Board Bia Report 2023

August 2023
Global Dairy Market Report

August 2023
Page 1 Table of Contents

August 2023
Contents
Your Bord Bia Team 3
Executive Summary 4
Global Supply
Ireland Supply 5
EU-28 6
United States 7
New Zealand 8
Australia 9
Argentina 10
China
Macroeconomics 11
Domestic Dairy Market 12
Demand Summary 13
Import Prices 14
SE Asia
Macroeconomics 15
Demand Summary 16
Indonesia 17
Japan 18
Malaysia 19
Philippines 20
Singapore 21
South Korea 22
Thailand 23
Vietnam 24
MENA
Macroeconomics 25
Demand Summary 26
Algeria 27
Egypt 28
Iraq 29
Kuwait 30
Morocco 31
Saudi Arabia 32
UAE 33
Global Prices
WMP 34
SMP 35
Butter 36
Cheese 37
FAQ/Data/Methodology 38
Disclaimer 39

August 2023
Your Bord Bia Team:

Your Bord Bia Team:
Ireland Tokyo
Margaret Butler Joe Moore

Sector Manager East Asia Market Specialist
Dairy Ingredients (Japan & Korea)
[email protected] [email protected]
+353 1 6143631
China Singapore
Conor O'Sullivan, Patrick Lim

Manager, China Dairy, Market Specialist
[email protected] [email protected]
Middle East
Suki Wu
Dairy Market Specialist, Kieran Fitzgerald
[email protected] Regional Director
Middle East and Africa
Markets
[email protected]
Evelyn Chiang
Insight & Planning Specialist
Asia
[email protected]

August 2023
Executive Summary
Milk production is still growing across the major ex-
Milk Production, Major Exporters ('000 MT)
porters, driven largely by Europe. Farm gate margins (EU-28, NZ, US, AU, AR, 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Mon.)
in the U.S. are very poor and leading to a drop in cow 10% 28,000
numbers and slowdown in production. Argentina is 8% 26,000
Year Over Year Change

improving, but was still negative in June. New Zea-
Production ('000 MT)

6% 24,000
land was down in June (but should bounce higher).
Nearly all of the production growth across the major 4% 22,000
exporters in June came from the EU. Milk prices are 2% 20,000
coming down and margins are getting tighter every-
0% 18,000
where which should slow milk production growth in
-2% 16,000
Q4 and the first half of 2024. But margins don’t look
Annual % Chng Production
bad enough to cause a large drop in production yet. -4% 14,000
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
Source: Eurostat, USDA, DCANZ, LIC, DairyAustralia, MAGyP, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
Global Milk Equivalent Imports ('000 MT) Global import numbers have improved. Chinese im-
(Adjusted to 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Months) ports are running well above last year’s very low lev-
40% 8,000 els. Imports by countries other than China improved
7,000 in April/May and likely June. Low prices are bringing
30%
some buyers off the sidelines. But in general, demand

Exports ('000 MT)
6,000
20%
5,000 has been weaker than expected, especially in South-
10% 4,000
east Asia and parts of the Middle East (Egypt and Iraq
still dealing with currency issues). The generally low
3,000
0% dairy prices should drive some stock piling in the sec-
2,000
-10% ond half of the year, but there is also a risk that Chi-
1,000
Annual % Chng Imports
nese imports slow again in Q4 which could offset de-
-20% 0
mand strength in other countries.
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
WMP SMP Butter AMF Cheese IMF Milk Yogurt MPC Casein Caseinates WPC WPI Lactose
SEA
MENA
Dairy prices have generally been steady to lower in recent Global Manufacturing Milk Prices
months. While there are some glimmers of hope for global (4.0% fat/3.4% protein)
import demand, production is still relatively strong and $700
domestic demand inside of the EU and U.S. has been
Price (USD/MT)
$575
weak. EU prices have largely been competitive for SMP,
butter and cheese, although WMP remains a difficult sell $450
and U.S. whey/lactose prices have been running lower
$325
than Europe. Even with an expected slowdown in milk pro-
duction, we likely need to see an improvement in demand $200 EU Gov't Support
just to hold prices steady. Demand is a big downside risk 2020 2021 2022 2023
Oceania EU US
for the market. Source: USDA, EEX, Trigona, StoneX Calculations and Estimates

August 2023
Ireland Supply
A combination of falling milk prices and unfavourable Ireland Milk Production ('000 MT)
weather conditions in March and April saw Irish milk (Adjusted to 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Months)
supplies pull back heavily in April (-2.5% YoY). Im- 20% 1,400
proved weather in May, the peak month saw milk 1,200
15%
production recover with provisional numbers coming

1,000

in just behind last year (–0.1% YoY) though this may 10% 800
be subject to some revisions. Milk collections after 5%
600
five months of 2023 provisionally sit 0.7% behind last 400
0%
year at 3.66 million tonnes. Irish milk collections are 200
expected to remain somewhat subdued into June and -5% 0
July as conditions were a little but too dry in June be- -200
-10%
fore turning very wet again in July. Falling milk prices -400
will put further pressure on farmgate margins and -15% -600
temper supplies. Source: Eurostat, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
IE Milk Equivalent Exports Ireland Farm Gate Milk Price

(12 Month Total, '000 MT) (3.7% fat, 3.3% protein, euro/litre of milk)
2,700 900 0.63
All Destinations ('000 MT)
0.61
0.59
SEA/MENA ('000 MT)
2,500 800 0.57

0.55
0.53
2,300 700 0.51 75th
0.49
0.47
Percentile
2,100 600 0.45
0.43
0.41
1,900 500 0.39
0.37
1,700 400 0.35
0.33
Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 0.31 25th
0.29
All Destinations SE Asia MENA Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Percentile
Jan-24
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts Source: CSO, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
IE Dairy Exports (MT, Extra-EU Shipments)

YoY 12 Month YoY YoY 12 Month YoY
May-23 Change Total Change May-23 Change Total Change
Milk Equivalent 217,079 12.4% 2,232,731 0.1% Yogurt 19 -63.3% 343 -52.7%
WMP 3,046 666.5% 13,639 -42.8% MPC 18 37 -79.3%

SMP 9,023 90.5% 89,442 18.3% Casein 1,800 -41.5% 32,123 -13.8%
Caseinates 303 64.5% 2,726 19.5%
Butter 4,995 -1.0% 50,468 10.6%
AMF 0 -100.0% 0 -100.0% Whey/WPC 3,992 -40.4% 48,737 -6.3%
WPI 79 -28.5% 1,102 -26.6%
Cheese 6,352 17.3% 60,630 -8.1% Lactose 0 100.0% 134 -75.4%
Infant Formula 6,767 -2.1% 75,490 4.7% FFMP 13,882 -20.5% 119,029 -26.3%
Liquid Milk 9,718 42.6% 71,746 -4.6%
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Estimates

August 2023
EU-27 + UK Supply
Estimated headline EU-27+UK milk production in May EU-27+UK Milk Production ('000 MT)
was up 0.5% from last year. The amount of fat and (Adjusted to 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Months)
protein in the milk was up 0.9% YoY which puts com- 10% 15,000
ponent adjusted production up 1.4% which is a little 8% 14,000

weaker than the revised 1.6% growth for April. Farm

6% 13,000
gate milk prices are flattening out at mildly profitable
levels for many farmers. Milk production is still ex- 4% 12,000
pected to fall below year ago in Q4 as we lap over 2% 11,000

very good fall weather last year. While margins don’t
0% 10,000
appear weak enough to cause a significant contrac-
-2% 9,000
tion in EU production, the combination of lower milk
prices and tightening environmental regulation -4% 8,000
should limit production growth in 2024.
Source: Eurostat, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
EU-28 Milk Equivalent Exports EU-27 Gross Dairy Margin

(12 Month Total, '000 MT) (Milk Price minus Feed Cost, Euro/100 kg of milk)
31,000 7,800 37.0
SEA/MENA ('000 MT)
30,000 32.0
6,800
Production
29,000 expansion
5,800 27.0
trigger
28,000
22.0
4,800
27,000
17.0
26,000 3,800 Production
Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 contraction
12.0 trigger
All Destinations SE Asia MENA
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts Source: EU Commission, USDA, Eurostat, FRED, CBOT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
EU-27 + UK Dairy Exports (MT, Extra-EU Shipments)

Milk Equivalent 2,573,527 4.4% 28,192,511 -2.7% Yogurt 7,502 -3.9% 88,320 -0.3%
WMP 30,378 45.7% 231,610 -14.1% MPC 6,371 -37.1% 94,207 -12.7%
SMP 75,034 24.3% 804,543 10.9% Casein 3,303 -36.5% 55,028 -10.6%
Caseinates 2,185 -10.8% 24,493 -16.7%
Butter 18,589 16.1% 181,673 -2.0%
AMF 2,391 23.4% 18,392 -19.5% Dry Whey 50,644 3.7% 558,489 -0.9%
WPC 6,315 3.0% 68,375 -4.8%
Cheese 86,391 5.3% 941,473 -4.1% WPI 3,277 -4.5% 37,170 -23.0%
Infant Formula 33,257 -27.4% 513,716 7.9% Lactose 18,145 -5.5% 223,810 -12.2%
Liquid Milk 143,924 10.0% 1,513,609 -10.4% FFMP 34,906 -11.2% 349,226 -13.0%

August 2023
United States Supply

Headline U.S. milk production for June was flat
US Milk Production ('000 MT)
against last year, which was weaker than the +0.6% (Adjusted to 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Months)
forecast. Fat and protein in the milk was up from last 7% 9,000
year, putting component adjusted production up Annual % Chng Production
6%

1.0%. The USDA revised down the size of the dairy 8,500

5%
herd for earlier months and they are showing a
4% 8,000
16,000 head decline between May and June. We
3%
should continue to see the herd trend lower, but we
2% 7,500
should also see an improvement in milk production
per cow which will keep milk production above year 1%
7,000
ago for the second half of 2023. 0%
-1% 6,500
Source: USDA, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
US Milk Equivalent Exports US Gross Dairy Margin

(12 Month Total, '000 MT) (Milk Price minus Feed Cost, USD/100 lbs. of milk)
19,000 8,000 $19.00
Herd
SEA/MENA ('000 MT)
18,000 $17.00
expansion
6,000
17,000 $15.00 trigger
16,000 4,000 $13.00
15,000 $11.00
2,000
14,000 $9.00
13,000 0 $7.00
Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Herd contraction trigger
$5.00
All Destinations SE Asia MENA Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts Source: USDA, CBOT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
US Dairy Exports (MT)

Milk Equivalent 1,510,459 -12.3% 18,083,101 4.9% Yogurt 1,486 -11.2% 18,902 -2.6%
WMP 2,669 -45.8% 30,890 -19.3% MPC 3,980 -0.7% 49,544 21.1%
SMP 79,501 -3.1% 829,738 -3.2% Casein 98 -59.2% 1,743 -16.9%
Caseinates 150 5.7% 2,377 4.9%
Butter 2,871 -29.5% 58,130 22.4%
AMF 795 -20.4% 11,918 -30.6% Dry Whey 16,026 -2.2% 228,645 12.8%
WPC 12,495 -25.5% 163,101 8.7%
Cheese 33,253 -18.7% 446,028 4.4% WPI 6,503 16.5% 68,674 8.4%
Infant Formula 3,593 61.8% 28,609 -3.5% Lactose 38,505 -5.3% 434,442 25.3%
Liquid Milk 17,284 -19.4% 180,980 -5.2%

August 2023
New Zealand Supply

New Zealand milk solids production in June was down New Zealand Milk Production ('000 MT)
0.4% from last year, which was a little weaker than (Adjusted to 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Months)
the +0.3% forecast. The Pasture Growth Index (PGI) 45% 4,000
was a little lower than average in May/early June 3,000
35%

which might have held back production a bit. The PGI

2,000
has improved and has been running well above last 25%
year and well above average which should generate 1,000

15%
some positive production growth for July/August. 0
Overall, there has probably been another decline in 5%
-1,000
the size of the dairy herd but milk production is still
-5% -2,000
expected to be up 0.5% on improved production per
cow. -15% -3,000
Source: DCANZ, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
NZ Milk Equivalent Exports

(12 Month Total, '000 MT)
New Zealand Pasture Growth Index
30 Day Rolling Average
24,000 7,000
0.65
SEA/MENA ('000 MT)
23,500 6,000
0.55
23,000 0.45
5,000
22,500 0.35
4,000 0.25
22,000 0.15
3,000 0.05
21,500
August
May
October
September
December
February
July
April
March
November
June
January
21,000 2,000
Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
All Destinations SE Asia MENA 22/23 23/24 5-Yr Average
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts Source: Reuters, StoneX Ca lculations
NZ Dairy Exports (MT)

