past seismic activity
provides insights into the potential long-term impacts of sea-level rise. An earthquake in 2007 which induced
rapid subsidence and hence ‘relative’ sea-level rise, highlighted the vulnerability of the Solomon Islands’ mangrove
43
Mellin, C., Mouillot, D., Kulbicki, M., McClanahan, T. R., Vigliola, L., Bradshaw, C. J. A., . . . Caley, M. J. (2016). Humans and seasonal
climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges. Nature Communications, 7(1), 10491. DOI: https://doi.org/
10.1038/ncomms10491
44
Asch, R. G., Cheung, W. W. L., & Reygondeau, G. (2018). Future marine ecosystem drivers, biodiversity, and fisheries maximum catch
potential in Pacific Island countries and territories under climate change. Marine Policy, 88, 285–294. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.
com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X17301409?via%3Dihub
45
Bell, J., Taylor, M., Amos, M., and Andrew, N. (2016). Climate change and Pacific Island food systems. CCAFS and CTA. Copenhagen,
Denmark and Wageningen, the Netherlands. URL: https://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/publications/climate-change-and-pacific-island-
food-systems
46
Dey, M. M., Gosh, K., Valmonte-Santos, R., Rosegrant, M. W., & Chen, O. L. (2016). Economic impact of climate change and climate
change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Solomon Islands: Implication for food security. Marine Policy, 67, 171–178.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.01.004
47
Hanich, Q., Wabnitz, C. C. C., Ota, Y., Amos, M., Donato-Hunt, C., & Hunt, A. (2018). Small-scale fisheries under climate change in
the Pacific Islands region. Marine Policy, 88, 279–284. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.11.011
48
Weeks, B. C., Diamond, J., Sweet, P. R., Smith, C., Scoville, G., Zinghite, T., & Filardi, C. E. (2017). New Behavioral, Ecological, and
Biogeographic Data On the Montane Avifauna of Kolombangara, Solomon Islands. The Wilson Journal of Ornithology, 129(4),
676–700. URL: https://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=US201800251493
49
Bosma, W., Suti, S., & Deeks, P. (2017). Beekeeping as Pro-forest Income Diversification in Solomon Islands. In W. Leal Filho (Ed.),
Climate Change Adaptation in Pacific Countries: Fostering Resilience and Improving the Quality of Life. CH. 23. (pp. 371–387).
Springer International Publishing. URL: https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/beekeeping-as-pro-forest-income-diversification-
in-solomon-islan/12050258
50
Jupiter, S., Mangubhai, S., & Kingsford, R. T. (2014). Conservation of Biodiversity in the Pacific Islands of Oceania: Challenges and
Opportunities. Pacific Conservation Biology, 20(2), 206–220. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1071/PC140206
51
Gibson, J. (2018). Forest Loss and Economic Inequality in the Solomon Islands: Using Small-Area Estimation to Link Environmental
Change to Welfare Outcomes. Ecological Economics, 148, 66–76. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.02.012

