The Critical Path in

Forensic Delay Analysis

Dr Alan Whaley

Senior Director / Expert Witness - Arcadis LLP

Programme Leader – Autonomy ES Ltd

© Alan Whaley 1
Dr Alan Whaley Bsc (Hons), LL.M, PhD, APA, Dip (Adj), Dip (ED), MCIOB FCIArb FRICS

o “Alan Whaley is a seasoned delay expert with an o “I therefore accept Mr Whaley’s analysis of the
excellent reputation in the market. Clients say, ‘He culpability for the delay. First because I accept his
is quick to identify issues and appreciates legal analysis of the critical path and secondly having
and practical considerations as well as complex considered important matters of difference, as
technical and financial matters.’” Who’s Who between Mr Whaley and Mr [X] as set out above.”
Legal Leading QC

o “I do not consider there is any answer to the thrust of

Mr Whaley’s observations and criticisms. They are in
o “I found Alan to be an excellent expert who, in
my view well made”. Adjudicator
recognition that delay analysis is a subject
regarded by most to be of a highly technical nature o “I have been assisted by Mr Whaley's analyses,
and of which many arbitrators are unfamiliar with, particularly by his second report which reviews the
provided a concise and readable report, which is further evidence and [Mr X’s] response to his first
an art lost on many experts.” Counsel for report… I have been struck by the examples relied
Claimant, DIAC Arbitration upon by Mr Whaley illustrating the flaws in [Mr X’s]
approach” Leading QC

o “I found Alan to be highly professional and was o “I have now had an opportunity to review Alan’s
impressed with his technical knowledge. I was very report …It is clear, succinct and reads extremely well
happy to have him on our team as a Quantum – one of the clearest delay reports I have had the
Expert Witness.” Counsel for Respondent pleasure of reading!” Counsel for Respondent

2
Today
• What is the critical path?

• The critical path in project management

• The critical path in forensic delay analysis

• Questions/Discussion

3
What is the critical path?

The sequence of activities through a project network

from start to finish, the sum of whose durations
determines the overall Project duration

BS 6079-2:2000 Project management. Vocabulary. Part

2, 2.41
4
What is the critical path?

Level 0 to 1
Level 1 to 2 (Variation)
Tower A
Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4

Level 0 to 1 Level 4 to 5

Level 1 to 2 + Re-build

Tower B Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4
Level 4 to 5

5
Critical path method

JAMES E. KELLEY, JR. MORGAN R. WALKER

Kelly, J., Walker, R. (1959): Critical-path planning and scheduling,

IRE-AIEE-ACM '59 (Eastern): Papers presented at the December
1-3, 1959, eastern joint IRE-AIEE-ACM computer conference
December 1959 6
 Critical path method
In reality, we use software (P6
etc) to calculate the critical
path

7
The critical path in project management

The process of analysing the critical and near

critical activities in a CPM programme to
manage progress, balance resource
allocations and ascertain delays or
acceleration to the date for completion or the
completion date of the works, a section or a
milestone.

Society of Construction Law (2007) Delay and Disruption Protocol 8

 The critical path in project management
Used to collect pertinent information to accomplish the following tasks:

1) To form a basis for prediction and planning

2) To evaluate alternative plans for accomplishing the objective

3) To check progress against current plans and objectives, and

4) To form a basis for obtaining the facts so that decisions can be made and
the job can be done.

Identifying the critical path (and float relative to it) is the time key management
tool for complex projects.

Kelly & Walker (1959)

9
So what?
By now one would have thought that it was well understood that, on a
contract of this kind, in order to attack, on the facts, a clause 24 certificate
for non-completion (or an extension of time determined under clause 25),
the foundation must be the original programme and its success will
similarly depend on the soundness of its revisions on the occurrence
of every event, so as to be able to provide a satisfactory and convincing
demonstration of cause and effect.

A valid critical path (or paths) has to be established both initially and
at every later material point since it (or they) will almost certainly
change.
Balfour Beatty Construction Ltd v London Borough of Lambeth [2002] EWHC 597 (TCC)

10
Limitations of critical path method
• CPM estimates tend to be based on what “can” be
achieved, not what will likely be achieved.

• Human judgment is generally optimistic due to

overconfidence and insufficient consideration of past
outcomes (Kahneman & Amos, 1977).