Jun-23 Change Total Change Jun-23 Change Total Change
Milk Equivalent 2,060,699 26.8% 22,931,705 6.5% Yogurt 51 -8.7% 631 -19.4%
WMP 125,311 24.2% 1,399,426 -2.0% MPC 6,280 6.8% 68,086 -11.3%
SMP 44,608 69.5% 445,036 32.9% Casein 4,348 -3.9% 56,553 -8.7%
Caseinates 2,207 -30.5% 31,020 -5.2%
Butter 20,797 5.6% 280,518 15.9%
AMF 26,917 59.7% 220,040 26.3% Whey/WPC 742 -46.5% 15,695 -10.0%
WPI 1,889 45.6% 22,871 -6.8%
Cheese 37,702 49.1% 390,304 13.0% Lactose 2,340 -32.6% 30,074 15.8%
Infant Formula 5,202 -47.1% 111,755 8.3%
Liquid Milk 51,760 19.0% 830,686 -0.7%

August 2023
Australia Supply
Australia’s headline milk production in May was up AU Milk Production ('000 MT)
1.6% from last year which was stronger than (Adjusted to 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Months)
the -1.3% forecast. Protein content of the milk was up 11% 1,200
from last year while fat was down slightly. Combined 1,000

fat and protein was up 0.3% from last year which put 6%

800
component adjusted production up 1.9%. Like in New 600

1%
Zealand, it has been a stronger than expected end to 400
the season. Back in March, we were forecasting the 200

-4%
full season down 5.5% (headline), but production has 0
been coming in a little better than forecast and with -9% -200
just one month left it looks like the season will only -400
be down 4.8%. -14% -600
Source: DairyAustralia, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
AU Milk Equivalent Exports Victoria Australia Cost of Production and Farm

(12 Month Total, '000 MT) Gate Milk Price (AUD/Kg MS)
3,500 2,000 $10.00
$9.00
SEA/MENA ('000 MT)
$8.00
3,300 1,500
$7.00
$6.00
3,100 1,000 Interest
$5.00
$4.00 Fixed Costs
2,900 500 $3.00 Variable Costs
$2.00 Milk Price
2,700 0 $1.00
Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 $0.00
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24

Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts Source: DairyAustralia, FRED, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
AU Dairy Exports (MT)

Milk Equivalent 227,013 -21.2% 2,738,963 -18.8% Yogurt 729 11.2% 6,854 -9.0%
WMP 2,317 -22.9% 21,518 -51.3% MPC 33 22.7% 276 -67.0%

SMP 8,975 -27.6% 131,995 -17.0% Casein 0 -100.0% 44 -23.4%
Caseinates 3 -1.6% 26 -34.5%
Butter 320 -70.1% 5,174 -60.2%
AMF 335 -3% 3,876 -31.7% Why/WPC 3,889 36.1% 28,473 1.5%
WPI 61 -85.4% 2,322 -62.2%
Cheese 11,472 -18.5% 131,067 -16.4% Lactose 0 28.4% 5 53.9%
Infant Formula 2,520 -3.9% 21,344 -4.8%
Liquid Milk 17,851 -48.4% 282,976 -32.0%

August 2023
Argentina Supply
Headline milk production for Argentina was down AR Milk Production ('000 MT)
0.9% from last year in June which was a little weaker (Adjusted to 4.0% fat/3.4% protein, 30 Day Months)
than the -0.4% forecast. The fat and protein in the 30% 1,400
milk were both down slightly from last year, pulling 25% 1,200

component adjusted production down to -1.4%. Hot 20% 1,000

and dry weather, along with high input costs, dented
15% 800
milk production during the first half of the year and
10% 600
pushed milk prices up to very profitable levels. These
5% 400
good margins should help to push milk production
0% 200
back above year ago in the second half of 2023, but
weaker demand is now pushing milk prices lower -5% 0
which should keep the production growth relatively -10% -200
subdued.
Source: MAGyP, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
AR Milk Equivalent Exports AR Gross Dairy Margin

(12 Month Total, '000 MT) (Milk Price minus Feed Cost, USD/Liter of milk)
2,600 1,000 $0.28
Expansion
$0.26
SEA/MENA ('000 MT)
2,400 trigger
800
$0.24
2,200
600 $0.22
2,000 $0.20
400
1,800 $0.18
200 $0.16
1,600
$0.14
1,400 0 Contraction trigger
$0.12
Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
$0.10
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts Source: USDA, CBOT, StoneX Calculations and Forecasts
AR Dairy Exports (MT)

Jun-23 Change Total Change Jun-23 Change Total Change
Milk Equivalent 127,489 -33.6% 2,226,945 -10.1%
WMP 6,701 -29.3% 124,794 -23.7% MPC 0 0

SMP 716 -72.5% 23,363 4.7% Casein 0 0
Caseinates 0 0
Butter 826 -63.2% 21,186 -5.1%
AMF 221 -59.5% 6,573 26.4% Whey/WPC 0 0
WPI 0 0 -100.0%
Cheese 5,528 -19.1% 86,571 10.9% Lactose 0 0
Infant Formula 155 -73.6% 1,483 -68.0%
Liquid Milk 1,130 125.7% 8,133 39.4%

August 2023
China - Macroeconomics
China’s Q2 GDP came in a little worse than expected, up 6.3% from last year’s lockdown-impacted levels, but it was only up
0.8% from the first quarter compared to 2.2% growth for Q1 on a quarter to quarter basis. Consumer confidence is improving
but remains at very low levels. Surveys still show consumers worried about their income, employment and the housing market.
58% of survey respondents in the second quarter said they would prefer to save extra income rather than spend it, unchanged
from Q1, but up from 45% in 2019. The government has stepped up various efforts to stimulate the economy like slightly lower
interest rates and relaxing rules on purchasing second homes which should all help a little, but these measures don’t look sub-
stantial enough to give the economy a quick boost.
China Economy Leading Indicator China Consumer Confidence Index

130 106
115 104
102
100
100
85
98
70
96
55
94
40 92
25 90
Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23
Source: CEIC Source: OECD
China, Real GDP Growth, YoY

20%
10%
0%
-10%
Source:
CEIC
U.S. Dollar/Chinese Yuan Chinese Yuan Indices

¥7.40 (Higher Index = Stronger Currency)
¥7.20 108
¥7.00 103
¥6.80
98
¥6.60
93
¥6.40
88
¥6.20 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23
Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23
USD EUR NZD

Source: FRED Source: FRED, StoneX Calculations

August 2023
China - Domestic Dairy Market

Dairy demand inside of China continues to look weak with China Farm Gate Milk Price Seasonal (Yuan/kg)
consumers preferring more mid-tier brands and products. The ¥4.30
weak demand and over supply are a drag on retail prices.
¥4.20
Farm gate milk prices typically start to seasonally increase in
June, but this year they have continued to decrease through ¥4.10
mid-July. Feed costs have pulled back, primarily due to falling ¥4.00
prices for imported hay.
¥3.90
¥3.80
¥3.70
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec
5-Yr Avg Last Year This Year
Source: MOA, StoneX Calculations
China Retail and Farm Gate Price Changes China Feed Cost per Kg. of Milk (Yuan)
3.0% 25% ¥3.00
Farm Gate Milk Price, YoY Change
2.5% 20% ¥2.80

CPI, YoY Change
15% ¥2.60
2.0%
10%
1.5% ¥2.40
5%
1.0% ¥2.20
0%
¥2.00
0.5% -5%
¥1.80
0.0% -10%
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-18
Jun-23
¥1.60
¥1.40
CPI: Milk & Dairy Products Farm Gate Milk Price Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Source: CEIC, MOA, StoneX Calculations Source: MOA, GTT, StoneX Calculations
Our calculated gross margin for Chinese dairy farmers is still at a record low with milk prices still falling faster than feed costs.
There are mixed reports about milk production in China. China’s agricultural outlook committee has published numbers that
suggest very little slowdown in production, but other sources are showing production slowed from +9.2% in Q1 to just +1.8% in
April/May. There have also been news stories about more cows going to slaughter and the herd/production being down from
last year. Given that margins have been falling for 18 months we’re inclined to believe production growth is slowing down.
China Dairy Farm Gross Margin (Yuan/kg of milk) China Annual Change in Cow Milk Production
¥2.50 10.0%
¥2.30 8.0%
¥2.10 6.0%
4.0%
¥1.90
2.0%
¥1.70
0.0%
¥1.50
-2.0%
¥1.30
-4.0%
¥1.10 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 USDA StoneX
Source: MOA, GTT, StoneX Calculations Source: USDA PSD, BOABC, StoneX Estimates and Forecasts

August 2023
China - Demand Summary

China Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Chinese imports have been running well above de-

Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
pressed year-ago levels since February, primarily
24,000,000 4.5%
comprising of cheap product from New Zealand.
Milk Equivalent Imports (MT)

4.0%
However, Ireland did gain a little market share in June 22,000,000
3.5%
thanks to caseinates and a bump higher for infant 20,000,000 3.0%
Irish Share
formula. With domestic WMP production remaining 2.5%
18,000,000
strong and NZ prices low (and 0% tariff starting in 2.0%
January), the opportunities around WMP look limited. 16,000,000 1.5%
With limited domestic processing capacity for SMP 1.0%

14,000,000
0.5%
and butter, those look like bigger short-term opportu-
12,000,000 0.0%
nities, but prices will need to be competitive with NZ- Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22
origin product.
Irish Share Imports
China, Hong Kong, and Macao Dairy Import Summary (MT)

Jun-23 Import Shares (and shares 3, 6, 12 months prior)
12 Month YoY Other
Jun-23 YoY Change Total Change Ireland Other EU New Zealand US Countries
Milk Equivalent 1,591,234 15.9% 18,560,667 -8.3% 2.1% 25.2% 41.2% 19.1% 12.4%
2% 2% 2% 26% 27% 28% 42% 38% 33% 18% 18% 24% 13% 15% 13%
WMP 48,805 27.2% 502,765 -41.0% 0.0% 2.7% 89.2% 0.0% 8.1%
0% 1% 1% 4% 6% 6% 88% 81% 84% 0% 0% 0% 8% 12% 9%
SMP 28,839 18.3% 374,844 0.4% 0.8% 32.2% 34.1% 5.4% 27.5%
4% 3% 2% 22% 20% 23% 47% 37% 25% 8% 11% 18% 20% 30% 33%
Butter 8,780 28.8% 105,596 0.9% 0.2% 22.2% 76.7% 0.0% 0.8%
1% 0% 2% 10% 8% 27% 87% 89% 57% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 13%
AMF 3,363 -5.7% 36,992 15.7% 0.0% 4.1% 95.9% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 4% 5% 3% 95% 95% 96% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1%
Cheese 16,677 54.0% 169,864 -2.6% 0.2% 19.7% 65.0% 3.2% 11.9%
0% 0% 0% 14% 16% 27% 60% 64% 48% 5% 4% 5% 20% 16% 20%
Infant Formula 15,005 -36.8% 302,351 10.2% 8.6% 58.2% 28.9% 0.7% 3.6%
4% 6% 9% 69% 73% 64% 23% 17% 20% 0% 0% 1% 4% 4% 5%
Liquid Milk 155,421 12.5% 1,654,886 -16.9% 3.8% 49.4% 43.3% 0.0% 3.5%
2% 5% 4% 30% 34% 55% 57% 50% 27% 0% 0% 0% 11% 11% 15%
Yogurt 2,380 -19.1% 26,270 -31.2% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
0% 0% 0% 79% 76% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 23% 22%
MPC 445 16.2% 6,678 1.8% 0.0% 29.0% 68.7% 0.0% 2.2%
0% 0% 0% 56% 43% 68% 39% 32% 26% 2% 0% 4% 3% 25% 2%
Casein 1,933 58.7% 19,383 54.0% 7.1% 7.9% 69.4% 3.0% 12.6%
8% 5% 8% 4% 7% 1% 87% 88% 80% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 11%
Caseinates 2,520 116.8% 21,197 -5.1% 15.9% 30.7% 53.4% 0.0% 0.1%
2% 4% 9% 37% 56% 44% 61% 41% 38% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
Whey/WPC 52,285 1.9% 680,231 19.0% 4.0% 34.4% 1.4% 42.7% 17.4%
2% 3% 2% 33% 37% 33% 1% 0% 0% 45% 43% 56% 18% 16% 9%
WPI 4,355 37.5% 33,497 -2.5% 0.1% 33.6% 27.9% 37.0% 1.5%
0% 0% 0% 45% 55% 58% 23% 21% 10% 32% 20% 23% 0% 4% 10%
Lactose 20,028 92.7% 155,415 32.5% 0.0% 22.1% 4.5% 72.4% 1.0%
0% 0% 0% 18% 20% 14% 3% 4% 4% 78% 76% 82% 1% 0% 0%

August 2023
China - Import Prices

WMP Prices SMP Prices
(USD/MT, 6 Month Rolling Avg.) (USD/MT, 6 Month Rolling Avg.)
$5,700 $5,000
$5,200 $4,500
$4,700 $4,000
$4,200 $3,500
$3,700 $3,000
$3,200 $2,500
$2,700 $2,000
Feb-20
Feb-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
All Imports New Zealand Ireland Uruguay All Imports New Zealand Ireland U.S.
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations
Butter Prices Cheese Prices

$7,300 $6,800
$6,800 $6,300
$6,300
$5,800
$5,800
$5,300
$5,300
$4,800
$4,800
$4,300 $4,300
$3,800 $3,800
Feb-20
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
All Imports New Zealand Ireland Australia All Imports New Zealand Ireland U.S.