forests (and hence coastal economies) to climate change, with a 35% decline in mangrove forest cover resulting
from relative sea-level rise in the range of 30cm–70 cm in the affected area.52 Research has also shown that
inundation of low-lying islands has the potential to remove important refuges for migrating sea birds.53
As climate changes so the suitable range for species to inhabit shifts, typically either upslope or away from the
equator. In the Island environment the capacity for species to shift is extremely limited and as such loss and
extinction are becoming increasingly likely. Major concerns have been raised for the terrestrial ecology of low lying
Pacific islands, for example endemic lizards, which may become trapped in a shrinking habitat.54 Research has also
highlighted the risks to biodiversity in the Pacific through study of tree richness in New Caledonia, where the range
sizes of 87–96% of species was projected to decline, typically by 52%–84%.55 Compounding the direct impacts
of climate change on species’ viable ranges, concerns have also been raised by research highlighting the potential
for climate change to drive introduction of new weeds, pests, and diseases in Pacific habitats which threaten the
productivity of forests and other ecosystems.56 Further research is needed to better constrain the potential impacts
of climate change on island ecology, and the potential knock-on effects on ecosystem service provision. From a
least-regrets perspective, the risks of climate change only increase the importance of reducing human development
impacts which currently undermine the resilience of island ecosystems.
Economic Sectors
Agriculture and Food
The Solomon Islands has a very significant agricultural sector, accounting for an estimated 34% of GDP in 2017,
and a larger proportion of employment. Reportedly, agriculture sustains 85% of the country’s rural economy57
and 96% of rural households grow at least some of their own food.58 Women play a significant role in household
production and selling of produce. Notably crops include root crops, tubers, and vegetables.
52
Albert, S., Saunders, M. I., Roelfsema, C. M., Leon, J. X., Johnstone, E., Mackenzie, J. R., . . . Woodroffe, C. D. (2017). Winners and
losers as mangrove, coral and seagrass ecosystems respond to sea-level rise in Solomon Islands. Environmental Research Letters,
12(9), 94009. URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7e68/pdf
53
Reynolds, M. H., Courtot, K. N., Berkowitz, P., Storlazzi, C. D., Moore, J., & Flint, E. (2015). Will the Effects of Sea-Level Rise Create
Ecological Traps for Pacific Island Seabirds? PLOS ONE, 10(9), 1–23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136773
54
Taylor, S., & Kumar, L. (2016). Global Climate Change Impacts on Pacific Islands Terrestrial Biodiversity: A Review. Tropical
Conservation Science, 9(1), 203–223.
55
Pouteau, R., & Birnbaum, P. (2016). Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in
New Caledonia. Biological Conservation, 201, 111–119. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/194008291600900111
56
Taylor, S., & Kumar, L. (2016). Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is
behaving invasively in the Pacific region? Ecology and Evolution, 6(3), 742–754. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1915
57
Western Sydney University (2018). Food Security in Solomon Islands: A Survey of Honiara Central Market. Preliminary report,
April 2018. HADRI/Western Sydney University. URL: https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/1465453/
Food_Security_in_Solomon_Islands.pdf
58
FAO (2019). Country Gender Assessment of Agriculture and the rural sector in the Solomon Islands. The Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations and the Pacific Community. URL: http://www.fao.org/3/ca6858en/CA6858EN.pdf

Climate change could influence food production via direct and indirect effects on crop growth processes. Direct
effects include alterations to carbon dioxide availability, precipitation and temperatures. Indirect effects include
through impacts on water resource availability and seasonality, soil organic matter transformation, soil erosion,
changes in pest and disease profiles, the arrival of invasive species, and decline in arable areas due to the submergence
of coastal lands. On an international level, these impacts are expected to damage key staple crop yields, even on
lower emissions pathways. Tebaldi and Lobell (2018) estimate 5% and 6% declines in global wheat and maize
yields respectively even if the Paris Climate Agreement is met and warming is limited to 1.5°C.59 Shifts in the optimal
and viable spatial ranges of certain crops are also inevitable, though the extent and speed of those shifts remains
dependent on the emissions pathway. Climate change has been identified as a major threat to food supply and
security in the South Pacific. Issues such as low incomes, poor routes of connectivity and access, and dependence
on imports are highlighted as key vulnerabilities.60
Research into the future productivity of specific crops in the Solomon Islands is relatively limited but it is likely that
optimal crop ranges will shift, and productivity levels change. The climate change impacts on cocoa production
have been explored and are broadly negative, particularly under higher emissions pathways and later in the century.
Cocoa production typically declines when maximum daily temperature surpasses 32°C, a phenomenon which could
occur regularly under the most extreme projections.61 Issues related to extreme rainfall have been qualitatively
reported in other crops, including root crops, fruit trees, and vegetables.62 Further research is urgently required first
to constrain climate projections, and second to model future crop productivity rates.
The Solomon Islands Second National Communication details key climate vulnerabilities by region. A common issue
is the degradation of soils. Soil health intersects with both land management practices and climate through the impact
of extreme rainfall events. Extended periods of drought, followed by extreme rainfall, can contribute to significant soil
erosion and represents a climate threat. However, impacts can be significantly mitigated through ecological restoration
and land stewardship. Studies have thus far emphasised that pressures such as intensification, migration, and
logging represent the greatest threat to traditional farming systems in the Solomon Islands, but monitoring will be
important as climate changes intensify.63 An issue identified where adaptive capacity is concerned is the common
lack of diversified income sources for smallholders, increasing disaster risk when climate hazards strike.2
59
Tebaldi, C., & Lobell, D. (2018). Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios. Environmental
Research Letters: 13: 065001. URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaba48
60
Barnett, J. (2011). Dangerous climate change in the Pacific Islands: food production and food security. Regional Environmental Change,
11(1), 229–237. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-010-0160-2
61
SIMS, SPREP and CSIRO (2018). A preliminary case study assessment of climate change impacts and risks for cocoa farming in
Guadalcanal Plain, Solomon Islands. CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia. URL: https://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/wp-content/
uploads/2018/04/Dev-CC-info-SI-case-study-report-16pp-WEB.pdf
62
Viliamu, I., Maeke, J., Holland, E., Wairiu, M., and Naidu, S. (2015). Farming Adaptations to the Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme
Events in Pacific Island Countries: Case Study of Bellona Atoll, Solomon Islands. In Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in
Small Island Developing States, ed. Wayne G. Ganpat and Wendy-Ann P. Isaac, 166–194. URL: https://www.igi-global.com/gateway/
chapter/118024
63
Mertz, O. L. E., Birch-Thomsen, T., Elberling, B. O., Rothausen, S., Bruun, T. B., Reenberg, A., . . . Breuning-Madsen, H. (2012). Changes
in shifting cultivation systems on small Pacific islands. The Geographical Journal, 178(2), 175–187. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/
23263251?seq=1