• Statistical evidence shows that unplanned events are

often unaccounted for during project planning (Flyberg,
2008).
11
Limitations of critical path method
• Critical path method does not explicitly consider resource
limitations or logistic constraints

• Flexible nature of work often renders computed critical path

redundant, as sequence evolves

• Classic CPM is most suited for hard dependencies and vertical

construction.

• Much less suited to volume projects and horizontal construction

12
Vivergo v Redhall
[A]s is common ground between the experts in this case, the use of
critical path analysis is not really an appropriate way of
analysing this type of bulk build project.

The project… was dependent on resources and each area therefore

needed the necessary resources to be committed to it. If any area
did not have the necessary resources applied to it or if those
resources did not achieve the expected productivity that area would
be in delay.

Depending on the amount of delay to one area compared to another

area then the delay to a particular area could cause critical delay to
the overall completion of Redhall's work.
Vivergo Fuels Ltd v Redhall Engineering Solutions Ltd [2013] EWHC 4030 (TCC) 13
Common pitfalls: project managers
• Not having a view on the current critical path

• Failing to adjust programme because it is “official”

• Failing to validate or use the programme critical path

for management

• Project records not aligned with or contradicting

programme

• Delay claims which ignore the critical path

(“entitlement”)

14
Forensic delay analysis?
Why is the critical path important in forensic delay
analysis?

• The critical path is the link between cause and

effect

• Tribunals and experts focus specifically on critical

path activities.

• But, in forensic analysis, the critical path is a

factual issue – not a project management/P6 issue
15
Walter Lilley v Mackay (2012)
Why focus on the critical path in forensic analysis?

The logic is simply that if there are, say, two outstanding items of
work, A and B, and A is always going to take 20 weeks to complete
but B is only going to take 10 weeks, it is A which is delaying the
work because B is going to finish earlier; overall completion is
therefore dictated by the length of time needed for A.

Put another way, it does not matter if B takes 19 weeks, it will be

the completion of A which has prevented completion.

Thus, if one is seeking to ascertain what is delaying a

contractor at any one time, one should generally have regard to
the item of work with the longest sequence.
16
Mirant v Ove Arup (2007)
Why focus on the critical path in forensic analysis?

Mr Hall, who was adamant in his evidence that the erection of the
boiler was and remained on the critical path, wrote to SCC (Mr
Smith and Mr Eller) on 8 May 1997 in terms which made it clear that
he had expected proposals for resolution of the boiler problem to
have been implemented already and that he now expected a speedy
resolution of the problem.

His assertion, without any critical path analysis, that the boiler
was always on the critical path… is not supported by the
Programming Experts.

17
Fact not theory…

The question, at this stage, is what was driving

completion of the relevant Milestones and overall
completion?

That is a factual matter which cannot be overridden

by contractual or legal issues.

Leading QC and TCC Judge, Adjudicator’s Decision

18
Forensic delay analysis
• Three key issues:

1) Which critical path? (methodology)

2) Locating a critical path (method)

3) Validating your critical path (evidence)

19
Which critical path?

Three choices:

• Planned critical path (prospective)

• Actual critical path (contemporaneous)

• As-built critical path (retrospective)

20
Planned critical path
Planned Critical Path: Prospective critical path

determined at the start of a time period based on

contractor’s plan. Ignores what actually

happened and how the contractor actually

constructed the work.

21
 Planned critical path

Week
-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Substructures, 14
• The forecast critical
Steel frame, 33
path runs through
the plant building
Cladding, 5
• Ignores the impact
of actual progress
Equipment install/commision, 5

Handover,

Pipeline connection, 42

22
Actual critical path
Actual Critical Path: The contemporaneous

critical path for a time period (or Window). Takes

account of the actual progress of work and

current planned intent. Accepts that critical paths

change over time.

23
 Actual critical path

Week
-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

• The actual critical

Substructures, 14
path initially ran
through the plant
Steel frame, 33
building
• But at this point, the
Cladding, 5
actual critical path
switched to the
Equipment install/commision, 5
pipeline connection
due to delays in the
Handover,
pipeline connection
works
Pipeline connection, 42

24
As-built critical path
As-Built Critical Path: The retrospective

longest path in the as-built programme. Does

not consider critical path changes during the

project. Assumes all delays exist at the same

time.