August 2023
Southeast Asia Macroeconomic Indicators

On a dairy trade-weighted basis, currencies in the region have Southeast Asia Currency Index
trended lower against the U.S. dollar since February, but did (Higher Index = Stronger Currency, Weighted by Dairy Imports)
105
bounce a little higher during July. The Japanese Yen has been 103
the weakest in the region over the past year. 101
99
97
95
Only Singapore and South Korea have reported their second 93
quarter GDP numbers so far and both were up less than 1% 91

89
from last year. The IMF updated their GDP forecasts in late 87
July and added 0.1% to the forecast for the ASEAN-5, but that 85
would still only result in 4.6%, which is a slowdown from 5.5%
in 2022. Source: ECB, FRED, GTT, StoneX Calculations
Southeast Asia Currency Indices Southeast Asia Currency Indices

(Higher Index = Stronger Currency) (Higher Index = Stronger Currency)
110 110
105
105
100
95 100
90
85 95
80
90
75
70 85
Japan South Korea Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam

Source: ECB, FRED, GTT, StoneX Calculations Source: ECB, FRED, GTT, StoneX Calculations
Real GDP Growth (YoY %)

2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2 2022-Q3 2022-Q4 2023-Q1 2023-Q2 2023-Q3 2023-Q4
Indonesia -0.7 7.1 3.5 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.0 5.0
Japan -1.1 7.8 1.7 1.0 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.4 1.8
Malaysia -0.2 16.2 -4.2 3.6 4.8 8.8 14.1 7.1 5.6
Philippines -3.8 12.0 7.0 7.9 8.0 7.5 7.7 7.1 6.4
Singapore 3.9 17.3 8.7 6.6 4.0 4.5 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.7
South Korea 2.4 6.5 4.2 4.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 1.3 1.0 0.8
Thailand -2.5 7.7 -0.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 4.6 1.4 2.7
Source: CEIC
Real GDP Relative to Comparable Period in 2019

25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Thailand
Source: CEIC, StoneX Calculations

August 2023
Southeast Asia Demand Summary

Southeast Asia Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
Vietnam
Regional imports remain weak. Economic Share of Regional Imports Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
growth is also weak as the region’s export Indonesia 19.8% 23,000,000 3.0%

22,500,000 2.8%
Japan 14.3%
oriented economies suffer with declining ex- 22,000,000
21,500,000
2.6%
Malaysia 13.3%
Irish Share
2.4%
ports to the U.S. and EU. The relatively low 21,000,000
Philippines 15.4% 20,500,000 2.2%
dairy prices should result in stronger imports Singapore 7.9%
20,000,000 2.0%
19,500,000
1.8%
as buyers stock pile some cheap product, but South Korea 9.8% 19,000,000
18,500,000 1.6%
that demand has been slow to develop. Thailand 10.2% 18,000,000 1.4%
Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22
Vietnam 9.3%
Irish Share Imports
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations and Estimates
Southeast Asia Dairy Import Summary (MT)

May-23 Import Shares (and shares 3, 6, 12 months prior)
12 Month YoY Other
May-23 YoY Change Total Change Ireland Other EU New Zealand US Countries
Milk Equivalent 1,611,753 -13.0% 19,573,107 -6.3% 2.4% 23.5% 28.1% 26.7% 19.3%
3% 3% 2% 19% 21% 22% 37% 30% 27% 25% 27% 29% 17% 20% 20%
WMP 24,016 -23.1% 311,460 0.4% 0.1% 5.3% 88.4% 0.2% 6.0%
0% 0% 0% 3% 4% 3% 92% 90% 85% 1% 1% 1% 5% 5% 11%
SMP 62,416 -13.2% 711,034 -11.2% 3.8% 20.2% 25.3% 41.2% 9.5%
4% 3% 2% 13% 20% 18% 43% 30% 23% 32% 33% 46% 9% 13% 12%
Butter 8,287 7.3% 89,662 5.0% 0.5% 34.9% 57.1% 0.7% 6.8%
0% 0% 0% 22% 26% 40% 72% 66% 50% 1% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4%
AMF 5,279 -13.7% 59,678 -12.0% 0.0% 4.7% 83.1% 0.8% 11.4%
0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 3% 87% 82% 82% 0% 0% 0% 12% 13% 14%
Cheese 48,054 -2.6% 571,171 -5.6% 2.4% 33.0% 27.2% 17.5% 19.9%
1% 4% 4% 26% 29% 30% 27% 23% 26% 23% 22% 21% 22% 22% 19%
Infant Formula 9,575 -21.9% 138,853 -5.7% 7.5% 14.0% 2.0% 0.2% 76.3%
4% 2% 7% 9% 8% 11% 5% 8% 3% 0% 0% 0% 82% 81% 79%
Liquid Milk 70,232 4.3% 699,258 5.4% 0.7% 56.5% 15.4% 0.1% 27.2%
1% 0% 1% 49% 50% 43% 17% 19% 18% 0% 0% 1% 33% 30% 37%
Yogurt 4,356 24.4% 44,672 13.4% 0.2% 13.3% 0.1% 2.7% 83.8%
0% 0% 0% 12% 14% 16% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3% 85% 84% 80%
MPC 5,577 -12.5% 82,536 2.3% 2.4% 70.1% 9.1% 11.2% 7.3%
1% 1% 2% 63% 54% 61% 10% 10% 10% 17% 26% 20% 9% 9% 7%
Casein 1,380 -5.4% 18,212 -0.4% 1.6% 13.3% 65.6% 2.7% 16.8%
11% 13% 11% 16% 20% 13% 57% 48% 66% 4% 3% 4% 12% 16% 6%
Caseinates 2,327 -20.5% 32,396 -7.5% 6.7% 43.1% 44.6% 1.3% 4.3%
6% 1% 3% 43% 42% 42% 42% 53% 48% 2% 1% 3% 6% 3% 4%
Whey/WPC 42,326 -13.8% 519,906 -9.3% 2.5% 49.0% 2.0% 28.4% 18.2%
5% 5% 1% 47% 48% 50% 4% 3% 3% 26% 30% 28% 17% 14% 18%
WPI 3,371 -18.4% 43,525 -18.4% 0.1% 35.7% 12.7% 48.5% 3.0%
2% 0% 3% 25% 32% 24% 17% 12% 15% 53% 52% 51% 4% 4% 6%
Lactose 20,153 -12.4% 249,377 4.2% 0.0% 31.1% 8.4% 57.1% 3.4%
0% 0% 0% 31% 25% 31% 5% 5% 6% 61% 66% 60% 3% 3% 4%

August 2023
Indonesia
Indonesia Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Indonesia is still trying to rebalance after foot and

mouth hit the dairy industry in the second quarter of
4,700,000 3.0%
last year and imports spiked higher to fill in for weak

4,500,000
2.5%
domestic milk production. Inventories of dairy prod- 4,300,000
4,100,000
ucts likely built up in the second half of 2022, but 2.0%
Irish Share
3,900,000
weak imports since then have likely allowed inventory 3,700,000 1.5%
to be pulled down. The best short-term opportunities 3,500,000
3,300,000 1.0%
look like SMP, cheese and casein/caseinates, although
3,100,000 0.5%
given the very strong imports of caseinates last year it 2,900,000
might be hard to grow year-over-year. 2,700,000 0.0%
Irish Share Imports

Indonesia Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 367,430 -1.6% 4,128,267 -0.5% 2.4% 26.8% 33.7% 27.9% 9.2%
1% 2% 0% 18% 24% 26% 47% 37% 32% 24% 24% 29% 10% 14% 13%
WMP 8,361 -3.1% 93,856 27.9% 0.0% 2.6% 97.3% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% 100% 96% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1%
SMP 17,867 4.7% 203,520 0.6% 3.2% 9.6% 30.9% 48.4% 7.8%
1% 1% 0% 6% 12% 20% 48% 37% 26% 33% 31% 39% 12% 18% 16%
Butter 1,342 -16.3% 17,078 7.3% 0.0% 28.9% 65.5% 0.0% 5.5%
0% 0% 0% 2% 15% 40% 94% 81% 60% 0% 0% 0% 4% 4% 0%
AMF 561 -24.6% 9,499 22.9% 0.0% 38.7% 61.2% 0.0% 0.1%
0% 0% 0% 19% 20% 14% 79% 80% 36% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 50%
Cheese 2,530 -13.2% 28,400 -14.5% 1.9% 19.0% 41.3% 17.7% 20.1%
0% 0% 0% 4% 15% 15% 49% 31% 48% 27% 17% 21% 20% 37% 15%
Infant Formula 969 -32.3% 15,126 12.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%
Liquid Milk 1,552 -25.5% 17,188 -1.8% 0.0% 38.4% 48.8% 0.0% 12.7%
0% 0% 0% 3% 42% 38% 97% 48% 52% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 11%
Yogurt 30 -62.7% 324 -41.8% 13.4% 81.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4%

0% 11% 0% 0% 67% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 22% 1%
MPC 244 -52.7% 8,758 100.8% 0.0% 0.0% 34.4% 65.6% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 100% 99% 85% 0% 0% 15%
Casein 92 -67.1% 2,486 -21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 9% 100% 89% 91% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Caseinates 559 22.4% 6,850 -1.2% 23.5% 16.8% 44.0% 0.0% 15.7%
7% 0% 14% 24% 70% 22% 45% 19% 49% 0% 0% 0% 24% 11% 14%
Whey/WPC 12,392 28.5% 120,906 -15.6% 2.0% 62.0% 0.0% 23.7% 12.2%
5% 6% 0% 58% 64% 55% 8% 0% 1% 17% 21% 30% 11% 9% 13%
WPI 211 8.5% 1,654 36.9% 0.0% 2.6% 4.0% 71.4% 22.0%
0% 0% 0% 17% 9% 27% 6% 5% 0% 63% 80% 61% 14% 6% 12%
Lactose 3,830 -41.0% 45,089 -10.6% 0.0% 50.3% 7.0% 35.7% 7.0%
0% 0% 0% 36% 43% 40% 1% 0% 1% 59% 55% 55% 4% 2% 4%
The greener a column is, the more market share that supplier is capturing.

August 2023
Japan
Japan Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
The Japanese market is still rebalancing from an over- Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
supply last year and early this year. YTD milk produc- 3,400,000 3.5%
tion is down 4.3% through June and we’re starting to

3,300,000 3.0%
see some stabilisation for butter and cheese imports. 3,200,000
2.5%
Japan has also been bringing in more WMP than usual 3,100,000
Irish Share
3,000,000 2.0%
partly due to cheap prices in NZ while SMP imports
2,900,000 1.5%
have been trending lower. With the value of solids in 2,800,000
1.0%
WMP coming back into better alignment with the 2,700,000
0.5%
value of solids in SMP/butter, we might see a little 2,600,000
2,500,000 0.0%
more interest in SMP/butter and likely for cheese as
well.
Irish Share Imports
Japan Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 224,611 -5.1% 2,980,932 -1.5% 2.0% 33.3% 23.6% 25.8% 15.2%
2% 3% 4% 31% 28% 32% 23% 22% 21% 29% 32% 27% 16% 15% 16%
WMP 272 120.0% 3,626 57.4% 0.0% 34.2% 65.8% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 6% 13% 19% 94% 86% 62% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 20%
SMP 643 -54.5% 13,751 -33.1% 0.0% 12.5% 38.7% 0.2% 48.6%
0% 0% 0% 2% 9% 20% 90% 62% 37% 0% 14% 19% 7% 14% 23%
Butter 1,538 143.8% 11,678 22.2% 0.0% 27.6% 61.2% 0.0% 11.3%
0% 0% 0% 13% 35% 34% 85% 60% 66% 0% 5% 0% 2% 0% 0%
AMF 13 -12.5% 385 -3.2% 0.0% 9.5% 12.5% 0.0% 78.0%