Another, and perhaps lesser appreciated, influence of climate change on agricultural production is through its
impact on the health and productivity of the labor force. Dunne et al. (2013) suggest that global labor productivity
during peak months has already dropped by 10% as a result of warming, and that a decline of up to 20% might
be expected by the 2050s under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5).64 The Solomon Islands currently
operates an agricultural system highly dependent on physical labor inputs and hence is potentially vulnerable to
higher temperatures without adaptation.65 In combination, it is highly likely that the above processes will have a
considerable impact on national food consumption patterns both through direct impacts on internal agricultural
operations, and through impacts on the global supply chain.
Tourism
Compared with other Pacific nations tourism makes a modest contribution to the economy of the Solomon Islands,
estimated at around 4.3% of GDP in 2017. However, the Government has ambitions to significantly increase its
relative contribution to the economy, as set out in its 2015–2019 National Tourism Development Strategy.66 In one
critical review of the literature examining the dynamics between climate change and tourism, there appeared to
be multiple indications that the tourism sectors of small island states, such as the Solomon Islands, are particularly
vulnerable to climate change.67 In the long-term, the dual threats of rising sea levels and coastal erosion could reduce
the quantity and quality of available beach space without significant adaptation measures and could therefore reduce
the attractiveness of the country as a tourist destination. Another area of vulnerability is the valuable recreational
diving sector, which is threatened by environmental degradation, loss of reeds, and coastal erosion.68
In addition to direct physical impacts, climate change may affect the tourism sector in the Solomon Islands through
global efforts to mitigate climate change. One possible manifestation is in the increased cost of international
flights. One study estimated that while the cost of achieving an emissions-target compatible tourism sector may be
proportionately low (3.6%). Nonetheless the necessary increase in trip costs (estimated at $11 when averaging
across every global trip but potentially higher on a long-haul destination such as the Solomon Islands) may reduce
the Solomon Islands’ attractiveness as a tourist destination.69 Further research is required to better constrain the
suite of potential climate change impacts on the sector.
64
Dunne, J. P., Stouffer, R. J., & John, J. G. (2013). Reductions in labor capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Nature
Climate Change, 3(6), 563–566. URL: http://www.precaution.org/lib/noaa_reductions_in_labour_capacity_2013.pdf
65
Lebot, V., & Siméoni, P. (2015). Community Food Security: Resilience and Vulnerability in Vanuatu. Human Ecology, 43(6), 827–842.
URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10745-015-9796-3
66
Solomon Islands (2015). The Solomon Islands National Tourism Development Strategy. URL: http://macbio-pacific.info/wp-content/
uploads/2017/08/National-Tourism-Strategy-2015.pdf
67
Scott, D., Gössling, S., & Hall, C. M. (2012). International tourism and climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,
3(3), 213–232. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.165
68
Klint, L. M., Jiang, M., Law, A., Delacy, T., Filep, S., Calgaro, E., . . . Harrison, D. (2012). Dive tourism in Luganville, Vanuatu: Shocks,
stressors, and vulnerability to climate change. Tourism in Marine Environments, 8(1–2), 91–109. URL: https://researchers.mq.edu.au/
en/publications/dive-tourism-in-luganville-vanuatu-shocks-stressors-and-vulnerabi
69
Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C. M., & Peeters, P. (2016). Can tourism be part of the decarbonized global economy? The costs and
risks of alternate carbon reduction policy pathways. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 24(1), 52–72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/
09669582.2015.1107080