25
 As-built critical path

Week
-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

The As-Built /
Substructures, 14
retrospective critical
path runs through the
Steel frame, 33
pipe line connection
Cladding, 5
This being the longest
chain of activities
Equipment install/commision, 5
through the As-Built
Handover,

Pipeline connection, 42

26
Actual vs. As-built critical path
• Month 1
• Variation to Tower A Level 2 – 1m delay.

Tower A Tower B

27
Actual vs. As-built critical path
• Month 3
• Tower B collapses due to major defect.

Tower A Tower B

28
Actual vs. As-built critical path
• Month 5
• Tower A Complete (1m delay)
• Tower B at Level 4 Incomplete (2m delay)

Tower A Tower B

29
Actual Critical Path

Level 0 to 1
Level 1 to 2 (Variation)
Tower A
Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4

Level 0 to 1 Level 4 to 5

Level 1 to 2 + Re-build

Tower B Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4
This approach correctly
Level 4 to 5
recognises the shift in critical
path due to the collapse.
30
As-Built Critical Path

Level 0 to 1
Level 1 to 2 (Variation)
Tower A
Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4

Level 0 to 1 Level 4 to 5

Level 1 to 2 + Re-build

Tower B Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4
This approach suggests that
Level 4 to 5
Tower B was always on the
critical path? Is this correct?
31
ERDC Group v Brunel University (2006)
Mr Robinson was however cross-examined as to why he had not produced by way of

a programme, the as built critical path of all the works. He explained that he

frowned on as-built critical paths since an as-built programme was essentially

a record of when things happened and, as such, it did not contain a logic

network. In order to create an as-built critical path a logic network would have

to be imposed on it but such a programme was not intended to have a logic

network imposed upon it. The as-built critical path does not recognise the fact

that during the course of a project the critical path will move from time to time.

In my view that is a perfectly satisfactory explanation, and certainly for this case.

See also City Inn v Shepherd (2010)

32
Locating the critical path
• Five main methods for locating the actual
critical path:
1. Reported critical paths
2. Critical stages
3. Accrued delay

4. Longest remaining duration

5. Volume of work

33
Locating the critical path
• Five main methods for locating the actual
critical path:
1. Reported critical paths
2. Critical stages
3. Accrued delay

4. Longest remaining duration

5. Volume of work

34
Reported critical paths
• Method:
1. Gather updated programmes/records (soft copy if
available)
2. Identify (filter) critical and near-critical paths in each
programme, or identify reported critical paths
3. Check for reasonableness – exclude any critical paths
which are unreasonable
4. Identify periods over which discrete sequences are
critical
5. Identify the actual critical path

35
Activity ID Activity Name Start Finish Total Activity % Qtr 4, 2018 Qtr 1, 2019 Qtr 2, 2019 Qtr 3, 2019 Qtr 4, 2019 Qtr 1, 2020
Float Complete
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018
08-Jun-18 A 15-Oct-19 0

Key Dates 01-May-19 15-Oct-19 0

Pre-Construction Phase 08-Jun-18 A 15-Oct-19 0

Construction
Construction Phases
12-Feb-19

12-Feb-19
08-Jul-19

08-Jul-19
0

0
Reported critical path:
Phase
Phase
Phase
1
3
4
12-Feb-19
26-Feb-19
25-Feb-19
25-Feb-19
27-Feb-19
13-Mar-19
0
0
0
Generator procurement
Phase 5 14-Mar-19 08-May-19 0
Phase 6 26-Mar-19 11-Apr-19 0
Phase 7 14-Mar-19 09-May-19 0
Phase 8 04-Apr-19 23-May-19 0
Phase 9 11-Apr-19 01-May-19 0
Phase 10 02-May-19 10-Jun-19 0
Phase 11 28-May-19 08-Jul-19 0
Project Handover - AORT 13-May-19 15-Oct-19 0

Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018

08-Jun-18 A 05-Nov-19 0

Key Dates 23-May-19 05-Nov-19 0

Reported critical path:

Pre-Construction Phase 08-Jun-18 A 05-Nov-19 -15

Construction 05-Mar-19 29-Jul-19 -15

Construction Phases 05-Mar-19 29-Jul-19 -15

Phase
Phase
1
3
05-Mar-19
19-Mar-19
18-Mar-19
20-Mar-19
-15
-15 Generator procurement
Phase 4 18-Mar-19 03-Apr-19 -15
Phase 5 04-Apr-19 30-May-19 -15
Phase 6 30-Apr-19 17-May-19 -15
Phase 7 04-Apr-19 31-May-19 -15
Phase 8 10-May-19 14-Jun-19 -15
Phase 9 17-May-19 23-May-19 -15
Phase 10 24-May-19 01-Jul-19 -15
Phase 11 18-Jun-19 29-Jul-19 -15
Project Handover - AORT 04-Jun-19 05-Nov-19 -15

Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018

20-May-19 01-Nov-19 0

Key Dates 01-Nov-19 01-Nov-19 0

Reported critical path:

Construction 20-May-19 09-Aug-19 -23

Construction Phases 20-May-19 09-Aug-19 -23

Construction 20-May-19 09-Aug-19 -23
Phase 5a - Transfer of Load to Temp Panelboard

Phase 6 - Switchroom A Installation

20-May-19
A
Phase 5b - Removal of Exisitng Switchpanel M1/M2
24-May-19
17-Jun-19
23-May-19
14-Jun-19
03-Jul-19
-23
-23
-23
Power On (Constraint)
Phase 6a - Commission Switchpanel AM1/7 24-Jun-19 16-Jul-19 -23
Phase 6b - Migration of Services to AM1/7 10-Jul-19 09-Aug-19 -23
Project Handover - AORT 14-Jun-19 01-Nov-19 -12

Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018

20-May-19 01-Nov-19 0

Key Dates 01-Nov-19 01-Nov-19 0

Construction
Construction Phases
20-May-19

20-May-19
09-Aug-19

09-Aug-19
-23

-23
Reported critical path:
Construction 20-May-19
Phase 5a - Transfer of Load to Temp Panelboard
20-May-19
A
Phase 5b - Removal of Exisitng Switchpanel M1/M2
24-May-19
09-Aug-19
23-May-19
14-Jun-19
-23
-23
-23
Power On (Constraint)
Phase 6 - Switchroom A Installation 17-Jun-19 03-Jul-19 -23
Phase 6a - Commission Switchpanel AM1/7 24-Jun-19 16-Jul-19 -23
Phase 6b - Migration of Services to AM1/7 10-Jul-19 09-Aug-19 -23
Project Handover - AORT 14-Jun-19 01-Nov-19 -12

Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018

18-Mar-19 A 11-Feb-20 0

Key Dates 11-Feb-20 11-Feb-20 0

Key Contract Dates 11-Feb-20 11-Feb-20 0

Sectional Dates
Construction
11-Feb-20
18-Mar-19 A
11-Feb-20
30-Oct-19
-69
-80 Reported critical path:
Switchgear changeover
Construction Phases 18-Mar-19 A 30-Oct-19 -80
Construction 18-Mar-19 A 30-Oct-19 -80
Phase 1 28-Jun-19 04-Jul-19 -72

Phase 3-4
Phase 3a - Generator/Gen Panel and ATS/B Install
19-Jun-19 18-Jul-19 -80
Phase 3b - Switchpanel AM2/3 and UPS Position17-Apr-19 A 17-Jun-19 -80
Phase 4 - Switchroom B Distribution board connections
18-Mar-19 A 07-Jun-19 -80
Phase 4a - Power Migration to Switchpanel AM2/3
10-Apr-19
and UPS
A Install
26-Jul-19 -80
Phase 4b - New AM2 UKPN Supply to AM2/3 08-Jul-19 24-Jul-19 -80
Phase 5 - Installation of Temporary Panelboard
01-Aug-19
A 20-Sep-19 -80
Phase 5a - Transfer of Load to Temp Panelboard
25-Jul-19
A 06-Aug-19 -80
Phase 5b - Removal of Exisitng Switchpanel M1/M2
06-Aug-19 30-Aug-19 -80
Phase 6 - Switchroom A Installation 02-Sep-19 03-Oct-19 -80
Phase 6a - Commission Switchpanel AM1/7 23-Sep-19 09-Oct-19 -80
Phase 6b - Migration of Services to AM1/7 04-Oct-19 30-Oct-19 -80
Project Handover - AORT 04-Sep-19 11-Feb-20 -69

Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018

03-Jul-19 24-Feb-20 0

Key Dates 24-Feb-20 24-Feb-20 0

Construction
Construction Phases
03-Jul-19

03-Jul-19
12-Nov-19

12-Nov-19
-89

-89 Reported critical path:

Switchgear changeover
Construction 03-Jul-19 12-Nov-19 -89
Phase 3a - Generator/Gen Panel and ATS/B Install
03-Jul-19 30-Jul-19 -89
Phase 5a - Transfer of Load to Temp Panelboard
06-Aug-19
A 16-Aug-19 -89