0% 0% 0% 10% 1% 6% 31% 95% 13% 0% 0% 0% 60% 5% 81%
Cheese 21,308 -0.5% 263,572 -7.3% 4.3% 31.9% 26.8% 14.7% 22.3%
3% 7% 8% 27% 33% 32% 25% 21% 26% 16% 16% 14% 30% 22% 20%
Infant Formula 0 0.0% 1 -40.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Liquid Milk 12 -59.0% 229 -24.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 92% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Yogurt 0 -100.0% 17 170.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 24% 0% 20% 76% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MPC 297 -25.8% 9,498 -4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.8% 57.2%
0% 0% 0% 27% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 22% 30% 23% 49% 70% 77%
Casein 566 75.5% 5,130 9.9% 0.0% 12.6% 87.4% 0.0% 0.0%
21% 0% 20% 31% 28% 7% 48% 72% 73% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Caseinates 628 -29.8% 9,257 3.0% 0.0% 32.3% 67.7% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 37% 28% 39% 63% 71% 60% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 3,465 -20.1% 50,549 -3.8% 0.2% 41.2% 9.4% 33.1% 16.1%
0% 0% 0% 47% 29% 39% 14% 19% 8% 27% 34% 33% 12% 18% 20%
WPI 2,388 14.5% 29,110 -0.9% 0.0% 40.3% 13.6% 44.4% 1.7%
1% 0% 1% 32% 36% 27% 19% 12% 25% 45% 48% 39% 3% 5% 9%
Lactose 6,399 -13.6% 93,612 16.9% 0.0% 36.3% 8.0% 52.8% 3.0%
0% 0% 0% 36% 24% 34% 6% 8% 7% 55% 63% 53% 3% 6% 6%

August 2023
Malaysia
Malaysia Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Malaysia’s dairy imports continue to trend sharply Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
lower, driven largely by SMP. On a 12-month rolling
3,200,000 8.0%
basis, SMP imports are hitting multi-year lows and

3,100,000 7.0%
inventories in the country are likely on the light side
6.0%
while Ireland has been gaining share despite total 3,000,000
Irish Share
5.0%
imports falling. The Malaysian government makes 2,900,000
4.0%
periodic pushes for more self-sufficiency in milk pro- 2,800,000
3.0%
duction and they haven’t historically been successful. 2,700,000
2.0%
But they started another push in late 2019, and given
2,600,000 1.0%
how weak imports are running, stronger domestic
2,500,000 0.0%
production may be limiting the demand for imports. Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22
Short-term, cheese and whey look like opportunities.
Irish Share Imports
Malaysia Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 240,117 -14.7% 2,779,156 -11.2% 5.9% 27.3% 31.5% 12.0% 23.3%
6% 3% 3% 16% 30% 29% 41% 27% 31% 13% 10% 19% 23% 29% 18%
WMP 3,481 -23.5% 44,627 6.0% 0.0% 1.1% 98.2% 0.0% 0.6%
0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 98% 90% 95% 0% 5% 0% 1% 5% 2%
SMP 9,242 -25.3% 104,930 -20.5% 11.5% 25.6% 30.4% 17.2% 15.3%
7% 7% 3% 15% 26% 17% 43% 10% 29% 34% 26% 46% 0% 31% 5%
Butter 1,266 24.9% 10,737 -3.3% 0.8% 29.4% 61.2% 0.0% 8.5%
1% 0% 1% 12% 21% 43% 84% 78% 52% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 4%
AMF 772 -37.0% 9,963 -12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 87.4% 0.0% 12.6%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 90% 100% 90% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 6%
Cheese 2,946 3.7% 30,751 -19.3% 1.0% 22.8% 37.9% 6.4% 31.9%
1% 7% 2% 15% 19% 17% 26% 39% 36% 18% 4% 6% 40% 31% 39%
Infant Formula 5,546 -2.8% 80,737 2.3% 0.0% 10.4% 0.9% 0.3% 88.4%
0% 0% 0% 5% 3% 7% 1% 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 95% 84% 91%
Liquid Milk 8,923 -27.9% 122,956 -12.4% 0.0% 30.3% 21.6% 0.0% 48.0%
0% 0% 0% 18% 23% 16% 26% 35% 23% 0% 0% 6% 55% 42% 55%
Yogurt 144 11.4% 1,466 -10.4% 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.9% 82.0%
0% 0% 0% 12% 29% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 87% 70% 68%
MPC 281 0.3% 2,594 -17.2% 0.0% 5.1% 23.6% 64.7% 6.6%
0% 0% 0% 94% 81% 41% 5% 2% 1% 1% 17% 57% 0% 0% 0%
Casein 105 -50.3% 2,479 1.5% 0.0% 1.2% 27.7% 0.0% 71.1%
10% 41% 35% 5% 9% 12% 76% 41% 36% 0% 0% 0% 9% 10% 17%
Caseinates 68 21.5% 1,616 -22.4% 0.0% 97.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3%

24% 30% 0% 76% 67% 95% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
Whey/WPC 7,577 -9.9% 79,909 -14.7% 9.6% 49.6% 5.6% 22.1% 13.0%
24% 3% 6% 48% 71% 77% 2% 5% 4% 20% 13% 8% 6% 8% 6%
WPI 19 -74.3% 388 -45.5% 0.0% 14.9% 85.1% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 7% 50% 98% 13% 0% 0% 27% 49% 1% 54%
Lactose 320 -36.1% 4,574 -9.6% 0.0% 3.2% 34.9% 61.8% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 42% 49% 3% 35% 0% 22% 23% 51% 75% 1% 0% 0%

August 2023
Philippines
Philippines Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Imports remained weak in April and May. Inflation in the

country has been cooling, but higher energy prices and
3,800,000 4.5%
grain prices risk adding some inflation back and the cen-

4.0%
3,600,000
tral bank has kept rates high. Underlying consumption 3.5%
looks OK, but consumers are feeling some pain from the 3,400,000 3.0%
Irish Share
inflation. SMP imports have hit low levels and stocks 2.5%
3,200,000
2.0%
have likely been drawn down. Ireland has made some
3,000,000 1.5%
longer-term gains in SMP market share and should be
1.0%
able to make some sales. IMF imports from Ireland re- 2,800,000
0.5%
main very strong despite total IMF imports still trending 2,600,000 0.0%
lower. Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22
Irish Share Imports

Philippines Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 254,584 -21.5% 3,203,839 -6.8% 1.7% 21.9% 18.1% 42.5% 15.7%
4% 5% 4% 17% 20% 23% 25% 21% 16% 35% 39% 41% 19% 15% 17%
WMP 734 -2.8% 9,906 -30.9% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2% 0.0% 57.8%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 73% 70% 75% 0% 0% 0% 27% 30% 21%
SMP 11,248 -41.6% 164,244 -17.0% 1.5% 13.0% 9.7% 68.2% 7.7%
5% 4% 5% 10% 19% 16% 10% 12% 5% 58% 54% 64% 18% 11% 10%
Butter 495 -31.4% 7,404 9.5% 0.0% 20.3% 67.7% 0.0% 12.0%
0% 0% 0% 13% 13% 13% 76% 75% 71% 0% 0% 0% 12% 12% 16%
AMF 1,953 -17.7% 18,568 -18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 94.6% 0.0% 5.4%
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 93% 93% 93% 0% 0% 0% 7% 6% 6%
Cheese 4,748 4.5% 52,273 9.9% 0.0% 23.5% 41.6% 8.5% 26.4%
0% 0% 0% 18% 20% 21% 44% 30% 36% 16% 20% 14% 22% 30% 29%
Infant Formula 1,107 -38.6% 14,205 -16.4% 46.1% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 30.7%
39% 21% 37% 11% 12% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 49%
Liquid Milk 11,707 1.9% 132,629 11.6% 0.0% 69.7% 17.4% 0.6% 12.2%
0% 0% 0% 57% 51% 51% 23% 23% 17% 1% 0% 0% 20% 26% 31%
Yogurt 1,490 38.5% 16,648 24.3% 0.0% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 77.9%
0% 0% 0% 19% 22% 27% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 81% 78% 73%
MPC 243 123.2% 3,688 25.0% 0.0% 4.4% 71.6% 24.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 17% 53% 0% 60% 42% 56% 24% 4% 5% 0%
Casein 172 -35.7% 3,848 36.3% 0.0% 13.0% 15.1% 0.0% 71.9%
0% 5% 9% 30% 29% 8% 17% 21% 76% 0% 0% 0% 53% 45% 6%
Caseinates 262 24.7% 1,651 -7.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 5,049 -32.3% 74,512 -1.5% 1.0% 21.8% 0.0% 40.8% 36.5%
5% 14% 0% 22% 19% 33% 0% 0% 0% 41% 47% 35% 32% 20% 32%
WPI 51 90.4% 296 81.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 2,559 31.7% 23,491 -6.5% 0.0% 21.9% 4.7% 71.8% 1.6%
0% 0% 0% 33% 3% 32% 0% 7% 3% 67% 89% 64% 0% 1% 0%

August 2023
Singapore
Singapore Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Imports have continued to trend lower, down 24.2% Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
YoY in June. The economy looks like it skirted a reces- 1,950,000 6.0%
sion in Q2, but economic growth remains weak and

1,900,000 5.0%
uncertain. SMP imports are at multi-year lows, but
1,850,000
Ireland picked up market share in June and there is 4.0%
Irish Share
1,800,000
opportunity as total import volume is expected to 3.0%
1,750,000
improve. While total volumes remain small, Ireland 2.0%
1,700,000
has also picked up some market share in butter. On
1,650,000 1.0%
the flip-side, imports of Irish cheese have been falling
and losing market share. Given competitive prices, 1,600,000 0.0%
Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
this could turn around when demand improves.
Irish Share Imports
Singapore Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 127,758 -24.2% 1,642,334 -11.8% 5.3% 22.6% 37.0% 12.6% 22.5%
3% 7% 2% 27% 22% 16% 34% 31% 35% 16% 12% 21% 20% 29% 27%
WMP 4,284 -19.6% 53,629 -7.3% 0.7% 21.7% 74.4% 0.7% 2.6%
1% 0% 1% 23% 19% 9% 60% 58% 67% 1% 0% 1% 15% 22% 21%
SMP 3,560 -15.2% 53,545 -15.2% 14.3% 20.3% 43.7% 18.6% 3.1%
6% 22% 2% 21% 18% 19% 54% 28% 26% 10% 8% 25% 9% 24% 27%
Butter 704 -17.4% 12,602 -5.9% 8.4% 47.8% 29.8% 0.7% 13.4%
0% 0% 3% 37% 43% 36% 53% 45% 42% 0% 0% 2% 10% 12% 18%
AMF 183 -13.7% 3,498 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 0.0% 69.7%
0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 55% 73% 59% 0% 0% 0% 45% 25% 41%
Cheese 1,401 -12.2% 16,032 -10.0% 3.9% 32.8% 15.3% 9.4% 38.6%
0% 0% 9% 33% 28% 28% 19% 24% 9% 7% 9% 5% 41% 39% 49%
Infant Formula 82 -11.6% 1,031 -13.4% 23.0% 11.3% 4.6% 1.1% 60.0%
16% 0% 33% 24% 25% 14% 8% 0% 0% 5% 8% 5% 49% 68% 47%
Liquid Milk 10,722 -7.4% 139,932 5.8% 0.0% 19.8% 3.4% 0.1% 76.8%
1% 1% 1% 27% 19% 22% 6% 15% 3% 0% 0% 0% 66% 65% 74%
Yogurt 941 5.7% 10,355 2.6% 0.1% 10.7% 0.2% 0.1% 89.0%
0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 90% 94% 87%
MPC 383 -11.8% 4,947 -23.5% 0.0% 0.7% 90.4% 0.5% 8.4%
8% 5% 3% 0% 0% 10% 65% 85% 47% 8% 0% 30% 18% 9% 10%
Casein 0 -70.0% 313 656.1% 0.0% 11.1% 22.2% 44.4% 22.2%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 3% 0% 0% 27% 100% 0% 70%
Caseinates 431 29.1% 2,639 6.5% 0.0% 27.3% 72.7% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 74% 23% 35% 26% 77% 65% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 2,293 -17.1% 24,446 -13.7% 11.2% 33.4% 5.8% 7.2% 42.3%
5% 1% 2% 48% 28% 26% 4% 3% 1% 17% 15% 26% 26% 53% 45%
WPI 400 -20.0% 3,183 -71.8% 0.0% 18.6% 7.6% 47.6% 26.2%
0% 16% 4% 19% 76% 15% 0% 0% 0% 79% 7% 81% 2% 0% 0%
Lactose 1,318 -68.2% 20,929 -6.1% 0.0% 10.8% 12.2% 77.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 28% 7% 6% 0% 0% 46% 72% 91% 48% 0% 2% 0%

August 2023
South Korea
South Korea Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
South Korea’s economy grew a little faster than ex- Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
pected in the second quarter and it looks like they will
2,300,000 1.0%
slip through without a technical recession. But dairy