As with other small islands, tourism sector development should be reconciled with concerns for environmental
sustainability, especially in the face of climate change impacts.70 The dual threats of rising sea levels and coastal
erosion could reduce the quantity and quality of available beach space and, without significant adaptation measures,
could therefore reduce the attractiveness of the country as a tourist destination. As well, potential losses to land
area due to sea level rise would need to be considered for the building of desirable beachfront properly locations.
However, rates of coastal erosion are not currently measured and there is limited understanding of how to confront
beach loss. Challenges to already-limited freshwater could become a problem in times of drought conditions, and
storm threats could hinder the sun, sea, sand experience and require sufficient disaster preparedness actions.
Communities
Poverty, Inequality and Vulnerability to Climate-Related Disaster
Solomon Islands experiences acute economic challenges. This relates to a combination of issues including weak
infrastructure, income inequality,71 heavy reliance on agriculture for income revenue as well as the country’s remote
location, which makes it costly to access established markets such as in Europe, Asia or the USA.72 The Solomon
Islands has very low levels of urbanisation compared to most other nations, with only an estimated 23.7% of the
population living in cities as of 2018 (Table 1). In 2018, seven out of 10 Solomon Islanders were under 30 years
old,73 making it the second youngest population in the Oceania region. There is severe unemployment rate amongst
the youth; in 2018, around 35% of the youth were unemployed.69
Study into the vulnerability of Solomon Islanders is very limited. One comprehensive study by UNDP assessing the
region around Honiara highlights that many areas face a nexus of hazard exposure and social vulnerability, particularly
in the vicinity of water courses and lower-lying areas of coast.74 Extreme rainfall is the most commonly reported
driver of disaster events, sometimes intersecting with high sea-levels to amplify impacts at the coast. A wide variety
of adaptation needs, ranging from infrastructural solutions to disaster preparedness and strengthening of land-use
planning protocols.70
Many of the climate changes projected are likely to disproportionately affect the poorest groups in society. For
instance, heavy manual labor jobs are commonly among the lowest paid whilst also being most at risk of productivity
losses due to heat stress.75 Poorer businesses are least able to afford air conditioning, an increasing need given
projected increase in the need for air conditioning with temperature increases. Poorer farmers and communities
are least able to afford local water storage, irrigation infrastructure, and technologies for adaptation.
70
Diedrich, A., & Aswani, S. (2016). Exploring the potential impacts of tourism development on social and ecological change in the
Solomon Islands. Ambio, 45(7), 808–818. DOI: 10.1007/s13280-016-0781-x
71
United Nations in the Pacific (2017). United Nations Pacific Strategy 2018–2022: A Multi-country sustainable development
framework in the Pacific region. URL: https://www.unicef.org/about/execboard/files/Final_UNPS_2018-2022_Pacific.pdf
72
The Borgen Project (2017 ). Four Cases of Poverty in Solomon Islands. URL: https://borgenproject.org/causes-of-poverty-in-the-
solomon-islands/
73
UNDP (2018). Solomon Islands Youth Status Report 2018. URL: https://www.undp.org/content/dam/fiji/docs/UNDP-SOI-Youth-
Status-Report-2018.pdf.
74
UNDP (2014). Cities and Climate Change Initiative: Honiara Solomon Islands Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. United Nations
Human Settlement Programme. URL: https://unhabitat.org/honiara-solomon-islands-climate-change-vulnerability-assessment
75
Kjellstrom, T., Briggs, D., Freyberg, C., Lemke, B., Otto, M., Hyatt, O. (2016). Heat, human performance, and occupational health:
A key issue for the assessment of global climate change impacts. Annual Review of Public Health: 37: 97–112. URL: https://
www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740