Phase 4-5
Phase 5b - Removal of Exisitng Switchpanel M1/M2
16-Aug-19 11-Sep-19 -89
Phase 6 - Switchroom A Installation 12-Sep-19 16-Oct-19 -89
Phase 6a - Commission Switchpanel AM1/7 04-Oct-19 22-Oct-19 -89
Phase 6b - Migration of Services to AM1/7 17-Oct-19 12-Nov-19 -89
Project Handover - AORT 17-Sep-19 24-Feb-20 -78

Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018

05-Aug-19 16-Mar-20 0

Key Dates 16-Mar-20 16-Mar-20 0

Key Contract Dates

Sectional Dates
16-Mar-20
16-Mar-20
16-Mar-20
16-Mar-20
0
-93
Reported critical path:
Construction
Project Handover - AORT
05-Aug-19

08-Oct-19
03-Dec-19

16-Mar-20
-104

-93 Switchgear changeover

Power Resilience-SCH000001 Rev09 DD 29-11-2018
30-Sep-19 A 16-Apr-20 0

Phase 5 and 6 36
Reported critical paths
2018 2019 2020
N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

Power Resilience:
Construction Completion
Procurement of generators (Rev2 to Rev3)

Switchgear changeover phase 3 to 4 (Rev 8)

Switchgear changeover phase 4 and 5 (Rev 9)

Switchgear changeover phase 5 and 6 (Rev 10)

Key Complete commisioning to actual completion of Section 1 (As-built)

As Planned
As Built
Critical Path

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
2018 2019 2020
37
Reported critical paths
2018 2019 2020
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

Section 2: Actual Critical Path

Road A Surface Water Drainage; CH 60 to 280 (Prog 09)

Road A Surface Water Drainage; CH 280 to 340 (Prog 12)

Road A Surface Water Drainage; CH 280 to 340 (Prog 14)

Road A Surface Water Drainage; CH 280 to 340 (Prog 15)

Road A Utiltites; CH 20 to 340 (Back of Highways) (Prog 18)

Key
As Planned Road A Surfacing; CH 20 to 340 (Back of Highways) (Prog 20)
As Built
Critical Path
Another example
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
2018 2019 2020
38
Reported critical paths
Mr [X] objects to Mr Whaley’s use of these other
programmes to derive the critical path on the basis that
none of them were accepted and, in the case of [], it was
provided on a without prejudice basis... In my view
neither of these reasons are good reasons for not
adopting these other programmes.

Leading QC and TCC Judge, Adjudicator’s Decision

39
Reported critical paths

Criticality depends, at least in part, on what the

contractor thought at the time was the critical path

Leading QC, Adjudicator’s Decision

40
Reported critical paths
• Pros
• Straightforward
• Derived from contemporary evidence
• Effective if contractor used programmes to
construct the project
• Cons
• Directly dependent on quality of programmes
• Ineffective if contractor is not using programmes to
construct
• Does not really identify detailed critical path
41
Critical stages
• Method:
1. Study drawings, planned programme and
progress records
2. Identify 4 to 6 critical stages of work
3. Construct high-level as-planned vs as-built
4. Identify planned and as-built period for each
stage
5. Examine as-built records within stages to
determine location of actual critical path
42
Critical stages
• E.g. A pre-fabricated exhibition space:
1. Substructures
2. Superstructure / Envelope
3. 1st Fix Installations
4. 2nd Fix Installations
5. Testing and Commissioning
• The critical path will probably run through these
activities. The issue is when, where and for how
long?
43
Critical stages
2018 2019

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

26-Mar 27-Apr Substructure AS-PLANNED

CONTRACT PROGRAMME
30-Apr 10-May Superstructure (steelwork)
10-May 18-May Wall/Roof Panels (including external taping)
21-May 8-Jun Roof Coverings
21-May 28-May Windows
23-May 11-Jun 1st Fix Fitout (to completion of partitions / start of finishes)
11-Jun 9-Jul 2nd Fix Fitout (from start of finishes)
6-Jul 12-Jul Snagging, Commissioning and Handover
16-May 18-Jun External Wall Finishes (Brickwork/Render)
4-Jun 12-Jul External works
12-Jul Practical Completion