0.9%
2,200,000
imports have continued to be the weakest in nearly 2 0.8%
2,100,000 0.7%
years, driven largely by MPC, SMP and whey. Imports
Irish Share
2,000,000 0.6%
of Irish cheese have been trending higher despite 0.5%
1,900,000 0.4%
total cheese imports trending lower. Imports of fluid
1,800,000 0.3%
milk have consistently trending higher despite the 0.2%
1,700,000
weakness in other products. Total casein imports 0.1%
have been very weak, but Ireland has gained market 1,600,000 0.0%
Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
share.
Irish Share Imports
South Korea Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 166,237 -16.6% 2,050,455 -6.5% 1.3% 55.5% 11.5% 25.7% 6.0%
1% 1% 0% 53% 53% 54% 14% 12% 9% 24% 27% 29% 8% 8% 8%
WMP 632 43.0% 5,845 5.3% 0.0% 56.1% 43.9% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 46% 47% 10% 52% 46% 68% 3% 6% 22% 0% 0% 0%
SMP 847 -31.2% 10,354 -27.6% 0.0% 17.1% 4.5% 55.3% 23.0%
0% 0% 0% 65% 34% 42% 4% 6% 15% 29% 56% 16% 2% 3% 27%
Butter 2,001 0.6% 22,794 1.2% 0.0% 55.3% 37.4% 7.2% 0.1%
0% 0% 0% 61% 52% 53% 36% 21% 30% 3% 28% 17% 0% 0% 0%
AMF 67 12.0% 493 -24.4% 0.0% 56.5% 0.0% 33.7% 9.8%

0% 0% 0% 40% 7% 76% 0% 0% 0% 51% 93% 22% 10% 0% 2%
Cheese 10,041 -13.8% 146,993 -3.0% 1.7% 37.0% 18.0% 36.6% 6.7%
1% 1% 0% 35% 39% 30% 22% 17% 8% 36% 31% 55% 6% 12% 7%
Infant Formula 458 -24.1% 5,642 2.6% 6.3% 84.5% 7.8% 0.7% 0.6%
14% 2% 0% 46% 76% 50% 17% 21% 47% 1% 1% 1% 22% 1% 3%
Liquid Milk 16,809 56.7% 220,489 19.0% 0.0% 82.7% 5.4% 0.0% 11.9%
0% 0% 0% 83% 95% 94% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 16% 3% 5%
Yogurt 142 -4.3% 1,835 -6.9% 0.0% 26.3% 0.0% 73.6% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 33% 27% 37% 0% 0% 0% 67% 72% 61% 0% 0% 1%
MPC 4,077 -37.2% 44,634 -15.9% 0.0% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
0% 0% 0% 100% 98% 97% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Casein 356 -7.3% 3,274 -19.7% 30.9% 19.1% 44.9% 5.1% 0.0%
38% 29% 16% 12% 29% 52% 38% 23% 8% 0% 19% 19% 13% 1% 6%
Caseinates 289 -61.8% 4,213 -36.2% 7.6% 77.1% 13.5% 0.0% 1.7%
0% 0% 0% 61% 41% 40% 18% 56% 47% 13% 3% 10% 9% 0% 3%
Whey/WPC 2,954 -18.2% 34,246 -9.9% 0.7% 40.1% 0.2% 44.8% 14.3%
1% 0% 1% 41% 39% 41% 0% 1% 0% 34% 35% 30% 25% 25% 28%
WPI 511 -38.9% 6,036 -17.6% 0.0% 23.3% 5.9% 70.8% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 27% 47% 13% 19% 13% 13% 54% 40% 74% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 1,825 5.1% 18,576 0.7% 0.0% 46.4% 1.4% 52.2% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 33% 29% 43% 11% 1% 0% 55% 66% 56% 1% 4% 0%

August 2023
Thailand
Thailand Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Thailand’s dairy imports are weak, but haven’t Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
dropped as much as other SEA countries. SMP im-
2,400,000 3.0%
ports look like they have turned the corner and Ire-

2,300,000 2.5%
land has been gaining market share. Imports of Irish
2,200,000
cheese moved higher in Q1, but have dropped off 2.0%
Irish Share
2,100,000
again. Demand for MPC and casein looks good and 1.5%
2,000,000
should be an opportunity and as could be the case for 1.0%
1,900,000
sweet whey as well.
1,800,000 0.5%
1,700,000 0.0%
Irish Share Imports

Thailand Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 213,503 -6.1% 2,122,575 -6.5% 1.0% 30.9% 38.4% 19.5% 10.2%
2% 3% 0% 20% 33% 23% 52% 41% 46% 18% 12% 16% 8% 11% 15%
WMP 5,861 -33.0% 65,510 -11.6% 0.0% 0.7% 90.2% 0.0% 9.1%
0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 96% 93% 79% 0% 0% 0% 3% 6% 20%
SMP 8,711 19.5% 66,730 -4.9% 3.0% 34.3% 35.8% 20.8% 6.2%
6% 4% 0% 7% 53% 17% 53% 36% 45% 27% 4% 28% 7% 3% 10%
Butter 348 -21.1% 3,038 -6.5% 0.0% 24.3% 74.7% 0.0% 1.0%
0% 0% 0% 38% 19% 54% 61% 81% 45% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
AMF 1,141 12.0% 10,053 -10.0% 0.0% 1.9% 76.6% 0.9% 20.6%
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 79% 62% 79% 0% 0% 2% 20% 36% 18%
Cheese 2,177 14.0% 18,887 -4.6% 0.0% 26.0% 34.4% 8.6% 30.9%
1% 0% 0% 15% 22% 30% 44% 43% 37% 4% 5% 6% 37% 30% 27%
Infant Formula 257 -66.3% 4,228 -47.5% 0.0% 4.3% 11.1% 0.0% 84.5%
0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 1% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 95% 96% 94%
Liquid Milk 1,875 -16.0% 15,391 4.8% 0.0% 35.0% 52.3% 0.0% 12.7%
0% 0% 0% 18% 42% 21% 72% 54% 78% 0% 0% 0% 10% 3% 1%
Yogurt 110 43.7% 1,197 -0.5% 1.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 90.9%
0% 0% 1% 6% 25% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 94% 75% 94%
MPC 547 110.1% 3,761 18.2% 0.0% 83.0% 8.4% 8.6% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 76% 83% 69% 24% 0% 17% 0% 17% 14% 0% 0% 0%
Casein 61 1048.2% 389 18.1% 3.3% 45.9% 0.0% 0.0% 50.8%

5% 0% 0% 1% 58% 19% 0% 0% 58% 0% 0% 0% 94% 42% 23%
Caseinates 214 -59.1% 5,167 -7.5% 11.7% 47.7% 35.9% 0.0% 4.8%
13% 0% 0% 52% 24% 27% 33% 70% 66% 0% 0% 3% 2% 6% 4%
Whey/WPC 6,562 9.1% 69,893 -4.5% 0.0% 55.8% 0.0% 32.8% 11.4%
1% 6% 0% 64% 51% 63% 0% 1% 4% 24% 27% 22% 11% 16% 11%
WPI 49 -77.7% 1,360 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 75.9% 0.4%

0% 0% 7% 4% 38% 7% 11% 11% 5% 85% 52% 76% 0% 0% 5%
Lactose 2,495 23.9% 24,167 10.6% 0.0% 31.3% 9.9% 53.8% 5.0%
0% 0% 0% 21% 48% 29% 8% 8% 13% 63% 42% 54% 8% 1% 4%

August 2023
Vietnam
Vietnam Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Vietnamese milk equivalent imports have took anoth- Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
er step lower with imports down 26.1% from last year
2,500,000 3.0%
in May. Economic growth was weaker than expected

2,400,000
2,300,000 2.5%
in the first half of the year but the government cut
2,200,000 2.0%
taxes and fees as well as interest rates during June to
Irish Share
2,100,000
try and boost the economy. SMP imports have 2,000,000 1.5%
flattened out and there should be some room for Ire- 1,900,000
1,800,000 1.0%
land to take market share. Total cheese imports are 1,700,000 0.5%
still falling a little, but Ireland is taking share. 1,600,000
1,500,000 0.0%
Irish Share Imports

Vietnam Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 143,051 -26.1% 1,927,500 -10.8% 0.8% 27.7% 24.5% 34.0% 12.9%
0% 0% 1% 29% 23% 19% 41% 36% 23% 20% 31% 39% 9% 9% 18%
WMP 2,782 -7.1% 33,607 -20.1% 0.0% 0.7% 90.3% 0.0% 9.0%
0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 1% 90% 97% 94% 2% 0% 0% 7% 0% 5%
SMP 9,051 -1.2% 92,937 -7.4% 0.0% 28.3% 9.3% 56.6% 5.8%
0% 0% 0% 28% 17% 12% 60% 41% 18% 10% 42% 56% 1% 0% 14%
Butter 269 -17.8% 4,196 23.7% 0.0% 17.0% 78.0% 0.0% 5.0%
0% 0% 0% 8% 7% 17% 82% 91% 77% 0% 0% 0% 9% 2% 6%
AMF 461 -19.9% 7,197 -31.7% 0.0% 0.2% 87.2% 0.0% 12.5%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 89% 23% 93% 0% 0% 0% 11% 77% 7%
Cheese 1,166 -20.6% 12,456 2.1% 4.1% 42.9% 32.1% 3.2% 17.6%
0% 0% 6% 43% 21% 31% 23% 44% 24% 0% 2% 2% 34% 34% 36%
Infant Formula 1,112 -43.2% 17,727 -23.1% 10.6% 12.5% 1.9% 0.0% 75.0%
7% 3% 8% 16% 22% 15% 7% 3% 5% 2% 2% 0% 68% 70% 72%
Liquid Milk 6,482 -38.1% 55,664 2.1% 5.9% 44.7% 40.6% 0.1% 8.6%
8% 3% 5% 39% 22% 21% 42% 42% 24% 1% 1% 0% 10% 33% 50%
Yogurt 1,453 30.3% 12,874 24.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 99.8%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%
MPC 144 -59.8% 2,190 42.8% 0.0% 4.2% 24.7% 0.0% 71.1%
0% 0% 0% 0% 82% 5% 13% 18% 5% 85% 0% 90% 2% 0% 0%
Casein 10 -88.0% 267 -57.9% 0.0% 96.2% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 55% 0% 9% 0% 0% 60% 6% 0% 1% 39% 100% 31%
Caseinates 43 12.5% 633 -41.0% 0.0% 57.9% 40.9% 0.0% 1.2%

0% 0% 0% 100% 95% 0% 0% 5% 38% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 62%
Whey/WPC 2,426 -55.9% 64,316 -6.2% 0.0% 54.6% 0.8% 32.1% 12.6%
0% 0% 0% 50% 49% 43% 0% 0% 0% 36% 42% 50% 14% 9% 7%
WPI 93 -35.9% 1,073 -36.2% 0.0% 50.7% 1.1% 36.2% 11.9%

0% 0% 0% 68% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 32% 100% 86% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 587 -71.3% 16,204 -13.0% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 82.5% 1.7%
0% 0% 0% 21% 34% 16% 0% 0% 0% 77% 66% 84% 2% 0% 0%

August 2023
Middle East & North Africa Macroeconomic Indicators

Crude oil prices have been range-bound since last September Brent Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
trading between $70 - $90. The global economy has weak-
$130
ened, which has reduced demand, but production has also
$110
been cut. With the U.S. economy possibly looking at a soft
landing and the Chinese government trying to stimulate their $90
economy, some traders have become more bullish on the $70

outlook for energy.
$50
$30
Regional currencies have been roughly flat over the past three
$10
months, although the Moroccan Dirham has strengthened
against the US dollar a little.
Source: FRED
Middle East/North Africa Currency Index Middle East/North Africa Currency Indices
(Higher Index = Stronger Currency, Weighted by Dairy Imports) (Higher Index = Stronger Currency)
102.0 120
110
100.0
100
98.0
90
96.0
80
94.0 70
92.0 60
50
90.0
Algeria Egypt Morocco Kuwait

Source: ECB, FRED, GTT, StoneX Calculations Source: ECB, FRED, GTT, StoneX Calculations
Real GDP Growth (YoY %)

2020-Q1 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2 2022-Q3 2022-Q4
Algeria -3.5 -10.2 -5.4 -1.4 1.3 6.5 2.9 3.2 2.4 2.9 3.7 3.8
Egypt 4.9 -0.9 0.3 1.7 2.8 8.3 9.3 8.1 5.4 3.7 4.0 3.9
Kuwait -2.5 -11.3 -9.9 -11.7
Morocco -0.8 -14.9 -7.5 -5.4 2.2 14.3 8.7 7.7 0.5 2.2 1.7 0.7
Saudi Arabia -1.3 -6.6 -4.9 -4.5 -2.3 3.4 6.3 8.6 10.1 11.0 8.4 5.8
UAE 3.8 -4.4 -5.2 -6.4 -4.7 5.2 6.7 9.1 8.3 8.4
Source: CEIC
Real GDP Relative to Comparable Period in 2019

16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Algeria Egypt Kuwait Morocco Saudi Arabia UAE
Source: CEIC, StoneX Calculations

August 2023
Middle East & North Africa Demand Summary

Middle East & North Africa Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
UAE
Algeria
Iraq
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
Morocco
Imports for the region remain mixed. Algeria Share of Regional Imports Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
is still stocking up at low prices. Egypt and UAE 15.8% 14,000,000 4.5%