Gender
An increasing body of research has shown that climate-related disasters have impacted human populations in many
areas including agricultural production, food security, water management and public health. The level of impacts
and coping strategies of populations depends heavily on their socio-economic status, socio-cultural norms, access
to resources, poverty as well as gender. Research has also provided more evidence that the effects are not gender
neutral, as women and children are among the highest risk groups. Key factors that account for the differences
between women’s and men’s vulnerability to climate change risks include: gender-based differences in time use;
access to assets and credit, treatment by formal institutions, which can constrain women’s opportunities, limited
access to policy discussions and decision making, and a lack of sex-disaggregated data for policy change.76
Climate-Driven Migration
There is consensus in the literature that climate change has significant implications for Pacific island populations,
many of whom reside in coastal areas and rely on natural resources for livelihoods and well-being. Climate change
can cause “a reduction in land, livelihood or habitat security for some Pacific communities”.77 Temporary and
permanent involuntary displacement and migration is a known risk.
There is historical precedent for displacement in the Solomon Islands resulting from storm surge and tsunami. In 2007
around 4.6% of the population (24,000 people) was displaced as a result of a tsunami, leading to significant damage
to the country’s economy as well as loss of life.78 Data and evidence on displacement driven by climate change in the
Solomon Islands is limited, but some coastal communities are believed to have already begun preparing to re-settle
inland.79 Indeed, in 2016, 5 uninhabited islands in Solomon Islands, were reportedly completely submerged. Others,
inhabited by very small communities, were significantly eroded leading to permanent displacement.80
The vast majority of Solomon Islanders live in rural areas and rely on subsistence agriculture for food production and
land is usually held by kinship groups making it inextricably linked with a group’s identity and history. With a potential
of land reduction and internal migration of vulnerable communities into other areas of the country, changes to the
demographic make-up of certain areas, climate change might create conditions for increased forms of conflict amongst
the population. Solomon Islands has suffered conflict over land disputes and unequal access to resources and there
is fear the adverse impact of climate change might further exacerbate the drivers of conflict across the country; these
conflict drivers include “the management of land and relations, resource management, changes in population and
demographic make-up, state-community relations and conflict legacies and intergenerational trauma”.81
76
World Bank Group (2016). Gender Equality, Poverty Reduction, and Inclusive Growth. URL: http://documents1.worldbank.org/
curated/en/820851467992505410/pdf/102114-REVISED-PUBLIC-WBG-Gender-Strategy.pdf
77
Climate Change and Migration Issues in the Pacific (2014). United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific. URL: https://www.ilo.org/dyn/migpractice/docs/261/Pacific.pdf
78
OHCHR (2011). Protecting the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons in Natural Disasters. - Regional Office for the Pacific.
URL: http://pacific.ohchr.org/docs/IDP_report.pdf
79
UN Women (2013). Asia and the Pacific - Solomon Islands. URL: https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/countries/fiji/co/solomon-islands
80
Albert, S., Leon, J. X., Grinham, A. R., Church, J. A., Gibbes, B. R., & Woodroffe, C. D. (2016). Interactions between sea-level rise and
wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5), 54011. URL: https://www.
sprep.org/attachments/VirLib/Solomon/interactions-between-sea-level-rise-wave-exposure-reef-island-dynamics.pdf
81
Higgins, K., and Maesua, J. (2019). Climate change, Conflict and Peacebuilding in Solomon Islands, Toda Peace Institute, Policy Brief
no.36. URL: https://toda.org/assets/files/resources/policy-briefs/t-pb-36_higgins-maesua_climate-change-conflict-and-peace-in-
solomon-islands.pdf