30-Apr 8-Jun Substructure

AS-BUILT
11-Jun 20-Jun Superstructure (steelwork)
PROGRESS RECORDS
14-Jun 5-Jul Wall/Roof Panels (including external taping)
12-Jul 24-Jul Roof Coverings to Watertight
6-Jul 15-Aug 1st Fix Fitout (to completion of partitions / start of finishes)
1-Oct 1-Oct Scaffold removed
13-Aug 10-Oct Windows
16-Aug 9-Dec 2nd Fix Fitout (from start of finishes)
15-Aug 4-Sep 17-Oct 31-Oct Kitchen installations
Outstanding Work/Snagging and Handover 10-Dec 13-Mar
25-Jul 2-Nov External Wall Finishes (Brickwork/Render)
25-Jul 15-Aug Completion of Roof Coverings 14-Jan 24-Jan Roof coverings: defect repairs
Key
7-Oct 7-Dec External works
As Planned
Practical Completion 13-Mar 26-Apr
As Built
Critical Path BT C onnection 10-Dec 13-Dec 3-Apr 4-Apr

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

2018 2019

44
Critical stages
2018 2019

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

26-Mar 27-Apr Substructure AS-PLANNED

CONTRACT PROGRAMME
30-Apr 10-May Superstructure (steelwork)
10-May 18-May Wall/Roof Panels (including external taping)
21-May 8-Jun Roof Coverings
21-May 28-May Windows
23-May 11-Jun 1st Fix Fitout (to completion of partitions / start of finishes)
11-Jun 9-Jul 2nd Fix Fitout (from start of finishes)
6-Jul 12-Jul Snagging, Commissioning and Handover
16-May 18-Jun External Wall Finishes (Brickwork/Render)
4-Jun 12-Jul External works
12-Jul Practical Completion

30-Apr 8-Jun Substructure

AS-BUILT
11-Jun 20-Jun Superstructure (steelwork)
PROGRESS RECORDS
14-Jun 5-Jul Wall/Roof Panels (including external taping)
12-Jul 24-Jul Roof Coverings to Watertight
6-Jul 15-Aug 1st Fix Fitout (to completion of partitions / start of finishes)
1-Oct 1-Oct Scaffold removed
13-Aug 10-Oct Windows
16-Aug 9-Dec 2nd Fix Fitout (from start of finishes)
15-Aug 4-Sep 17-Oct 31-Oct Kitchen installations
Outstanding Work/Snagging and Handover 10-Dec 13-Mar
25-Jul 2-Nov External Wall Finishes (Brickwork/Render)
25-Jul 15-Aug Completion of Roof Coverings 14-Jan 24-Jan Roof coverings: defect repairs
Key
7-Oct 7-Dec External works
As Planned
Practical Completion 13-Mar 26-Apr
As Built
Critical Path BT C onnection 10-Dec 13-Dec 3-Apr 4-Apr

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

2018 2019

45
Critical stages
2018 2019
A S O N D J F M A

As-Planned vs. As-Built

21-Aug 4-Oct 2nd Fix Fitout (from start of finishes) 2nd Fix Fitout & Kitchen Installation Comparison

Maximum of 6 calendar
21-Sep 1-Oct Kitchen installations days prospective delay
following introduction of
Kitchen
6d
2-Oct 10-Oct Testing & Commissioning

10-Oct 10-Oct PC
AS-PLANNED
REV C PROGRAMME
DATED 15 AUGUST 2018

AS-BUILT
PROGRESS RECORDS
16-Aug 7-Dec 2nd Fix Fitout (from start of finishes)

Nil calendar days of

critical delay caused by
15-Aug 4-Sep 17-Oct 31-Oct Kitchen installations
kitchens in as-built
programme
40d period after Kitchen

Outstanding Work/Snagging and Handover 10-Dec 13-Mar

Key
As Planned 13-Mar 13-Mar PC
As Built
Critical Path

A S O N D J F M A
2018 2019

46
Critical stages
E.g. my opinion:

Window 3: 7 July 2018 to 15 August 2018

(Completion of 1st Fix)

In my opinion, the critical path during Window 3 ran

through the progression of the 1st fix mechanical
and electrical work, the partitions and the joinery 1st
fix until around 15 August 2018 (the end of Window
3), when the critical path shifted to the start of the
2nd fix fit out work
47
Critical stages
E.g. Adjudicator’s Decision:
Window 3: 7 July 2018 to 15 August 2018 (Completion of
1st Fix)
By 15 August [] suggested a delay of 4 to 6 weeks
caused by late discharge of planning condition 10 by the
planners. This related to the approval of a hard and soft
landscaping scheme before groundworks might begin. In
my view, the critical path clearly lay through the 1st fix at
this point and the cause was simply slow progress
against programme by []