13,500,000 4.0%
Algeria 28.1%
Iraq are suffering from foreign exchange 13,000,000 3.5%
Iraq 9.3% 3.0%
Irish Share
12,500,000
issues that are limiting imports. Imports for 2.5%
Kuwait 15.6% 12,000,000
2.0%
the rest of the region have been good, but 11,500,000
Saudi Arabia 4.8% 1.5%
they might be flattening out as economic Egypt 5.4%
11,000,000 1.0%
10,500,000 0.5%
growth slows a bit. Morocco 21.0% 10,000,000 0.0%
Source: GTT, StoneX Calculations
Irish Share Imports
Middle East & North Africa Dairy Import Summary (MT)

Apr-23 Import Shares (and shares 3, 6, 12 months prior)
12 Month YoY Other
Apr-23 YoY Change Total Change Ireland Other EU New Zealand US Countries
Milk Equivalent 1,147,253 14.6% 12,792,600 10.0% 2.4% 32.0% 31.9% 2.3% 31.4%
4% 4% 2% 26% 26% 24% 26% 23% 14% 2% 3% 4% 42% 45% 56%
WMP 44,166 34.6% 487,709 4.9% 0.7% 12.9% 73.0% 0.5% 12.8%
3% 0% 0% 5% 7% 8% 60% 59% 39% 1% 1% 5% 30% 33% 47%
SMP 44,289 29.8% 408,962 28.3% 2.0% 60.3% 19.8% 1.7% 16.2%
2% 7% 2% 71% 55% 44% 6% 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 20% 30% 50%
Butter 6,620 -37.8% 79,517 -22.1% 12.4% 31.5% 37.8% 1.0% 17.4%
4% 1% 2% 21% 32% 16% 47% 34% 31% 3% 0% 6% 25% 33% 44%
AMF 6,136 182.6% 38,962 5.9% 0.0% 22.0% 60.3% 0.0% 17.7%
3% 0% 0% 23% 16% 39% 39% 73% 20% 0% 0% 0% 34% 12% 41%
Cheese 39,095 -11.2% 566,573 11.1% 2.7% 38.4% 3.1% 4.7% 51.2%
4% 5% 3% 35% 33% 35% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% 53% 54% 53%
Infant Formula 10,089 22.9% 115,525 14.3% 9.6% 68.3% 0.9% 0.6% 20.6%
10% 6% 10% 62% 75% 63% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 26% 18% 24%
Liquid Milk 44,121 34.5% 487,533 4.9% 0.7% 12.9% 73.1% 0.5% 12.8%
3% 0% 0% 5% 7% 8% 60% 59% 39% 1% 1% 5% 30% 33% 47%
Yogurt 9,674 13.0% 96,852 7.6% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 97.8%
0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 97% 98% 98%
MPC 2,402 -38.7% 42,912 -0.8% 0.5% 55.1% 10.3% 20.3% 13.9%
0% 0% 0% 62% 54% 53% 19% 6% 1% 4% 15% 17% 16% 25% 30%
Casein 751 59.7% 8,162 28.0% 17.6% 54.5% 0.0% 2.6% 25.3%
50% 45% 19% 42% 55% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0%
Caseinates 122 -20.7% 922 -44.3% 0.0% 69.1% 0.0% 0.0% 30.9%
0% 0% 0% 75% 59% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 41% 80%
Whey/WPC 4,501 -14.6% 51,722 -9.5% 3.3% 61.6% 0.0% 13.8% 21.3%
5% 4% 1% 66% 57% 54% 0% 0% 0% 10% 17% 7% 20% 21% 38%
WPI 227 43.0% 3,537 -3.8% 0.0% 85.4% 9.9% 4.5% 0.1%
1% 11% 0% 49% 76% 28% 20% 13% 44% 30% 0% 12% 0% 0% 16%
Lactose 1,465 24.4% 14,516 19.8% 0.0% 82.0% 0.0% 9.3% 8.7%
0% 0% 0% 85% 90% 97% 0% 0% 0% 15% 10% 2% 1% 0% 1%

August 2023
Algeria
Algeria Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Algeria’s imports have remained strong, up 28.5% Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
from last year in May with Ireland generally gaining
3,900,000 7.0%
market share. On a 12-month rolling basis, SMP im-

3,700,000 6.0%
ports are at a record high. Algeria likes to stock up at
3,500,000 5.0%
low prices, but with imports already at record-high
Irish Share
3,300,000 4.0%
levels, and well above trend, we might see the buying
3,100,000 3.0%
cool, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few more
2,900,000 2.0%
tenders if prices stay low. WMP imports are not at a
record high and there might be a little opportunity 2,700,000 1.0%
there if prices are competitive with NZ. Cheese and 2,500,000 0.0%
butter imports are just starting to trend higher.
Irish Share Imports
Algeria Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 447,333 28.5% 3,813,078 22.5% 4.3% 40.5% 50.3% 0.0% 4.9%
5% 5% 0% 42% 22% 29% 37% 54% 26% 0% 0% 1% 16% 19% 43%
WMP 30,637 16.2% 258,708 9.5% 1.8% 12.9% 81.8% 0.0% 3.5%
0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 70% 72% 46% 0% 0% 1% 29% 28% 51%
SMP 23,596 38.9% 199,144 43.1% 6.2% 71.7% 16.9% 0.0% 5.2%
9% 4% 1% 90% 59% 65% 0% 33% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 4% 34%
Butter 157 125563.2% 1,443 160.6% 0.0% 0.0% 99.1% 0.0% 0.9%
69% 0% 0% 31% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 88% 100%
AMF 427 1708604.0% 3,913 42.3% 0.0% 0.0% 92.9% 0.0% 7.1%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 0%
Cheese 1,490 384.5% 18,361 7.6% 43.9% 56.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
52% 89% 36% 48% 10% 64% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Infant Formula 2,495 6.8% 21,493 42.1% 0.0% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
0% 0% 0% 92% 90% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 10% 4%
Liquid Milk 9 -0.5% 158 296.4% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 98.4%
0% 0% 0% 100% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 96% 100%
Yogurt 0 0.0% 0 143.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MPC 0 -100.0% 621 709.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Casein 162 545.0% 2,059 538.4% 13.6% 86.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 68% 100% 100% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Caseinates 0 0.0% 67 218.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 1,030 160.3% 7,106 17.2% 9.3% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.3%
0% 0% 0% 100% 78% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 94%
WPI 23 2740.6% 52 -78.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 108 -12.2% 1,582 -24.6% 0.0% 81.2% 0.0% 17.6% 1.2%
0% 0% 0% 97% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0%

August 2023
Egypt
Egypt Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Egyptian imports remain in freefall. Inflation is still Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
running near 30% and access to foreign currency re- 1,800,000 8.0%
mains difficult. The market widely expects another

1,700,000 7.0%
devaluation in the currency, although the govern- 1,600,000 6.0%
ment is trying hard to avoid it to try and limit infla-
Irish Share
1,500,000 5.0%
tion. Ireland has been picking up some market share, 1,400,000 4.0%
but it is hard to be optimistic about the country until 1,300,000 3.0%
the economy stabilises. 1,200,000 2.0%

1,100,000 1.0%
1,000,000 0.0%
May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 May-22
Irish Share Imports

Egypt Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 105,775 -41.1% 1,260,368 -28.0% 2.8% 63.1% 9.3% 8.4% 16.3%
2% 3% 2% 56% 45% 39% 20% 21% 14% 3% 12% 7% 18% 19% 38%
WMP 1,324 -44.3% 23,223 -16.2% 0.0% 61.7% 0.0% 0.0% 38.3%
0% 0% 4% 1% 1% 3% 66% 99% 72% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 20%
SMP 7,286 -33.3% 72,803 -18.8% 0.0% 76.7% 0.7% 5.8% 16.8%
0% 3% 1% 83% 55% 51% 1% 2% 1% 2% 15% 4% 14% 24% 44%
Butter 490 -85.5% 7,762 -69.9% 21.0% 45.5% 30.1% 0.0% 3.4%
21% 0% 6% 3% 0% 4% 64% 79% 38% 0% 0% 10% 12% 21% 41%
AMF 967 143.8% 9,531 -23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 95.3% 0.0% 4.7%
0% 0% 0% 8% 4% 16% 52% 96% 46% 0% 0% 0% 40% 0% 38%
Cheese 1,546 -13.6% 16,943 -45.7% 23.1% 58.0% 3.7% 1.4% 13.8%
16% 15% 15% 66% 38% 46% 5% 13% 13% 0% 17% 10% 13% 17% 15%
Infant Formula 591 -40.6% 12,145 7.8% 0.0% 92.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7%
0% 1% 3% 100% 98% 96% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Liquid Milk 26 -99.3% 1,870 -71.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
0% 0% 0% 68% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 100% 98%
Yogurt 0 -99.8% 10 -82.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 96%
MPC 767 -45.4% 11,057 -25.1% 0.0% 3.3% 16.4% 63.5% 16.9%
0% 0% 0% 11% 5% 30% 50% 10% 0% 18% 36% 45% 21% 49% 26%
Casein 19 -86.0% 747 -27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Caseinates 0 0.0% 23 -17.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 1,252 -52.2% 16,798 -39.2% 4.0% 68.4% 0.0% 18.2% 9.3%
4% 4% 0% 75% 72% 46% 0% 0% 0% 12% 3% 5% 9% 21% 50%
WPI 28 19.9% 591 26.0% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%

4% 0% 0% 19% 98% 0% 77% 2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 214 -43.3% 3,541 3.3% 0.0% 59.9% 0.0% 8.9% 31.3%
0% 0% 0% 62% 77% 100% 0% 0% 0% 38% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%

August 2023
Iraq
Iraq Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Iraqi imports surged higher in January and March, but Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
nearly all of the volume is coming from Iran. The U.S.
2,200,000 1.8%
placed sanctions on more Iraqi banks for their deal-

2,100,000 1.6%
ings with Iran, which has led to another step down in 2,000,000 1.4%
1,900,000 1.2%
the value of the Iraqi dinar. With even less access to
Irish Share
1,800,000
1.0%
foreign exchange, it is hard to be optimistic about 1,700,000
0.8%
Iraq’s dairy imports from Western countries. 1,600,000
1,500,000 0.6%
1,400,000 0.4%
1,300,000 0.2%
1,200,000 0.0%
Irish Share Imports

Iraq Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 149,607 11.7% 2,121,667 30.5% 0.1% 9.0% 0.4% 0.1% 90.5%
0% 0% 0% 12% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 88% 90% 90%
WMP 708 146.5% 5,745 66.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%
SMP 2,830 46.0% 37,179 258.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 97.8%
0% 0% 0% 9% 11% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 91% 89% 99%
Butter 327 -2.4% 4,095 23.6% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 89.1%
0% 0% 0% 23% 25% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 77% 75% 67%
AMF 162 151.5% 1,879 45.3% 0.0% 79.1% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9%
0% 0% 0% 100% 83% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0%
Cheese 8,385 -10.6% 190,982 40.8% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.2% 90.4%
0% 0% 0% 10% 9% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 90% 91% 91%
Infant Formula 1,562 -21.6% 20,229 15.0% 1.7% 88.7% 6.9% 0.0% 2.7%
4% 3% 3% 85% 58% 72% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 36% 24%
Liquid Milk 19,174 9.0% 229,428 -17.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3%
0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% 99% 98%
Yogurt 1,596 0.6% 20,229 -5.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 100% 99% 100%
MPC 437 77.6% 3,496 -8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%
Casein 0 0.0% 20 666567% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Caseinates 0 0.0% 11 -90.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 4 -93.3% 323 -56.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
WPI 0 0.0% 1 161.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 0 -99.3% 24 -69.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

August 2023
Kuwait
Kuwait Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Imports have continued to trend higher. The initial esti-

mate for May imports was down 15.8% from last year,
700,000 2.5%
but that will likely be revised higher. Ireland has been

gaining market share, primarily in butter and IMF. De- 650,000 2.0%
mand in the country has been good, but they are run-
Irish Share
600,000 1.5%
ning stronger than expected and total imports may
flatten out this year. 550,000 1.0%
500,000 0.5%
450,000 0.0%
Irish Share Imports