Some countries in the Pacific region are using external migration as an adaptive strategy to the impacts of climate
change. However, Solomon Islands unlike other countries (such as Cooks Islands, Samoa or Tonga) in the region
does not enjoy an outward migratory legislation or agreement (such as granting temporary work visas) with countries
such as New Zealand and Australia; as such Solomon Islanders have limited possibilities to externally migrate. This
has meant that while rate of population growth in Solomon Islands has grown exponentially due to limited outward
migratory patterns82 and is experiencing rapid rates of urbanisation (from internal migration).76 In fact, the rate of
rural to urban migration in Solomon Islands was estimated at 4% in 2012.83 However, climate change may end up
increasingly becoming an additional driver of migration.
Most Pacific islands countries have national development plans to enable countries to plan and respond to climate
risks effectively. Solomon Islands’ development plans for the period of 2016–2035 aims to “increase labor mobility and
employment opportunities outside the country, manage labor migration and establish a National Strategic Direction
for labor migration”.84 There is a recognition that there is a demand for labor outside Solomon Islands, particularly
in “horticulture, construction, health, domestic services and hospitality sectors”, and improving migration to secure
employment opportunities would improve the income of Solomon Islanders.79 Studies have highlighted the need to
better understand the health and wellbeing risks of climate-driven migration.85
Human Health
The broad human health risks of climate change in Pacific island countries were assessed in a 2016 study.
A large suite of issues were identified. Specifically flagged in the Solomon Islands were the health impacts of
extreme weather events, heat-related illness, water security and safety, food security and malnutrition, vector-borne
diseases, respiratory illnesses, non-communicable diseases, and a variety of other disorders.86
Heat-Related Mortality
Research has placed a threshold of 35°C (wet bulb ambient air temperature) on the human body’s ability to regulate
temperature, beyond which even a very short period of exposure can present risk of serious ill-health and death.87
Temperatures significantly lower than the 35°C threshold of ‘survivability’ can still represent a major threat to human
82
Ferris E. et al. (2011). On the Front Line of Climate Change and Displacement: Learning from and with Pacific Island Countries,
The Brookings Institution- London School of Economics Project on Internal Displacement. DOI: https://brook.gs/2pqkMzG
83
Solomon Islands Government (2012). Solomon Islands National Climate Change Policy 2012 – 2017, Ministry of Environment,
Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology. URL: https://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/downloads/
solomon_islands-national_climate_change_policy.pdf
84
Solomon Islands Government (2016). National Development Strategy 2016 to 2035 Improving the Social and Economic Livelihoods
of all Solomon Islanders, Ministry of Development Planning and Aid Coordination. URL: https://solomons.gov.sb/wp-content/
uploads/2020/02/National-Development-Strategy-2016.pdf
85
Dannenberg, A.L., Frumkin, H., Hess, J.J. and Ebi, K.L. (2019). Managed retreat as a strategy for climate change adaptation in small
communities: public health implications. Climatic Change, pp. 1–14. URL: https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v153y2019i1d10.1007_
s10584-019-02382-0.html
86
Lachlan, M., Rokho, K., Alistair, W., Simon, H., Jeffery, S., Dianne, K., . . . L., E. K. (2016). Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific
Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities. Environmental Health Perspectives, 124(11),
1707–1714. URL: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26645102/
87
Im, E. S., Pal, J. S., & Eltahir, E. A. B. (2017). Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia.
Science Advances, 3(8), 1–8. URL: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1603322

health. Climate change will push global temperatures closer to this temperature ‘danger zone’ both through slow-
onset warming via an increase mean annual temperature and the intensity and frequency of heat waves. Although
there are challenges of limited downscaled climate information to specify projections, it is likely that climate change
will result in an increased number of people at risk of heat-related medical conditions, perhaps specifically related
to the elderly, children, the chronically ill, the socially isolated and at-risk occupational groups. It should be noted
that the potential reduction in heat-related deaths achievable by pursuing lower emissions pathways is significant,
as demonstrated by Mitchell et al. (2018).88
Disease and General Health

According to the WHO “some of the world’s most virulent infections are also highly sensitive to climate: temperature,
precipitation and humidity have a strong influence on the life-cycles of the vectors and the infectious agents
they carry and influence the transmission of water and foodborne diseases”.89 Climate change threatens to slow
progress in tackling the spread of disease.
As in other countries, loss of a clean water supply can result in water contamination, which will have significant
medical concerns. Generally, an increase in atmosphere and sea temperatures could also intensify risks in water and
vector-borne diseases, such as diarrhoea, disaster-
related fatalities, injuries and illnesses, heat stress
FIGURE 12. Annual average temperature and
and conjunctivitis (pink-eye). It is noted that while
average reporting rates for diarrheal disease,
the interaction between temperature and diarrheal
Pacific islands (1986–1994). r 2 = 0.49; p < 0.05 86
disease is still unclear, one explanation of the
1,000
association is that rotavirus and other bacteria that
cause diarrhoea are able to proliferate in warm
Tokelau
Diarrhea reports per 1,000
marine water. Another possible explanation is Tuvalu