48
Critical stages
• Pros
1. Intuitive and easy to understand
2. Works at any level of analysis
3. Can identify detailed critical path without software
• Cons
1. Cannot identify changes to critical path on its own
2. Difficult to determine competing critical paths on
its own
3. Requires repeat steps to identify detailed critical
path
49
Locating the critical path
• In reality, we may use a combination of methods to suit the project / work under
analysis:

Reported Remaining Volume of

Type of project Critical stages Accrued delay
critical paths duration work

May be suitable May be suitable May be suitable

Residential building
Suitable Suitable (near end of (competing (nr units
project
project) paths) complete)

May be suitable May be suitable May be suitable

High rise construction
Suitable Suitable (near end of (competing (e.g. MEP/
project
project) paths) finishes)

May be suitable May be suitable May be suitable

Heavy/industrial
Suitable Suitable (near end of (competing (e.g. MEP/
engineering project
project) paths) finishes)

May be suitable
Cable pulling/pipe laying May be suitable Not usually Not usually
(near end of Suitable
project (reliable progs.) suitable suitable
project)

May be suitable
May be suitable Not usually Not usually
Marine works project (near end of Suitable
(reliable progs.) suitable suitable
project)

50
Validating your critical path
Key considerations:

• Can you explain, in a straightforward way, why your critical

path is correct?

• What evidence exists to support your critical path (or does it

contradict evidence)?

• Does it offend common sense?

51
The importance of records
…Close consideration and examination of the actual evidence of what
was happening on the ground will reveal if the delay in approving the
sewerage design actually played a role in delaying the project and, if
so, how and by how much.
White Constructions v PBS Holdings (2019)

…there is little indication in the contemporaneous documents, that, at any

time, OSR put any great emphasis on these matters, or were claiming they
were likely to lead to a doubling of the Contract price. To the extent that the
contents of the contemporaneous documents comprise a credibility
test to be applied to the OSR claims, then I consider that . . . they
comprehensively fail the test.

Van Oord v Allseas (2015)

52
The importance of records
On 6 October 2008 an internal SCL report identified PFP and
insulation as "on top most critical path". SABIC held the same
view, which continued through the month. By the end of the month it
was Mr Martin's view that application of PFP at current rates would
keep PFP on the critical path and delay would result.

Mr Crane's retrospective analysis supports the view that PFP was

critical. Mr Crossley disagreed but, for reasons given above, I do
not find his evidence on this point persuasive. On this evidence,
I find that the parties believed PFP to be critical and also that,
subject only to the question of the Secondary Compressor (to
which I return later) it was critical.
53
Sabic UK Petrochemicals Ltd v Punj Lloyd Ltd [2013] EWHC 2916 (TCC)
 Finally, common sense?
Flagpole imported
from in Italy (1% of
work)

Residential tower
onto which flagpole is
fixed (99% of work)

54
Planned Programme

Flagpole design
Flagpole manufacture/lead-in/ install

Level 0 to 1
Level 1 to 2 (Variation)
Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4

Level 4 to 5

TOC

55
As-Built Programme

Flagpole design

Flagpole manufacture/lead-in
Flagpole install
Level 0 to 1
Level 1 to 2 (Variation)
Level 2 to 3

Level 3 to 4

Level 4 to 5

TOC

56
Finally, common sense?
Did the flag poll really delay completion?

Probably not.

Focus usually on the critical path through

physical construction work, not the offsite
activities.
57
Summary
• In construction project management, the critical path is
a management tool based on calculations and
theory

• In forensic analysis, the critical path is a factual issue

to be determined on the range of evidence

• Remember: we are interested in the critical path of the

project, not the critical path of the P6 schedule.
58
Interested to learn more?
BTEC Level 7

Advanced Professional Award

Forensic Delay Analysis in Construction

Next programme starts 16 April 2022

• Module 1: Delay Analysis Methodologies for Dispute Resolution

• Module 2: Forensic Delay Analysis Practice

• Module 3: Delay Expert Report Writing

https://www.autonomy-es.co.uk/
59
Questions?

BTEC Level 7 in Forensic Delay Analysis

[email protected]

Expert Witness Enquiries

[email protected]

60