Kuwait Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 52,357 -15.8% 644,634 18.7% 1.7% 29.0% 56.3% 1.6% 11.4%
1% 4% 2% 35% 21% 34% 6% 11% 16% 2% 1% 3% 56% 62% 45%
WMP 1,236 -35.6% 14,245 151.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 100% 99% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
SMP 3,305 71.2% 19,068 31.3% 0.0% 1.5% 87.1% 0.0% 11.4%
0% 0% 0% 35% 1% 0% 0% 0% 46% 0% 0% 0% 65% 99% 54%
Butter 320 -27.5% 5,236 14.4% 12.4% 58.2% 24.3% 0.9% 4.3%
0% 3% 0% 15% 18% 48% 64% 55% 29% 0% 0% 0% 20% 24% 23%
AMF 924 137.3% 5,015 13.1% 0.0% 9.3% 89.3% 0.0% 1.4%
0% 0% 0% 65% 10% 7% 7% 83% 57% 0% 0% 0% 28% 6% 37%
Cheese 964 -60.4% 31,491 -1.4% 0.0% 34.2% 14.8% 16.5% 34.5%
1% 3% 1% 20% 19% 20% 0% 2% 2% 5% 5% 7% 74% 71% 70%
Infant Formula 308 -44.2% 4,113 -27.2% 37.8% 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2%
27% 13% 37% 41% 45% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 31% 42% 22%
Liquid Milk 907 -73.7% 37,344 -10.9% 0.0% 97.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4%
0% 0% 0% 25% 30% 30% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 75% 70% 70%
Yogurt 46 -97.4% 24,843 13.3% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 86.5%

0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 99% 100%
MPC 8 39.8% 136 100.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Casein 0 0.0% 12 -62.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Caseinates 0 0.0% 0 -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 51 -76.0% 989 6.7% 0.0% 97.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0%

0% 89% 0% 100% 0% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 59% 0% 0% 0%
WPI 0 0.0% 17 1104.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 1 0.0% 5 -76.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

August 2023
Morocco
Morocco Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Morocco’s SMP imports remain very strong, but given Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
the parabolic rise, we have to expect some pullback
800,000 18.0%
eventually. Their economy has been running strong

750,000 16.0%
but the Central Bank has been raising interest rates to 700,000 14.0%
cool inflation. Economic growth still looks good over- 12.0%
Irish Share
650,000
10.0%
all, which should be supportive for cheese and butter 600,000
8.0%
imports. 550,000
6.0%
500,000 4.0%
450,000 2.0%
400,000 0.0%
Irish Share Imports

Morocco Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 51,777 -21.4% 737,266 12.6% 14.9% 71.7% 7.6% 1.8% 4.0%
15% 12% 5% 71% 80% 70% 7% 2% 7% 1% 1% 1% 6% 5% 18%
WMP 8 -16.9% 175 -48.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

50% 0% 0% 50% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SMP 2,542 88.1% 35,194 134.5% 22.2% 77.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23% 24% 2% 74% 76% 92% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 3% 0% 0% 4%
Butter 1,385 -20.6% 10,670 -49.5% 16.2% 40.1% 41.9% 0.0% 1.8%
23% 0% 7% 24% 15% 11% 46% 17% 21% 0% 0% 0% 7% 67% 61%
AMF 0 -100.0% 147 -76.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 9% 39% 0% 91% 61% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cheese 1,556 -29.9% 24,018 -11.5% 4.0% 88.9% 1.6% 2.8% 2.6%
2% 5% 10% 89% 93% 86% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 9% 0% 2%
Infant Formula 295 -36.3% 5,114 -3.0% 0.0% 47.4% 0.0% 0.0% 52.6%
1% 4% 1% 37% 65% 51% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% 31% 48%
Liquid Milk 1,071 126.5% 10,039 33.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 86% 100% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 0% 15%
Yogurt 36 2189.0% 430 82.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MPC 897 -55.2% 18,683 1.5% 0.0% 82.3% 0.0% 10.5% 7.2%
0% 0% 0% 89% 98% 92% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% 11% 0% 5%
Casein 165 -45.9% 3,420 19.8% 61.6% 38.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
51% 53% 33% 49% 47% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Caseinates 0 177 7.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Whey/WPC 380 -70.9% 7,286 5.3% 32.9% 54.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6%
0% 0% 2% 96% 77% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 23% 20%
WPI 0 0.0% 0 -95.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 250 1172.2% 2,115 94.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 100% 60% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%

August 2023
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
Imports have flattened out in recent months. The Milk Equivalent Imports and Irish Share (MT)
economy is still growing, but it is facing some head-
3,200,000 6.0%
winds from lower oil revenues, due to both price and

3,100,000 5.0%
production cuts. Ireland has been gaining some mar-
3,000,000
ket share with a surge of WMP in January and butter 4.0%
Irish Share
2,900,000
in April while imports of IMF have remained strong. 3.0%
2,800,000
2.0%
2,700,000
2,600,000 1.0%
2,500,000 0.0%
May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 May-22
Irish Share Imports

Saudi Arabia Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 234,750 0.2% 2,843,881 6.5% 3.5% 44.9% 20.9% 2.8% 27.8%
6% 3% 1% 28% 40% 41% 27% 20% 16% 4% 3% 5% 34% 33% 38%
WMP 7,121 16.2% 95,161 -3.1% 4.6% 18.6% 54.1% 2.9% 19.8%
12% 3% 0% 9% 12% 21% 51% 55% 35% 4% 4% 4% 25% 26% 40%
SMP 1,252 -48.6% 18,579 2.0% 0.0% 29.4% 21.6% 0.0% 49.0%
0% 0% 0% 14% 3% 37% 12% 21% 18% 0% 0% 5% 74% 76% 40%
Butter 3,202 -14.2% 38,369 11.4% 4.3% 25.3% 53.8% 1.7% 14.8%
0% 1% 0% 12% 38% 21% 67% 29% 34% 6% 0% 6% 14% 31% 39%
AMF 1,626 218.8% 10,014 33.3% 0.0% 69.4% 10.5% 0.0% 20.1%
12% 0% 0% 50% 50% 72% 25% 38% 3% 0% 0% 0% 13% 12% 25%
Cheese 17,575 -9.6% 214,037 7.4% 1.5% 51.2% 4.8% 4.9% 37.5%
3% 4% 0% 38% 46% 45% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 6% 47% 40% 41%
Infant Formula 3,019 1.8% 38,598 1.7% 19.5% 47.8% 0.0% 1.4% 31.3%
19% 11% 13% 50% 62% 50% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 30% 27% 34%
Liquid Milk 2,482 39.5% 25,216 54.1% 8.0% 35.5% 0.0% 0.3% 56.2%
16% 33% 0% 75% 39% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 28% 11%
Yogurt 11 -69.9% 257 -32.1% 6.5% 63.4% 0.0% 2.3% 27.8%

0% 0% 0% 86% 41% 44% 0% 0% 0% 6% 25% 0% 8% 34% 56%
MPC 355 109.7% 4,802 50.1% 3.4% 69.5% 26.8% 0.2% 0.1%
0% 0% 0% 33% 56% 29% 67% 26% 13% 0% 5% 11% 0% 13% 47%
Casein 359 165.8% 1,843 -9.7% 0.0% 47.0% 0.0% 0.0% 52.9%
23% 0% 0% 15% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% 0% 0%
Caseinates 102 388.3% 532 -26.2% 0.0% 62.9% 0.0% 0.0% 37.1%
0% 0% 0% 62% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 38% 99% 69%
Whey/WPC 532 -17.1% 8,241 38.8% 1.7% 84.0% 0.0% 0.1% 14.3%
3% 3% 1% 59% 55% 42% 0% 0% 4% 0% 6% 13% 38% 37% 40%
WPI 161 119.3% 2,683 -0.1% 0.0% 86.1% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 11% 0% 56% 75% 11% 6% 14% 63% 38% 0% 26% 0% 0% 0%
Lactose 449 33.2% 3,682 63.4% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
0% 0% 0% 100% 96% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%

August 2023
United Arab Emirates

UAE Opportunity Dashboard
Liquid Whey/
UAE dairy imports have been roughly steady over the

past six months. Economic growth is strong despite
2,400,000 3.5%
the Central Bank raising interests broadly in line with

2,200,000 3.0%
the U.S. Federal Reserve. Imports of Irish SMP have
2,000,000 2.5%
been improving, and Ireland has been gaining market
Irish Share
1,800,000 2.0%
share in cheese as well.
1,600,000 1.5%
1,400,000 1.0%
1,200,000 0.5%
1,000,000 0.0%
Irish Share Imports

UAE Dairy Import Summary (MT)

12 Month YoY Other
Milk Equivalent 136,815 -16.2% 2,143,659 2.1% 4.7% 28.5% 42.1% 3.2% 21.4%
3% 3% 2% 25% 19% 24% 25% 36% 30% 2% 5% 6% 45% 37% 38%
WMP 6,981 9.9% 95,083 -4.3% 0.0% 5.1% 91.7% 0.0% 3.2%
0% 0% 0% 6% 4% 1% 87% 93% 85% 0% 0% 5% 7% 3% 9%
SMP 2,848 8.1% 37,280 0.9% 13.6% 68.8% 0.0% 1.8% 15.8%
4% 12% 6% 57% 48% 44% 8% 6% 12% 0% 13% 2% 31% 21% 36%
Butter 746 -51.4% 10,820 -21.5% 0.9% 30.6% 45.5% 2.3% 20.6%
0% 0% 5% 43% 55% 31% 15% 20% 19% 0% 1% 5% 42% 24% 39%
AMF 1,154 118.3% 9,843 24.0% 0.0% 13.5% 50.3% 0.0% 36.2%
0% 0% 0% 3% 7% 7% 29% 47% 31% 0% 1% 2% 68% 45% 61%
Cheese 3,277 -36.7% 66,891 0.5% 5.6% 36.6% 7.7% 19.8% 30.3%
5% 3% 3% 24% 24% 36% 2% 6% 7% 8% 18% 11% 61% 49% 43%
Infant Formula 1,036 33.9% 13,409 42.9% 12.3% 54.0% 4.1% 0.0% 29.6%
13% 15% 22% 45% 59% 49% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 41% 26% 26%
Liquid Milk 4,249 -73.0% 164,487 -4.2% 0.0% 75.1% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9%
0% 0% 0% 18% 15% 26% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 82% 85% 74%
Yogurt 329 -91.8% 45,711 -1.4% 0.7% 20.5% 0.0% 1.0% 77.8%
0% 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 97% 97% 97%
MPC 289 -20.1% 3,093 -13.5% 0.0% 81.7% 10.8% 0.0% 7.5%
0% 0% 0% 62% 58% 72% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 38% 42% 27%
Casein 25 0.0% 59 62.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Caseinates 0 -100.0% 103 -70.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 96% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0%
Whey/WPC 475 -54.4% 9,901 -2.2% 4.2% 46.5% 0.0% 4.2% 45.0%
30% 0% 0% 66% 50% 61% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 27% 0% 50% 12%
WPI 4 -92.9% 163 -35.0% 0.0% 74.5% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0%

0% ##### 0% 2% 0% 31% 0% ##### 0% 98% ##### 69% 0% ##### 0%
Lactose 277 -19.1% 3,711 19.8% 0.0% 71.0% 0.0% 23.8% 5.2%
0% 0% 0% 82% 77% 89% 0% 0% 0% 9% 23% 11% 9% 0% 0%

August 2023
WMP Prices
Instead of stabilising as expected, WMP mar-
WMP Prices (USD/MT)
kets have continued to weaken with SGX fu-
$6,000
tures below $3,000 for August through October.
$5,500
Chinese imports have been running above last
year, product booked for Q4/Q1 remains very $5,000
light. Meanwhile the market isn’t anticipating $4,500
stronger Chinese buying until late October or
$4,000
November for product to be delivered in Q1.
$3,500
That gives other buyers a few more months to
lock-up relatively cheaply produced product. $3,000
$2,500
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
EU NZ US
Source: EEX, NZX, USDA, StoneX Calculations and Estimates
WMP Prices (USD/MT)

Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23
EU 4,308 3,974 3,617 3,631 3,639 3,645 3,816 3,750 3,660 3,730 3,786 3,846
NZ 3,283 3,175 3,268 3,222 3,038 3,193 3,145 3,060 2,950 2,940 2,990 3,090
US 5,264 4,919 4,807 4,753 4,630 4,555 4,341 4,074 4,010 3,977 4,028 4,066
Malaysia 4,446 4,316 3,800 4,043 4,084 3,759
Philipinnes 3,029 3,245 3,430 2,555 2,040 2,399
Thailand 4,107 3,905 3,537 3,511 3,504 3,505
Indonesia 3,892 3,826 3,758 3,631 3,449 3,511
Vietnam 3,641 3,576 3,438 3,878 3,642 3,433
Singapore 3,607 3,679 3,486 3,572 3,425 3,147 3,462
Japan
South Korea 5,714 5,893 4,671 5,395 4,941 5,512 6,011
Source: EEX, NZX, CME/USDA, GTT, StoneX Calculations
WMP Prices WMP Prices

$5,200 $5,700
$4,700 $5,200
$4,700
$4,200
$4,200
$3,700
$3,700
$3,200 $3,200
$2,700 $2,700
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Malaysia Philipinnes Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Singapore Japan South Korea