Kiribati
100
that higher temperatures can cause food to spoil Cook Islands
Solomons
Marshall Islands
more rapidly, and thus cause food poisoning.90 Vanuatu
Wallis
Palau
American Samoa
Figure 12 shows research by Singh et al. (2001), Tonga French Polynesia
10
New Caledonia Niue
which demonstrated the link between annual Samoa
Fiji
average temperature and average reporting rates Nauru
of diarrheal disease specifically amongst Pacific 1

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
island states.91
Average annual temperature (°C)
88
Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M., Ebi, K. L., Fischer, E. M., . . . Vardoulakis, S. (2018). Extreme heat-related mortality
avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change, 8(7), 551–553. URL: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30319715/
89
World Health Organisation (2021). South-East Asia. URL: http://www.searo.who.int/entity/water_sanitation/mav_c_h_profile.pdf?ua=1.
[accessed 30/06/2019].
90
Bentham, G., & Langford, I. H. (2001). Environmental temperatures and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales.
International journal of biometeorology, 45(1), 22–26. DOI: 10.1007/s004840000083
91
Singh, R. B., Hales, S., De Wet, N., Raj, R., Hearnden, M., & Weinstein, P. (2001). The influence of climate variation and change on
diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands. Environmental health perspectives, 109(2), 155–159. URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/
pmc/articles/PMC1240636/

POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
National Adaptation Policies and Strategies

• Nationally Determined Contribution (2021)
• Second National Communication (2017)
• Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) (2016)
• Initial National Communication (2004)
Climate Change Priorities of the WBG

WBG — Country Partnership Framework
The WBG and Solomon Islands are in the middle of the Country Partnership Framework FY18-FY23 (CPF). The
CPF supports the Solomon Islands to meet their development goals and long-term vision, identified through five
key objectives:
i. Sustained and inclusive economic growth;

ii. Poverty alleviated across the whole of the Solomon Islands, basic needs addressed, and food security
improved, with the benefits of development more equitably distributed;
iii. Access for all Solomon Islanders to good-quality social services, including education and health;
iv. Resilient and environmentally sustainable development with effective disaster risk management; and
v. A unified nation with stable and effective governance and public order.
Within these key objectives, the CPF is focused on supporting the Solomon Islands to increase its climate resilience,
increase preparedness to natural disasters and increase adaptation efforts to climate change impacts. Specifically,
the CPF program will support farming households to adapt to climate variability and change, increase the resiliency
of transportation and infrastructure, and support projects aimed at the protection of livelihoods at risk, such as the
agricultural and fisheries sectors.

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE
SOLOMON ISLANDS

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CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE

RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS

Graphic Design: Circle Graphics, Inc., Reisterstown, MD.

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS ii

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS iii

CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

POLICIES AND PROGRAMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS iv

Bernice Van Bronkhorst

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 1

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 2

Green, Inclusive and Resilient Recovery

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 3

TABLE 1. Key indicators

Indicator Value Source

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 4

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 5

Min-Temperature Mean-Temperature Max-Temperature

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 6

Mean Surface Air Temp Max Temp Min Temp

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 7

Average temperature anomaly (°C)

productivity of labor, and the yield of crops, which are 3 gfdl_esm2m

often disproportionately influenced by temperature 2.5

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 8

Precipitation anomaly relative to

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 9

probability of a sudden heat wave in subsequent 1

time periods. For the Solomon Islands, this probability

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 10

positive water balance (or wet) conditions and 0

Flood and Cyclones

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 11

it is noted that compared to the historical value, 1000

Looking at further future projections, Figure 9 400

highlights the projected change in annual maximum 200

5-day rainfall of a 25-year return level (under 0

seem to be close to 0 initially then slightly increase

Solomon Islands’ exclusive economic zone at a

Category 3 or higher). ENSO influences cyclone

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 12

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 13

Rate of Global Mean Sea-Level Global Mean Sea-Level Rise in

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 14

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 15

Coral Reefs and Fisheries

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 16

Figure 11 shows that the projected aragonite

as well as complexities of understanding reef-

The fishing sector is a key component of the

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 17

Forests and Island Ecology

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 18

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 19

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 20

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 21

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: SOLOMON ISLANDS 22