August 2023
SMP Prices
SMP prices have continued to drift lower as
SMP Prices (USD/MT)
product remains available across all the major
$4,900
exporters and the demand side remains weak.
$4,400
Hot weather in the U.S. and EU, and a pick-up in
demand from Latin America, seem to be giving $3,900
the market a little boost in late July, but those $3,400

factors alone aren’t enough to turn the market
$2,900
higher on a sustainable basis. We still need to
$2,400
see decent demand out of China and improved
demand in Southeast Asia, along with slower $1,900
milk production growth to start to push prices $1,400

higher.
EU NZ US
Source: EEX, NZX, CME, StoneX Calculations and Estimates
SMP Prices (USD/MT)

EU 3,056 2,919 2,718 2,796 2,586 2,631 2,710 2,606 2,640 2,728 2,765 2,833
NZ 3,063 2,850 2,800 2,685 2,730 2,835 2,805 2,473 2,580 2,690 2,725 2,805
US 3,210 3,012 2,767 2,631 2,547 2,536 2,574 2,550 2,544 2,551 2,624 2,679
Malaysia 4,047 4,230 3,680 3,610 3,415 3,146
Philipinnes 4,112 3,852 3,716 3,699 3,422 3,265
Thailand 4,144 4,362 3,705 3,659 3,622 3,392
Indonesia 4,098 4,004 3,833 3,673 3,596 3,358
Vietnam 3,529 3,378 3,163 2,951 2,961 2,785
Singapore 4,012 3,415 3,531 3,417 3,461 3,095 3,014
Japan 4,157 4,216 4,006 4,052 3,506 3,699
South Korea 3,944 4,350 4,294 3,973 3,190 3,573 3,164
Source: EEX, NZX, CME/USDA, GTT, StoneX Calculations
SMP Prices SMP Prices

$4,200 $4,300
$4,000 $4,100
$3,800 $3,900
$3,600 $3,700
$3,400 $3,500
$3,200 $3,300
$3,000 $3,100
$2,800 $2,900
$2,600 $2,700
$2,400 $2,500
$2,200 $2,300
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23


August 2023
Butter Prices
EU and Oceania prices have been steady to low-
Butter Prices (USD/MT)
er while the U.S. has moved higher. While glob-
$8,500
al import demand for butter and AMF was rela-
tively good during the first half of the year, $7,500
stronger production and weak domestic de-

$6,500
mand inside the EU is leaving more butter avail-
able for the world market and keeping some $5,500
downward pressure on prices. Hot weather and $4,500

lower than expected stocks in the U.S. have
$3,500
allowed U.S. prices to disconnect from the price
dynamics in other regions. $2,500
EU NZ US
Source: EEX, NZX, CME, StoneX Calculations and Estimates
Butter Prices (USD/MT)

EU 5,897 5,355 4,918 5,184 5,170 5,075 5,167 5,064 4,992 4,978 5,088 5,143
NZ 4,678 4,448 4,833 4,778 4,655 4,980 5,430 4,813 4,700 4,650 4,720 4,725
US 6,120 5,423 5,326 5,348 5,295 5,398 5,404 5,486 5,875 5,853 5,853 5,849
Malaysia 6,805 6,830 5,987 6,331 6,110 6,184
Philipinnes 5,497 5,632 5,619 5,227 5,442 5,478
Thailand 8,344 7,293 6,996 8,250 6,873 7,105
Indonesia 8,001 6,878 6,156 7,301 7,348 7,327
Vietnam 6,401 6,022 5,688 5,493 6,502 6,323
Singapore 7,566 7,444 7,298 7,216 6,595 6,809 7,268
Japan 7,300 7,016 6,496 6,530 6,673 5,791
South Korea 7,980 8,024 7,805 8,179 7,854 7,728 7,708
Source: EEX, NZX, CME, GTT, StoneX Calculations
Butter Prices Butter Prices

$8,000 $8,000
$7,500 $7,500
$7,000
$7,000
$6,500
$6,500
$6,000
$6,000
$5,500
$5,000 $5,500
$4,500 $5,000
$4,000 $4,500
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23


August 2023
Cheese Prices
Oceania cheese prices have reset down to more
Cheddar Cheese Prices (USD/MT)
closely match the EU and U.S. and to bring the
$6,500
stream returns into alignment with the other
$6,000
dairy products in Oceania. Decent demand has
$5,500
kept EU prices mostly steady to just a little low-
$5,000
er, but forward offers are relatively flat. U.S.
prices got very cheap in June/early July and $4,500
likely won some spot export sales. But forward $4,000
offers out of the U.S. have stayed expensive $3,500
relative to Europe which is likely limiting for- $3,000

ward sales out of the U.S. and increases the risk $2,500
of another pull back in U.S. prices. Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
EU NZ US
Source: EEX, NZX, USDA, StoneX Calculations and Estimates
Cheese Prices (USD/MT)

EU 4,902 4,513 4,073 4,225 4,261 4,347 4,275 4,234 4,231 4,223 4,276 4,330
NZ 4,956 4,938 4,969 4,735 4,378 4,543 4,856 4,288 4,425 4,440 4,456 4,524
US 4,532 4,358 4,018 4,056 4,139 3,660 3,467 3,280 4,006 4,096 4,189 4,262
Malaysia 6,459 6,126 6,027 5,815 5,964 5,777
Philipinnes 5,714 5,722 5,652 5,965 6,089 5,572
Thailand 6,691 6,552 5,757 6,156 5,731 5,902
Indonesia 7,505 7,666 7,529 7,956 6,802 6,902
Vietnam 4,270 4,777 4,698 4,723 4,573 4,399
Singapore 5,686 6,716 7,315 7,103 4,962 6,597 7,793
Japan
South Korea 9,419 9,330 22,120 7,653 8,381 8,500 8,393
Source: Trigona, USDA, CME, GTT, StoneX Calculations
Cheese Prices Cheese Prices

$7,500 $11,500
$7,000 $10,500
$6,500 $9,500
$8,500
$6,000
$7,500
$5,500
$6,500
$5,000
$5,500
$4,500 $4,500
$4,000 $3,500
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23


August 2023
FAQ/Data/Methodology
What are the “Opportunity Dashboards”?
The dashboards are supposed to give Irish exporters a quick guide to where short-term export opportunities might be. We look
at each country and determine whether we think imports for each product will trend higher, hold steady, or fall for the next 1-
6 months based on long-run and short-run trends, our expectations for imports given macroeconomic variables like GDP
growth and exchange rates and our on the ground intelligence. Then we assess whether Irish exporters have a short-term ad-
vantage to gain volume/market share. A green up-arrow on the dashboard means we think Irish exporters can increase volume
and/or market share in the next six months. A flat yellow line means we don’t see as much opportunity while a red down-
arrow means Irish exporters are likely facing headwinds like declining overall import demand, difficult price spreads or a recent
disadvantageous tariff change.
What are “Milk Equivalents”?
Milk equivalent units are supposed to represent the amount of milk that it took to produce the dairy products being exported
or imported. It allows us to sum up all of the dairy products being exports or imported into a single number to look a the big
picture in a consistent way. We calculate the milk equivalents based on a total solids approach, calculating the total tons of
milk fat, protein and other solids in each dairy product and then calculating the total amount of milk represented by those
products assuming the milk is 4.0% fat, 3.4% protein and 5.9% other solids.
What is your data source for prices in the major exporters?
The prices listed for the major exporters are either futures contract prices from exchanges in each region, if there isn’t a fu-
tures contract for the product, then the price is a widely followed reported spot price for the region. The future prices are
based on the forward curve for the futures contracts, or if there isn’t a futures curve, we statistically tie the spot price to the
futures for other dairy products. For instance, the US does not have a WMP futures contract, so the US WMP forward curve is
calculated based on the SMP and butter futures that are available in the US. The prices are generally FOB at the plant or port.
What is your data source for prices in the importing countries?
The importer prices are calculated based on the declared value of imports, divided by the quantity of imports. The prices are
generally CIF. There are instances where the calculated price is unreasonably high or low (e.g. $35,000/MT WMP), and those
are left out of the report. The import prices generally follow the export prices (at least directionally) with a lag.
Data sources
We have attempted to use official national statistics for production, import, and export data. The import/export data is sup-
plied by GlobalTradeTracker (GTT). The trade data for each country comes from their statistical agency except Vietnam. The
Vietnamese import data is “mirrored” from reported exports to the country. Import data on the “Southeast Asia Demand Sum-
mary” page only represents the 8 countries in this report.
How do you make sense out of this import table?
The left most columns show the total import volume for
the most recent month as well as the past 12 months and
the year-over-year change which allows you to see
whether recent imports are accelerating or decelerating
compared to the recent pace. The right columns show
the import share for each of the major exporters for the
current month, 3, 6, and 12 months ago. The market
share 3, 6 and 12 months ago is color coded to green if
the exporter gained market share in the most recent
month compared to the past. The more green that shows
up in a column, the more market share is being won. Due
to the seasonality in exports, the comparison to 12
months ago is the most valid for comparison purposes.

August 2023
Disclaimer:
The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors.
Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are
not necessarily indicative of future performance. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of the
FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc., a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and registered with the U.S. Commodity Fu-
tures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a futures commission merchant. All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are
made solely on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the NFA and provisionally registered with the CFTC as a swap dealer
SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and
who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political, and/or market conditions. It is not
intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of StoneX
Financial Inc. or SXM.
Neither the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. nor SXM is responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trad-
ing decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be
reliable, but is not guaranteed. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the
opinions or viewpoints of the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. or SXM.
All forecasting statements made within this material represent the opinions of the author unless otherwise noted. Factual information
believed to reliable, was used to formulate these statements of opinion; but we cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the
information being relied upon. Accordingly, these statements do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints employed by the FCM Division of
StoneX Financial Inc. or SXM. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subse-
quent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts. No assurance or guarantee is made that these forecasts will be achieved. Any
examples given are provided for illustrative purposes only, and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those examples.
StoneX Group Inc. provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-
traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable
law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of
StoneX Markets, LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC
rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a mem-
ber of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a
Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. References to securities trading are
made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c).
References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”) is regis-
tered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717]. StoneX
Financial Pte Ltd (“SFP”) (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) holds a Capital Markets Services Licence regulated by Monetary Authority of Singapore
for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for
the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. StoneX Pty Ltd (ABN: 2006580694) holds an Australian Financial Service License and
is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL: 237755). StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) is
regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Futures Contracts. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (Co. Reg. No
200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer in Precious Stones and Precious Metals with the Ministry of Law Singapore (PS20190001002)”; and
is also an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act;
and is also an appointed agent for SFL’s payments business. StoneX Financial Europe S.A. (“SFE”) is a securities trading firm registered in
the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg under Company No. RC Lux B 10821. SFE is authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance
du Secteur Financier (P00000012) to carry out, inter alia, the activities of an investment adviser, broker in financial instruments, commis-
sion agent and private portfolio manager. SFE is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. [NASDAQ: SNEX].
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August 2023

Global Dairy Market Report

Page 1 Table of Contents

Page 2 Table of Contents

Your Bord Bia Team:

Margaret Butler Joe Moore

Conor O'Sullivan, Patrick Lim

Page 3 Table of Contents

Year Over Year Change

Production ('000 MT)

some buyers off the sidelines. But in general, demand

Page 4 Table of Contents

Year Over Year Change

Production ('000 MT)

IE Milk Equivalent Exports Ireland Farm Gate Milk Price

2,500 800 0.57

IE Dairy Exports (MT, Extra-EU Shipments)

WMP 3,046 666.5% 13,639 -42.8% MPC 18 37 -79.3%

Page 5 Table of Contents

Year Over Year Change

Production ('000 MT)

pected to fall below year ago in Q4 as we lap over 2% 11,000

EU-28 Milk Equivalent Exports EU-27 Gross Dairy Margin

SEA/MENA ('000 MT)

EU-27 + UK Dairy Exports (MT, Extra-EU Shipments)

Page 6 Table of Contents

United States Supply

Year Over Year Change

Production ('000 MT)

US Milk Equivalent Exports US Gross Dairy Margin

16,000 4,000 $13.00

US Dairy Exports (MT)

Page 7 Table of Contents

New Zealand Supply

Year Over Year Change

Production ('000 MT)

year and well above average which should generate 1,000

NZ Milk Equivalent Exports

NZ Dairy Exports (MT)

Page 8 Table of Contents

Year Over Year Change

Production ('000 MT)

component adjusted production up 1.9%. Like in New 600

the season. Back in March, we were forecasting the 200

AU Milk Equivalent Exports Victoria Australia Cost of Production and Farm

All Destinations SE Asia MENA

AU Dairy Exports (MT)

WMP 2,317 -22.9% 21,518 -51.3% MPC 33 22.7% 276 -67.0%

Page 9 Table of Contents

Year Over Year Change

Production ('000 MT)

AR Milk Equivalent Exports AR Gross Dairy Margin

AR Dairy Exports (MT)

WMP 6,701 -29.3% 124,794 -23.7% MPC 0 0

Page 10 Table of Contents

China Economy Leading Indicator China Consumer Confidence Index

Source: CEIC Source: OECD

China, Real GDP Growth, YoY